In case it hasn't already become clear, you can expect to see a lot of Brewers coverage this season. The Crew, who have been among my favorite franchises ever since Doug Melvin took over as GM, have an especially high Narrative Likability Factor in 2011. As I discussed this offseason, with the free agency of Prince Fielder imminent, the Brewers are "going for it," as was clearly evidenced by the mortgaging of the farm system for the short-term services of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
One of the reasons to root for Milwaukee in 2011 is that, led by Melvin, the Brewers are among the franchises who have been "doing it right" according to the conventional wisdom regarding success in smaller markets. The core of the team is homegrown. With the exception of the ill-timed signing of Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee has avoided buying up free agents at a premium, instead extending young players from their own system at discount rates (Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, etc.) and handing out low-risk deals to veteran role players (Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Nyjer Morgan, etc.).
As a result, the Brewers not only have an impressive cast of talent, but they have an identity, as most of the core players have been together since they were minor-leaguers. That identity isn't only good for clubhouse camaraderie, but is also appealing to the fan base, which has quietly become one of the most supportive in the National League. Since Melvin took over in 2003, Brewers attendance has gone from 50% of capacity to over 80% of capacity, an increase of nearly 15,000 fans per game.
As was revealed by the Opening Day payroll numbers released earlier this week, Melvin's strategy for building a contender in Milwaukee has emphasized commitments from ownership, as well as deft drafting and player development, timely acquisitions, and improved marketing. The 2011 Brewers represent the largest percentage increase in payroll of any team in baseball since 2004, which happens to be Melvin's second year on the job. Unlike ownership in many other markets, the Brewers owners met improved support from the community with a deeper investment in the long term competitiveness in the team. Milwaukee's $85.5 Million Opening Day payroll puts them in the middle of the pack (#17) among all MLB franchises, but it represents a 211% increase since '04. Melvin grew this payroll gradually (in step with attendance) until he reached the plateau he's maintained pretty consistently since 2008.
Pundits like myself can commend Melvin all we want for his personnel decisions and his deft economizing, but the fact remains, he is nearing the point where he will be judged by his results. As fun as this collection of Brewers players are to watch, they've got only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance during Melvin's tenure. With the face of the franchise in his final season, it's imperative the Brewers improve upon that record. During the Opening Weekend against the reigning NL Central champs, the Cincinnati Reds, you could see that the pressure was on. The Brewers hit just .223 against the Reds, with an abysmal 26/5 K/BB ratio. Their bullpen got roughed up, including a painful three-run walkoff homer against closer John Axford on Opening Day.
But the Brewers bounced back in a major way this week, taking three in a row from Atlanta, another presumed NL powerhouse. Gallardo asserted his Ace status by stopping the losing streak with a dominant complete-game two-hitter and Axford netted saves in back-to-back appearances. The Brewers need to carry this momentum forward, as their performance in the season's first two months will say a lot about this team. They will have to face Atlanta and Cincinnati again, as well as Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles before Greinke's anticipated return. If they can stay above .500 during this opening stretch, Greinke's comeback could provide them with a little confidence going into interleague play.
(Greinke is due back sometime around the middle of May. Considering his injury is similar to that which delayed the start of Cliff Lee's season in 2010, I don't worry too much about his ability to stay on the field and pitch well once he returns. Lee, after all, was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball last year, despite his late start.)
The biggest challenge for the Brewers comes in June, when they open a 15-game tussle with some of the best teams in the American League. The schedule-makers did not do Milwaukee any favors. They will face the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road, as well as the Rays at home, and their "interleague rival," the AL Central Champion Twins, home and away. Four AL teams, all of which won 85 or more games in 2010 and all of whom are expected to perform at close to that level, if not better, in 2011. Compare that to Cincinnati, who gets the Yankees at home, skips the Red Sox entirely, and gets to play their rivalry series against the lowly Indians. Or the Cardinals, who somehow manage to avoid both New York and Boston, plus get six games against arguably the worst team in all of baseball, the Royals. It would be a substantial accomplishment for the Brewers to get near .500 against their AL opponents, while their primary rivals will have a significantly easier time of it.
It's important to note that, even when the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency this coming offseason, they will not be going back to the drawing board. Somewhat ingeniously, Melvin has gotten Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo under team control through 2015. Greinke, Marcum, and Corey Hart remain under contract through at least 2012. As such, it would be a mistake to argue that if they miss the playoffs in 2011 their window will absolutely be closed. However, their is no reason to believe the Reds will be getting any worse, while 2012 will bring the Cubs some much-needed salary relief, they could be major players in the free agent market this coming winter. While the NL Central is already a rather deep, competitive division, it could get even tougher in coming years. Yet another reason Milwaukee's management clearly feels their time is now.
Showing posts with label Rickie Weeks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rickie Weeks. Show all posts
Friday, April 08, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team
As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux. I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job. Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars. I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati. In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011. I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.
Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees
What's new, right? Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true. For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked. After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world. Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues). The argument for Martin goes like this:
1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with. So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.
2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline. He's going to get on base. Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).
3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).
4.) He's still just 28.
(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price. I recommend this course of action in deep leagues. If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals
I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008. The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors. This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer). Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring. Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory. Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.
Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers
You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010. Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck. Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning. It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age. He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field. Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem? Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia. You want a bastion of health at this thin position? Get in line.
Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do. Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke." It just doesn't happen. His belly has disappeared. His skills haven't.
Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals
Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado. Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign. Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues. Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection. Buy with confidence.
Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers
There are different breeds of "sleepers." Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species. That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far. Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton. This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder. A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield. When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case. If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else. This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS. Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.
Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins
For some reason, people hate Delmon Young. I don't know exactly why it is. Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into. Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton. To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid. I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old. Remember what you were doing when you were 24? Who's the bigger "bust"? Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs. Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances. I wouldn't expect him to match that total. But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline. I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.
Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds
I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!" Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom. Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons. Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox. Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach. And, really, that's about all he can't hit. Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS. Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.
The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:
Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins
Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.
Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.
Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.
Here are the underrated veterans:
Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs
No more Lou Pinella. No more Derrek Lee. No more Carlos Silva. No more Milton Bradley. Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP. I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011. As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues. Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.
Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians
In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong. Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt). Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP. Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010. This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.
Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees
What's new, right? Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true. For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked. After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world. Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues). The argument for Martin goes like this:
1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with. So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.
2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline. He's going to get on base. Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).
3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).
4.) He's still just 28.
(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price. I recommend this course of action in deep leagues. If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals
I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008. The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors. This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer). Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring. Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory. Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.
Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers
You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010. Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck. Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning. It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age. He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field. Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem? Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia. You want a bastion of health at this thin position? Get in line.
Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do. Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke." It just doesn't happen. His belly has disappeared. His skills haven't.
Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals
Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado. Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign. Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues. Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection. Buy with confidence.
Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers
There are different breeds of "sleepers." Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species. That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far. Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton. This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder. A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield. When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case. If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else. This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS. Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.
Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins
For some reason, people hate Delmon Young. I don't know exactly why it is. Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into. Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton. To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid. I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old. Remember what you were doing when you were 24? Who's the bigger "bust"? Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs. Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances. I wouldn't expect him to match that total. But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline. I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.
Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds
I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!" Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom. Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons. Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox. Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach. And, really, that's about all he can't hit. Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS. Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.
The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:
Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins
Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.
Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.
Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.
Here are the underrated veterans:
Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs
No more Lou Pinella. No more Derrek Lee. No more Carlos Silva. No more Milton Bradley. Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP. I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011. As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues. Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.
Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians
In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong. Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt). Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP. Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010. This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.
Sunday, January 02, 2011
The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)
A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense). The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "O-Dog would probably sign with your fantasy team, if you're willing to give him a three-year contract." (Second Base Preview)
I've been bemoaning it for months, but I'll be damned if it doesn't continue to infuriate me that Orlando Hudson doesn't have a job, in February, for the second year in a row. He is, nonetheless, included on my list, along with fellow unsigned free agent, Felipe Lopez.
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?" The pickings were slim. But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.
Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him. He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI. Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.
5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]
There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level. What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency. Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders." Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.
Cano offers a slightly different quandary. He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust. I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ. Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters. Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities. Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half. In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.
8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)
These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others. Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high. I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010. However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.
The other three are inversions of Roberts. Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do. Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running. Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here. He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis). The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.
12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
This tier is all about "upside." Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential. One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury. In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years. Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay. Be cautious though. It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.
McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell. As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base. I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it. McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish. He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors. Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again. The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash. By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.
17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)
A couple of oldies, but goodies. If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable. Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh). I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.
My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half. Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?" The pickings were slim. But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.
Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him. He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI. Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.
5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]
There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level. What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency. Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders." Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.
Cano offers a slightly different quandary. He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust. I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ. Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters. Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities. Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half. In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.
8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)
These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others. Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high. I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010. However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.
The other three are inversions of Roberts. Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do. Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running. Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here. He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis). The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.
12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
This tier is all about "upside." Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential. One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury. In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years. Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay. Be cautious though. It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.
McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell. As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base. I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it. McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish. He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors. Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again. The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash. By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.
17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)
A couple of oldies, but goodies. If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable. Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh). I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.
My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half. Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
See C.C.'s Crew
As a Cubs fan, I must say this through clenched teeth, but the Brewers may be the most soulful team in baseball, and their great team chemistry, bolstered by the additions of C. C. Sabathia and Ray Durham, combined with enormous talent, has made them into the most dangerous team in the National League the second half of the season. Since acquiring the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, the Brew Crew has gone 9-4 (and they're leading the Cardinals in the third game of a four-game set as I write this). Sabathia has been no mere confidence booster. He is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 24 K in 24 innings coming into tonight, and has yet to allow a hit in five innings this evening. However, his "confidence-boosting" may be even more critical. Since he arrived in Milwaukee on July 6th, these are the numbers for some of the critical Brewers, not all of whom were running hot throughout the second half. Bill Hall (3B): .361, 9 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 1117 OPS
Ryan Braun (LF): .339, 9 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1087 OPS
Prince Fielder (1B): .327, 6 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1054 OPS
J. J. Hardy (SS): .321, 11 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 956 OPS
Rickie Weeks (2B): .295, 14 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 881 OPS
I would like to draw special attention to Bill Hall, who lost his starting role to Russell Branyan in June, but is now back to playing every day and hit game-winning homers in each of the first two days of the critical Cardinals series, putting the Brewers alone in second place in the NL Central. Hall, apparently a close friend of Sabathia, is looking like this year's version of Jacque Jones (whose huge second-half improvement bolstered the Cubs into last year's playoffs).
This is also a good time to salute Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, and the Milwaukee Brewers organization, who now have six African-American players on their active roster. Sadly, that's the most of any team in baseball. Undoubtedly you will be reading in the coming months that the Brewers rely on "natural athletes," get by purely "on talent," won't be able to "handle the pressure," and are "disrespecting the game" by untucking their shirts when they shake hands after a win, the aphorisms which expose the not-so-subtle racism which is still very much a part of the baseball sportswriting and broadcasting establishment. Don't be misled! The Brewers "untucked" tradition is a testament to Mike Cameron's father, symbolic of a hard day's work and a job well done. Cameron, Hall, and Ray Durham are grizzled veterans who have made long big league careers thanks in large part to their work ethic, diligence, studiousness, and willingness to do whatever necessary to help their team. None of them was drafted higher than the 5th round. Hall has play four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, CF) in the last three seasons, all of them demanding. Cameron is a three-time gold-glover winner, esteemed around the league both for his personality and contributions on and off the field. His Cam4Kids foundation, established in 2001 is dedicated to helping inner-city kids. He is active is several other charity organizations as well. Many though Durham's career was over after he hit .218 with the Giants in 2007, but he has brought is average back above .290 and his OBP above .380 in '08, right in line with his career numbers. Despite spending his entire career as a starter, he immediately accepted his role as utility infielder and pinch hitter for the Brewers, embracing the opportunity to mentor Rickie Weeks and get long sought-after opportunity to go deep into the playoffs. Since Durham arrived, Weeks is batting .400 with 6 runs, 2 extra-base hits, and 4 RBI, in four games.
I've sung the praises of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for almost two years now, so you already know I consider them the most talented duo in all of baseball. But there are now many more reasons to Beware the Brewers!
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