Irrational Derek Jeter Love/Hate vs. Scott Rolen

The Yankee Captain's underwhelming 2010 season has made the controversy surrounding his impending free agency all the more stressful for Yankee fans...and entertaining for the rest of us.

Already the negotiations have begun in the media, with the House of Steinbrenner vowing not to pay for milestones and sentimentality, and Jeter's agent, Casey Close, reminding them that the Captain's "impact cannot be overstated."  In my view, the more rounds of shenanigans the better.  But there's really only one possible outcome, right?  Who else could be interested in a 37-year-old, defensively-challenged shortstop coming off the worst season of his career and demanding at least an eight-figure salary?  Not my team (I hope).

I am, of course, an avowed Jeter-hater.  My spite correlates more or less exactly in its excess to the hyperbolic man-love that originates from the Bronx and is spews almost daily from the mouths of self-righteous Jeter-ites like Joe Morgan and Joe Buck.  If there weren't such a willful ignorance on the part of the pro-Jeter camp, denying even his most glaring flaws and suggesting he ranks not only among the elite of his era, but is somehow among the best ever, I wouldn't feel obligated to write snarling anti-Jeter rants each and every year.

Can't we be reasonable?  I, at least, am willing to try.  What I want to know is, personal preferences aside, what is Derek Jeter's actual value on the open market?  In order to establish that, we'll need to start by looking at some similar players who've tested the free agent market in the decade since Jeter signed his last contract.

For starters, there's Miguel Tejada.  He's almost exactly the same age as Jeter.  He's been reluctant to accept the fact he's no longer a "Gold Glove" shortstop.  As recently as 2009 he had a year in which he was among the league leaders in hitting (.313) as well as several other categories.  But, in 2010, his production dropped off the table, as he posted a 692 OPS, the worst since his rookie season.  Sounds familiar, right?  Like Jeter, Tejada is a free agent and you can bet, whatever suitors he has (if any), they aren't going to be discussing anything bigger than the $6 Million, one-year deal he had in 2010.

Even I will grant, however, that Derek Jeter is worth more than Miguel Tejada, and not just because of his "intangibles."  Like Tejada, Jeter possesses great bat control, the ability to hit to all fields, sporadic power, and a great knack for situational hitting.  Unlike Tejada, he also has decent speed and a more selective approach, which will help him continue to be an acceptable top-of-the-order hitter, even as some other aspect of his game deteriorate.  Also, although the difference is probably minimal, and not supported by the limited sample size from this season, Jeter is still a noticeably better shortstop than Tejada, at least a more sure-handed one.  And Jeter's athletic skills, especially his speed and his instinct for tracking flyballs, suggest that when he's ready to accept a change of position, the Yankees will have options and Jeter have a better chance of adapting.  While I don't think the comparison is as unfair as Yankee fans would like to believe, Jeter has an apparent edge over Miggy on both sides of the ball.

With few other players playing shortstop at such a late stage in their career, it is necessary to look at other positions for comparable players.  It is at this point when we come to Scott Rolen.  I have to admit, this caught me completely off guard.  On the surface, it's kind of strange comparison.  The natural assumption is that these guys are opposites.  Jeter hits for average, Rolen for power.  Jeter steals bases, Rolen drives in runs.  Jeter is an ironman, Rolen is brittle.  Jeter is gregarious, Rolen is shy.  Jeter plays a mediocre shortstop (if we're being kind), Rolen plays an exceptional third base.  Jeter is a lifelong Yankee, Rolen's already got four franchises on his resume.  

However, when you look closer, you see they've been running more or less parallel as players for nearly two decades.  Jeter is nine months older than Rolen.  Both broke in at age 21, and both won the Rookie of the Year award (Jeter in the AL in '96.  Rolen in the NL in '97.).  They've both been frequent All-Stars (Jeter 11, Rolen 6).  They've both won Gold Gloves (Jeter 4, Rolen 7).  They've both come close to the MVP, but never won it.  They both played their prime seasons with the powerhouse franchise in their league.  And, although you may not have realized it, they are both amongst the premier players of their generation.

From '97 (Rolen's rookie season, Jeter's sophomore season) to the recently completed campaign, they rank #5 and #6 in Wins Above Replacement.  Those in front of them are of impressive ilk:

1. Alex Rodriguez 93.2 (6.7 per season)

2. Barry Bonds 86.5 (7.9)

3. Albert Pujols 83.8 (8.4)

4. Chipper Jones 71.5 (5.1)

5. Derek Jeter 67.9 (4.9)

6. Scott Rolen 66.6 (4.8)

Here's how the pair stack up in some other popular metrics:

                      AVG  OPS  OPS+ WPA

Derek Jeter    .314    837    119    31.6

Scott Rolen    .284    867    124    31.1

That's a pretty remarkable similarity.  And, it should also be noted, it's a pretty remarkable accomplishment to be rated in this class.  Some of the guys who fall just behind them are notable: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guererro, Jim Thome, etc.  You may not have realized that Rolen belonged in such company.  (And I was reluctant to admit that Jeter did.)  One might be tempted to suggest that Rolen has been more valuable than Jeter over the course of his career because he's gotten to nearly the same WAR, but with less playing time (mainly due to injuries).  Jeter's WAR per 162 game is 5.18, Rolen's is 5.85.  That's a specious argument, of course, considering Rolen's shortened seasons (particularly '05 and '07) came at a severe cost to the Cardinals.

But Rolen's fragility has been somewhat exaggerated.  He's only had one season with fewer than 100 games started and he's averaged over 550 plate appearances per season during his 14-year career.  Whatever lingering damage there is to his shoulder and back, it has only cost him a few weeks over the last two seasons and certainly hasn't kept him from being productive when he's in the lineup.

In 2010, Rolen was the cleanup hitter on a team that led the National League in almost every offensive category.  He was the protection for MVP-candidate, Joey Votto, making his role an especially crucial one for the Reds.  He was a clubhouse leader and again played exceptional defense at third base (his 10.6 UZR ranked third in the NL).  He made just over $11 Million, but, according to FanGraphs, was worth over $20 Million.  Perhaps, as Matt Klaassen has said of Jeter's 2009, this was the "Last Great Season from a great player."  If so, the Reds may live to regret the $13 Million extension they gave Rolen prior to his 2010 campaign.  But, at $6.5 Million per season, Walt Jocketty has left plenty of room to get his money's worth, even assuming a relatively rapid late-30s decline.

Jeter was, again, according to FanGraphs, worth less than $10 Million in 2010 (but more than $6.5).  But, I can already hear pinstriped protestations, "The things Jeter does cannot be quantified."  Okay, let's talk about some things which can't be quantified.  

1.) Jeter is, of course, Captain Intangible, but Rolen isn't exactly a clubhouse cancer.  Walt Jocketty surprised almost everybody in 2009 when he went to great lengths to acquire the aging cornerman and then extended him only a few months later.  Jocketty and Dusty Baker clearly wanted Rolen to be the veteran presence on their young team and thusfar that gamble has paid off handsomely, with the Reds first trip to the postseason in nearly two decades.  Also, Jocketty's avid pursuit of Rolen makes a big statement about who was at fault during the falling out between the third baseman and Tony La Russa when all were with St. Louis.  Jeter and Rolen are both clearly good "chemistry" guys.

2.) Rolen still plays third base at well above par.  There is no reason to believe he'll have to change positions anytime in the near future and probably will retire still at the hot corner.  He provides exactly what you expect from his position - some power, run production, and decent average.  On the other hand, the Yankees must know Jeter is going to stop being an everyday shortstop soon, probably should've happened already.  Not only is there an awkward "Cal Ripken situation" brewing in the Bronx, but even if Jeter eventually accepts a move, it could start a chain reaction of difficult decisions.  Where will he go?  Who else will need to be moved to accommodate the switch?  How will this effect morale?  How will it effect the Yankee defense?  Will he provide enough offense to be a corner infielder, corner outfielder, or DH?  If not, how with the Yankees compensate and how much will they have to spend on that compensation?  Resigning Jeter has potential costs well beyond just the value of the contract.

3.) Although it's quite clear based on the above WAR standings that Rolen has had an extremely impressive career, he's not developed the HOF-caliber cache of Jeter (or anybody else on that list).  Nobody come to the Great American Ballpark with the hopes of catching one last glimpse of Scott Rolen.  They don't ask for their money back when Baker gives Rolen a day off.  Nobody is going to be scalping tickets in order to profit from Rolen's pursuit of 2000 hits or 500 doubles.  When Rolen can no longer produce better than the Reds other options at third base, he will no longer be their third baseman.  At that point, he will either be forced to accept a reduced role or retire.  Can the same things be said of Jeter?  If Joe Girardi decides the Captain is best suited to a super-utility role which gives him three or four starts a week, will Jeter accept it?  Will New York fans?

4.) Steinbrennerdom might say they aren't interested in "milestones," but you can be damn sure they're interested in the millions of dollars in revenue Jeter's pursuit of 3,000 hits and beyond will inevitably generate.  Those "milestones" mean ticket sales, memorabilia sales, television ratings, advertising sales, etc., etc.  Jeter deserves to be compensated accordingly.  I may not understand why he's so popular, but I don't dispute that he is, and popular players are profitable players.  However, the profit motive in this case does not necessarily correlate with the Yankees oft-stated top priority: winning.  Moreover, if the Yankees have proved anything during the last two decades, it's that winning is profitable.  In fact, putting the best team on the field, even if it doesn't include Jeter, might be the quickest and most efficient way to profit.

Jeter's contractual negotiations bring a lot of factors to the table which Rolen's frankly did not.  Even if you are compelled to believe, as I do, that they are comparable offensive players and that Rolen is the superior defensive player, you still have to give Jeter a bonus for his durability and his "brand."  I believe, that if the baseball market were truly perfect, in the Milton Friedman sense, Jeter would get paid  20-25% more than Rolen, at most.  Of course, it isn't perfect, and based on this year's performance, there's a strong likelihood that Rolen is actually underpaid, as he has been for much of his career.

If Rolen had waited until now to negotiate his extension with the Reds, he could've reasonably ended up making about what he made each of the last four seasons ($11 Million/Yr.), probably for the next two, with some incentives and some sort of option for a third.  I think this makes Buster Olney's prediction of 3 yrs./$45 Million for Jeter seem pretty reasonable, perhaps even generous...if this were a perfect market situation.    

But, as one last comparison and point of curiosity, I'd like to know how much each player has made per Win Above Replacement up to this point:

Jeter: $2,930,528 / WAR
Rolen: $1,549,450 / WAR

I think that satisfactorily dispels any notion of a perfect baseball market.

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Cincinnati Reds

I'm continuing my ongoing assessment of playoff-bound franchise based upon their dramatic appeal with a look at the Cincinnati Reds.  Here's what's to like:

• The Cleveland of Southern Ohio: We generally make a big deal out of cities with tortured fan-bases, but for some reason, Cincinnati rarely makes that list, even though the city went a decade (from '95-'05) without even sniffing the playoffs in either football or baseball.  The last time they celebrated a championship was 1990.  Certainly, their drought is miniature in comparison with some of the other teams in the league, but of all the remaining contenders, the Reds are the franchise that has waited the longest for the opportunity to play baseball in October.
• A Big Middle Finger To Billy DeWitt, Jr.:  The Cardinals aren't exactly the "Evil Empire," but they are the most successful franchise in the history of the N.L. and they were heavily favored to runaway with the Central division again when the season began.  But former St. Louis GM, Walt Jocketty, has run roughshod over his former club.  To considerable astonishment, Cardinal's owner, Bill DeWitt, fired Jocketty only a year after the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series, despite the fact that he'd taken the Redbirds to the postseason eight times in the previous twelve seasons.  The Reds jumped at the opportunity to land Jocketty, immediately hiring him as a consultant and inserting him as GM less than a year later.  One of his first orders of business was the acquisition of another disgruntled former Cardinal, Scott Rolen, who has had a resurgent season at the center of the Reds lineup.  Rumors swirled last offseason that Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan might soon follow.  Getting back to the promised land before DeWitt would by the capstone of Jocketty's calculated revenge.
• Baker's Curse: Dusty Baker is, by all accounts, one of the most likable managers in the sport.  He's adored by his players, convivial with the media, and never squabbles with his front office.  He has also been very successful.  This will be his fourth division title, with his third different team.  He's been named Manager of the Year three times, and could make it four with this year's performance.  He also took the Wild Card Giants to within eight outs of a Championship in 2002 and the lowly Cubs to within five outs of the World Series in 2003.  His 1400+ victories rank him 25th all-time and within a couple years he will have moved well inside the top 20.  Of the 24 managers currently in front of him, sixteen are in the Hall of Fame, and Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Ton LaRussa, and Jim Leyland are almost certainly headed there sooner or later.  However, all those who gained induction as managers had won at least one World Series.  Baker has never gotten his team to the podium and, at 62, he may be running out of chances.  We can be certain, if the Reds have a lead in the late innings of a deciding game, Baker's gonna be sucking on that toothpick like it was his last cigarette before storming the beach at Normandy in 1944. 
• The Lucky Charm: Orlando Cabrera is no longer the player he was in the prime of his career, when he was a Gold Glove middle infielder and top-of-the-order hitter, who could surprise you with his power.  However, O.C. has been to the postseason six times in the last seven years and with six different franchises.  Last year, the Charm hit a crucial homer in Game 163 to lift the Twins into the playoffs, but other than that, he's struggled in October, with just a 609 OPS.

The primary appeal of the Reds is that they are a team which very few fans outside of Cincinnati will have any familiarity with.  They have an MVP candidate, Joey Votto, who was best know, prior to this season, for having missed time due to anxiety.  Cabrera, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo have considerable postseason experience, but few other Reds do.  Those who haven't had the opportunity to watch them play are going to be wildly surprised by how players like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and   Edinson Volquez are.  They will be even more of an underdog in perception than they are in reality just because they have so few household names.  That's exactly the kind of thing that pumps up your NLF.

Narrative Likability Factor: A

Offseason Prospectus #19: The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have gotten an uncharacteristic flurry of national press this week (I highly recommend this article at MLB.com), thanks in large part to their surprise signing of Cuban phenom, Aroldis Chapman.  Aroldis may not be a household name, but he's gotten about as much buzz as any 21-year-old pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg.  Like Strasburg, he can throw in the triple digits, as he proved last spring during the World Baseball Classic.  Unlike Strasburg, there is very little evidence by which to predict Chapman's potential or longevity.  While scouts and even average fans got the chance to see every college start Strasburg made during his exceptional 2009 season at San Diego State, Chapman has pitched the majority of his innings behind the Iron Curtain, as Cuba used him sparingly in international play, perhaps as a way of preventing his defection...which seemed, nonetheless, inevitable.  Although he was hardly spectacular during the Classic (0-1, 5.68 ERA), buzz about him dominated coverage of the event, much as buzz about Dice-K dominated the 2006 version.

Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps.  In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year.  He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP).  Cueto will turn 24 in February.  Volquez is 26.

Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans.  Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels.  Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.

The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition.  In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.

Free Agents:

Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP

The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions.  The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce.  On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior).  Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.

In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads.  Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.

Bronson Arroyo is the prototype.  Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after).  He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings.  If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.

Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati.  The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start.  And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest!  At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32.  Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA.  He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.

The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation.  When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5.  However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.

Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health.  Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips.  There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09.  If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.

There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field.  There are several interesting candidates for the outfield.  Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early.  He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.

His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year.  Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559.  Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.

The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring.  If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson.  Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB.  His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
 
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect).  Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR).  But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level.  If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.

At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising.  Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth.  Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop.  The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player.  The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).

In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence.  Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned.  Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.

This is an important season for Cincinnati.  Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo.  If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries).  If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)

SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)

CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)

C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)