Jason Bay v. Cynicism

It has been reported that the Mets are on the verge of signing a long-term contract with Jason Bay, the left-fielder, most recently of the Red Sox, who is probably most famous as the guy who Manny Ramirez got traded for. New York has reportedly given Bay $66 Million over four years, with a vesting option which could add a fifth year at $14 Million.

So, while Bay will not become baseball's 20th Hundred Million Dollar Man (if recent reports are accurate, that title will fall to Matt Holliday), if the fifth year vests, his contract would be among the largest dozen or so ever given to an outfielder, just behind Torii Hunter (5 yr./$90 Mil.) and just ahead of J. D. Drew (5 yr./$70 Mil.).

Several commentators, including a fair number of Mets fans, have criticized the Bay signing. Rob Neyer calls Bay a "slow power hitter who can't really play the outfield." And while I'm usually prone to agree with Rob and I share his skepticism to some extent, I'm generally quite surprised by all the negativity. Jason Bay, it would appear to me, is the kind of guy who deserves to get paid. In six full seasons, he has never played less than 120 games. Four times he's topped 30 HR and 100 RBI. In only one season (2007) did his OPS dip below 895. He's soft-spoken and popular with his teammates. When he came over to Boston, in the middle of a highly-scrutinized pennant race, replacing one of the best players in the franchise's history, he really rose to the occasion, hitting .315 with 29 RBI in his first month with the team. What's not to like?

Well, there is the question of his "slowness." Early in his career Bay was a 20/20 man, who even played a little centerfield, but a knee surgery in 2006 has limited him somewhat. It shouldn't go unnoticed, however, that Bay is still a smart and effective baserunner. He stole ten bases in '08 without being caught and thirteen in '09 (only being caught three times), bringing his career stolen base rate to an admirable 82.5%. He may not be a burner, but this isn't exactly Paul Konerko either.

Bay's defense is also considered a liability, and there is more substantial proof to that effect. He's always had a noodle arm, but in recent years his overall outfield performance has really gone in the tank. In his first three years with the Pirates, his UZR stayed right around the league average, perfectly acceptable for a hitter of his quality, but from '07 to '09 he has posted Ultimate Zone Ratings of -11.5, -18.4, and -13.0. Pure faith in UZR would probably lead us to rank him as quite possibly the worst everyday left-fielders in all of baseball, and left field isn't exactly a position known for defense. Of course, for half of that time he was playing left field at Fenway, which is probably the single most abnormal positional space in the whole league, so I think we have to question the reliability of his recent defensive metrics. Is he a Gold-Glover? Absolutely not. Is he as bad as Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez? I sincerely doubt it.

Buster Olney sagely points out that last year the Mets primary left-fielders were Gary Sheffield and Daniel Murphy, neither of whom will probably ever play the position again, so Jason Bay is a considerable upgrade. The Mets other outfielders, Carlos Betran and Jeff Francoeur, are both excellent defenders (especially Beltran), which should compensate slightly for whatever range Bay lacks.

In the same column, Olney carefully analyzes Bay's homers from '09 on Hit Tracker, responding to the other major criticism against Bay, that his power won't translate to spacious Citi Field. He concludes that Bay would've still hit 30 HR as a Met, rather than the 36 he hit as a Red Sock (sp?). I think the Mets would be perfectly happy with that total.

Last week I argued that the Mets best course of action this offseason was to "stand pat," rather than pursue expensive free agents like Bay and Joel Pineiro. I knew they wouldn't go that route, but I thought it made for a nice hypothetical. I still don't think they have the firepower to catch the Phillies, because even if they follow the Bay signing with the acquisition of Pineiro, Ben Sheets, or Erik Bedard, they won't have the rotational depth of a serious contender. In the end, regardless of the what the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, they are going to need everything to go right in 2010 if they are even to have a shot at the Wild Card in a division which features the powerhouse Phillies and two other solid franchises, the Braves and the Marlins.

Whether or not New York gets the resurgence of power they expect from Bay and David Wright (who hit only 10 HR in '09) is dependent mainly on the health of Carlos Beltran (81 games in '09) and Jose Reyes (36 games in '09). If both are fully healthy, than the Mets lineup looks like something to be reckoned with. If not, than Bay and Wright will be consistently pitched around, just as Wright and Sheffield were in '09, and the run-scoring will slow to a trickle. Even more important is the health of Johan Santana, who missed the final six weeks of '09 with an elbow injury which required surgery. If the Mets have to enter next season without their horse, the season will be over before it begins.

Bay Believer

During his four and a half seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates - on the verge of becoming the lowliest franchise in major league history - Jason Bay hardly played a meaningful game after his perennial appearance as the team's sole representative to the All-Star Game in early July.  While the more appealing story may continue to be the postseason heroics of the man(ny) who used to play left field in Boston, his replacement, Bay, is playing as if possessed with a fury not unlike that of Barry Bonds, another former Pirate left-fielder, during 2002, the only year he made it to the World Series.  In the first six playoff games of his career he is batting .458 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 5 Runs Scored.  Additionally, he has played an exceptional outfield, cutting off balls in the gap and throwing out runners who try to advance.  I find it hard to applaud Theo Epstein's continued attempts at white-washing the BoSox clubhouse, but Jason Bay is helping him once again look like a genius.   

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.