The Face of Deja Vu

ESPN, among others, is reporting that the Rangers are close to signing a $90 Million deal with third baseman, Adrian Beltre.  On one level, this makes plenty of sense.  Beltre was an MVP candidate for the Red Sox last season.  He is a substantial defensive upgrade over Michael Young and an offensive upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero, and he's younger than either of them.  Nevertheless, I can't help feeling like we've been here before, and the ensuing results were mighty unkind.

In the winter of 2005, Beltre was a 25-year-old coming off a season in which he finished second in the MVP balloting (behind Barry Bonds), led the league in homers (48), and led all of baseball in Ultimate Zone Rating (24.8).  It was the kind of season the Dodgers had been anticipating since they promoted him to the majors at the tender age of 19.  Unfortunately, six years later, it remains the zenith of his career.

In an understandably intense bidding war, the Dodgers (and the rest of the league) lost out to the Seattle Mariners, who signed the young Beltre to a five-year, $61 Million contract, at that time the largest annual salary ever awarded to a third baseman.  To put it mildly, things did not work out.  It took Beltre four full seasons to achieve as many Wins Above Replacement as he had in 2004 alone (10.1).  He never got within 20 HR of his '04 totals or within 200 points of his '04 OPS.  During his tenure in Seattle, from '05 to '09, he ranked just 7th among major-league third baseman in WAR (13.8), his performance bettered or equaled by much cheaper players like Brandon Inge (14.4), Troy Glaus (13.3), and Mike Lowell (13.3). Moreover, most of Beltre's value came from his continually superior defense and he did little to aid the Mariners in the way they had expected, as an anchor in their otherwise power-starved lineup.  Rumors swirled around him.  He was, of course, suspected of using PEDs, based solely on the extent to which his '04 season now seemed like a massive outlier.  He was accused of being surly, of being out of shape, of playing disinterestedly following his big payday.

The extent to which Beltre disappointed everybody's expectations and was almost universally maligned allowed Theo Epstein to swoop in last offseason and make one of the finest value signing of his impressive career.  Though Beltre was nothing like the player he had been in '04, he still had a more than serviceable track record and Epstein's one-year, $10 Million offer represented an absolute high-jacking.  This would have been the case even if Beltre had merely maintained the numbers he averaged during his five years in Seattle.  Instead, freed from the pressure of being a franchise lynchpin and playing in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field, Beltre turned in his best performance since '04...by a long shot.  He finished second in the AL in WAR (7.1), led the Red Sox in nearly every offensive category, and was, as usual, among the best defenders at his position.

Texas is, clearly, banking on the fact that the 2004 and 2010 version of Adrian Beltre are the real ones, that threaded into their already potent lineup, playing in their power-friendly ballpark, and inspired by the potential to contend for several years to come, Beltre will continue to show both superior talent and motivation.  This is, of course, a dangerous assumption.  This will represent the second time Beltre has turned one really good season into half a decade or more of really big paychecks.  By the time this contract is finished, Beltre will have been paid more over the course of his career than substantially superior players (at least in terms of average annual production to this point) like Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, and Aramis Ramirez.  Even David Wright, whose WAR since 2005 is 50% higher than Beltre's (29.7 v. 19.9) may have a hard time equally Beltre's total earning power over the course of his career.

Although I want Jon Daniels instincts to be correct, and I can certainly imagine a scenario in which Beltre earns every cent of this contract, I can't help worrying that the Rangers panicked a bit when they failed to land Cliff Lee and threw more money at a Scott Boras client than was truly necessary (doesn't this happen every year).  Beltre will be 32-years-old when the '11 season begins.  Even if his 2010 production was not an anomaly, can we expect him to produce at that level for more than two or three years to come?  The incredible quickness and dexterity which is the key to his success as both a hitter and fielder will begin to fade by the time he reaches his mid-thirties.  Chipper Jones numbers fell off the table after he turned 36.  Rolen, Glaus, Derrek Lee, and Ron Santo (all players with notable similarities to Beltre) began to rapidly decline well before that.  Beltre's contract will pay him through at least his 37th birthday.

Jon Daniel one ace in the hole, however, is that, unlike all the players mentioned above, Beltre has almost zero injury history.  He's made 600+ plate appearances in eight of the last nine seasons.  Last year, he came out of a pair of rather gruesome collisions completely unfazed (the same could not be said of Jacoby Ellsbury, unfortunately).  If Beltre stays on the field, keeps most of his defensive chops, and is able to produce at least on the level he did in Seattle through the next four or five seasons, the Rangers won't live to regret this signing all that much.  If...

Fantastic Thoughts: "One man's trash..."

The fantasy baseball draft season is officially underway and, as is usually the case, there are few elite players about whom opinions are dramatically split.  Here are my thoughts alongside roto projection from four of the more popular outlets: Bill James, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and Rotoworld.

David Wright - New York Mets - Third Base

Wright has been a consensus first-rounder in each of the last three seasons, but his 10 HR last year in the inaugural season at Citi Field has a number of fantasy pundits shying away.  Others see it as perhaps your last opportunity to roster Wright on the cheap during his prime years (Wright is that magical age of 27).

2009: .307, 88 R, 10 HR, 88 RBI, 27 SB
BJAM: .302, 100 R, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 24 SB
ESPN: .304, 104 R, 21 HR, 97 RBI, 25 SB
CBSS: .300, 90 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 24 SB
ROTO: .310, 105 R, 28, 102 RBI, 24 SB

All four projections agree that Wright's power bounces back at least to the 20 HR plateau, but most see him nowhere close to the 30+ he hit in '07 and '08 at Shea.  Yesterday, Nate Ravitz was arguing that Wright was still a good pick at the end of the first round, ahead of Miguel Cabrera, thanks in part to lack of depth at third base this season, but I don't see it.  Cabrera trounces him in at least three of the five categories and Wright's obvious superiority in stolen bases doesn't make up for the outside chance he again falls short of 20 HR and 100 RBI.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  In the first round, I want stat-hounds, guys that fill up the scorebook every single year, no matter where they play.  I won't reach for Wright until late in the second round.  

Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins - First Base

Morneau's season ended early in 2009 as he suffered from some severe back pain, then had to have a bone chip removed from his wrist.  Of course, wrist surgeries can be hell on hitters (see D-Lee, Big Papi, etc.), but this procedure was relatively minor.  No reconstruction.  No torn tendons.  No pins.  Before Morneau went down, he was on pace to once again be an MVP candidate, with 30 HR and 100 RBI in just 135 games.

2009: .274, 85 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB
BJAM: .282, 91 R, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 0 SB
ESPN: .278, 88 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 0 SB
CBSS: .299, 91 R, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB
ROTO: .286, 88 R, 31 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB

Despite his problems, Morneau still netted his fourth consecutive 100 RBI season and he probably would've stolen a couple MVP votes if he'd stayed healthy to the end.  Everything I've read suggests that Morneau is feeling fit this spring and has agreed to take a few more days off in order to keep his back problems from re-surfacing (thank goodness the Twins will finally be playing on real grass).  I understand worrying about a power-hitter with Morneau's particular injuries, but in BLOGZKRIEG! he was the 10th most expensive first-baseman, a full $20 behind Prince Fielder.  If he's going for under $25 in your standard league, you've got to make that play.  In a draft, he should be one of the first 25 players off the table.

Jose Reyes - New York Mets - Shortstop

News of Jose Reyes' thyroid condition should factor into owners' concerns nearly as much as health of his hamstrings, which cost him almost the entirety of 2009.  Reyes is, of course, a fantasy monster when healthy, but he hasn't yet taken the field in Spring Training, his health remains a major question mark.

2009: .279, 18 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB
BJAM: .285, 113 R, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 57 SB
ESPN: .283, 93 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 47 SB
CBSS: .284, 100 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 45 SB
ROTO: .289, 110 R, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 44 SB

All I see in those projections is the stolen bases.  From '05 through '08 Reyes averaged 65 stolen bases a season.  He could single-handedly dominate a category.  As such, his value is intrinsically tied to his speed, which might be significantly jeopardized.  If he's no longer good for 50+ SB, even if he ups his other numbers a little, he's not a top 25 player.  If Reyes is still on the table in the third or fourth round, or for less than $25, he's probably a decent pick, but even then there is risk involved.

Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies - Shortstop

Unlike Reyes, Rollins had no problem staying on the field last season, but he had serious problems getting on base (.296 OBP), which of course effected his statistics across the board.  Several have suggested it was the beginning of J-Roll's precipitous decline.

2009: .250, 100 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB
BJAM: .271, 104 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 33 SB
ESPN: .273, 103 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB
CBSS: .274, 100 R, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 33 SB
ROTO: .271, 110 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 34 SB

The projections are very similar to Reyes, right?  The difference is that while the projections for Reyes are optimistic and assume that he's healthy, the projections for Rollins are more like a baseline.  It takes only a modest improvement in batting average and OBP for Rollins to easily surmount those numbers.  I don't think that's going to be a problem.  Rollins '09 numbers are heavily influenced by a first-half slump.  From July 1 on he went .285-59-15-50-21.  Project those numbers over a full season and Rollins is once again on a lot of MVP ballot (though maybe not at the top).  J-Roll is only 30, still in the middle of his prime, so I think he's got at least a couple more big seasons in him.  A second rounder (or $25-$30 at auction) with confidence.

Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - Outfield

Ellsbury is entering his third full season coming off his second consecutive year of pacing the American League in stolen bases.  He's only 26-years-old and in '09 he improve upon his rookie year in almost every major indicator.  In AL-only leagues and deep leagues (15+ teams) he's frequently taken in the first round, with the assumption that we haven't yet seen the limits of his skills.

2009: .301, 94 R, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 70 SB
BJAM: .302, 106 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 64 SB
ESPN: .296, 92 R, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 62 SB
CBSS: .285, 95 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 54 SB
ROTO: .296, 106 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 57 SB

As you can see, these are the most disparate of any of the projections we've looked at.  The thing I keep asking about Ellsbury is, "How is it that a guy hitting atop the Red Sox lineup, getting 700 plate appearances a year, hasn't scored 100 runs yet?"  Ellsbury's walk rate is a little worrisome, especially against right-handed pitching.  More worrisome for potential fantasy owners is the fact that Ellsbury faces competition for both the leadoff spot (Marco Scutaro) and his position (Mike Cameron, Jeremy Hermida).  Obviously, Ellsbury will still be on the field the majority of the time, but he could very realistically lose 75-100 AB this season.  An outfield rotation makes the Red Sox a better team.  It doesn't bode well for roto stats.  I think Ellsbury remains good for 90 R and around 60 SB, which makes him a solid second or third round selection, but I won't reach into Carl Crawford territory until he shows a little more power, or the ability to hit .315.      

Hippeaux endorses...(NL Infield)

I'm going to acknowledge my bias right here.  I will never endorse a caucasian player who plays for the perennially lily-white, holier-than-thou, confederate Braves or Astros.  So, sorry Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones, you're having great years, but I just can't bring myself to vote for you.  That said, here's me NL ballot.

1B - Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs (.294-93-30-84-897-6)

I explained why Berkman's not an option and Albert Pujols is likely to still be on the D.L. come July, so the OPS leaders among NL first-basemen since the 2007 break are both out of the picture.  The top five is rounded out by Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and - would you believe it? - Conor Jackson!?!  Fielder and Howard have both suffered much publicized slumps early in this year's campaign, but their numbers are still mighty respectable.  Adrian Gonzalez, on fire the past month, is also a legitimate choice.  Counting Berkman, Texeira, and Prince Albert, eight NL first basemen deserve a trip to Yankee Stadium more than the best choice in the American League (Kevin Youkilis).  I endorse Lee, not only out of loyalty to the Cubs, but because besides being a huge catalyst for Chicago's offensive explosion this season, he saves runs consistently on defense, making spectacular "hot-corner" dives and harnessing the erratic arms of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Mark DeRosa.

Runner-Up: Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies (.250-104-45-131-914-2)

2B - Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies (.317-96-29-97-997-9)

I'd love to make a case for Brandon Phillips, who remains among the most underrated players in baseball, but in truth, it's not even close.  Utley has been downright fantastic in the last eleven months, leading NL second-basemen in RBI, average, OBP, SLG, and OPS

(he leads by more than a hundred points).  He finishes a close second to Dan Uggla in HR and Runs Scored, and to Phillips in hits.  And, as the Baseball Tonight crew is constantly reminding us, he's made himself into quite an impressive fielder as well.

Runner-Up: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds (.283-88-26-86-817-28)

3B - David Wright - New York Mets (.319-107-26-108-956-24)

It would be nice to vote for Aramis Ramirez, but I just can't.  Wright is superior in every statistical category, at least Ramirez' equal on defense, and he can run the bases.  Wright is pretty much the only Met who has maintained his production and focus throughout the unbelievably distracting witch-hunt which has consumed their season.  If New York can turn things around in the wake of Willie Randolph (I highly doubt it), Wright still finds himself primed to make a run at the MVP.  He's in the top 25 in the NL in runs, hits, homers, RBI, and OPS.

Runner-Up: Aramis Ramirez (.302-84-21-95-909-1)

SS - Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies (.301-101-20-66-876-39)

This is one of the toughest decisions on the ballot.  You've got the reigning NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins; a guy who's hit thirty homers and stolen forty bases since the last All-Star Game, Hanley Ramirez; the leagues biggest stolen base threat and possibly most dynamic player, Jose Reyes; and a resurgent former AL MVP, Miguel Tejada.  For me, it really comes down to Ramirez and Rollins.  Ramirez has the slight edge statistically, but they may be largely due to Rollins DL stint in April.  For the most part they are nearly in a dead heat.  I give Rollins the advantage because he is definitely a better defender (2007 Gold Glove Winner) and he is a little more consistent (although when Ramirez is playing well, there really isn't any comparison offensively).

Runner-Up: Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins (.311-113-30-78-930-40)

C - Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers (.293-70-14-59-830-11)

Geovany Soto deserves a trip to New York almost as much a Martin.  But while Sweet Lou has the luxury of plugging Soto into the six-hole every day, and can rest easy when he takes an 0-fer or needs a day of rest, because he's got Fonso, D-Lee, A-Ram, and Fukudome, Joe Torre depends on Coltrane to be his offensive and defensive catalyst, especially while Rafael Furcal is on the DL, Matt Kemp and James Loney adjust to the league, and Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones appear washed up.  Int the last year, Martin has significant at-bats second, third, cleanup, fifth, and sixth in the lineup, he's won a Gold Glove at catcher, but, oh yes, he plays third base on his "off days" because Torre needs his bat.  He's stolen three times as many bases as any catcher in the NL and masterfully handled a difficult pitching staff.   Dodger fans need to focus these next few weeks on sending the face of their franchise to his second consecutive All-Star start.

Runner-Up: Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs (.303-37-14-50-926-0)

MVP? (or NYC)

I like David Wright. I certainly like him a lot more than Derek Jeter. But with all the promotion of him for NL MVP, I'd have to say he's benefiting from the Jeter treatment (or, if you prefer, "the New York media bias"). Wright is more deserving of consideration than Jeter was last year, but he should by no means be the favorite.

It is essentially a four-horse race for the NL's premier award (much more intriguing than the one-horse race in the AL). The injury to Albert Pujols and the Cardinals collapse eliminates a perennial MVP favorite. Ryan Howard made a push to defend his 2006 crown, but a 7-for-45 stretch at the beginning of September probably put his campaign to rest. Hanley Ramirez will no doubt garner some much-deserved votes, but it is difficult to get elected league MVP when your team's record is worse than the Washington Nationals. That leaves Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, and Wright. All four play for teams that are still in contention with a week to play, although it is reasonable to suspect that only Wright's Mets will actually advance, which may be his biggest advantage.

If you're looking for offensive statistics, Holliday is clearly your man. The 2007 winner of the Jay Buhner look-alike contest leads the NL in average (.341), RBI (131), Hits (205), and 2B (48). He is 2nd is SLG (.616), 3rd in OPS (1.017), 4th in HR (36) and Runs (112). Whether it is fair or not, those gaudy numbers will be viewed with suspicion because of Colorado's notoriously hitter-friendly conditions. It is true that Holliday pace away from Coors Field is a little more modest, though still admirable (.303-22 HR-108 RBI-867 OPS).

Milwaukee's Prince Fielder, the runaway 2007 NL HR-King, is powerful everywhere he goes, with 24 homers in his friendly confines and 23 on the road. He's batted a respectable .291 with 117 RBI, 107 R, and a 1.007 OPS. I've heard several commentators suggest that Fielder's MVP chances ride upon Milwaukee getting into the playoffs. I find this logic somewhat flawed, seeing as players like Wright and Rollins take already potent offenses and make them into powerhouses, while Fielder makes an at-best league average offense into a serious contender. Every year, MVP discussions revolve around the success of a player's franchise. Notably, last year Albert Pujols criticized voters for electing Howard because the Phillies didn't make it into October. If Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Colorado all scuffle this week, does that mean Wright should be the default MVP, even if he takes a ten-day O-fer? Personally, I agree that players like Hanley Ramirez can be ruled out of the equation (unless they have truly superlative seasons) because they never played a meaningful game after July, but anybody who is tested by the pennant race, whether their team makes it or not, deserves equal consideration.

Fielder will also be criticized because he is a defensive hack. That's absolutely valid. Defense should be taken into consideration when MVP awards are being handed out, by definition. However, if you're ready to anoint David Wright on those grounds, you need to look past reputation. Sure, Wright makes some spectacular highlight-reel plays (much like that Yankee shortstop). But, those of us who keep watching Baseball Tonight after we see the New York scores know that he isn't the only third baseman in the NL capable of creating Web Gems. Moreover, he isn't nearly as consistent as Scott Rolen, Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, and Pedro Feliz. Wright is a league-average third baseman. Granted, in a league of very good third basemen. Should he receive some credit for that? Sure. Is it equivalent to 10 HR and 20 RBI? No way. (By the way, it should be noted that Matt Holliday has been a very solid outfielder this year. In fact, if Gold Gloves were still handed out to left-fielders, he would probably be running neck-and-neck with Arizona's Eric Byrnes.)

In another aside, Bill James invented a fashionable statistic a few years back, Runs Created. It is supposed to assess a players overall worth. I don't understand how it works exactly, but it seems to be a pretty competent method of assessment. It is interesting to note that Wright, Fielder, and Holliday rank 4, 5, and 6 in the NL in Runs Created per 27 Outs. (They rank behind Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, and Chase Utley, all of whom would be in this discussion if they didn't miss so many games) All of them have been worth between 8.43 and 8.48 RC/27, which is a good indication of how close this race really is.

That brings us to the long-shot case for Jimmy Rollins. Rollins has a lot going against him. In the last 25 years, only three position players have won the MVP who weren't prototypical middle-of-the-order/power hitters: Ichiro Suzuki (2001), Rickey Henderson (1990), and Willie McGee (1985). Making his road more difficult is the fact that only three MVPs in the last fifteen years have come from teams on which another player finished in the top 5 in voting: Ichiro (2001), Jeff Kent (2000), and Ivan Rodriguez (1999). Rollins will undoubtedly lose a few critical votes to teammates Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Rollins will not have a top-ten finish in average (.293), HR (28), RBI (88), OPS (869), or RC/27 (6.73). However, when you add some of his peripheral numbers to very respectable totals in those core categories, you realize that his season has truly been something special. He leads the league in runs (129) and 3B (18) by a sizable margin. He's second in hits (197). He will get serious consideration for the Gold Glove at shortstop. And he's stolen 37 (5th in NL) bases in 43 attempts. Much has been made of Curtis Granderson's 20-20-20-20 season, as should be the case seeing as it is only the third in baseball history. Nobody seems to have noticed that Rollins needs only two more triples and two more homers to go 30-20-30-30. Not a single player has ever done that.