Matt Garza is Not Your Savior, Cubs Fans. Sorry.

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays.  Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central.  I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.

Here's the good news.  Garza is a pitcher in his prime.  He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players.  Garza is a premium talent.  He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches.  In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP.  He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons.  He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007.  Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental.  And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central.  That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board.  Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.

It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty.  A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage.  And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come.  However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011.  Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke.  And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.

Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story.  From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA.  Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September.  Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League.  More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss.  My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace.  That could be true.  Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern.  His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9).  He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12).  According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average).  There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.

Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term.  In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza.  He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.

More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation.  Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average.  Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall.  Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood.  Is that really a solution?  Maybe, maybe not.  On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage.  Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings.  In fact, it probably exacerbates them.

Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09.  Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward.  Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth.  The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman.  The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.

I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.

UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels.  MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.

Second & Final Cubs Post of the 2010 Season

Cubs fandom is the best modern analogy for the Greek conception of eternal suffering.  Like Prometheus, I am forever bound to them, with the knowledge that whether in April or October, every year a giant bird, strongly resembling Steve Stone, is going to voraciously feast upon my liver, cackling with delight.  Cubs fans are possessed of a Sisyphean fortitude (what Einstein would call madness) as every year we tremble in anticipation of a result different from the hundred and one which came before.  Cubs fans have been so perverted by their own masochistic experience of fandom that they cannot imagine rooting for a team like the Yankees or the Braves.  Our entire conception of sport is rooted in misery.  We prefer the Clippers, the Bills, Andy Roddick, and the French military.

Usually I wait until at least August to declare the season kaputt.  This year, it was over almost before it began.  The worse part of it is that Jim Hendry might actually keep his job.  I berated him throughout the offseason and I stand by my fury, but the half-season results of his recent acquisitions are pretty damn stellar.  Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley looks like a heist.  Marlon Byrd has been the Cubs best player.  It might be nice to have Jake Fox right now, considering the Cubs lack of pop, but he didn't exactly play gangbusters in Oakland, and has since been shipped to Baltimore, while Matt Spencer has played fairly well in AA.

Hendry certainly can't be blamed for the unforeseeable decline of Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, the utter breakdown of Carlos Zambrano, or the fact that the Cubs had a pretty tough interleague draw.  Hopefully, the Cubs new ownership will able to see past Hendry's recent good fortune.  He ignored a problem of morale and leadership which had existed before the arrival of Milton Bradley, and has only gotten worse since his departure.  He annually over-invested in players with sever and obvious limitations, especially in terms of age, platoon splits, and defensive acumen.  With one of the best revenue streams in all of professional sport, including a budget at the very top of his league, he has managed just three playoff appearances in nine seasons, has an overall record of 688-686, and, most importantly, he hasn't broken the curse.

It's not just Hendry, either.  Anybody with the slightest hint of objectivity can see that it's time to blow the whole thing up.  Thanks for the memories and all, but good riddance.  Pinella has lost the clubhouse and maybe his edge.  D-Lee, even if he repeats his second-half surge from a season ago, is now just one of those aging first-basemen who are among the most plentiful free agent commodities every offseason (see Huff, Aubrey; Glaus, Troy; etc.).  Big Z needs a fresh start, although it will probably mean eating some salary and getting very little in return.  Fukudome should be given away, maybe even released.  Anybody who's over 30 and can be traded, should be traded.  Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee could both fetch a decent return from pennant contenders, even though they will only be two-month rentals.  If not, the Cubs can hold them and take the draft picks when they hit free agency.  

The good news is, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, whether it is later this season or next spring, the Cubs actually have a decent young core to build on.  They clearly rushed Starlin Castro, but his potential is evident, and he could do next year what Elvis Andrus is doing for Texas this year, which is being a very, very good defender and leadoff hitter.  Andrew Cashner has looked promising coming out of the bullpen and might get a few starts in the second half.  Combined with Silva, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, the Cubs have the makings of a rag-tag rotation.  Tyler Colvin has been better than anybody expected.  Geovany Soto is among the best backstops in the National League.  Carlos Marmol is one of the best closers in the game.  Josh Vitters is probably two years away, but Brett Jackson could get a cup of coffee in September, based on his 959 OPS split between A and AA, and might take over as a regular by the middle of 2011.

Even if they have to eat a sizable chunk of the money due to Zambrano and Fukudome, the Cubs should could still enter this offseason with more flexibility than they've had for several seasons.  Lee and Lilly alone are making $25 Million, Pinella another $10 Million.  The Cubs can use some of that money to fill in the gaps, but should probably plan on treating 2011 as a rebuilding season, which will take a little of the pressure off first-time manager, Ryne Sandberg.  Then, when Ramirez, Fukudome, and Silva open up another $40 Million the following year, they'll be primed to compete for a stellar class of free agents in 2012, one that could include Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Corey Hart, Carlos Beltran, and many more.

And a man with a striking resemblance to Ron Santo begins pushing his red, white, and blue boulder back up the hill.

Hippeaux's Mailbag

I finally posted a functional email address earlier this month (sorry about that).  Since then, there has been a trickle of questions, mostly fantasy related.  Here are some answers which I thought might be relevant for others:


"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric


I definitely deserve this.  I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason.  Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start.  He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA).  Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues.  So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now.  Silva's been a contributer.  Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS).  Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008.  Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances).  If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology.  If they don't, expect more venom.


"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league.  After a month, he's got zero wins.  Should I try to trade him?  I need pitching.  What can I expect to get?" - Steve

I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year.  As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues.  That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke.  Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.

After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.

His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky.  Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs.  Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.

Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter.  And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten.  At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason.  These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.

"I know you've seen the PECOTA projections already.  In the ESPN magazine Baseball Think Factory says that the Angels have only a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West.  How can that be?" - Tim

I received this message before the season began, so I'll begin with the response the sent Tim at that time:

"I'm continually surprised by how poorly the 2010 Angels are performing in preseason simulations, which consistently have them finishing behind the Rangers, Mariners, and even the Athletics.  I've said repeatedly that I think the rumors of the Angels demise have been greatly exaggerated.  I don't expect they will win the division by ten games, as they did in '09, but I think they'll be at least an 85 win team and as safe a bet as anybody to win the AL West.  My only explanation for the Angels poor performance in simulations is that they had several players who had career years in '09: Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, etc.  Even Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu had among their best seasons.  More often than not, regression is to be expected.  I certainly think the younger players are capable of continuing to build on what they did in '09, but it is true that at some point guys like Abreu and Matsui will hit the wall.  Will it be this year?  I don't know."

It's still very early, but the Halos performance so far suggests the boys at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus get paid the "big bucks" for a reason.  The Angels are 12-17 and, more significantly, their -43 run differential is better than only Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore (and not by that much).  Still, it's a relatively small sample and they are only three games back, so one good week could be enough to get me right back on the Angels bandwagon.

I've watched Los Angeles quite a bit and I'll admit they've got some serious holes.  The Brandon Wood experiment has been a complete bust and, unless something dramatic happens, I think will be put to rest before the end of May.  Erick Aybar has not adapted to hitting leadoff and the Angels don't have anybody else who appears better suited to that role. 

The starting pitching, which I expected to be the Angels strength, despite the departure of John Lackey, has been the team's most serious issue (5.00 ERA, 12th in A.L.).  The hired guns, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro, have each shown improvement in recent starts after tough Aprils.  I expect both will be at least serviceable behind the clear Ace, Jered Weaver.  But Joe Saunders has been especially abysmal (1-5, 7.04 ERA).  The Angels top prospect, Trevor Bell, continues to dominate at AAA, so don't be surprised if Saunders loses his spot.

Mike Scioscia has never been afraid of shaking things up.  Don't be surprised if Saunders, Wood, and Brian Fuentes soon find the end of their leashes.  The Angels depth of options, combined with the fact that no team in the AL West appears ready to run away from the rest, are cause for continued optimism.

Let it be. Let it be.

Milton Bradley is a Seattle Mariner.  His primary focus this spring is getting fit, staying healthy, and proving he can be the middle of the order presence the Mariners desperately need if they intend to compete in the tight AL West.  His former team, the Chicago Cubs, training right down the road in Mesa, Arizona, should be dedicated to erasing the memory of last season's disappointing performance.  And yet, the story of the disastrous relationship between Bradley and his former employers refuses to die.

Hopefully this is merely a result of the inevitable Spring Training microscope.  Reporters don't have much to ask about, with few developments on the field, so they reopen the scars of the previous year.  For the most parts, the Cubs players have said all the right things: Bradley wasn't a bad guy, they wish him well with his new club, they're focused on the task ahead instead of last year's failures.  After all, Bradley was bad in 2009, but frankly, so was everybody else in the Cubs lineup (with the exception of Derrek Lee).

One wonders where the Cubs players learned to be so politic, considering their general manager, the man who should be setting the tone for the whole organization, refuse to leave Bradley alone.  Sure, Bradley isn't pulling any punches either, as he's also being bombarded by questions he'd probably rather not answer, but Jim Hendry has every reason to take the high road and he defiantly hasn't, choosing instead to fling his own set of barbs and accusations (primarily that Bradley had a bad attitude, is a narcissist, and is lying about the racist treatment he got from Chicago fans).

Hendry has dramatically misevaluated the situation.  As long as it was just Bradley trying to drag his old team through the mud, he just looked embittered.  His reputation for drawing controversy throughout his journeyman career gave his statements even less credence, even though some former Cubs (like LaTroy Hawkins and Jacque Jones) have made similar accusations.  However, compared with Jim Hendry's defensive and blustering statements this morning, Milton Bradley's appears downright poised in his ESPN interview.

Hendry's need to bring Derrek Lee and Marlon Byrd into a conversation where they frankly don't belong serves to dignify Bradley's statements.  Doth the lady protest too much?

As a Cubs fan this bothers me on two levels.  Obviously, I hate to have my team and their fans accused of any sort of racial prejudice.  I hate even more that it appears increasingly evident that there is at least an element of truth...still.  Yes, I've been to my fair share of Cubs games over the last decade and though I've never actually heard a racial epithet hurled from the bleachers, it wouldn't surprise me if it happened occasionally (as it probably does anywhere too many white people are filled with too much Old Style).  However, if this did become a routine occurrence, accompanied by un-postmarked hatemail and threats to his family, as Bradley reports, it was the Cubs duty to take action.  It only takes a few fans getting tossed from their $100 seats to solve at least one part of the problem.

Jim Hendry (like Bud Selig) is feigning ignorance.  This is hardly the first time somebody has questioned the sportsmanship of the Wrigley Field faithful.  In the '60s, the original "Bleacher Bums," who, to be fair, pestered most opposing players, were particularly cruel to Lou Brock and Curt Flood, African-American outfielders on the rival Cardinals, to the point of drenching them with beer and pelting them with tennis balls (this story is recounted in several places, including Flood's exceptional autobiography).  As late as the 1980s, conventional wisdom held that black fans went to the South Side, to see the White Sox, while the Cubs catered to Caucasians.

Calling Milton Bradley's accusations "ridiculous" does not necessarily make them so.  This is merely the latest of Jim Hendry's desperate attempts to prove that everything is business as usual for the organization, when that is apparently not the case.

The Next Elvis Andrus?

In an interview with MLB Network last week, Moises Alou predicted that Cubs uber-prospect, Starlin Castro, would be in the big-league lineup sometime this season, perhaps even in April.  Alou couldn't speak highly enough of Castro, who he coached very briefly in the Dominican Winter League, before the Cubs insisted that he shut it down for a month or two.

Castro's star, already on the horizon, shot into the national baseball consciousness this November, when he hit .376 in the Arizona Fall League.  The shortstop, who isn't yet 20-years-old, has hit for a high average and shown decent plate discipline at every level thusfar, though he hasn't yet displayed any power.  Not including the AFL, he's got only 31 games above A-ball.  It seems unlikely that the Cubs, who consider themselves potential contenders in the NL Central, would be willing to hand him an everyday job right out of the gate in 2010, as the Rangers did for Andrus in 2009 (Andrus, though like Castro in many ways, had, at least, one full season at AA).

However, the fact that the Cubs didn't sign a second-baseman this winter and already appear to have a plan of succession in place makes it more believable that Castro's arrival might be less than a year away.  If Castro can really flash the leather, forcing Ryan Theriot to move back to second base, than Chicago will get better defensively at two critical positions and the offense may be, at least, a wash, as Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, the current second base platoon, really bombed in '09.

I'm all for giving Fontenot and Baker another chance, and thus giving Castro a little more minor-league seasoning, but if that platoon hasn't improved dramatically on their '09 performance by July, there will be nothing to stop Jim Hendry from turning the infield and the eight-hole in the lineup over to Starlin.

The Definition of Insanity

Einstein famously mused that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Fans of the Chicago Cubs can't help but ask, based on this justification, if the men in charge of their favored franchises haven't fallen clear off their rockers.

On the final day of 2009, Jim Hendry of the Cubs announced the signing of Marlon Byrd to a three-year, $15 Million contract. First off, I grant that figure is well shy of the $36 Million he gave Milton Bradley almost exactly a year ago, but it is nonetheless a sizable amount to pay an outfielder in his early thirties with an extensive injury history who is coming off a career year...playing at the Ballpark in Arlington, a stadium famous for offensive inflation.

Consider a few precedents...

Gary Matthews Jr.:

In 2006, at the age of 30, Matthews Jr. scored 102 runs, hit 19 HR, and posted a 866 OPS while playing for the Rangers. He had 164 more plate appearances (690) than in any other season of his career. His 2006 performance, combined with his consistent defensive prowess, led the Angels to sign him to an enormous contract (5 yr./$50 Mil). Over the first three seasons of that contract he has averaged 59 R, 10 HR, and 56 RBI, with an OPS of 708. His plate appearances have declined in every season, to just 360 in '09 and he is now considered nothing more than a very expensive fourth outfielder.

David Dellucci:

In 2005, at the age of 31, Delluci slammed 29 HR for the Rangers, 12 more than in any other season of his career. That season he also posted career highs in plate appearances (518), runs (97), hits (109), RBI (65), and walks (76), as well as an 879 OPS, prompting the Indians to sign him to a three-year, $11.5 Million deal. In two full seasons with the Tribe, he managed only 514 at-bats and a 700 OPS, 15 HR, and 66 runs scored.

Kevin Mench:

Mench posted two straight seasons of 25 HR and 70 RBI with the Rangers in '04 and '05, prompting the Brewers to demand that he be a key component in the trade that netted the Rangers Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. With the Rangers, Mench had been good for a long ball about once every 23 at-bats. With the Brewers that rate doubled, and he managed just nine more homers in '07 and '08, before dropping out of baseball entirely.

Milton Bradley:

And then, of course, there is Milton Bradley. Sure, Bradley showed a lot more promise throughout his career before his stop in Texas than most of these jokers, but 2008 was nonetheless a serious anomaly. Bradly, at the age of 30, posted career highs in runs (78), HR (22), RBI (77), walks (80), batting average (.321), on-base percentage (.436), and slugging percentage (.563). Hopefully, Jim Hendry can remember what happened next. Upon arriving in Chicago, despite making almost exactly as many trips to the plate (473 compared to 509 in Texas), his OPS dropped by more than 200 points, from 999 to 775.

Perhaps the Cubs front office is really convinced that the reason for the drastic drop in production demonstrated by these examples is not the exit from the friendly confines of Arlington, but rather the separation from Rudy Jaramillo, the former Ranger hitting coach they recently acquired. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. Here is the rank of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington for Home Run and Run Production the last two seasons:

2008 - #1 in R, #5 in HR

2009 - #7 in R, #3 in HR

Now Wrigley Field isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise, but...

The thing that angers me most about this signing is that the Cubs are pretending that this solves the "centerfield problem" which has been plaguing the club for at least the last decade (some would probably argue that the Cubs have had a centerfield problem ever since they traded Rick Monday to the Dodgers prior to the '77 season). Marlon Byrd ain't no goddamn centerfielder. Yes, over the course of his career, Marlon Byrd has played more innings in center than anywhere else, but his teams have been constantly trying to change that. The Rangers put him out there last year in desperation, because Josh Hamilton was injured and Byrd was the next best option (at least until Julio Borbon came along). Marlon Byrd has never posted a range factor anywhere near the league average. In 2009, out of the twenty centerfielders who played as many innings as he did, Byrd finished 12th in range and 15th in UZR at -6.0. FanGraphs rated his arm as the worst among AL centerfielders.

While the rest of baseball is prioritizing defense, the Cubs have a left-fielder in center, a second-baseman at shortstop, and the adventurous Alfonso Soriano in left. Hendry has added another lengthy contract which simultaneously makes the team older, slower, and more right-handed. What a mess.

Jim Hendry Discovers Existence of Contract Worse Than Milton Bradley's, Trades For It

A few months ago I read an article about a UFC fighter who was renowned for getting pummeled by some of the best fighters in the history of the sport before they were rich and famous. He had been fighting for an insanely long time (and pretty much any amount of time in the UFC is insane), but had compiled, at best, a .500 record. He said (obviously, I'm paraphrasing here), "If you can't beat me, you haven't got a future in this sport."

And that, my friends, is exactly how major league general managers should view Jim Hendry. Today, another young, ambitious GM on the rise, Jack Zduriencik of the Seattle Mariners, cut his teeth in the industry by fleecing Hendry and left Cubs fans like myself wondering yet again whether gross incompetence can really be considered a "curse." Over at MLB Notebook, Zach Sanders is calling it reason enough to label Zduriencik "the best GM in baseball." I'm as big a Zduriencik fan as anybody, but he'll need to accomplish a little more before I'll consider him the equal of Epstein, Williams, Beane, and Jocketty. In this case, he's just one in a long line of crafty execs who have stolen Hendry's lunch money and wedgied him in the process. Let's recount:

Shortly after taking over the Cubs prior to the 2003 season, Hendry traded Dontrelle Willis and Julian Tavarez to Larry Beinfest's Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Willis would go on to win the 2003 Rookie of the Year and pitch 3 2/3 scoreless innings in the World Series. He averaged fourteen wins a season for Florida over the next five years. Matt Clement won fourteen games once. He and Alfonseca combined to go 40-42 for the Cubs over the next three seasons. In the cruelest of ironies, the Marlins ousted in the Cubs in dramatic fashion in the NLCS, on their way to their second championship in seven years. The Cubs have won two championships in the last 102 years.

The following season Hendry made a big splash in July when he landed Nomar Garciaparra for next to nothing from a fresh-faced GM named Theo Epstein. Garciaparra, hobbled by a lingering back injury which would dog him for the rest of his career, played in only 105 games over the next two seasons, but he collected almost $17 Million from the Cubs, not including the World Series share his ex-teammates voted him when the Red Sox won it all that season.

After two consecutive years of helping other franchises win championships, Jim Hendry took a couple years off, dedicating himself instead to the free agent market, where he picked up players like Jacque Jones, Jeremy Burnitz, Todd Walker, and Neifi Perez. Remember them?

Obviously, I'm being hard on Hendry. It's easy to say he's an idiot for trading away guys like Willis, Ricky Nolasco, Mark DeRosa, and, most recently, Jake Fox, but one also has to recognize acquisitions like Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Rich Harden, and Kenny Lofton, all of whom came over in trades and made immediate (in some cases lasting) impacts, and for whom Hendry gave up very little.

However, this offseason his actions have an unmistakable hint of desperation. He is a man who, having succeeded in keeping a highly demanding job for a fairly long duration, knows his tenure is coming to an end. He had, no doubt, convinced himself he would be the one to finally bring a championship to Wrigleyville, which would give him the "do no wrong" reputation with the fan base currently enjoyed by Theo in Boston and Kenny on the South Side. But, unless the Cubs have a miracle season, I see very little chance Hendry makes it to the end of his current contract (which expires after the 2012 season).

On cannot deny that he has overseen one of the more successful decades in the franchise's troubled history. In seven years at the helm, he led the Cubs to five winning seasons and three playoff appearances. Not since the early 1970s had the Cubs won with such frequency. And the last time the Cubs made three playoff appearances in a decade, FDR was the president.

However, twice now Hendry has built expensive teams which came close, teased fans with their potential, but could not give the North Side what they've been craving for the last century. Dusty Baker was supposed to be the savior and he looked like it during 2003, but he was run out of town after dreadful performances in '05 and '06. Then Lou Pinella was supposed to be the savior and he looked like it when he took the Cubs to the playoffs two years in a row in '07 and '08, but a heavily favored '09 club fell flat and now looks frighteningly familiar: old, overpaid, and without an identity.

Pressured by the Chicago media and perhaps by Pinella, Hendry was made to feel this winter like he had to trade Milton Bradley, who was, undeniably, a failure in his first season as a Cub. However, while Bradley was a disappointment because he didn't equal the rate of production he had displayed for the Rangers, Athletics, and Dodgers, Carlos Silva, who is signed for as much money and as many years as Bradley, is a failure of a whole different kind. Silva isn't only not worthy of the mega-contract he's signed to, he is no longer worthy of a major-league roster spot, something the Mariners realized when they axed him from their starting rotation after only six appearances in 2009. Yes, they later sent him to the disabled list with a "right shoulder impingement," but he never had any surgery, because the real reason the Mariners no longer wanted him on the active roster was his ungainly 8.48 ERA.

And lest you believe Jim Hendry's suggestion that perhaps Silva has rediscovered himself in the Caribbean League this winter, I will point out to you that just last week Carlos made his one and only start for Caribes de Anzoategui. He pitched less than three innings, yet managed to allow six hits, three homers, and four earned runs. All told, he has now pitched nine full innings in Venezuela, allowing eight earned runs. His opponents, who are primarily prospects and fringe major leaguers, are hitting a cool .410 against him.

The fact is, there was never a whole lot in Silva's arsenal to rediscover. How he managed to convince Bill Bavasi to give him a four-year/$48 Million contract will remain one of the great baseball mysteries of the 21st century. In the two years directly preceding Silva's signing, he went 24-29 for Minnesota, with a 5.01 ERA. He was marketed as an innings-eater, having pitched 180+ in four consecutive seasons, but even if he were to regain his best form, Silva has no business moving in front of Sean Marshall or Tom Gorzelanny on the Cubs depth chart. Let them eat the innings, because they might develop into something worthwhile.

Milton Bradley, at his best, has proven he can be one of the very best hitters in all of baseball. This is a player who made an All-Star team and led the AL in OBP and OPS as recently as 2008. THE ONLY THING CARLOS SILVA HAS EVER LED HIS LEAGUE IN IS HOME RUNS ALLOWED. Perhaps Milton Bradley, reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, could've regained some semblance of his 2008 production. But I guarantee you, regardless, his production, even at his absolute worst, would've well surpassed what the Cubs will get from Silva, who I doubt...rather, I hope never makes a single pitch for Chicago.

Billy Beane's Latest Swindle

It's days like these which make it hard to be a Cubs fan. Sure, it stings a little when Ryan Dempster gives up a three-run bomb to Manny Ramirez in the NLDS or when Alex Gonzalez boots a routine double-play ball in eight-inning of Game 6 of the NLCS, but it's those moments which make us who we are. Admit it, Cubs fans, the sting of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, painful though it may be, has buried deep within it the promise of delayed gratification. Cubs fans are masochists, ascetics, and Puritans. We have dedicated ourselves to a glory which is always on the horizon. But when it is finally reached, if it is ever reached, our euphoria will be unprecedented. Yankees fans will never experience joy like that. White Sox and Red Sox fans, sympathetic as they may be, will never experience joy like that. To be a lifelong Cubs fan is to maintain the dream of a heavenly reward on earth.

But, Oh!, there will be suffering and there will be trials, and there will be days like these. In his rookie year, Jake Fox hit eleven homers and drove in 44 runs, unspectacular numbers, except when you consider he started only 62 games and got only 241 plate appearances. Extrapolate his numbers over a full season and he would've been one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year in the National League. Which should be no surprise. Between AA and AAA in 2008, Fox had 31 HR and 105 RBI. In just 45 games at AAA in '09 he had 17 HR and 53 RBI, maintaining a .409 AVG and a 1336 OPS. This kid can rake!

Unfortunately, in Chicago he was a man without a position. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are entrenched at the corners and Fox isn't well-suited to the outfield. So, what Jim Hendry had this offseason was a player who had proved he was ready and able to be a productive hitter at the major-league level AND who wouldn't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season. This is one of the best bargaining chips a general manager can have: a player who isn't essential to his own plans, but who offers considerable value to many of his competitors. Jake Fox, I had unwisely presumed, would be one of the lynchpins in a trade for serious major-league talent. Sure, he's got defensive issues and he strikes out a lot, but combined with another prospect or two, Fox could've helped the Cubs land Dan Uggla or Curtis Granderson, both of whom currently play for teams which have places for Fox to play (1B/DH) and covet the financial alleviation he would offer.

Instead, for the second year in a row, Jim Hendry essentially gave away the best tradable commodity he had in his arsenal. Last winter it was Mark DeRosa who he handed to the Indians for a couple of minor-league relievers, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub, and a very young starting pitcher, Chris Archer, who, to be fair, pitched fairly well at the A-level in '09 (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 119 K/66 BB, 109 IP). While all three of these pitchers may end up giving the Cubs some quality innings, with Archer having an outside shot at becoming a member of the rotation down the road, DeRosa would've been real handy to have last season when Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Aaron Miles, and others were combining to give us 7 HR and a 666 OPS from the second base position. Instead, DeRosa ended up playing for the team the Cubs were chasing down the stretch, as the Indians proved how much he was actually worth on the open market. For two months of Mark DeRosa, St. Louis gave Cleveland their two of their best major-league ready relief-pitching prospects, Chris Perez and Jess Todd.

The Jake Fox deal is even more egregious. The two prospects in the deal, Ronny Moria and Matt Spencer, are nothing more than "organizational depth." Moria is a 23-year-old who hasn't advanced past the low-A level, where he has pitched poorly. Spencer, also 23, has hit decently as high as AA, where he posted an 808 OPS in 409 plate appearances last season. Nonetheless, the high-end of his potential probably makes him at best a fourth outfielder in the majors. He's Micah Hoffpauir...lite.

So, the "impact" piece in the Fox deal is Jeff Gray, another middle reliever, who posted a 3.76 ERA for the A's in 26 innings last season. He doesn't have closer-type stuff and has a pedestrian 3.57 ERA in 163 AAA innings. In other words, what Jim Hendry got for Jake Fox was a single middle reliever who looks a hell of a lot like the abundance of middle relievers, including Stevens and Gaub, who the Cubs already have in the organization!

Meanwhile, in addition to giving up a premier prospect for absolutely nothing that they don't already have in abundance, they will pay approximately half of Aaron Miles contract while he's playing for Oakland. Sure, Miles was unimpressive in '09. Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot offer the same skill-set with more upside for less money, but Miles is nonetheless a proven major-league back-up infielder, whose position flexibility and ability to hit for average (.282 career) give him minimal value. I think it is safe to say he's worth almost as much as Jeff Gray, who isn't much better than a replacement-level reliever. It is very, very possible that when this trade is evaluated a year or two from now, the Cubs will have given Billy Beane the two most valuable players in the deal and $1,000,000. That's adding insult to injury.

Offseason Prospectus #6: The Chicago Cubs

When the 2009 season began, it seemed like almost a forgone conclusion that the Cubs were going to win another NL Central crown. They had retained every significant player, other than Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood, from their 2008 squad, which paced the NL. They had added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg, which seemed like more than enough to maintain the status quo. Moreover, the 2008 runner-up, Milwaukee, had lost their top two starting pitchers and the Cubs other top rivals, the Cardinals and Astros, hadn't made a peep all offseason, much to the dismay of their fans. It looked, during last winter, like the NL Central GMs, via inactivity and apathy, had conspired to hand another title to the Cubs. Maybe they recognized, as every Cubs fan should've recognized, that put in the position of overwhelming favorites, the Cubs would do what they have always done in such situations: choke.

In 2008, three Cubs starters - Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster - won fourteen or more games. In 2009, none of them got more than 12 wins. In 2008, the Cubs had five hitters with 20+ HR and 75+ RBI. Only Derrek Lee reached those numbers in 2009. Milton Bradley's OPS dropped by over 200 points. Alfonso Soriano had a batting average (.241) which was the worst in the NL among qualifying hitters, 25 points lower than his previous worst season. Over the previous two seasons, Kevin Gregg had posted a 3.48 ERA for the Marlins. For the Cubs, his ERA climbed all the way to 4.72. Aramis Ramirez played quite well, but missed half the season. Geovany Soto, Rich Harden, and Carlos Zambrano also missed significant time. Only Ryan Dempster made 30+ starts.

Nonetheless, despite disappointments and misfortune, somehow, at the trade deadline, the Cubs were half a game up on the Cardinals. But, while the Cardinals GM, John Mozeliak, acquired Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, and John Smoltz, to bolster his team for the stretch run, the Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, decided (or was instructed) to stand pat, perhaps assuming that the ship was about to right itself. Quite the opposite turned out to be the case, as August was Chicago's worst month (and St. Louis's best), and by the end of it, the Cubs were 10 games back.

Over the course of this summer, what had been perhaps somewhat unfounded optimism this spring turned into profound, even excessive cynicism. Several Cubs fans and commentators called for the complete explosion of the current team. Fire Jim Hendry. Fire Lou Pinella. Release Bradley. Trade Zambrano. Bench Soriano. Play Jake Fox at second base. We heard it all. Nobody seemed to notice, however, that despite falling painfully short of their third consecutive division title, the Cubs still had a winning season. It was the first time the Cubs put together three straight winning seasons since 1972. So, it's not like we're talking about the Royals here.

Assuming most of the team comes back healthy in 2010 and returns at least to their career norms, the Cubs will once again have one of the more loaded teams in the NL. There is work to be done, certainly, but with the sale of the team finally nearing completion and Pinella entering the last year of his contract (and perhaps the last year of his managing career) the front office has extra incentive to make waves. If the Cubs don't make the 2010 playoffs, Hendry will undoubtedly fall on the axe.

Free Agents:

Kevin Gregg (32) RHRP

Rich Harden (28) RHSP

Reed Johnson (33) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Jeff Baker (29) 2B/3B

Neal Cotts (30) LHRP

Mike Fontenot (30) 2B

Tom Gorzelanny (27) LHSP

Angel Guzman (28) RHRP

Koyie Hill (31) C

Carlos Marmol (27) RHRP

Sean Marshall (27) LHRP

Ryan Theriot (30) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Esmailin Caridad (26) RHSP

Andrew Cashner (23) RHSP

Tyler Colvin (24) OF

Scott Maine (25) LHRP

The Cubs have begun the Hot Stove season with a little housecleaning. Hendry fired their hitting coach and hired Rudy Jaramillo, who is rumored to have had a big part in invigorating many careers in Texas, including Milton Bradley's in 2008. He also quickly resigned left-handed reliever, John Grabow, and dealt right-handed reliever, Aaron Heilman, to Arizona for a couple of middling prospects. At least one of the pieces in the Heilman deal, Scott Maine, is likely to spend a little time in the Cubs bullpen next season.

Next up for Hendry are decisions about Bradley and Rich Harden. Bradley was not only unproductive this past season, but also became something of a sideshow at Wrigley and in the clubhouse, resulting in his suspension for the season's final weeks. Many believe he will be traded for next to nothing this offseason, with the Cubs eating a big portion of his salary. However, the signing of Jaramillo suggests the Cubs might be resistant to the idea of dealing a high-upside player at the absolute nadir of his rocky career. There is nothing about Bradley's history that suggests he can't bounce back and be a valuable commodity in 2010. As a Cubs fan, I'm also sick of Hendry paying big money to corner outfielders who underperform for one season and are then given up on (i.e. Jeremy Burnitz, Jacque Jones, & Kosuke Fukudome). Better to have Bradley fail again in '10 than to pay him to play for another team while the Cubs make an additional $30,000,000 mistake (i. e. Johnny Damon).

Harden is, likewise, a high-risk/high-reward commodity. There isn't a single pitcher on the free agent market this winter (John Lackey included) with the potential for dominance of the type that Harden displayed in the latter stages of 2008 (5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 89 K in 71 IP after joining the Cubs for a dozen starts) and the middle portion of 2009 (3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 60 K in 50 IP during an eight start stretch in July and August). At only 28, it is still very likely that he will put together a healthy campaign at some point which earns him serious Cy Young consideration. His high-end potential drives up his price, but his injury history (only once has he made 30+ starts) means that few teams will be willing to offer him a long-term deal. The Cubs may simply have to outbid everybody else for a one or two year extension.

I am hoping that Hendry chooses to keep both Harden and Bradley, if for no other reason than it will then be easier for him to address the remaining holes on the Cubs roster. If he has to spend time and money looking for another starter and corner outfielder, than the best-case scenario for the offseason is merely piecing together a team which looks as good as the one that managed just 83 wins this season. However, if Hendry retains Harden and Bradley, he should still have opportunity and funds to address at least one of the following positions: centerfield, second base, bullpen.

My personal preference would be for the Cubs to pursue a top-flight defensive centerfielder, either Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp. This would give Chicago a four-man outfield rotation. Kosuke Fukudome would become primarily a platoon player, given his 667 OPS against lefties over the last two seasons, and defensive replacement. Soriano could get days off against especially tough right-handers. Bradley would get frequent opportunities to fight off his nagging leg injuries. Most importantly, Crisp or Cameron would help close the outfield gaps considerably (particularly when Fukodome was also in right), providing a great deal more comfort for the Cubs pitchers.

Mike Fontenot struggled mightily as an everyday player in 2009, so Hendry may be tempted to pursue a free agent second-baseman like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, perhaps even Chone Figgins. Personally, I would be willing to give the Fontenot/Jeff Baker platoon another chance, if it meant applying that free agent money to more pressing needs (i.e. Harden, Crisp). Both Fontenot and Baker are scrappy players, who have shown the capability for giving good at-bats and playing solid, though not spectacular, defense. Perhaps one could step up and take the job permanently. Bounce-back performances from the rest of the lineup would do a great deal to take the pressure off them and I think we could expect at least a 725 OPS out of the #8 spot. That would be acceptable.

Many will argue that the bullpen needs work. It was conspicuously bad for key stretches of the '09 season, especially during Gregg's meltdown right around the All-Star Break, but their overall ERA (4.11) was almost exactly what it was in '08 (4.10) and things stabilized considerably after Marmol took over closing and Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, and John Grabow assumed the primary set-up roles. Relievers are, by nature, risky. I would rather take my chances with the relatively inexpensive ones the Cubs have in the system than attempt to bring in somebody like Brandon Lyon, who would cost around $5 Million and could easily turn into the second-coming Kevin Gregg (as recently as 2008, Lyon posted a 4.70 ERA as the closer for Arizona).

Finally, as I said, Hendry has every reason to play for this season and this season only. Pinella in entering his swan song. New ownership will be breathing down everybody's neck. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez (player option), and Ted Lilly could all be free agents a year from now. I expect Chicago to be aggressive this offseason, both on free agency and trades. Hendry has some expendable pieces from which to construct a major deal. In Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir, he possesses players with major-league power, but they are 1B/DH types, for whom there is no room in the Cubs lineup. There are also a number of pitchers and position players in the minor leagues which other teams would covet (Starlin Castro is the only one who's off-limits, I'm guessing). The Cubs probably don't have enough to acquire Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez, but that's not what they need either. They could go after somebody like Curtis Granderson or Dan Uggla. Hendry has never been reluctant to barter for big-name players. His trades for Kenny Lofton, Ramirez, and Harden keyed pennant runs. But, he also gambled less successfully on Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre. The worst thing Hendry could do, for himself and for the franchise, is become trigger-shy now. The Cubs remain positioned to make that long-awaited run deep into the playoffs. The same probably won't be true a year from now. Roll the dice. Mortgage the farm. (Insert your favorite non risk-adverse cliche here)

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/31):

SS Ryan Theriot (R)

RF Kosuke Fukudome (L)

1B Derrek Lee (R)

3B Aramis Ramirez (R)

LF Alfonso Soriano (R)

CF Marlon Byrd (R)

C Geovany Soto (R)

2B Mike Fontenot (L)

SP Carlos Zambrano (R)

SP Ted Lilly (L)

SP Ryan Dempster (R)

SP Randy Wells (R)

SP Tom Gorzelanny (L)

CL Carlos Marmol (R)

SU Angel Guzman (R)

SU Sean Marshall (L)

LOOGY John Grabow (L)

MR Jeff Samardzija (R)

MR Jeff Gray (R)

MOP Neal Cotts (L)

C Koyie Hill (S)

1B/3B Chad Tracy (L)
IF/OF Jeff Baker (R)
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir (L)

OF Xavier Nady (R)

The Season For Suits: NL Central

It wasn't that long ago that the offseason work of baseball's General Managers was confined to about an eight-week stretch, running from the Winter Meetings sometime around the beginning of December to the end of January. But in recent years, it seems, their work begins even before the playoffs are over (Atlanta has apparently resigned Tim Hudson, both Houston and Cleveland have announced new managers) and extends deep into Spring Training (at the beginning of 2009, you may recall, several key players - Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, etc. - didn't sign until after pitchers and catchers had reported). In a series of "Season For Suits" articles, I hope to preview what you can expect over the next five months from your favorite well-dressed men who act as baseball's middle management. I begin, for no particular reason, in the NL Central:

THE CONTENDERS:

St. Louis Cardinals (John Mozeliak)

Mozeliak inherited the GM role from the very popular Walt Jocketty and, as such, was faced with some early criticism from those who expected he would never be able to fill Jocketty's shoes. The Cardinals success in 2009 should quiet his critics, if only for a time. Mozeliak greatly improved his squad over the course of the season, acquiring Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, John Smoltz, and Julio Lugo, seemingly perfectly positioning the Cards for a run deep into the postseason. Although it didn't work out that way, Cards fans have to be very proud of the team their organization fielded for them.

Unfortunately, Mozeliak won't have any time to rest on his laurels. He already accomplished his first order of business, wrapping up Tony LaRussa for another year, putting to rest rumors that the legendary manager was feuding with the organization and considering a move. Now, there is the question of personnel, starting with those guys he signed in July and August. Holliday, DeRosa, and Smoltz are all headed to free agency, as are Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, and Joel Pineiro, leaving St. Louis with more unanswered questions than either of their primary rivals, the Cubs and the Brewers. At the very least, between now and April they will need to designate a left-fielder, a third-baseman, and two starting pitchers. They have promised to actively pursue resigning Holliday. If they could accomplish that, they could probably get away with an in-house solution at third, as David Freese tore up Triple-A and looked good in his September audition. But if Holliday, who will likely have two suitors in New York and one in Boston, proves too expensive, Mozeliak's winter could be very challenging.

As usual, the Cardinals will look for inexpensive reclamation projects to send to Dave Duncan's school for thirty-something castaways. Smoltz may be interested in attending a second semester and Braden Looper looks like he could use a refresher course after a significantly down performance in Milwaukee. Other good matches include Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Justin Duchscherer, and Carl Pavano.

Chicago Cubs (Jim Hendry)

High expectations going into the season overshadowed the fact that the Cubs accomplished something they had not done since 1972, securing at least three consecutive winning seasons. Last winter, Hendry made two major acquisitions, Kevin Gregg and Milton Bradley. Both were unmitigated disasters in 2009, while the very popular Mark DeRosa, sent to Cleveland for prospects, ended the season on the Division Champion Cardinals.

There weren't many bright spots for the Cubs this season. Derrek Lee had his best season since 2005. Randy Wells contended for Rookie of the Year. Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster all pitched fairly well, but all missed time with injuries, and none won more than twelve games.

The good news is, the Cubs have a lot of talent signed for next year. It's expensive talent and, this season at least, it was underperforming talent. But the odds would suggest that they will be better in 2010, even if they just stand pat. The only significant free agent they stand to lose is Rich Harden. Assuming the new ownership has pockets as deep as what Hendry has grown accustomed to, he will have some serious flexibility for pursuing his needs. He will have to decide whether to prioritize center field, second base, the back-end of the rotation, or middle-inning relief. In each and every case, the Cubs have modest in-house options (Kosuke Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Samardzija, etc.), so Hendry shouldn't be pressured if ideal candidates don't present themselves. He needs to resist the temptation to add more big, bad contracts to the collection the Cubs have already stockpiled.

As a Cubs fan, I can say I would really like to see them reel in a true center-fielder, but there aren't many on the market. Mike Cameron might make a good fit, if they could sign him to a one-year deal (with an option). A relatively cheap, defense-oriented guy like Coco Crisp might also be tempting.

Late in the season everybody assumed that the Cubs would dump the unpopular Bradley prior to next season, but the signing of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo may indicate that they are considering giving the highly-talented switch-hitter a second chance. Certainly, his value on the trade market has never been lower.

Milwaukee Brewers (Doug Melvin)

The Brewers have been, over the last five years, one of the best run franchises in the league, and they enter 2010 with many solid pieces in place. However, Melvin's window for chasing a championship with the current core of players won't be open for a whole lot longer. The Brewers best player, Prince Fielder, will be a free agent after 2011, as will Rickie Weeks, J. J. Hardy, and Dave Bush, followed by Corey Hart in 2012.

From my perspective, it looks like the time is now. The only hole in the Brewers lineup going into 2010 is center-field, where Mike Cameron is becoming a free agent. Cameron loves Milwaukee and is a popular clubhouse presence, so re-upping is hardly out of the question. They may also consider promoting somebody like Lorenzo Cain or Chris Duffy.

The point is, Melvin needs to focus his attention this offseason on pitching. Things are not as bad as they seem. Although the Brewers were last in the National League in rotational ERA this season, they will enter 2010 with a healthy David Bush and (hopefully) Chris Capuano. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, and Carlo Villanueva will all have an additional year under their belts. Several prospects, most notably Jeremy Jeffress, are rising rapidly through the ranks. And, for what it's worth, they still have Jeff Suppan.

What the Brewers really need (as C. C. Sabathia proved in 2008) is a veteran workhorse to insert into the front of their rotation, taking the pressure off Gallardo, especially, and everybody on down. Easier said than done, right? There aren't a whole lot of those pitcher in the game and John Lackey is the only one on the free agent market this season. As a Boras client, he's probably out of their price range.

However, what Milwaukee does have is a plethora of young talent, both major-league ready and in the lower rungs of the system. As it stands, Weeks, Hardy, Casey McGehee, Alcides Escobar, and Mat Gamel will be fighting for three starting positions on the infield. Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy may be ready to share major-league catching duties as soon as next spring. Scouts around baseball are fawning over the raw skills of Jeffress, Brett Lawrie, and Cutter Dykstra. Melvin could part with two or three top prospects (and other couple middle-tier guys) without totally gutting the system, and that might be all it takes to land Roy Halladay.