An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (NL)

Among the many things that bother me about the All-Star voting process is the fact that the ballot does not distinguish between left, center, and right field.  It's as though MLB is implying that defense makes no difference.  In a game that has World Series home-field advantage riding on it, the NL may end up starting Jayson Werth in center field.  Don't get me wrong, Werth is a very good outfielder, but there's a reason why the Phillies prefer him in right.  It could be even worse if Werth were to be overtaken in the voting by Jason Heyward or Matt Holliday (well within the realm of possibility, as the top six oufielders are only seperated by about 200,000 votes).  We could easily end up with Ryan Braun and his -7.2 UZR/150 patrolling center-field.  With the A.L. likely handing its spots to Ichiro, Carl Crawford, and Josh Hamilton (assuming Nelson Cruz is injured), all of whom are excellent fielders with experience playing center, the N.L. finds itself with at least one immediate disadvantage.

Here's a look at my endorsements for the senior circuit:

The Bucs Savior Has Arrived?

It's only the second week of May, and already we've had a no-hitter and a perfect game.  John Buck and Mark Texeira have each connected for three homers in one night.  The Brewers fifth outfielder, Jody Gerut, hit for the cycle.  Paul Konerko is on pace for 71 HR.  The Cubs' Starlin Castro had arguably the best first game ever, going 2-for-5 with a homer, a triple, and half a dozen RBI.  Two team in the AL East are on pace to win 108 games or more.

With all the excitement of the first six weeks, naturally, a few performances are bound to get overlooked.  Which is why I'm looking to shine a little light on Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen, who the BBA voted Rookie of the Year in 2009, has not suffered any sophomore slump, unlike the winner of the BBWA's version of the award, Chris Coghlan.  McCutchen is currenty eighth in the National League in hitting, at .325, and he's second in stolen bases, with 10.  Last week he was particularly hot, with ten hits in five games.

McCutchen's performance has been especially impressive because he's a youngster hitting in the middle of a Pirates lineup that doesn't offer much protection.  Garrett Jones has been unable to duplicate the success of his rookie season.  Lastings Milledge has been dreadful.  Jeff Clement has been even worse.  There might be a temptation on McCutchen's part to press, to expand the strikezone, and to swing for the fences, but so far he hasn't been doing any of those things.  More and more, McCutchen is looking like the best Pirates player since Barry Bonds.  

Offseason Prospectus #12: The Pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates & The Curse of Barry Bonds

It's official. As of the end of the 2009 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the most storied franchises in the National League, have set a new record for ineptitude, having now failed to achieve even a .500 record for 17 consecutive seasons. Their last winning season came to an end in October of 1992, when a back-up catcher named Francisco Cabrera laced a single into left field, driving home former Pirate, Sid Bream, to end Game 7 of the NLCS. I was twelve-years-old and I'll admit it, I cried. The Pirates were my father's team. He'd spent much of his youth in Pittsburgh, and thus, as was natural, they were my team as well, at least until I was old enough to cultivate my own allegiances. As Bream slid past Mike LaValliere and Barry Bonds' throw arrived just a tad too late from left field, I broke into tears and my father said sternly, unselfconsciously quoting Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own, "There's no crying in baseball."

Obviously, I didn't know how long and how dreadful the slump would be, but even as a kid whose understanding of baseball was largely guided by card collecting, I knew that those Pirates, the team that had be the object of my first baseball infatuation, would not be the same by the time the next season began. My three favorite players were all becoming free agents. Doug Drabek, who'd be the Ace during Pittsburgh's run of three consecutive pennants, and had a career record of 92-62 with a 3.02 ERA as a Pirate, would sign with the Houston Astros. Jose Lind, the slick-fielding second-baseman who entertained fans during batting practice by jumping over teammates, joined the Kansas City Royals. And, of course, Barry Bonds, coming off a year in which he won his second MVP (and it really should've been three in a row), set a new benchmark for free agents by agreeing to a six-year, $43.75 Million contract with the San Francisco Giants.

The Pirates had had their chance to sign the man who led them to three straight pennants. The previous winter Bonds had been prepared to negotiate with the team that drafted and developed him. The Pirates chose instead to prioritize the retention of Andy Van Slyke, who was a fine player, certainly, but, well, I think we can all agree that even at his very best, Van Slyke was no Barry Bonds. And so Bonds walked and Pittsburgh baseball has been cursed ever since.

Not only have they been without a winning season, they've hardly come close. The Pirates haven't even won as many as 70 games since 2004. They've only won more than 75 twice in the last seventeen years. They've been through six managers, two of whom went on to win Manager of the Year with other teams (Jim Leyland and Jim Tracy), and six general managers. When you go back and look at these Pirates teams, you will find very little to be proud of. Since 1992 only five Pirates have recorded even one season of 100+ RBI: Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jeff King, and Kevin Young. Bay, Ramirez, Giles, King, and Reggie Sanders are the only Pirates who've hit 30+ HR in a season over that span. To put that in perspective, over the same span, the Yankees have had ten different players who achieve both marks in the same year. And the pitching side of things is even more depressing. Since '92 only one Pirate has had a season of 15 wins. It was Todd Ritchie (15-9) in 1999.

Perhaps it's too soon to label Bonds' curse equal to that of the Billy Goat or the Bambino, but consider this. The general manager who was responsible for letting Bonds walk, Ted Simmons, suffered a heart attack only months after Barry signed with the Giants. Van Slyke, expected to be Pittsburgh's star in the post-Bonds era, hurt his knee midway through '93 and never recovered. He retired in 1995, at the age of 34, after three straight injury-plagued campaigns.

Not only did the Pirates franchise fall into a period of historic suffering following Bonds exodus, even his former teammates had a horrible run of luck. Drabek went 9-18 in 1993 and despite being only 30-years-old never again showed anything resembling the form he'd displayed in Pittsburgh. Lind, just 29, played only one season in Kansas City before his cocaine addiction spiraled out of control. He was out of baseball completely within three years and spent a year in prison after being arrested driving drunk and naked through the streets of KC. Sid Bream, 31, put all he had into that final dash for home. His balky knees gave out for good in '93 and he retired in '94.

Neal Huntington took over as Pittsburgh's GM in 2007. Clearly, he had a lot of work to do, but one has to believe that by 2010 it would be reasonable for Pirates fans to expect to see some progress. Well, Bonds is still officially a free agent? Maybe it's time for the an exorcism.

Free Agents:

Matt Capps (26) RHCL

Arbitration Eligible:

Ronny Cedeno (27) SS

Zach Duke (27) LHSP

Jeff Karstens (27) RHSP

ETA 2010?:

Pedro Alvarez (23) 3B

Jeff Clement (26) 1B/C

Brad Lincoln (25) RHSP

Daniel Moskos (24) LHSP

Steve Pearce (27) 1B/OF

Jose Tabata (21) OF

Donnie Veal (25) LHSP

Neil Walker (24) 3B

One thing you can certainly say about Huntington is that he has a strategy which is crystal clear. During his three season as the helm he has been a trading fool, sending away Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, Jack Wilson, Nyjer Morgan, Adam LaRoche, Salomon Torres, Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Damaso Marte, John Grabow, Jose Bautista, Tyler Yates, Rajai Davis, Eric Hinske, and Ronny Paulino. Basically, if you're a Pirate who's older than 25 and possesses even a modicum of talent which might be marketable to another team, you'd best sign a month-to-month lease.

The good news for Pittsburgh is that via this revolving door Huntington has been able to restock a farm system which was shamefully shallow, especially considering how many high draft picks Pittsburgh has gotten over the last decade. Huntington has been particularly adept at acquiring players who were once considered top prospects but who for whatever reason fell out of favor with their original organizations; examples include Lastings Milledge (Mets/Nats), Jeff Clement (Mariners), Donnie Veal (Cubs), Delwyn Young (Dodgers), Charlie Morton (Braves), Brandon Moss (Red Sox), and Jose Tabata (Yankees). Huntington figures, I assume, that some of these guys may turn out to be as good as professional scouts once believed they would be.

More importantly, Huntington has begun making the most of Pittsburgh's inevitably high draft position. His predecessors squandered top ten picks on guys like J. J. Davis (#8, 1997), Bobby Bradley (#8, 1999), John Van Benschoten (#8, 2001), and Bryan Bullington (#1, 2002). From '93 to '02, Pittsburgh's most successful first-rounders were Kris Benson and Jermaine Allensworth (many of you are saying, "Who?"). Five first-round picks failed to even make it to the major leagues, even for a cup of coffee. For two others, a cup of coffee was all they got.

In recent years, the Pirates have finally drafted and signed some serious talent. Andrew McCutchen, the #11 pick in '05, made a splash this past season as a serious contender for Rookie of the Year (he actually won he BBA version of the award). Paul Maholm, the #8 pick in '03, has become the Pirates top starter (though that isn't saying a whole lot) by making 30 starts in four straight seasons and posting basically a league average ERA (4.45). Neil Walker (#11, 2004), Brad Lincoln (#4, 2006), Daniel Moskos (#4, 2007), and Pedro Alvarez (#2, 2008) have all performed at least decently in the minors and can be expected to arrive in Pittsburgh sometime in 2010.

The major challenge for Huntington and Pirates manager, John Russell, will be figuring out how to get their best hitters into the lineup without entirely compromising their defense. Several of Pittsburgh's most powerful prospects - Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Steven Pearce, Neil Walker - are essentially DH types. They will be prone to defensive adventures when slotted at first base and in the outfield. The two main offseason acquisitions thusfar are middle infielders, Akinori Iwamura and Bobby Crosby. When healthy, both are sure-handed and should help to solidify the infield with the help of Andy LaRoche at third base, but injuries have been an issue for both, especially Crosby, a former Rookie of the Year who fell out of favor in Oakland because of his inability to stay on the field.

McCutchen and Milledge make for two thirds of a high-octane outfield. Both are five-tool talents, although Milledge has struggled to demonstrates his skills consistently at the major-league level. The final spot will probably be manned by some combination of Jones, Pearce, and Moss, all of whom can slug a little, but none of which will flash a whole lot of leather.

On the pitching side of things, Pittsburgh surprised most of the baseball establishment by releasing their resident closer, Matt Capps, rather than offering him arbitration. Capps had a bad season in '09, but was as young and talented as any reliever in the organization. Huntington, however, figured the money he would earn in arbitration (probably as much as $5 Million) could be better spent somewhere else. The bullpen will undoubtedly be a major issue again in 2010.

The rotation, however, has some promise. While Pittsburgh still lacks a true frontline starter, the trio of Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf will provide more reliable innings than any Pirates rotation in a long while. And the organization finally has some depth to offer for the remaining spots, as Veal, Lincoln, Moskos, Morton, Kevin Hart, and Daniel McCutchen will all get a long look during Spring Training.

Having accumulated a admirable number of talented pieces, Huntington is now faced with the more daunting task of figuring out whether or not those pieces will develop as he'd hoped. That remains to be seen. Wise decisions will need to be made by the front office and the on-field staff to assist in their development.

Huntington seems to have no sense of urgency, which is probably a good thing. He will not rush his best prospects, guys like McCutchen and Alvarez. Even if everything goes exceptionally well, I don't expect 2010 will be the year the Pirates break the curse, but they could very well bypass Houston or Cincinnati (or both) and at least save themselves from a fourth consecutive last place finish.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Andrew McCutchen (R)

2B Akinor Iwamura (L)

RF Garrett Jones (L)

C Ryan Doumit (S)

3B Andy LaRoche (R)

1B Jeff Clement (L)

SS Bobby Crosby (R)

LF Lastings Milledge (R)

SP Paul Maholm (L)

SP Zach Duke (L)

SP Ross Ohlendorf (R)

SP Donnie Veal (L)

SP Kevin Hart (R)

CL Joel Hanrahan (R)

SU Steven Jackson (R)

SU Javier Lopez (L)

MR Evan Meek (R)

MR Jose Ascanio (R)

SWING Charlie Morton (R)

C Jason Jaramillo (S)

IF Ronny Cedeno (R)

IF Ramon Vazquez (L)

1B/OF Steven Pearce (R)

2B/OF Delwyn Young (S)

OF Brandon Moss (L)

BBA Awards Ballot: Rookie of the Year (NL)

The BBA Manager of the Year Awards were today. Check it out. And, thanks to some abbreviated Division Series, there is no baseball for a couple of days, so it's as good a time as any to post my thoughts on the NL Rookie of the Year. Several of the major media outlets, particularly ESPN, have been resoundingly supporting Chris Coghlan, who is a legitimate contender, and, moreover, have been creating the impression that there are only three good candidates: Coghlan, J.A. Happ, and Tommy Hanson. These are certainly three reasonable choices, but they are hardly the only ones. One should not treat ROY voting like MVP voting. There shouldn't be any bonus based on team performance. Coghlan, Happ, and Hanson played on winning franchises and that seems to be the only thing significantly separating them from another set of reasonable choices, including Garrett Jones, Casey McGehee, and Randy Wells.

First off, here are some statistics for the three primary hitting and pitching candidates (apologies for the crappy formatting):

STARTERS: Record ERA GS IP K/9 WHIP OOPS WAR
Tommy Hanson 11-4 2.89 21 128 8.18 1.18 660 2.6
J.A. Happ 10-4 2.99 23 144 6.36 1.26 735 1.8
Randy Wells 12-10 3.05 27 165 5.66 1.28 680 3.0

HITTERS: AVG OPS AB HR RBI SB RC/27 WAR
Chris Coglan .321 850 504 9 47 8 6.97 2.4
Garrett Jones .293 938 314 21 44 10 7.56 2.6
Casey McGehee .301 859 355 16 66 0 5.99 2.1
Andrew McCutchen .286 836 433 12 54 22 6.64 3.4

WAR or Wins Abover Replacement is a stat I will be leaning heavily on (although not exclusively) in my discussion of MVP, Cy Young, etc. because it takes into consideration defense, ballpark, run support, level of competition, and position scarcity.

3. Randy Wells - Chicago Cubs

Wells didn't get as much press as Happ and Hanson, but as you can see, he won just as many games and was very much their equal as a pitcher. He also got the most starts and threw the most innings (as a starter) of the trio, and led the way in WAR. Wells made 18 quality starts this season (66.7%) for the Cubs, but took a loss or a no decision in 7 of them. Perhaps more tragically, his teammates never bailed him out. He was 0-7 in starts that he allowed four or five earned runs (impressively, he never allowed more than five). Happ, on the other hand, made fourteen quality starts (60.9%) and lost only two of them. Three times he went less than six innings and still secured a win. He allowed four or more runs on five occasions and lost only two of them.

I don't mean to imply that Happ wasn't great this season and doesn't deserve serious consideration for Rookie of the Year, but I think Randy Wells was minutely better and got very little attention because his record was depressed by the sad status of his team.

2. Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves

He allowed three homers and six earned runs in his first start. After that he never allowed more than one homer and four earned runs in any of his next twenty starts. Over the course of that stretch he had an ERA of 2.59. The Braves only allowed him the throw more than 105 pitches on two occasions and yet he consistently pitched deep into ballgames (57.1 QS%) while striking out hitters in bunches (nine starts with more strikeouts than innings pitched).

Hanson stabilized the Braves rotation and was a critical factor in their late-season run (6-2, 2.56 ERA in August and September). It is possible that I'm giving him a bit of a boost because his potential is so much higher than either Wells or Happ, but the fact is, he matched or surpassed most of their numbers with less opportunities.

1. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates

This makes me at least the second BBA member to support McCutchen (see the other ballot). And, like him, I may be swayed by the fact that I watched McCutchen play as much or more than any other rookie in 2009. That said, his WAR indicates that it isn't a purely subjective opinion. McCutchen put up very good offensive totals in a putrid lineup (30th in MLB!!!) and played solid defense in center field (10 A, 2 E, -0.8 UZR [I expect this will go up significantly in his first full season]). Like most rookies, he was a bit streaky. After hitting .330 with 18 RBI in his first twenty games, the league adjusted to him a bit and he went .240 with 5 RBI in his next twenty. The good news for Pirates fans is that McCutchen also demonstrated the ability to make adjustments and he finished the season on an absolute tear, hitting .354 with 17 R, 6 SB, 9 XBH, and a 962 OPS in his final 21 games.

I certainly wouldn't blame anybody for voting for Coghlan, but, like Hanson, McCutchen really exudes that unquantifiable "entertainment factor" (i.e. 4-for-6, 4 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI on 8/1 or 1-for-3, 3 R, 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB on 8/11), You are willing to watch Pirates games just to see what he does, which is lucky for Pittsburgh, because reinforcements do not appear to be on their way.

AL ROY (If I were so inclined): 3. Brett Anderson, 2. Andrew Bailey, 1. Elvis Andrus

The Next Generation (Part Two)

In my last post I made some glowing comments about Justin Upton, all of which I stand by. But one of the things which sets Upton apart from his peers had nothing to do with his talent. He is, by my measure, perhaps the last premier prospect to be called up for good before his was ready. At the beginning of August in 2007, when he was still just 19, Upton was promoted by the Diamondbacks directly from AA after only about a year and a half of minor league service. Upton showed flashes of brilliance from the start, going 7 for his first 17 with five extra-base hits. But he also struck out a lot and was prone to extended slumps. As recently as this April, many speculated that he'd been promoted too soon (see the post "Down on the Upton" from 4/8/09). Arizona jumped the gun because they were in the thick of a pennant race with the Rockies and Dodgers, Carlos Quentin had been something of a bust (647 OPS in 81 games), and they didn't feel comfortable with a platoon of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon down the stretch (understandably).

Few teams have been willing to resort to such measures in recent years. Last season the Rays refused to bring up David Price until the rosters expanded in September, despite the fact they were in the thick of a three-team race with the Red Sox and Yankees. The Brewers, chasing their first postseason appearance in two decades, resisted the temptation to bring up Mat Gamel, even though their third basemen had combined for the worst average in the National League. The Cardinals, still in the thick of the race, refused to turn to Colby Rasmus whe Rick Ankiel got hurt.

In situations like these we have become accustomed to the phrase "reluctant to start the clock," a reference to the fact that as soon as a team puts a premier prospect on their MLB roster, they begin the countdown to arbitration and free agency. The case of Evan Longoria is now infamous. He signed a six-year deal last May, while still in the minor leagues, was promoted the next day and promptly won the Rookie of the Year and carried the Rays to the World Series. He'll earn about as much over the next five seasons as Ryan Howard makes this year, despite being arguably a more valuable commodity, because the Rays were fastidious in protecting themselves from future arbitration hearings.

Many expect similar contracts to be handed out to this year's round of "clock-starters," Matt Wieters and David Price being the most notable among them, both being recalled, predictably, around a third of the way into the season. They will be joined (or already have been) by Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson, all of whom probably deserved to begin the year in a big-league clubhouse. Here are some potential call-ups to watch:

Andrew McCutchen - CF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The bad news is that if your team is the Pirates there is very little motivation for them to bring up a McCutchen, a Steven Pearce, or a Pedro Alvarez, other than provide a little shred of hope for long-suffering fans and, as such, they will probably hold off as long as reasonably possible. McCutchen is making it hard on them at least. He's hitting .395 in his last ten AAA games for Indianapolis, and is showing speed (10 SB) and power (.500 SLG) so far this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's left-fielders have combined for a 685 OPS (13th in the NL) and the right-fielders aren't much better (732, 11th).

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansan City Royals

Another situation to watch is in Kansas City. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler have been mediocre at 1B and DH. Meanwhile, Kila Ka'aihue appears to be preparing to follow up on his monster 2008 season (.314, 37 HR, 1085 OPS). After a slow start he's built his numbers up quickly (.275, 8 HR, 956 OPS). He's a better defensive option than Jacobs or Butler, as well. The Royals desperately need offense if they are going to stay in the hunt for the AL Central. They are 12th in the AL in scoring.

Tommy Hanson - SP - Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson has a 1.49 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 90 K in 66 IP at AAA. That's sufficiently dominant, I would say. The Braves starters have been very solid (3.93 ERA), but Kensin Kawakami and Kris Medlen have to feel the fire on the back of their neck with each start.

Vin Mazarro - SP - Oakland Athletics

The A's can't hit (last in AL in runs) and they haven't pitched very well either (8th in ERA), so they don't have a lot to gain from loading their rotation with young talent. But that seems to be what Billy Beane is doing, anyway. He's already riding 21-year-olds Brett Anderson (2-5, 5.70) and Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33). Today he announced that they'll be adding the 22-year-old Mazzaro to the mix. Mazzaro has earned it. He's got a 2.38 ERA in nine starts at AAA. Expect that this is the makings of Oakland's next "Big Three," but it may not happen in 2009.

Other Prospects to Watch: Bud Norris, SP (Astros), Neftali Feliz, SP (Rangers), Fernando Martinez, OF (Mets), Justin Smoak, 1B (Rangers), Sean Rodriguez, 2B (Angels), Adrian Cardenas, 2B (Athletics)