The first round of fantasy mags has hit the stands and mainstream sources like ESPN, CBS, etc. have started publishing their preseason rankings. Obviously, much will change between now and Opening Day, but I'd like to highlight some relative injustices I'm seeing in my early perusal of these resources. You can also check out my preseason rankings.
Brett Gardner, LF (Yankees) v. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (Red Sox)
After posting a WAR of 5.4 in his first full season - that's good for 5th among AL outfielders, by the way - I don't think anybody would deny that Brett Gardner is a better all-around player than Jacoby Ellsbury. I'll acknowledge, however, that in fantasy there are occasions when it doesn't pay to take the better player and those occasions usually do involve guys like Ellsbury who have the potential to pile up stolen bases at a league-leading clip. This isn't one of those occasions.
Ellsbury is nearly unanimously ranked as a top twenty outfielder (top five in the AL) while Gardner barely breaks the top 50. The Sporting News has Ellsbury valued at double the price of Gardner ($30 v. $15) in AL-only auctions. Here's a few reason why that's ludicrous, starting with the stats for each of their best seasons:
Jacoby Ellsbury '09: .301/.355/.415 - 94 R - 8 HR - 60 RBI - 70 SB - 624 AB
Brett Gardner '10: .277/.383/.379 - 97 R - 5 HR - 47 RBI - 47 SB - 477 AB
As you can see, Gardner's OBP skills aid him in piling up runs at a significantly higher rate than Ellbury, while his HR, RBI, and SB rates are comparable (if Gardner had gotten 624 AB he was on pace for 7 HR, 62 RBI, 62 SB).
600+ ABs are not assured for either of these players, but if I had to bet on one of them reaching that mark, I'd actually take Gardner. Coming off a year in which Ellsbury was riddled with injuries and immersed in clubhouse controversies, there is no guarantee he remains an everyday player. Mike Cameron is still hanging around. Darnell McDonald will be looking to steal at-bats. And Ryan Kalish is a superior offensive talent who proved in the second-half of 2010 that he's on the verge of being major-league ready. While many assume Gardner will again be submitted to a platoon (presumably with Andruw Jones), he actually fared okay against lefties in 2010 (725 OPS). In all likelihood, Jones will frequently spell Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, or Nick Swisher instead.
What you're looking at is a pair of speedy 27-year-old outfielders, both of whom hit in loaded lineups and have the permanent green light. I can certainly imagine Ellsbury having a solid season and returning to his '09 production, but I think Gardner is, at the very least, comparable and could be available for as little as half the price.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Gardner #29, Ellsbury #30
Curtis Granderson, CF (Yankees) v. Austin Jackson, CF (Tigers)
Remember last winter's blockbuster. Here's how that worked out, based on 2010 WAR:
Yankees: Curtis Granderson (3.6)
Tigers: Austin Jackson (3.8), Max Scherzer (3.7), Daniel Schlereth (0.1)
D-Backs: Ian Kennedy (2.4), Daniel Hudson (2.0), Edwin Jackson (1.8)
Yes, the early returns have been much better for Arizona and Detroit, especially when you consider that the combined salaries of Scherzer, Kennedy, Hudson, and Schlereth are less than what Granderson will make in 2011.
That aside, however, it does not make any sense to rank Austin Jackson ahead of Curtis Granderson on your fantasy draft board. Let's take a look at their second-half splits for 2010, after Grandy got healthy and the league adjusted to the Detroit rookies:
Granderson: .253/.338/.523 - 44 R - 17 HR - 43 RBI - 5 SB - 241 AB
Jackson: .285/.336/.397 - 51 R - 3 HR - 21 RBI - 13 SB - 305 AB
Jackson posted the highest BABIP in the majors (.396) and the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL (27.5%), both of which suggest he's a prime candidate for the dreaded sophomore slump. Meanwhile, Granderson will hit in the midst of a thunderous lineup in a ballpark tailored for left-handed power. Given a fully healthy 2011 campaign, he's 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank, with the potential for more.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Granderson #19, Jackson #52
Garrett Jones, 1B/OF (Pirates) v. Basically Anybody (Anywhere)
He's consistently making the top 60 among outfielders (the Sporting News has him as high as #40) even though he was hardly a replacement level player in 2010 (0.1 WAR). His power (21 HR) makes him fantasy relevant, but only if he's in the lineup...and Pittsburgh seems to have realized his limitations. They signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz during the offseason and they'll bring younger, more versatile players like John Bowker, Steve Pearce, Jeff Clement, and Alex Presley to camp. The only way Garrett Jones gets 500 AB this year is if he gets traded to the Mariners.
Meanwhile, guys like Josh Willingham, Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Brad Hawpe, and Cody Ross are cheap sources of power with similar skill sets and substantially more upside.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Willingham #45, Gomes #67, Joyce #72, Ross #74, Burrell #76, Jones #90
Chris Young, CF (D-Backs) v. Drew Stubbs, CF (Reds)
Nobody knows what to do with these guys, both of whom are coming off 20/20 seasons and have real 30/30 potential, but are also batting average drains. I've seen them both ranked as high as 12-15 and as low as 40-45.
Finally in the "post-hype" stage of his career, Young was very quietly a top 15 fantasy outfielder in 2010. Entering his fifth full season, Young is that magical age: 27. The age alone is certainly not enough to assure his ascendence among the elite fantasy outfielders. However, there are other positive indicators. He posted a career low strikeout rate in 2010, while keeping his walk rate at a decent level (11.1%), which led to a substantial improvement in OBP (.341). Young will probably always be a free swinger and may never hit .280, but his other talents can shine so long as he maintains this level of patience.
Stubbs started the 2010 season slow and nearly lost his job, but he came on very strong after the break and was on fire for most of the last two months. Over a 47 game stretch he hit .305 with 9 HR, 11 steals, and a 944 OPS. I see more streakiness in Stubbs future. It's a fairly common problem for young power hitters. Like the young Young, Stubbs has not figured out the strikezone. Only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds struck out at a greater rate (32.7%) among NL hitters and they, of course, hit more homers and drew a lot more walks.
Stubbs played college ball and then spent several seasons in the minors, so he's only about a year younger than Young and shouldn't suffer as drastic growing pains (Young's development included a short return to AAA in 2009), but there will be some.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Young #14, Stubbs #28
Showing posts with label Chris Young. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris Young. Show all posts
Friday, January 28, 2011
Sunday, June 20, 2010
A few potential All-Stars who might surprise you...
There are certain to be a few first-time All-Stars this season. Ubaldo Jimenez, who has to be the current favorite to start the game for the NL, will certainly get his first selection thanks to a couple of history-making months. Rookie outfielder, Jason Heyward, is currently among the leading vote-getters in the NL outfield, and should be destined for selection even if he isn't voted in by the fans. Also much-lauded is the AL co-leader in homeruns, Jose Bautista.
There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media. I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.
Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers
Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances. Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League. He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since. Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.
Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants
Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April. Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games. Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race. He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.
Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months. His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support. Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team. The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either. Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young. His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.
Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs stink. They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons. Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better. All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.
Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers
Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year. He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense. He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup. With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.
Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks
Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season. The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and David Wright. It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year. He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility. Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average. He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past. He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).
There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media. I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.
Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers
Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances. Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League. He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since. Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.
Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants
Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April. Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games. Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race. He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.
Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months. His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support. Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team. The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either. Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young. His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.
Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs stink. They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons. Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better. All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.
Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers
Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year. He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense. He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup. With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.
Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks
Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season. The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and David Wright. It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year. He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility. Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average. He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past. He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux's 2010 Hot List
I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day. Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March. This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors. If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #23: The Arizona Diamondbacks
With the combo of Manny and Big Papi forcefully divorced, and, to some extent, ravaged by the tides of time, it is logical to ask the question afresh, what is the most fearsome tandem in baseball? Texeira & A-Rod would no doubt be the choice of a vocal minority. But, good as they are, do they really match up to Pujols & Holliday, Mauer & Morneau, Utley & Howard, or, my personal favorite, Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder? All have a legitimate claim, and not too far back of them are duos like Lance Berkman & Carlos Lee, Victor Martinez & Kevin Youkilis, and Derrek Lee & Aramis Ramirez.
I predict, however, assuming the D-Backs can retain their investments, within the next year or two, there will again be a clear answer to that question, as Justin Upton & Mark Reynolds develop into the premier run-producing duo of the twenty-teens. In 2009 the pair broke out in a major way, combining for 70 HR, 188 RBI, 44 SB, and, just to keep their youth in perspective, 360 K. Tremendous production, despite the fact that Upton missed a month in the middle of the season and both appeared weary down the stretch (706 September OPS for Upton, 610 for Reynolds). But inconsistency is to be expected from a pair whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyer's (47).
Upton, still only 22-years-old, seems (knock on wood) destined to become the toast of his generation, his career path thusfar comparing favorably to guys like Griffey, Mays, Aaron, and Bonds. When I watch Upton, I can't help but see a young, right-handed Bonds: the upright stance, the short, lightning-quick stroke, and, perhaps most of all, the eery calm. Reynolds's aspirations aren't quiet so high, but it is reasonable to expect his potential as a hitter falls somewhere between Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, not too shabby in either case, and he has much more speed and, at least for now, plays a scarcer position than either of them.
The D-Backs will begin the season with high expectations. It is reasonable to believe that this club is at least as good as the one that made the playoffs in 2007, as it is still filled with players who have not peaked. That, combined with the fact that nobody in the NL West got significantly better this offseason, makes Arizona a darkhorse contender, albeit one that will need a fair number of good breaks.
I predict, however, assuming the D-Backs can retain their investments, within the next year or two, there will again be a clear answer to that question, as Justin Upton & Mark Reynolds develop into the premier run-producing duo of the twenty-teens. In 2009 the pair broke out in a major way, combining for 70 HR, 188 RBI, 44 SB, and, just to keep their youth in perspective, 360 K. Tremendous production, despite the fact that Upton missed a month in the middle of the season and both appeared weary down the stretch (706 September OPS for Upton, 610 for Reynolds). But inconsistency is to be expected from a pair whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyer's (47).
Upton, still only 22-years-old, seems (knock on wood) destined to become the toast of his generation, his career path thusfar comparing favorably to guys like Griffey, Mays, Aaron, and Bonds. When I watch Upton, I can't help but see a young, right-handed Bonds: the upright stance, the short, lightning-quick stroke, and, perhaps most of all, the eery calm. Reynolds's aspirations aren't quiet so high, but it is reasonable to expect his potential as a hitter falls somewhere between Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, not too shabby in either case, and he has much more speed and, at least for now, plays a scarcer position than either of them.
The D-Backs will begin the season with high expectations. It is reasonable to believe that this club is at least as good as the one that made the playoffs in 2007, as it is still filled with players who have not peaked. That, combined with the fact that nobody in the NL West got significantly better this offseason, makes Arizona a darkhorse contender, albeit one that will need a fair number of good breaks.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.
Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams
My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.
Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams
I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.
Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams
I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.
Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams
Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.
Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams
Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.
Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams
The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.
Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams
Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.
J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams
The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.
Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams
My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.
Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams
I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.
Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams
I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.
Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams
Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.
Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams
Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.
Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams
The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.
Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams
Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.
J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams
The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Soulful Second Season
Hard to believe that the Cubs were the first National League team to secure a spot in the National League Division Series. Harder still to believe that neither San Diego nor New York will be there. I'm past predictions.
Prince Fielder has rocket-launched his final moonshot of 2007. Curtis Granderson has chased down his final scorching line drive. Russell Martin is finally, hopefully, going to give his weary knees a rest. Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and Barry Bonds are all headed home. Don't fret, this is an opportunity. Get to know best of the rest. Here's your guide to the most soulful players still in contention.
Mike Lowell - 3B - Boston Red Sox
Two years ago, after a season which has proved to be an utter aberration, the Marlins made Mike Lowell a throw-in, alongside Josh Beckett, in the trade that brought them Hanley Ramirez. One cannot fault them for this move, however, I doubt anybody in Florida (or Boston, for that matter) would have predicted that Lowell would finish any season with more RBIs (124) and a higher batting average (.324) than Miguel Cabrera. His RBIs set a Red Sox record. He made Manny Ramirez' late-season DL stint largely inconsequential.
Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks
He finished only three stolen bases short of becoming the first rookie to ever join the 30/30 club. Even if he had made it, he probably wouldn't have won the Rookie of the Year because of Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun. He had five multi-homer games. He is the best bet to have a Prince Fielder-like sophomore season. He might start as early as Wednesday. Every facet of his game improved as the season progressed.
Livan Hernandez - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
He's easily forgotten these days. Casual fans will be surprised to see him when he trots out to the mound in Game 3 of the NLDS between Chicago and Arizona. He's been "reduced" to nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter on what was supposed to be a middle-of-the-division team, a team that failed to score as many runs as their opponents, but somehow won more games than anybody in the National League. But he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter who's logged 200 innings in ten consecutive seasons, and 11 or more wins for eight in a row. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter who has a 4-0 record and a 1.99 ERA in the NLDS and NLCS, a NLCS MVP, and a World Series MVP. He was undefeated in the postseason (6-0) until the World Series in 2002. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a career 2.96 ERA in 9 starts at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Livan has quietly become one of the most reliable pitchers of his generation. He never tires, and somehow he always seems to be able to reach back for something extra when it matters most.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Boston Red Sox
Nobody east of McCovey Cove has had more attention directed his way during the 2007 season than Dice-K. In addition to the media frenzy, Dice-K was introduced to a different theory of pitching, a different size of ball, and, let us not forget, a different level of hitter in the world's best baseball division, the AL East. His performance was very uneven during his rookie year, but he did achieve 15 wins, 200 Ks, and 200 innings (only six other pitchers managed as much), marks that would have been more than sufficient for any other rookie. During one six-start stretch in June and July, Dice-K had a 1.29 ERA with 51 K in 42 IP. When Dice-K stays in the strikezone, away from the big inning, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the postseason. One thing is for certain, he is just as exciting as advertised.
Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs
Fonzi began the season in much the same way as fellow Hundred Million Dollar Men, Barry Zito and Vernon Wells. Unlike BZ and VW, Soriano followed his .270/0 HR April by batting .303 with 33 HR the rest of the way, including a historic September which carried the Cubbies into the postseason. If his quad injury hadn't cost him his speed and much of August, Soriano would be on pace to match most of the gaudy numbers from 2006 that gained him his massive contract.
Chone Figgins - Anywhere & Everywhere - Los Angeles Angels
On the morning of May 31, Chone was batting .133. His manager had been forced to sit him for two important games against Seattle in favor of a power-hitting utilityman, Robb Quinlan, and promising rookie infielder, Erick Aybar. The Angels won both games. If Chone wanted to start on a contending team, he was going to have to step it up. He had three hits on May 31 and three more on June 1. From that point until September 22, a span of 83 games, he hit .405, scored 69 runs, and stole 37 bases. He also started at four different positions. Despite playing only 115 games, he finished with some of the best overall numbers of his career. His play-anywhere, do-anything, take-whatever-they'll-give-you-and-more style epitomizes Scioscia's Angels.
Kenny Lofton - LF - Cleveland Indians
The active triples and stolen base leader, K-Lo, has played for nine different teams in the past six years, a stretch which inspired a DHL commercial and makes Reggie Sanders' career seem like the picture of stability. Like Sanders, Lofton's transience is inexplicable. During those six seasons he's batted .293, averaged 80 runs and 24 stolen bases per year, and made four trips to the postseason, all while playing solid defense and being an unmistakably positive veteran presence in the clubhouse. Now, he's finally back where he belongs, in Cleveland, where he was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner between '93 and '99. No Indian will be more eager to break Cleveland's 59-year World Series drought. Lofton has 349 postseason at-bats. The rest of the Indians have combined for 61. Since acquiring Lofton, the Indians are 54-35. Kenny probably won't be making starts against tough lefties this October, but against righthanders this season Lofton is batting .313 with an 838 OPS, so you can bet he'll be the left-fielder against the likes of Clemens, Wang, and Mussina in the Division Series.
Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs
Like Alfonso, D-Lee got hot at the right time. He followed his first-half power outage (6 HR) by hitting as many homers (17 HR) after the All-Star Break as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, or Miguel Cabrera. He hit .365 in September, which bodes well for October. D-Lee is the face of the Cubs, the "new look" Cubs. Ironically, as a Marlin, he was a big part of destroying the Cubs chances the last time they made it this far, in 2003. Hopefully he can impart that never-say-die attitude upon his new teammates, many of whom have little or no postseason experience.
C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians
Just don't miss his start on Thursday afternoon. Baseball's best pitcher facing baseball's best lineup in a playoff situation. This is when the soul rises.
Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies
On July 8th, at a time when neither team could really imagine themselves facing off in the postseason, the Phillies were playing the Rockies. In the third inning, with the Rockies leading 4-2, driving rain and gusty wind forced a delay. The Colorado grounds crew had trouble with the tarp, one member being tossed around and dragged by sudden bursts of powerful high-altitude winds. Jimmy Rollins led his entire team out onto the field and, rainsoaked, they helped the opposing grounds crew secure the tarp. At the end of the delay the Phillies mounted a comeback, led by Rollins going 3-for-3 with 2 RBI. Not enough can possible be said about Rollins' historic MVP season, in which, among other things, he will play upwards of 165 games at the sports' most demanding position. He has led the Phillies wire-to-wire and into the playoffs, just as he predicted. Don't expect this to be the last of his heroics.
Prince Fielder has rocket-launched his final moonshot of 2007. Curtis Granderson has chased down his final scorching line drive. Russell Martin is finally, hopefully, going to give his weary knees a rest. Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and Barry Bonds are all headed home. Don't fret, this is an opportunity. Get to know best of the rest. Here's your guide to the most soulful players still in contention.
Mike Lowell - 3B - Boston Red Sox
Two years ago, after a season which has proved to be an utter aberration, the Marlins made Mike Lowell a throw-in, alongside Josh Beckett, in the trade that brought them Hanley Ramirez. One cannot fault them for this move, however, I doubt anybody in Florida (or Boston, for that matter) would have predicted that Lowell would finish any season with more RBIs (124) and a higher batting average (.324) than Miguel Cabrera. His RBIs set a Red Sox record. He made Manny Ramirez' late-season DL stint largely inconsequential.
Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks
He finished only three stolen bases short of becoming the first rookie to ever join the 30/30 club. Even if he had made it, he probably wouldn't have won the Rookie of the Year because of Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun. He had five multi-homer games. He is the best bet to have a Prince Fielder-like sophomore season. He might start as early as Wednesday. Every facet of his game improved as the season progressed.
Livan Hernandez - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
He's easily forgotten these days. Casual fans will be surprised to see him when he trots out to the mound in Game 3 of the NLDS between Chicago and Arizona. He's been "reduced" to nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter on what was supposed to be a middle-of-the-division team, a team that failed to score as many runs as their opponents, but somehow won more games than anybody in the National League. But he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter who's logged 200 innings in ten consecutive seasons, and 11 or more wins for eight in a row. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter who has a 4-0 record and a 1.99 ERA in the NLDS and NLCS, a NLCS MVP, and a World Series MVP. He was undefeated in the postseason (6-0) until the World Series in 2002. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a career 2.96 ERA in 9 starts at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Livan has quietly become one of the most reliable pitchers of his generation. He never tires, and somehow he always seems to be able to reach back for something extra when it matters most.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Boston Red Sox
Nobody east of McCovey Cove has had more attention directed his way during the 2007 season than Dice-K. In addition to the media frenzy, Dice-K was introduced to a different theory of pitching, a different size of ball, and, let us not forget, a different level of hitter in the world's best baseball division, the AL East. His performance was very uneven during his rookie year, but he did achieve 15 wins, 200 Ks, and 200 innings (only six other pitchers managed as much), marks that would have been more than sufficient for any other rookie. During one six-start stretch in June and July, Dice-K had a 1.29 ERA with 51 K in 42 IP. When Dice-K stays in the strikezone, away from the big inning, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the postseason. One thing is for certain, he is just as exciting as advertised.
Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs
Fonzi began the season in much the same way as fellow Hundred Million Dollar Men, Barry Zito and Vernon Wells. Unlike BZ and VW, Soriano followed his .270/0 HR April by batting .303 with 33 HR the rest of the way, including a historic September which carried the Cubbies into the postseason. If his quad injury hadn't cost him his speed and much of August, Soriano would be on pace to match most of the gaudy numbers from 2006 that gained him his massive contract.
Chone Figgins - Anywhere & Everywhere - Los Angeles Angels
On the morning of May 31, Chone was batting .133. His manager had been forced to sit him for two important games against Seattle in favor of a power-hitting utilityman, Robb Quinlan, and promising rookie infielder, Erick Aybar. The Angels won both games. If Chone wanted to start on a contending team, he was going to have to step it up. He had three hits on May 31 and three more on June 1. From that point until September 22, a span of 83 games, he hit .405, scored 69 runs, and stole 37 bases. He also started at four different positions. Despite playing only 115 games, he finished with some of the best overall numbers of his career. His play-anywhere, do-anything, take-whatever-they'll-give-you-and-more style epitomizes Scioscia's Angels.
Kenny Lofton - LF - Cleveland Indians
The active triples and stolen base leader, K-Lo, has played for nine different teams in the past six years, a stretch which inspired a DHL commercial and makes Reggie Sanders' career seem like the picture of stability. Like Sanders, Lofton's transience is inexplicable. During those six seasons he's batted .293, averaged 80 runs and 24 stolen bases per year, and made four trips to the postseason, all while playing solid defense and being an unmistakably positive veteran presence in the clubhouse. Now, he's finally back where he belongs, in Cleveland, where he was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner between '93 and '99. No Indian will be more eager to break Cleveland's 59-year World Series drought. Lofton has 349 postseason at-bats. The rest of the Indians have combined for 61. Since acquiring Lofton, the Indians are 54-35. Kenny probably won't be making starts against tough lefties this October, but against righthanders this season Lofton is batting .313 with an 838 OPS, so you can bet he'll be the left-fielder against the likes of Clemens, Wang, and Mussina in the Division Series.
Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs
Like Alfonso, D-Lee got hot at the right time. He followed his first-half power outage (6 HR) by hitting as many homers (17 HR) after the All-Star Break as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, or Miguel Cabrera. He hit .365 in September, which bodes well for October. D-Lee is the face of the Cubs, the "new look" Cubs. Ironically, as a Marlin, he was a big part of destroying the Cubs chances the last time they made it this far, in 2003. Hopefully he can impart that never-say-die attitude upon his new teammates, many of whom have little or no postseason experience.
C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians
Just don't miss his start on Thursday afternoon. Baseball's best pitcher facing baseball's best lineup in a playoff situation. This is when the soul rises.
Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies
On July 8th, at a time when neither team could really imagine themselves facing off in the postseason, the Phillies were playing the Rockies. In the third inning, with the Rockies leading 4-2, driving rain and gusty wind forced a delay. The Colorado grounds crew had trouble with the tarp, one member being tossed around and dragged by sudden bursts of powerful high-altitude winds. Jimmy Rollins led his entire team out onto the field and, rainsoaked, they helped the opposing grounds crew secure the tarp. At the end of the delay the Phillies mounted a comeback, led by Rollins going 3-for-3 with 2 RBI. Not enough can possible be said about Rollins' historic MVP season, in which, among other things, he will play upwards of 165 games at the sports' most demanding position. He has led the Phillies wire-to-wire and into the playoffs, just as he predicted. Don't expect this to be the last of his heroics.
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