Fantastic Thoughts: "A-Rod's fantasy owners regret 'Juiced Ball Era,' admit culpability, and promise to 'move forward' with 'that kid from Vanderbilt.'" (Third Base Preview)

1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. Evan Longoria (Rays)
3. Pablo Sandoval (Giants) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
5. David Wright (Mets)

I was reading Athlon Sports fantasy preview the other day and was deeply surprise to find that they ranked A-Rod 26th overall and fourth among third-basemen.  Although I would agree that A-Rod is no longer a consensus #1 pick, as he has been for most of the last decade, I think passing on him in favor of guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, and Mark Texeira might be a premature estimation of his demise.  Do you think Mark Texeira would even draft himself in front of the guy who protects him in the order?!?  I doubt it.

That said, it's pretty easy to see the top five here as interchangeable.  Each of them offers a modest risk.  A-Rod has that amazing "self-healing" hip thing.  David Wright plays his home games on a Par 5.  Kung Fu Panda and Z-Pack have yet to prove they can produce at an elite level two years in a row.  And, Evan Longoria, well, actually, I'm having a hard time finding the chink in Longoria's armor.

6. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 1B]
7. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
8. Mark Reynolds (D-Backs) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
9. Chone Figgins (Mariners)

Get while the getting is good, because after these top two tiers, the position gets really shallow really fast.  Believe me, you don't want to get stuck with Jorge Cantu as one of your top corner infield options.

One could probably argue that Youkilis and Ramirez belong in the top tier and I'd be perfectly satisfied drafting either of them, but they are also both coming off injury shortened campaigns, which is why I rated them slightly lower.  Reynolds and Figgins are elite one-category producers (for Reynolds it's power, for Figgins it's speed), who offer solid production in other areas as well.  Reynolds can be a bit of a drag on your batting average in a roto league and in points leagues that register deductions for strikeouts, but he is also one of the game's few 30/30 threats.

10. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)
11. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [also eligible at SS]
12. Michael Young (Rangers)
13. Jorge Cantu (Marlins) [also eligible at 1B in most leagues]
14. Chipper Jones (Braves)

Some will be mighty surprised that Chipper doesn't even make my top ten, and I am in no way denying his ability to provide excellent production...when he's on the field.  But in this year particularly, when there are not a lot of quality three-baggers available late in the draft or on the waiver wire, I'm not comfortable having a #1 guy who's guaranteed to spend at least a couple weeks on the DL, and maybe much more.  Chipper has made as many as 140 starts since 2003.  I love the risk/reward ration if you can get him as a backup/utility option, but not as a #1.

I'm probably unusually high on Beltre.  His recent seasons certainly haven't been superior to many of the guys I've ranked below him, but I like the fact that he's moving away from the spacious Safeco Field and into a lineup which will provide him with a lot more run-producing opportunities.  This could be the year he finally has another 30 HR, 100 RBI season.

15. Alex Gordon (Royals)
16. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [will be eligible at 2B early in the season]
17. Andy LaRoche (Pirates)
18. Jake Fox (Athletics)

Grasping at straws!  So soon!  There are a full four tiers of risky young players in this preview, because several teams don't have clear starters and may even be flirting with platoons (otherwise known as "fantasy kryptonite").  These are the youngsters I'm highest on, each of whom is likely to have a full-time gig...if they stay healthy and play well.

Billy Beane's Latest Swindle

It's days like these which make it hard to be a Cubs fan. Sure, it stings a little when Ryan Dempster gives up a three-run bomb to Manny Ramirez in the NLDS or when Alex Gonzalez boots a routine double-play ball in eight-inning of Game 6 of the NLCS, but it's those moments which make us who we are. Admit it, Cubs fans, the sting of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, painful though it may be, has buried deep within it the promise of delayed gratification. Cubs fans are masochists, ascetics, and Puritans. We have dedicated ourselves to a glory which is always on the horizon. But when it is finally reached, if it is ever reached, our euphoria will be unprecedented. Yankees fans will never experience joy like that. White Sox and Red Sox fans, sympathetic as they may be, will never experience joy like that. To be a lifelong Cubs fan is to maintain the dream of a heavenly reward on earth.

But, Oh!, there will be suffering and there will be trials, and there will be days like these. In his rookie year, Jake Fox hit eleven homers and drove in 44 runs, unspectacular numbers, except when you consider he started only 62 games and got only 241 plate appearances. Extrapolate his numbers over a full season and he would've been one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year in the National League. Which should be no surprise. Between AA and AAA in 2008, Fox had 31 HR and 105 RBI. In just 45 games at AAA in '09 he had 17 HR and 53 RBI, maintaining a .409 AVG and a 1336 OPS. This kid can rake!

Unfortunately, in Chicago he was a man without a position. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are entrenched at the corners and Fox isn't well-suited to the outfield. So, what Jim Hendry had this offseason was a player who had proved he was ready and able to be a productive hitter at the major-league level AND who wouldn't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season. This is one of the best bargaining chips a general manager can have: a player who isn't essential to his own plans, but who offers considerable value to many of his competitors. Jake Fox, I had unwisely presumed, would be one of the lynchpins in a trade for serious major-league talent. Sure, he's got defensive issues and he strikes out a lot, but combined with another prospect or two, Fox could've helped the Cubs land Dan Uggla or Curtis Granderson, both of whom currently play for teams which have places for Fox to play (1B/DH) and covet the financial alleviation he would offer.

Instead, for the second year in a row, Jim Hendry essentially gave away the best tradable commodity he had in his arsenal. Last winter it was Mark DeRosa who he handed to the Indians for a couple of minor-league relievers, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub, and a very young starting pitcher, Chris Archer, who, to be fair, pitched fairly well at the A-level in '09 (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 119 K/66 BB, 109 IP). While all three of these pitchers may end up giving the Cubs some quality innings, with Archer having an outside shot at becoming a member of the rotation down the road, DeRosa would've been real handy to have last season when Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Aaron Miles, and others were combining to give us 7 HR and a 666 OPS from the second base position. Instead, DeRosa ended up playing for the team the Cubs were chasing down the stretch, as the Indians proved how much he was actually worth on the open market. For two months of Mark DeRosa, St. Louis gave Cleveland their two of their best major-league ready relief-pitching prospects, Chris Perez and Jess Todd.

The Jake Fox deal is even more egregious. The two prospects in the deal, Ronny Moria and Matt Spencer, are nothing more than "organizational depth." Moria is a 23-year-old who hasn't advanced past the low-A level, where he has pitched poorly. Spencer, also 23, has hit decently as high as AA, where he posted an 808 OPS in 409 plate appearances last season. Nonetheless, the high-end of his potential probably makes him at best a fourth outfielder in the majors. He's Micah Hoffpauir...lite.

So, the "impact" piece in the Fox deal is Jeff Gray, another middle reliever, who posted a 3.76 ERA for the A's in 26 innings last season. He doesn't have closer-type stuff and has a pedestrian 3.57 ERA in 163 AAA innings. In other words, what Jim Hendry got for Jake Fox was a single middle reliever who looks a hell of a lot like the abundance of middle relievers, including Stevens and Gaub, who the Cubs already have in the organization!

Meanwhile, in addition to giving up a premier prospect for absolutely nothing that they don't already have in abundance, they will pay approximately half of Aaron Miles contract while he's playing for Oakland. Sure, Miles was unimpressive in '09. Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot offer the same skill-set with more upside for less money, but Miles is nonetheless a proven major-league back-up infielder, whose position flexibility and ability to hit for average (.282 career) give him minimal value. I think it is safe to say he's worth almost as much as Jeff Gray, who isn't much better than a replacement-level reliever. It is very, very possible that when this trade is evaluated a year or two from now, the Cubs will have given Billy Beane the two most valuable players in the deal and $1,000,000. That's adding insult to injury.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

Whatever happened to Gyro-ball mania?!?...And other stories of oversight in 2008.

A year ago, the world, and especially ESPN, could not get enough of Daisuke Matsuzaka.  As a result he was the most watched pitcher with a 4.40 ERA.  His overall numbers were respectable (15-12, 201 K), but he was prone to high pitch counts and the meltdown inning, especially in the second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA).  On most nights he looked like a legitimate #3 starter, but very rarely like a $100 Million man.

This year Dice-K is getting less attention than Jed Lowrie, but he's pitching like he invented the fastball.  If his lead holds up this evening against the Orioles, he'll pick up his 15th win of the season, equaling his total from last year, despite the fact that it is only the middle of August and he missed most of June.  More importantly, those fifteen victories are balanced by only two losses and an ERA (2.72) that will rank in the top ten in baseball once he gets a few more innings.  

It's true that a Dice-K start is still a bit stressful for Red Sox fans.  He doesn't seem to like to pitch from the wind-up and he always seems to throw a hundred pitches by the fifth inning.  But it is hard to argue with the results and although he's giving up even more walks than he did in 2007, he is extraordinarily stingy with the base hits.  His Opponent's Batting Average, .208, is the best in baseball for pitchers with 120+ innings.  It's time to start acknowledging that he is something pretty special.  These are the numbers of a legitimate Ace.  Dice-K headlines my team of underrated performers from 2008.

Yadier Molina - C - St. Louis Cardinals

This is the youngest Molina's fourth full season and he is still just 25.  He has long been considered among the top defensive backstops in the baseball and seem primed to pick up his first Gold Glove at the end of the season.  Even more exciting for Cardinals fans is that Yadier has significantly improved his offensive contribution for the third consecutive season, hitting over .300 and posting the lowest strikeout rate in the MLB (14.6 PA/K).  It remains to be seen whether he will develop power (6 HR in 2008), but regardless, Yadier now possesses enough tools to be a starting catcher in the big leagues for a decade or more, which is no small feat.

Jason Giambi - 1B - New York Yankees

Joe Girardi refuses to make him a full-time first baseman or give him consistent starts against lefties, but the Giambino has once again recovered from a modest April to post very solid overall numbers.  This will be the third season since his steroid-confessing cancer-shortened 2004 in which he gets to 30 HR and post an OPS over 900.  He may not be worth $20 Million, but there are very few players in baseball who can do what he does in 140 games.  Next year he'll probably be doing it somewhere other than New York and I bet the mighty Yankees will have trouble filling his shoes.  

Mark DeRosa - 2B/UT - Chicago Cubs

One has to wonder: if the Cubs had managed to trade for Brian Roberts this past offseason, would Mark DeRosa have seen in fewer at-bats?  DeRosa has played 71 games at second base...and 72 at other places on the diamond.  He has a better OPS when he plays 3B or LF than when he's up the middle, so his lack of position security hasn't really effected his hitting.  DeRosa already has career highs in Runs (79), HR (14), BB (60), SB (5), and OPS (828), and needs only three more RBI to tie his career best (74).  DeRosa's consistency and flexibility have allowed the Cubs to whether injuries to Soriano and Lee, as well as spell Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome.  Jim Hendry was heavily criticized when he gave DeRosa $13 Million for three years going into 2007, but DeRosa has had the two best years of his career, all things considered, and looks like a deal this season ($4.5 Million) compared to Orlando Hudson ($6.25 M), Brian Roberts ($6.3 M), and Jeff Kent ($9 M).  

An honorable mention needs to be made for Placido Polanco, perennially underrated, who is once again hitting well above .300 for Detroit and playing stellar defense for the same price as DeRosa.

Melvin Mora - 3B - Baltimore Orioles

After a second consecutive sub-par season in 2007, it looked like Mora's days as a regular might be nearing their end, but he has rebounded in a big way this year, helping to Orioles to remain respectable during their significant rebuilding process.  He is going to attain the 100-RBI plateau for only the second time in his career and the first since 2004 and may make a run at his career mark for homers (27) as well.  At this time last year, Mora looked like more contract baggage that the Orioles would be unable to unload, but if he can match this numbers for only $9 Million in 2009, Mora would be a outright steal for a contender who needs 3B help (Dodgers, Twins, Mariners, etc.).

Jhonny Peralta - SS - Cleveland Indians 

Only Hanley Ramirez (929) and Jose Reyes (851) have posted better OPS numbers than Jhonny Picks (815) in 2008.  He is way ahead of AL All-Star favorites Derek Jeter (760) and Michael Young (751).  He is second among shortstops in HR (19) and tops in RBI (67), despite playing for a team that has really struggled to score runs at times this season.  There has been some speculation about how much longer Peralta will remain a shortstop, with slick-fielding Asdrubel Cabrera already looking fairly comfortable at the major-league level, but Peralta fielding statistics have been well above the league average the last two seasons.  He is under contract until 2010 for a very reasonable price and he is only 26.  If the Indians want to supplant him, they could probably get a great return on the trade market while allowing him to remain at his favored position.

Raul Ibanez - LF - Seattle Mariners

Ibanez seems to be a candidate for the all-underrated team every season, partially because his impressive tools don't include the 30-HR power common amongst corner outfielders.  Ibanez is, however, on his way to his third consecutive 100-RBI season, despite the Mariners terrible offense and he may set career marks in doubles, average, and OPS.  Ibanez will be a free agent this offseason and his age (36) might scare teams away from a long-term contract.  But, he clearly still has a lot to offer on offense, especially for a team who won't rely on him as their primary middle-of-the-order presence.  

Curtis Granderson - CF - Detroit Tigers

It would be hard to duplicate the season he had in 2007, but because of Detroit's disappointing performance as a team and his early-season injury, people seem to have completely forgotten about one of the most exciting young players in the game.  In some ways, Granderson is actually showing improvement over last year (a scary thought) as his walk rate and OBP have gone up, while his strikeout rate has gone down, and his average and slugging have remained essentially the same.  In far fewer at-bats than last year, he's still on pace for around 20 HR and 100 runs scored.

Andre Ethier - RF - Los Angeles Dodgers

He's the least well-known name in the flabbergasting Dodger outfield rotation that now features Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, and Juan Pierre, but with the exception of Manny, who hit most of his dingers in Boston, Ethier has as manny homers as any of them (tied with Kemp for the team lead at 15).  Ethier doesn't have Kemp's raw tools, but he has better plate discipline (38 BB/66 K/393 AB compared to 35/123/463 for Kemp) and shows a fair amount of power.  Unlike Grady Little, who never seemed to believe in Ethier, Joe Torre has continued to favor him over his veteran alternatives (Pierre and Jones).

Fred Lewis - DH/OF - San Francisco Giants

As a bit of an honorable mention, I'd like to bring Fred Lewis to your attention.  He's been asked to fill some pretty big shoes, taking over for Barry Bonds in left field.  Last season, many scouts thought he was a pretty borderline prospect, even after his much-publicized cycle.  However, the Giants chose to give him an everyday shot this season (what did they have to lose?) and it seems to have paid off.  He looks like Granderson-lite, hitting out of the leadoff spot.  He's got great speed, power to all fields, and hits for a decent average (.284), but also has a propensity to strikeout (114 K).  Granderson raised his OBP in each of his first three seasons.  If Lewis can do the same, while developing 15-20 HR power, he will be a very valuable part of San Francisco's new look.