Fantastic Thoughts: Everybody's Underrated in Canada

Since the mid-nineties, few save diehards like myself, have felt it necessary to follow that friendly fourth-place team from north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Canadian baseball fans have dwindled, robbed of one franchise and forced to watch another languish in baseball's toughest division.  You probably don't realize that over the last six seasons the Jays are actually twenty games over .500, having never won fewer than 75 games.  If they were in any other division, they would routinely be playing meaningful games in August and September and would likely have brought home at least one or two division titles during that span.

In fantasy baseball, as the 2010 season proved once again, it doesn't pay to ignore the Jays.  Toronto hit 46 more homers than any other team in baseball last year.  That's right.  Even if they hadn't had the MLB leader in homers, Jose Bautista, they would've been second in the majors in long balls.  (Note: On the other side of things, the Jays finished dead last in the AL in steals, with 58.  That's right, the entire team managed fewer steals than Juan Pierre.)

As such a dramatic team-wide power surge suggests, some of the year's best deals came out of Toronto.  Most notably, Bautista, generally ignored in all by the deepest leagues, compiled the biggest home run total by any player since 2007 and was also among the league leaders in runs, RBI, walks, and OPS.  Vernon Wells, the once-promising centerfielder who many had left for dead after a string of rather dismal campaigns, had his first 30+ HR season since 2006 (and didn't kill your batting average either).  You probably could've had him for $1 add the tail end of your mixed-league auction.

John Buck, a infinitely forgettable 30-year-old catcher who wasn't even guaranteed a starting job when the season began, posted career highs in nearly every relevant offensive category (I kid you not: runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG).  Alex Gonzalez, a veteran shortstop generally favored only for his defense, who hadn't hit more than 16 homers in a season since 2004, hit 17 in half a season in Toronto, before being traded to the Braves.  He also finished the season with career highs in 2B, HR, and RBI.

One might assume, with balls flying out of the Skydome at such an alarming rate and from such unexpected sources, that Blue Jays pitchers were not quite as promising investments.  But that wasn't exactly the case.  When Spring Training began, many fantasy analysts didn't have a clue who was going to be in the Toronto rotation.  Doc Halladay was gone and the only other pitchers with significant track records - Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan - were all coming off major injuries with uncertain timetables for recovery.  There was a three-headed competition for the closer's job, with no clear favorite.  Basically, you could've had any Blue Jays pitcher for a song.  And several were worth well more than that.

It took him until a week or so into the season, but Kevin Gregg eventually won the closer's job and compiled a nice total of saves (37), though with somewhat suspect rate numbers (3.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).  Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum became the team's co-Aces, and though their numbers were unspectacular, they were a solid addition to the backend of any fantasy staff.  Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow emerged as good in-season pickups.  Cecil didn't start the season in the majors, but ended up leading the team in wins, with 15.  His second-half was particularly strong (for a 24-year-old), as he went 8-2 with a 4.08 ERA.  Morrow spend the whole year in the rotation (save a brief stint on the DL), but he wasn't exactly drawing many suitors when his ERA sat a 6.80 on May 25th.  Thereafter, the converted reliever became one of the best strikeout artists in the American League, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 119 K in 101 innings.

But all that was last year, right?

Buck, Gonzalez, Gregg, and Marcum have all moved on to other teams, most of which don't offer quite as promising environs (Marcum is the exception).  Nobody's going to be sleeping on Bautista coming off his breakout year.  Wells is a notoriously risky investment who had tricked people before.  Do the 2011 Jays promise to have any sleepers?

Well, I think Morrow, Cecil, and Romero will all remain under value.  All are in their mid-twenties.  An additional step forward in the development process would be enough to make them borderline elite pitchers.  There's no guarantee that happens this year, but it could.  And you certainly won't have to pay for it.  In many leagues, because they play in Toronto, these pitchers will go completely unrecognized, even though their numbers are just as promising (if not moreso) than youngsters like Phil Hughes, Wade Davis, and Brian Matusz who will get much more attention.

Also, if you were paying attention at the beginning of last year, you'll recall that nobody was expecting Bautista and Wells to be the workhorses in the middle of the Jays lineup.  That duty was supposed to fall to Adam Lind and Aaron Hill.  These were guys who had even gotten some MVP consideration in 2009.  Both were coming off seasons of 35+ HR and 100+ RBI.  Both sputtered big time in 2010.  Although they still hit some homers (23 for Lind, 26 for Hill), neither managed to get his OBP above .300 or his average above .240, and all their other numbers suffered accordingly.  While it's probably true that neither should be expected to return to their '09 levels, both also suffered from some tremendously bad luck.  Steep dropoffs in BABIP (Hill had by far the lowest BABIP of any player in the majors) suggest they have a strong chance of getting back to somewhere between their '09 and '10 production.  If that means 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI with averages in the .270 range, you should be getting good value.

Toronto is a good place for players with power.  Last week, I included J. P. Arencibia among my top five fantasy rookies for exactly that reason.  Travis Snider and Edwin Encarnacion, though not rookies, are also potential beneficiaries.  Encarnacion hit five homers in the last four games of 2010.  Obviously, that's a small sample size, but he's a former top prospect who had been struggling with injuries.  Fully healthy and limited primarily to DH duties, the 28-year-old could be primed for a breakout year.  The Jays rushed Snider to the bigs (he played his first MLB game at age 20).  As a result, even though he's now just 23, many fantasy players will have forgotten about him.  Remember last winter how everybody had decided that 24-year-old Delmon Young was a flop?  Snider could follow that pattern.

Finally, one word about Jose Bautista.  There will be no shortage of leagues in which Jose Bautista, coming off his 54 HR season, will actually be underrated.  How could this be?  Well, of course, many cagey skeptics will conclude that he can't possible repeat that production.  Beware taking that rational too far.  The baseball season is long.  It's hard to stay consistent throughout, especially if you're a player who's playing above his abilities.  Evidence of "flukishness" will show up over the course of a season.  Weaknesses will be found and exploited.  Here's the thing though, Bautista's BABIP was actually substantially lower than his career average, so it's hard to argue he was getting lucky.  And here are his monthly totals:

April: 4 HR, 741 OPS
May: 12 HR, 1188 OPS
June: 4 HR, 692 OPS
July: 11 HR, 1183 OPS
August: 12 HR, 1173 OPS
September: 11 HR, 935 OPS

To me, this doesn't look like a guy who's suffering from overexposure as the season progresses.  As yet, there's no indication that the league has figured him out.  Could it happen in 2011?  Sure.  But I think it is equally likely that Bautista is once again at 45+ HR and 110+ RBI hitter who has multiple position eligibility.  Bautista's power surge was accompanied by sizable increases in his walk rate and a sizable decrease in his strikeout rate.  Those are talents which, once learned, generally don't just disappear.

ADDENDUM:  The Jays recently made official deals with Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel.  So it would appear, just like last year, Spring Training will probably feature a three-way competition for closing duties between Rauch, Dotel, and Jason Frasor.  Frasor actually won that competition last year, but was replaced in early April by Kevin Gregg, who held down the spot for most of the remaining season.  I don't think one of these guys is dramatically better than the others, but all have previous closing experience (with some modicum of success) and because of the uncertainty, they will all come on the cheap.  As somebody who always endorses prospecting for saves as late in your draft or auction as possible, you could do a lot worse than any (or all) of these guys, especially in deep leagues.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Eight)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

The Baby Rays...er...Jays

The anchors at ESPN and sportswriters around the league have been quick to highlight the exploits of this season's most surprising franchises, namely the Padres, Reds, and Athletics.  But one team, which has been more or less the equal to all of them, has gone largely unappreciated: the Toronto Blue Jays.

As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League.  They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring.  Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum.  Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).

For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay.  I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.

So far, that hasn't been the case.  Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop.  In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity.  Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin).  Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind.  Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.

As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent.  Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.

On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs.  Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.

There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable.  Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace.  And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also.  But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold.  They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks.  The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.

The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate.  All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.

I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto.  Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team.  They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.

Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied.  Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457).  Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536).  That pretty much tells the story.  If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade.  As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.

Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year.  Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model.  The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future.  Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).

The fairy-tale ending is this.  In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract.  He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency.  If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.

There are still some familiar faces.  Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract.  Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16).  But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development.  Wallace provides legit power from first base.  The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field.  J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop.  The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.

If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture.  Is is realistic?  Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago.  During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs.  The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon.  They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost.  They'll need the Yankees to show some age.  They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected.  And they'll need a little luck.  But, hey, don't we all.  

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Five)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Other Pitching Prospects

We may be yet a month or more away from the much-anticipated arrivals of Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman.  In the meantime, however, a number of top pitching prospects are taking advantage of injuries and April inefficiencies.  Here are the most noteworthy:

Brett Cecil - Blue Jays (1-1, 3.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11 K, 12 2/3 IP)

Last week Cecil replaced the injured Brian Tallet at the backend of the Jays rotation.  His initial starting assignments were a bit unfortunate, on the road against the red-hot Rays and at home against the streaking Red Sox, but the 23-year-old faired relatively well, managing at least six innings on both occasions.  He struck out eight Rays (though he yielded a pair of homers) and held the Sox scoreless for the first five innings.  Next week he'll get a more favorable matchup against the Indians.

Cecil is a top prospect, who throws in the mid-nineties with a wicked curve.  He got half a season worth of work last year, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA and a very poor strikeout to walk ratio (1.82).  This year, however, he seems to have corrected that problem.  In two starts at AAA he struck out eleven while walking on two.  And in his first two starts in the majors?  He's struck out eleven while walking only two.  A small sample size, no doubt, but certainly encouraging.  Cecil should be owned in AL-only leagues and is a solid spot-start option against weaker lineups in the mixed leagues.  Trips to New York, Boston, and Tampa could be a little rough on him, but I expect him to hold onto his spot in the rotation, even after the return of Tallet and Dustin McGowan.

Jhoulys Chacin - Rockies (3-0, 1.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21 K, 21 1/3 IP @ AAA)

Chacin got the call when Colorado had to send Jason Hammel and Jorge De La Rosa to the D.L.  He's just 22-years-old, with nasty stuff, but like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales at his age, he's wild.  Nobody can put a bat on him in Colorado Springs, but he's averaging upwards of six walks per nine innings in eight starts at AAA, dating back to last fall.  That won't fly in the show.

However, his first start comes against the free-swinging Giants, in San Francisco.  That's a favorable match-up.  Unless he's dominant, this is probably nothing more than a month-long audition, as De La Rosa, Hammel, and Jeff Francis are all likely to return sometime in June, if not before.

Jaime Garcia - Cardinals (2-1, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17 K, 26 IP)

Garcia has surged in front of Jason Heyward as the early NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner.  His walk rate (3.1 BB/9) is mild cause for concern, but otherwise his April record is fairly spotless, though we should note that he's faced only one lineup, Milwaukee, that's in the top half of the NL in scoring (the Brewers are, however, #1, and he shut them down).

There's no obvious back-up plan in St. Louis, so Garcia will have a long leash, even if he takes some lumps during his second run through the league.  Garcia clearly understands the Dave Duncan philosophy.  His groudball rate (71.2%) is currently tops in all of baseball.

Ian Kennedy - Diamondbacks (1-1, 4.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 27 K, 30 1/3 IP)

I know I've been writing about Kennedy every week for the past two months, but following another strong start this afternoon against the Cubs, I can't help but mention him again.  He's been pitching to contact in his past two starts and, as a result, has gone eight inning deep in each of them.  He's still giving up a disconcerting number of longballs (6 HR), but he limits baserunners (2.4 BB/9) and is capable of racking up strikeouts (8.0 K/9).  I think he's mixed-league worthy at this point, especially following strong outings against two fairly potent lineups (Phillies are #2 in NL, Cubs are #8).

Mike Leake - Reds (2-0, 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 18 K, 27 2/3 IP)


His starts haven't always been pretty, but so far Leake has been the most effective pitcher in the Cincinnati rotation, probably assuring that he won't be the one getting replaced by Chapman in the coming month.  Leake has kept the ball on the ground in the Great American SmallPark (59.3%) and has shown improved control in his last two starts (only three walks in his last fourteen innings, after giving up twelve walks in his first fourteen innings).  He throws lots of pitches with lots of movement, which makes for enjoyable viewing, but you do get the sense that the wheels will eventually come off, at least for a start or two.


Mitch Talbot - Indians (3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7 K, 26 1/3 IP)

Definitely the most overlooked rookie this month, Talbot has three victories, despite pitching in front of an anemic offense.  There is nothing about the 26-year-old's minor-league track record which suggests he can keep this up and the having more walks (11) than strikeouts (7) is rarely a path to success in the majors.  However, it's hard to argue that Talbot has had an easy time of it thusfar.  His wins came against the White Sox, Twins, and Angels.  Like his teammate, Fausto Carmona, he's been keeping his pitch count down by rolling lots of groundballs.  At the beginning of the season, Talbot looked like the odd man out, were Carlos Carrasco or Aaron Laffey to get off to a strong start at AAA, but for now his position is probably pretty safe.

Offseason Prospectus #9: The Toronto Blue Jays

It wasn't that long ago that Blue Jays fans had a lot to get excited about. In the Spring of 2007 they were coming off a year in which they had finally unsettled the balance of power in the AL East. Since the Jays last playoff appearance, a World Series win in 1993, the Yankees and Red Sox have had a stranglehold on their division. But in early 2007, it looked like things were about to change. J. P. Riccardi, the Sandy Alderson disciple and Billy Beane bosom-buddy of Moneyball fame, had assembled a team that was making Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein uncomfortable.

For starters, there were Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, two Gold Glove caliber outfielders (Wells has won the award three times) in their mid-twenties who could hit a little as well. In 2006, Wells had finished fourth in the AL in extra-base hits, and Rios wasn't that far back, tied with Derek Jeter at 35th. Wells had already agreed to a fat extension which would assure he was a Blue Jay until 2014. Riccardi would negotiate a similar (though not quite as large) contract with Rios a year later.

The Jays offense did not begin and end with their young outfielders. They also had veteran slugger Troy Glaus, coming of a 38 HR, 104 RBI campaign. They had sweet-swinging first-baseman Lyle Overbay, who hit .312 in '06 and finished 4th in the AL in doubles. And, Riccardi had just signed the Big Hurt, Frank Thomas, coming of a resurgent MVP-caliber season with the Athletics. With young talents like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind also on the club, the '07 Jays had the makings of a team that could light up even the best pitching staffs in the league.

They also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, led by the fearsome tandem of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. The back-end of the rotation was buoyed by a stable of impressive prospects, including Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen, all 25 and younger. And, they had a solid closer, B. J. Ryan, coming of a season in which he had saved 38 games and maintained a ridiculous 1.37 ERA.

For Blue Jays fans it must seem like such a long time ago. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, who looked like such "sure things," have become two of the game's worst contractual albatrosses, having suffered terrifyingly steep drops in production of the last three years. As has Lyle Overbay. Every one of the five pitching prospects listed above suffered a major arm injury in '07, '08, or '09. Same goes for B. J. Ryan, who had to be released last spring. Frank Thomas had a solid, but injury-plagued '07. So did Glaus, who was dealt to the Cardinals after the season. And, as any Toronto fan will tell you, the list goes on and on.

Now, the Riccardi era is over. The Blue Jays gave Alex Rios away, and probably would've done the same with Vernon Wells, had anybody been willing to take him. Hill and Lind, who looked a couple of years ago like great complementary pieces, are now the core of the Toronto lineup. New GM, Alex Anthopoulos, must decide whether to trade Halladay, one of the most popular (and best) players in the history of the franchise, or risk seeing him walk away after the 2010 season. It's a ballclub in shambles, and the road ahead doesn't look particularly bright.

Free Agents:

Rod Barajas (34) C

Kevin Millar (38) 1B/DH

Marco Scutaro (34) SS

Arbitration-Eligible:

Jeremy Accardo (28) RHRP

Jose Bautista (29) 3B/LF

Shawn Camp (34) RHRP

Raul Chavez (37) C

Jason Frasor (32) RHRP

Casey Janssen (28) RHRP

Brandon League (27) RHRP

Shawn Marcum (27) RHSP

Dustin McGowan (27) RHSP

Brian Tallet (32) LHSP

ETA 2010?:

J. P. Arencibia (24) C

Brett Cecil (23) LHSP

Brian Dopirak (26) 1B/DH

Brad Mills (25) LHSP

Travis Snider (22) LF/RF

The first line of business for the Jays front office this winter is dealing Roy Halladay. Doc has made it clear that although he loves playing in Toronto, he wants the opportunity to pitch in the postseason while he's still at the top of his game (Halladay will turn 33 in May). It seems hard to imagine the Blue Jays looking like an imminent contender by the end of next season; so, in order to get the most in return for one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball and to prevent the distraction which troubled the Jays for much of 2009 (the probable cause for Riccardi's dismissal), Anthopoulos will almost certainly deal Doc in the next couple months, perhaps as soon as next week's winter meetings.

Several teams will be rumored in the mix, but the Jays eventual partner will undoubtedly be a team with deep pockets and probably a deep farm system as well, making the Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees among the obvious frontrunners. Darkhorses could include the Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Brewers, and Mets, although in each case there are potential issues with coming up with either enough quality prospects to make the deal or enough payroll to sign Halladay long-term.

Most of the rumors which has circulated thusfar, have the Jays coveting young pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, or Trevor Bell. While there may be some truth to that, I expect any deal for Halladay will prioritize position players. The only places where the Blue Jays are committed beyond 2011 are second base (Hill), center field (Wells), right field (Travis Snider), and designated hitter (Lind). J. P. Arencibia's offensive production stalled a bit at AAA, but he'll still get a shot at taking over catching duties this spring. Edwin Encarnacion, who the Jays acquired for Scott Rolen, has two more years before free agency. He never lived up to expectations in Cincinnati, but he's still pretty young (27), so there's a good chance he will benefit from the change of scenery.

Alex Gonzalez and Jose Bautista are nothing more than place-holders and Lyle Overbay's contract expires at the end of 2010, so the most pressing needs for the Jays are long-range solutions at first and short. That's good news for the Red Sox and the Rangers, both of whom have quality and depth in their organizations at first base. There aren't really any franchises with a bevy of five-tool shortstops, so it's likely a question of whether the Cubs, Red Sox, or Mets would be willing to part with players who are currently a big part of their long-term plans.

(If I were making the odds for a Roy Halladay trade, I would say the Boston could put an end to it this weekend if they were willing to offer Lars Anderson, Jed Lowrie, either Buchholz or Bowden, and a low-end prospect at OF or P. That's a lot to put on the table, but having a rotation of Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, and the remaining youngster might be worth it.)

The reason I don't expect Toronto to build a trade around pitching is that one thing J.P. Riccardi did very well was draft pitchers. The Blue Jays have a stockpile of relatively young, high-upside hurlers which is already the envy of most of their peers. What the franchise had trouble doing in recent years was keeping those pitchers healthy. This spring will see the return of Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and Jesse Litsch. Neither Marcum nor McGowan threw a single pitch in '09. And Litsch managed only two starts. However, in '08 that trio combined to pitch over 400 innings, won 29 games, and had a combined ERA of 3.71. None was older than 26 at that time. If each can bounce back and continue to mature, the Blue Jays could have the makings of a very formidable rotation as soon as 2011.

Also in their stable, they have Brett Cecil, 23, who had an up-and-down rookie campaign, when the injuries mentioned above pressed him into big-league action earlier than the franchise probably would've liked. But, during one five start stretch in July and August, he went 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 26 K in 30 IP. The young lefty has a vicious breaking ball, a lively fastball, and displayed good control in the minors. He is easily the equal of any of the more infamous young fireballers for New York and Boston.

Toronto's pitching corps don't end there. The Jays have a number of mid-twenties starters bouncing around the system. If Roy Halladay is traded, there will likely be at least one more quality pitching prospect in the mix. Not all of these guys will develop into starters who Toronto want in their big-league rotation, but there's a great chance four or five of them will, and the Jays will spend much of 2010 figuring out who that's going to be. Here's my early rankings:

1. Jesse Litsch (25) 13-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 99 K, 176 IP in '08

2. Dustin McGowan (27) 12-10, 4.08, 1.22, 144 K, 170 IP in '07

3. Brett Cecil (23) 7-4, 5.30, 1.65, 69 K, 93 IP in '09

4. Shaun Marcum (28) 9-7, 3.39, 1.16, 123 K, 151 IP in '08

5. Marc Rzepcznski (24) 2-4, 3.67, 1.32, 60 K, 61 IP in '09 / 9-5, 2.66, 1.17, 104 K, 88 IP @ AA/AAA

6. Reidier Gonzalez (24) 4-6, 2.90, 1.15, 67 K, 93 IP @ AA in '09

7. Brad Mills (25) 13-5, 1.95, 1.17, 159 K, 147 IP @ A/AA in '08

8. David Purcey (28) 8-6, 2.69, 1.12, 121 K, 117 IP @ AAA in '08

9. Ricky Romero (25) 13-9, 4.30, 1.52, 141 K, 178 IP in '09

10. Robert Ray (26) 13-9, 3.61, 1.34, 132 K, 167 IP @ A/AA in '08

11. Luis Perez (25) 9-11, 3.55, 1.31, 112 K, 162 IP @ AA in '09

12. Scott Richmond (30) 8-11, 5.52, 1.49, 117 K, 139 IP in '09

Each of these guys, with the exception of Richmond, have flirted with dominance at some stage in their careers thusfar. Given some good luck, the Jays have the makings of an incredible young staff. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to assemble a lineup potent enough to make them competitive with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Sadly, at this point I'd have to say 2012 at the earliest.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

RF Jose Bautista (R)

2B Aaron Hill (R)

DH Adam Lind (L)

CF Vernon Wells (R)

3B Edwin Encarnacion (R)

1B Lyle Overbay (L)

LF Travis Snider (L)

SS Alex Gonzalez (R)

C J. P. Arencibia (R)

SP Jesse Litsch (R)

SP Dustin McGowan (R)

SP Shaun Marcum (R)

SP Brett Cecil (L)

SP Ricky Romero (L)

CL Jason Frasor (R)

SU Scott Downs (L)

SU Shawn Camp (R)

MR Jeremy Accardo (R)

SWING Brandon Morrow (R)

SWING David Purcey (L)

MOP Casey Janssen (R)

C John Buck (R)

IF John McDonald (R)

IF Brian Dopirak (R)

OF Reed Johnson (R) FA

The Stream (Week Seven)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

All the rainouts this past week could effect the projected rotations in the days to come, but here's how I'm forecasting:

MON: Randy Wolf (LAD) v. New York Mets (Tim Redding)

One of the Nats top prospects, Ross Detwiler, is coming up to make a spot start against the lowly Pirates, but I've definitely got more faith in Randy Wolf, even though he faces a pretty hot offense. Wolf hasn't allowed more than one earned run in each of his last four starts and he's got a 2.60 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season. Plus, while Detwiler faces somebody who's been pitching well so far this season (though I don't trust him), Ross Ohlendorf, Wolf squares off with Tim Redding in his first start coming off injury. Unless he's had a total arm transfusion, I don't think we can expect very much from Redding.

TUE: Barry Zito (SFG) @ San Diego Padres (Chris Young)

I may live to regret this, but I'm going to jump back on the bandwagon now that Zito has made five straight quality starts. It helps that San Diego's home OPS is 683, easily the worst in the NL, so even if Young outpitches Zito, I doubt he'll disastrously effect my WHIP and ERA. Shairon Martis pitches at home against Pittsburgh. That would be my #2 option.

WED: Paul Maholm (PIT) @ Washington Nationals (John Lannan)

There are several good pitchers on Wednesday, but not a lot of good matchups. Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Cecil, and Matt Harrison are all pitching well, but Way-Rod is matched up with Yovani Gallardo, Harrison gets super-hot Justin Verlander in Detroit, and Cecil is a rookie lefthander pitching at Fenway for the first time. Therefore, I'm going with Mr. Maholm against the Nats. I should point out that the Nats have a pretty good offense, comparable to the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, and Cardinals thusfar, and John Lannan has a respectable 4.00 ERA, so this is not exactly a slam dunk pick. (If he is available in your league, you might note that Chris Carpenter is coming off the D.L. against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. It's risky, obviously, because he might be rusty and the Cubs are very hot right now, but worth noting.)

THU: Bartolo Colon (CWS) v. Minnesota Twins (Nick Blackburn)

Big Fat Bartolo Colon is having himself a respectable season so far, especially in Chicago. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at Cellular Field. He blanked the Twins for six innings the first time he faced them, though their offense has improved since then with the return of Joe Mauer and hot streaks from Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede.

FRI: Rich Hill (BAL) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

In intraleague matchups it's usually preferable to have the AL player pitching in NL park. Although I don't know that this qualifies, since Rich Hill has made exactly one start in the AL. He looked pretty good in it, beating Kansas City, so I'm willing to take a flyer on him. (Neither is available in my league [partly because I own one of them full-time], but Rick Porcello faces off with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. Both are young studs in the midst of hot streaks. Porcello has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts, while Ubaldo has allowed only six earned over his last four starts. These guys are still available in many shallow leagues.)

SAT: Kyle Lohse (STL) v. Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)

This is another tough one. Armando Galarraga is at home against the Rockies, but although he started the year very well, he's pitched in four straight disasters and may be in danger of losing he spot in the rotation when Jeremy Bonderman returns. I'm moderately fond of both Koji Uehara and Shairon Martis, but they match up against each other, which probably favors Uehara, but only slightly. Instead, I'm going to roll the dice on Kyle Lohse, who's had two straight disasters against strong offenses on the road, but is a solid 3-1, with a 3.20 ERA at home.

SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) v. Texas Rangers (Brandon McCarthy)

I'm tempted to go with Joel Pineiro, who, like Lohse, has been very good at home (2.46 ERA). There are arguments for both Randy Wolf, agains, and Matt Palmer (4-0, 3.38), who square off against each other in L.A., as well as for Dave Bush (2-0, 3.83) in Minnesota. But I'm going to gamble again on Wandy Rodriguez (4-2, 1.90), who probably shouldn't even be available (and may not be by Sunday). I'm hoping that his 0.67 ERA at home outweighs the fact that he will be facing one of the league's hottest teams. However, if I have a relatively safe lead on Saturday night, I don't make this start.

Swimming Upstream [How did last week's choice's fare?]

MON: Bronson Arroyo (7 IP, W, 6.43/1.43, 5 K)

TUE: Manny Parra (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 8 K)

WED: Brian Bannister (5.2 IP, L, 3.18/1.06, 3 K)

THU: Wandy Rodriguez (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 11 K)

FRI: Brett Cecil (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 3 K)

SAT: Brett Myers (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 8 K)

SUN: Koji Uehara (5 IP, ND, 7.20/1.60, 3 K)

Week 6 Totals: 5-1, 43 2/3 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 41 K

This is about as good as you get via streaming. If you were in a good position and refrained from using Uehara on Sunday, it's even better. Something tells me that Way-Rod, Cecil, Parra, and Myers may not be a part of the free agent player pool for a whole lot longer.

Why the Jays are this year's Rays...

This can't be for real, right? It is just a matter of time until they fall back to fourth place, where they belong, right? Maybe the best fourth place team in baseball, but fourth place nonetheless. Nobody predicted this, right? Wrong.

If you check my column from March, "The Raging Jays," you'll find that I've been on the Blue Jays bandwagon for quite some time. In fact, last year I predicted that they would finish ahead of the Yankees (although I didn't figure that would still mean third place, behind the Rays). And I see no reason to second-guess myself now. In fact, it is quite possible that there is nowhere to go but up. After all, Toronto's AL-best record has been achieved without a single win from Jesse Litsch or David Purcey (the #2 and #3 starters going into the season). It was managed despite the fact that B. J. Ryan blew a pair of saves and couldn't find 90 MPH on the radar gun before he went to the D.L. and despite the fact that the team's best hitter, Alex Rios, has started the year hitting .248 with a 670 OPS.

Sure it may be fair to suggest that it is unlikely that Aaron Hill (.376, 5 HR, 989) and Adam Lind (.320, 5 HR, 957) will maintain their current paces. And 29-year-old rookie Scott Richmond (3-0, 2.70) isn't going to go undefeated. The Jays will suffer some cold streaks and they will be battling for a playoff spot down to the very end. But that's my point, they aren't going away. Yesterday they brought up Robert Ray and Brett Cecil to replace Purcey and Brian Burres, who had combined to go 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA in seven starts. Cecil hasn't exactly been gangbusters so far this season, but last year he went 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 K in 118 IP at three minor-league levels. He's only 22 and undoubtedly one of the top pitching prospects around. Ray is a little older (25) and not as dominant (132 K in 167 IP in 2008), but still a legitimate candidate for the back-end of a big-league rotation. It is reasonable to expect that they will be improvements on the pitchers they replace. Later this month Litsch, Ryan, and Ricky Romero will return from the D.L., further bolstering the pitching corps. Around the same time Shaun Marcum will begin a minor-league rehab assignment, putting him on course to rejoin the team in the second half. Marcum may not immediately be the pitcher he was before Tommy John (9-7, 3.39, 1.16 WHIP in '08), but he gives the Jays an additional option at the back-end of the rotation or in the middle innings. Similarly, Dustin McGowan, another major contributor in the staff that was best in baseball last season, could be ready to pitch sometime late in the year. It looked like a rag-tag bunch going into the year, now there appears to be some depth, although more injuries and/or setbacks could still be prohibitive.

Depth is of course essential to any team attempting to survive in the toughest division in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay would not have made it to the postseason last year if it hadn't been for contribution by guys like Jed Lowrie, Willy Aybar, Justin Masterson, and Eric Hinske, all of whom stepped up and played well when major contributors missed time. The Jays bench will need to do the same and early indications are that they can. Kevin Millar has hit .350 in limited ABs. Jose Bautista is a hot prospect who never lived up to his billing in Pittsburgh, but could play 2B, 3B, or OF and hits for decent power. Right now he is hitting .310. John McDonald is, of course, one of the flashiest defenders around, more that an adequate replacement for Aaron Hill or Marco Scutaro defensively, which is critical.

Remember, the Rays were among the top defensive teams in baseball last year, led by great gloves up the middle. The Jays, currently leading the AL in Fielding Percentage, are similarly constructed. Rios (#2), Hill (#7), McDonald (#10), Rod Barajas (#4), and Scott Rolen (#5) are all rated as top ten fielders at their position according to John Dewan's FIELDING BIBLE, and Scutaro, Vernon Wells, and Lyle Overbay are just shy of being premier defenders as well. Only Travis Snider, well hidden in left field, can truly be considered a butcher.

Besides Cecil and Snider, their are a couple prospects to look out for later in the season. J. P. Arencibia is currently catching at AAA. In two stops last year the 23-year-old first-rounder out of Tennessee hit 27 HR with an 850 OPS. He could see time if Barajas struggles, or even at DH if Lind or Snider were to go down. Toronto's first-round pick from last year, David Cooper, also showed considerably skills in his half-season debut, hitting .333 with a 901 OPS. If he can continue at close to that clip at AA, he could make his debut in the second half.

Perhaps most importantly, after years of suffering under the ineptitude of John Gibbons, who was blessed with arguably better teams, the Jays have turned the reigns over to Cito Gaston, who has quite clearly improved the hitting approach throughout the lineup and has shown belief in his talented young players. First place is a familiar position for Gaston, who guided the Jays to their back-to-back championships in the early 90s. Like Joe Maddon of the Rays, he has captivated the entire clubhouse and has the Jays focusing on factors they can control and not thinking about the Yankees and Red Sox. That said, a major test comes in the middle of May when Toronto plays nine straight against the Yanks, Red Sox, and White Sox, arguably the three best clubs in the AL.

(Look, an entire column about the Jays and I didn't even mention Doc Halladay, who, in case you haven't heard, is the best pitcher in baseball.)

Preseason Notes: The Raging Jays

There are several reasons why sportswriters, commentators, and pundits are dismissing the Toronto Blue Jays this March.  First and foremost, there is the quality of their competition.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays were all superior last season and each of those teams made more of an off-season splash than the Jays.  More importantly, perhaps, the Blue Jays strength, a pitching staff which was very quietly the best in baseball in 2008, has been decimated by the loss of three starters - A. J. Burnett to free agency, and Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum to injury.  Toronto was 11th in the A.L. in runs scored last year and their only offensive acquisition is Kevin Millar, so presumably they need to shut down their opponents in order to win.  Ace Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch are the only pitchers competing for rotations spots this spring who started more than a dozen games in the majors last season.

These are areas of serious concern, but they don't provide a full picture of Toronto's potential.  One thing remains constant, the Blue Jays retain Halladay, the best starting pitcher in either league (with all due respect to Sabathia and Santana), and a veteran presence whose influence on his young teammates helps reify comparisons with Greg Maddux.  Halladay has electric strikeout-artist stuff, just like Maddux in his prime, but it is his willingness to pitch to contact which allows him to stick around deep into games and deep into the season.  He's surpassed 16 wins and 220 innings in each of the last three seasons, despite getting less than average run production.  With Doc's presence on the mound every fifth game, the Blue Jays have the ability to stop losing streaks and take pressure of their young arms and their bullpen.

That stable of young arms is impressive, even without Marcum and McGowan, both of whom are likely to miss all of 2009.  Jesse Litsch will be expected to move up to #2 in the rotation this year, at the age of 23, but his numbers from last season (13-9, 3.58 ERA, 99K, and 1.23 WHIP in 176 IP) suggest he is ready to be successful in that role.  In fact, he may be primed for a breakout season, more than filling the shoes of the departed Burnett.  Halladay and Litsch will be followed by some combination of David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Casey Janssen, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond, and Matt Clement.  All the these pitchers possess a certain amount of upside, but Brett Cecil is the kid to watch most closely.  He jumped three levels in 2008 (at the age of 21), performing well at each of them and earning himself a long look this spring.  During his extended run at AA, Cecil posted a miniscule ERA (2.55) and excellent strikeout ratios (10.08 K/9, 3.78 K/BB).  More patient hitters at AAA led to more walks in his brief time there to end the season, but he continued to be overpowering (9.10 K/9) and generally effective (4.11 ERA).  Most prospects of his caliber would be getting some major love at this point, but Cecil is benefitting from the wall of invisibility that comes with playing baseball in Canada.  If he shows strong command during camp, he could be a sleeper for Rookie of the Year and a key to making the Blue Jays rotation formidable once again.

What has gone most unnoticed in the writing off of the Jays, however, is that there offense is not as bad as it appeared last season.  Extended injuries to Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen meant far too much exposure for Marcus Scutaro, John McDonald, and Joe Inglett, each of whom provides value only in more limited utility roles.  The return of Wells, Rolen, and Hill will also bolster the performance of Alex Rios, the Jays star right-fielder, whose production also suffered early in the year.  From June on, Rios hit .306 with 12 HR and an 854 OPS, clearly benefitting from improved lineup protection.  Even if Toronto again struggles with injuries, the acquisition of Millar and Jose Bautista will give them improved offensive option off the bench.  

Former manager John Gibbons also experimented far too long with cast-away veterans Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Shannon Stewart in the outfield and DH roles in 2008.  Don't expect Cito Gaston to make the same mistake.  One of Gaston's first acts as manager was inserting Adam Lind in LF full-time, the result of which was a .296 AVG, 9 HR, and a respectable 792 OPS from June 22nd on.  Lind can hit.  I expect all those numbers to improve in his sophomore campaign.  He will be followed to the big leagues by Travis Snider.  The two are Toronto's top hitting prospects, both providing considerable power and good plate discipline, both of which were profoundly missing last season when the Jays were 10th in the A.L. in OBP and 11th in SLG%.

There is very little pressure on the Jays as everybody looks at the AL East as a three-horse race, but I expect Toronto to again finish the season above .500 (for the fourth year in a row), play spoiler, and perhaps even challenge for a wild-card berth.