...Oh, here's where all the sluggers are hiding. (Hot Stove Preview)

As promised, a peak at the most mouthwatering Hot Stove trade targets...

1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody

Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder.  Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.

It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs.  There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter.  I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better.  The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung.  The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.

With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year.  However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players.  If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries.  The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price.  They also have already made a significant time investment.  They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader.  Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres

Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers

A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race.  However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day.  It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing.  In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day.  If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011.  It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.

Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him.  It could also limit his trade market.  Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental.  Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.

If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved.  San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick

3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals

Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds

I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire.  While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention.  Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency.  Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense.  Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.

Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter.  And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension.  I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson

4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers

I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason.  For starters, his agent is Scott Boras.  We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player.  There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday.  In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI.  He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better).  He's kept his weight in check.  He's shown great leadership.  And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!

He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it.  He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market).  So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.

Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,

Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?).  For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton.  At last, you're ready to pull the trigger.  You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business.  So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...

...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch!  "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"

Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power.  When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010.  He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him.  He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).

Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running.  In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.)  He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home).  He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically.  And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.

Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds.  But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career.  Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood

Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...

6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets

Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start.  It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated.  Is he healthy?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash

7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres

Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th.  Bell's market will never be better than it is right now.  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill

8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals

Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career.  He's got one more year before free agency.  This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental.  Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore

9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels

He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young.  Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen

10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays

Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career.  He can be had for a song.  The question is, even then, is he worth it?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler

Fantastic Thoughts: Bossman Jr.'s Got His Groove Back?

There are perhaps no more tantalizing talents in major-league baseball than the Upton brothers.  They've got it all: the sweet, smooth swings which translate into awesome power, gliding, seemingly effortless speed, shoulder-mounted outfield canons, and Grade A boy-next-door handsomeness.  To the great frustration of fantasy owners who've been seduced by their "tools," however, neither Upton has yet posted anything resembling an MVP-caliber season.  Most of the milestones we associate with top-flight players - 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 900+ OPS - have not yet been reached by either of them, to our great dismay.

Justin Upton can, perhaps, be forgiven, since, at the ripe old age of 22, his "most similar batters" by age list (according to Baseball Reference) still includes guys like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Miguel Cabrera.  Already nearing the completion of his third full season in the majors, his maturing process is still light-years ahead of the average "top prospect."

His elder brother, however, though hardly past his prime at the age of 26, has logged more than four full seasons and suffered through consecutive years of declining production in 2008 and 2009.  When B. J. Upton was hitting just .226 with 8 HR and a 703 OPS on August 1, many were ready to declare him a one-dimensional player with a skill set somewhere between Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras.  Upton was again on pace to be among the league leaders in steals and remained one the best defensive centerfielders in the league, but his overall offensive production had reconciled him to the very bottom of the Rays lineup, and he was again looking a possible declines in most of the counting categories.  This was a far cry from the guy who mashed 7 HR and drove in 15 runs in just 11 games during Tampa Bay's 2008 run to the World Series or the guy who batted .300 with 26 HR and 82 RBI in just 129 games in 2007.

B. J. has been prone to streakiness throughout his career, so one cannot read too much into this limited sample size, but for the last six weeks, Upton has again been showing the skills which made him the #2 pick in the draft way back in 2002.  Since the beginning of August he's hit 9 HR, including four in his last five games, meaning that, with 17 HR on the season, this is his best power year since '07.  Over that span he's also hitting .273 with an 897 OPS, while continuing to run like crazy, with 11 steals in 12 attempts.

Unfortunately, his K/BB ratio is still a major source of concern.  B. J. is probably always going to be somewhat prone to the whiff, something common for a guy with some serious power, but over the first two seasons of his career, his K/BB rate was a respectable 1.78 and his OBP was excellent (.384).  In the last two years, he has struck out more, while walking substantially less, causing his K/BB ratio to rise to 2.53, while his OBP has fallen all the way to Jason Kendall territory (.319).  Even during his recent hot streak, Upton has not dramatically improved in this department, striking out 44 times in 37 games and walking only 16.  As such, I fear this production may not be representative of him "figuring things out" finally, as Delmon Young clearly has in 2010, but rather he might be benefitting from the fact that pitchers stopped respecting him.  When they are reminded of what he can do with balls in his wheelhouse (i.e. four homers in five days) they will go back to throwing everything off the plate and, unless he then demonstrates a newfound ability to lay off that junk, his power will go right back into remission.

Those who remember Minnesota's loss to the Yankees in last season's division series, will recall that New York's pitchers seemed to be able to retire Young on command.  He struck out five times in a dozen at-bats and left seven men on base in three games.  He certainly wasn't the only weak link in Minnesota's lineup, but he was the most glaring one, because unlike Nick Punto and Brendan Harris, he was supposed to be in there for his superior abilities at the plate (it certainly wasn't for his glovework).  This very public humiliation clearly stuck with Young and he came into camp this season not only in better shape, but with a more refined approach.

Hitters the caliber of Young and Upton do not necessarily need to be walk machines like Adam Dunn.  Quite to the contrary, players like Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, and Carlos Gonzalez have proven that the hyper-aggressive approach can work, if you've got the superior skills for it.  But, nobody can consistently hit balls well outside the strike zone.  When Young realized that, he didn't dramatically increase his walk rate.  This year he's walking 4.2% of the time, compared to 4.0% from '06-'09.  However, he did dramatically decrease his strikeout rate, down from 22.1% in '09 (and 18.8% on his career) to 12.7% in 2010.  Every time I see Delmon lay off a two-strike breaking ball in the dirt or a fastball at his eyes, I get a little amped about the possible rematch between the Yankees and Twins this October.  He could change the face of that series.

I certainly hope that Delmon Young's breakout season has proven that it's silly to declare top prospect "done" in his mid-twenties. B. J. Upton, I believe, will eventually return, at the very least, to the modicum of discipline he displayed in the early stages of his professional career.  However, he needs to keep producing for another couple months before I'm ready to believe he's finally figured that out.

Fantastic Questions: "How good are the Upton brothers?"

We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up.  Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary.  As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...

Are the Uptons worth it?

Upton the Younger knows very well how Jason Heyward is feeling right now.  The D-Backs rushed him to the majors in the waning months of the 2007 season, when he was just 19-years-old, billed as the best prospect since Alex Rodriguez.  Still only 22, Justin Upton appears on the verge of living up to all the hype.  He'll be drafted by the middle of the second round, if not earlier, and if you want him in an auction league, you had better be prepared to pay $30 at least.  

He'll be the only hitter in that price class who has never driven in a hundred runs, never scored a hundred runs, never hit thirty homers, or stolen thirty bases.  Those who pick him do so with they expectation that this will be the first year of many where he reaches at least two or three of those milestones. 

If you are in a keeper league, Upton, like Heyward, is a bargain at almost any price.  However, in yearly leagues, $30 is a lot to pay for a guy whose '09 numbers are not that much better than guys who'll be available for half that price: Carlos Lee, Brad Hawpe, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I'm an Upton believer.  I'm a Heyward believer as well, but players who aren't named Pujols simply don't post MVP-caliber numbers in their early twenties.  Check out these lines from a few Hall of Fame outfielders at age 22:

Hank Aaron .328 AVG, 106 R, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 2 SB

Barry Bonds .261 AVG, 99 R, 25 HR, 59 RBI, 32 SB

Ken Griffey Jr. .308 AVG, 83 R, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB

Frank Robinson .269 AVG, 90 R, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 10 SB

Hopefully that gives you a sense of how extraordinary it would be for Justin Upton to go .300-100-30-100-30 this season, something I think many of his owners are unfairly expecting he will do.  I think .280-90-25-90-20 is far more likely, and that would still be an outstanding line at his age, but not worth more than $20-$25 or a third or fourth round selection.

It's hard to see Justin rivalng the production of Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, or Matt Holliday...this year.

While Justin is likely to be consistently, if not fairly, priced in the $30-$35 range, his brother, B. J. Upton, is going all over the map.  I've seen winning bids from $12-$28 in auctions and in mock drafts I've seen him picked as high as round five and as low as round twelve.

Offseason Prospectus #23: The Arizona Diamondbacks

With the combo of Manny and Big Papi forcefully divorced, and, to some extent, ravaged by the tides of time, it is logical to ask the question afresh, what is the most fearsome tandem in baseball?  Texeira & A-Rod would no doubt be the choice of a vocal minority.  But, good as they are, do they really match up to Pujols & Holliday, Mauer & Morneau, Utley & Howard, or, my personal favorite, Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder?  All have a legitimate claim, and not too far back of them are duos like Lance Berkman & Carlos Lee, Victor Martinez & Kevin Youkilis, and Derrek Lee & Aramis Ramirez.

I predict, however, assuming the D-Backs can retain their investments, within the next year or two, there will again be a clear answer to that question, as Justin Upton & Mark Reynolds develop into the premier run-producing duo of the twenty-teens.  In 2009 the pair broke out in a major way, combining for 70 HR, 188 RBI, 44 SB, and, just to keep their youth in perspective, 360 K.  Tremendous production, despite the fact that Upton missed a month in the middle of the season and both appeared weary down the stretch (706 September OPS for Upton, 610 for Reynolds).  But inconsistency is to be expected from a pair whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyer's (47).

Upton, still only 22-years-old, seems (knock on wood) destined to become the toast of his generation, his career path thusfar comparing favorably to guys like Griffey, Mays, Aaron, and Bonds.  When I watch Upton, I can't help but see a young, right-handed Bonds: the upright stance, the short, lightning-quick stroke, and, perhaps most of all, the eery calm.  Reynolds's aspirations aren't quiet so high, but it is reasonable to expect his potential as a hitter falls somewhere between Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, not too shabby in either case, and he has much more speed and, at least for now, plays a scarcer position than either of them.

The D-Backs will begin the season with high expectations.  It is reasonable to believe that this club is at least as good as the one that made the playoffs in 2007, as it is still filled with players who have not peaked.  That, combined with the fact that nobody in the NL West got significantly better this offseason, makes Arizona a darkhorse contender, albeit one that will need a fair number of good breaks.

The Next Generation (Part One)

A recent post from ESPN fantasy analyst Eric Karabell applauds Justin Upton's recent prolonged hot streak by saying, "Honestly, in a keeper league he's someone I'd target on a similar level to the top young players in the game, like Matt Wieters and David Price."

One would be tempted to gather from such a sentence construction that Karabell is saying something unusual or insightful, when in fact, this has to be seen as an incredible understatement. For one thing, the phrase "similar to the top young players in the game" is highly misleading. The necessity of declaring "similarity" would suggest that Upton is either older than said players or less likely to be considered "top." Justin Upton, despite the fact that he has nearly two full years more major league experience, is, in fact, two full years younger than either Price or Wieters, born August 25, 1987, whereas Price was born August 26, 1985 and Weiters on May 21 of that year. Both Price and Wieters, of course, elected to play college ball, which may or may not have delayed their development as major-leaguers, thus making them seem younger, when quite the opposite true.

So, the question is, what does Karabell mean by "top." Both Upton and Price were #1 overall draft picks (Wieters was #5) and the arrival of all three was highly anticipated. Each was handed a starting job (or closing job in the case of Price in 2008) upon arrival and all must be feeling the pressure of spectacular expectations. But while Wieters draws comparisions with Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench, and Price with C. C. Sabathia and John Smoltz, Upton has been forced to reconcile himself with a trio of outfielder who also entered the majors in their late teens (or very early twenties) with "five-tool" skills and went on to become arguably three of best to ever play the game: Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Ken Griffey Jr. Hype doesn't get any bigger than that.

My point is, Upton has flown under the radar recently because he plays in Arizona, because he battled injuries last season, and because he isn't the most recent call-up, but don't be tempted to rate him in any "level of young players" other than one unto himself (witness the 500-foot homerun he hit early in May). Since April 24th, when he ended a prolonged slump with a double off Tim Lincecum, Justin is hitting .373 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, 6 SB, and a 1153 OPS in 35 games. Mind you, at the age of 21. While Wieters ans Price very well may become perennial All-Stars, Justin Upton very well may be the future of game, dominating our perception of the sport the way Mays did in the 50s and 60s, Griffey did in the 90s, and Bonds did for most of this decade.

Down on the Upton

As I was watching Ubaldo Jimenez mow through D-Backs today, I had the distinct displeasure of listening to a couple of homer-happy Colorado broadcasters lay into Justin Upton, who, to be fair, looked just as bad as anybody in the Arizona lineup against what may be the best stuff in the NL (98 MPH heater, 85 MPH change, nasty slider and curve). Arizona may have done a disservice in bringing Justin to the bigs at the age of 19 with the hype that he was the second-coming of Ken Griffey Jr. However, I not so sure that he isn't. One must remember that Upton is still only 21. At an age when most "top prospects" are just beginning to climb the minor league ladder, Upton is in his third major-league season. When Griffey Jr. was 20, he had an 847 OPS. Upton's OPS last season was 814. Upton showed could plate discipline in his brief minor-league career, but has not quite translated it to the big leagues. Last season he struck out 121 times in just over 400 plate appearances. But he was also dealing with injuries, and he still hit 15 HR and had a respectable .353 OBP (that was third-highest among D-Back regulars, by the way). We're going to see some slumps still and I'm not sure he's ready to match the 100 RBI and 926 OPS Junior Griffey put up in his "junior" season, but Upton is very much on the verge of his breakout campaign. He may benefit from Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Tony Clark, and Chad Tracy cutting into his playing time because it encourages Bob Melvin to give him occasional days off, especially against tough righthanders. Look for Upton to hit around .275 this year, with a .375 OBP, 20+ HR, and an OPS around 850. That's pretty good for a guy bought his first beer less than eight months ago.

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

April Showers bring NEW Bold Predictions

LaRussa's Mad Science:

I should really know better by now. I lived in St. Louis for six years, during which Tony LaRussa took the Cardinals to the playoffs four times, including an 105 win season and an NL Championship in 2004, when nobody (even St. Louis fans) expected the Cards would finish higher than 3rd place in the NL Central. Last year the Cardinals stayed in contention until the final two weeks of the season, even though nobody other than Pujols drove in more than 70 runs or scored more than 58. By comparison, the two teams they were chasing, the Cubs and Brewers, each had at least four players who eclipsed those numbers in both categories. What's more perplexing? St. Louis also had by far the worst team ERA of any of the three franchises. Yet somehow the Cardinals finished only seven games back, even after they lost 14 of 16 in mid-September.

Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan are the only managerial team in baseball (sorry Bobby Cox) with seemingly magical abilities. Let me just list a few players that they've transformed in the last decade:

Chris Carpenter - SP - Had a .500 record, an ERA over 4.50, and had just missed a full season before arriving in St. Louis. Since then he has gone 51-18 and won a Cy Young.

Woody Williams - SP - He went 45-22 with the Cardinals, 87-94 everywhere else.

Matt Morris - SP - Hasn't had a winning record or an ERA under 4.90 since leaving St. Louis, where he once posted five straight winning seasons, averaging 16 wins a year during that span.

Sure they've had some tough cases as well (Anthony Reyes, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, etc.), but in general they patch together pitching staffs and lineups from players that other teams have castaway (besides Carpenter and Williams, they've gotten significant contributions in recent years from Joel Pineiro, Jeff Weaver, Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, and Todd Wellemeyer).

If St. Louis remains in contention all year, this will be, undoubtedly, their most impressive performance yet. They are already making me regret picking them to finish last in the division. Right now, LaRussa has a quartet of outfielders batting better than .311. Their names? No, not Walker, Edmonds, Sanders, and Encarnacion. Not even Ankiel. Their names are Schumaker, Ludwick, Duncan, and Barton. Add in Ankiel, Glaus, and Prince Albert and you've got a lineup that is 5th in the NL in scoring. It's early and I highly doubt these guys can continue this pace, but St. Louis had Colby Rasmus waiting at AAA, so if even one or two of these guys proves to be for real, they could have a very respectable outfield by the end of the season.

More surprisingly, perhaps, the Cardinals are 4th in the NL in ERA, despite having a patchwork staff which includes seven pitchers who have made multiple appearances as both relievers and starters during the last two seasons. Versatility may be nice from one or two guys, but it generally doesn't suggest an impressive corps, since going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation usually means a player hasn't been particularly good at either. Yet, somehow, LaRussa and Duncan, have quietly made Ryan Franklin, who pitched 190+ innings as a starter for three season sin Seattle, into one of the league's best set-up men (32 Holds and an ERA under 3.00 in 90 innings over the last two seasons). They've converted Braden Looper, who hadn't made a start in eight full major league seasons, into a solid inning-eater at the backend of the rotation (15-13 with 190 IP in 34 starts). And they're looking to Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Anthony Reyes to make similar transformations (so far the trio is 4-1 with 3 QS, 1 SV, 2 HLD, and an ERA around 3.50).

I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will outlast the surgin, power-packed Cubs or the young, talented Brewers, but if St. Louis finishes over .500 in third place with this group of players, LaRussa will deserve another Manager of the Year award.

The Baby Backs:

Matthew Berry, ESPN's Talented Mr. Roto, whose self-deprecating fantasy advice I usually enjoy and often agree with, recently predicted that Justin Upton, despite his hot start will only finish with about 25 HR and a .275 average (he's currently hitting .368 with 5 HR). While I understand his justification. The league will adjust and the 20-year-old Upton will suffer some slumps as the season progresses, I think you need to moderate this assumption with a player of Upton's caliber. Remember, Upton struggled under prolonged exposure to the league at the end of last season, but made successful adjustments in the postseason (1097 OPS) which he's carried over into this year. The Diamondbacks made a wise decision in sticking with him last year and they're reaping the benefits now. The proper comparison for Upton is not to guys like Jeff Francoeur, Rick Ankiel, and Troy Tulowitski, who are susceptible to sophomore slumps, but to Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, and Miguel Cabrera, who were not. Cabrera hit 33 HR with 112 RBI in his first full year. In Arizona's lineup, where Upton is currently batting 6th and is not expected to be the dominant force, such numbers are not unreasonable. Remember, one of the things (there are many) which separates Upton from his teammate, Mark Reynolds, and guys like Ankiel and Francoeur, is his control of the strike zone. Don't get me wrong, he's going to strikeout, but it isn't going to be consistently on pitches way out of the zone. No matter how NL hurlers approach him, they will have to throw him strikes.

Reynolds, also off to a very hot start, is something of a different story. He's looking great right now, but last year his K to BB ratio was almost 4:1. At one point, he struck out in ten consecutive at-bats. He's averaging more than one strikeout a game even during his hot streak. Reynolds is going to go cold much more often than Upton and his position is not nearly as secure since the D-Backs will have Chad Tracy coming back soon. Sure, there are plenty of studs like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn to strike out as much as Reynold does, but even when they are slumping, as Dunn has been recently, they get on base via the walk. Reynold hasn't shown his ability to do that yet and until he does, he's risky business.

Finally, I'll conclude my discussion of the Baby Backs with Chris Young. Superficially, one would say he looks pretty consistent. Last year he hit .237 with 32 HR, 27 SB, 147 K. This year he is on pace for .227 with 40 HR , 24 SB, and 168 K. Great numbers, but the average and strikeouts aren't what you'd look for from a leadoff man. There is a difference though, Young has raised his OBP to a very respectable .348, more than fifty points higher than last season, by drawing more walks. Young is probably never going to hit .300, but a .350 OBP with 40/40 potential and top-tier centerfield defense is damn admirable.

Prospecting

Fantasy baseball junkies are dangerously nearing overdose after the surprising injection of young talent in early August, especially Justin Upton (Diamondbacks), Adam Jones (Mariners), and Delwyn Young (Dodgers). Milwaukee has three rookies playing every day and another in the rotation. Detroit is calling up Jordan Tata. Danny Richar's playing everyday in Chicago. Lastings Milledge is back with the Mets. Billy Butler has joined the Royals. Even the Yankees are supporting cheap labor in the form of Phil Hughes. All of these teams, with the exception of Butler's Royals, are in the thick of pennant races, which suggest a change in the accepted "book," which suggested you didn't introduce a rookie in the second half unless you had a catastrophic injury or were completely out of it. The season-making performances of midseason callups like Jeff Francoeur, Russell Martin, and Jered Weaver in recent years no doubt have something to do with changing the thinking of general managers around the league. While there was a great deal of activity at this years trade deadline, it will be interesting to see whether the Indians get as much out of Kenny Lofton down the stretch as Arizona gets out of Upton, or Seattle gets out of Jones. Will Kyle Kendrick outperform Kyle Lohse in Philadelphia? We may see more rookies in August. We will definitely see more rookies in September, when the rosters expand. Here are some names you might not recognize (you won't find Felix Pie or Philip Humber on this list), but who will be known by fantasy junkies by next spring at the latest.

Steven Pearce - 1B - Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates traded for Adam LaRoche last year, giving up Mike Gonzalez, as well as Brent Lillibridge (SS) and Jamie Romak (OF). Both Lillibridge and Romak have put together good minor league seasons. In fact, if the Braves weren't so loaded with middle infield talent, we would probably see Lillibridge in the majors this year. As usual, the Braves came away from this trade a winner, even though Mike Gonzalez is going to miss a year to injury. LaRoche has struggled with the Pirates. He is significantly off the pace he set during a career year in Atlanta in 2006, over a hundred points off in Slugging Percentage, and forty points in Batting Average. He is dead last among NL first basemen in AVG, SLG, OBP, runs, hits, and RBI. But, perhaps more importantly, in a move common to the Pirates of the last decade, this thoroughly mediocre veteran is blocking their best young talent. After setting an assortment of school records during two seasons at the University of South Carolina, Steven Pearce has moved quickly through the minor leagues, scorching at every stop. This year he has made three stops - High A, AA, and AAA - with a combined .338 average and a 1.046 OPS. After hitting .357 with 2 HR in his first 9 games with the AAA Indianapolis Indians, it seems reasonable to expect that Pearce will get a good long look in Pittsburgh this September.

Rick Ankiel - OF - St. Louis Cardinals

He was subject to perhaps the most infamous big-league meltdown in baseball history, challenged only by Chuck Knoblauch in recent memory. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year balloting in 2000, Ankiel was completely unable to find the plate and set a postseason record for wild pitches. Now he's back, at the age of 27, but as a rightfielder with outstanding athleticism, a 95-mph canon, and impressive power. But, still thinking like a pitcher, he believes everything is a strike. At AAA Memphis this season he has slugged 32 HR and 89 RBI in only 101 games. He's also struck out 88 times and drawn only 24 walks. This is indicative of an all-or-nothing Rob Deer-esque power hitter. Such a player might be valuable to the depleted Cardinals, who need to focus their free agent dollars on pitching, especially if Ankiel can develop just enough plate discipline to make himself more Adam Dunn-esque.

Kevin Slowey - SP - Minnesota Twins

Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, and Scott Baker are on everybody's radar because of they are being groomed at the major league level this season. However, Slowey was 3-0 for the Twins during a seven start cup of coffee in the first half. His ERA was nonetheless 5.84, so he must of benefited from some Morneau-sized run support. However, back in the minors he has gone 8-3, with a 1.89 ERA, and seven times as many strikeouts as walks (84/12). Minnesota is only six games out. They have an interesting remaining schedule. 21 games against the White Sox, Rangers, and Royals, teams they should be able to handle. And, 18 games against the Mariners, Indians, and Tigers, the teams they will presumably be chasing. If the Twins get within striking distance, look for Slowey to replace Carlos Silva.

Sean Gallagher, Jeff Zamardzija, Mark Holliman - SP - Chicago Cubs

Gallagher is probably the only of these three that might be legitimately major league ready, and I wouldn't be taking a flier on any of them in my fantasy league. However, I leave you with this reasoning: Do you think the Cubs believe that there will be two consecutive World Series winners who consider Jason Marquis a quality fifth starter? Over the last three seasons, in the second half Jason Marquis is 10-20 with an ERA around 6.00. Lou Pinella has been complaining that he doesn't have a long reliever (a.k.a. Mop-up Man). He sure does. He just has him in the rotation.