As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux. I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job. Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars. I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati. In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011. I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.
Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees
What's new, right? Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true. For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked. After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world. Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues). The argument for Martin goes like this:
1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with. So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.
2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline. He's going to get on base. Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).
3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).
4.) He's still just 28.
(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price. I recommend this course of action in deep leagues. If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals
I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008. The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors. This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer). Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring. Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory. Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.
Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers
You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010. Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck. Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning. It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age. He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field. Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem? Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia. You want a bastion of health at this thin position? Get in line.
Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do. Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke." It just doesn't happen. His belly has disappeared. His skills haven't.
Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals
Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado. Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign. Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues. Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection. Buy with confidence.
Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers
There are different breeds of "sleepers." Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species. That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far. Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton. This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder. A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield. When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case. If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else. This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS. Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.
Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins
For some reason, people hate Delmon Young. I don't know exactly why it is. Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into. Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton. To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid. I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old. Remember what you were doing when you were 24? Who's the bigger "bust"? Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs. Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances. I wouldn't expect him to match that total. But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline. I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.
Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds
I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!" Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom. Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons. Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox. Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach. And, really, that's about all he can't hit. Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS. Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.
The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:
Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins
Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.
Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.
Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.
Here are the underrated veterans:
Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs
No more Lou Pinella. No more Derrek Lee. No more Carlos Silva. No more Milton Bradley. Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP. I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011. As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues. Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.
Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians
In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong. Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt). Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP. Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010. This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.
Showing posts with label Kila Ka'aihue. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kila Ka'aihue. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: "First base is deep, but not that deep." (Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings)
I've discussed the "three threes" strategy before, most recently in my 2010 BLOGZKRIEG! Auction Diary, but heres a quick refresher.
My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions. So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility. If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.
Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:
C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4
This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader. Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.
This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this. No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores. Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players. Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected. Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years. It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound. And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs. What can we expect from them?
It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.
1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball. If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4. But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8. Sick. Just sick.
3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI
Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats. History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next. I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010. Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.
7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS
Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis. If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him. Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position. This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause. Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010. Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point. Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP). Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington. The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts. Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.
12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR
This is where the first substantial dropoff happens. All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question. After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline. Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34. Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar. 2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008). Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year. In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position. Could it spark a comeback? With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them. In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach. On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.
16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD
These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential." Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back. At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games). He's still young. Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him. Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error. A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle. Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper. Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets. Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB). In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.
As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class. There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.
21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM
Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010. But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.
Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB
Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve. If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine. But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies. Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.
26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL
Boring, boring, and more boring. That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them. They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages. That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010. In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.
29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN
The young player grab bag. You know the deal. Lots of upside. No certainty. No guaranteed playing time. Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups. Will they survive April? That's harder to tell.
My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions. So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility. If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.
Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:
C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4
This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader. Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.
This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this. No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores. Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players. Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected. Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years. It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound. And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs. What can we expect from them?
It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.
1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball. If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4. But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8. Sick. Just sick.
3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI
Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats. History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next. I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010. Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.
7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS
Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis. If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him. Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position. This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause. Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010. Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point. Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP). Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington. The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts. Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.
12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR
This is where the first substantial dropoff happens. All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question. After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline. Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34. Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar. 2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008). Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year. In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position. Could it spark a comeback? With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them. In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach. On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.
16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD
These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential." Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back. At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games). He's still young. Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him. Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error. A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle. Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper. Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets. Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB). In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.
As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class. There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.
21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM
Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010. But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.
Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB
Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve. If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine. But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies. Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.
26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL
Boring, boring, and more boring. That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them. They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages. That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010. In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.
29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN
The young player grab bag. You know the deal. Lots of upside. No certainty. No guaranteed playing time. Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups. Will they survive April? That's harder to tell.
Friday, May 07, 2010
The Mishandled Hawaiian
Ragging on Kansas City's front office feels a bit like beating a three-legged dog...that is, if the dog had chewed off its own leg than stubbornly insisted he was better off that way. The Royals have made laughable decision after laughable decision over the course of the last fifteen years, spanning the tenures of three GMs and seven managers.
Among the most recent and the most ridiculous has been their handling of top prospect, Kila Ka'aihue. The Royals, then under the supervision of Allan Baird, drafted Ka'aihue in 2002. He was clearly an excellent find in the 15th round. During his late teens and early twenties, in the low minors, he developed power and patience, consistently improving his BB/K ratios, his OBP and SLG, as well as his defense, culminating in a bit of a breakout year in 2008, at the age of 24. In 124 games between AA and AAA, Ka'aihue hit .314 with 37 HR, 100 RBI, a 1085 OPS, and a ridiculous 104/67 BB/K ratio (seriously, that's Pujols-esque).
In a twelve-game cup of coffee in September of that year, Ka'aihue acquitted himself admirably, managing an 804 OPS, with homer and only two strikeouts in 24 plate appearances. For an apparently rebuilding franchise, this appeared to be player primed for his shot. Most teams, I think it's safe to say, put in K.C.'s position, would've handed Kila first base on Opening Day of 2009 and given him several months (at least) to prove his worthiness, much like the Marlins are doing this year with Gaby Sanchez. What's the worst that could've happened? They Royals could've won less than 65 games?
Naturally, K.C. went in another direction. They sent one of their most talented relievers, from a bullpen which has been consistently short on talent in recent year, to Florida for Mike Jacobs, an iron-gloved, lead-footed strikeout machine (with power!) who proceeded to put together a season for the ages. Jacobs hit 19 HR, but batted just .228, struck out more than once per game, and posted an OBP (.297) which was easily the worst among major-league first baseman and among the worst in all of baseball. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic, Mike Jacobs was worth less than the average AAA player and was the fifth worst player in the major leagues among players who got at least 450 plate appearances in '09.
Meanwhile, Ka'aihue, perhaps frustrated with languishing in Omaha for another season, did regress from his '08 totals, managed only 17 HR and a respectable 825 OPS. He still displayed incredible discipline, walking on 102 occasions, while striking out 85 times.
This spring, Ka'aihue, now 26-years-old, again arrived at Royals camp with almost no chance of making the big-league team. Billy Butler, Kansas City's best player, is now entrenched at first, and the strange offseason addition of retreads like Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Josh Fields made a crowded field at DH. Kila had an excellent spring, but was headed to minor-league camp by the middle of March.
On Wednesday, following injuries to Ankiel and Fields, and the demotion of Alex Gordon, the Royals final promoted Kila, who was back to raking, hitting .304 with 7 HR and a 1086 OPS at AAA in the early going.
When teams promote a prospect, what do they usually do? They "get his feet wet." They usually insert him directly in the lineup, at least for his first game with the team. It's what the Tigers did with Brennan Boesch (who's looking outstanding, by the way). It's what Texas did with Justin Smoak and Max Ramirez. It's what the Pirates did with Steven Pearce. IT'S WHAT EVERYBODY DOES.
But not the Royals. Two games later, Ka'aihue had yet to get his first MLB appearance. His sizzling bat set cooling on the Royals bench as Kansas City's patchwork roster got pummeled by the Rangers. In the late innings, the Royals mounted an unlikely comeback. And, in the top of the eighth the game was tied and the Royals had a man on second base.
So, naturally, with the game on the line, Trey Hillman sent Ka'aihue to the plate for his first major-league at-bat since September of 2008. Not only was he pinch-hitting against one of Texas's top reliever, Frank Francisco, which is rarely a recipe for success even for established players; but he was a rookie who hadn't played in game action for three days and was inserted into a critical situation in a game on the road.
Kila drove a singe down the right-field line and picked up the RBI.
He was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner.
If Ka'aihue does eventually become a competent major-league player, which I fully believe he will be, K.C.'s conservative ineptitude will have cost him at least two years of service time, not to mention the franchise millions of dollars (wasted on Jacobs, Ankiel, and the like). It seems just a matter of time before Ka'aihue sees his star rise with another club. The only question is what package of overpriced hogwash the Royals will demand in return.
One really can't imagine what Dayton Moore is hoping to accomplish with this year's Royals team, which is already eight games back in the AL Central (only Baltimore and Houston are sitting on bigger deficits). One does not build a team around spare parts like Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall. Those are pieces which should get introduced to a team already on the verge of contention. Ka'aihue needs to play everyday. As does Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo, and Alex Gordon. If the Royals are going to compete before the end of this decade, it will be because that core of relatively young, talented, inexpensive, and homegrown players are providing much of their offense.
Free Kila.
Among the most recent and the most ridiculous has been their handling of top prospect, Kila Ka'aihue. The Royals, then under the supervision of Allan Baird, drafted Ka'aihue in 2002. He was clearly an excellent find in the 15th round. During his late teens and early twenties, in the low minors, he developed power and patience, consistently improving his BB/K ratios, his OBP and SLG, as well as his defense, culminating in a bit of a breakout year in 2008, at the age of 24. In 124 games between AA and AAA, Ka'aihue hit .314 with 37 HR, 100 RBI, a 1085 OPS, and a ridiculous 104/67 BB/K ratio (seriously, that's Pujols-esque).
In a twelve-game cup of coffee in September of that year, Ka'aihue acquitted himself admirably, managing an 804 OPS, with homer and only two strikeouts in 24 plate appearances. For an apparently rebuilding franchise, this appeared to be player primed for his shot. Most teams, I think it's safe to say, put in K.C.'s position, would've handed Kila first base on Opening Day of 2009 and given him several months (at least) to prove his worthiness, much like the Marlins are doing this year with Gaby Sanchez. What's the worst that could've happened? They Royals could've won less than 65 games?
Naturally, K.C. went in another direction. They sent one of their most talented relievers, from a bullpen which has been consistently short on talent in recent year, to Florida for Mike Jacobs, an iron-gloved, lead-footed strikeout machine (with power!) who proceeded to put together a season for the ages. Jacobs hit 19 HR, but batted just .228, struck out more than once per game, and posted an OBP (.297) which was easily the worst among major-league first baseman and among the worst in all of baseball. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic, Mike Jacobs was worth less than the average AAA player and was the fifth worst player in the major leagues among players who got at least 450 plate appearances in '09.
Meanwhile, Ka'aihue, perhaps frustrated with languishing in Omaha for another season, did regress from his '08 totals, managed only 17 HR and a respectable 825 OPS. He still displayed incredible discipline, walking on 102 occasions, while striking out 85 times.
This spring, Ka'aihue, now 26-years-old, again arrived at Royals camp with almost no chance of making the big-league team. Billy Butler, Kansas City's best player, is now entrenched at first, and the strange offseason addition of retreads like Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Josh Fields made a crowded field at DH. Kila had an excellent spring, but was headed to minor-league camp by the middle of March.
On Wednesday, following injuries to Ankiel and Fields, and the demotion of Alex Gordon, the Royals final promoted Kila, who was back to raking, hitting .304 with 7 HR and a 1086 OPS at AAA in the early going.
When teams promote a prospect, what do they usually do? They "get his feet wet." They usually insert him directly in the lineup, at least for his first game with the team. It's what the Tigers did with Brennan Boesch (who's looking outstanding, by the way). It's what Texas did with Justin Smoak and Max Ramirez. It's what the Pirates did with Steven Pearce. IT'S WHAT EVERYBODY DOES.
But not the Royals. Two games later, Ka'aihue had yet to get his first MLB appearance. His sizzling bat set cooling on the Royals bench as Kansas City's patchwork roster got pummeled by the Rangers. In the late innings, the Royals mounted an unlikely comeback. And, in the top of the eighth the game was tied and the Royals had a man on second base.
So, naturally, with the game on the line, Trey Hillman sent Ka'aihue to the plate for his first major-league at-bat since September of 2008. Not only was he pinch-hitting against one of Texas's top reliever, Frank Francisco, which is rarely a recipe for success even for established players; but he was a rookie who hadn't played in game action for three days and was inserted into a critical situation in a game on the road.
Kila drove a singe down the right-field line and picked up the RBI.
He was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner.
If Ka'aihue does eventually become a competent major-league player, which I fully believe he will be, K.C.'s conservative ineptitude will have cost him at least two years of service time, not to mention the franchise millions of dollars (wasted on Jacobs, Ankiel, and the like). It seems just a matter of time before Ka'aihue sees his star rise with another club. The only question is what package of overpriced hogwash the Royals will demand in return.
One really can't imagine what Dayton Moore is hoping to accomplish with this year's Royals team, which is already eight games back in the AL Central (only Baltimore and Houston are sitting on bigger deficits). One does not build a team around spare parts like Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall. Those are pieces which should get introduced to a team already on the verge of contention. Ka'aihue needs to play everyday. As does Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo, and Alex Gordon. If the Royals are going to compete before the end of this decade, it will be because that core of relatively young, talented, inexpensive, and homegrown players are providing much of their offense.
Free Kila.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #30: The Kansas City Royals
Last, but not...well, actually...
There are a number of baseball franchises which vie for the title of "Best Punchline." The Pirates recently set a record of prolonged futility by finishing below .500 for seventeen consecutive seasons. The Nationals/Expos have made just one playoff appearance in their 41 year history. And, of course, there are the accursed Cubs, who championship drought recently extended beyond the century mark.
But for pure sporting incompetence, it's hard to argue with the Kansas City Royals. They won the World Series in 1985 and for a few years thereafter were contenders in the AL West. Since the late eighties, however, the Royals have managed a winning record only three times (once during the strike-shortened '94 season) and have not returned to the postseason since their '85 championship.
In recent years, they have grown more and more woeful, as they've featured eight managers in their past eight seasons and cracked 100 losses four times. In the tenure of current General Manager, Dayton Moore, they have become a kind of anachronism, a franchise which seems steadfastly determined to defy the evolutions of their industry...and not in a good way.
In 2009, FanGraphs ranked 154 players according to Wins Above Replacement. Of those 154, only eight finished below replacement level. And the man who finished 154th was almost a full win worse than the guy at 153 (Aubrey Huff). That man was Yuniesky Betancourt, the former Mariner shortstop who was Moore's primary 2009 acquisition. Betancourt wasn't just the worst player in baseball, he was the worst player by a long shot.
For Dayton Moore, this is just the most dramatic instance of his stubbornly standing in defiance of "new-fangled" statistical metrics. This offseason alone he signed three players who score extraordinarily low in categories like WAR, UZR, and OPS: Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Rick Ankiel. And for this reason he's become the scourge of sabermetric analysts like Rob Neyer, who happens to also be a Royals fan.
But while Moore is eviscerated by sportswriters (in this rare instance, the sabermetricians and the traditionalists seem mostly in agreement) he has the full endorsement of Kansas City ownership, which recently extended his contract through the 2013 season. Unfortunately, that probably assures that Royals fans are looking at four more years of absolutely dismal baseball.
There are a number of baseball franchises which vie for the title of "Best Punchline." The Pirates recently set a record of prolonged futility by finishing below .500 for seventeen consecutive seasons. The Nationals/Expos have made just one playoff appearance in their 41 year history. And, of course, there are the accursed Cubs, who championship drought recently extended beyond the century mark.
But for pure sporting incompetence, it's hard to argue with the Kansas City Royals. They won the World Series in 1985 and for a few years thereafter were contenders in the AL West. Since the late eighties, however, the Royals have managed a winning record only three times (once during the strike-shortened '94 season) and have not returned to the postseason since their '85 championship.
In recent years, they have grown more and more woeful, as they've featured eight managers in their past eight seasons and cracked 100 losses four times. In the tenure of current General Manager, Dayton Moore, they have become a kind of anachronism, a franchise which seems steadfastly determined to defy the evolutions of their industry...and not in a good way.
In 2009, FanGraphs ranked 154 players according to Wins Above Replacement. Of those 154, only eight finished below replacement level. And the man who finished 154th was almost a full win worse than the guy at 153 (Aubrey Huff). That man was Yuniesky Betancourt, the former Mariner shortstop who was Moore's primary 2009 acquisition. Betancourt wasn't just the worst player in baseball, he was the worst player by a long shot.
For Dayton Moore, this is just the most dramatic instance of his stubbornly standing in defiance of "new-fangled" statistical metrics. This offseason alone he signed three players who score extraordinarily low in categories like WAR, UZR, and OPS: Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Rick Ankiel. And for this reason he's become the scourge of sabermetric analysts like Rob Neyer, who happens to also be a Royals fan.
But while Moore is eviscerated by sportswriters (in this rare instance, the sabermetricians and the traditionalists seem mostly in agreement) he has the full endorsement of Kansas City ownership, which recently extended his contract through the 2013 season. Unfortunately, that probably assures that Royals fans are looking at four more years of absolutely dismal baseball.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Fantastic Thoughts (September Call-Ups)
As we near September and roster expansion, here are a few players to keep on your watchlist. Not only is it necessary to be vigilant for players who could be sleepers in next season's draft, but productivity for unheralded prospects can help you down the stretch, especially in head-to-head leagues. You won't find any discussion of Jason Heyward, Justin Smoak, or Stephen Strasburg here. I assume you already know they are must-have prospects in keeper leagues and middle-round draft picks next spring. I more concerned here with guys your leaguemates are likely to be completely ignorant of and who represent late-round steals.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
Monday, June 01, 2009
The Next Generation (Part Two)
In my last post I made some glowing comments about Justin Upton, all of which I stand by. But one of the things which sets Upton apart from his peers had nothing to do with his talent. He is, by my measure, perhaps the last premier prospect to be called up for good before his was ready. At the beginning of August in 2007, when he was still just 19, Upton was promoted by the Diamondbacks directly from AA after only about a year and a half of minor league service. Upton showed flashes of brilliance from the start, going 7 for his first 17 with five extra-base hits. But he also struck out a lot and was prone to extended slumps. As recently as this April, many speculated that he'd been promoted too soon (see the post "Down on the Upton" from 4/8/09). Arizona jumped the gun because they were in the thick of a pennant race with the Rockies and Dodgers, Carlos Quentin had been something of a bust (647 OPS in 81 games), and they didn't feel comfortable with a platoon of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon down the stretch (understandably).
Few teams have been willing to resort to such measures in recent years. Last season the Rays refused to bring up David Price until the rosters expanded in September, despite the fact they were in the thick of a three-team race with the Red Sox and Yankees. The Brewers, chasing their first postseason appearance in two decades, resisted the temptation to bring up Mat Gamel, even though their third basemen had combined for the worst average in the National League. The Cardinals, still in the thick of the race, refused to turn to Colby Rasmus whe Rick Ankiel got hurt.
In situations like these we have become accustomed to the phrase "reluctant to start the clock," a reference to the fact that as soon as a team puts a premier prospect on their MLB roster, they begin the countdown to arbitration and free agency. The case of Evan Longoria is now infamous. He signed a six-year deal last May, while still in the minor leagues, was promoted the next day and promptly won the Rookie of the Year and carried the Rays to the World Series. He'll earn about as much over the next five seasons as Ryan Howard makes this year, despite being arguably a more valuable commodity, because the Rays were fastidious in protecting themselves from future arbitration hearings.
Many expect similar contracts to be handed out to this year's round of "clock-starters," Matt Wieters and David Price being the most notable among them, both being recalled, predictably, around a third of the way into the season. They will be joined (or already have been) by Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson, all of whom probably deserved to begin the year in a big-league clubhouse. Here are some potential call-ups to watch:
Andrew McCutchen - CF - Pittsburgh Pirates
The bad news is that if your team is the Pirates there is very little motivation for them to bring up a McCutchen, a Steven Pearce, or a Pedro Alvarez, other than provide a little shred of hope for long-suffering fans and, as such, they will probably hold off as long as reasonably possible. McCutchen is making it hard on them at least. He's hitting .395 in his last ten AAA games for Indianapolis, and is showing speed (10 SB) and power (.500 SLG) so far this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's left-fielders have combined for a 685 OPS (13th in the NL) and the right-fielders aren't much better (732, 11th).
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansan City Royals
Another situation to watch is in Kansas City. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler have been mediocre at 1B and DH. Meanwhile, Kila Ka'aihue appears to be preparing to follow up on his monster 2008 season (.314, 37 HR, 1085 OPS). After a slow start he's built his numbers up quickly (.275, 8 HR, 956 OPS). He's a better defensive option than Jacobs or Butler, as well. The Royals desperately need offense if they are going to stay in the hunt for the AL Central. They are 12th in the AL in scoring.
Tommy Hanson - SP - Atlanta Braves
Tommy Hanson has a 1.49 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 90 K in 66 IP at AAA. That's sufficiently dominant, I would say. The Braves starters have been very solid (3.93 ERA), but Kensin Kawakami and Kris Medlen have to feel the fire on the back of their neck with each start.
Vin Mazarro - SP - Oakland Athletics
The A's can't hit (last in AL in runs) and they haven't pitched very well either (8th in ERA), so they don't have a lot to gain from loading their rotation with young talent. But that seems to be what Billy Beane is doing, anyway. He's already riding 21-year-olds Brett Anderson (2-5, 5.70) and Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33). Today he announced that they'll be adding the 22-year-old Mazzaro to the mix. Mazzaro has earned it. He's got a 2.38 ERA in nine starts at AAA. Expect that this is the makings of Oakland's next "Big Three," but it may not happen in 2009.
Other Prospects to Watch: Bud Norris, SP (Astros), Neftali Feliz, SP (Rangers), Fernando Martinez, OF (Mets), Justin Smoak, 1B (Rangers), Sean Rodriguez, 2B (Angels), Adrian Cardenas, 2B (Athletics)
Few teams have been willing to resort to such measures in recent years. Last season the Rays refused to bring up David Price until the rosters expanded in September, despite the fact they were in the thick of a three-team race with the Red Sox and Yankees. The Brewers, chasing their first postseason appearance in two decades, resisted the temptation to bring up Mat Gamel, even though their third basemen had combined for the worst average in the National League. The Cardinals, still in the thick of the race, refused to turn to Colby Rasmus whe Rick Ankiel got hurt.
In situations like these we have become accustomed to the phrase "reluctant to start the clock," a reference to the fact that as soon as a team puts a premier prospect on their MLB roster, they begin the countdown to arbitration and free agency. The case of Evan Longoria is now infamous. He signed a six-year deal last May, while still in the minor leagues, was promoted the next day and promptly won the Rookie of the Year and carried the Rays to the World Series. He'll earn about as much over the next five seasons as Ryan Howard makes this year, despite being arguably a more valuable commodity, because the Rays were fastidious in protecting themselves from future arbitration hearings.
Many expect similar contracts to be handed out to this year's round of "clock-starters," Matt Wieters and David Price being the most notable among them, both being recalled, predictably, around a third of the way into the season. They will be joined (or already have been) by Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson, all of whom probably deserved to begin the year in a big-league clubhouse. Here are some potential call-ups to watch:
Andrew McCutchen - CF - Pittsburgh Pirates
The bad news is that if your team is the Pirates there is very little motivation for them to bring up a McCutchen, a Steven Pearce, or a Pedro Alvarez, other than provide a little shred of hope for long-suffering fans and, as such, they will probably hold off as long as reasonably possible. McCutchen is making it hard on them at least. He's hitting .395 in his last ten AAA games for Indianapolis, and is showing speed (10 SB) and power (.500 SLG) so far this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's left-fielders have combined for a 685 OPS (13th in the NL) and the right-fielders aren't much better (732, 11th).
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansan City Royals
Another situation to watch is in Kansas City. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler have been mediocre at 1B and DH. Meanwhile, Kila Ka'aihue appears to be preparing to follow up on his monster 2008 season (.314, 37 HR, 1085 OPS). After a slow start he's built his numbers up quickly (.275, 8 HR, 956 OPS). He's a better defensive option than Jacobs or Butler, as well. The Royals desperately need offense if they are going to stay in the hunt for the AL Central. They are 12th in the AL in scoring.
Tommy Hanson - SP - Atlanta Braves
Tommy Hanson has a 1.49 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 90 K in 66 IP at AAA. That's sufficiently dominant, I would say. The Braves starters have been very solid (3.93 ERA), but Kensin Kawakami and Kris Medlen have to feel the fire on the back of their neck with each start.
Vin Mazarro - SP - Oakland Athletics
The A's can't hit (last in AL in runs) and they haven't pitched very well either (8th in ERA), so they don't have a lot to gain from loading their rotation with young talent. But that seems to be what Billy Beane is doing, anyway. He's already riding 21-year-olds Brett Anderson (2-5, 5.70) and Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33). Today he announced that they'll be adding the 22-year-old Mazzaro to the mix. Mazzaro has earned it. He's got a 2.38 ERA in nine starts at AAA. Expect that this is the makings of Oakland's next "Big Three," but it may not happen in 2009.
Other Prospects to Watch: Bud Norris, SP (Astros), Neftali Feliz, SP (Rangers), Fernando Martinez, OF (Mets), Justin Smoak, 1B (Rangers), Sean Rodriguez, 2B (Angels), Adrian Cardenas, 2B (Athletics)
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