Mystifying Preseason Trades: Julio Lugo

The Cardinals confirmed this morning that they'll be sending Julio Lugo to Baltimore for a player to be named later.  The move was made possible, in part, by the fact that Brendan Ryan's rehab has gone much faster than expected and he appears on course to play Opening Day.  Cardinals skipper, Tony LaRussa, endorsed the move because it made his roster math a little simpler, allowing him to keep Joe Mather, Nick Stavinoha, and Allen Craig, young players who have made strong showings this spring.  I'd like to offer an alternative viewpoint.

First of all, what surprises me about this deal is that St. Louis will get nothing in return.  It is highly unlikely that the player to be named later will be anything more than organizational depth.  Moreover, whatever St. Louis (and now Baltimore) gets from Lugo is absolutely free production, as the Red Sox are paying his 2010 salary in its entirety.  It's rare to have a useful veteran player like Lugo on your bench who costs you essentially zero dollars.  Lugo played quite well down the stretch for the Cardinals, hitting .277 with a 784 OPS.  He is easily as good an offensive player as Brendan Ryan, though Ryan is the superior defender.

Lugo was, however, the Cardinals best back-up plan at short, something which should be taken into serious consideration following Ryan's back problems this spring.  Felipe Lopez, who hasn't spent significant time at shortstop since 2007, and was never as strong there as he is at second base, becomes the alternative to Ryan.  Were Ryan to miss extensive time, the Cardinals up-the-middle defense would take a major hit, as Lopez would not only represent a more drastic decline at short than Lugo, but the team would also miss his defense at second base, where Skip Schumaker, a natural outfielder, would have to play full-time again.

Lugo was also perfectly suited to LaRussa's managerial tendencies.  Although primarily a shortstop, he has played extended innings at second and some time at third and even in the outfield.  Positional flexibility is something that LaRussa, who loves to play matchup baseball, covets.  Lugo was among his only middle infield options, while guys like Mather, Craig, and Stavinoha are very limited defensively.

When I previewed the NL Central this spring, and did my offseason prospectus for the Cardinals this winter, my primary concern was the Cardinals lack of depth.  They are playing without a parachute at several positions.  Obviously, an injury to one of their big four - Pujols, Carpenter, Holliday, and Wainwright - would be devastating, but now that they've parted ways with Lugo and Rick Ankiel, they could be seriously hampered by an injury to Ryan or Colby Rasmus, as Skip Schumaker is probaby the back-up centerfielder.  Perhaps John Mozeliak is planning on being as active this July as he was last year, when he reinvigorated the Cardinals by adding Holliday, Lugo, Mark DeRosa, and John Smoltz, but such reinforcements come at a hefty price and the competition for them is likely to be stiff.

Some pundits believe that the Cardinals path to the postseason is the easiest in baseball, but I disagree.  While it's true that no team in the NL Central made a big offseason splash, the Cubs, Reds, and Brewers all figure to be better than they were in 2009, thanks to the return of injured players (Aramis Ramirez, Joey Votto, etc.), the development of key youngsters (Yovani Gallardo, Jay Bruce, etc.), and the saavy addition of role-playing free agents (Randy Wolf, Orlando Cabrera, etc.).  In fact, it is the Cardinals who appear to have taken the biggest step backwards, having parted ways with Lugo, Ankiel, DeRosa, and Joel Pineiro.  What can they expect from David Freese?  Is Brad Penny a suitable third starter?  Will Ryan Franklin continue to be a dominant closer?  Can they really expect to again have two Cy Young contenders?

I'm certainly not rooting against or betting against the Cardinals, who usually find a way to exceed expectations, but I don't think they'll be able to run away and hide, as they did during the second half of last season.  Health and depth will play a major role in deciding the Central, and by gifting Julio Lugo to the Orioles, the Cardinals made themselves less prepared to compensate in both departments.

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers