Fantastic Thoughts: "A-Rod's fantasy owners regret 'Juiced Ball Era,' admit culpability, and promise to 'move forward' with 'that kid from Vanderbilt.'" (Third Base Preview)

1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. Evan Longoria (Rays)
3. Pablo Sandoval (Giants) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
5. David Wright (Mets)

I was reading Athlon Sports fantasy preview the other day and was deeply surprise to find that they ranked A-Rod 26th overall and fourth among third-basemen.  Although I would agree that A-Rod is no longer a consensus #1 pick, as he has been for most of the last decade, I think passing on him in favor of guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, and Mark Texeira might be a premature estimation of his demise.  Do you think Mark Texeira would even draft himself in front of the guy who protects him in the order?!?  I doubt it.

That said, it's pretty easy to see the top five here as interchangeable.  Each of them offers a modest risk.  A-Rod has that amazing "self-healing" hip thing.  David Wright plays his home games on a Par 5.  Kung Fu Panda and Z-Pack have yet to prove they can produce at an elite level two years in a row.  And, Evan Longoria, well, actually, I'm having a hard time finding the chink in Longoria's armor.

6. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 1B]
7. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
8. Mark Reynolds (D-Backs) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
9. Chone Figgins (Mariners)

Get while the getting is good, because after these top two tiers, the position gets really shallow really fast.  Believe me, you don't want to get stuck with Jorge Cantu as one of your top corner infield options.

One could probably argue that Youkilis and Ramirez belong in the top tier and I'd be perfectly satisfied drafting either of them, but they are also both coming off injury shortened campaigns, which is why I rated them slightly lower.  Reynolds and Figgins are elite one-category producers (for Reynolds it's power, for Figgins it's speed), who offer solid production in other areas as well.  Reynolds can be a bit of a drag on your batting average in a roto league and in points leagues that register deductions for strikeouts, but he is also one of the game's few 30/30 threats.

10. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)
11. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [also eligible at SS]
12. Michael Young (Rangers)
13. Jorge Cantu (Marlins) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
14. Chipper Jones (Braves)

Some will be mighty surprised that Chipper doesn't even make my top ten, and I am in no way denying his ability to provide excellent production...when he's on the field.  But in this year particularly, when there are not a lot of quality three-baggers available late in the draft or on the waiver wire, I'm not comfortable having a #1 guy who's guaranteed to spend at least a couple weeks on the DL, and maybe much more.  Chipper has made as many as 140 starts since 2003.  I love the risk/reward ration if you can get him as a backup/utility option, but not as a #1.

I'm probably unusually high on Beltre.  His recent seasons certainly haven't been superior to many of the guys I've ranked below him, but I like the fact that he's moving away from the spacious Safeco Field and into a lineup which will provide him with a lot more run-producing opportunities.  This could be the year he finally has another 30 HR, 100 RBI season.

15. Alex Gordon (Royals)
16. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [will be eligible at 2B early in the season]
17. Andy LaRoche (Pirates)
18. Jake Fox (Athletics)

Grasping at straws!  So soon!  There are a full four tiers of risky young players in this preview, because several teams don't have clear starters and may even be flirting with platoons (otherwise known as "fantasy kryptonite").  These are the youngsters I'm highest on, each of whom is likely to have a full-time gig...if they stay healthy and play well.