21st Century Cys (2011 Edition)

Last season about this time, in response to "out of nowhere" Cy Young award-winners like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee, I offered a method for identifying the next set of pitchers who could climb suddenly to the elite Ace status.  You can read the original for more on my rationale, but the basic premise is to identify pitchers who haven't garnered Cy Young attention in previous seasons, but are in their mid-twenties, have at one time or another been considered blue-chip prospects, and are coming off respectable, but not dominant, seasons.  This was the 2010 class:

Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers (25-years-old in '10, 1st-Rnd. Pick in '03)
12-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 K, 192 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.4), '10 All-Star

John Danks - Chicago White Sox (25, 1st-Rnd. '03)
15-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 K, 213 IP, 4.3 WAR (+1.4)

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers (24, Baseball America #16 Prospect in '07)
14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 200 K, 185 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.9)

Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox (26, BA #4 '04)
10-12, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 181 K, 209 IP, 3.8 WAR (+0.3), No-Hitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (25, Entered League at 22)
19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP, 6.3 WAR (+0.6), '10 All-Star Starter, #3 NL Cy Young Voting, #23 NL MVP Voting, No-Hitter

John Lannan, Washington Nationals (25, Entered League at 22)
8-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 71 K, 143 IP, 1.2 WAR (-0.3)

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (27, Entered League at 23)
14-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 158 IP, 2.5 WAR (-1.8)

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (27, 1st-Rnd. '04)
13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224 IP, 5.9 WAR (+2.0)

As you can see, although none won the Cy Young award (both leagues chose a player who was a perennial favorite), two pitchers, Jimenez and Weaver, were legitimate contenders, six of our eight pitchers improved upon their '09 campaigns (according to WAR), and five of the eight set career highs in WAR.  In total, the "21st Century Cy" class of 2010 combined for a 5.5 win improvement.  The only two backtrackers, Lannan and Nolasco, were derailed mainly by early season slumps.  After a month-long demotion, Lannan actually bounced back to go 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in the second half.   Nolasco had his season ended early, but not before he put together a solid sixteen start stretch in which he went 10-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 9.7 K/9.

I used the "21st Century Cy" designation as part of my BLOGZKRIEG! draft stategy, landing Jimenez, Weaver, Gallardo, Danks, Jackson, and Lannan, and they were a big part of my eventual championship. Was this merely good fortune?  Well, there's only one way to find out.  Using the same formula as last season, I've identified a new class of "21st Century Cys."  It's signficantly larger than the 2010 class, indicating the dearth of good young pitching in the major leagues right now.  Three players from last season's class - Billingsley, Danks, and Gallardo - still qualify based upon all my criteria, but I won't bother profiling them again.  Here are the other candidates:

Are the Nationals fooling anybody?

In the wake of Stephen Strasburg's latest round of dominance - he's allowed one lonely single in twelve innings at AAA - it may be time for the Nationals to reevaluate their course of action.  When Washington send him down at the beginning of the season, they insisted it has nothing to do with his arbitration clock.  They wanted him to develop his arm strength in low-pressure situations.  They wanted him to work on a third pitch, his changeup, which had been utterly irrelevant during his college career.  And they wanted him to increase the speed of his delivery in the stretch and work on holding runners.

At this point, however, one has to wonder whether there is any utility for Strasburg pitching in the minors.  Assuming he's throwing his changeup consistently - and the scouts say that he is - it must be working pretty well, because he's got 40 strikeouts in 34 innings.  Presumably, they aren't too worried about developing his arm strength any further, considering they're pulling him after six innings, even when he has a no-hitter going.  And it's damned hard for him to work on holding runners when he's only allowing about three per start.

Strasburg's given up only one extra-base hit (a double) and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4-to-1.  I'm certainly not ready to argue that he'll immediately dominate the National League the way he's dominated the Eastern and International Leagues, but I just don't see how we can call what he's doing at AAA "development."  Pitchers "develop" by working out of jams, by responding to adversity, by facing hitters who are capable of beating them when they make even the slightest mistake, perhaps even when they don't.  None of those things are happening in Syracuse.

So, at this point, the only logical reason for Strasburg remaining in the minors is fiscal.  Don't get me wrong: that's a good reason!  The Nationals are not a probably not a contending team this season, despite their respectable record thusfar, and, learning from the Rays, Rangers, and Rockies, they are no doubt aware that team with their budget cannot make fly-by-night promotional decisions.  As soon as the Nationals are comfortable that Strasburg won't be making Super Two status, he'll be in the big leagues.  But for fans, both in Washington and across the country, that's really not soon enough.

What I see here is a problem that's going to need to be addressed at the next round of collective bargaining.  The Super Two rule was clearly put into effect in order to get more players to the arbitration earlier in their careers.  But one has to question at this point whether it is having that effect.  More and more teams delay the arrival of top prospects in order to get an extra four months of cheap labor.  Sure, the Cubs, who constantly throw money at their problems, can afford to promote Starlin Castro in May.  And the Rangers, seeing a division title very much in their grasps, are willing to bring Justin Smoak to the majors in April, future costs be damned.  In recent memory, however, there are a number of instances when a late promotion damaged a team's shot at contention.

For instance...

Fantastic Questions: "How committed are you to Tommy Hanson?"

We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up.  Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary.  As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...


How much are you willing to pay for Tommy Hanson?

Hanson's roto line last year was pretty impressive:

11 W, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 116 K, 128 IP

Naturally, following those rookie numbers, he's high on a lot of draft boards and can no longer be considered a "sleeper" by anybody's standards.  I've seen Hanson going for as much a $25 and even in BLOGZKRIEG!, a league filled with "experts" who are generally tentative about paying big buck for starting pitchers, he went for $19, which was the same price as Chris Carpenter.

Before you go reaching for Hanson in front of guys like Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, and Chad Billingsley, let me show you another couple of exceptional rookie lines:

2005 - 8 W, 1.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 58 K, 85 IP
2006 - 11 W, 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 105 K, 123 IP

Both of these pitchers, like Hanson, had incredible minor-league pedigrees and, like Hanson, they entered the majors before the turned 23.  So, who are they?  Tim Lincecum?  Felix Hernandez?  Cliff Lee?

No.

Those numbers belong to Zack Duke and Jered Weaver.  While both Duke and Weaver have matured into solid major-league pitchers and even fantasy-worthy targets, neither has yet posted a season worthy of a $20 bid or a pick in the top twelve rounds.  In fact, both of them had their best seasons in 2009, which looked like this:

Weaver - 16 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 174 K, 211 IP
Duke - 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 106 K, 213 IP

I'm not saying that it isn't possible that Hanson immediately jumps into the top tier of National League pitchers.  Certainly, there are guys like Lincecum and Dwight Gooden who have made that leap.  However, there are many, many more pitchers who have gone in the other direction during their sophomore campaign.  Very recent examples include David Price, Justin Verlander, and Edinson Volquez.  Unless you're playing in a keeper league (and, even then, I'd be tentative) please consider letting somebody else have Hanson and instead take a long look at these pitchers, who have just as much upside, more big-league experience, and will probably be available for about half the price (or less).

Brett Anderson (Athletics)
Chad Billingsley (Dodgers)
Clay Buchholz (Red Sox)
Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
Johnny Cueto (Reds)
John Danks (White Sox)
Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies)
Gavin Floyd (White Sox)
Matt Garza (Rays)
David Price (Rays)
Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
Ervin Santana (Angels)
Jered Weaver (Angels)

Offseason Prospectus #26: The Atlanta Braves

I've got very little love for the Atlanta Braves.  I'll never be able to get past the abusive relationship they had with the early-'90s Pirates.  They are a team from the Deep South who didn't have the good sense not to employ an unabashedly racist reliever (John Rocker).  And, let's face it, the face of their franchise, Chipper Jones, falls somewhere between REO Speedwagon and offal on the likability scale.

That said, if this is in fact Bobby Cox's final season at the helm, I wouldn't be totally disappointed if the Braves made a somewhat unexpected playoff run on his behalf, with the caveat that it must end with the opposition beating them with a walkoff single by a backup infielder in Game 7 of the NLCS.

The Braves have positioned themselves to contend, if not for the AL East title, at least for the Wild Card.  It's hard to believe, but it's actually been four years since Atlanta finished even as higher than third place.  Granted, this stretch was preceded by fourteen consecutive division titles, so I don't feel terribly sorry for them, but it would befit Cox to go out on a high note.

Atlanta has a deep rotation, a solid retrofitted bullpen, and, assuming Jones and Troy Glaus stay healthy, just enough offense to be dangerous.

BBA Awards Ballot: Rookie of the Year (NL)

The BBA Manager of the Year Awards were today. Check it out. And, thanks to some abbreviated Division Series, there is no baseball for a couple of days, so it's as good a time as any to post my thoughts on the NL Rookie of the Year. Several of the major media outlets, particularly ESPN, have been resoundingly supporting Chris Coghlan, who is a legitimate contender, and, moreover, have been creating the impression that there are only three good candidates: Coghlan, J.A. Happ, and Tommy Hanson. These are certainly three reasonable choices, but they are hardly the only ones. One should not treat ROY voting like MVP voting. There shouldn't be any bonus based on team performance. Coghlan, Happ, and Hanson played on winning franchises and that seems to be the only thing significantly separating them from another set of reasonable choices, including Garrett Jones, Casey McGehee, and Randy Wells.

First off, here are some statistics for the three primary hitting and pitching candidates (apologies for the crappy formatting):

STARTERS: Record ERA GS IP K/9 WHIP OOPS WAR
Tommy Hanson 11-4 2.89 21 128 8.18 1.18 660 2.6
J.A. Happ 10-4 2.99 23 144 6.36 1.26 735 1.8
Randy Wells 12-10 3.05 27 165 5.66 1.28 680 3.0

HITTERS: AVG OPS AB HR RBI SB RC/27 WAR
Chris Coglan .321 850 504 9 47 8 6.97 2.4
Garrett Jones .293 938 314 21 44 10 7.56 2.6
Casey McGehee .301 859 355 16 66 0 5.99 2.1
Andrew McCutchen .286 836 433 12 54 22 6.64 3.4

WAR or Wins Abover Replacement is a stat I will be leaning heavily on (although not exclusively) in my discussion of MVP, Cy Young, etc. because it takes into consideration defense, ballpark, run support, level of competition, and position scarcity.

3. Randy Wells - Chicago Cubs

Wells didn't get as much press as Happ and Hanson, but as you can see, he won just as many games and was very much their equal as a pitcher. He also got the most starts and threw the most innings (as a starter) of the trio, and led the way in WAR. Wells made 18 quality starts this season (66.7%) for the Cubs, but took a loss or a no decision in 7 of them. Perhaps more tragically, his teammates never bailed him out. He was 0-7 in starts that he allowed four or five earned runs (impressively, he never allowed more than five). Happ, on the other hand, made fourteen quality starts (60.9%) and lost only two of them. Three times he went less than six innings and still secured a win. He allowed four or more runs on five occasions and lost only two of them.

I don't mean to imply that Happ wasn't great this season and doesn't deserve serious consideration for Rookie of the Year, but I think Randy Wells was minutely better and got very little attention because his record was depressed by the sad status of his team.

2. Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves

He allowed three homers and six earned runs in his first start. After that he never allowed more than one homer and four earned runs in any of his next twenty starts. Over the course of that stretch he had an ERA of 2.59. The Braves only allowed him the throw more than 105 pitches on two occasions and yet he consistently pitched deep into ballgames (57.1 QS%) while striking out hitters in bunches (nine starts with more strikeouts than innings pitched).

Hanson stabilized the Braves rotation and was a critical factor in their late-season run (6-2, 2.56 ERA in August and September). It is possible that I'm giving him a bit of a boost because his potential is so much higher than either Wells or Happ, but the fact is, he matched or surpassed most of their numbers with less opportunities.

1. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates

This makes me at least the second BBA member to support McCutchen (see the other ballot). And, like him, I may be swayed by the fact that I watched McCutchen play as much or more than any other rookie in 2009. That said, his WAR indicates that it isn't a purely subjective opinion. McCutchen put up very good offensive totals in a putrid lineup (30th in MLB!!!) and played solid defense in center field (10 A, 2 E, -0.8 UZR [I expect this will go up significantly in his first full season]). Like most rookies, he was a bit streaky. After hitting .330 with 18 RBI in his first twenty games, the league adjusted to him a bit and he went .240 with 5 RBI in his next twenty. The good news for Pirates fans is that McCutchen also demonstrated the ability to make adjustments and he finished the season on an absolute tear, hitting .354 with 17 R, 6 SB, 9 XBH, and a 962 OPS in his final 21 games.

I certainly wouldn't blame anybody for voting for Coghlan, but, like Hanson, McCutchen really exudes that unquantifiable "entertainment factor" (i.e. 4-for-6, 4 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI on 8/1 or 1-for-3, 3 R, 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB on 8/11), You are willing to watch Pirates games just to see what he does, which is lucky for Pittsburgh, because reinforcements do not appear to be on their way.

AL ROY (If I were so inclined): 3. Brett Anderson, 2. Andrew Bailey, 1. Elvis Andrus

The Next Generation (Part Two)

In my last post I made some glowing comments about Justin Upton, all of which I stand by. But one of the things which sets Upton apart from his peers had nothing to do with his talent. He is, by my measure, perhaps the last premier prospect to be called up for good before his was ready. At the beginning of August in 2007, when he was still just 19, Upton was promoted by the Diamondbacks directly from AA after only about a year and a half of minor league service. Upton showed flashes of brilliance from the start, going 7 for his first 17 with five extra-base hits. But he also struck out a lot and was prone to extended slumps. As recently as this April, many speculated that he'd been promoted too soon (see the post "Down on the Upton" from 4/8/09). Arizona jumped the gun because they were in the thick of a pennant race with the Rockies and Dodgers, Carlos Quentin had been something of a bust (647 OPS in 81 games), and they didn't feel comfortable with a platoon of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon down the stretch (understandably).

Few teams have been willing to resort to such measures in recent years. Last season the Rays refused to bring up David Price until the rosters expanded in September, despite the fact they were in the thick of a three-team race with the Red Sox and Yankees. The Brewers, chasing their first postseason appearance in two decades, resisted the temptation to bring up Mat Gamel, even though their third basemen had combined for the worst average in the National League. The Cardinals, still in the thick of the race, refused to turn to Colby Rasmus whe Rick Ankiel got hurt.

In situations like these we have become accustomed to the phrase "reluctant to start the clock," a reference to the fact that as soon as a team puts a premier prospect on their MLB roster, they begin the countdown to arbitration and free agency. The case of Evan Longoria is now infamous. He signed a six-year deal last May, while still in the minor leagues, was promoted the next day and promptly won the Rookie of the Year and carried the Rays to the World Series. He'll earn about as much over the next five seasons as Ryan Howard makes this year, despite being arguably a more valuable commodity, because the Rays were fastidious in protecting themselves from future arbitration hearings.

Many expect similar contracts to be handed out to this year's round of "clock-starters," Matt Wieters and David Price being the most notable among them, both being recalled, predictably, around a third of the way into the season. They will be joined (or already have been) by Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson, all of whom probably deserved to begin the year in a big-league clubhouse. Here are some potential call-ups to watch:

Andrew McCutchen - CF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The bad news is that if your team is the Pirates there is very little motivation for them to bring up a McCutchen, a Steven Pearce, or a Pedro Alvarez, other than provide a little shred of hope for long-suffering fans and, as such, they will probably hold off as long as reasonably possible. McCutchen is making it hard on them at least. He's hitting .395 in his last ten AAA games for Indianapolis, and is showing speed (10 SB) and power (.500 SLG) so far this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's left-fielders have combined for a 685 OPS (13th in the NL) and the right-fielders aren't much better (732, 11th).

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansan City Royals

Another situation to watch is in Kansas City. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler have been mediocre at 1B and DH. Meanwhile, Kila Ka'aihue appears to be preparing to follow up on his monster 2008 season (.314, 37 HR, 1085 OPS). After a slow start he's built his numbers up quickly (.275, 8 HR, 956 OPS). He's a better defensive option than Jacobs or Butler, as well. The Royals desperately need offense if they are going to stay in the hunt for the AL Central. They are 12th in the AL in scoring.

Tommy Hanson - SP - Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson has a 1.49 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 90 K in 66 IP at AAA. That's sufficiently dominant, I would say. The Braves starters have been very solid (3.93 ERA), but Kensin Kawakami and Kris Medlen have to feel the fire on the back of their neck with each start.

Vin Mazarro - SP - Oakland Athletics

The A's can't hit (last in AL in runs) and they haven't pitched very well either (8th in ERA), so they don't have a lot to gain from loading their rotation with young talent. But that seems to be what Billy Beane is doing, anyway. He's already riding 21-year-olds Brett Anderson (2-5, 5.70) and Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33). Today he announced that they'll be adding the 22-year-old Mazzaro to the mix. Mazzaro has earned it. He's got a 2.38 ERA in nine starts at AAA. Expect that this is the makings of Oakland's next "Big Three," but it may not happen in 2009.

Other Prospects to Watch: Bud Norris, SP (Astros), Neftali Feliz, SP (Rangers), Fernando Martinez, OF (Mets), Justin Smoak, 1B (Rangers), Sean Rodriguez, 2B (Angels), Adrian Cardenas, 2B (Athletics)