Offseason Prospectus #27: The St. Louis Cardinals

If you want to know how crazy innovative Tony La Russa really is, check out this article from the Riverfront Times in 2004.  Like any steadfast progressive, La Russa has laid a few eccentric eggs.  But, that said, it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against his case for greatest manager of all time.  MLB Network's "Prime 9" ranked him at #4, behind Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy, and John McGraw.  But, of those three, only Stengel managed after integration (most of my readers know, I don't dignify much that happened prior to 1947), none of them managed during the free agent era, and all of them had the luxury of managing the most profitable and talent-laden franchise in the league for the bulk of their careers (the Yankees for McCarthy and Stengel, the New York Giants for McGraw).

La Russa has certainly had his fair share of talent, having managed Pujols, Rickey Henderson, Dave Parker, Eckersley, McGwire, Canseco, etc., but he's also guided his share of overachieving franchises, most notably the '06 Champs.  The Cardinals, which La Russa has managed since 1996 certainly aren't the stingiest team in the league, but they've never had a payroll over $100 Million (according to Cot's Contracts). In fourteen seasons under La Russa, they've made eight playoff appearance and have only three losing campaigns.  La Russa currently trails only Joe Torre and Bobby Cox in playoff appearances, and, of course, we know each of them to have been blessed with significantly larger budgets.

La Russa, alongside the other greats of his generation (especially Torre and Cox) has succeeded by being a "players manager."  Former players like Eckersley and McGwire speak of him in reverential tones.  And, of course, he and longtime pitching coach, Dave Duncan, are responsible for a long list of pitching Renaissances, including Eckersley, Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Tom Seaver, Joel Pineiro, Jeff Suppan, Mike Moore, and the late, great Daryl Kile, to name just a few.  Many also credit La Russa and Duncan with revolutionizing the use of situational relievers, especially the LOOGY.

His most recent attack on conventional wisdom, moving the pitcher into the eighth spot in the lineup, hasn't caught on particularly quickly.  Ned Yost picked it up in Milwaukee, briefly, in 2008.  Shortly thereafter, he got fired.  I haven't seen a whole lot of material evidence for or against the move, but I appreciate the logic, separating the "easy out" from the statistical haymaker known as Albert Pujols.

I could go on, but for now I will simply recommend Buzz Bissinger's lovely book, Three Nights in August, and add that La Russa's case could get dramatically better with another championship.  He would join Torre and Sparky Anderson as the only men in the free agents era with more than two, and Torre as the only man in the free agent era with six or more pennants.

In '09 I expected the Cardinals to make a deep playoff run.  It didn't happen, but all the pieces which inspired that prediction are still in place.  St. Louis has a lethal one-two punch at the top of the rotation, serious thunder in the middle of the order,  a fairly deep bullpen, and a nice infusion of youth.  My only hesitancy, one expressed frequently in these pages, is fueled by their lack of depth.  Prince Albert has proven himself nigh invincible, but the same cannot be said of many of the other Cardinal regulars.  If John Mozeliak doesn't make a few more "inventory" moves in the coming months, La Russa and his staff will need to invest in every rabbit's foot, dreamcatcher, and four-leaf clover they can get their hands on.

The Stream (Week Seven)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

All the rainouts this past week could effect the projected rotations in the days to come, but here's how I'm forecasting:

MON: Randy Wolf (LAD) v. New York Mets (Tim Redding)

One of the Nats top prospects, Ross Detwiler, is coming up to make a spot start against the lowly Pirates, but I've definitely got more faith in Randy Wolf, even though he faces a pretty hot offense. Wolf hasn't allowed more than one earned run in each of his last four starts and he's got a 2.60 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season. Plus, while Detwiler faces somebody who's been pitching well so far this season (though I don't trust him), Ross Ohlendorf, Wolf squares off with Tim Redding in his first start coming off injury. Unless he's had a total arm transfusion, I don't think we can expect very much from Redding.

TUE: Barry Zito (SFG) @ San Diego Padres (Chris Young)

I may live to regret this, but I'm going to jump back on the bandwagon now that Zito has made five straight quality starts. It helps that San Diego's home OPS is 683, easily the worst in the NL, so even if Young outpitches Zito, I doubt he'll disastrously effect my WHIP and ERA. Shairon Martis pitches at home against Pittsburgh. That would be my #2 option.

WED: Paul Maholm (PIT) @ Washington Nationals (John Lannan)

There are several good pitchers on Wednesday, but not a lot of good matchups. Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Cecil, and Matt Harrison are all pitching well, but Way-Rod is matched up with Yovani Gallardo, Harrison gets super-hot Justin Verlander in Detroit, and Cecil is a rookie lefthander pitching at Fenway for the first time. Therefore, I'm going with Mr. Maholm against the Nats. I should point out that the Nats have a pretty good offense, comparable to the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, and Cardinals thusfar, and John Lannan has a respectable 4.00 ERA, so this is not exactly a slam dunk pick. (If he is available in your league, you might note that Chris Carpenter is coming off the D.L. against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. It's risky, obviously, because he might be rusty and the Cubs are very hot right now, but worth noting.)

THU: Bartolo Colon (CWS) v. Minnesota Twins (Nick Blackburn)

Big Fat Bartolo Colon is having himself a respectable season so far, especially in Chicago. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at Cellular Field. He blanked the Twins for six innings the first time he faced them, though their offense has improved since then with the return of Joe Mauer and hot streaks from Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede.

FRI: Rich Hill (BAL) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

In intraleague matchups it's usually preferable to have the AL player pitching in NL park. Although I don't know that this qualifies, since Rich Hill has made exactly one start in the AL. He looked pretty good in it, beating Kansas City, so I'm willing to take a flyer on him. (Neither is available in my league [partly because I own one of them full-time], but Rick Porcello faces off with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. Both are young studs in the midst of hot streaks. Porcello has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts, while Ubaldo has allowed only six earned over his last four starts. These guys are still available in many shallow leagues.)

SAT: Kyle Lohse (STL) v. Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)

This is another tough one. Armando Galarraga is at home against the Rockies, but although he started the year very well, he's pitched in four straight disasters and may be in danger of losing he spot in the rotation when Jeremy Bonderman returns. I'm moderately fond of both Koji Uehara and Shairon Martis, but they match up against each other, which probably favors Uehara, but only slightly. Instead, I'm going to roll the dice on Kyle Lohse, who's had two straight disasters against strong offenses on the road, but is a solid 3-1, with a 3.20 ERA at home.

SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) v. Texas Rangers (Brandon McCarthy)

I'm tempted to go with Joel Pineiro, who, like Lohse, has been very good at home (2.46 ERA). There are arguments for both Randy Wolf, agains, and Matt Palmer (4-0, 3.38), who square off against each other in L.A., as well as for Dave Bush (2-0, 3.83) in Minnesota. But I'm going to gamble again on Wandy Rodriguez (4-2, 1.90), who probably shouldn't even be available (and may not be by Sunday). I'm hoping that his 0.67 ERA at home outweighs the fact that he will be facing one of the league's hottest teams. However, if I have a relatively safe lead on Saturday night, I don't make this start.

Swimming Upstream [How did last week's choice's fare?]

MON: Bronson Arroyo (7 IP, W, 6.43/1.43, 5 K)

TUE: Manny Parra (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 8 K)

WED: Brian Bannister (5.2 IP, L, 3.18/1.06, 3 K)

THU: Wandy Rodriguez (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 11 K)

FRI: Brett Cecil (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 3 K)

SAT: Brett Myers (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 8 K)

SUN: Koji Uehara (5 IP, ND, 7.20/1.60, 3 K)

Week 6 Totals: 5-1, 43 2/3 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 41 K

This is about as good as you get via streaming. If you were in a good position and refrained from using Uehara on Sunday, it's even better. Something tells me that Way-Rod, Cecil, Parra, and Myers may not be a part of the free agent player pool for a whole lot longer.

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.