Super Two, Super For Who? (Part Deux)

This past Wednesday, I contributed a guest blog for Inside Pulse Sports, renewing my quasi-familiar rant against the "Super Two" rule in response to disingenuous public diatribes by Brian Sabean and Mike Rizzo in the week preceding their announcements of the promotions of Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg.  Today I offer some additional notes regarding "Super Two."

• As if on cue, the Pirates GM, Neal Huntington, responded to questions about Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln on Tuesday by saying, "They're just not ready yet.  We're essentially through the arbitration window, so the reality is we're waiting for some finer finishing touches on all these guys.  We're still a ways away."  Alvarez had a 982 OPS in May.  He's third in the International League with 11 HR on the season.  Lincoln had a 2.38 ERA in May, with a ridiculous 31/4 K/BB rate.  When a GM describes player development using ambiguous terms like "finer finishing touches," it's usually because he's blowing smoke up your ass.  If the pattern holds, based on the similar masquerades by Rizzo and Sabean, we can expect Alvarez and Lincoln to both make their debuts before the end of June.
• In the last two offseasons, the cut-off for "Super Two" status has been either 139 (Carlos Gomez, '09) or 140 (Taylor Buchholz, '08) days.  Based on that timeline, we could assume that the cut-off this season will be somewhere in the middle of May.  In order to get 140 days of service this season, a player would have to be promoted by May 17.  However, this is a little misleading.  When discussion the '09 and '10 arbitration classes, we are referring to players who (in most cases) made their major-league debuts in '05, '06, and '07.  Team have become much more cognizant of the "Super Two" designation in the intervening years and their reticence would suggest that the date will get progressively later (as fewer teams are willing to promote players in the opening months).  
• In each of the last two offseasons, fifteen players qualified for "Super Two" status.  But, of course, it isn't as easy as counting the first fifteen promotions of 2010.  Many fans don't realize how often some players, especially young relievers and back-of-the-rotation starters, are shuffled back and forth to AAA.  Twins reliever Jeff Manship was recently promoted and demoted twice in less than three weeks.  Of the 146 rookies who appeared in a big-league games during the first two months of the season, 62 have already made at least one trip back to their minor-league affiliate, and many more will ride that bus before the end of June.  The roster math is made more complicated by the fact that some players who still have rookie status, have several weeks of service time accumulated from a previous season.
• When the season began, their were 60 rookies on MLB rosters.  23 of them have already been returned to the minors, at least temporarily, meaning they won't get a full year of service time in 2010.  Of the remaining 47, less than 20 have played well enough in significant roles to make themselves safe bets to last on the MLB roster for the full season.
• 86 rookies have been promoted since Opening Day.  39 of them have already suffered another demotion.  Of the remaining 47, at least 20 are filling expressly temporary roles (i.e. replacing injured regulars) and will almost certainly be returned to the minors for much of the remaining year.
• So, in conclusion, I provide you with a list of the players with the best chances of securing "Super Two" status...

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Brewers Will Win The NL Central

The conventional wisdom favors the Cardinals.  They pummeled the rest of the division throughout the second half of '09.  They resigned Matt Holiday.  They still have Pujols, Carpenter, and Wainwright.  And nobody in their division got markedly better.

I don't doubt that the Cardinals will be there right to the end and it never surprises me when Tony LaRussa edges a team into the postseason, but the Cardinals are not as complete as some would have you believe.  The backend of the rotation is an utter mystery, as Dave Duncan will be expected to work his magic once again with the likes of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.  Even if he does, if injury befalls one of the Cardinal Aces, the organization does not have a whole lot of compensatory depth.

The left side of the infield is another major weakness.  Brendan Ryan and David Freese can catch it and throw it well enough, but they'll make little to no offensive contribution.  Few teams are able to survive by punting at short and third.  The good news is that John Mozeliak has provided Tony LaRussa with a pair of his favorite things: utility infielders.  Felipe Lopez and Julio Lugo can both play pretty much everywhere and hit a little as well, so LaRussa can mix and match to his heart's content.

As a whole, beyond Pujols and Holliday, the Cardinals lineup looks a little tepid.  They really need Ryan Ludwick to regain his 2008 form, or Colby Rasmus to make good on his considerable potential.  If that happens, and they stay relatively healthy, the Cards could win the division running away, as many expect.  However, those are some sizable "ifs".

Fantastic Thoughts: "A-Rod's fantasy owners regret 'Juiced Ball Era,' admit culpability, and promise to 'move forward' with 'that kid from Vanderbilt.'" (Third Base Preview)

1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. Evan Longoria (Rays)
3. Pablo Sandoval (Giants) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
5. David Wright (Mets)

I was reading Athlon Sports fantasy preview the other day and was deeply surprise to find that they ranked A-Rod 26th overall and fourth among third-basemen.  Although I would agree that A-Rod is no longer a consensus #1 pick, as he has been for most of the last decade, I think passing on him in favor of guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, and Mark Texeira might be a premature estimation of his demise.  Do you think Mark Texeira would even draft himself in front of the guy who protects him in the order?!?  I doubt it.

That said, it's pretty easy to see the top five here as interchangeable.  Each of them offers a modest risk.  A-Rod has that amazing "self-healing" hip thing.  David Wright plays his home games on a Par 5.  Kung Fu Panda and Z-Pack have yet to prove they can produce at an elite level two years in a row.  And, Evan Longoria, well, actually, I'm having a hard time finding the chink in Longoria's armor.

6. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 1B]
7. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
8. Mark Reynolds (D-Backs) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
9. Chone Figgins (Mariners)

Get while the getting is good, because after these top two tiers, the position gets really shallow really fast.  Believe me, you don't want to get stuck with Jorge Cantu as one of your top corner infield options.

One could probably argue that Youkilis and Ramirez belong in the top tier and I'd be perfectly satisfied drafting either of them, but they are also both coming off injury shortened campaigns, which is why I rated them slightly lower.  Reynolds and Figgins are elite one-category producers (for Reynolds it's power, for Figgins it's speed), who offer solid production in other areas as well.  Reynolds can be a bit of a drag on your batting average in a roto league and in points leagues that register deductions for strikeouts, but he is also one of the game's few 30/30 threats.

10. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)
11. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [also eligible at SS]
12. Michael Young (Rangers)
13. Jorge Cantu (Marlins) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
14. Chipper Jones (Braves)

Some will be mighty surprised that Chipper doesn't even make my top ten, and I am in no way denying his ability to provide excellent production...when he's on the field.  But in this year particularly, when there are not a lot of quality three-baggers available late in the draft or on the waiver wire, I'm not comfortable having a #1 guy who's guaranteed to spend at least a couple weeks on the DL, and maybe much more.  Chipper has made as many as 140 starts since 2003.  I love the risk/reward ration if you can get him as a backup/utility option, but not as a #1.

I'm probably unusually high on Beltre.  His recent seasons certainly haven't been superior to many of the guys I've ranked below him, but I like the fact that he's moving away from the spacious Safeco Field and into a lineup which will provide him with a lot more run-producing opportunities.  This could be the year he finally has another 30 HR, 100 RBI season.

15. Alex Gordon (Royals)
16. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [will be eligible at 2B early in the season]
17. Andy LaRoche (Pirates)
18. Jake Fox (Athletics)

Grasping at straws!  So soon!  There are a full four tiers of risky young players in this preview, because several teams don't have clear starters and may even be flirting with platoons (otherwise known as "fantasy kryptonite").  These are the youngsters I'm highest on, each of whom is likely to have a full-time gig...if they stay healthy and play well.