2011 Fantasy Baseball Rookies

The following list anticipates actual production of rookies in standard 5X5 fantasy formats.  This is not a "top prospects" list, which is why you won't see Bryce Harper or Mike Trout anywhere one it.  Under consideration is not only talent, but also age, opportunity, franchise, ballpark, and positional eligibility.

1.  Domonic Brown - RF - Philadelphia Phillies

Brown managed an OPS above 920 and a batting average above .300 at each of the three highest minor-league levels.  He's a five-tool talent.  He's got a decent eye and a low strikeout rate.  Best of all, for fantasy owners, he'll open the season with a starting position, hitting amidst a thunderous lineup, in a power-friendly ballpark.  If there is a 2011 version of Jason Heyward, he's it.

2.  Jeremy Hellickson - SP - Tampa Bay Rays

One of the biggest upshots of the Matt Garza deal was that it made room in Tampa's rotation for Hellickson.  He will be the most expensive rookie in most fantasy auctions because he had a very impressive and well-publicized debut in August of last year, when he won three consecutive starts while filling in for Jeff Niemann.  Be forewarned, however, even premier starting pitching prospects like David Price and Tommy Hanson, have experienced growing pains in their first full seasons.  Hellickson's maturation process is further complicated by the fact that he has to pitch in the loaded AL East.  I like Hellickson as much as anybody, but I probably won't own him in many leagues this year, because the price is too high.

3.  Brandon Allen - 1B - Arizona D-Backs

I don't know if he's technically a rookie, since he's gotten an extended cup of coffee in each of the last two seasons, but this will be Allen's first full year in the big leagues.  Coming out of the D-Backs system, he's something of an under-the-radar talent, but he's got everything one looks for in a fantasy first-baseman: awesome power (.541 SLG @ AAA), very good eye (83 BB/95 K in 2010), and even a little bit of speed (14 SB in '10).  His average probably won't be great (although he did hit .298 in '09), but Arizona's park certainly plays to his strengths and he's got to be the odds-on favorite to replace Mark Reynolds as Justin Upton's protection.

4.  J. P. Arencibia - C - Toronto Blue Jays

While your fellow owners are scrambling for Jesus Montero, who could very well spend the entirety of 2011 at AAA, do yourself a favor and grab Arencibia instead.  Montero is probably the better prospect long-term, but Arencibia had much better numbers at AAA last season (986 OPS, 32 HR, .301 AVG) and, most importantly, he'll open the season as the Blue Jays primary backstop.  Arencibia's can hit homers (averaged 27 HR per season in the minors), and, as Jose Bautista & Co. proved in 2010, Toronto is a very good place to be a power-hitter.

5.  Tsuyoshi Nishioka - 2B/SS - Minnesota Twins

It's extremely hard to predict how Japanese players will perform in the MLB.  For every Ichiro, Dice-K, or Godzilla, there is a Kaz Matsui, Kosuke Fukudome, or Hideki Irabu.  What we do know about Nishioka is that the Twins, by trading away J. J. Hardy and allowing Orlando Hudson to walk, have committed to playing him in their middle infield.  There's also a fair chance he'll start the season hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.  That's a favorable situation.  In Japan, he showed good discipline, decent speed, and power...for his position.  And that's the key.  Middle infield talent doesn't come into the league very often, so it's worth grabbing a 26-year-old with significant upside, even if his overall numbers won't necessarily compare to some of the guys I rank below him.  

6.  Freddie Freeman - 1B - Atlanta Braves

Freeman probably doesn't have as much long-term upside as many of the prospects ranked below him, but what he does have in 2011 is a starting job, as the Braves elected not to pursue any free agent first-basemen.  Freeman's '10 numbers at AAA - .319 AVG, 898 OPS, 18 HR, 87 RBI - justify that decision, but don't necessarily scream "Rookie of the Year."  He plays a position with many preferable veteran options, so don't overpay, but 2010 Gaby Sanchez is probably a reasonable comparison.  His big advantage, like Sanchez, is that he doesn't have the name recognition of Hellickson, Brown, or Jennings, so he'll probably still be available in the final rounds of your draft, at which point he's got a very commendable risk-to-reward ratio. 

7.  Desmond Jennings - LF - Tampa Bay Rays

Jennings has a hard act to follow, as he replaces arguably the best outfielder in all of baseball.  He's also not completely absent of competition, as there a plenty of good young players trying to earn roster spots in Tampa.  Don't be surprised if the Rays elect to give Jennings a couple more "Super Two" months in AAA.  He didn't exactly light it up in 2010 (.278 AVG, 756 OPS).  That said, I think Jennings has a great future and with a career .384 OBP and 84% success rate, he promises to be an excellent source of runs and steals as soon as he enters the league.  Don't mistake him for a five-tool player, however.  He's got great speed, a great batter's eye, and plays good defense, but as yet he hasn't developed much power (.415 SLG @ AAA) and has been prone to occasional slumps, especially when starting new levels.

8.  Lorenzo Cain - CF - Kansas City Royals

With guys like Melky Cabrera and Mitch Maier hanging around, there's no guarantee Cain will be Kansas City's Opening Day centerfielder.  However, it's a pretty safe bet he'll be holding down that position be midseason.  Cain looked very good in a brief stint with the Brewers at the end of 2010 and was made one of the key pieces in the Zack Greinke deal.  He's got the tools to be an excellent leadoff hitter (.317 AVG, .402 OBP, 9 3B, 26 SB in 84 games between AA and AAA in '10).

9.  Mike Moustakas - 3B - Kansas City Royals

Like Cain, the only thing stopping Moustakas from breaking camp with the Royals is the "Super Two" rule.  He'll be one of the first players promoted in June and will likely hit in the middle of the Royals order soon thereafter.  He could very well be a Rookie of the Year candidate, even with the late start, just as Buster Posey was last year.  Is he the next Ryan Braun?  Maybe...but probably not.

10.  Chris Sale - RP - Chicago White Sox

Sale sailed through the minors (that's the second time I've made that joke this week, tee hee).  He'll be fighting for the closer role in Chicago during Spring Training.  I think he gets it.  High-upside rookie closers win fantasy leagues (see Feliz, Neftali).

11.  Dayan Viciedo - 3B - Chicago White Sox

Nobody seemed to notice that 21-year-old Dayan Viciedo bashed 20 HR in half a season at AAA than joined the major-league club for about six weeks and hit .308 with an 840 OPS.  Like his close friend, Alexei Ramirez, Viciedo is going to struggle with his plate discipline (.313 OBP in the minors), but he's a power stud at a very young age, and at this moment looks like the probable starter at third base in Chicago (he'll have competition from another rookie, Brent Morel).  I don't imagine he'll contend for Rookie of the Year, but he could play well enough to stick in the majors.  Third base is currently one of the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball, so you could do worse than snagging a kid who'll get you 20+ HR at the very end of your deep-league draft.  

12.  Dustin Ackley - 2B - Seattle Mariners

At this point, it appears the Mariners are heading into 2011 expecting the #2 pick in the '09 draft to be their Opening Day second-baseman.  There is nothing about his 2010 campaign that suggests he will be a productive player immediately.  He showed no power (7 HR, .410 SLG), only moderate speed (10 SB), and hit a modest .267.  He did show excellent discipline (75 BB/79 K, .368 OBP) which bodes well for his long-term prospects, but with Seattle's poorly offense and tough ballpark, I just can't see Ackley having a stellar rookie campaign.  That said, as I pointed out earlier, high-upside middle-infielders are a rare breed indeed, so Ackley should be owned in keeper leagues and deep leagues, and everybody should pay careful attention to how he does this spring.

13.  Leslie Anderson - 1B - Tampa Bay Rays

As a 28-year-old Cuban defector, Anderson has snuck in under-the-radar of most prospect analysts.  Sure, he's old for a rookie, but that's not exactly his fault.  He moved quickly through the Rays system in 2010, accumulating solid numbers at each level.  He doesn't have prototypical first-base power, but he'll hit for a high average.  Most importantly, at this point it looks like he has the inside track to replace Carlos Pena.  The Rays will probably bill it as an open competition between him and Dan Johnson this spring, but after failing to top the Mendoza line when the Rays handed him a starting job at the end of last season, Johnson's got to be running out of chances.

14.  Craig Kimbrel - RP - Atlanta Braves

I think Jonny Venters will get the first crack at the closer's job in Atlanta, but many people think it will go to Kimbrel and there's no denying he's got the talent for it.  In deep leagues, even if he isn't pitching in the ninth, he'll be well worth owning just for his ability to rack up strikeouts at an alarming rate and make solid contributions to your ERA and WHIP.

15.  Mike Minor - SP - Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the place to go for rookie strikeout artists.  Mike Minor will probably struggle a bit with his control, but he's got an outstanding strikeout rate for a starting pitcher (10.9 K/9 in 2010).  Right now he's the odds-on favorite to slot in the back of Atlanta's strong rotation.  He got some experience down the stretch last year, so the majors won't be a total shock.  Could be a decent sleeper candidate for NL Rookie of the Year.

16.  Jenrry Mejia - SP - New York Mets

Mejia looked pretty good as a reliever early in 2010, so the Mets sent him back to the minors to convert him into a starter.  The 21-year-old responded by posting a 1.28 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 45 K in 42 innings across three different levels.  He'll be back in New York to begin 2011, slotted into the back end of the Mets rotation.  It's a notoriously good place to pitch, so even if there are some growing pains, Mejia could end up with solid fantasy numbers.

17.  Mark Rogers - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

The #5 pick in the '04 draft, Rogers moved slower through the system than the Brewers might have liked, due to a surgery that cost him more than two full seasons.  But in the last two years, Rogers has made significant strides.  He'll enter the spring with an opportunity to battle Manny Parra and Chris Narveson for the last spot in the rotation.  The Brewers are "going for it" in 2011, so service time consideration should be ignored if Rogers proves himself ready to contribute to that goal.

18.  Jake McGee - SP - Tampa Bay Rays

He may have to wait until midseason, but at some point this year McGee will get his opportunity to contribute at the major league level, either as a starter or possibly as the Rays closer.  Watch carefully how he performs in Spring Training.  He's a sleeper candidate to start the year at the back of the bullpen.

19.  Aroldis Chapman - RP - Cincinnati Reds

I'd like to rank him much, much higher, because there's no denying his talent warrants it, but with a dearth of solid starting pitching on the Reds and a top-flight closer in their bullpen, there's little reason to predict Chapman will evolve beyond his set-up man role in 2011.  Even so, I'd expect he'll scavenge his share of wins and saves, as well as pile up a whole bunch of strikeouts, so you could do a lot worse in this rookie crop.

20.  Jesus Montero - C - New York Yankees

Unfortunately, Montero's fantasy impact is entirely dictated by the fate's of Russell Martin and Jorge Posada.  If the veterans stay healthy and play even moderately well, Montero will probably linger in the minors for another season.  However, if he does get an opportunity, there's a strong chance he'll hit the ground running and catchers with his kind of impact bat are, as Buster Posey proved this past year, game-changers, both for their real and their fantasy franchises.

21.  Kyle Drabek - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

When the Jays tell you that Drabek is in competition to make the rotation straight out of Spring Training, don't listen to them.  Drabek's ETA is June 15th, at best, because there is no reason for the Jays to start his service clock any earlier than that.  They've got a stable of other interesting starting pitchers and they will want to get the most they possibly can out of the major fruit of the Doc Halladay trade.  Drabek did do everything he was supposed to in 2010.  He pitched lights out at AA (14-9, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).  He'll be in Toronto soon enough, but the AL East can be cruel to rookie pitchers, no matter how talented they are.

22.  Martin Perez - SP - Texas Rangers

Perez is probably the most anticipated pitching prospect in baseball.  However, like Montero, he is not assured a spot on the major-league roster in 2011.  Even without Cliff Lee, the Rangers have a nice stable of arms, many of whom are much further along in the development process than Perez, who is just 19-years-old and didn't exactly light up AA (5.96 ERA, 1.68 WHIP).  There's still a strong likelihood he'll be in Arlington by October, but the Rangers have a history of introducing their young arms as relievers (Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Kirkman, etc.), so Perez's immediate future could be in middle relief, where he has little fantasy value.

23.  Tim Collins - RP - Kansas City Royals

Collins is definitely the best thing to come out of the Rick Ankiel experiment for Kansas City.  He won't make many lists of the top 25 prospects in the country, because he's a reliever, but maybe he should.  His minor-league stats are a little obscene.  Last season, between AA and AAA, he struck out 108 batters in 71 innings.  His overall ERA was 2.02.  A 21-year-old who already has 223 innings of professional relief under his belt, he's got a career 2.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9.  Collins won't start the season in Kansas City, but I bet he ends it as the Royals closer.  The Zack Greinke trade confirmed that Kansas City has committed to at least two and probably three more years of rebuilding.  One would presume that means Joakim Soria will be available at the trade deadline, if not before, as K.C. attempts to further its stockpile of prospects.  Collins is Soria's heir apparent and could be good for double-digit saves given a couple months in the role.

24.  Michael Pineda - SP - Seattle Mariners

After a very busy offseason in 2010, the Mariners have been more or less silent in 2011.  Unless they make a flurry of moves between now and Opening Day, it seems likely that Pineda, like Dustin Ackley, will make the major-league roster, probably even the rotation.  I'm not sure he's "ready," given his 4.76 ERA in a dozen starts at AAA, but opportunity is as important to fantasy relevance as talent.  His ballpark works to his advantage, as does his division, so Pineda could manage respectable stats even as a work in progress.

25. Yunesky Maya - SP - Washington Nationals

The Cuban defector's numbers were not great in five starts at the tail end of last year, but Maya's got the inside track to be in the Nats rotation and there's no denying he's got stuff.

Other Rookies/Prospects Worth Following:

Yonder Alonso - 1B - Cincinnati Reds
Chris Carter - 1B - Oakland Athletics
Brandon Belt - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants
Fernando Martinez - OF - New York Mets
Jason Kipnis - 2B - Cleveland Indians

What's left to prove...

With Stephen Strasburg optioned to AA, Jason Heyward penciled into the Braves Opening Day lineup, and Phil Hughes confirmed as the Yankees fifth starter, it may feel like March is coming to an anticlimactic end.  Here are the best remaining storylines heading into the final week of Spring Training.

S-Rod

Every year there is an off-the-radar player who dominates the Grapefruit League and unexpectedly earns a spot on the major-league roster (remember Chris Shelton).  Usually, that player is an afterthought by the middle of May, but that may not be the case with Sean Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is hitting .413 and leading the league with six homers, while Pat Burrell (.171) and Gabe Kapler (.138) have been less than impressive.  Matt Joyce's elbow injury may limit him to DH duties or even force him to the DL to begin the season, which may clear space for S-Rod in right field or at second base (with Ben Zobrist moving to right).

Rodriguez is a serious prospect, the key piece in the Scott Kazmir trade with the Angels last August.  S-Rod has shown tremendous power throughout his minor-league career and in recent seasons has shown a steadily improving sense of the strike zone.  He's going to swing and miss plenty, but at least he'll whiff primarily on pitches in the zone and could be make a run at 30 HR even as a rookie if he's given everyday at-bats.  The Rays are "all-in" with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena headed to free agency at the end of 2010, so I think they'll give S-Rod a chance to prove his March numbers are no fluke.  If he produces during the time it takes Matt Joyce's elbow to heal, it could spell the end of the Pat the Bat experiment in Tampa Bay.

The Jeff Suppan Mercy Killing

The Brewers are facing an unfamiliar problem this spring: a dearth of starting pitching.  With Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and Manny Parra pretty much guaranteed spots in the rotation, only one remains for either Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, or Chris Narveson.

Both Bush and Narveson have pitched extremely well this spring, while Suppan has not.  The fact that Bush, Narveson, and Parra are all out of minor-league options and would undoubtedly be claimed off waivers, makes it almost impossible for the traditionally pitching poor Brewers to leave any one of them off the active roster.

Suppan has gotten progressively worse since coming to Milwaukee and seems now like a serious candidate for release, even though that would mean the Brewers would have to eat the remaining $14 Million on his contract.  Better that, however, than lose a useful and relatively young pitcher like Narveson or Bush and get nothing in return.

No doubt Doug Melvin is beating the bushes trying to find a trading partner.  That may not be far-fetched considering how many teams have starting pitching shortages, but they will be able to drive a hard bargain with the knowledge that Milwaukee's roster math just doesn't work at this juncture.  It wouldn't surprise me terribly if the Brewers began the season with thirteen pitchers, or if Suppan came down with a convenient case of tendinitis that forced him to the 15-day DL.

Roll the Dice on Aroldis?

I've been saying it all spring and I still believe, assuming his back spasms aren't a recurring problem, Aroldis Chapman will be the Reds best option for the final spot in the rotation.  I don't think he's the second-coming of Dwight Gooden.  There will be some rough outings.  But if the Reds are serious about contending during the final year of Dusty Baker's contract (and potentially the final year in Cincinnati for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Ramon Hernandez), Chapman has the best chance of helping them to that goal straight out of the gate.

Peter Gammons argues eloquently for giving Chapman a Strasburg-style six-week minor-league training program and I understand his logic, but I think it's safe to say that if the Nationals thought they had a legitimate shot at the postseason, they probably would've made Strasburg their Opening Day starter.  Many in the Braves organization regret starting Tommy Hanson at AAA in '09, considering the Braves ended missing the playoffs by only six games and the men who kept Hanson's seat warm, primarily Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen, combined for only one win in April and May.  There is quite a bit riding on this season, for Baker, for the Reds veterans, and for the front office. Making their first postseason appearance since 1995 would more than make up for the money they might lose if Chapman gets one more year of arbitration.

The Comeback Train?

The Tigers are going to pay $35 Million this season to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson, but at this juncture it looks like there's only room or two of them in the rotation.  Bonderman and Willis are clear favorites, both because they have more raw talent and because Robertson has a better chance of adapting to a relief role.  I think it's safe to say that everybody's rooting for the affable, spirited D-Train, but while his increasing velocity and 1.20 ERA in fifteen spring innings are damn good signs, his eight walks are a red flag, especially considering that control problems are what derailed him in '08 and '09.

The Second Coming of R. Ortiz

Coming into Spring Training the Dodgers probably expected that the competition for fifth starter would come down to youngsters like James McDonald and Charlie Haeger.  That has not been the case.  There is still a rookie in the running, 24-year-old Carlos Monasterios, but frontrunners are a pair of guys named Ortiz, both of whom came into camp facing very long odds.

Ramon Ortiz, the former Angels workhorse who will turn 37 in May, hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2007, but he has struck out nineteen batters in fourteen innings, posting a 1.29 ERA.

Russ Ortiz, the former Giants Ace, is a year younger, and got thirteen starts for the Astros in 2009, but he hasn't had even a mediocre season since 2004.  Over the last five years he is 10-28 with a 6.56 ERA. However, this spring he's been dominant, allowing on two earned runs in thirteen innings (2.08 ERA).

Many were surprised yesterday when Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would be his Opening Day starter.  They're going to be even more surprised when he announces who gets the call on April 11th.

Stephen Strasburg v. Aroldis Chapman

Whether fairly or not, these phenoms are going to be inextricably linked, at least for the next couple years, if not for the entirety of their careers.  For starters, both were born in 1988.  Both rose to notoriety more than a year before they signed major-league contracts: Chapman as an enigma in Cuba's bullpen during the '09 WBC and Strasburg as an absolutely unhittable Ace during his final two seasons playing for Tony Gwynn's team at San Diego State.

They ascended into the public consciousness for much the same reason.  They both are capable of not only touching triple digits on the radar gun, an ability that sends tingles down the spine of the most jaded baseball men, but appear to be able to live there for innings at a time on their best days.  Justin Verlander and Ubaldo Jimenez are the only starting pitchers currently in the major leagues who climb into that range even occasionally, and the ability to do it consistently was the exclusive territory of Joel Zumaya in 2009.

This ability to light up the radar gun, combined with the impression that both have excellent pitches with which to balance the dominating fastball, led both to enter unprecedented contractual territory.  The Nationals took Strasburg with the #1 pick in '09 and will pay him $15 Million over the next four seasons.  The biggest contract ever extended to an American amateur player.  A few months later Chapman set a new precedent for amateur internationals by signing a six-year, $30 Million deal with the Reds.

Naturally, as both have joined franchises who have almost nothing to show for the last decade, fans of the Reds and Nats are clamoring to see these wunderkinds pitch.  And so far this spring, neither has disappointed.  Chapman has yet to allow a run in two outings.  He's thrown four innings, struck out five, and allowed three hits and a walk.  He has, as promised, had several 100 MPH deliveries.  Strasburg, also, has not yet allowed a run, striking out four and walking one in five innings of work.

The immediate future, however, seems set in stone for Stephen Strasburg.  He will make one or two more starts before being optioned to the minor-leagues, where, depending on how he fairs, he will remain until at least June, so that the Nationals can set his arbitration clock back a year.  Although it's may be a disappointment to Washington fans, and baseball fans generally, it's a savvy move.

The Nats aren't going anywhere in 2010.  They play in a division which includes their league's reigning behemoth, the Phillies, as well as three other teams with aspirations of contending (whether realistic or not).  Two of Washington's most promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler, are out for at least the first half of the season, as is their promising young backstop, Jesus Flores.  The Nats know that Strasburg, so long as he stays healthy, will be part of their rotation for many years to come.  They aren't so sure about guys like Scott Olsen, Craig Stammen, J. D. Martin, and Garrett Mock.  Now is good time to see what those fellows can do.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds have reason to believe that their time is now.  They went 27-13 down the stretch in 2009.  On paper at least, they match up fairly well with all three of the teams the finished ahead of them in 2009.  Their manager, Dusty Baker, is in the final year of his contract, at the beginning of which he promised to end Cincinnati's playoff drought, dating back to 1995.  If he wants to be rehired in 2011, he'll need to at least deliver the club's first winning season since 2000.

There is no tangential benefit to leaving Chapman behind at the start of the season, if he seems ready.  The other options for the rotation, Justin Lehr and Micah Owings, are veteran players who have had several seasons in the major-leagues already.  There is almost no chance they will be anything better than replacement-level starters.  Also, because of how Chapman's contract is structured, the Reds have already bought out most of his arbitration years, so their isn't any financial incentive to keeping him in the minor leagues for an extra couple months.  If they believe he's ready (and indications so far are that he is), he should be their fifth starter.    

Offseason Prospectus #19: The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have gotten an uncharacteristic flurry of national press this week (I highly recommend this article at MLB.com), thanks in large part to their surprise signing of Cuban phenom, Aroldis Chapman.  Aroldis may not be a household name, but he's gotten about as much buzz as any 21-year-old pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg.  Like Strasburg, he can throw in the triple digits, as he proved last spring during the World Baseball Classic.  Unlike Strasburg, there is very little evidence by which to predict Chapman's potential or longevity.  While scouts and even average fans got the chance to see every college start Strasburg made during his exceptional 2009 season at San Diego State, Chapman has pitched the majority of his innings behind the Iron Curtain, as Cuba used him sparingly in international play, perhaps as a way of preventing his defection...which seemed, nonetheless, inevitable.  Although he was hardly spectacular during the Classic (0-1, 5.68 ERA), buzz about him dominated coverage of the event, much as buzz about Dice-K dominated the 2006 version.

Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps.  In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year.  He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP).  Cueto will turn 24 in February.  Volquez is 26.

Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans.  Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels.  Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.

The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition.  In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.

Free Agents:

Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP

The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions.  The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce.  On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior).  Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.

In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads.  Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.

Bronson Arroyo is the prototype.  Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after).  He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings.  If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.

Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati.  The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start.  And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest!  At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32.  Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA.  He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.

The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation.  When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5.  However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.

Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health.  Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips.  There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09.  If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.

There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field.  There are several interesting candidates for the outfield.  Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early.  He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.

His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year.  Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559.  Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.

The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring.  If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson.  Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB.  His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
 
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect).  Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR).  But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level.  If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.

At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising.  Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth.  Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop.  The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player.  The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).

In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence.  Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned.  Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.

This is an important season for Cincinnati.  Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo.  If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries).  If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)

SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)

CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)

C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)