Cardinals Offer To Pujols Is Borderline Insulting

ESPN is reporting that Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals will not reach an agreement to extend Pujol's contract before the self-imposed deadline this afternoon.  Assuming these reports are accurate and that Pujols remains firm in his stated refusal to negotiate during the season, this makes it a near certainty that the best player in the game will become a free agent.

ESPN does not report what exact offers the Cardinals made, but does speculate that they met Pujols demands for length (presumably between 8 and 10 years), but not for annual value.  A "source close to the negotiations" claims, "The Cardinal's offer would place Pujols in baseball's top 10 in salary, but not in the top five in average annual value."  For the record, assuming this "top 10" only includes active players, that means the Cardinals offer had an average annual value of somewhere between $19.5 Milllion and $24.9 Million (based on salary stats at Cot's Contracts).

Pujols and his agent are perfectly justified in turning down such an offer, would even be justified in characterizing it as something of an insult.  According to FanGraphs calculations, Pujols has been worth more than $25 Million in each of his last six seasons and seven out of his last eight.  In most cases, worth significantly more, peaking at $41.7 Million in 2008.  But you don't need any such metric to recognize that Pujols is worth substantially more than Ryan Howard ($25 Mil./yr.), Mark Teixeira ($22.5 Mil./yr.), and even Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 Mil./yr.).

The Cardinals are pressuring Pujols to give them a "hometown discount," which is fine, except that he gave them a massive hometown discount with his last contract.  I'm not quite clear on why St. Louis believes that it is their right to pay arguably the best player in the history of the game less than his market value for the entirety of his career.  Tony LaRussa thinks Pujols is being pressured by the MLBPA.  Tony LaRussa should definitely keep his mouth shut.  But he may be right.  The Union will look weak if the best player in their fold fails to bring home a contract worth at least $250 Million.

The Cardinals need to wake up.  The offer they have on the table is clearly unreasonable in an open market.  Certainly, they can justify deciding that for a team with their budget, $250 Million just isn't an option.  Maybe they are worried about the fact that Pujols would almost certainly have entered into a moderate decline by the end of the deal.  Fine.  End the negotions.  Start bracing yourself for the fact that the Red Sox, Angels, Giants, and Cubs could drive the bidding into the $300 Million range next winter.  But don't pretend like you're negotiating in good faith and paint your franchise icon as greedy just because you're unwilling to pay a competitive price.

R.I.P. 2010 Cardinals?

In one of the first crucial series of September, the Rockies pulled off a four-game sweep over the Reds, who were the top team in the NL when the week began.  Cincinnati's five-game losing streak could have breathed new life into the second-place Cardinals, had they managed to capitalize on their softer schedule, but they managed to lose two out of three against the Brewers, and with 23 games remaining, the Reds magic number is 19, lowest in the National League, and the Cardinals have slid to 5.5 games (and, perhaps more importantly, three teams) back in the Wild Card.

This is not an insurmountable margin, certainly, and the Redbirds got off to a good start in their weekend series against the Wild Card leaders, the Braves, who have also scuffled lately.  But with San Francisco and Colorado playing well, the race for playoff berths has become a jumbled one and it is difficult to see a scenario where at least three of the six NL clubs who are ahead of St. Louis go into the tank.  Also, sad as it is for me to say, it is hard for me to see this club as capable of mounting the late-season blitzkrieg necessary to overcome that margin.  On May 3rd the Cardinals beat the Phillies to move to 18-8 and secure there largest lead of the season, five games.  Since then, they are 55-57, a thoroughly mediocre team, and in recent weeks they've been even worst, winning only five of their last fifteen contests, including series losses to Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee.  When you can't beat those teams in September, it's time to throw in the towel and start talking about what went wrong.

In March I believed it would be the Brewers who won the NL Central.  In retrospect, it was one of my sillier predictions of the preseason.  I did contend, however, that the Reds "could become a version of the '08 Rays" and, most presciently, I was compelled to predict that St. Louis would suffer from their apparent lack of depth.  "Playing without a parachute at several positions" was perhaps the most succinct description of the Cardinals flaws.

What has happened has been, in fact, rather more egregious than I would have expected.  The Cardinals key quartet - Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia - are all in the running for their league's highest individual honors, yet even they could not carry the lead balloon which is the remainder of the St. Louis roster.  The front three in the Cardinals starting rotation have won 45 games.  Nobody else on the St. Louis roster has won more than six.  And, to the even greater humiliation of the remaining roster, that six-game winner is the Cardinals closer, Ryan Franklin.

On offense, St. Louis faces a similar problem.  In limited playing time, Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, and David Freese have all been respectable, but the rest of the Cardinals roster is filled with players with sub-700 OPSs.  Second-baseman, Skip Schumaker (672 OPS), and catcher, Yadier Molina (655 OPS), have been disappointing, but not nearly so much as the rotating cast of career minor-leaguers, defensive replacements, and other team's crumbs who have manned the left side of the Cardinal infield.  Following a season-ending injury to Freese, the Cardinals handed third to veteran utility-man Felipe Lopez (638 OPS).  When he failed, they picked up Astros castaway Pedro Feliz (528).  The result: since May 30th, the Cardinals have gotten one, that's right, one lonely homer from the hot corner.  That actually looks fairly good compared to what they've gotten from Brendan Ryan (563 OPS), the St. Louis shortstop who holds the dubious honor of being the least productive player in the National League.  Out of the 91 players who have been handed 400+ plate appearance so far in 2010, he ranks dead last in Hits, OPS, OBP, and SLG.  He's 90th in batting average, 89th in RBI, and 87th in Runs and HR.

To sum things up, here's a look at the production the Cardinals get from 1B (a.k.a. Albert Pujols) compared to what they get combined from 3B & SS.

Albert Pujols: .311/.403/.590, 137 G, 522 AB, 99 R, 162 H, 36 HR, 102 RBI, 83 BB, 65 K
3B & SS: .241/.309/.334, 274 G, 1011 AB, 122 R, 246 H, 13 HR, 98 RBI, 91 BB, 189 K

In the second half things have gotten even worse for their offense. Since the All-Star Break, only Pujols and Holliday have more than 20 RBI.  Only Pujols and Holliday have hit more than 3 HR.  Only Pujols, Holliday, and Randy Winn have managed to keep their OPS above 780.  It's not hard to imagine how opposing managers might strategize.  Since the break, eleven of Prince Albert's sixteen homers are solo shots.  Seven of Holliday nine have come with either the bases empty or just Albert standing at first base.    Unsurprisingly, the rank first and second on the team in free passes.  Clearly, opposing teams are not pitching to the dynamic duo in situation where they can put a game out of reach.

Sadly, the Cardinals now face a scenario not unlike that which derailed the once-promising Cubs, just over a year ago.  Having won the division in '09, the Cards were heavily favored to win it again in 2010.  Most believed that this was a team designed to go deep in October.  At the Inside Pulse roundtable in March, I was the only one of six contributers who didn't pick them to win the division.  This was supposed to be "their year."  But their season was not derailed by particularly bad luck.  They did not have a rash of key injuries.  In the form of Jaime Garcia and Jon Jay, in fact, they even had a couple of pleasant surprises.

Basically, this team isn't good enough as it's currently constituted.  With a payroll approaching $95 Million, that's a problem.  John Mozeliak has some tough negotiations in his future.  At the end of the season, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will once again be free agents.  They've had an amazing tenure in St. Louis, but in recent years have had some vocal disputes with the front office.  This offseason there will be openings in L.A., Chicago, and Atlanta, maybe elsewhere.  Could they be persuaded to take on a new challenge?

In truth, piloting the Dodgers may be less challenging than nursing this Cardinals roster.  If the Cardinals had gone to the World Series this year, as many expected, I think it is safe to say LaRussa and Pujols would have both taken extensions this offseason.  But the failure to qualify for the playoffs and the uncertainty regarding LaRussa's tenure may convince Albert that he needs to test the free agent market in the offseason of 2011.  For St. Louis fans, that's a nightmare akin to Lebron's exodus, and it would almost certainly precipitate the departure of Yadier Molina and Chris Carpenter when their contracts expire the following year.  The window is closing on this incarnation of Cardinals.  In an effort to pry it open for a few more years, Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt are going to need to be willing to resort to drastic measure this offseason.

Offseason Prospectus #27: The St. Louis Cardinals

If you want to know how crazy innovative Tony La Russa really is, check out this article from the Riverfront Times in 2004.  Like any steadfast progressive, La Russa has laid a few eccentric eggs.  But, that said, it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against his case for greatest manager of all time.  MLB Network's "Prime 9" ranked him at #4, behind Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy, and John McGraw.  But, of those three, only Stengel managed after integration (most of my readers know, I don't dignify much that happened prior to 1947), none of them managed during the free agent era, and all of them had the luxury of managing the most profitable and talent-laden franchise in the league for the bulk of their careers (the Yankees for McCarthy and Stengel, the New York Giants for McGraw).

La Russa has certainly had his fair share of talent, having managed Pujols, Rickey Henderson, Dave Parker, Eckersley, McGwire, Canseco, etc., but he's also guided his share of overachieving franchises, most notably the '06 Champs.  The Cardinals, which La Russa has managed since 1996 certainly aren't the stingiest team in the league, but they've never had a payroll over $100 Million (according to Cot's Contracts). In fourteen seasons under La Russa, they've made eight playoff appearance and have only three losing campaigns.  La Russa currently trails only Joe Torre and Bobby Cox in playoff appearances, and, of course, we know each of them to have been blessed with significantly larger budgets.

La Russa, alongside the other greats of his generation (especially Torre and Cox) has succeeded by being a "players manager."  Former players like Eckersley and McGwire speak of him in reverential tones.  And, of course, he and longtime pitching coach, Dave Duncan, are responsible for a long list of pitching Renaissances, including Eckersley, Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Tom Seaver, Joel Pineiro, Jeff Suppan, Mike Moore, and the late, great Daryl Kile, to name just a few.  Many also credit La Russa and Duncan with revolutionizing the use of situational relievers, especially the LOOGY.

His most recent attack on conventional wisdom, moving the pitcher into the eighth spot in the lineup, hasn't caught on particularly quickly.  Ned Yost picked it up in Milwaukee, briefly, in 2008.  Shortly thereafter, he got fired.  I haven't seen a whole lot of material evidence for or against the move, but I appreciate the logic, separating the "easy out" from the statistical haymaker known as Albert Pujols.

I could go on, but for now I will simply recommend Buzz Bissinger's lovely book, Three Nights in August, and add that La Russa's case could get dramatically better with another championship.  He would join Torre and Sparky Anderson as the only men in the free agents era with more than two, and Torre as the only man in the free agent era with six or more pennants.

In '09 I expected the Cardinals to make a deep playoff run.  It didn't happen, but all the pieces which inspired that prediction are still in place.  St. Louis has a lethal one-two punch at the top of the rotation, serious thunder in the middle of the order,  a fairly deep bullpen, and a nice infusion of youth.  My only hesitancy, one expressed frequently in these pages, is fueled by their lack of depth.  Prince Albert has proven himself nigh invincible, but the same cannot be said of many of the other Cardinal regulars.  If John Mozeliak doesn't make a few more "inventory" moves in the coming months, La Russa and his staff will need to invest in every rabbit's foot, dreamcatcher, and four-leaf clover they can get their hands on.

The Sweet Lou Bullpen Program

This week I'd like to highlight a relatively new strategical development in Major League Baseball.  Manager and general managers have realized that the "closer mentality" doesn't have to be limited to the 9th inning.  More and more teams have, especially competitive teams, have added a set-up man who is as dominant, if not more dominant, than their stopper.  

At one point, of course, every pitcher who put on a uniform considered himself a starter.  He only reconciled himself to a life of bullpen work once it had been proven that he was ineffective when overexposed.  And even then, he longed for the opportunity to get himself back in the rotation.  Then, along came Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, and Dennis Eckersley, and closing down games appeared to be a more unlikely, but still a potential path to baseball immortality, especially for players with only one or two quality pitches, instead of three or four.  Still, however, there was only room in the bullpen for one star.  The other guys, they were just mop-up men, the unfortunate, but necessary risks which must be taken when the starter fails to turn the ball over directly to the closer. 

In recent years, the logic of relievers is changing yet again.  Partially, of course, because pitch-count limitations and improved patience from hitters is making it more difficult for even the best starters to consistently get past six or seven innings.  It took some time, but managers and general managers have reacted by finding ways to "shorten the game" with two or three outstanding relievers.  Lou Pinella has been at the forefront of this development.  In 1990, he won a World Series largely on the backs of the "Nasty Boys," a closer-by-committee trio composed of Norm Charlton (50 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2 SV, 57 K), Rob Dibble (98 IP, 1.74 ERA, 11 SV, 136 K), and Randy Myers (87 IP, 2.08 ERA, 31 SV, 98 K).  Two lefties and one right-handed who could be employed in any late inning and in any order.  In 2001, when Seattle tied an MLB record for wins, Pinella adapted to more defined bullpen roles, but again depended on a combination of strong relievers, two left-handed and two right-handed: Norm Charlton (48 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1 SV, 48 K), Jeff Nelson (65 IP, 2.76 ERA, 4 SV, 88 K), Arthur Rhodes (68 IP, 1.72 ERA, 3 SV, 83 K), and Kaz Sasaki (67 IP, 3.24 ERA, 45 SV, 62 K).  

This year, Pinella again has the ingredients for his favorite recipe, with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre, and Michael Wuertz in the Cubs bullpen.  And, so far, the Cubs have the best record in baseball.  Most of the best managers - Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, etc. - have adopted Lou's program, and to great success.  LaRussa, arguably the inventor of the hydra-headed bullpen monster depended upon Eckersley and Rick Honeycutt to lead many of his late-'80s, early-'90s Athletics contenders.  Torre moved from Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland to Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, and Mariano Rivera as part of the '90s Yankee Dynasty.  The Angels World Series run in 2002 was dependent upon Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Ben Weber, and Brendan Donnelly.  

The success of the these teams has increased the notoriety of the dominant set-up man.  In 2001, Torre put Paul Quantrill, at the time posting a 2.13 ERA and 7 relief wins on the AL All-Star Team.  Bob Brenly followed suit the following season for the NL, adding Atlanta's Mike Remlinger (50 IP, 2.88, 68 K) among much criticism.  In all but one season since, at least one set-up man has been an All-Star.  Considering that arguably the best closer in history, Lee Smith, is still awaiting induction, it may be a very long time before middle relievers get any consideration for the Hall of Fame.  But, baseball theorist would do well to consider the particular challenges the set-up man faces.  Unlike the starter, for whom the quality start is six innings pitched, three earned runs, and the closer, who is successful so long as he holds onto a lead, the only successful outcome for a middle reliever is to come into the game (often with men on base) and get through the inning, or partial inning, without allowing any runs.  A run is a failure.  The heavy pressure of these situations may explain why managers like Pinella, Eric Wedge, and Jim Leyland have elected to put their most dominant pitchers - Rafael Perez, Joel Zumaya, Carlos Marmol, etc. - in middle relief roles, while handing the closer duties to guys like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones, whose stuff is not nearly as electric.  The closer usually has the advantage of entering the game with nobody on.

It is often observed that very few pitchers are successful in the closer's role over a considerable duration of time.  Only three pitchers have ever registered 30 saves ten times: Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, and Mariano Rivera.  However, even fewer middle reliever succeed over the long haul.  Let's talk about those All-Stars.  Paul Quantrill had a solid seven-year run, of which his All-Star year was arguably the highlight (11-2, 3.04, 83 IP).  During this stretch his was 32-29, with 18 SV and a 2.82 ERA.  However, in 2004 he turned in a sub-par year with Torre's Yankees and was out of baseball by 2006.  Mike Remlinger was a bullpen staple in Atlanta and Chicago for six seasons from '99 to '04, during which he failed to make 70 appearances only once and never had an ERA above 3.65.  His record was an impressive 32-17.  But, like Quantrill, one sub-par season was the end of him.  He retired after '06.  In 2003, Mike Scioscia rewarded Brendan Donnelly with a trip to the All-Star Game.  Donnelly did not make the majors until the age of 30, but was a key part of the Angels bullpen from 2002 to 2006, although his effectiveness continued to dwindle for his final three seasons in Anaheim before he was eventually traded to Boston.  He was effective in the early months of 2007, but had to undergo Tommy John and is now trying to make his way back to the majors in the Indians organization.  Set-up man, Justin Duchscherer, represented Oakland in 2005.  He had three solid seasons as a middle reliever before suffering from nagging injuries last year.  The A's recently converted him to a starter.  As you can see, it is rare for a middle reliever to be effective for an extended period of time.  Often, at least in the past, the best set-up men have not found the right role until late in their careers or, if they do find it early, teams have attempted to convert them either to closers or starters.  However, as managers and GMs become more aware of the necessity of the 7th and 8th inning All-Stars, they will be in less of a hurry to make such alterations, as can be witnessed by Joe Giradi's reluctance to give in to the pressure to make Joba Chamberlain a starter.  Here are half-a-dozen of the best middle-men who we can likely look forward to seeing in that role for several years to come.

6. Tom Gordon - Philadelphia Phillies

This is the twentieth season for forty-year-old Flash Gordon, his twelfth as a reliever.  In his illustrious career he's netted 137 wins, 157 saves, and 117 holds.  Nobody in major league history has accumulated that combination of stats.  And, disregarding the Hold, a stat which didn't come into existence until the 1980s, Gordon joins Eckersley, Lindy McDaniel, Hoyt Wilhelm, and John Smoltz as the only players with 130 wins and 150 saves.  Very impressive company!  And, at 40, Gordon has proved that he's still quite a dominant set-up man.  Since giving up fiver earned runs in a third of an inning in his first appearance, Gordon has recorded one save and nine holds, striking out eighteen hitters in twenty innings, and compiling a 2.21 ERA.  

5. Tony Pena - Arizona Diamondbacks

Pena's future is closely intertwined with that of Brandon Lyon, the D-Backs current closer.  Lyon will be a free agent at the end of this season, while Pena will be under their control for four more seasons.  Lyon will make more than $3,000,000 in 2008 and ask for more if he continues to be successful (12 SV, 1.64 ERA so far!).  Pena will make $405,000 this year and then face arbitration.  If Arizona resigns Lyon, Pena can stay in the role which he has dominated thus far in his career.  He's been in the top ten in the MLB in Holds each of the past two seasons.  Doug Melvin is confident bringing him in any situation.  Leaving aside one bad outing in a game that was already out of reaching, Pena has ten holds and a save this season, to go along with a 2.28 ERA.  

4. Carlos Marmol - Chicago Cubs

In Marmol, Lou Pinella has found the reincarnation of Rob Dibble.  Like Pena, Marmol could eventually find himself closing games, but Pinella prefers the freedom to use him in whichevery late-inning situation requires strikeouts, whether it means bringing him in with men on base or matching him up with the opposition's middle-of-the-order.  Since Chicago turned him into a reliever after a dozen unsuccessful starts in 2006, Marmol has a 1.90 ERA with 161 K in 113 innings.  This year he already has 16 holds and 3 saves, as well as a 1.54 ERA.  Marmol is arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball, regardless of role.  

3. Rafeal Perez - Cleveland Indians

Because he is left-handed and because they have Rafael Betancourt, Masa Kobayashi, Jensen Lewis, and Joe Borowski the Indians will be reluctant to turn him into a closer, so Perez could be among the league-leaders in holds for years and years to come.  Last season he posted a 1.78 ERA and 62 K in 60 innings.  He has held left-handers to a .142 career average (and righties only hit .222).  

2. Hideki Okajima - Boston Red Sox

Okajima shoots toward the top of the list partially because he is buried behind a young closer who is among the most dominant in history, Jonathan Papelbon.  The Red Sox are unlikely to trade him, both because Hideki has been ridiculously effective thus far, and because his presence brings comfort to his very expensive countryman, Dice-K.  Okajima, however, has himself been a key piece of Boston's success the past two seasons.  He went to the All-Star Game in 2007 and finished the year with a 2.22 ERA, 5 SV, 27 HLD, and 63 K in 69 innings.  This year he has again started off on fire.  He's allowed only two earned runs in 24 innings (0.75 ERA).  Boston has a club option for 2009, an option which is, strangely, less expensive than the contracts for his first two seasons.  They'll pick that up in a hurry, one would bet.  At that point, Okajima will be 34-years-old.  If he hasn't shown any signs to slowing down, he could demand one of the largest contracts ever awarded a middle reliever.

1. Scot Shields - Los Angeles Angels

Shields signed a three-year, $15 Million contract before this season which pretty much assured that the 32-year-old would never make his mark as a closer.  He will be among the first players to make a very lucrative career almost entirely out of pitching the eighth inning.  He has racked up 30 or more holds in each of the past three seasons and is easily on pace to do it again this year.  He's got a 2.97 career ERA and 128 holds.  Unless K-Rod goes down with a serious injury, Shields will never have an opportunity to close regularly in Anaheim, even though he undoubtedly has the stuff to do so.  The Angels invested in the hydra-headed bullpen strategy when they signed Shields and Justin Speier to long, lucrative deals, investing nearly $30 Million in their services for the next three seasons.