Opening Statements

The season is but a week old.  It's best not to overreact to half a dozen games.  As things stand, the Royals, Orioles, and Mets are all division leaders.  Something tells me that's not the way things are going to play out.  However, we spend the Hot Stove season pouring over payrolls and depth charts, imagining how Carl Crawford will look fielding a line drive off the Green Monster.  During Spring Training we watch odd melanges of half-assed veterans, anxious invitees, and youngsters playing out of position and hitting against  pitchers who may or may not have permission to throw their curveballs.  So, there really are instances when a team takes the field on Opening Day and you say, "Eureka!"

Nowhere was that response more pervasive than in Arlington this past weekend.  Certainly, I expected the defending American League Champions to be contenders again, but watching the Rangers club their way past the prohibitive AL favorites (Red Sox) I was reminded that last year's team may have only scratched the surface of its potential.  The Rangers have 30 extra-base hits in five games.  A significant portion of that damage has been done by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, two of the more injury-prone players in recent history, so there is a high likelihood that the Texas lineup will not be able to maintain its current depth for 162.  Nevertheless, every reporter who overhyped the Michael Young fiasco, bemoaned the departure of Cliff Lee, criticized the Adrian Beltre contract, or in any way contributed to the general impression that the 2010 Rangers were a fluke did his own team a considerable disservice.  Last season, the Rangers were dogged by controversy throughout the offseason and Ron Washington used it to spur them to an unprecedented performance.  It might've been difficult for them to re-harness that energy were they treated as the AL's foremost powerhouse.  But they weren't.  And after another offseason filled with criticism and second-guessing the Rangers are again playing with a chip on their shoulders.  They reminded us that even if they aren't the best team in the American League, they are at least in the conversation.

A similar situation has developed in Cincinnati.  The Reds dominated their division in 2010.  And, like the Rangers, their team has youth, depth, and payroll certainty, making it very likely that their best years are still ahead of them.  For some reason, however, punditry has favored the Cardinals this preseason, despite the fact that they lost their Ace and did very little to improve the problems which caused them to fall back of the Reds last year.  It pains me to say it, but the Cardinals just aren't a very well-constructed baseball team right now.  The real threat to a Cincinnati repeat in the NL Central is the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Reds made the first statement in a season-long battle by sweeping the Brewers on Opening Weekend.  Their underrated workhorse, Bronson Arroyo, the "Mark Buehrle of the National League," shrugged off his spring bout of mononucleosis to throw a seven-inning gem on Sunday afternoon, following two close games, one which the Reds won on a walk-off homer by Ramon Hernandez.  The Reds drew first blood, which means very little in the long run, but it should act as a reminder that they feature premier performers on both sides of the ball, something which few NL teams can boast.

A strong finish to 2010, an acclaimed manager, an active offseason, a vaunted farm system, and now a 4-0 start have made the Orioles a favorite darkhorse in the American League.  However, I'm more impressed by their AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays.  One could argue that both teams are vying for, at best, third place, but the increased parity in the division makes it possible that a few breaks could make it possible for one of these teams to sneak into the Wild Card race.  Ricky Romero's manhandling of the Twins furthered the impression that he could be the breakout pitcher of 2011.  (You can see more on Romero in my "21st Century Cy" post from the preseason.)  And, in the early going, the Jays have continued the power display of 2010, but with more balance (.304 AVG, .371 OBP, 17 BB, 19 K, 3 SB).  Obviously, it's a small sample size and we should not underestimate the fact that Twins are 6-20 against the Blue Jays since 2008.  It's clearly a good matchup for Toronto to open with, but I think the Jays will make everybody uncomfortable in 2011, especially when playing in the Skydome...er, Rogers Centre.  They've got an imposing, circular lineup and an frightening young pitching staff.  They could be erratic, but Romero, Kyle Drabek, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil are all guys with incredible "stuff."  No lineup looks forward to facing a stretch of pitcher like this, any one of whom could show up and be completely unhittable.  Whether they win 80 or 90, this is going to be a fun team to watch in 2011.

I think the fans of the D-Backs have a lot to look forward to.  The team is building around Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, and Daniel Hudson.  And everything about Kirk Gibson seems perfectly suited to this process.  However, as the D-Backs opened their season in Colorado we witnessed the difference between a team with lots of a potential and a team who's realized that potential.  Following the surprising runs by the Giants and Padres in 2010, it's ease to forget that the Rockies were the favorites for much of the season and have been to the playoffs twice in the last four years.  They are an efficient, well-oiled ballclub.  They take extra bases.  They turn double plays.  They limit baserunners and longballs.  They've got a deep bullpen and an impressive bench.  There are two other good teams in their division, the Giants and the Dodgers, both probably have deeper rotations than the Rockies, and in the NL West, the deepest rotation has, in recent years, usually been the key to victory.  But unlike the Giants, who are defensively challenged and the Dodgers, who trot out players you thought were retired (and probably should be) at three or four positions everyday, the Rockies are above average in every aspect of the game.  Is a well-rounded team better than one which absolutely dominates one aspect of the game?  Not necessarily, especially when that aspect is starting pitching.  But those that believe that NL West race is all about the L.A. v. S.F. rivalry are ignoring an elephant in the room.  

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...

NL East:

Thanks in large part to the foresight and creativity of a front office led by CEO David Montgomery, former GM and advisor Pat Gillick, and current GM Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been to the playoffs in four straight years and, following an offseason which featured the surprise return of Cliff Lee, they are the prohibitive favorites in the National League once again.

However, they've had a rough spring.  First, they lost the services of their promising rookie outfielder, Dominic Brown, to a wrist injury which will probably cost him at least half the season.  Also, their brittle closer, Brad Lidge, has been sidelined for at least a few weeks.  And, most importantly, the team's best hitter and defensive whiz, Chase Utley, is beleaguered by an injury for which there is, at this point, neither a confident diagnosis or a timetable for return, fueling speculation that the five-time All-Star may be out for the season, if not longer.

With Jayson Werth, the Phillies most productive hitter in 2010, now playing for a division rival, there are now some gaping holes in Philadelphia's lineup, which not so long ago was the best in all of baseball.  They opened their season yesterday with Jimmy Rollins and his 737 OPS since 2007 hitting third, while the 38-year-old Raul Ibanez provided protection for Ryan Howard.

But, while the Phillies offense may be a shadow of its former glory, the rotation is being heralded as one of the greatest ever.  That may be presumptuous, but the Phillies do have a quartet of Aces and arguably the two best starting pitchers in the game, Lee and Roy Halladay.  Teams like San Francisco and San Diego proved only a year ago that a deep, dominating rotation can take you a long way, especially in the National League.  And, despite its growing flaws, nobody's comparing the Phillies lineup to the Padres.

The Braves, who eeked into the playoffs as a Wild Card last season, have been a somewhat popular pick this preseason to upset Philadelphia.  Their viability depends upon the progress of some very young players on whom they are depending heavily: Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor.  Although I'm willing to admit this is a frightening collection of talent, I'm not sure we can expect it to avoid the inconsistency which is generally expected from young cores.  If they are to do so, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Nate McClouth will need to be healthy and productive...

I would, in fact, observe that the Florida Marlins are a team composed very similarly to the Braves.  They've got tons of talent on both sides of the ball, but much of it is not yet established at the major-league level.  What the Marlins have that the Braves do not is a proven stud in his prime hitting in the middle of the lineup.  I think this gives them a minor advantage, although I could see either team winning anywhere from 75 to 95 games with a few good breaks.

Philadelphia Phillies 91 W
Florida Marlins 86 W
Atlanta Braves 85 W
Washington Nationals 66 W
New York Mets 62 W

MVP Candidate: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Cy Young Candidate: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Comeback of the Year: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
Breakout Candidates: Logan Morrison, Marlins; Anibal Sanchez, Marlins; Ian Desmond, Nationals

NL Central:

The Brewers are a "wild card" team in every sense of the word.  They have an extremely high Narrative Likability Factor (for me, they are this year's version of the 2010 Rangers).

In last year's preview of the NL Central there were a few predictions on which I can hang my hat.  First, while everybody else was picking the Cardinals to run away with the title, I noted that they were "not as complete as some would have you believe," lacked "a whole lot of compensatory depth," and that "the Cardinals lineup looks a little tepid."  Correct on all counts.  Thank you.

I also noted that "the real Wild Card here is the Cincinnati Reds" and that "they could become an NL version of the '08 Rays."  Again, not terribly far off.

Unfortunately, the team I expected to outperform both the Cardinals and the Reds was the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished back of both, in third place.

The Brewers major problem was a familiar one: starting pitching.  They addressed it in a major way this offseason by trading for both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.  As I wrote a few months back, these trades signal Doug Melvin's intention to "go for it" after nearly a decade of patient building.  Melvin mortgaged the farm for two front-line starters to slot in between Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf.  Next offseason he faces the possibility of losing two of his offensive lynchpins, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, potentially pressing the reset button on all his work and progressively raised expectations.  To retain his job, I think Melvin needs a playoff appearance, at the very least.  

Surmounting Cincinnati is, however, no mean task.  The Reds were the NL's offensive powerhouse in 2010.  There's no obvious reason why that should change.  In addition, they seem to have an army of high-upside young pitchers.  This is a team built to win not only now, but for many years to come.  The Reds have pretty much their entire roster under control for at least the next two seasons, with several key players wrapped up into the middle of the decade.

Cincinnati Reds 97 W

Milwaukee Brewers 93 W

Chicago Cubs 82 W

St. Louis Cardinals 74 W

Pittsburgh Pirates 70 W

Houston Astros 63 W

MVP Candidate: Prince Fielder, Brewers & Ryan Braun, Brewers

Cy Young Candidate: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Comeback of the Year: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

Breakout Candidates: Jay Bruce, Reds; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

NL West:

From my perspective, this is the toughest division to call in 2011.  It's hard to argue with the reigning World Series Champs, who have a dynamic young core and the potential to get better via the resurgence of Pablo Sandoval and the ascendence of Brandon Belt.

That said, we should remember that prior to 2010, this division was considered a two horse race between the Rockies and the Dodgers.  Each of those teams also possesses an impressive stable of young talent entering their primes.  As such, the NL West features three teams with established identities, but who still have plenty of upside and who are hungry to prove themselves.  The Giants will have a hard time shaking the label of "fluke," given their status as an extreme underdog going into the 2010 playoffs.  The Dodgers, after getting to the NLCS two years in a row with basically the same team, are eager to shake off the bad taste of 2010, only their second losing season in the last 11 years, during which the McCourt Divorce dominated the headlines.  And the Rockies, who always play with a chip on their shoulders, feel as though they have the makings of a dynasty, having locked up Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez through at least 2014.  

Whatever I choose, I feel I've got a strong chance of being wrong.

Colorado Rockies 93 W

Los Angeles Dodgers 90 W

San Francisco Giants 87 W

Arizona D-Backs 76 W

San Diego Padres 63 W

MVP Candidate: Justin Upton, D-Backs

Cy Young Candidate: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt, Giants

Comeback of the Year: Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Breakout Candidates: Ian Kennedy, D-Backs; Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, Rockies; Brandon Allen, D-Backs

The Giants & The Beanstalk

Although I certainly would've preferred the World Series to run on a little longer with a little better showing from the Rangers, as I've probably made quite clear, I'm very satisfied with this result.  The Giants are a "fairytale" team.  And, every once in awhile, baseball needs a fairytale champion.  Sadly, the ratings were bad, as the casual fan was less likely to be familiar with the narratives of these players and the history of these teams, which was a large part of what made them interesting.  But by winning the World Series for the first time in half a century, during a season when few people picked them to finish better than second or third in their division, the Giants dignified that optimism which inspires fans every March and April: "With a few good breaks, with a few smart decisions, this could be our year."

This is a big part of why the Rangers/Giants matchup was "good for baseball," even if it wasn't good for Fox Corp (and, by the way, fuck what's good for Fox Corp).  Baseball thrives on the performance of the underdog.  Let's face it, it's only the first of November and we already know there are less than half a dozen teams with a chance of winning the NBA title next June.  March Madness consists of 64 teams, but we all know less than a quarter of those have even the slightest chance.  The NFL thrives on the rhetoric of competitive balance (and rhetoric whose main aim is to somehow dignify an inhumane labor policy), but nearly half the teams in their league have never won a Super Bowl.  Baseball has had nine champions in the last ten seasons.  Two of those champions were first-time winners (Angels & D-Backs) and three had waited more than a generation (ChiSox, BoSox, & Giants).  One could easily argue that, on that basis, there's more balance in baseball than in any other sport, even though it doesn't have a salary cap and hopefully never will.

So, there's the good, but, frankly, I've had enough optimism.  The fact is, although I thoroughly enjoyed this season and these playoffs, now it's all over, and that inevitably puts me in a sour mood.  Here are some reasons why this season sucks:

1.) Yankee Fans

From the meathead bigot who slapped Nelson Cruz's glove during the NLCS to the jackasses that spit on Cliff Lee's wife.  Yankee fandom has reached a new nadir.  Maybe it's the fact that Hank and Hal are sleazier and more entitled than their old man (who would've thought it possible).  Maybe it's the fact that the new stadium is an overpriced, simulacrum haven for Caucasians.  Maybe it's the fact that the pinstriped ethos has turned soulful players like C. C. Sabathia, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson into stilted shadows of their former selves.  Whatever the cause, the Yankees are more despicable than ever, and the widespread ignorance and arrogance of their supporters may be the main reason why.  Enjoy the rapid decline of A-Rod and the "Core Four."  You deserve it.

2.) Brian Sabean

I think my position on the likability of this team is pretty well documented, but the Giants GM was very fortunate that a strategy which looks a hell of a lot like a desperate shot in the dark actually paid off.  Sabean, baseball's longest tenured GM, has a few things to hang his hat on.  The Giants have drafted well.  They've developed young pitchers as well as any franchise in the sport.  They've got a great ballpark and a very supportive fanbase, despite a great deal of controversy and the number of crappy teams they've fielded during the last decade.  However, by winning the 2010 World Series, the Giants players basically got Sabean off the hook for what has been a pretty embarrassing stretch of acquisitions, dating back to the infamous Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser for one year of A. J. Pierzynski trade in 2003.  As I discussed in my previous post, this team is on the hook for some really bad contracts: Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa top the list.  And those are just the ones that are still on the books.  Resigning Bengie Molina was patently absurd.  One can argue that Edgar Renteria justified his ridiculous contract with a World Series MVP, by remember how much money the Giants paid to other over-the-hill veterans like Randy Winn, Rich Aurilia, and Dave Roberts.  All are likable players, all were at one point productive, but not so much when Sabean was paying them.  Sabean's fiscal record is among the worst in the sport.  Will winning buy the Bay Area hundreds of millions more dollars in bad contracts?

3.) Seth Everett

I can't possibly do any better than to direct you to the recent "re-reunion" of Fire Joe Morgan, but at a time when research is getting easier, access is more abundant, and competition is fierce, mainstream media commentators are somehow growing more incompetent.  Peter Pascarelli isn't exactly a baseball genius, but they replaced him on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast with an asinine self-promotor named Seth Everett who made the show pretty much unlistenable.  By host Eric Karabell's own admission, his podcast is made specifically for rabid baseball fans, yet Everett frequently exposes an ignorance of the sport to the point of not knowing which player is on which team and babbles on incessantly about his personal life, which is about as interesting as the underside of the refrigerator and should be as inaccessible.  The Baseball Today situation may be a synechdoche for the problems which abound throughout the baseball media.  Pascarelli was fired because he made a relatively mild joke about the new statue of Bud Selig in Milwaukee.  The iron hand of MLB has made good journalists weary of being critical, objective, candid, witty, and spontaneous when it comes to coverage of their sport.  And thus we're left with the smug, insubstantial musings of half-wits like Everett and his ilk.

4.) Backlash Against Defensive Sabermetrics

One of the major stories of last offseason was the attempt, especially by forward-thinking GMs like Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Jack Zduriencik, to build their rosters around defensive efficiency, measured in part by things like UZR, the Fielding Bible, and no doubt many other in-house statistics.  Unfortunately, none of these teams made extraordinary leaps in the standings in the wake of this strategy.  In fact, quite the opposite.  The Red Sox, though still a solid team, dropped six wins from 2009 and finished out of the postseason for the first time since 2006.  The Mariners, following an optimism-inducing 85-win campaign in '09, dropped to 61 wins, one of the worst records in baseball.  And though the Athletics managed to get to .500 for the first time since '06, they remained well short of contention.  Anti-sabermetric pundits will use this opportunity to berate us for thinking that defense is measurable.  The truth is, Boston's season was derailed by injuries, Zduriencik couldn't possibly have predicted how bad his team would be offensively (historically bad), and a closer look at Oakland (forthcoming) suggest that Beane's approach has some legitimacy.  In all likelihood, however, that's not how the story will be treated during this offseason.

5.) Chicago Cubs Still Chicago Cubs

This one hurts.  The Cubs got back to losing in 2010 and not only that, they got back to losing in sensational and humiliating fashion.  They had the largest payroll in the National League, yet they managed to finish fifth in their division, behind even the Houston Astros, who started the season by going 16-33 and then traded away two of their best players.  The Cubs best (and most expensive) pitcher got demoted to the bullpen, than suspended from the team, and now his future may no longer be in Chicago.  The three best (and most expensive) hitters were all busts, looking old, slow, and brittle.  The $136 Million prize, Alfonso Soriano, had the same WAR (2.9) as Denard Span.  He has four years left on his contract, at $18 Million per annum (in other words, for the same price we could probably have Carl Crawford).  Lou Pinella "retired," but the new ownership, for some unknown reason, still hasn't gotten around to firing Jim Hendry, who has presided over the creation of this mess, apparently in perpetuity.  Now they've got a rookie manager, very little payroll flexibility, and a stacked division.  The decade just began, but it already looks like this might not be the one in which we'll finally break the curse.  Congrats to San Francisco, Boston, and the White Sox.  It's getting very lonely in Loserville.

Do the Giants need this more?

Let me first emphasize that I don't believe this series is over.  Cliff Lee will take the mound against Tim Lincecum tonight in a rematch of a much-anticipated Game One which turned out to be anything but a pitcher's duel.  Something tells me less than 18 runs will be scored this time around.  Are the Rangers capable of winning three in a row?  Of course they are.  But, at least at this point, they've been absolutely dominated.  The Giants look like they want it more.  And, although I usually abhor observations like that, here's why it might be true.

The Expendables are not going to be around next year.  They are, by nature, expendable.  While the Rangers core, with the notable exception of Cliff Lee, is wrapped up for years to come, the wily veterans on the Giants know their time together is coming to an end.  Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, Jose Guillen, and nearly all of the productive middle relievers in the Giants bullpen will be free agents this offseason.  Huff, Burrell, and Uribe will all be far more enticing than they were a year ago.  As a result, they will all, presumably, be looking for multiyear deals for significantly more money than they earned from the Giants this season.  In other words, they won't all be back...and perhaps none of them will.

And while Brian Sabean clearly has a lot to be proud of right now, he must know that the offseason, even if it begins with some long-awaited celebrating, is going to be a tough one financially.  The Giants have committed more than $38 Million in 2011 to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa.  Zito will be, at best, their fifth starter next season, and wasn't considered good enough by Bruce Bochy to even gain a spot on the playoff roster.  Rowand has become a very expensive fourth outfielder.  And, DeRosa, though a productive player as recently as 2009, is a 36-year-old coming off of major wrist surgery (wrist injuries have a notoriously long rehab process, sometimes years).

So, basically, that's well over a third of San Francisco's payroll that's sunk before the season even begins.  Add to it that they face potentially expensive arbitration hearings for Jonathan Sanchez, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross, as well as the significant and well-deserved raises coming to Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson, and what we have is a franchise that will by nearing their current payroll limit (~$100 Million) before they even attempt to deal with the free agent market.

The Giants do have a few things to hang their hats on.  There's no reason to believe that Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez won't continue to be one of the most dominant trios of starting pitchers in the game.  Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner had exceptional rookie campaigns and should be under the franchises control for many years to come.  Pablo Sandoval, widely regarded as the Giants best position player when the year began, suffered a season-long slump, but could well be due for a rebound in 2011.  But that observation also begs the question: Can Posey and Bumgarner avoid a similar sophomore slump?  Can Andres Torres prove that he's not a fluke after having a breakout season at the age of 30?  Are Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez the dominant setup men they were in 2010, or was there due cause for their previous teams to give up on them?

The Rangers have Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Elvis Andrus.  They've got Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Neftali Feliz.  They've got one of the deepest and most promising pools of young pitching in the game, with guys like Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Tommy Hunter, Dustin Nippert, and Tanner Scheppers.  And they've still got high-end hitting prospects like Chris Davis and Max Ramirez.  They've got new ownership with deeper pockets and lots of payroll flexibility because they've got no bad contracts currently on the books.  There is really no reason to believe that Texas cannot be right back in the postseason next year and for several years to come, with or without Cliff Lee.

The Giant, on the other hand, are, for better or worse, a patchwork team.  They've got a solid foundation of starting pitching, but all season long Sabean has been getting by with what amounts to duct tape and putty.  If that structure holds together for just a few more days, they Giants will win their first World Series in half a century.  But, this house has not been built to survive the winter, and everybody in the San Francisco clubhouse knows it.  

If You Aren't Worried About the Giants Ability to Score Runs, You Aren't Really a Giants Fan

The Giants 20-run eruption in the first two games of the World Series has spawned a flurry of righteous San Franciscans to bombard the mainstream media comment boards and call-in shows with juvenile "I told you so" hysterics, claiming that the popular prediction by baseball pundits, that the Giants would struggle to score runs, is somehow evidence of ineptitude and "East Coast bias."  There are plenty of reasons to make such claims; however, this is not one of them.

I will point out that I was not among the multitude who published such a prediction, but only because I believe that it's so utterly obvious that it fails to qualify as meaningful analysis.  So-called Giants fans are objecting to tautological platitudes.  Really!?!  Is that worthy of your outrage?  The Giants offensive woes have been well-documented and continuous.  They haven't scored 700 runs in a season since 2006.  (The Rangers, as an alternative example, haven't failed to score 700 runs since 1995.)  This 20-run explosion is an outlier of extraordinary proportions.  Here's a few reasons why:

1.) It took the Giants seven previous postseason games to accumulated as many as twenty runs of offense.

2.) In a 162-game season, they scored twenty runs in a two-game stretch exactly three times.  In those games, the starting pitchers they were facing were guys like Chris Narveson, Manny Parra, and Homer Bailey.

3.) In 170 career starts for San Francisco, Matt Cain's Giants teammates have scored nine or more runs for him on only nine occasions (providing a partial explanation for how a guy with a 3.45 career ERA and a 1.22 WHIP is saddled with a losing record).

4.) The Giants scored 41 fewer runs than any other postseason team in 2010.

If you aren't worried about the Giants ability to score runs, either you haven't been paying attention or you're living in a state of oblivion.  The real Giants fans are, even with their two-game lead, living in anticipation of the spigot being shut off, perhaps permanently.  I heard several anxious utterances during both games to this effect: "Stop scoring, we're going to need some of these runs tomorrow."  This is, of course, a somewhat hilarious baseball superstition, but it indicates exactly how run-starved this team has been.  Unlike Texans, who have come to expect frequent firework displays, Giants fans can't even enjoy a blowout.  It's too unfamiliar.  It feels like a portent of doom.  

The Bengie Molina Factor (World Series Preview)

Mark Simon said on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast yesterday that Bengie Molina will join Lonnie Smith as the only players in baseball history to play in a World Series which featured two teams which both voted them postseason shares.  That means, of course, that Molina's going to get a ring either way, though, no doubt, it will be something of a mixed blessing if it has the Giants logo stamped on it.  Mr. Smith (a.k.a. Skates) ended up on the side of the World Champions and no doubt enjoyed putting it to his former team.  (He hit .333 in the '85 Series, with three doubles, four runs, four RBI, and two steals.  The rookie who inspired the Cardinals to trade him, Vince Coleman, sat out the series with an injury and his replacements, guys like Cesar Cedeno and Andy Van Slyke, struggled mightily (combined 3-for-26).)  So, if the Rangers lose, Molina would be the first to receive a ring for a World Series in which he played for the opposing side.

Even if he goes nuts and wins the World Series MVP, there's probably no way Molina can make the Giants regret trading him.  After all, they don't get this far without finding a way to get Buster Posey in the lineup everyday.  Posey solidified the middle of their lineup throughout the second half and his four hits and two RBI sparked a crucial Game Four win in the NLCS.

That said, nobody knows better than the Giants (and their fans) how streaky Molina can be and how dangerous he is when running hot.  He carried a heavy load this past April, hitting .344 with a .403 OBP at a time when the rest of the offense (even Aubrey Huff) was sputtering and guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, and Cody Ross weren't even on the roster.  But also lingering in the minds of the Giants faithful, including GM Brian Sabean, is certainly the clutch performance Molina put forward the last time they were in the World Series, in 2002.  Problem is, at that time he was also on the opposing team, the Angels.  Molina's overall stats for the '02 Series are solid (.286 AVG, .375 OBP, etc.), but what Giants fans will remember are the two doubles he hit in Game Seven, the first of which tied the game.

Molina has, thusfar this postseason, been running hot.  He hit .333 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and a 922 OPS during the Rangers first two series, highlighted by his huge three-run homer in Game Four of the ALCS.

Of course, Molina's offense is not the only thing he brings to the table.  There is only one player on the Rangers roster who has a significant history with Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain.  And that player, Bengie Molina, has seen more pitches from the trio of Giants hurlers than anybody in the game, having been their primary catcher every since they reached the big leagues.  If there is a functional scouting report for San Francisco's Aces, Molina knows it.

Under Constructions Indefinitely (World Series Preview)

How much can a general manager really do during the season?  Sure, the trade deadline provides an exciting midseason sideshow which sometimes leads to stars changing uniforms, but only on rare occasions (say, C. C. Sabathia in 2008) do those moves really create contenders.  Remember when the Braves acquired Mark Teixeira from the Rangers for a package that included two key players on their World Series roster (Elvis Andrus & Neftali Feliz), as well as two more players who made minor contributions during the 2010 season (Matt Harrison & Jarrod Saltalamacchia).  (You think the Braves might've been a better team this year with Andrus at short and Feliz in the bullpen?)  Teixeira played great down the stretch, but it wasn't enough to push a flawed Atlanta team past the Phillies and the Mets.

Although a GM can certainly contribute by building organizational depth and knowing who to promote and when to promote them, most of their job is done during the offseason.  Look at the Yankees and Phillies for instance.  When the Yankees took the field in the ALCS, they had exactly the lineup New York fans enjoyed on Opening Day, with the exception of Lance Berkman/Marcus Thames being substituted for the injured Nick Swisher.  Ditto for the Phillies.  On their pitching staffs you had a couple notable additions, Roy Oswalt and Kerry Wood, but otherwise they looked much as they had six months ago.  You could make the same observations about the Rays, Reds, Twins, and Braves.

One of the most interesting things about our two World Series contestants is their exceptional roster turnover.  When the managers set their 25-man rosters on Wednesday, both sides will likely feature at least a dozen guys who didn't break camp with the team in April.

For Texas, the top two thirds of the lineup, though they've struggled through injuries to Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, have been crucial to their success.  Thats the core you think about when you think about the Rangers.  The bottom third, however, composed generally of catchers, first basemen, and right-fielders, has been a constant source of stress for Ron Washington.  The Rangers began the season with a bunch of promising young players, many of the former first-round draft picks fighting for these positions - guys like Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Julio Borbon, Max Ramirez, and Chris Davis.  They ended up giving an unfortunate number of at-bats to also-rans like Matt Treanor, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, and Ryan Garko, because several of the kids had trouble finding the Mendoza line.

However, Texas's most drastic renovations came in the rotation.  The Rangers year began with starts by Scott Feldman and Rich Harden, a few days later they turned to Matt Harrison.  If those names aren't familiar to you, that's because none of them made the playoff roster.  Ten pitchers got the chance to start games for Texas in 2010 and only Colby Lewis and C. J. Wilson were constants.  That's not generally a recipe for postseason success, but the Rangers eventually found a rhythm, mainly through the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the promotions of Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland.

The bullpen was a similar work in progress, as Frank Francisco was expected to return as the closer and Chris Ray was going to be one of his key set-up men.  Francisco went on the D.L. after a week and when he returned, Neftali Feliz had taken his spot.  Ray eventually got shipped to San Francisco following the discovery of Alexi Ogando.  All told, though the Texas bullpen was one of the best in the American League, they used fourteen different pitchers for at least ten innings.

The Giants tell basically the opposite story.  Four pitchers made 33 starts, a picture of rotational consistency which is the envy of nearly the entire league.  Only one change was made all year, when 20-year-old rookie Madison Bumgarner replaced Todd Wellemeyer at the end of June.  The bullpen, conceived around closer Brian Wilson and set-up men Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt did have some turnover, as all bullpens do, but the central pieces were always in place and five pitchers threw at least 50 innings.

The lineup, however, was something of a marvel of musical chairs.  Assuming that Bruce Bochy starts the World Series with the defensive alignment he's used through most of the playoffs, it will feature exactly one player, Aubrey Huff, who was in the lineup on Opening Day.  (Freddy Sanchez would've been in there had it not been for a lingering injury.)  Four of the Giants eight starting position players weren't even with the team until June or later.  Here's a comparison of Opening Day and the likely Game One lineup:

Aaron Rowand, CF		Andres Torres, CF
Edgar Renteria, SS		Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Pablo Sandoval, 3B		Aubrey Huff, 1B
Aubrey Huff, 1B		Buster Posey, C
Mark DeRosa, 2B		Pat Burrell, LF
Bengie Molina, C		Cody Ross, RF
John Bowker, RF		Juan Uribe, SS
Nate Schierholtz, LF		Mike Fontenot, 3B
Tim Lincecum, P		Tim Lincecum, P

Bet you didn't recall that the Giants "big" offseason signing was Mark DeRosa.  Ten players got double-digit starts in the Giants outfield in 2010.  The infield provided significant amounts of work for Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Emmanuel Buriss.  Remember them?

Honestly, I haven't yet found one team, let alone two, that did these kind of renovations over the course of their season, yet found their way to the World Series nonetheless.  It helps, of course, that each has a abundant strength - the top of the lineup for Texas, the rotation for San Francisco - but even so, we all know that dominating one aspect of the game isn't enough to make it to the mountaintop.  You've got to give a great deal of credit for these team's opportunities to the in-season creativity of Brian Sabean and Jon Daniels.

The Giants Have Suffered Since They Left New York, The Rangers Have Suffered... (World Series Preview)

All season long it seemed like we were on course for an inevitable collision.  

The reigning World Champion, the Yankees, did little to dispel the notion that they were the team to beat.  Very little had changed following their celebration last October.  They still had the nine-figure talents of A-Rod, Teixeira, and Sabathia.  They had their lucky charms: Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada.  The ever-excellent lineup was perhaps even the slightest bit improved by the acquisition of Curtis Granderson and the continued development of Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner.  

On the other side we had the two-time reigning NL Champs, the Philadelphia Phillies, who still boasted the league's most intimidating lineup, but had also added the league's best pitcher, Roy Halladay.  His greatest appeal for Philadelphia GM, Ruben Amaro, may have been his incredible record against the team that had ousted the Phillies the previous fall.

The Yankees got out of the gates quickly.  They had the best record during the first half, and finished the season just one win short of the AL's top seed.  The Phillies struggled with injuries early, but by going 50-25 after the All-Star Break, they managed to finish with the best record in baseball.  To many, a rematch seemed destined.  Would Doc Halladay be the key to trouncing the Bombers?  Would Sabathia again dominate the lefty-heavy Phillies lineup?  How many big homers would be yielded by the shaky middle relief corps on either side?  

Alas, we got ahead of ourselves...

And it appeared the megaliths did as well.  The Yankees got owned by Colby Lewis, Cliff Lee, and Derek Holland, while the Rangers put up crooked numbers night after night after night.  Texas had a dozen multirun innings against Yankees beleaguered staff.  They hit nine homers and outscored the Bombers by nineteen runs over six games.  Although nobody seem comfortably saying it, this was a flat-out shelling.  In at least half the games, including two in their home ballpark, New York barely showed up.  

In the NL, the vaunted Philadelphia lineup had no answer for Tim Lincecum in Game One, for Matt Cain in Game Three, or for Javier Lopez and Brian Wilson throughout, while the self-described conglomeration of "misfits and castoffs" manufactured runs when they needed them most, led by unlikely hero, Cody Ross, who probably wouldn't have been in the starting lineup had it not been for a neck injury which sidelined Jose Guillen.  But San Francisco hardly dominated.  They were actually outscored by Philadelphia over the course of the NLCS (by one run) and never led any game by more than three.  It was tortuous, to borrow the sentiment of Giants announcer Duane Kuiper which has become the rallying cry of Bay Are fans, but it was enough.

And so, for the first time since 2005, when the White Sox broke the Black Sox curse against the Astros, who were representing the NL for the first time, we have a matchup of two teams who have both been waiting a very long time for some relief.  To me, that's a recipe for excitement.  Sure, in 2005, the White Sox managed an impressive sweep, but every game was decided by two runs or less, and one of them lasted 14 innings.  In 2002, when the Giants faced off with the Angels, who were, like the Rangers, coming off their first AL Pennant, we certainly got our money's worth.  There were for one-run games, including a wild 11-10 slugfest in Game Two.  It was the last time we had a World Series that went to seven games.  

So, the Giants have been here as recently as 2002 (which, of course, really isn't that recent), but they lost, in heartbreaking fashion (famously up 5-0 with eight outs to go).  In 1989 they got swept in the infamous "Quake" series against the Bash Brothers.  In 1962, they lost in seven to the Yankees.  The Giants have never brought the Championship Trophy home to San Francisco, and the franchise hasn't won it period for more than half a century.  Willie Mays was 23-years-old the last time they won in '54.  Willie McCovey never got a ring.  Juan Marichal never got a ring.  Ditto for Will Clark.  And, most famously, Barry Bonds.

The Rangers, an '60s expansion team, had never won a postseason series before this month.  Before this weekend, they were one of only three franchises who had never won a pennant (sorry Mariners and Nationals).  They joined the league as the Washington Senators in 1961, making them easily the oldest team to be making their first trip.  Generally, teams look to mark such occasions by rolling out a roster of the best players in their history for photo-ops and opening ceremonies, but the Rangers history has been so thoroughly mediocre that's it's hard to imagine who, besides Nolan Ryan, would make the guest list.  The hitters who top all the franchise record boards are Ivan Rodriguz, Rafael Palmeiro, and Juan Gonzalez.  Pudge, of course, still plays for the Nationals, so it's hard to imagine him trotting out like an old-timer.  All three have been tainted by the steroid controversy and all left the franchise on relatively bad terms.  But who else do you turn to?  Toby Harrah?  Ruben Sierra?  Don't be surprised if we get to see Kenny Rogers first World Series appearance since the infamous "dirtball" incident in 2007.  Charlie Hough won 139 games for the Rangers, best in franchise history.  That'd barely be good enough for 10th on the Giants list.

San Francisco will, of course, role out a cavalcade of stars.  We'll likely see Hall of Famers like Mays, McCovey, and Marichal.  Perhaps Orlando Cepeda.  Gaylord Perry pitched for both squads.  That might be interesting.  Bonds threw out a first pitch during the NLCS.  Will he return for another engagement with the team that refused to offer him a contract the year after he broke the home-run record?  

Clearly, the Giants have the more impressive history, they've got the more diehard fan base, and, to be fair, they've waited longer.  There are plenty of octogenarians in the AT&T stand who may not be able to handle another heartbreak.  It's probably good news for Giants fans that there isn't a single player on the team who was even in the organization in 2002.  Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were still in high school at the time.

What promises to be great about this matchup in general is that both these teams have proven themselves utterly immune to expectations, pressure, criticism, second-guessing, and outside forces of all variety.  That's partially why, when I gave my Narrative Likability grades prior to the playoffs, these two teams got the highest marks.  I don't expect a whole lot of momentum swings.  These teams don't work like that.  The Rangers suffered one of the most brutal losses in recent postseason history in Game One of the ALCS, as the Yankees game back from five runs down in the eighth inning.  The Rangers followed up on the gutwrenching loss with three straight wins by a combined score of 25 to 5.  In the NLCS, the Giants led for only 43% of the innings.  They easily could have been worn out waiting for the other shoe to drop, but they rallied from behind on three separate occasions to beat a team which literally everybody thought was better than them.

In the next 48 hours I hope to provide a few tidbits and a little provocative analysis regarding The Expendables and The Rangers of Redemption.  I don't know that I've ever been more excited for a World Series. 

If Brooks Conrad Ain't A Second-Baseman, I Don't Know What He Is; Aubrey Huff for M.V.P.?

I've heard several commentators, including ESPN's Jon Miller, make excuses for Braves infielder, Brooks Conrad, who has made an outlandish four errors in the first three games of the NLDS, based on the fact that he's "not a natural second-baseman," having been forced into the position following injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado.  The fact is, however, the 30-year-old rookie was only a third-baseman out of necessity.  Cox moved him to second this postseason in an effort to make him more comfortable, as 90% of him minor-league chances came at that position.  He hadn't exactly been slick at the hot corner, making 7 errors in 22 starts (.903 FLD%).  I don't mean to pile it on, but you can't blame these mistakes on Cox.  Conrad is playing his "natural" position.  He's just clearly having some sort of exacerbated Chuck Knoblauch performance anxiety in his first exposure to the October pressure-cooker.  He doesn't exactly bring the heavy lumber (1-for-10), so it's probably time to give Troy Glaus or Diory Hernandez a chance.

On a more positive note, in celebration of Aubrey Huff's game-tying and potentially season-saving hit, let's take a look at a highly underrated season-long peformance from the Huffinator:

1.) Huff led the Giants in runs (100), hits (165), homers (26), total bases (288), RBI (86), walks (83), average (.290), OBP (.385), and slugging (.506).  He also led the team in games played and at-bats, which may be the biggest accomplishment, considering he was coming off a season in which he was consistently hobbled by back and knee problems.  Obviously, even after Andres Torres was made a permanent starter and Buster Posey was promoted to provide him with a little protection, Huff was the single most important addition to this year's team.

2.) Huff's 891 OPS was good for tenth in the NL.  His 5.7 WAR was also good for tenth.  He also finished in the top ten in runs (7th), walks (6th), and runs created (9th).  All this, despite the fact that the lineup around him, especially in the first half, was among the weakest in the National League, and he played half his games in a pitcher's paradise (AT&T Park was 22nd overall in Park Factor this year).

3.) Huff's overall numbers are suppressed by the fact that he had a horrible April.  In the final five months of the season he hit .300 with a .922 OPS and 24 of his 26 homers.  During that span, only five NL players had a higher OPS than Huff.  They were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, and Troy Tulowitzki.  That's VIP company.

4.) Huff increased his value be being a kind of premium utilityman, when the Giants needed it.  He played over 250 inning in both left and right field.  And, according to FanGraphs, he was actually fairly decent in the outfield (1.3 UZR).  He was excellent once he took over as the everyday first-baseman, posting a 5.3 UZR, which trailed only Ike Davis and Adam LaRoche on the senior circuit.

I certainly won't be voting for Huff ahead of Votto, CarGo, and Prince Albert, but he should probably be on everybody's ballot.

BBA Ballot: NL Connie Mack Award

Stay tuned at the BBA for the unveiling of the winners later this week.  Here's my ballot for the senior circuit:

Honorable Mentions: Bud Black (Padres) & Bobby Cox (Braves)

I spent all season predicting both these teams to bend over like wet noodles and, in the end, I was only half right about each, so I'm here to say that their collective "overperformance" should be a feather in the cap of their managers.  That said, it was only by virtue of the fact that their late-season flounderings were synchronized with those of the Cardinals and Rockies, as well as each other, that either one of them backdoored their way into playing baseball in October.  Black worked a minor miracle with his young pitching staff, but he also gave away a few critical wins by being too loyal for too long to guys like David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, and the Hairston brothers.  Cox overcame a bevy of injuries and coaxed career years out of Omar Infante and Martin Prado, but he also worked his pitchers to the bone, especially Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, both pushed too far too fast following their injuries.  It was an outstanding season for both franchises, but one that might actually have leveraged future performance for only modest immediate returns.

Third Place: Charlie Manuel (Phillies)

Eric Karabell has been making the case for Manuel for most of the past month and it's a pretty good one. His entire infield, and therefore his one through four hitters, all missed substantial time.  At one point in late July, when the attrition was particularly high, the two-time reigning NL champs fell as far as seven games back of the Braves and were only three games above .500.  Yet, somehow, even though they were never a full strength, the Phils came raging back over the last two months and finished with the best record in baseball and their best record since 1993.  Karabell is correct.  This is among Manuel's finest accomplishments.  However, he was blessed with an unflappable veteran roster, the core of which has been through this gambit for each of the last four seasons.  He is overseeing a dynasty on rival with Big Red Machine, the "We Are Family" Pirates, and the late-'60s Cardinals, the standard-bearers for National League baseball.  And, this season, he also had the best pitcher in baseball, who threw a perfect game, brought home 21 victories, and recorded more outs than anybody since Livan Hernandez in 2004.  Was there ever a chance this team would finish anywhere except atop the National League?  Probably not.

Second Place: Bruce Bochy (Giants)

In his fourth year with San Francisco, Bochy got the Giants back to the postseason for the first time since the "Bonds Years" ('00-'03).  He was blessed with an extraordinary rotation, but as has been the case in every season since his arrival, Bochy had to fret and stress for every run.  I've already covered San Francisco's dubious, but extremely entertaining "expendables" strategy at length.  It's not easy choosing between Jose Guillen, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross, when that's all you have available.  It's not easy benching two likable veterans (Edgar Renteria & Aaron Rowand) who are making over $20 Million, but can't hit a lick.  It's not easy turning the left side of your infield over to two men who weigh about 250 lbs. apiece (Pablo Sandoval & Juan Uribe) when you are team built around pitching.  Bochy was faced with numerous tough decisions and almost all of them worked out perfectly.  You can give some of the credit to Brian Sabean or to luck, which may be the same thing, but you can't argue with the result.

First Place: Dusty Baker (Reds)

Cincinnati's 13 win improvement is the largest of any team in the majors between '09 and '10.  There only significant offseason acquisitions were a 20-year-old Cuban lefty who didn't make his debut until late August and a 35-year-old journeyman shortstop who finished the season at 0.4 wins above replacement.  When Baker came to Cincinnati in '08 promising to get them back to the postseason, many probably believed he would do it with a ton of veterans acquired through free agency, as he had with Chicago and San Francisco.  Quite to the contrary, this team is built on a foundation of youth and primed to compete for several years to come.  Baker clearly had a plan from the moment he joined the organization.  As usual, he gained the trust of his players.  And, as usual, he kept his promises.  It doesn't take a whole lot of stats to prove that Baker is worthy of his fourth Manager of the Year trophy, tying him with Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox for the most all time.  But there are these.  The Reds led the NL in runs, hits, homers, total bases, RBI, average, slugging percentage, and OPS.  They also tied for the fewest errors and the highest fielding percentage.  In my opinion, it's enough to make Baker deserving of his first Connie Mack award.

Narrative Likability Factor & The San Francisco Giants

The Giants began this season looking much like they have for the entirety of Bruce Bochy's tenure, which began in 2007.  They had pitching, in abundance, led by the youthful trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, but they had a lineup composed primarily of overpaid, over-the-hill veterans who hit very little and fielded less.  After two months, Giants fans must've had an eery feeling of deja vu.  They were still in the thick of the NL West hunt, but the team seemed content wasting at-bats on Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina.  It seemed only a matter of time before the Rockies and the Dodgers simply hit their way past San Francisco, just as they had done in each of the last three years.

The first step in Brian Sabean's plan to thwart this inevitability was so obvious, one might call it shameful that he hadn't resorted to it sooner.  He recalled top prospect, Buster Posey, who had done nothing but hit ever since the Giants drafted him.  The fresh-faced Posey was almost immediately inserted in the center of the lineup.  He has been the Giants most productive hitter ever since.  But the remainder of his strategy was neither particularly obvious, nor particularly advisable.  Basically, Sabean decided he was going to the scrap heap, looking for the players other teams were giving up on.  Such players, many of them with some modicum of former glory, would be carrying a chip on their collective shoulders which might further inspire their performance, at least over the short term.  Somehow this motley crew of overweight infielders, former designated hitters, and minor-league journeymen, replete with aching backs, bad knees, and tendonitis, were able to inch the Giants into the postseason, where, suddenly, sporting one of the game's best rotations, they become a serious threat.  As part of my ongoing dissertation on Narrative Likability Factor in the 2010 playoffs, here's a look at the cast of San Francisco's EXPENDABLES:

• Andres Torres, CF:  The face of the Expendables is definitely Andres Torres, who Sabean signed to a minor-league contract prior to the 2009 season.  At the time, Torres was 30-years-old and had been through six different organizations without being granted more than 168 at-bats at the major-league level.  His most recent cup of coffee had come with the Rangers in 2005 and had lasted all of eight games.  Torres had long ago been reckoned "organizational depth."  The Giants were unenthusiastic, even following Torres's excellent performance at AAA in '08.  They gave younger, mid-level prospects like John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz, and Travis Ishikawa every opportunity to win the job that fell, finally and reluctantly, to him.  Torres responded to his first ever shot at regular playing time by becoming the most valuable center-fielder in the National League.  His 6.0 WAR trails only Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez among NL outfielders and his 21.5 UZR was best in the league.  Meanwhile, he'll take home the league minimum and won't be eligible for free agency until 2014, by which point he'll be 36.  If the Giants win the pennant, Andres Torres becomes the future subject of a Disney biopic.  You heard it here first.
• Juan Uribe, SS:  The long-time White Sox shortstop also joined the Giants prior to the '09 season.  Sabean gave him a minor-league contract and the opportunity to win a utilityman job for just 20% of the salary he'd made the previous season. Clearly, there wasn't a bidding war following a year in which Uribe missed substantial time, posted a 682 OPS, and quarreled with Ozzie Guillen.  Uribe played 300 innings at three different positions in '09 and hit well enough that the Giants resigned him this past offseason.  In May he became their everyday shortstop, potentially the fattest everyday shortstop in the history of major-league baseball, and responded my posting career highs in homers (24) and RBI (85).
• Aubrey Huff, 1B:  Huff has had a helluva ride the last few years.  After an extended tenure with the Devil Rays, Huff signed a sizable deal with the Orioles and rewarded them with a big year in 2008, when he won a Silver Slugger and even got some MVP votes.  The following year, however, he was so bad that the Orioles traded him to Detroit at the deadline for a bucket of balls and a minor-league reliever.  This offseason, as he recovered from a back injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the stretch run, nobody wanted anything to do with him and he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Giants for less than half of what he'd become accustomed to making.  Following a slow start, he has once again turned himself into an MVP candidate, leading the Giants in runs, homers, RBI, and OPS.  Of this cast of Expendables, he looks the most like a washed-up Hollywood action hero.
• Santiago Casilla, RP:  The 30-year-old reliever spent three years doing mop-up duty in Oakland before being unceremoniously released by Billy Beane during the offseason.  Across the Bay, Sabean saw something he liked.  Casilla has blossomed in San Francisco proper, becoming one of the Giants top set-up men and posting a miniscule 1.95 ERA in 55 innings of work.  A big-bodied flame-thrower without a second pitch, Casilla is basically the Latino Bobby Jenks.
• Pat Burrell, LF:  Pat the Bat also fell from grace in a hurry.  The longtime Phillie signed a sizable deal with the Rays prior to '09.  He was awful as their DH and ran amok with teammates and management to such a degree that the cash-starved Rays released him, eating about $7 Million in salary.  Sabean swooped in with a minor-league deal and Burrell eventually became the team's everyday left-fielder, swatting 18 HR and driving in 51 in half a season.  This man clearly should've never again played the outfield, but he's still good for the occasional 440 ft. moonshot.
• Ramon Ramirez, RP: Ramirez joined his sixth organization prior to his 29th birthday.  It was the fourth time he'd been traded, most notably on the other end of deals for Jorge De La Rosa and Coco Crisp.  Ramirez had been a very valuable, durable middle reliever for two seasons in Boston, accumulating a 2.74 ERA in 141 innings between '08 and '09.  But when he started slow, the Boston brass looked to unload him for a 23-year-old with a 4.09 ERA at AA.  As the Boston bullpen imploded down the stretch, it might've been nice to have the guy who has given up only two earned runs since joining the Giants (0.67 ERA).
• Jose Guillen, RF:  Perhaps feeling invincible by this point, Sabean netted Guillen in a waiver trade with the Royals in August.  Guillen is most famous for being such an unbelievable pain in the ass that the Angels asked him to leave during a season in which he had driven in over a hundred runs.  He also has one of the ten best throwing arms in major-league history (according to MLB Network).  The Giants are Guillen's tenth major-league team.  Always a tantalizing talent, Guillen never managed to make an All-Star team and had just that one lonely season of 100+ RBI.  This one has had only modest returns thusfar, as Guillen has been merely replacement level since joining San Francisco.  However, he's a notoriously streaky hitter, if he got hot in October it could be exactly the thing to spur the Giants to an unlikely pennant.
• Cody Ross, OF:  Ross was unexpectedly DFA'd by his former team, the Marlins, after two solid seasons as their centerfielder.  For the Giants, he plays against southpaws, pinch-hits, and comes in as a defensive replacement.  He's performed admirably in that capacity. 

If there has every been a gaggle of baseball grinders with something to prove, this is it.  And that makes the Giants a lovable underdog.  They are old, they are slow, occasionally to the point of provoking laughter.  They swing for the fences with great frequency and miss with greater ferocity.  They are, like Sylvester Stallone, often aggravating and painful to watch.  If the Giants advance, it will be primarily because of their stable of flamethrowing 25-year-olds.  But in order for that to happen, the 35-year-olds are going to have a grind out at least a couple runs a game and when it happens, it's cause for the kind of elation usually reserved for middle-aged men who hit homers at fantasy camp.

Narrative Likability Factor: A

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)

On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game.  Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers.  However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.

Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team.  With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in.  So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...

I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen.  Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...

ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays

By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League.  As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.

Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge.  For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:

Texas:		Tampa:
Cliff Lee	7.0	David Price	4.3
C. J. Wilson	4.4	Matt Garza	2.0
Colby Lewis	4.4	Wade Davis	0.9
Tommy Hunter	0.7	James Shields	2.2

As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best.  Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half.  Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night.  What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework.  Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October.  If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.

On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring.  However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road.  Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.

Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B.  All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start.  However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7.  As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL.  This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control.  Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB.  This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.

The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero.  They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.

I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games.  Both teams possess balanced attacks.  They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power.  In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.

Texas in 5.

ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins

The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means.  Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.

This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October.  The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter).  They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York.  And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.

Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009.  They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346).  They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen.  They have an atrocious infield defense.  They have struggled to hit southpaws.  In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad.  Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.

An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs.  The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.

In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory.  Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time.  Last year they went 4-for-4.  In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces.  If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.

Twins in 4.

NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL.  They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year).  There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September.  The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested.  They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby.  And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October.  They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.

With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath.  That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00.  I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite.  They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park.  It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday.  Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.

Phillies in 3.

NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants

On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams.  They've got nearly identical records.  They both clinched on the last day of the season.  They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs.  Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups.   They both played significantly better at home.

Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched.  These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions.  The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs.  Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season.  In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record.  Their pitching also faltered.  While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.

The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September.  Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell.  And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.

By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts.  The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings.  Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings.  Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.

Giants in 4.

Sunday Showdown Situation

It would have been easy for the Phillies to play complacently this weekend.  It has certainly been the habit of the other postseason-bound franchises.  Minnesota has been giving away games since the moment they clinched.  Even the Yankees and Rays, playing for home-field advantage and a division title, have seemed uninspired of late, as though it matters little to them where or whom they play in the ALDS.  Fair enough.  

Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it.  They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season.  If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.

Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good.  If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance.  If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.

Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164.  If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday.  The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.

Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday.  The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series.  On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.

All three of these teams are built on pitching.  San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters.  If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.

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As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season.  We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero).  Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish.  A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it.  On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision.  His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down.  Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break.  Don't be fooled.      

A Guide To September Viewing (9/6-9/16)

For those of you utilizing MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings, here are some series you might want to mark your calender for:

Monday, 9/6 - Thursday, 9/9: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

This four-game series began yesterday with a win for the Rockies, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez.  That win was Colorado's fourth in a row and brought them within 4.5 games of the Padres and 5 of the Wild Card leading Phillies.  It doesn't take a tremendous memory to recall the Rockies tendency towards September momentum.  Meanwhile, the central-leading Reds need to fight off complacency and assure they don't allow the Cardinals to climb back into the race.

Thursday, 9/9 - Sunday, 9/12: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

The Padres finally put an end to their prolonged losing streak on Monday against the Dodgers, but now hold only a game advantage over the Giants, who have won five of their last six.  Regardless of what transpires on Tuesday and Wednesday, the division lead will be on the line when these two teams face off at PETCO this weekend.  With the Padres young rotation starting to show its fatigue, it's difficult to argue that they have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups.  The climactic battle is undoubtedly the highlight, as Tim Lincecum faces Mat Latos on Sunday afternoon.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Things don't get any easier for the Friars, as they begin a ten-game road trip by heading to Denver.  At 44-22, the Rockies boast the second-best home record in the NL (behind Atlanta).  To make matters worse (for San Diego, that is), the Rockies have won eleven of the first fifteen games in their season series, including a sweep in San Diego to begin the month, so they don't exactly head to the high altitude brimming with confidence.  It's not hard to imagine them leaving Colorado in third place.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Both teams seem safely on course for postseason berths, but with seven games left against each other, the division, and home-field advantage, are still on the line.  The series kicks off with stellar pitching battle between two Cy Young contenders, C. C. Sabathia and David Price.

Tuesday, 9/14 - Thursday, 9/16: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Assuming the Sox can maintain their winning ways, having strung together seven in a row going into tonight, this could be a battle for the last remaining AL playoff spot.  The Twins are saddled with injuries, but have still managed to win at an impressive clip, recently sweeping the Rangers.  They've dominated the season series up to this point, taking ten of fifteen, but far more will be riding on this series than any that came before it.

Bailing Out Brian Sabean

The Giants front office needed some good news this morning, after Buster Olney reported in his survey of general managers that Sabean was roundly considered the most difficult to deal with.  One GM even told Olney he had difficulty getting Sabean to return his calls.  This can't possibly go over well with Giants fans, who have, for essentially half a decade, been waiting for Sabean to pull the trigger and bring in a legit middle-of-the-order hitter.  That he has not been able to pull off this task is indictment enough, but that he hasn't even been putting forth every effort to get it done is frankly unforgivable.  Shame on you, Brian Sabean.  Shame on you.

However, though it's hardly a blockbuster, the Giants did respond to this morning's report by announcing a trade.  Apparently Sabean returns Jon Daniels calls, because the two agreed to a deal which sent Bengie Molina and cash to the Rangers for Chris Ray and a player to be named later.  Unless you count the Mariners reacquisition of Russell Branyan, this is the first trade of the season involving a team (in this case both) which is gearing up for the pennant race.

As far as the Giants are concerned, this has to be considered a win.  They surprised everybody this offseason by resigning Molina and thus delaying the arrival of Buster Posey.  Molina made Sabean look good for about six weeks, but since the middle of May, a stretch of thirty games, his performance has fallen off dramatically, much as it did in the latter stages of 2009.  Over that span he's hitting .182 with a 436 OPS, 7 RBI, and two (that's right, 2) runs scored.  In doing so, he is essentially stealing at-bats from guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, Travis Ishikawa, and Nate Schierholtz, all of whom have been significantly superior hitters, in a lineup starved for runs.  This is definitely an improvement by subtraction, as it allows Posey (C) and Aubrey Huff (1B) to move back to their natural positions, thus opening up more at-bats in the outfield.

As an added bonus, the Giants receive a respectable veteran reliever in Chris Ray.  Ray has been having a minor renaissance this season in Texas, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 35 appearances.  One would expect his numbers could even improve as he moves from a bandbox to a pitcher's haven and from the AL to the NL.  Unfortunately, this helps the Giants very little, as their bullpen was already amongst the best and deepest in the league and Ray is unlikely to see much more than mop-up duty, but with many other would-be contenders (Phillies, Reds, Angels, Red Sox) in need of relief reinforcements, Sabean might be able to convert Ray into a valuable utilityman, a sixth starter, or a B-level prospect.

For the Rangers, who remain among the hottest teams in baseball following a Vladimir Guerrero driven win in Anaheim last night, this may seem a bit desperate.  Granted, Ray was also a bit extraneous in their bullpen, which is also excellent, and catcher has been an accursed position in Arlington for the last couple seasons.  However, in June, Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez combined to hit .253 with a .377 OBP, .421 SLG, 13 R, and 17 RBI.  Those aren't stellar numbers, certainly, but they are respectable for the position and easily superior to Molina's.  He has 17 RBI as well, but for the whole year!  Perhaps the move to Texas will awaken Molina's bat, but I suppose what Jon Daniels sees, regardless, is a player with a long track record success working with young pitchers, definitely a valuable skill to bring to the Rangers, who enter the second half depending heavily on unproven arms like Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Tommy Hunter.

It's possible this trade could be win-win.  However, I think the major outcome here is that Sabean will be saved from evisceration in the San Francisco press-box every time Molina grounds into a double play while Posey and/or Burrell are sitting on the bench.  When the major upside of a trade is covering the GMs ass, that's probably not a good thing for the franchise.  

What happens in April stays in April? (Part Deux)

On Opening Day I introduced you to ten "borderline contenders," teams with moderately realistic postseason ambitions, for whom I believed April baseball really did matter.  Their record wasn't really the issue, so much as unproven aspects of their roster, the performance of which might provide insight into the team's long-term prospects.  These are the teams I've been following most closely this month and though May is still a week away, I'm prepared to offer some modestly confident analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks: B

They are at the bottom of the their division at 7-9, but the D-Backs remain a very intriguing team.  They are fifth in the NL in scoring, despite the fact that their best player, Justin Upton, has gotten off to a terrible start (640 OPS).  Stephen Drew (902 OPS) and Kelly Johnson (1088 OPS) have been great, and Chris Young has shown improvement.  Arizona has power throughout the lineup, as well as a depth of talent in players like Gerardo Parra, Brandon Allen, Chris Snyder, and Cole Gillespie, which has already proved important following injuries to Miguel Montero and Conor Jacksion.

If the offense continues to rake, they D-Backs will be sneaky good, because Dan Haren isn't going to have a 5.19 ERA for very long and Edwin Jackson is looking sharp, despite modest results (1-1, 3.81 ERA).  He went eight innings against St. Louis on Wednesday and only threw 106 pitches.  His WHIP has remained low (1.23) and he's throwing in the high 90s, which makes for a pretty potent combination.  The progress of Brandon Webb and the development of Ian Kennedy weight heavily on this team.  If the rotation gets just a little deeper, the D-Backs could make the Dodgers and Rockies very uncomfortable.

What happens in April, stays in April? (Opening Day Primer)

Every year, around the middle of May, when the Yankees are sitting around or even well under .500 a few members of the New York media freak out.  They call for benchings, trades, and firings and for the obvious necessity of moving Joba Chamberlain to or from the bullpen.  Inevitably, however, Yankees management ignore the panicked Chicken Littles and by the All-Star Break they are right where the need to be, neck-and-neck with the Red Sox.

The Yankees, the Phillies, and the Rockies are all notoriously slow starters, perhaps because they deal with some cold weather in the spring, or maybe because they employ some key players - Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, etc. - who are known for having a rough time of it in April.  But these teams will not judge their seasons based on what happens in the first eight weeks.  Come August, I have no doubt they will all be in the midst of the pennant race.

New York (AL), Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Minnesota, and Los Angeles (AL), all of whom, coincidently, made the playoffs last season, can afford early inconsistencies with the knowledge that, barring catastrophic bad luck, they have all the pieces in place to be competitive over the long haul.   Many of the other  dozen or so franchises with postseason aspirations, however, will sink or swim based on what they can prove in April and May, not only in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of players stepping up to fill crucial roles.

So, while the casual fan finds April baseball games less than enthralling because they seem inconsequential in comparison with the high stakes of the NBA and NHL playoffs, I'll be closely watching these teams in the early weeks to distinguish the difference between contender and pretender...