Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux.  I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job.  Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars.  I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati.  In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011.  I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right?  Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true.  For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked.  After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world.  Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues).  The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with.  So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline.  He's going to get on base.  Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price.  I recommend this course of action in deep leagues.  If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008.  The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors.  This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer).  Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring.  Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory.  Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010.  Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck.  Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning.  It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age.  He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field.  Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem?  Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia.  You want a bastion of health at this thin position?  Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.  In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do.  Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke."  It just doesn't happen.  His belly has disappeared.  His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado.  Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign.  Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues.  Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection.  Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers."  Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species.  That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far.  Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.  This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder.  A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield.  When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case.  If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else.  This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS.  Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young.  I don't know exactly why it is.  Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into.  Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton.  To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid.  I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old.  Remember what you were doing when you were 24?  Who's the bigger "bust"?  Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs.  Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances.  I wouldn't expect him to match that total.  But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline.  I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!"  Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom.  Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons.  Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox.  Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach.  And, really, that's about all he can't hit.  Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS.  Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella.  No more Derrek Lee.  No more Carlos Silva.  No more Milton Bradley.  Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP.  I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011.  As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues.  Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.  The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong.  Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt).  Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP.  Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010.  This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Six)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Five)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Offseason Prospectus #16: The Cleveland Indians

The Indians are one of the most enjoyable franchises to follow and one of the most challenging to evaluate. Mark Shapiro is among the more creative and unpredictable GMs in baseball and the teams he puts together often possess the same characteristics, which isn't always a good thing. During the Noughties, Cleveland won 90+ games four times, and lost 90+ twice. They spent over $90 Million (in 2001) and under $35 Million (in 2004), and pretty much everything between. Players like Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner experienced both ends of the performance spectrum, as candidates (and even winners) of MVPs and Cy Youngs, but also falling dramatically short of expectations in intervening years.

As recently as 2007 the Indians made it as far as Game 7 of the ALCS. They looked like a franchise poised to compete for years to come. However, their winning percentage dropped by nearly 100 points in each of the next two seasons and now, having dealt C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, Franklin Gutierrez, Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano, Rafael Betancourt, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Ben Francisco in the span of fourteen months, they appear to be franchise firmly in a rebuilding mode. Only ten players from the 2007 ALCS roster remain in the Cleveland organization.

This isn't unfamiliar territory. In 2005, when they had one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, the Indians surprised everybody by winning 93 games and making a serious run on the AL Wild Card, going 38-16 (.704) in the seasons final two months. The next year, with a team of much the same composition, seemingly poised for contention, they again fell beneath .500. When it comes to Shapiro's Indians, looks can be deceiving.

Free Agents:

Jamey Carroll (36) IF [Signed w/ Dodgers]

Masa Kobayashi (36) RHRP [Signed w/ Yomiuri Giants]

Tomo Ohka (34) RHP

Jose Veras (29) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Rafael Perez (28) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Brantley (23) OF

Jordan Brown (26) OF

Carlos Carrasco (23) RHSP

Jeanmar Gomez (22) RHSP

Matt LaPorta (25) 1B/OF

Lou Marson (24) C

Vinnie Pestano (25) RHRP

Johan Pino (26) RHSP

Carlos Santana (24) C

Jess Todd (24) RHRP

Nick Weglarz (22) LF

The Indians organization has been for the last two decades one of the best in baseball at drafting and developing talent. Although financial restraints prevent them from retaining all of that talent, they firmly believe in replenishing the system via trades. Their success this season will be based mainly upon the production of those players who were acquired when Cleveland traded the veterans listed above.

Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the Sabathia deal with Milwaukee in 2008. The Indians weren't sure going into the year whether LaPorta was a left-fielder or a first-baseman. During his first promotion, playing primarily left field, LaPorta struggled, managing only a 571 OPS over the course of an eleven-game stretch in May. The Indians sent him back to AAA, and when he returned, he posted an admirable 805 OPS through forty games in August and September. After trading Ryan Garko and Michael Aubrey, it appears that Cleveland will enter 2010 withe LaPorta as their everyday first-baseman. LaPorta's minor-league stats (941 OPS, for instance) suggest he has the power to hold down that position. If he can provide protection for Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, Cleveland could produce runs in bunches. It is a balanced attack, with

power and speed from both sides of the plate, as well as solid defense up the middle.

The Indians rotation, on the other hand, is filled with once-promising prospects for whom this is probably the last chance. Fausto Carmona epitomizes the group. After being among the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2007, winning 19 games and posting a 3.06 ERA, Carmona has taken huge steps backward in each of the past two seasons. In 2009 he went 5-12 with an abyssmal 6.32 ERA. However, Carmona is still only 26 years old, perfectly capable of becoming a quality starter, if not the Ace he looked like a couple years ago.

Similarly, Anthony Reyes was once considered among the top pitching prospects. He threw eight strong innings in the first game of the 2006 World Series, at the age of 24. However, it has been mostly downhill from there. He went just 2-14 for the Cardinals in '07. He was traded to the Tribe midway through '08 and looked great down the stretch, posting a 1.80 ERA in his first six starts with his new team. But in '09 he was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness. At the age of 28, he doesn't have many chances left.

The same can be said of Jeremy Sowers, the promising Vanderbilt Ace who's now made 71 major-league starts, but won only 17 of them. Aaron Laffey, another left-hander who breezed through the minor leagues, has also struggled to perform at the major-league level, posting a 4.42 ERA in 44 starts.

All of these pitchers are young enough that Cleveland is willing to give them at least another year of opportunities, but if Shapiro doesn't see significant maturation, 2011 may mark the end of his patience. The Indians next crop of hurlers is coming up the pipeline, buoyed by the additions of Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, and Johan Pino via Shapiro's flurry of trades last summer. Nobody in the Opening Day rotation will have a particularly long leash.

The Indians have a lot to work out going into Spring Training. Not only is the rotation pretty much a free-for-all, the Tribe will be looking at multiple candidates for left field, second base, catcher, and in the bullpen, where Kerry Wood, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith are probably the only pitchers who have locked up spots in advance.

The battle for backstop is particularly interesting as it features two 24-year-olds who are both among the top prospects at their position. Lou Marson, who came to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal, got a couple cups of coffee in 2009 and posted a 708 OPS between Cleveland and Philadelphia. Marson doesn't possess much power, but he is a quality defender who gets on base at a very high rate (.433 OBP at AA in '08, .382 at AAA prior to the trade in '09). Carlos Santana hasn't advanced past AA yet, but he is one of the top hitting prospects around. In 132 AA games, he's hit 24 HR, driven in 99 runs, and posted a 939 OPS. If he can prove himself defensively, he is probably the Indians catcher of the future. If not, he is probably their DH of the future.

There are currently only three men on the Indians 40-man roster over the age of thirty: Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, and Travis Hafner. Each of them possesses an ungainly contract, so they probably won't be featured on next season's trading block unless they have an unexpected renaissance. Rather, they will be asked, along with Cleveland's new manager, Manny Acta, to guide a clubhouse full of exciting young talents. Although it is probably a truly long shot for Cleveland to surge to the front of their division (which is, to be fair, a division without an obvious powerhouse), by August of 2010, I expect none of the contenders will be looking forward to playing meaningful games against the Indians and in 2011 they may be favorites in the AL Central. Which, based on the contrarian perspective outlined above, may not be a position of strength.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Grady Sizemore (L)

SS Asdrubel Cabrera (S)

RF Shin-Soo Choo (L)

DH Travis Hafner (L)

1B Matt LaPorta (R)

3B Jhonny Peralta (R)

C Carlos Santana (S)

LF Michael Brantley (L)

2B Luis Valbuena (L)

SP Jake Westbrook (R)

SP Fausto Carmona (R)

SP Aaron Laffey (L)

SP Anthony Reyes (R)

SP Jeremy Sowers (L)

CL Kerry Wood (R)

SU Joe Smith (R)

SU Tony Sipp (L)

MR Jensen Lewis (R)

MR Chris Perez (R)

LOOGY Rafael Perez (L)

SWING Justin Masterson (R)

C Lou Marson (R)

1B/3B Andy Marte (R)

2B/SS Jason Donald (R)

OF Trevor Crowe (S)