In case it hasn't already become clear, you can expect to see a lot of Brewers coverage this season. The Crew, who have been among my favorite franchises ever since Doug Melvin took over as GM, have an especially high Narrative Likability Factor in 2011. As I discussed this offseason, with the free agency of Prince Fielder imminent, the Brewers are "going for it," as was clearly evidenced by the mortgaging of the farm system for the short-term services of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
One of the reasons to root for Milwaukee in 2011 is that, led by Melvin, the Brewers are among the franchises who have been "doing it right" according to the conventional wisdom regarding success in smaller markets. The core of the team is homegrown. With the exception of the ill-timed signing of Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee has avoided buying up free agents at a premium, instead extending young players from their own system at discount rates (Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, etc.) and handing out low-risk deals to veteran role players (Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Nyjer Morgan, etc.).
As a result, the Brewers not only have an impressive cast of talent, but they have an identity, as most of the core players have been together since they were minor-leaguers. That identity isn't only good for clubhouse camaraderie, but is also appealing to the fan base, which has quietly become one of the most supportive in the National League. Since Melvin took over in 2003, Brewers attendance has gone from 50% of capacity to over 80% of capacity, an increase of nearly 15,000 fans per game.
As was revealed by the Opening Day payroll numbers released earlier this week, Melvin's strategy for building a contender in Milwaukee has emphasized commitments from ownership, as well as deft drafting and player development, timely acquisitions, and improved marketing. The 2011 Brewers represent the largest percentage increase in payroll of any team in baseball since 2004, which happens to be Melvin's second year on the job. Unlike ownership in many other markets, the Brewers owners met improved support from the community with a deeper investment in the long term competitiveness in the team. Milwaukee's $85.5 Million Opening Day payroll puts them in the middle of the pack (#17) among all MLB franchises, but it represents a 211% increase since '04. Melvin grew this payroll gradually (in step with attendance) until he reached the plateau he's maintained pretty consistently since 2008.
Pundits like myself can commend Melvin all we want for his personnel decisions and his deft economizing, but the fact remains, he is nearing the point where he will be judged by his results. As fun as this collection of Brewers players are to watch, they've got only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance during Melvin's tenure. With the face of the franchise in his final season, it's imperative the Brewers improve upon that record. During the Opening Weekend against the reigning NL Central champs, the Cincinnati Reds, you could see that the pressure was on. The Brewers hit just .223 against the Reds, with an abysmal 26/5 K/BB ratio. Their bullpen got roughed up, including a painful three-run walkoff homer against closer John Axford on Opening Day.
But the Brewers bounced back in a major way this week, taking three in a row from Atlanta, another presumed NL powerhouse. Gallardo asserted his Ace status by stopping the losing streak with a dominant complete-game two-hitter and Axford netted saves in back-to-back appearances. The Brewers need to carry this momentum forward, as their performance in the season's first two months will say a lot about this team. They will have to face Atlanta and Cincinnati again, as well as Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles before Greinke's anticipated return. If they can stay above .500 during this opening stretch, Greinke's comeback could provide them with a little confidence going into interleague play.
(Greinke is due back sometime around the middle of May. Considering his injury is similar to that which delayed the start of Cliff Lee's season in 2010, I don't worry too much about his ability to stay on the field and pitch well once he returns. Lee, after all, was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball last year, despite his late start.)
The biggest challenge for the Brewers comes in June, when they open a 15-game tussle with some of the best teams in the American League. The schedule-makers did not do Milwaukee any favors. They will face the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road, as well as the Rays at home, and their "interleague rival," the AL Central Champion Twins, home and away. Four AL teams, all of which won 85 or more games in 2010 and all of whom are expected to perform at close to that level, if not better, in 2011. Compare that to Cincinnati, who gets the Yankees at home, skips the Red Sox entirely, and gets to play their rivalry series against the lowly Indians. Or the Cardinals, who somehow manage to avoid both New York and Boston, plus get six games against arguably the worst team in all of baseball, the Royals. It would be a substantial accomplishment for the Brewers to get near .500 against their AL opponents, while their primary rivals will have a significantly easier time of it.
It's important to note that, even when the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency this coming offseason, they will not be going back to the drawing board. Somewhat ingeniously, Melvin has gotten Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo under team control through 2015. Greinke, Marcum, and Corey Hart remain under contract through at least 2012. As such, it would be a mistake to argue that if they miss the playoffs in 2011 their window will absolutely be closed. However, their is no reason to believe the Reds will be getting any worse, while 2012 will bring the Cubs some much-needed salary relief, they could be major players in the free agent market this coming winter. While the NL Central is already a rather deep, competitive division, it could get even tougher in coming years. Yet another reason Milwaukee's management clearly feels their time is now.
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Friday, April 08, 2011
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher
It's almost upon us. The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week. In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason. There are still a few outstanding free agents. Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs. Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons. Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts. If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues. For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes. Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals
Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010. He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward. Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland. Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels. Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation. All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Matt Garza is Not Your Savior, Cubs Fans. Sorry.
The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays. Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central. I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.
Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.
It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.
Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.
Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.
Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.
I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.
UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.
Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.
It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.
Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.
Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.
Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.
I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.
UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.
Sunday, January 02, 2011
The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)
A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense). The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
Monday, November 22, 2010
...Oh, here's where all the sluggers are hiding. (Hot Stove Preview)
As promised, a peak at the most mouthwatering Hot Stove trade targets...
1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs
Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody
Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder. Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.
It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs. There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter. I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better. The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung. The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.
With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year. However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players. If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries. The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price. They also have already made a significant time investment. They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader. Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.
2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres
Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers
A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race. However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day. It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing. In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day. If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011. It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.
Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him. It could also limit his trade market. Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental. Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.
If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved. San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick
3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals
Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire. While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention. Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency. Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense. Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.
Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter. And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension. I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson
4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers
I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason. For starters, his agent is Scott Boras. We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player. There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday. In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI. He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better). He's kept his weight in check. He's shown great leadership. And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!
He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it. He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market). So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.
Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.
5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,
Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?). For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton. At last, you're ready to pull the trigger. You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business. So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...
...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch! "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"
Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power. When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010. He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him. He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).
Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running. In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.) He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home). He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically. And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.
Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds. But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career. Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood
Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...
6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets
Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start. It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated. Is he healthy?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash
7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres
Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th. Bell's market will never be better than it is right now. Sell! Sell! Sell!
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill
8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals
Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career. He's got one more year before free agency. This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental. Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore
9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels
He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young. Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen
10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays
Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career. He can be had for a song. The question is, even then, is he worth it?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler
1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs
Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody
Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder. Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.
It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs. There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter. I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better. The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung. The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.
With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year. However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players. If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries. The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price. They also have already made a significant time investment. They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader. Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.
2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres
Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers
A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race. However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day. It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing. In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day. If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011. It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.
Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him. It could also limit his trade market. Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental. Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.
If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved. San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick
3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals
Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire. While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention. Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency. Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense. Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.
Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter. And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension. I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson
4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers
I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason. For starters, his agent is Scott Boras. We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player. There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday. In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI. He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better). He's kept his weight in check. He's shown great leadership. And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!
He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it. He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market). So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.
Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.
5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,
Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?). For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton. At last, you're ready to pull the trigger. You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business. So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...
...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch! "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"
Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power. When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010. He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him. He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).
Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running. In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.) He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home). He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically. And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.
Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds. But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career. Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood
Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...
6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets
Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start. It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated. Is he healthy?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash
7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres
Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th. Bell's market will never be better than it is right now. Sell! Sell! Sell!
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill
8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals
Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career. He's got one more year before free agency. This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental. Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore
9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels
He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young. Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen
10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays
Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career. He can be had for a song. The question is, even then, is he worth it?
Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Set the DVR, it's Duels Week
With a third of the season in the bag, there's a lot to talk about this coming week, but I'd like to start by pointing out that there are a disproportionate number of really exciting pitching matchups slated for the first week of June, so if you're like me and you love nothing more than a pitchers duel, here's how you should set your calender for the first half of the week:
Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP
We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race. Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back. Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!
Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP
Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces. They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches. Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9). He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground. His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays. Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season. Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak. In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.
Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP
The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces. The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset. He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts. The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect. He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA. This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.
Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP
Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties. And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach. They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate. They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.
Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP
We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race. Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back. Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!
Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP
Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces. They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches. Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9). He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground. His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays. Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season. Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak. In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.
Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP
The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces. The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset. He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts. The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect. He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA. This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.
Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP
Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties. And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach. They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate. They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.
Thursday, May 06, 2010
Hippeaux's Mailbag
I finally posted a functional email address earlier this month (sorry about that). Since then, there has been a trickle of questions, mostly fantasy related. Here are some answers which I thought might be relevant for others:
"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric
I definitely deserve this. I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason. Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start. He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA). Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues. So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now. Silva's been a contributer. Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS). Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008. Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances). If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology. If they don't, expect more venom.
"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league. After a month, he's got zero wins. Should I try to trade him? I need pitching. What can I expect to get?" - Steve
I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year. As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues. That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke. Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.
After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.
His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky. Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs. Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.
Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter. And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten. At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason. These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.
"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric
I definitely deserve this. I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason. Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start. He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA). Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues. So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now. Silva's been a contributer. Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS). Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008. Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances). If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology. If they don't, expect more venom.
"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league. After a month, he's got zero wins. Should I try to trade him? I need pitching. What can I expect to get?" - Steve
I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year. As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues. That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke. Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.
After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.
His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky. Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs. Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.
Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter. And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten. At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason. These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.
"I know you've seen the PECOTA projections already. In the ESPN magazine Baseball Think Factory says that the Angels have only a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West. How can that be?" - Tim
I received this message before the season began, so I'll begin with the response the sent Tim at that time:
"I'm continually surprised by how poorly the 2010 Angels are performing in preseason simulations, which consistently have them finishing behind the Rangers, Mariners, and even the Athletics. I've said repeatedly that I think the rumors of the Angels demise have been greatly exaggerated. I don't expect they will win the division by ten games, as they did in '09, but I think they'll be at least an 85 win team and as safe a bet as anybody to win the AL West. My only explanation for the Angels poor performance in simulations is that they had several players who had career years in '09: Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, etc. Even Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu had among their best seasons. More often than not, regression is to be expected. I certainly think the younger players are capable of continuing to build on what they did in '09, but it is true that at some point guys like Abreu and Matsui will hit the wall. Will it be this year? I don't know."
It's still very early, but the Halos performance so far suggests the boys at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus get paid the "big bucks" for a reason. The Angels are 12-17 and, more significantly, their -43 run differential is better than only Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore (and not by that much). Still, it's a relatively small sample and they are only three games back, so one good week could be enough to get me right back on the Angels bandwagon.
I've watched Los Angeles quite a bit and I'll admit they've got some serious holes. The Brandon Wood experiment has been a complete bust and, unless something dramatic happens, I think will be put to rest before the end of May. Erick Aybar has not adapted to hitting leadoff and the Angels don't have anybody else who appears better suited to that role.
The starting pitching, which I expected to be the Angels strength, despite the departure of John Lackey, has been the team's most serious issue (5.00 ERA, 12th in A.L.). The hired guns, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro, have each shown improvement in recent starts after tough Aprils. I expect both will be at least serviceable behind the clear Ace, Jered Weaver. But Joe Saunders has been especially abysmal (1-5, 7.04 ERA). The Angels top prospect, Trevor Bell, continues to dominate at AAA, so don't be surprised if Saunders loses his spot.
Mike Scioscia has never been afraid of shaking things up. Don't be surprised if Saunders, Wood, and Brian Fuentes soon find the end of their leashes. The Angels depth of options, combined with the fact that no team in the AL West appears ready to run away from the rest, are cause for continued optimism.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
21st-Century Cy
Not every year does a relatively unheralded pitcher come, as though from out of nowhere, to win his profession's most prestigious award. It has happened, however, in each of the last two seasons, and seven times in the last decade (during which, of course, twenty Cy Youngs have been awarded.)
Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career. The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.
In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived." Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen. That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).
The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.
There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.
And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.
So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy? Here are some criteria for making the prediction. With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).
Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005. So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.
I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect. Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela). Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30. With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates:
Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career. The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.
In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived." Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen. That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).
The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.
There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.
And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.
So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy? Here are some criteria for making the prediction. With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).
Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005. So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.
I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect. Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela). Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30. With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates:
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "Mark Buehrle may not be much to look at, but he's got a great personality." (Starting Pitcher Preview)
Rather than ranking hundreds of pitchers in a fashion which can be frustrating to manage during your draft or auction, I suggest grouping pitchers according to types. This can be done in a number of ways, not necessarily exclusively those that I've outlined below, but I like to aim for getting at least one pitcher from each of my tiers (with the exception of #7, where I've put a number of guys who I will be flat-out ignoring). You can still take a second or third guy from any one of the categories, if it fits your strategy or they are being undervalued, but this method will protect you somewhat from ending up with too many injury risks, too many unproven youngsters, too many low-strikeout veterans, or overspending on pitching in the early rounds. It's not a perfect system, but I can boast that in the keeper league I invented it for I have now led the league in pitching staff scoring for three consecutive seasons, even though I only spend about 25% of my money on pitching.
Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft. Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group. However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11). You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.
#1: Bonafide Aces
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows. Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft. There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities. Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.
You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top. I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin. If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class. Same goes for Carpenter and Lee. Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.
#2: Aces?
1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)
I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher. All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace. Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.
It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season. Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball. There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers. We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.
#3: Rubber Arms
1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated. In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list. But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart. The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.
I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins. His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts. He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009. It's a fine situation.
Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft. Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group. However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11). You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.
#1: Bonafide Aces
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows. Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft. There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities. Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.
You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top. I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin. If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class. Same goes for Carpenter and Lee. Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.
#2: Aces?
1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)
I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher. All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace. Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.
It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season. Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball. There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers. We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.
#3: Rubber Arms
1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated. In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list. But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart. The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.
I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins. His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts. He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009. It's a fine situation.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #30: The Kansas City Royals
Last, but not...well, actually...
There are a number of baseball franchises which vie for the title of "Best Punchline." The Pirates recently set a record of prolonged futility by finishing below .500 for seventeen consecutive seasons. The Nationals/Expos have made just one playoff appearance in their 41 year history. And, of course, there are the accursed Cubs, who championship drought recently extended beyond the century mark.
But for pure sporting incompetence, it's hard to argue with the Kansas City Royals. They won the World Series in 1985 and for a few years thereafter were contenders in the AL West. Since the late eighties, however, the Royals have managed a winning record only three times (once during the strike-shortened '94 season) and have not returned to the postseason since their '85 championship.
In recent years, they have grown more and more woeful, as they've featured eight managers in their past eight seasons and cracked 100 losses four times. In the tenure of current General Manager, Dayton Moore, they have become a kind of anachronism, a franchise which seems steadfastly determined to defy the evolutions of their industry...and not in a good way.
In 2009, FanGraphs ranked 154 players according to Wins Above Replacement. Of those 154, only eight finished below replacement level. And the man who finished 154th was almost a full win worse than the guy at 153 (Aubrey Huff). That man was Yuniesky Betancourt, the former Mariner shortstop who was Moore's primary 2009 acquisition. Betancourt wasn't just the worst player in baseball, he was the worst player by a long shot.
For Dayton Moore, this is just the most dramatic instance of his stubbornly standing in defiance of "new-fangled" statistical metrics. This offseason alone he signed three players who score extraordinarily low in categories like WAR, UZR, and OPS: Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Rick Ankiel. And for this reason he's become the scourge of sabermetric analysts like Rob Neyer, who happens to also be a Royals fan.
But while Moore is eviscerated by sportswriters (in this rare instance, the sabermetricians and the traditionalists seem mostly in agreement) he has the full endorsement of Kansas City ownership, which recently extended his contract through the 2013 season. Unfortunately, that probably assures that Royals fans are looking at four more years of absolutely dismal baseball.
There are a number of baseball franchises which vie for the title of "Best Punchline." The Pirates recently set a record of prolonged futility by finishing below .500 for seventeen consecutive seasons. The Nationals/Expos have made just one playoff appearance in their 41 year history. And, of course, there are the accursed Cubs, who championship drought recently extended beyond the century mark.
But for pure sporting incompetence, it's hard to argue with the Kansas City Royals. They won the World Series in 1985 and for a few years thereafter were contenders in the AL West. Since the late eighties, however, the Royals have managed a winning record only three times (once during the strike-shortened '94 season) and have not returned to the postseason since their '85 championship.
In recent years, they have grown more and more woeful, as they've featured eight managers in their past eight seasons and cracked 100 losses four times. In the tenure of current General Manager, Dayton Moore, they have become a kind of anachronism, a franchise which seems steadfastly determined to defy the evolutions of their industry...and not in a good way.
In 2009, FanGraphs ranked 154 players according to Wins Above Replacement. Of those 154, only eight finished below replacement level. And the man who finished 154th was almost a full win worse than the guy at 153 (Aubrey Huff). That man was Yuniesky Betancourt, the former Mariner shortstop who was Moore's primary 2009 acquisition. Betancourt wasn't just the worst player in baseball, he was the worst player by a long shot.
For Dayton Moore, this is just the most dramatic instance of his stubbornly standing in defiance of "new-fangled" statistical metrics. This offseason alone he signed three players who score extraordinarily low in categories like WAR, UZR, and OPS: Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Rick Ankiel. And for this reason he's become the scourge of sabermetric analysts like Rob Neyer, who happens to also be a Royals fan.
But while Moore is eviscerated by sportswriters (in this rare instance, the sabermetricians and the traditionalists seem mostly in agreement) he has the full endorsement of Kansas City ownership, which recently extended his contract through the 2013 season. Unfortunately, that probably assures that Royals fans are looking at four more years of absolutely dismal baseball.
Friday, October 16, 2009
BBA Awards Ballot: Cy Young (AL)
Much to my surprise and glee, the BBA Rookie of the Year in the NL went to Andrew McCutchen. Check it out. The BBA voters weren't at all swayed by Chris Coghlan's high batting average or the gaudy ERA of J.A. Happ, resoundingly supporting McCutchen, who garnered twelve of the twenty first-place votes and 65 total points. Tommy Hanson finished second with 50 points and Happ third with 27 points. Let's hope the BBWAA is as thoughtful in their selections. On the AL side, the BBA went with Andrew Bailey (48 pts.), followed by Rick Porcello (36) and Elvis Andrus (28).
I've had a hard time deciding in which league to cast my Cy Young ballot. In the end, laziness got the better of me. I, like most people, believe Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, and Adam Wainwright belong on the NL ballot, but deciding upon their order was going to require a parsing of hairs which frankly exceeded my patience this weekend. Instead, let's check on the AL, where things are slightly more cut and dry:
3. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 240 IP, 269 K/63 BB, 8.2 WAR
I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Felix Hernandez or C. C. Sabathia in this spot, but Verlander sold me on his candidacy with three excellent starts to finish the season, when the Tigers needed him most. I'm also partial to pitchers who go deep into games (see Halladay, Roy). Verlander was certainly that. He led the league in innings (and also strikeouts). Fourteen times Verlander pitched in the eighth or beyond. He threw three hundred more pitches (3931) than anybody in baseball, the highest total for a pitcher since 2005. It's worth noting that Verlander has been willing to take this kind of "abuse" despite the fact that he has yet to sign his first big deal. The Tigers Ace is still two years away from free agency. Hopefully, Jim Leyland won't destroy his arm before he gets a crack at a Sabathia-sized payday.
2. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 239 IP, 208 K/35 BB, 7.3 WAR
It will surprise exactly nobody that I'm placing Halladay higher than the average voter. He's been my favorite pitcher and one of my favorite players for years. However, this isn't exactly favoritism to the detriment of rationale. Halladay did lead all of baseball, again, in complete games (9) and shutouts (4). His K/BB ratio (5.94) also led both leagues and his pitches per plate appearance (3.52) was tied for lowest in the AL (with Nick Blackburn). He was third in the AL in ERA, second in innings pitched, tied for fourth in wins, and fifth in strikouts.
In my mind, what really separates Halladay from the other excellent American League pitchers of 2009 is the quality of his competition. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays finished 1, 3, and 5 in the AL in scoring this season. Roy Halladay had to make 15(!) of his 32 starts against those three teams. He went 6-7 (2.97 ERA) against them. He went 11-3 (2.62 ERA) against everybody else. The strength of his competition pushes him ahead of bigger winners like Sabathia, Verlander, and Hernandez. If he had, say, two more starts against the Royals and the A's instead of New York and Boston, he'd likely be sneaking up towards #1 on most ballots.
1. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals
16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 229 1/3 IP, 242 K/51 BB, 9.4 WAR
Greinke probably punched his ticket with the BBWAA when he won his sixteenth game. (Fernando Velenzuela remains the only starting pitcher to take home a Cy Young with less than sixteen wins, something Tim Lincecum fans would probably rather not hear.) In truth, Greinke should win it regardless. He had a downright dominating season, posting the best ERA in the AL since Pedro's legend-making 1999 season (18-6, 1.74). And, of course, his win total was probably considerably suppressed by playing for the Royals. Six times Greinke went seven or more innings allowing one earned run or less and didn't get a win. A dozen times he registered a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision.
It's great to see this kind of comeback story as well. As recently as 2006 Greinke was suffering from such severe depression and social anxiety that he had to take some time off from the game and seek professional help. In an interview with the Kansas City Star he described an amazing form of psychological transference where he believed his unhappiness was the result of being a hitter trapped in a pitcher's body:
"I thought that was why I hated baseball. I thought it was because I wanted to hit...At least once a month I'd be crying to myself while I'm going to bed with a bat in my hand, just swinging it...I was waiting for a bad season. I was even hoping I'd have a bad season so I could be a hitter or be done with baseball period...As soon as I started taking the medication, I started feeling better and I really didn't have any desire to go back to being a hitter anymore."
(Kansas City Star, 2/22/07)
Talk about a ringing endorsement. Pharmaceutical companies are salivating. A baseball player hasn't sold this many pills since Rafael Palmeiro hawked Viagra (oh yes, that did happen). Seriously though, one has to applaud the Royals for their patience and support, and for having the wisdom to sign Greinke to a four year, $38 Million contract right before his breakout season.
Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez (SEA), C. C. Sabathia (NYY), Jon Lester (BOS)
I've had a hard time deciding in which league to cast my Cy Young ballot. In the end, laziness got the better of me. I, like most people, believe Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, and Adam Wainwright belong on the NL ballot, but deciding upon their order was going to require a parsing of hairs which frankly exceeded my patience this weekend. Instead, let's check on the AL, where things are slightly more cut and dry:
3. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 240 IP, 269 K/63 BB, 8.2 WAR
I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Felix Hernandez or C. C. Sabathia in this spot, but Verlander sold me on his candidacy with three excellent starts to finish the season, when the Tigers needed him most. I'm also partial to pitchers who go deep into games (see Halladay, Roy). Verlander was certainly that. He led the league in innings (and also strikeouts). Fourteen times Verlander pitched in the eighth or beyond. He threw three hundred more pitches (3931) than anybody in baseball, the highest total for a pitcher since 2005. It's worth noting that Verlander has been willing to take this kind of "abuse" despite the fact that he has yet to sign his first big deal. The Tigers Ace is still two years away from free agency. Hopefully, Jim Leyland won't destroy his arm before he gets a crack at a Sabathia-sized payday.
2. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 239 IP, 208 K/35 BB, 7.3 WAR
It will surprise exactly nobody that I'm placing Halladay higher than the average voter. He's been my favorite pitcher and one of my favorite players for years. However, this isn't exactly favoritism to the detriment of rationale. Halladay did lead all of baseball, again, in complete games (9) and shutouts (4). His K/BB ratio (5.94) also led both leagues and his pitches per plate appearance (3.52) was tied for lowest in the AL (with Nick Blackburn). He was third in the AL in ERA, second in innings pitched, tied for fourth in wins, and fifth in strikouts.
In my mind, what really separates Halladay from the other excellent American League pitchers of 2009 is the quality of his competition. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays finished 1, 3, and 5 in the AL in scoring this season. Roy Halladay had to make 15(!) of his 32 starts against those three teams. He went 6-7 (2.97 ERA) against them. He went 11-3 (2.62 ERA) against everybody else. The strength of his competition pushes him ahead of bigger winners like Sabathia, Verlander, and Hernandez. If he had, say, two more starts against the Royals and the A's instead of New York and Boston, he'd likely be sneaking up towards #1 on most ballots.
1. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 229 1/3 IP, 242 K/51 BB, 9.4 WAR
Greinke probably punched his ticket with the BBWAA when he won his sixteenth game. (Fernando Velenzuela remains the only starting pitcher to take home a Cy Young with less than sixteen wins, something Tim Lincecum fans would probably rather not hear.) In truth, Greinke should win it regardless. He had a downright dominating season, posting the best ERA in the AL since Pedro's legend-making 1999 season (18-6, 1.74). And, of course, his win total was probably considerably suppressed by playing for the Royals. Six times Greinke went seven or more innings allowing one earned run or less and didn't get a win. A dozen times he registered a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision.
It's great to see this kind of comeback story as well. As recently as 2006 Greinke was suffering from such severe depression and social anxiety that he had to take some time off from the game and seek professional help. In an interview with the Kansas City Star he described an amazing form of psychological transference where he believed his unhappiness was the result of being a hitter trapped in a pitcher's body:
"I thought that was why I hated baseball. I thought it was because I wanted to hit...At least once a month I'd be crying to myself while I'm going to bed with a bat in my hand, just swinging it...I was waiting for a bad season. I was even hoping I'd have a bad season so I could be a hitter or be done with baseball period...As soon as I started taking the medication, I started feeling better and I really didn't have any desire to go back to being a hitter anymore."
(Kansas City Star, 2/22/07)
Talk about a ringing endorsement. Pharmaceutical companies are salivating. A baseball player hasn't sold this many pills since Rafael Palmeiro hawked Viagra (oh yes, that did happen). Seriously though, one has to applaud the Royals for their patience and support, and for having the wisdom to sign Greinke to a four year, $38 Million contract right before his breakout season.
Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez (SEA), C. C. Sabathia (NYY), Jon Lester (BOS)
Friday, May 15, 2009
Three Zeros
As of the start of play on Friday, 74 pitchers had thrown 40+ major-league innings so far this season. Of them, only three had yet to allow a home run. The first probably won't surprise you. Zack Greinke has surrendered only a dozen extra-base hits (eleven doubles and one triple) in 53 innings so far. The other two have been getting far less press.
Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros
Way-Rod has been a popular streaming option for a couple of seasons, mainly because of his home/road splits.
'07
H: 6-3, 2.94
R: 3-10, 6.37
'08
H: 5-5, 2.99
R: 4-2, 4.34
'09
H: 2-1, 0.67
R: 2-1, 3.24
As you can see, while Wandy continues to dominate at home, his numbers on the road have also been getting progressively better. He strikes out close to a batter an inning and has improved his ground-ball ratios in each of the last three years, no doubt assisting his limitation of the long ball. Here's the bad news. Houston has a mediocre offense (last in the NL Central in run production) and a bad bullpen (5.03 ERA) and Wandy has only pitched one shutout in his career, so he's not a safe bet to win 15 games, even if he continues to pitch excellently. Wandy is also, already, 30-years-old, so for him to improve dramatically upon his 3.54 ERA from last season would be highly unusual. On the other hand...
Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
With the exception of his HR Allowed, Ubaldo's stats for 2009 don't look that great. However, in his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 5.00 K/BB rate. The latter number is important because that has always been Jimenez's Achilles heel. Since he came up during Colorado's amazing stretch drive in 2007, Jimenez is 4-10 with a 5.24 ERA in games in which he walks four or more. In his other 37 starts he is 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA. That's an especially good ERA when you consider that Ubaldo has to make half his starts at Coors Field.
More importantly, Ubaldo is still only 25, has dynamic stuff, including a fastball that touches triple digits and a classic Darryl Kile curveball. If this is evidence, as I believe it is, that Ubaldo moving towards consistent control of his arsenal, he has a much, much higher ceiling than Rodriguez, and possibly as high as Greinke.
In the end my point is this: THESE GUYS ARE STILL AVAILABLE IN MOST LEAGUES. Pick them up pronto. They have the kind of high-reward potential that is necessary to win championships.
Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros
Way-Rod has been a popular streaming option for a couple of seasons, mainly because of his home/road splits.
'07
H: 6-3, 2.94
R: 3-10, 6.37
'08
H: 5-5, 2.99
R: 4-2, 4.34
'09
H: 2-1, 0.67
R: 2-1, 3.24
As you can see, while Wandy continues to dominate at home, his numbers on the road have also been getting progressively better. He strikes out close to a batter an inning and has improved his ground-ball ratios in each of the last three years, no doubt assisting his limitation of the long ball. Here's the bad news. Houston has a mediocre offense (last in the NL Central in run production) and a bad bullpen (5.03 ERA) and Wandy has only pitched one shutout in his career, so he's not a safe bet to win 15 games, even if he continues to pitch excellently. Wandy is also, already, 30-years-old, so for him to improve dramatically upon his 3.54 ERA from last season would be highly unusual. On the other hand...
Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
With the exception of his HR Allowed, Ubaldo's stats for 2009 don't look that great. However, in his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 5.00 K/BB rate. The latter number is important because that has always been Jimenez's Achilles heel. Since he came up during Colorado's amazing stretch drive in 2007, Jimenez is 4-10 with a 5.24 ERA in games in which he walks four or more. In his other 37 starts he is 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA. That's an especially good ERA when you consider that Ubaldo has to make half his starts at Coors Field.
More importantly, Ubaldo is still only 25, has dynamic stuff, including a fastball that touches triple digits and a classic Darryl Kile curveball. If this is evidence, as I believe it is, that Ubaldo moving towards consistent control of his arsenal, he has a much, much higher ceiling than Rodriguez, and possibly as high as Greinke.
In the end my point is this: THESE GUYS ARE STILL AVAILABLE IN MOST LEAGUES. Pick them up pronto. They have the kind of high-reward potential that is necessary to win championships.
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