...Oh, here's where all the sluggers are hiding. (Hot Stove Preview)

As promised, a peak at the most mouthwatering Hot Stove trade targets...

1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody

Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder.  Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.

It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs.  There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter.  I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better.  The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung.  The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.

With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year.  However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players.  If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries.  The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price.  They also have already made a significant time investment.  They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader.  Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres

Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers

A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race.  However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day.  It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing.  In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day.  If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011.  It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.

Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him.  It could also limit his trade market.  Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental.  Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.

If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved.  San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick

3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals

Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds

I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire.  While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention.  Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency.  Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense.  Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.

Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter.  And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension.  I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson

4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers

I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason.  For starters, his agent is Scott Boras.  We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player.  There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday.  In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI.  He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better).  He's kept his weight in check.  He's shown great leadership.  And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!

He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it.  He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market).  So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.

Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,

Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?).  For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton.  At last, you're ready to pull the trigger.  You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business.  So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...

...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch!  "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"

Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power.  When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010.  He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him.  He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).

Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running.  In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.)  He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home).  He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically.  And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.

Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds.  But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career.  Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood

Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...

6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets

Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start.  It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated.  Is he healthy?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash

7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres

Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th.  Bell's market will never be better than it is right now.  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill

8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals

Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career.  He's got one more year before free agency.  This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental.  Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore

9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels

He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young.  Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen

10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays

Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career.  He can be had for a song.  The question is, even then, is he worth it?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler

Offseason Prospectus #21: The San Diego Padres

At the All-Star Break last season, I preemptively declared the Padres the worst team in baseball.  At the time the Padres were in the midst of a seven game losing streak and a particularly rough stretch in which they went 13-37.  However, San Diego really turned things around down in the final two months, going 37-25, despite the fact that they shipped away Jake Peavy, Scott Hairston, Chad Gaudin, and Jody Gerut and got zero production out of injured veterans Brian Giles, Cliff Floyd, and Chris Young.

The secret of San Diego's success, besides a monster season from Adrian Gonzalez, was the emergence of a quartet of young hitters.  A 22-year-old first-baseman turned outfielder named Kyle Blanks posted a .514 slugging percentage in a third of a season.  Right around the time I was making my ill-fated prediction, the Padres installed Wil Venable in right field full time, after which hit a dozen homers and managed a respectable 814 OPS.  They also installed a 22-year-old Rule 5 pick at shortstop, Everth Cabrera, and although he was clearly in a bit over his head at first, he also had his share of hot streaks, playing well enough to become the Padres full-time starter going into 2010.  And, they gave Tony Gwynn Jr. his first shot at a starting job (after three years riding the pine in Milwaukee).  Gwynn also ran a little hot and cold, but he's disciplined (48 BB/65 K), speedy, and plays great defense in the spacious centerfield of Petco Park.

Things went so well down the stretch in 2009 that San Diego fans have every reason to be optimistic this spring.  However, I'm going to stick to my guns.  Although I like some of the Padres talent, Blanks and Cabrera particularly, I still don't think there's enough of it, and the youngsters are going to suffer the usual growing pains in their first full season as regulars.  Moreover, the Padres ownership appears to be in desperate financial straits, eager to unload anybody who's making more than the minimum.  First it was Peavy.  Most recently it was Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was due for a somewhat sizable arbitration award and got shipped to Oakland last week.  And rumors continue to circle that A-Gonz and Heath Bell may soon follow.  If that happens (and maybe even if it doesn't), San Diego's payroll will sink below the level that the Marlins recently got chastised for.  It's hard to compete that way (although Florida does a decent job of it) and the NL West is pretty tough.  Although Petco will alway be a great place to see a ballgame, I expect it to be a very long season for the Padres faithful.

BBA Awards Ballot: MVP (NL)

There have been some nice moments in the BBA Awards so far. Voters have shown a strong inclination to look past the standings. Of the four player awards thusfar, none has gone to a player on a playoff team. Most recently, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke grabbed the highest honor for pitchers, despite the fact that neither won more than sixteen games.

The MVP, however, is the one award I believe should take into account team success, as well as individual numbers. This isn't to say that Ryan Braun and Adam Lind aren't legitimate candidates just because they played on losing teams, merely that when they are compared to men with similar statistics on winning teams, they fall slightly behind.

I also believe that the MVP award should go to a position player. Not that Greinke and Lincecum aren't extraordinarily "valuable," but pitcher's have their own award and there needs to be some credit given to those guys that grind it out every day, both at the plate and in the field. As such, defense is also a major factor when it comes to my MVP voting, which is why I favor stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which account for fielding as well as hitting.

Unfortunately, the MVP races aren't very close this year. Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer are, deservedly, runaway favorites. I believe that, were anybody else to win, it would be a bit of a travesty, so the main question for me was how to fill out the rest of my ballot and which league provided the most interesting group of second and third tier candidates to discuss. There were some very interesting arguments to be made on both sides, but my discussion of the AL is just going to have to wait until November. Here is my NL ballot:

10. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres
.277/.407/.551, 90 R, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, 4.3 UZR, 6.4 WAR
9. Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs
.306/.393/.579, 91 R, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, 3.4 UZR, 5.3 WAR
8. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals
.292/.364/.525, 110 R, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 2 SB, 17.9 UZR, 7.1 WAR

The bottom third of my ballot was reserved for players whose teams were bad, but whose seasons weren't. The Padres, Cubs, and Nats would've been much worse off without the efforts of these gentlemen. Z-pack and D-Lee both bounced back to prove they were still superstar-caliber players after mediocre, injury-plagued seasons in '08. Zimmerman deserves Gold Glove consideration for his efforts at the hot corner. Gonzo improved his power numbers for the fourth consecutive season, despite playing in spacious Petco Park (28 of his dingers came on the road). He's still just 27. The Padres have him signed through 2011 for an amazingly affordable rate ($11.25 Million total for the next two seasons). He will likely be the cream of the 2012 free agent class.

7. Matt Kemp - CF - Los Angeles Dodgers
.297/.352/.490, 97 R, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 34 SB, 3.2 UZR, 5.1 WAR
6. Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies
.297/.377/.552, 101 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB, -0.6 UZR, 5.5 WAR
5. Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
.330/.387/.556, 79 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, -4.6 UZR, 5.1 WAR

Three superb youngsters hold down the middle third of my ballot. Tulowitzki and Kemp are just 25, while Kung Fu Panda is merely 23. All three elevated their already impressive games in '09. Andre Ethier had slightly better power number and some memorable walk-off hits for the Dodgers, but Kemp was really what made their offense tick. He's probably a lock for 30/30 for the next several years and he has become one of the league's finest centerfielders. Tulowitzki defensive wizardry wasn't quite up to the standard he set in 2007, but he still made just nine errors, trailing only Jimmy Rollins. He took a major step forward on offense, however, becoming the Rockies top hitter. He joins three Rs - Rollins, Ramirez, and Reyes - among premier shortstops going into 2010. The depth of the Giants offensive problems are probably best demonstrated by the fact that Pablo Sandoval batted third in the order, got over 600 plate appearances, racked up an OPS of 943 (7th best in the NL), and still scored only 79 runs. New San Francisco mantra: "Strand-a Pand-a."

4. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins
.342/.410/.543, 101 R, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB, 0.3 UZR, 7.3 WAR
3. Chase Utley - 2B - Philadelphia Phillies
.282/.397/.508, 112 R, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, 12.0 UZR, 7.7 WAR
2. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
.299/.412/.602, 103 R, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 2 SB, 0.2 UZR, 6.7 WAR

These guys have all been in this position before and, probably, will be again, looking up at King Albert.

Ryan Howard got a lot of press this year for slimming down and playing better defense, but Prince Fielder did the exact same thing, bringing his UZR up to average from -8.5 in 2008 (which was the best of his career until this season). Howard and Fielder appear, superficially, to be very similar players, but Fielder walks more and strikes out less, perhaps contributing to his much higher averages, and he doesn't suffer the annual month-long growing pains in April. Fielder is still just 25 and is consistently underrated. In my mind, he is already a superior player to Howard, Texeira, Gonzalez, and Morneau.

1. Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
.327/.443/.658, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1.2 UZR, 8.4 WAR

What more needs be said? He's the best player in baseball, has been for about five seasons now and it doesn't look like he's becoming the least bit complacent.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Braun LF (MIL), Ryan Howard 1B (PHI), Andre Ethier LF (LAD), Jayson Werth RF (PHI), Justin Upton RF (ARZ)

AL MVP Ballot (had I swung that way): 10. Franklin Gutierrez CF (SEA), 9. Derek Jeter SS (NYY), 8. Mark Texeira 1B (NYY), 7. Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B (BOS), 6. Victor Martinez C/1B (BOS), 5. Chone Figgins 3B (LAA), 4. Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/RF (TAM), 3. Evan Longoria 3B (TAM), 2. Miguel Cabrera 1B (DET), 1. Joe Mauer C (MIN)

The worst team in baseball? My answer might surprise you.

Almost from the moment they came into existence five seasons ago, the Washington Nationals have been a baseball punchline. And, again this season, they possess, predictably, the worst record in baseball. There isn't a lot for the Nats management to hang their hats on. After all, they began the season with a South American scouting scandal which eventually led to the resignation of their general manager and have since seen the demotion and/or trading of three of the "budding stars" they had designed their 2009 advertising around: Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Joel Hanrahan. However, it hasn't been all bad. The Washington offense, led by Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, and Christian Guzman, is 9th in the NL in runs scored (it would be their highest finish ever) and 5th in OPS. For the most part their pitching has been atrocious, but "Ace" John Lannan has proven himself to be more than a fluke, going 6-5 with an excellent 3.49 ERA. And rookie Jordan Zimmerman is looking like a solid major-league pitcher as well. Since the beginning of June he is 1-1, but with a 2.41 ERA and 31 K in 33 IP. They will presumably soon be joined by the #1 pick, maybe the most-touted pitching prospect ever, Stephen Strasburg, as well as some combination of other recent top prospects Sharon Martis, Scott Olsen, and Ross Detwiler, each of whom has shown flashes of brilliance (and a considerable amount of mediocrity) during their limited stints so far in 2009. In other words, the Nats might accurately be conceived of as a franchise on the rise...headed in the right direction.

The San Diego Padres, however, are in quite the opposite position. In the middle of May, with Jake Peavy still healthy and Adrian Gonzalez streaking, the Padres put together a highly unexpected 10-game winning streak, climbing back to .500 in the process, since then they have been the worst team in the sport, going 12-27 (.307). Peavy was lost, probably for the season. And, the league having realized the Padres hadn't a single other hitter worth being afraid of, stopped pitching to Gonzalez. On May 16 he was hitting .302 with 15 HR and 29 RBI, since then he is hitting .214 with 9 HR and 23 RBI.

The Padres don't have a single regular (200+ AB) with a batting average above .267 (David Eckstein). Their .236 team average, if it persists (and there's no reason to think it won't, since their best months are probably already behind them), would be the worst registered by a major league franchise since the 1992 New York Mets (.235). The just traded their second-best hitter, Scott Hairston, to the Athletics for some mediocre pitching prospects and rumors swirl around that veterans who have any value at all, guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff and David Eckstein may soon follow. Gonzalez, who is signed through 2011 at a reasonable price and is a fan favorite due in part to his Mexican heritage (San Diego, of course, has a sizable Mexican-American community), is probably the only player who is off-limits...and maybe not even him.

San Diego's management realizes that as poor as the product they are putting on the field currently is, it may get even worse. The Padres' farm system was ranked 29th (out of 30) prior to the season by Baseball America and their #1 pick (#3 overall) was a "toolsy" teenage outfielder, who can't be project to join the big-league roster for at least three or four seasons. The Padres had hoped to re-stock by dealing Peavy at the deadline, but he's all but worthless now until he proves himself fully healthy. It's going to be a rough few seasons for San Diego fans, who may see more than they would like of Everth Cabrera, Will Venable, and Jody Gerut.

"He's done-er than done." - Matthew Berry

I'll admit it, I'm unfairly picking on Matthew Berry because he's somebody I read and listen to consistently. So, clearly, I often agree with or benefit from his analysis. But in this instance he joins a whole chorus of journalists who have been so eager to declare Big Papi's six week slump evidence of a steep, inevitable decline, impossible for him to bounce back from. This declaration troubles and offends me, frankly.

Also, let me be clear, a 2-for-5 night with a homer doesn't necessarily mean that the slump is ended. Ortiz fans will need a couple more of these before they can show genuine relief. But it's a start.

What bothers me most about Ortiz's situation is the so-called "scarlet letter" of steroids, discussed here by Bill Reynolds, which is now being affixed to a player for whom there isn't really even circumstantial evidence. People will say that I'm in denial about the prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball. That's not true. I'm willing to concede their ubiquity. Which is part of why (and this is what really bothers people) I really don't care. I don't believe that steroids/PEDs are especially dangerous when taken by grown men of their own accord (for starters, check out the documentary "Bigger, Stronger, Faster"). I don't think baseball should be held to a different standard than say the NFL or any other forum for professional athletics. I don't think that any substance diminishes or explains the exceptional talents of a Barry Bonds or a Manny Ramirez. I don't think baseball history is in any way tarnished, that is, any more tarnished, than it's been from any number of ball-playing assholes from Cap Anson to John Rocker. This is just another (very entertaining) episode in the sport's history, which, like American history, is filled with glorious imperfections.

But, back to Ortiz.

What bothers me about the treatment of Big Papi is that it is the most publicized instance of the trend towards explaining any drastic drop in production by insinuations about steroids. This is deeply ironic (or tragic, if you're a player) because now you can be presumed guilty if either a.) you are too productive in your mid to late thirties or b.) you are suddenly unproductive in your mid to late thirties. Basically, if you don't follow the loosely-defined "normal" career path, than you are fair game for "juicing" speculation.

Another issue here is Ortiz's physique. It used to be that steroid speculation was fueled by extraordinary physical changes. Either an eruption of muscles on a formerly slim(mer) player (Brady Anderson, Sammy Sosa, McGwire, etc.) or a sudden atrophy in the wake of more stringent testing (Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, etc.). As somebody who has experienced his share of drug-unrelated weight fluctuations, I have real problems with this hypothesis. Regardless, in Ortiz's case, no transformation is evident. In fact, he has exactly the build (insert favorite euphemism here) which we would expect for both a.) the kind of player who accumulates sizable home-run totals in the prime of their career (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.) then drops off drastically as their immensity catches up with them (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.).

Meanwhile, it has somehow become "naive" to blame some of Ortiz's struggles on his wrist injury. We should note, however, that the torn tendon sheath which sidelined Ortiz relatively briefly in 2008 has ended seasons for players like Nick Johnson, Billy Wagner, and, most recently, Rickie Weeks. Wrist injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from. Derrek Lee, for instance, has yet to display the power he showed prior to his disastrous injury in 2006. A wrist injury in 2003 limited Adrian Gonzalez to only 5 HR (in the minor leagues) that season and only 12 at AAA in 2004. Those are hardly the kind of power numbers you would expect for a player of his caliber at that level, which may be why he was traded twice (from the Marlins to the Rangers to the Padres) before he became the consistent 30+ HR threat he is today.

Might Ortiz have reached, at age 33, a point in his career where age and unfortunate injuries make him better suited to hit fifth or sixth, rather than third or fourth? Possibly. May he be prone to more slumps and perhaps even need to be benched against tough left-handers? Possibly. But then, the same can be said of Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr. Is there also the possibility that he might, like Carlos Delgado or Jason Giambi, make the purveyors of his "doneness" eat their words by stringing together several more prime (or, at least, semi-prime) seasons? Quite possibly.

Bold Predictions - NL West

Rafeal Furcal says, "Check this blog."

Unlike the divisions which feature bottom-feeders like the Royal, Orioles, Devil Rays, Nationals, and Pirates, the NL West is composed of five teams for which contention is a legitimate argument. Some critics will scoff at the elderly Giants, others at the pitching-poor Rockies, but even those teams have enough indisputable strengths that good luck (a.k.a. bad luck for their opponents) could provide enough momentum to jetison them into the playoffs. Last year the NL West sent two teams. Both of which got knocked out in the opening round. This year the Phillies and Mets seem like Wild Card favorites standing head and shoulders above the rest of the competition in the East, but it is not altogether unlikely that two teams could again slip in from the West.

There are no easy innings in the NL West. In a style more typical of the American League, this division is defined by its depth. Their are no elite 3-4-5 combinations (although Helton-Atkins-Holliday could become one), but unlike teams that have potent hitters in the middle of the order like Houston and St. Louis, no team in the NL West has a starting position player that is a glaring offensive liability. The Rockies may be an exception, depending upon the productivity they get from Kaz Matsui at 2B and Chris Iannetta at C, but both those players have upside and Colorado makes up for it with as much potency 1-6 as any team in the division.

It's a similar story with the rotations. The Dodgers have so much depth in starting pitching that they have had to convert top prospect Chad Billingsley into a reliever, even though he went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA during the stretch run in 2006. The Diamondbacks have a quartet of perennial 200-inning horses, and five of the last eight Cy Young awards. The young, fast lineup behind them will have to prove that they are major leagure ready defenders, as none of these guys - even Randy Johnson - can depend heavily on the K. The Padres added David Wells and Greg Maddux as dependable, strike-throwing veterans behind the powerful young trio of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Clay Hensley. And the Giants bost a similarly diverse rotation with two of the greatest curveballers of the past decade - Barry Zito and Matt Morris - balanced by young power arms Matt Cain and Noah Lowry.

Division Champs - Los Angeles Dodgers

In a division as tight as this one (or similarly, the AL Central), unfortunately a lot hinges on luck. Or, to put a more positive spin on it, how one prepares for and recovers from bad luck. The Dodgers are in better shape than any team in their division (and maybe the league) to replace injured contributors with at least league-average capable backups. In some cases, Dodgers fans may be praying for injuries. I have a hard time believing that James Loney isn't already a better middle of the lineup option than Luis Gonzalez. Similarly, I would rather see a Chad Billingsley at the back end of my rotation than a Brett Tomko. Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Jonathan Broxton, and Hong-Chih Kuo are all young players ready to step up when the opportunity presents itself. And with injury-prone veterans like Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny slated for key roles, there should be plenty of opportunities.

Key Player : Russell Martin - C

Be prepared to here a lot about Russell Coltrane Martin in this blog as he catupulted to the top of my most soulful players list with his impressive rookie campaign and his tear-jerking backstory. But, personal preference aside, this is the one position the Dodgers can't afford to turn over to the next in line. There was a time when Mike Lieberthal was a solid choice as an everyday starter and he's still an enviable offensive backup backstop, but even in his prime he never provided the combination of power, speed, discipline, and defense that Martin brings to the ballpark on a daily basis.

Runner-Up - San Francisco Giants

This is an unpopular choice. Besides the constant outrage towards the original Bay Area Barry, the Giants are now taking flak for paying too much for Barry Z. and generally not getting younger. I won't aim to invalidate those criticisms. Soon, very soon, San Francisco needs to shed the model which has brought it great success for over a decade and move in a new direction so they can keep filling those seats in that beautiful ballpark while Bonds is racking up a hundred or so homers in the American League. But this was not the year. The Zito signing aside, rebuilding your roster with free agents in the winter that Jason Marquis gets Jason Schmidt money, and Jason Schmidt gets Jason Giambi money is not a viable solution. The free agent crop next year includes Andruw Jones, Mark Texeira, and, possibly, Alex Rodriguez. Start with one of them.

The team they are putting on the field is mediocre at best on offense, but so was San Diego last year, and Oakland, and they both made the playoffs. The pitching staff, if the bullpen comes together, is potentially dominant. Cain & Zito are both Aces in 2007, mark my word. Zito will mow down unprepared NL hitters (and pitchers) in one of the hardest ballparks to hit home runs out of (unless you're you know who). Cain will make the next logical progressive step towards his inevitably strong-if-not-spectacular career and the Giants will get at least one unsuspected performance from either Noah Lowry, Brad Hennessy, or Jonathan Sanchez. There is too much talent there for none of them to step up. Granted, all this merely means getting a few games above .500, but in the NL, as St. Louis proved again last year, that may be enough.

Key Player : Matt Morris - SP

Obviously, the Barrys have to be the Barrys. But that goes without saying. If Bonds, Zito, or Cain goes down, that's the ballgame. See you next year. Morris is the key, because if Morris steps up the Giants posses among the best rotations in the league, that alone makes them a contender. I don't have any delusions of Morris becoming the pitcher that was in 2001 & 2002 for St. Louis. But how about the one he was in 2004 & 2005. If he can stabalize the back end of the rotation with another 200 innings and an ERA below 4.50, he has a legitimate shot at 15+ wins, and there are still some days when that 12:30 curveball is nearly unhittable (even last year he threw two complete games). He does that and it takes a hellavu lot of pressure off the newbies.

3rd Place - San Diego Padres

Yes, it's a good rotation. Yes, it could be a great rotation. But on the other side of the ball: Could it be a great lineup? No. Every starter would have to hit his ceiling for San Diego's offensive production, particularly at Petco Park, to look anything better than league average. Of course, they haven't even been that good and they've advanced to the playoffs two years in a row on the backs of their pitchers. The competition is stiffer this time around. Don't look for it to be a three-peat.

Key Player : Adrian Gonzalez - 1B

Other than Gonzalez, the sources of power in San Diego's lineup are swift-footed doubles hitters like Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene, and Brian Giles, none of which are likely to surpass 20 dingers (again, especially at Petco). Adrian Gonzalez bested all of them with 24 HR in 2006. There is no more Mike Piazza, so Gonzalez is going to have to step up and prove that he can be the big bopper position in San Diego's lineup.

4th Place - Arizona Diamondbacks

They have those four horsemen: Brandon Webb (2006 Cy Young), Randy Johnson (5 Cys, 3 Runner-Up, 280 W), Doug Davis (630 IP with Milwaukee '04-'06), and Livan Hernandez (7 straight seasons of 216+ IP). Every one of them was an opening day starter in 2006. They compiled a 57-43 record. Not bad. Take away Webb, it falls to 41-35. Still fine. Of course, Johson was pitching in front of one of the most potent lineups in baseball history, but...O. K. I digress. The problem here is not the pitching. The pitching will be reliable, possibly excellent. This is last year's Florida Marlins, but they won't get as much credit because they aren't exactly doing it on the cheap. I expect at least two or three players from the Diamondbacks to be in the running for Rookie of the Year honors, with center-fielder Chris Young the obvious favorite. It will be a fun team to watch. Besides the horsemen and the rookies, they have Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson, two potent young corner infielders coming into their prime. But, the D-Backs are still at least a year away from returning to the postseason.

Key Player : Eric Byrnes - LF

As the most veteran presence in the everyday lineup (at the ripe old age of 31), Byrnes will have to build off his own breakout year - in which, as a guest commentator during the playoffs, he coined the term "tickler" in reference to a peculiarly long soul patch - and keep his twenty-something teammates heads up during the inevitable dry stretches. We know the Big Unit isn't going to do it, but Byrnes is a suitable candidate, so long as he doesn't suffer through his own prolonged slump.

5th Place - Colorado Rockies

Last year, the pitching improved, drastically. Their 5.01 R/G was the best since their inception in 1993, by almost half a run! And, for the first time they were not among the two worst in the league. They continued to score runs even as their longtime centerpiece, Todd Helton, struggled with various ailments and offensive inconsistencies. If he returns to a moderate .320-25-90 plateau (moderate for him), the middle of the lineup will begin to rate among the best in the league, up with New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. The pieces are falling into place in Colorado, especially if the swap of Jason Jenning to Houston for Willy Tavarez, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Bucholz turns out to be the bonanza it appears to be. If the pitching makes another significant step forward, Colorado could be this year's Detroit Tigers.

Key Player(s) : Aaron Cook & Jason Hirsh - SP

Nobody believes that Colorado can put together a strong starting rotation, but they continue to try. The traded the winningest pitcher in franchise history for some additional pieces. Hirsh is apparently ready now and will be inserted the #4 slot, behind emerging Ace, Jeff Francis, journeyman, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Cook. Lopez and whoever the #5 is, Josh Fogg or B. Y. Kim, will undoubtedly have difficulty keeping their ERAs around 5.00. Cook and Hirsh must do considerably better than that.