Trane Leaving L.A.?

My man-crush on Russell Martin is no secret.  Honestly, what's not to like?  Martin plays the game with a tenacity unrivaled by his contemporaries.  His father is a busking saxophonist (thus, the middle-name Coltrane).  His mother is a French-Canadian lounge singer.  Drafted as an infielder in the 17th round (2002), Martin converted to catcher in 2003 and raced through the Dodgers minor-league system.  A flurry of fortuitous injuries helped him become the Dodgers everyday catcher in 2006, at the age of 23.  He played so well the Dodgers were forced to trade top prospect, Dioner Navarro, who they'd long expected to fill that roll.  Martin rewarded them with back-to-back All-Star campaigns in '07 and '08.  He also won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and, by the age of 25, looked on track to be among the best players at his position for a very long time to come.  Two years ago we could've had a legitimate argument about who's future was brightest, his or Joe Mauer's?

Unfortunately, those days are long gone.  In '09 his production fell off the table, mainly due to a complete absence of power.  In his first three seasons, Martin had averaged 14 HR and a .433 SLG.  Not Mike Piazza, certainly, but enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest.  In '09 his slugging percentage dropped to an abysmal .329 and he hit just seven dingers.  His offensive woes prompted speculation that he was playing through an injury.  Perhaps Grady Little and Joe Torre had leaned too hard on their young backstop.  Martin led major-league catchers in innings from '07 to '09, by a relatively wide margin.  Had his heavy workload and Charlie Hustle disregard for endangering his body caught up to him?

Such rumors gained steam this past year, when Martin failed to rebound offensively and then had his season cut short by a hip injury.  At this point there are those who suggest that Martin may be a candidate to be traded or even non-tendered prior to the arbitration hearing in the spring.  The Dodgers are notably cash-strapped by the McCourt divorce and face potentially expensive negotiations with Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, and James Loney.  Martin made just over $5 Million in 2010 and would probably be due for a small raise as well.  If the Dodgers aren't confident he can return to some semblance of his previous self, it may be fiscally safer to part ways, even if it means getting nothing in return for a two-time All-Star.

I certainly don't believe that to be the case.  Martin is still young (he'll be 28 in February) and catchers of his caliber, on both sides of the ball, are a truly rare commodity.  Yes, the Dodgers would have to commit $6 or $7 Million to an uncertain proposition in 2011, but they could very well end up with a player worth more than twice that much, who would then have an abundance of value leading into his contract season in 2012.  Sure, if Martin repeats his '09 and '10 performances, he'll have zero market next winter.  But trading him now would still be a dramatic case of "selling low."  Even teams desperate for catching aren't going to give the Dodgers anything more than spare parts for a player coming off of major surgery.  Best-case scenario they might be able to trade disappointments with a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, but they don't have a natural replacement for Martin waiting in the wings and they have too many other holes to fill this offseason to be creating them at positions where there are extreme market limitations.

It is much easier to find a competent left-fielder or third baseman than a competent catcher.  And Martin is, at worst, competent.  His WARs in '09 and '10 were consistent, 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, which is actually middle of the pack for everyday catchers (16 of 23 in '10, 11 of 23 in '09).  His defensive contributions, as well as his decent OBP, make him a virtual lock to outperform free agents like A. J. Pierzynski, Bengie Molina, and Rob Barajas, who would be the Dodgers other alternatives.  Martin remains a popular player among the Dodger faithful, at a time when support for the franchise is being tested.  He also possesses many of the qualities which new manager, Don Mattingly, also represented when he was a player, and their relationship is reportedly a strong one.

I certainly can see the cause for skepticism, but I think it's too early to throw in the towel on Russell Martin.  I hope to see him back in blue in 2011.  

UPDATE:  Apparently Ned Colletti didn't see it this way.  The Dodger did not offer Martin a contract for the 2011 season and he is now free to negotiate with other teams.  Colletti stated that L.A. "is pretty far down the road" in negotiations with a replacement.  The potential upgrade over Martin in the remaining free agent pool is Miguel Olivo.

I expect most GMs will view Martin neck and neck with Olivo.  With several teams still unsettled at catcher, he should generate plenty of interest.  Those who missed out on Victor Martinez will no doubt see some consolation in a younger, defensively superior backstop who has significant offensive upside.  Thus, Boston is a natural suitor, as are the Mariners, Mets, Astros, Padres, and even the Yankees, if they choose to delay the arrival of Jesus Montero.

FireJoeMorgan.com About To Go The Way Of FireEricBruntlett.com?

The biggest news so far this offseason may be the prompt dismissal of the longest-tenured national broadcast team in professional baseball, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan.  There have long been objections to Morgan's stubborn subjectivity and frequent bouts of megalomania masquerading as nostalgia, but ESPN finally pulled the plug following a second failed attempt at enlivening the broadcast with some fresh blood. In 2009, they temporarily turned to Steve Phillips, with hilarious results.  One might even surmise that the weekly public emasculations drove Phillips into the arms of Bristol interns.  This year the network forced Orel "Bulldog" Hershiser upon the Un-Dynamic Duo.  Living up to his nickname, I'd say Hershiser held his ground, defending himself calmly and articulately against Morgan's tendency to contradict everything he had to say with condescension and even vitriol.  I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldog is back in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth in 2011, alongside some new partners.  Although I've been watching Sunday Night broadcasts on mute for most of the last half-decade, I will admit feeling a slight pang when reading the announcement.  Miller and Morgan were beloved figures in my childhood, before I realized that Morgan's color commentary had about as much variety as a Speak 'N' Spell.  And, although I find his pandering unfortunate (but probably necessary), I still find Miller to be a fine radio-style play-by-play man with a soothing voice.  They won't be missed, but they will be remembered.    

Jhonny Come Lhately

The free agent sweepstakes got started this week with a relatively underwhelming deal for Jhonny Peralta (2 Years/$11.25 Million with a $7 Million option for '13).  Peralta did a satisfactory job for Detroit after being acquired at the deadline.  His defense at shortstop is certainly suspect.  With Peralta and Carlos Guillen in the middle infield, the Tigers might want to consider employed a "rover" to stand behind the second base bag.  But Peralta can hit a little.  By wrapping him up, alongside the rangy Brandon Inge, the Tigers have at least bought themselves some payroll certainty so they can concentrate on replacing Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon, and perhaps give Miguel Cabrera a little lineup protection.  Detroit is finally out from under the strangulating contracts they gave to Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson.  All told, their commitments could drop as much as 50% from '10 to '11, so Dombrowski may again be a player this winter.  With Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello fronting a potentially dominant rotation, the Tigers may not be that far from contending in their mediocre division.

SPH S.S.S. Update

Those who followed my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey may be interested to know that no fewer than five of the eight participants will be free agents this winter.  It would've been six had it not been for the Dodgers eagerness to wrap up Ted Lilly before he got a chance to test the market (3 yrs./$33 Million).  Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, and Jeff Francis will all likely be pushed into single-season, incentive-laden deals, since none of them were able to prove themselves healthy before the end of the year.  Freddy Garcia, on the other hand, threw over 150 innings before being shut down with a minor back injury in September.  He was far from dominant, but could be very tempting for teams interested in a cheap innings-eater to slot in to the back of their youthful rotation.  Detroit could be a logical fit, in fact, as could Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis, or Washington.  

The most interesting player from amongst the survey participants is definitely Jeremy Bonderman.  Bonderman ended the year poorly, but showed flashes of his former potential and did not make any return trips to the D.L.  He's still in his twenties and was once among the most promising young players in the A.L.  New scenery could be good for him, as will another year of remove from his injury.  Perhaps he's ready for the Dave Duncan treatment in 2011?

B-Stars

It'll be several months before Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, and Adrian Beltre have all signed and we can start identifying potential steals from amongst this free agent class, but I'd direct your attention to a couple underrated players hitting the market.

Miguel Olivo's production fell off the table in the second half, to the extent that it almost looks like he might've been playing through an injury.  But Olivo really should've been the NL starter at the All-Star Game, after hitting .325 with 11 HR and a 925 OPS in his first three months with Colorado.  His inability to maintain that pace isn't too surprising, but Olivo has definitely proved himself an outstanding game-caller and thrower, who is also a better than average hitter for his position.  Catchers of his caliber are truly rare, yet he's been consistently overlooked (which happens when you play for Florida and Kansas City).  I expect he could be a good fit for the Reds, Mets, Mariners, or Rangers.

The Peralta signing is explained in part by the fact that the middle infield class is very weak this year.  As such, this may finally be the winter that Orlando Hudson gets the multiyear deal he so richly deserves.  O-Dog was clearly beloved by his Minnesota teammates.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he agrees to return.  He was the eighth most valuable second-baseman in 2010, worth more than $12 Million according to FanGraphs for the second year in the row.  Despite the consistency of his production (with one minor hiccup during an injury-plagued 2008), Hudson has had to accept a succession of one-year deals for much less than he's worth.  The Cubs, Astros, Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, and Twins all need to fill gaping holes at second base and the only other free agents who play there are utilitymen like Felipe Lopez, David Eckstein, Bill Hall, and Cristian Guzman.  Hudson might finally have the bargaining leverage he needs.

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (NL)

Among the many things that bother me about the All-Star voting process is the fact that the ballot does not distinguish between left, center, and right field.  It's as though MLB is implying that defense makes no difference.  In a game that has World Series home-field advantage riding on it, the NL may end up starting Jayson Werth in center field.  Don't get me wrong, Werth is a very good outfielder, but there's a reason why the Phillies prefer him in right.  It could be even worse if Werth were to be overtaken in the voting by Jason Heyward or Matt Holliday (well within the realm of possibility, as the top six oufielders are only seperated by about 200,000 votes).  We could easily end up with Ryan Braun and his -7.2 UZR/150 patrolling center-field.  With the A.L. likely handing its spots to Ichiro, Carl Crawford, and Josh Hamilton (assuming Nelson Cruz is injured), all of whom are excellent fielders with experience playing center, the N.L. finds itself with at least one immediate disadvantage.

Here's a look at my endorsements for the senior circuit:

Fantastic Thoughts: "Bengie Molina ate one of my keepers." (Catcher Preview)

A couple weeks ago, it looked all but certain that the eldest Molina was headed to New York, but Brian Sabean swooped in at the last minute and saved Omar Minaya from further embarrassment.  Giants fans can look at the move with ambivalence.  Molina, despite his pathetic on-base percentages, is a decent contact hitter with good power (for a catcher), who is a dependable defensive presence and is familiar with the pitching staff.  When your success is deeply tied to the starting rotation, as San Francisco's so clearly is, it's hard to hand the catcher position to a rookie, no matter how promising he is.

From a fantasy perspective, this is bad, bad news.  Molina is a known commodity who doesn't excite anybody, because his decent power totals (20 HR, 80 RBI in '09) are offset by mediocre performances elsewhere (52 R, .265 AVG).  Molina is the kind of catcher you get stuck with late in a draft or auction because you unwisely spent your funds elsewhere.  Buster Posey, on the other hand, when he was slated as the Giants primary backstop, was the kind of high-upside rookie that fantasy owners get all tweeked about, especially in keeper leagues.  Splitting time between two minor-league levels last season, Posey hit .325 with 18 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB, and a 947 OPS in just 115 games.  Obviously, there will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old at the major-league level, but given 450+ at-bats, I'd be willing to bet that Posey could outhit Molina, even as a rookie.  Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know.

The catcher position is, as usual, painfully thin.  There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop.

In leagues that require you to carry two active catchers, the strategy is much different.  In such leagues, the Molinas, Pierzynskis, and Ramon Hernandez's of the world are pure gold, merely because they are holding down regular ABs.  Only sixteen catchers got 400 plate appearances in 2009.  Only nine got as many as 500.  In a twelve-team league, that means more that half the owners were starting part-time players, perhaps juggling a couple of them, trying to guess which day Mike Scioscia would go with Jeff Mathis, or which day Jim Tracy would rest Yorvit Torrealba.  Needless to say, this can be a frustrating experience.  When Miguel Olivo goes yard on the Sunday afternoon you chose to start Jason Varitek, who ended up getting the night off, it's like leaving your windows down during a rainstorm the night after you paid full price for a car wash.  You're double fucked.

1. Joe Mauer (Twins)
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox)
3. Brian McCann (Braves)
4. Russell Martin (Dodgers)

These are, obviously, the cream of the crop, and with the exception of Martin, you'll have to pay through the nose to get them, even though they probably won't register as many ABs as a starting first-baseman or outfielder.  Moreover, each of the big three have had injury issues at some point during the last two seasons, which makes that second or third round pick even more unsettling.

Martin was horrible in 2009 and many will, justifiably, knock him down into the second or third tier, but I'm choosing instead to focus on how consistently good he was in his two previous seasons, during which he averaged 87 R, 16 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB, with a .286 AVG.  Those totals, especially the steals, are exceedingly rare out of the catcher position, so I'll happily have another go-round with Trane this spring, rather than settle for somebody who's yet to prove they can get anywhere near such numbers.

Bold Predictions: Employment Edition

• Two veteran closers lost their jobs yesterday, Jason Isringhausen of the Cardinals and Eric Gagne of the Brewers.  Both manager, Tony LaRussa and Ned Yost (the teams were playing each other, ironically), promised a closer-by-committee situation.  But, we should take heed of who they turned to for their first opportunities.  On Saturday afternoon LaRussa handed the ball to Ryan Franklin in the 9th.  Franklin has a 1.89 ERA with 12 holds, so it's hard for me to imagine a situation in which he would not be a good choice.  It took him 14 pitches to dispense with the top of the Brewers order.  Today, Ned Yost turned the ball over to Salomon Torres.  Torres, a former closer for the Pirates, has gone 3-0 with a save, two holds, and a 2.74 ERA since arriving in Milwaukee.  He has a history of success and durability, pitching 90+ innings for Pittsburgh three seasons in a row from '04-'06 with an ERA below 3.00, 15 saves, and 58 holds.  While it is possible that LaRussa and Yost might opt for Russ Springer or Brian Shouse when they see an all left-handed lineup, those situations will be rare.  Fantasy owners should set their sights on Franklin and Torres.
• For those playing in leagues that require two or more catchers, might I suggest taking a look at Miguel Olivo of the Royals. Olivo has made 15 starts already this season, either in favor of John Buck or as the DH.  He's got 4 HR and 10 RBI. Only seven backstops can match those numbers. Granted, it's a small sample, but this is a tough position to fill and sometimes you've got to take some risks. Olivo does have a history of decent power, hitting 16 HR in each of the last two seasons. So if you're currently carrying Buck, Josh Bard, Brian Schneider, or Chris Coste, you'd probably be better served by picking up Olivo.
• The Tigers cut ties with Jacque Jones this week as part of their ongoing efforts to shake up the offense.  Detroit is second in the AL in scoring, so one must question whether they should really be punishing position players.  I might have considered sending a message through Nate Robertson (1-4, 6.64).  There are two points to be made here.  First, Jacque Jones is going to land elsewhere, probably as a starter.  Last year, after a slow start, Jones hit .332 with 46 RBI after the All-Star break.  He proved he could play respectably well at any outfield position, so there are plenty of potential suitors, including the Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Twins.  He could be a very productive fourth or fifth outfielder in a deep fantasy league.  Additionally, Jones' release has resulted in more playing time for Marcus Thames and Matt Joyce, while Sheffield gets more playing time in left field.  However, Matt Joyce isn't going to be the Tiger's long-term solution.  Obviously, there has been a frenzy of media speculation about Barry Bonds.  It would be a logical match, undoubtedly, and one must wonder whether Detroit could do any better (certainly not for the price).  However, Tigers management has already angered some of their fellow Robber Barons by handing out several monster contracts in the last couple seasons, will they risk the additional spite from the commissioner's office by breaking the collusion agreement regarding Bonds?  It seems doubtful.  On the other hand, they ransacked their farm system in order to get Cabrera and Willis, so they probably don't have the right set of pieces for acquiring an left-handed impact guy like Andre Ethier (unless they deal Inge and eat much of his contract).  They may be forced to consider Bonds or Kenny Lofton (who might actually be the better fit).
• One has to wonder how much longer John Gibbons will be managing the Toronto Blue Jays.  He has quite possibly the best pitching staff in all of baseball, but hasn't been able to climb out of the AL East cellar.  Sure, you can't blame Gibbons for injuries to Vernon Wells, David Eckstein, Jeremy Accardo, and John McDonald.  However, what you can blame Gibbons for is being too patient with his starting pitchers and not patient enough with his hitters.  Twice in the series with Cleveland he sent an Ace back out to the mound after he had thrown well over a hundred pitches (Halladay in the 7th on Friday, Burnett in the 8th today), only to be forced to remove him after he'd allowed several baserunners.  What I don't understand, especially, is that we're talking about a team that has a solid bullpen and starters who have already worked deep into the game.  If he was trying to push his horses to give him quality starts, it might be one thing, but these guys were clearly exhausted, having already done their jobs!  Hand the ball to Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, and B. J. Ryan, all of whom have pitched excellently so far and had plenty of rest, because the Toronto rotation consistently pitches deep into games, even when Gibbons isn't forcing it on them.  They also has Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp (and Accardo, until recently) out there who haven't started the season very strong, but have histories of success.  There is plenty of depth, but Gibbons only seems to trust his Aces.  I don't think anybody's mismanaged a quality pitching staff this badly since Grady Little got booted out of Boston.  Additionally, Gibbons' has also had a much-publicized confrontation with Frank Thomas, which resulted in the Big Hurt heading to Oakland where he has a .391 OBP and 10 RBI in 17 games.  The only guys with 10 RBI for Toronto during that span is, you guessed it, Vernon Wells, who won't be taking the field again for two months.  Without Thomas or Wells, Alex Rios will have to move to center field, and the corner outfield spots and DH with presumably be shared by some combination of Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Matt Stairs.  Stairs has played quite well, but Stewart, Wilkerson, and Mench have combined for 7 runs, 0 HR, and 11 RBI in close to 200 ABs so far.  Meanwhile, Adam Lind, a bonafide top prospect toils at AAA, where he is hitting .329 with a 903 OPS.  But, since he didn't produce in the first three games after they released Thomas, Gibbons benched him and eventually he had to be sent back so he could get regular playing time.  The Jays had very high expectation going into the season and they still aren't that far back in the crowed AL East.  Any team with this much pitching can get hot and make a run, as the Padres prove almost every year, but I think Toronto is going to need to spur it by firing their hot-headed manager and bringing in a fresh perspective.  Hey, I think Jack McKeon is available.