Opening Statements

The season is but a week old.  It's best not to overreact to half a dozen games.  As things stand, the Royals, Orioles, and Mets are all division leaders.  Something tells me that's not the way things are going to play out.  However, we spend the Hot Stove season pouring over payrolls and depth charts, imagining how Carl Crawford will look fielding a line drive off the Green Monster.  During Spring Training we watch odd melanges of half-assed veterans, anxious invitees, and youngsters playing out of position and hitting against  pitchers who may or may not have permission to throw their curveballs.  So, there really are instances when a team takes the field on Opening Day and you say, "Eureka!"

Nowhere was that response more pervasive than in Arlington this past weekend.  Certainly, I expected the defending American League Champions to be contenders again, but watching the Rangers club their way past the prohibitive AL favorites (Red Sox) I was reminded that last year's team may have only scratched the surface of its potential.  The Rangers have 30 extra-base hits in five games.  A significant portion of that damage has been done by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, two of the more injury-prone players in recent history, so there is a high likelihood that the Texas lineup will not be able to maintain its current depth for 162.  Nevertheless, every reporter who overhyped the Michael Young fiasco, bemoaned the departure of Cliff Lee, criticized the Adrian Beltre contract, or in any way contributed to the general impression that the 2010 Rangers were a fluke did his own team a considerable disservice.  Last season, the Rangers were dogged by controversy throughout the offseason and Ron Washington used it to spur them to an unprecedented performance.  It might've been difficult for them to re-harness that energy were they treated as the AL's foremost powerhouse.  But they weren't.  And after another offseason filled with criticism and second-guessing the Rangers are again playing with a chip on their shoulders.  They reminded us that even if they aren't the best team in the American League, they are at least in the conversation.

A similar situation has developed in Cincinnati.  The Reds dominated their division in 2010.  And, like the Rangers, their team has youth, depth, and payroll certainty, making it very likely that their best years are still ahead of them.  For some reason, however, punditry has favored the Cardinals this preseason, despite the fact that they lost their Ace and did very little to improve the problems which caused them to fall back of the Reds last year.  It pains me to say it, but the Cardinals just aren't a very well-constructed baseball team right now.  The real threat to a Cincinnati repeat in the NL Central is the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Reds made the first statement in a season-long battle by sweeping the Brewers on Opening Weekend.  Their underrated workhorse, Bronson Arroyo, the "Mark Buehrle of the National League," shrugged off his spring bout of mononucleosis to throw a seven-inning gem on Sunday afternoon, following two close games, one which the Reds won on a walk-off homer by Ramon Hernandez.  The Reds drew first blood, which means very little in the long run, but it should act as a reminder that they feature premier performers on both sides of the ball, something which few NL teams can boast.

A strong finish to 2010, an acclaimed manager, an active offseason, a vaunted farm system, and now a 4-0 start have made the Orioles a favorite darkhorse in the American League.  However, I'm more impressed by their AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays.  One could argue that both teams are vying for, at best, third place, but the increased parity in the division makes it possible that a few breaks could make it possible for one of these teams to sneak into the Wild Card race.  Ricky Romero's manhandling of the Twins furthered the impression that he could be the breakout pitcher of 2011.  (You can see more on Romero in my "21st Century Cy" post from the preseason.)  And, in the early going, the Jays have continued the power display of 2010, but with more balance (.304 AVG, .371 OBP, 17 BB, 19 K, 3 SB).  Obviously, it's a small sample size and we should not underestimate the fact that Twins are 6-20 against the Blue Jays since 2008.  It's clearly a good matchup for Toronto to open with, but I think the Jays will make everybody uncomfortable in 2011, especially when playing in the Skydome...er, Rogers Centre.  They've got an imposing, circular lineup and an frightening young pitching staff.  They could be erratic, but Romero, Kyle Drabek, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil are all guys with incredible "stuff."  No lineup looks forward to facing a stretch of pitcher like this, any one of whom could show up and be completely unhittable.  Whether they win 80 or 90, this is going to be a fun team to watch in 2011.

I think the fans of the D-Backs have a lot to look forward to.  The team is building around Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, and Daniel Hudson.  And everything about Kirk Gibson seems perfectly suited to this process.  However, as the D-Backs opened their season in Colorado we witnessed the difference between a team with lots of a potential and a team who's realized that potential.  Following the surprising runs by the Giants and Padres in 2010, it's ease to forget that the Rockies were the favorites for much of the season and have been to the playoffs twice in the last four years.  They are an efficient, well-oiled ballclub.  They take extra bases.  They turn double plays.  They limit baserunners and longballs.  They've got a deep bullpen and an impressive bench.  There are two other good teams in their division, the Giants and the Dodgers, both probably have deeper rotations than the Rockies, and in the NL West, the deepest rotation has, in recent years, usually been the key to victory.  But unlike the Giants, who are defensively challenged and the Dodgers, who trot out players you thought were retired (and probably should be) at three or four positions everyday, the Rockies are above average in every aspect of the game.  Is a well-rounded team better than one which absolutely dominates one aspect of the game?  Not necessarily, especially when that aspect is starting pitching.  But those that believe that NL West race is all about the L.A. v. S.F. rivalry are ignoring an elephant in the room.  

Hey, New York, Who's Your Daddy?

As I sat, familiarly flabbergasted, amidst a bar full of equally frustrated strangers, and watched the Yankees deliver a barrage of singles, piling up runs at a tortuously slow pace, as Ron Washington tried pitcher after pitcher in an effort to tourniquet the ridiculous trickle of scoring, I recognized that, despite the fact that C. J. Wilson had absolutely stymied the most infamous lineup in baseball for seven innings and the Rangers had chased New York's only dominant pitcher in four innings, the series might well be over by the end of Game One.  Even if you attempt to adhere to that Curt Schilling credo, that Mystique and Aura are just dancers at a nightclub, you cannot deny that the Yankees have a habit of getting in their opponents heads.  For ages, of course, it was that way with the Red Sox (if you haven't already, hurry over to iTunes and watch ESPN's Four Days In October documentary).  More recently, it's been that way with the Twins.  And, now, I feared, they had the Rangers on their heels, ever waiting for New York to again assert their superiority by doing something truly improbable (like scoring five runs in an inning, off one of the best bullpens in baseball, without hitting an homer, indeed, with the help of only one extra-base hit).  If the Yankees had successfully quelled the Rangers aggressive, can-do spirit, this series would be over in five.

But that didn't happen.

Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky."  In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck.  Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time.  Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line.  Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail.  If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder.  Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks.  That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.

On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson.  When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?"  Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday.  On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.

Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One.  At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games.  Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way.  Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson.  Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six.  Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.

If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee.  In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October.  In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger.  That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs.  As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.

If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.  

BBA Ballot: AL Connie Mack Award

Announcements of the second-annual BBA awards will begin later this week with the Connie Mack Award for managerial excellence.  Here's an explanation of my ballot for the American League:

American League:

Honorable Mentions: Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Ozzie Guillen (White Sox), & Joe Maddon (Rays)

Gardenhire is likely to get a lot of support this season, and much of it is deserved, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he was coaching the defending champion in the AL Central, a relatively weak division, and his front office blessed him with a 50% spike in payroll and brought in reinforcements like Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes for his depleted bullpen at the deadline.  Gardenhire did a pretty good job compensating for his team's defensive deficiencies and he got a lot out of his starting rotation, but I'm not sure the Twins dramatically exceeded expectations, which is arguably the best way of judging a manager.

Minnesota's rival, the White Sox, who stayed in the hunt until September, were probably a bigger surprise, as they were a losing team in 2009.  Guillen, as controversial as ever, might've won this award running away if he'd been able to mount a pennant-winning charge in the final month.  Even so, the Sox improved by nine wins, the third-biggest improvement in the AL, despite the fact that the roster had very little turnover.  I believe that Ozzie and GM Kenny Williams deserve at least a modest shout-out for that accomplishment.

It's hard to leave the winningest manager in the AL off my ballot, and I do believe Joe Maddon deserves a great deal of credit for the success the Rays have had the last three seasons.  He made some very deft moves this year.  As always, he managed his bullpen as efficiently and effectively as anybody in either league.  He was patient with his young pitchers and they rewarded him in spades.  He mixed and matched at four positions in order to keep everybody on his deep, talented bench involved.  The Rays played great defense, they got clutch hits (until recently), they held leads, and their starters pitched deep into games.  Impressive work, Joe.  It is, however, one of the most talent-laden rosters in recent memory and they went the entire season without a critical injury, so he had a pretty nice template to work from.  It would've been hard to manage this team out of the postseason.  So Maddon falls just a hair short of my ballot.

Third Place: Terry Francona (Red Sox)

Gardenhire's supporters will frequently cite the losses of closer, Joe Nathan, and All-Star first-baseman, Justin Morneau, but the Twins were the picture of health compared with Boston.  The Red Sox, who finished with just five fewer wins than Minnesota, in a significantly tougher division, suffered significant injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, and Mike Cameron, yet they were still within striking distance of a playoff berth with less than a week remaining.  Francona got way more than anyone could've expected out of replacement-level journeymen like Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, and Daniel Nava.  He continued to cobble together innings from an aging, overworked bullpen.  And he gingerly nursed the egos of his stars and they struggled with prolonged slumps, flukes, bad breaks, misdiagnoses, position battles, and quarrels, both on and off the field.  The Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, but one could easily argue that this was among Francona's most masterly performances.

Second Place: Cito Gaston (Blue Jays)

Last offseason, Toronto said a tearful goodbye to quite possible the greatest player in their franchise's history (only Carlos Delgado has a competitive claim), Roy Halladay.  They also gave away their most talented (and overpaid) hitter, Alex Rios.  Their two best hitters from 2009, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, began the season mired in horrible slumps and finished with a combined drop of more than 400 pts. in OPS.  Yet, somehow, despite everything working against them, the Blue Jays improved their record by ten wins in 2010.  With no Halladay, what passed for an elder statesman on Toronto's staff was 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who hadn't pitched in a single game during 2009, yet somehow four young Jays reached double-digit wins, and combined for a .627 winning percentage.

Gaston's much-maligned free-swinging approach helped Jose Bautista, John Buck, Fred Lewis, and Alex Gonzalez achieve career years, and former superstar Vernon Wells turned in his best season since 2006.  When the season began, this team was expected to be overwhelmed by the stiff competition of the AL East, but not only did they finish with a winning record, miles ahead of the Orioles, but they managed go 10-10 against the playoff-bound Yankees and Rays.  If you include Texas and Minnesota, Toronto was actually 23-16 against the best teams in the American League.  Gaston deserves at least some of the credit for this highly unexpected turnaround and his successor is going to have a very tough act to follow.

First Place: Ron Washington (Rangers)

Yes, I'm partial to Washington and the 2010 Rangers.  That's well-established by now.  However, the case for Washington goes well beyond his extremely high Narrative Likability Factor, buoyed in part by the adversity which marred the Rangers Spring Training and forced him into answering silly questions about cocaine.

The Rangers were not a charmed franchise this year, despite the fact that they turned in their best performance in over a decade.  For one thing, the fragile trio of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler remained fragile (Hamilton made 116 starts, Cruz 101, Kinsler 102).  Likewise, Rich Harden and Scott Feldman, who entered the season #1 and #2 in the rotation, made a combined total of 40 starts, compiled a record of 12-16, and an ERA upwards of 5.50.  Texas also spent a significant portion of the season without incumbent closer Frank Francisco.  There was an ongoing clusterfuck at three different positions, as highly-touted youngsters Julio Borbon, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, and Max Ramirez were all busts.  As a result, Texas ranked near the bottom of the league in OPS from catcher (28th), first base (27th), and center field (20th).  Clearly, not every move Ron Washington (and GM Jon Daniels) made worked out perfectly, but here are some crucial ones that did:

1.) Putting Elvis Andrus in the leadoff spot and leaving him there, even after Kinsler returned.  Andrus struggled a bit with a hamstring injury down the stretch, depressing his numbers, but his excellent first half (.361 OBP, 23 SB) helped Texas take control of the division.

2.) Putting Neftali Feliz in the closer role and leaving him there, even after Francisco returned.  Feliz notably set a rookie record for saves, with 40, threw 70 innings, and was among the most dominant closers in the AL (2.73 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 0.88 WHIP).

3.) Putting Alexi Ogando in the bullpen and leaving him there.  Ogando, another rookie, had not even thrown a pitch in A-ball prior to this season.  But the Rangers rushed him through the organization and Washington had the confidence to make him a late-inning reliever almost from the moment he reached the bigs.  In 44 innings, all coming after June 15, Ogando compiled a ridiculously low 1.30 ERA.

4.) Putting Tommy Hunter in the rotation and leaving him there.  With Harden, Feldman, Derrek Holland, and others clamoring for starts in the second half, the 23-year-old Hunter was not the favorite of many in the Dallas media.  But the Hoosier responded with eight straight wins in June and July.  He finished the season 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA and will take the ball in Game 4 of the ALDS.

As you can see, Washington never made the easy decision by going with the status quo or a mediocre veteran over ayoung player.  He had the audacity to go against the conventional wisdom, even though many local sportswriters were calling for his head even before the season began.  Even on the hot seat, Washington was always the picture of calm and never threw one of his players under the bus.  And, now, largely due to his example, the Rangers are a win away from their first ever ALCS (knock on wood).

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers

If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity.  If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October.  This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:

• Performance Impairing Drugs:  Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year.  Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports.  The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business.  This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
• The Painted Man:  Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse.  Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction.  The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006.  He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field.  When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game.  And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for.  The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
• They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates:  The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago.  The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
• Big Daddy:  Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame.  But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal.  Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season.  But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role.  The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter.  Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI.  He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
• AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday.  When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show.  Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League.  He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
• The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history.  That is, until recently.  Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch.  Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution.  Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998.  They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings.  The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego.  The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster.  Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League.  These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
• They're Due:  There are thirty MLB franchises.  Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961.  Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series.  They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99).  Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters.  Texas got nothing.  Nada.  So they're due.  

Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials.  They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres.  They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups.  Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL).  With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen.  All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays).  Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.  

Narrative Likability: A+   

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...I've Got No Frickin' Clue Who's Gonna Win the AL West

It's damn sure going to be fun to watch.

You've got the Scioscia-constructed juggernaut, the Los Angeles Angels, who are coming off three consecutive division titles (and five of the last six), but look oddly unfamiliar without Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins.

There's the offseason darling, the Seattle Mariners, whose GM seems to be every sportswriter's new man-crush (myself included), even though his highest finish thusfar is third place.  The Mariners have a pair of Aces (King Felix & Cliff Lee), a pair of exceptional leadoff hitters (Ichiro & Chone Figgins), and a pair of designated hitters (Ken Griffey Jr. & Milton Bradley), but it isn't quite clear whether all the pieces will fit nicely together.

There's a redemption song being written in Texas, as Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton try to overcome offseason drug scandals (not the performance-enhancing kind), Vladimir Guerrero tries to prove his career is far from over, and Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux try to figure out how to get 200 innings out of Rich Harden.

And, finally, there are the sneaky-good Oakland Athletics.  Billy Beane has shunned household names following the Holliday-Giambi-Garciaparra debacle in 2009, but he's got tons of young talent on both side of the ball, and won't hesitate to give anybody and everybody an opportunity.  The players in the mix for the rotation, especially, could make their divisional rivals very, very uncomfortable.

At some point during the last month I've imagined every team in this division as worthy of my support.

Offseason Prospectus #25: The Texas Rangers

In 2009 the Rangers had their best finish of the decade, despite the fact that they scored fewer runs than they had in any season since 1995.  The key, of course, was that they also allowed fewer runs than they had in any season since '95, thanks to dramatic improvements in pitching and defense.  While Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Jack Zduriencik have been given, appropriately, a great deal of credit for spearheading the recent movement away from evaluation based primarily on offense, equal billing should go to the Rangers administration led by Nolan Ryan, Jon Daniels, and Ron Washington.  Under their leadership, Texas has shifted the focus away from the homer-happy atmosphere that dominated most of the decade in Arlington, and the results thusfar have been very encouraging.

Texas's team ERA in 2009 was 4.38, good for 8th in the American League, which doesn't seem that great until you consider that Texas finished dead last the previous season and has not finished with an ERA below 4.50 since 1993, which was, coincidently, Ryan's last season as a player, and the season before the opening of The Smallpark at Arlington.  The Rangers pitchers were actually at their best during the midsummer months which usually coincide with a spike in long balls, as the staff went 17-8 with a 3.59 ERA in July.

There are many reasons to be excited about the Rangers prospects in 2010, as nobody on the staff is over thirty except for Frank Francisco (30) and Darren Oliver (39).  The Rangers were admirably cautious with their youngsters in '09, not allowing any of them to throw much over 150 innings.  Nevertheless, I would urge Rangers fans to temper their expectations.  It's a team I'll be watching with extraordinary interest and anticipation next season, but teams build on young players are notoriously inconsistent.  The 2010 Rangers are in some ways reminiscent of the 2008 Rays, who rode their young core all the way to the World Series.  Unfortunately, they are equally reminiscent of the 2008 D-Backs, a young team that backtracked considerably after a surprisingly strong showing in '07.

BBA Awards Ballot: Manager of the Year (AL)

My new BBA membership has me all riled up to discuss regular season awards, so I'm going to put my playoff ranting on hold for the morning at least and address the Manager of the Year ballot in the American League. For the record, as a member without an affiliation, I will choose one league for each award.

While I'm actually more of a National League fan, I've got some strong opinions about AL manager in '09. As much as possible I am trying to distinguish between the job done by the on-field manager and that done by the GM. So, although I think Don Wakamatsu did a great job in Seattle, especially managing his pitching staff, I'm not ready to give him credit for the prioritization of defense which led to the acquisitions of Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, as well as the long-overdue ousting of Yuniesky Betancourt. I also think that Joe Girardi earned his stripes in New York this season, but, of course, he was handed a behemoth of a team and he was fairly fortunate. Despite preseason uncertainties 8 of the 9 top Yankee hitters got 500+ plate appearances (only Posada got less and he still managed well over 400). 80% of the Opening Day starting rotation made 30+ starts (with Chien-Ming Wang being the only exception). So, the argument for Girardi, I think, stems from his dealings with off-the-field pressures and his Tony LaRussa-like construction of a dominant bullpen as though from thin air (remember how bad things were out there in April and May?!?). It was an impressive job, but it still leaves him just outside my top three.

3. Terry Francona - Boston Red Sox

As the opening paragraph suggests, overcoming adversity is perhaps the quality I most admire in a manager. Only on very rare occasions do teams get exactly what the expected from every member of their opening day roster. Injuries, unexpected ineffectiveness, and chemistry problems test both the depth of an organization, the creativity of the GM, and the perceptive tenacity of the field manager. Theo Epstein is a GM extraordinaire (the V-Mart deal was a midseason coup), but to say that is sometimes to underestimate the contribution Francona has made in the Red Sox exceptional run since he took over in 2004.

This season's team looked much different than any during his tenure. No Manny. No Schilling or Pedro. Much noted declines from Varitek, Lowell, and Big Papi. The 2009 Red Sox were going to feed off of the next generation of BoSox: Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Papelbon, and Lester. And, as might be expected, it wasn't a perfect transition. Pedroia and Lester got off to slow starts. Youkilis battled nagging physical issues and perhaps even more nagging mental ones. A rotation that was expected to be very deep faltered early and their top winner from 2008, Dice-K, made only three quality starts, all of them in September.

Francona handled everything superbly. He stuck with Big Papi through two hellish months and was rewarded with an excellent performance in the final four. He forced Youkilis into a short spell on the DL and regular days off to keep him fresh. He didn't allow Dice-K to rush back. After the acquisition of V-Mart, he managed a delicate rotation of stars (or former stars) at C, 1B, 3B, and DH. He resisted the temptation to overuse the flamethrowing rookie, Daniel Bard (perhaps he'd been watching what was happening with Carlos Marmol, who Lou Pinella tortured with long, stressful appearances in '07 and '08). He waited an extra month to bring Clay Buchholz back and got excellent results in the second half.

Francona remained always the picture of calm during the most stormy season of his managing career.

2. Mike Scioscia - Los Angeles Angels

I certainly won't argue that Scioscia doesn't get enough credit. The discussions of him in the Orange County media would make you think he was still calling games and blocking the plate, a kind of idyllic Pete Rose player-manager, with none of the baggage. He hawks refrigerators and pizzas and building supplies and second mortgages. Scioscia has proved himself again and again, and thus his legend grows. Only Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa have more local reknown and influence over the macro- and micro- workings of their organizations.

The postseason commentary will certainly stress the unfortunate death of Nick Adenhart, as it should. What that disguises is that even before the Adenhart tragedy, Scioscia was facing a challenge that was almost entirely new. From 2001-2008, the Angels never finished lower than sixth in the AL in ERA; never above 4.28. Year after year, Scioscia put together rotations, bullpens, and defense that assured that his ballclub could stay in every game, even if they only scored three or four runs. During Spring Training, it looked like there would be more of the same. Scioscia was returning all five starters from last year's division-leading rotation and had Adenhart and former 18-game winner, Kelvim Escobar, waiting in the wings. Yet, of those front seven, only Jared Weaver and Joe Saunders made more than one start in April. Ervin Santana and John Lackey tried to rush back and combined for an 8.00 ERA in eight starts in May.

Meanwhile, despite K-Rod move to New York, Scioscia still had most of the key pieces to his great bullpens of '07 and '08: Scot Shields, Jose Arrendondo, and Justin Speier. They combined for an ERA above 6.00 in '09. The primary Angels slugger, Vladimir Guerrero, missed 35 games in April and May. There was no way this team should been anywhere near .500 after the first two month.

Yet, in the middle of May, even after getting swept by the division-leading Rangers, they were 18-18. They held on strong to that .500 record until mid-June (29-29), when they began a stretch of fifteen interleague games, of which they won twelve, and never looked back.

With his pitching in tatters, Scioscia decided he was going to have to score lots of runs. And so, whereas in the past he had resisted playing defensively-challenged power-hitters like Mike Napoli, Kendry Morales, and Juan Rivera everyday, he finally handed them starting jobs and they hit 79 HR and drove in 252 RBI. With the help of Bobby Abreu, he made slick-fielding, slap-hitting middle infielders, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, into .300 hitters who were on base over 35% of the time. And he let everybody run wild, just like he always had. Six players netted double-digits in stolen bases.

Now, the reformed Angels are headed into October with some offensive thunder AND their pitching staff. Lackey racked up a 2.89 ERA in his last seven starts. Santana was at 2.84 over his last ten. Neither Shields, Speier, or Arrendondo made the postseason roster. In their places sit Kevin Jepsen (2.93 ERA, 43 IP, 42 K since July 1), Jason Bulger (2.48 ERA, 58 IP, 60 K since May 1), and Matt Palmer (2.74 ERA in 46 IP as a reliever). For most of the last decade, Scioscia has been credited with a particular "style" of AL baseball. This year he broke his own mold. That's worthy of serious consideration.

1. Ron Washington - Texas Rangers

I know, you were expecting Ron Gardenhire. And you aren't wrong, Gardenhire faced some serious adversity, went without the dominant rotation which had defined his tenure in Minnesota, and squeaked into the postseason with a lineup that included Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Brendan Harris. However, Mr. Washington still had a better record (by 1/2 game) and he dealt with all of the above, but without the strong template to start from.

Let's face it, if I had told you at the beginning of the season that the 2009 Rangers were going to finish behind the Angels, the Twins, and the Blue Jays in runs scored, you would've been guessing that they won closer to 40 games than 90. Josh Hamilton was putrid, and hurt. Chris Davis was worse, though healthy. No Texas player made 145 starts. Among players with 100+ plate appearances, only Michael Young (.374), Julio Borbon (.376), and David Murphy (.338) posted OBP above the league average (.335). Four regulars posted OBP under .300. Sure, eight players had 17 or more homers, but this is in Arlington, the ballpark that made power threats out of Gary Matthews Jr. and Rusty Greer. Royce Clayton hit 14 HR there, twice!!! Much more telling is the fact that no Ranger drove in 90 and only Ian Kinsler scored more than 80.

Yet they won 87 games. The Texas Rangers were a pitching and defense team!!! Much credit will be given to Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux for the reformations of Scott Feldman, Dustin Nippert, and Kevin Millwood. And that's probably just. However, Washington still oversaw that development and managed a staff that suffered prolonged injuries to its closer (Frank Francisco), two of its middle-of-the-rotation starters (Matt Harrison & Brandon McCarthy), and a primary set-up man (Eddie Guardado). Washington also dealt with the transition of Young to third base, he and Omar Vizquel assured that Elvis Andrus was a gold glove caliber shortstop in his very first season, and he juggled crazy platoon situations at catcher, first base, and in the outfield. He had to figure out what to do exactly with a strange roster than included five corner outfielders (Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Marlon Byrd, Murphy, and Borbon), three designated hitters (Hank Blalock, Chris Davis, and Andruw Jones), no true centerfielders, and only one backup infielder (Vizquel). As a prize for leading his division at the All-Star Break, management, dogged by financial problems, made no deadline deals and pretty much allowed the Angels to storm to another AL West title.

Washington isn't going to win this award, either from the BBA or the BBWA, but I think he's as legitimate a candidate as anybody and hopefully will be fronting the Ranger for many years to come.

Honorable Mention: Ron Gardenhire (MIN), Joe Girardi (NYY), Don Wakamatsu (SEA), Cito Gaston (TOR)

And, just for posterity, if I had voted for the NL version of the award, my ballot would've been pretty conventional: 3. Joe Torre (LAD), 2. Jim Tracy (COL), 1. Tony LaRussa (STL).