Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
Showing posts with label Dontrelle Willis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dontrelle Willis. Show all posts
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
What's left to prove...
With Stephen Strasburg optioned to AA, Jason Heyward penciled into the Braves Opening Day lineup, and Phil Hughes confirmed as the Yankees fifth starter, it may feel like March is coming to an anticlimactic end. Here are the best remaining storylines heading into the final week of Spring Training.
S-Rod
Every year there is an off-the-radar player who dominates the Grapefruit League and unexpectedly earns a spot on the major-league roster (remember Chris Shelton). Usually, that player is an afterthought by the middle of May, but that may not be the case with Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez is hitting .413 and leading the league with six homers, while Pat Burrell (.171) and Gabe Kapler (.138) have been less than impressive. Matt Joyce's elbow injury may limit him to DH duties or even force him to the DL to begin the season, which may clear space for S-Rod in right field or at second base (with Ben Zobrist moving to right).
Rodriguez is a serious prospect, the key piece in the Scott Kazmir trade with the Angels last August. S-Rod has shown tremendous power throughout his minor-league career and in recent seasons has shown a steadily improving sense of the strike zone. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but at least he'll whiff primarily on pitches in the zone and could be make a run at 30 HR even as a rookie if he's given everyday at-bats. The Rays are "all-in" with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena headed to free agency at the end of 2010, so I think they'll give S-Rod a chance to prove his March numbers are no fluke. If he produces during the time it takes Matt Joyce's elbow to heal, it could spell the end of the Pat the Bat experiment in Tampa Bay.
The Jeff Suppan Mercy Killing
The Brewers are facing an unfamiliar problem this spring: a dearth of starting pitching. With Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and Manny Parra pretty much guaranteed spots in the rotation, only one remains for either Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, or Chris Narveson.
Both Bush and Narveson have pitched extremely well this spring, while Suppan has not. The fact that Bush, Narveson, and Parra are all out of minor-league options and would undoubtedly be claimed off waivers, makes it almost impossible for the traditionally pitching poor Brewers to leave any one of them off the active roster.
Suppan has gotten progressively worse since coming to Milwaukee and seems now like a serious candidate for release, even though that would mean the Brewers would have to eat the remaining $14 Million on his contract. Better that, however, than lose a useful and relatively young pitcher like Narveson or Bush and get nothing in return.
No doubt Doug Melvin is beating the bushes trying to find a trading partner. That may not be far-fetched considering how many teams have starting pitching shortages, but they will be able to drive a hard bargain with the knowledge that Milwaukee's roster math just doesn't work at this juncture. It wouldn't surprise me terribly if the Brewers began the season with thirteen pitchers, or if Suppan came down with a convenient case of tendinitis that forced him to the 15-day DL.
Roll the Dice on Aroldis?
I've been saying it all spring and I still believe, assuming his back spasms aren't a recurring problem, Aroldis Chapman will be the Reds best option for the final spot in the rotation. I don't think he's the second-coming of Dwight Gooden. There will be some rough outings. But if the Reds are serious about contending during the final year of Dusty Baker's contract (and potentially the final year in Cincinnati for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Ramon Hernandez), Chapman has the best chance of helping them to that goal straight out of the gate.
Peter Gammons argues eloquently for giving Chapman a Strasburg-style six-week minor-league training program and I understand his logic, but I think it's safe to say that if the Nationals thought they had a legitimate shot at the postseason, they probably would've made Strasburg their Opening Day starter. Many in the Braves organization regret starting Tommy Hanson at AAA in '09, considering the Braves ended missing the playoffs by only six games and the men who kept Hanson's seat warm, primarily Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen, combined for only one win in April and May. There is quite a bit riding on this season, for Baker, for the Reds veterans, and for the front office. Making their first postseason appearance since 1995 would more than make up for the money they might lose if Chapman gets one more year of arbitration.
The Comeback Train?
The Tigers are going to pay $35 Million this season to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson, but at this juncture it looks like there's only room or two of them in the rotation. Bonderman and Willis are clear favorites, both because they have more raw talent and because Robertson has a better chance of adapting to a relief role. I think it's safe to say that everybody's rooting for the affable, spirited D-Train, but while his increasing velocity and 1.20 ERA in fifteen spring innings are damn good signs, his eight walks are a red flag, especially considering that control problems are what derailed him in '08 and '09.
The Second Coming of R. Ortiz
Coming into Spring Training the Dodgers probably expected that the competition for fifth starter would come down to youngsters like James McDonald and Charlie Haeger. That has not been the case. There is still a rookie in the running, 24-year-old Carlos Monasterios, but frontrunners are a pair of guys named Ortiz, both of whom came into camp facing very long odds.
Ramon Ortiz, the former Angels workhorse who will turn 37 in May, hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2007, but he has struck out nineteen batters in fourteen innings, posting a 1.29 ERA.
Russ Ortiz, the former Giants Ace, is a year younger, and got thirteen starts for the Astros in 2009, but he hasn't had even a mediocre season since 2004. Over the last five years he is 10-28 with a 6.56 ERA. However, this spring he's been dominant, allowing on two earned runs in thirteen innings (2.08 ERA).
Many were surprised yesterday when Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would be his Opening Day starter. They're going to be even more surprised when he announces who gets the call on April 11th.
S-Rod
Every year there is an off-the-radar player who dominates the Grapefruit League and unexpectedly earns a spot on the major-league roster (remember Chris Shelton). Usually, that player is an afterthought by the middle of May, but that may not be the case with Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez is hitting .413 and leading the league with six homers, while Pat Burrell (.171) and Gabe Kapler (.138) have been less than impressive. Matt Joyce's elbow injury may limit him to DH duties or even force him to the DL to begin the season, which may clear space for S-Rod in right field or at second base (with Ben Zobrist moving to right).
Rodriguez is a serious prospect, the key piece in the Scott Kazmir trade with the Angels last August. S-Rod has shown tremendous power throughout his minor-league career and in recent seasons has shown a steadily improving sense of the strike zone. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but at least he'll whiff primarily on pitches in the zone and could be make a run at 30 HR even as a rookie if he's given everyday at-bats. The Rays are "all-in" with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena headed to free agency at the end of 2010, so I think they'll give S-Rod a chance to prove his March numbers are no fluke. If he produces during the time it takes Matt Joyce's elbow to heal, it could spell the end of the Pat the Bat experiment in Tampa Bay.
The Jeff Suppan Mercy Killing
The Brewers are facing an unfamiliar problem this spring: a dearth of starting pitching. With Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and Manny Parra pretty much guaranteed spots in the rotation, only one remains for either Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, or Chris Narveson.
Both Bush and Narveson have pitched extremely well this spring, while Suppan has not. The fact that Bush, Narveson, and Parra are all out of minor-league options and would undoubtedly be claimed off waivers, makes it almost impossible for the traditionally pitching poor Brewers to leave any one of them off the active roster.
Suppan has gotten progressively worse since coming to Milwaukee and seems now like a serious candidate for release, even though that would mean the Brewers would have to eat the remaining $14 Million on his contract. Better that, however, than lose a useful and relatively young pitcher like Narveson or Bush and get nothing in return.
No doubt Doug Melvin is beating the bushes trying to find a trading partner. That may not be far-fetched considering how many teams have starting pitching shortages, but they will be able to drive a hard bargain with the knowledge that Milwaukee's roster math just doesn't work at this juncture. It wouldn't surprise me terribly if the Brewers began the season with thirteen pitchers, or if Suppan came down with a convenient case of tendinitis that forced him to the 15-day DL.
Roll the Dice on Aroldis?
I've been saying it all spring and I still believe, assuming his back spasms aren't a recurring problem, Aroldis Chapman will be the Reds best option for the final spot in the rotation. I don't think he's the second-coming of Dwight Gooden. There will be some rough outings. But if the Reds are serious about contending during the final year of Dusty Baker's contract (and potentially the final year in Cincinnati for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Ramon Hernandez), Chapman has the best chance of helping them to that goal straight out of the gate.
Peter Gammons argues eloquently for giving Chapman a Strasburg-style six-week minor-league training program and I understand his logic, but I think it's safe to say that if the Nationals thought they had a legitimate shot at the postseason, they probably would've made Strasburg their Opening Day starter. Many in the Braves organization regret starting Tommy Hanson at AAA in '09, considering the Braves ended missing the playoffs by only six games and the men who kept Hanson's seat warm, primarily Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen, combined for only one win in April and May. There is quite a bit riding on this season, for Baker, for the Reds veterans, and for the front office. Making their first postseason appearance since 1995 would more than make up for the money they might lose if Chapman gets one more year of arbitration.
The Comeback Train?
The Tigers are going to pay $35 Million this season to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson, but at this juncture it looks like there's only room or two of them in the rotation. Bonderman and Willis are clear favorites, both because they have more raw talent and because Robertson has a better chance of adapting to a relief role. I think it's safe to say that everybody's rooting for the affable, spirited D-Train, but while his increasing velocity and 1.20 ERA in fifteen spring innings are damn good signs, his eight walks are a red flag, especially considering that control problems are what derailed him in '08 and '09.
The Second Coming of R. Ortiz
Coming into Spring Training the Dodgers probably expected that the competition for fifth starter would come down to youngsters like James McDonald and Charlie Haeger. That has not been the case. There is still a rookie in the running, 24-year-old Carlos Monasterios, but frontrunners are a pair of guys named Ortiz, both of whom came into camp facing very long odds.
Ramon Ortiz, the former Angels workhorse who will turn 37 in May, hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2007, but he has struck out nineteen batters in fourteen innings, posting a 1.29 ERA.
Russ Ortiz, the former Giants Ace, is a year younger, and got thirteen starts for the Astros in 2009, but he hasn't had even a mediocre season since 2004. Over the last five years he is 10-28 with a 6.56 ERA. However, this spring he's been dominant, allowing on two earned runs in thirteen innings (2.08 ERA).
Many were surprised yesterday when Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would be his Opening Day starter. They're going to be even more surprised when he announces who gets the call on April 11th.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
The Stream (Week Nine)
[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]
MON: Joe Blanton (PHI) @ San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)
Blanton is coming of his finest outing of the season, an eleven strikeout, seven shutout inning performance at home against the Marlins. He'll get another struggling, strikeout-prone offense, this time on the road, but in a ballpark that minimizes Blanton's most glaring weakness, his propensity for giving up the long ball.
TUE: Manny Parra (MIL) @ Florida Marlins (Burke Badenhop)
I'm tempted to recommend Randy Wolf again, since he hasn't failed me yet, but he's facing off with Dan Haren, so his likelihood of earning a W decreases significantly, even if he pitches well. Much the same may be said for Zack Duke, who's facing Johan Santana. Which leads me to Manny Parra. His overall numbers (3-6, 5.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 46 K, 53 IP) are skewed by a particularly bad outing (3 IP, 8 ER) against an extraordinarily hot Minnesota lineup. Discounting that start, his May numbers are quite solid (3-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K, 31 IP). That includes a solid 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K win over the Marlins on May 12. Milwaukee's offense gives Parra a chance to win, even it he's not perfect.
WED: Randy Johnson (SFG) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)
There is the added sentimental bonus of perhaps having the Big Unit on your roster for his 300th victory, but Johnson has pitched legitimately well in his last two outings, striking out twelve in twelve innings of work and allowing only two runs. The Nationals are, believe it or not, the third most productive offense in the NL right now (trailing on Los Angeles and Philadelphia). However, their pitching staff still gives up more than the lineup produces and their team OPS is 30 points lower at home. (Special Note: Adam Dunn v. Big Unit, 1-for-12 with 0 XBH)
THU: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Tampa Bay Rays (James Shields)
Not a lot to choose from on Thursday, but if you need somebody, you might take a gamble on Meche. Tampa has a potent offense, but last year Meche managed a 1.46 ERA in two starts against primarily the same players. Shields has been struggling, so he may have a chance to win even if he can't maintain that pace.
FRI: Doug Davis (ARI) @ San Diego Padres (Josh Geer)
I wouldn't fault you for going with Paul Maholm (@ Houston), Nick Blackburn (@ Seattle), or Barry Zito (@ Florida). But, you should beware of Maholm's history at Minute Maid. Blackburn gets a tough matchup against King Felix. And Zito, though he continues to pitch well, has been the victim of terrible run support. Davis has also. He has quietly pitched well (3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 51 K, 69 IP). Like Blanton, his main weakness is the home run, so PETCO Park suits him well. He is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA there in his career.
SAT: Anthony Swarzak (MIN) @ Seattle Mariners (Garrett Olson)
Swarzak may be the newest addition to the long line of middle-tier pitching prospect turned quality starters by the Twins organization. He's only 23, but went 8-4 with a 2.03 ERA in 90 IP at AAA. He's not overpowering (only 58 K at AAA), but he's looked solid in his first two major league outings (13 IP, 3 ER) and he gets a mediocre offense at a pitcher's park against an opponent, Garrett Olson, who's pretty much proven he has no business pitching in the majors (6.53 ERA in 185 IP). Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer are all red hot. It's a good time to be pitching for the Twins.
SUN: Zack Duke (PIT) @ Houston Astros (Felipe Paulino)
Duke has been downright golden so far this season (5-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 42 K, 72 IP). The only reason he isn't owned across the board is that his team stinks. Thankfully so do the Astros, including their rookie pitcher, Felipe Paulino (1-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 26 K, 36 IP). This makes Duke slightly more favorable than Randy Wolf (v. Phillies), Rich Hill (@ Athletics), and Manny Parra (@ Braves).
Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]
MON: Brett Anderson (W, 6 IP, 1.50/1.33, 4 K)
TUE: Kevin Correia (L, 5 2/3 IP, 9.53/1.76, 5 K)
WED: Kensin Kawakami (L, 5 2/3 IP, 4.76/2.29, 2 K)
THU: Randy Wolf (W, 7 IP, 1.29/1.00, 7 K)
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (L, 5 IP, 12.60/2.40, 1 K)
SAT: Barry Zito (L, 6 2/3 IP, 4.02/1.80, 6 K)
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (L, 5 IP, 7.20/1.80, 5 K)
Week 8 Totals: 2-5, 39 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 30 K
Season Totals: 8-8, 120 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96 K
Not a lot to hang my hat on from last week, except perhaps Brett Anderson's unheralded performance on Monday. Hopefully many of you, like me, didn't have to take chance on D-Train and De La Rosa over the weekend. This is a good time to point out that, despite an atrocious record, Baltimore sports a pretty potent offense and should probably be avoided against spot starters. I had hoped that Dontrelle would follow up on a couple of stellar outing. It was not to be.
MON: Joe Blanton (PHI) @ San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)
Blanton is coming of his finest outing of the season, an eleven strikeout, seven shutout inning performance at home against the Marlins. He'll get another struggling, strikeout-prone offense, this time on the road, but in a ballpark that minimizes Blanton's most glaring weakness, his propensity for giving up the long ball.
TUE: Manny Parra (MIL) @ Florida Marlins (Burke Badenhop)
I'm tempted to recommend Randy Wolf again, since he hasn't failed me yet, but he's facing off with Dan Haren, so his likelihood of earning a W decreases significantly, even if he pitches well. Much the same may be said for Zack Duke, who's facing Johan Santana. Which leads me to Manny Parra. His overall numbers (3-6, 5.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 46 K, 53 IP) are skewed by a particularly bad outing (3 IP, 8 ER) against an extraordinarily hot Minnesota lineup. Discounting that start, his May numbers are quite solid (3-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K, 31 IP). That includes a solid 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K win over the Marlins on May 12. Milwaukee's offense gives Parra a chance to win, even it he's not perfect.
WED: Randy Johnson (SFG) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)
There is the added sentimental bonus of perhaps having the Big Unit on your roster for his 300th victory, but Johnson has pitched legitimately well in his last two outings, striking out twelve in twelve innings of work and allowing only two runs. The Nationals are, believe it or not, the third most productive offense in the NL right now (trailing on Los Angeles and Philadelphia). However, their pitching staff still gives up more than the lineup produces and their team OPS is 30 points lower at home. (Special Note: Adam Dunn v. Big Unit, 1-for-12 with 0 XBH)
THU: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Tampa Bay Rays (James Shields)
Not a lot to choose from on Thursday, but if you need somebody, you might take a gamble on Meche. Tampa has a potent offense, but last year Meche managed a 1.46 ERA in two starts against primarily the same players. Shields has been struggling, so he may have a chance to win even if he can't maintain that pace.
FRI: Doug Davis (ARI) @ San Diego Padres (Josh Geer)
I wouldn't fault you for going with Paul Maholm (@ Houston), Nick Blackburn (@ Seattle), or Barry Zito (@ Florida). But, you should beware of Maholm's history at Minute Maid. Blackburn gets a tough matchup against King Felix. And Zito, though he continues to pitch well, has been the victim of terrible run support. Davis has also. He has quietly pitched well (3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 51 K, 69 IP). Like Blanton, his main weakness is the home run, so PETCO Park suits him well. He is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA there in his career.
SAT: Anthony Swarzak (MIN) @ Seattle Mariners (Garrett Olson)
Swarzak may be the newest addition to the long line of middle-tier pitching prospect turned quality starters by the Twins organization. He's only 23, but went 8-4 with a 2.03 ERA in 90 IP at AAA. He's not overpowering (only 58 K at AAA), but he's looked solid in his first two major league outings (13 IP, 3 ER) and he gets a mediocre offense at a pitcher's park against an opponent, Garrett Olson, who's pretty much proven he has no business pitching in the majors (6.53 ERA in 185 IP). Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer are all red hot. It's a good time to be pitching for the Twins.
SUN: Zack Duke (PIT) @ Houston Astros (Felipe Paulino)
Duke has been downright golden so far this season (5-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 42 K, 72 IP). The only reason he isn't owned across the board is that his team stinks. Thankfully so do the Astros, including their rookie pitcher, Felipe Paulino (1-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 26 K, 36 IP). This makes Duke slightly more favorable than Randy Wolf (v. Phillies), Rich Hill (@ Athletics), and Manny Parra (@ Braves).
Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]
MON: Brett Anderson (W, 6 IP, 1.50/1.33, 4 K)
TUE: Kevin Correia (L, 5 2/3 IP, 9.53/1.76, 5 K)
WED: Kensin Kawakami (L, 5 2/3 IP, 4.76/2.29, 2 K)
THU: Randy Wolf (W, 7 IP, 1.29/1.00, 7 K)
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (L, 5 IP, 12.60/2.40, 1 K)
SAT: Barry Zito (L, 6 2/3 IP, 4.02/1.80, 6 K)
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (L, 5 IP, 7.20/1.80, 5 K)
Week 8 Totals: 2-5, 39 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 30 K
Season Totals: 8-8, 120 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96 K
Not a lot to hang my hat on from last week, except perhaps Brett Anderson's unheralded performance on Monday. Hopefully many of you, like me, didn't have to take chance on D-Train and De La Rosa over the weekend. This is a good time to point out that, despite an atrocious record, Baltimore sports a pretty potent offense and should probably be avoided against spot starters. I had hoped that Dontrelle would follow up on a couple of stellar outing. It was not to be.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
The Stream (Week Eight)
[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]
MON: Brett Anderson (OAK) v. Seattle Mariners (Jakubauskas)
It's hard to argue with Brian Tallet right now (2.78 ERA in last four starts) and Jonthan Sanchez has been quite good at home (2.08 ERA in three starts), but both are sizable risks as well. The Blue Jays are going through their first offensive drought (and I can't quite forget that five starts ago Tallet surrendered ten earned runs). Sanchez gets a weak offense (Atlanta), but not as weak as his own, and faces off against an imposing Ace (Javier Vazquez). Therefore, I'm going to roll the dice on young Brett Anderson, coming off the best start of his young career (6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 B, 5 K) on the road against a strong offense (Tampa Bay). This time he'll be in friendlier confines and gets a struggling lineup and a converted long reliever (6.10 ERA). Could this be his coming out party?
TUE: Kevin Correia (SDP) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Scherzer)
There's not a lot of good choices. You could go with Ricky Romero making his first start off the D.L. Nick Blackburn and Aaron Cook are coming off strong outing, but match up with tough lineups (Red Sox and Dodgers). I'll take Correia against the D-Backs, who have about half-a-dozen regulars hitting below the Mendoza line. Correia has a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. Maybe it's a sign that he's starting to stretch it out.
WED: Kensin Kawakami (ATL) @ San Francisco Giants (Johnson)
Wish somebody from the group of Brett Myers, Trevor Cahill, and Manny Parra was throwing on Tuesday (cross fingers). Kawakami is coming off of four straight quality starts (1.88 ERA), including an eight inning shutout masterpiece his last time out. Good way to build momentum for facing the league's worst offense.
THU: Randy Wolf (LAD) @ Chicago Cubs (Wells)
As I said of Wandy Rodriguez last week, it won't be too much longer that Randy Wolf is available on the waiver wire, what with his great overall numbers (2-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 46 K) and even better in his last five starts (1-0, 1.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 23 K).
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (DET) @ Baltimore Orioles (Bergeson)
The D-Train appears to be back on track. He's allowed only three earned in his last thirteen innings. His last two starts have been at home, so leaving the friendly confines is justifiably cause for concern. However, the Orioles have a measly 620 team OPS against left-handers this season (only Oakland is worse) and are not the most patient group, which bodes well. If you aren't comfortable boarding this train again just yet, you might check out Sean West, the new addition to the Marlins rotation.
SAT: Barry Zito (SFG) v. St. Louis Cardinals (Pineiro)
It's hard to recommend a mediocre lefty against any lineup featuring Albert Pujols. But, aside from "The Machine," the Cardinals lineup is pretty meager right now, with Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus still sidelined. Zito has posted a 2.36 ERA at home thusfar.
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (COL) v. San Diego Padres (Gaudin)
It was a a tough call between De La Rosa and Gil Meche (v. White Sox), so I'm going with the guy who faces the weaker offense (even if it is at Coors Field). If you need Ks, Jorge's your man, with 46 K in 46 IP so far this season.
Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]
MON: Randy Wolf (7 2/3 IP, ND, 2.35/1.04, 2 K)
TUE: Barry Zito (8 IP, L, 2.25/1.13, 3 K)
WED: Paul Maholm (6 IP, ND, 1.50/1.17, 7 K)
THU: Bartolo Colon (2 IP, L, 4.50/4.50, 1 K)
FRI: Rich Hill (5 2/3 IP, ND, 3.18/1.24, 6 K)
SAT: Kyle Lohse (8 IP, W, 0.00/0.50, 6 K)
SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (DNP)
Week 7 Totals: 1-2, 37 1/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25 K
This week I'll hang my hat on terrific ratios and some bad run support, and thank my lucky stars that seven of the eight runs Big Fat Bartolo Colon allowed on Wednesday were unearned.
MON: Brett Anderson (OAK) v. Seattle Mariners (Jakubauskas)
It's hard to argue with Brian Tallet right now (2.78 ERA in last four starts) and Jonthan Sanchez has been quite good at home (2.08 ERA in three starts), but both are sizable risks as well. The Blue Jays are going through their first offensive drought (and I can't quite forget that five starts ago Tallet surrendered ten earned runs). Sanchez gets a weak offense (Atlanta), but not as weak as his own, and faces off against an imposing Ace (Javier Vazquez). Therefore, I'm going to roll the dice on young Brett Anderson, coming off the best start of his young career (6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 B, 5 K) on the road against a strong offense (Tampa Bay). This time he'll be in friendlier confines and gets a struggling lineup and a converted long reliever (6.10 ERA). Could this be his coming out party?
TUE: Kevin Correia (SDP) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Scherzer)
There's not a lot of good choices. You could go with Ricky Romero making his first start off the D.L. Nick Blackburn and Aaron Cook are coming off strong outing, but match up with tough lineups (Red Sox and Dodgers). I'll take Correia against the D-Backs, who have about half-a-dozen regulars hitting below the Mendoza line. Correia has a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. Maybe it's a sign that he's starting to stretch it out.
WED: Kensin Kawakami (ATL) @ San Francisco Giants (Johnson)
Wish somebody from the group of Brett Myers, Trevor Cahill, and Manny Parra was throwing on Tuesday (cross fingers). Kawakami is coming off of four straight quality starts (1.88 ERA), including an eight inning shutout masterpiece his last time out. Good way to build momentum for facing the league's worst offense.
THU: Randy Wolf (LAD) @ Chicago Cubs (Wells)
As I said of Wandy Rodriguez last week, it won't be too much longer that Randy Wolf is available on the waiver wire, what with his great overall numbers (2-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 46 K) and even better in his last five starts (1-0, 1.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 23 K).
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (DET) @ Baltimore Orioles (Bergeson)
The D-Train appears to be back on track. He's allowed only three earned in his last thirteen innings. His last two starts have been at home, so leaving the friendly confines is justifiably cause for concern. However, the Orioles have a measly 620 team OPS against left-handers this season (only Oakland is worse) and are not the most patient group, which bodes well. If you aren't comfortable boarding this train again just yet, you might check out Sean West, the new addition to the Marlins rotation.
SAT: Barry Zito (SFG) v. St. Louis Cardinals (Pineiro)
It's hard to recommend a mediocre lefty against any lineup featuring Albert Pujols. But, aside from "The Machine," the Cardinals lineup is pretty meager right now, with Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus still sidelined. Zito has posted a 2.36 ERA at home thusfar.
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (COL) v. San Diego Padres (Gaudin)
It was a a tough call between De La Rosa and Gil Meche (v. White Sox), so I'm going with the guy who faces the weaker offense (even if it is at Coors Field). If you need Ks, Jorge's your man, with 46 K in 46 IP so far this season.
Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]
MON: Randy Wolf (7 2/3 IP, ND, 2.35/1.04, 2 K)
TUE: Barry Zito (8 IP, L, 2.25/1.13, 3 K)
WED: Paul Maholm (6 IP, ND, 1.50/1.17, 7 K)
THU: Bartolo Colon (2 IP, L, 4.50/4.50, 1 K)
FRI: Rich Hill (5 2/3 IP, ND, 3.18/1.24, 6 K)
SAT: Kyle Lohse (8 IP, W, 0.00/0.50, 6 K)
SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (DNP)
Week 7 Totals: 1-2, 37 1/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25 K
This week I'll hang my hat on terrific ratios and some bad run support, and thank my lucky stars that seven of the eight runs Big Fat Bartolo Colon allowed on Wednesday were unearned.
Thursday, August 09, 2007
2007 Kisses and Curses - Part 1
One is tempted to wax poetic about the expectation with which every season begins. Players from the Diamondbacks to the Devil Rays pronounce, assuredly, their intentions for October. For some, undoubtedly, it is just another in the long string of cliches which comprise their dialogue with the media throughout the season. For many, however, these enthusiastic predictions are sincere, often among the only sincere statements they prove capable of. Similarly, as fans, and fantasy-junkies especially, we begin each season with pronouncements and predictions. Sleepers and keepers; steals and busts and locks; overrated and underrated; can't-miss prospects and falling stars. If we have the guts, around this time of year, in mid-August, we must size ourselves up. Sometimes we resemble the White Sox, the Giants, and the Athletics. All that spring training effusion was just so much hot air. Other times we are like Detroit, Cleveland, and Anaheim, right where we expected to be. And then, on those rare occasions, as with the Diamondbacks and the Mariners, there we are, but we're not exactly sure how it happened. This edition of The Sporting Hippeaux isn't about teams, it's about players. We've got those that have lived up to - no - exceeded our expectations: the Kisses. And those that have failed them: the Curses. We all know, regardless of spring platitudes, every year is a little of both.
Ryan Braun - 3B - Milwaukee Brewers (Kiss)
Ironically, since recalling the mighty Braun from Triple A on May 25, the Brewers are 29-39. That is, after starting the season 31-15. Nonetheless, Braun is not only the best rookie of 2007, he has been arguably the best hitter in the league ever since he joined it. Check this out. These are stats for some of the MVP front-runners since May 25:
Alex Rodriguez (991 OPS, .292 AVG, 18 HR, 63 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB)
Magglio Ordonez (897 OPS, .344 AVG, 6 HR, 42 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB)
Vladimir Guerrero (908 OPS, .325 AVG, 8 HR, 39 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB)
Prince Fielder (1009 OPS, .287 AVG, 20 HR, 47 R, 50 RBI, 0 SB)
Miguel Cabrera (1091 OPS, .350 AVG, 20 HR, 41 R, 49 RBI, 0 SB)
Ryan Howard (1070 OPS, .296 AVG, 26 HR, 52 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB)
Ryan Braun (1060 OPS, .349 AVG, 21 HR, 53 R, 55 RBI, 10 SB)
Besides telling you that the rumors of Miggy's weight problems and Ryan Howard's regression might have been a bit exaggerated, the numbers suggest that Braun was, like Pujols and Ichiro before him, an MVP candidate from the moment he stepped on the field.
Alex Gordon - 3B - Kansas City Royals (Curse)
It was not Braun, but Gordon, who got all the rookie hype going into the 2007 season. He was coming off a stellar performance at the 2006 Futures Game and, unlike Braun, he was given a starting role on opening day. Unfortunately, Gordon has followed in the footsteps of many preseason rookie-of-the-year favorites. Of the thirteen rookies with 250 plate appearances, he is 11th in AVG and OPS, 12th in SLG, 7th in HR, and 8th in RBI, despite having the 4th most at-bats. Despairing fantasy owners should remember in this case especially, this year's curse is next year's kiss.
Eric Byrnes - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks (Kiss)
...and vice versa. It's almost impossible not to root for Eric Byrnes. He shamelessly flirts with Fox anchor, Jeanne Zelasko, and employs the word "Dude" in every potential grammatical situation. And this season, for the first time, he is outplaying nearly every outfielder in the National League. He shouldn't have been reporting from McCovey Cove during the all-star game, he should've been starting in center field. But beware. Byrnes is the prototypical sell-high player. He's never shown skills like this before, he's over thirty, and despite his big contract, he's going to have lots of competition for playing time in the Arizona outfield in the next couple seasons. I hope he, like Gary Matthews Jr., is just a late-bloomer. His personality certainly suggests as much. Don't go putting $30 Million on it. Oops.
Nick Swisher - OF - Oakland Athletics (Curse)
In my 12-team Salary Cap Keeper league draft this April, Nick Swisher was the #1 pick. Spurred no doubt by accounts of his down-on-the-farm winter workout and his 35 HR/95 RBI performance in '06, this owner drafted Swisher ahead of guys like Dice-K, Prince Fielder, Sheffield, Helton, Francoeur, Sheets, and Robinson Cano. To be fair, had he fallen to me, I would've picked him ahead of all but Prince, Sheff, and Cano. When the season began it looked like a fair choice. In April and May Swisher accumulated 9 HR and 32 RBI, with a respectable average. Unfortunately, he has added only 5 HR and 23 RBI in the interceding months, while hovering around the Mendoza line. The one promising sign is that Swisher has cut back on his strikeouts (a discouraging 152 in '06), while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His OBP remains outstanding (.392) even during his power shortage. Many critics will suggest that the much-heralded Swisher has settled into the league as Adam Dunn Lite, but next year he will be 27, that magical number for baseball players, and there is still a fair amount to get excited about.
Erik Bedard - SP - Baltimore Orioles (Kiss)
Bedard is striking out hitters at an obscene rate. At this pace he will easily surpass the 250 K plateau, which hasn't been done since 2004, and could reach Big Unit-levels (he's currently on pace for about 275). During his current 8-game winning streak he has 80 K in 60 IP, with a 2.24 ERA and a .167 Batting Average Against. Whether it is the tutelage of Leo Mazzone or thet magic 27, Bedard has officially arrived as one of the few true Aces in the major leagues, alongside guys like Santana, Halladay, Zambrano, and Oswalt.
Dontrelle Willis - SP - Florida Marlins (Curse)
Of course, pitchers are more susceptible to chance and whimsy than any other set of players. The list of supposed aces who've had catastrophic seasons in '07 includes Cris Carpenter, Rich Harden, Kenny Rogers, Jose Contreras, Randy Johnson, Ervin Santana, Freddy Garcia, A. J. Burnett, and Barry Zito. These ten pitchers will make a combined $76 Million in 2007, but so far have accumulated a record of 40-66. Granted, many of them have spent significant stretches on the DL, which is why Willis seems to most fit the moniker "curse." The former Cy Young runner-up has not won a game since the end of May. He's dropped nine straight decisions. His ERA is a full run higher than in any of his previous four seasons. He's on pace to walk the most batters in his career, while striking out the least. Because of age and histories of injury or inconsistency, we could have probably foreseen the potential struggles of all these pitchers save Santana, Carpenter, and - especially - Willis.
Ryan Braun - 3B - Milwaukee Brewers (Kiss)
Ironically, since recalling the mighty Braun from Triple A on May 25, the Brewers are 29-39. That is, after starting the season 31-15. Nonetheless, Braun is not only the best rookie of 2007, he has been arguably the best hitter in the league ever since he joined it. Check this out. These are stats for some of the MVP front-runners since May 25:
Alex Rodriguez (991 OPS, .292 AVG, 18 HR, 63 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB)
Magglio Ordonez (897 OPS, .344 AVG, 6 HR, 42 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB)
Vladimir Guerrero (908 OPS, .325 AVG, 8 HR, 39 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB)
Prince Fielder (1009 OPS, .287 AVG, 20 HR, 47 R, 50 RBI, 0 SB)
Miguel Cabrera (1091 OPS, .350 AVG, 20 HR, 41 R, 49 RBI, 0 SB)
Ryan Howard (1070 OPS, .296 AVG, 26 HR, 52 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB)
Ryan Braun (1060 OPS, .349 AVG, 21 HR, 53 R, 55 RBI, 10 SB)
Besides telling you that the rumors of Miggy's weight problems and Ryan Howard's regression might have been a bit exaggerated, the numbers suggest that Braun was, like Pujols and Ichiro before him, an MVP candidate from the moment he stepped on the field.
Alex Gordon - 3B - Kansas City Royals (Curse)
It was not Braun, but Gordon, who got all the rookie hype going into the 2007 season. He was coming off a stellar performance at the 2006 Futures Game and, unlike Braun, he was given a starting role on opening day. Unfortunately, Gordon has followed in the footsteps of many preseason rookie-of-the-year favorites. Of the thirteen rookies with 250 plate appearances, he is 11th in AVG and OPS, 12th in SLG, 7th in HR, and 8th in RBI, despite having the 4th most at-bats. Despairing fantasy owners should remember in this case especially, this year's curse is next year's kiss.
Eric Byrnes - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks (Kiss)
...and vice versa. It's almost impossible not to root for Eric Byrnes. He shamelessly flirts with Fox anchor, Jeanne Zelasko, and employs the word "Dude" in every potential grammatical situation. And this season, for the first time, he is outplaying nearly every outfielder in the National League. He shouldn't have been reporting from McCovey Cove during the all-star game, he should've been starting in center field. But beware. Byrnes is the prototypical sell-high player. He's never shown skills like this before, he's over thirty, and despite his big contract, he's going to have lots of competition for playing time in the Arizona outfield in the next couple seasons. I hope he, like Gary Matthews Jr., is just a late-bloomer. His personality certainly suggests as much. Don't go putting $30 Million on it. Oops.
Nick Swisher - OF - Oakland Athletics (Curse)
In my 12-team Salary Cap Keeper league draft this April, Nick Swisher was the #1 pick. Spurred no doubt by accounts of his down-on-the-farm winter workout and his 35 HR/95 RBI performance in '06, this owner drafted Swisher ahead of guys like Dice-K, Prince Fielder, Sheffield, Helton, Francoeur, Sheets, and Robinson Cano. To be fair, had he fallen to me, I would've picked him ahead of all but Prince, Sheff, and Cano. When the season began it looked like a fair choice. In April and May Swisher accumulated 9 HR and 32 RBI, with a respectable average. Unfortunately, he has added only 5 HR and 23 RBI in the interceding months, while hovering around the Mendoza line. The one promising sign is that Swisher has cut back on his strikeouts (a discouraging 152 in '06), while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His OBP remains outstanding (.392) even during his power shortage. Many critics will suggest that the much-heralded Swisher has settled into the league as Adam Dunn Lite, but next year he will be 27, that magical number for baseball players, and there is still a fair amount to get excited about.
Erik Bedard - SP - Baltimore Orioles (Kiss)
Bedard is striking out hitters at an obscene rate. At this pace he will easily surpass the 250 K plateau, which hasn't been done since 2004, and could reach Big Unit-levels (he's currently on pace for about 275). During his current 8-game winning streak he has 80 K in 60 IP, with a 2.24 ERA and a .167 Batting Average Against. Whether it is the tutelage of Leo Mazzone or thet magic 27, Bedard has officially arrived as one of the few true Aces in the major leagues, alongside guys like Santana, Halladay, Zambrano, and Oswalt.
Dontrelle Willis - SP - Florida Marlins (Curse)
Of course, pitchers are more susceptible to chance and whimsy than any other set of players. The list of supposed aces who've had catastrophic seasons in '07 includes Cris Carpenter, Rich Harden, Kenny Rogers, Jose Contreras, Randy Johnson, Ervin Santana, Freddy Garcia, A. J. Burnett, and Barry Zito. These ten pitchers will make a combined $76 Million in 2007, but so far have accumulated a record of 40-66. Granted, many of them have spent significant stretches on the DL, which is why Willis seems to most fit the moniker "curse." The former Cy Young runner-up has not won a game since the end of May. He's dropped nine straight decisions. His ERA is a full run higher than in any of his previous four seasons. He's on pace to walk the most batters in his career, while striking out the least. Because of age and histories of injury or inconsistency, we could have probably foreseen the potential struggles of all these pitchers save Santana, Carpenter, and - especially - Willis.
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