Tout Wars Mixed 2011 Pt. 1: Backstops & The Bruce

The 2011 Tout Wars Mixed League Auction began with the nomination of Jay Bruce.  Every year a few players generate an abundance of buzz during the fantasy baseball prep season.  This year, nobody has been more buzzworthy than Bruce.  Not yet 24, the Reds rightfielder is now three seasons into his major-league career and in 2010 he managed to both stay off the disabled list and show enough patience to manage a respectable average (.281).  A torrential second half (.306 AVG, 15 HR, 951 OPS) adds to the perception that Bruce is on the verge of superstardom, as many have been expecting every since he broke into the bigs.

So, perhaps, Andy Behrens of Yahoo!, Tout Wars Mixed defending champion, believed Bruce was the perfect player to generate active, maybe even excessive, bidding from the 15 fantasy baseball "experts" who were itching to start spending.  Indeed, more than half the assembled players got a bid in before Dave Feldman of MLB.com rostered Bruce for $19.  Although by no means an obscene number (the experts do occasionally practice restraint!), it did turn out to be more than was paid for more established outfielders like Curtis Granderson ($18), Shane Victorino ($17), and Corey Hart ($14).  It was the first of several cases of Touts going to the mat for popular young "breakthrough" candidates.  Clayton Kershaw, for instance, cost Fred Zinkie of FantasyBaseball.com $19, more than former Cy Young candidates like Zack Greinke ($18), Dan Haren ($18), Ubaldo Jimenez ($17), and David Price ($17), none of whom are exactly "over the hill" themselves.

Following a year in which many of the best fantasy producers - guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Jered Weaver, and Jimenez - had been relatively unheralded in the preseason, the temptation to pay for "upside" was even greater.  Minor bidding wars developed at some surprising places.  The 21-year-old Florida outfielder, Mike Stanton, who, in both his impressive power and his 34.3 K%, is very reminiscent of Jay Bruce circa 2008, somehow managed to cost more than Bruce, and more than Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, or B. J. Upton.  Another sophomore uberprospect, Carlos Santana, whose rookie season was cut short by an unfortunate and catastrophic collision at home plate, though he possesses all of 46 games of major-league experience, was Tout Wars second most expensive backstop, topping steady producers like Victor Martinez and Brian McCann, as well as the NL Rookie of the Year and postseason hero, Buster Posey.

Catchers, in general, were nominated early and often.  Before the first break, Joe Mauer ($27), Posey ($23), McCann ($21), Geovany Soto ($17), Yadier Molina ($11), Matt Wieters ($10), John Jaso ($7), A. J. Pierzynski ($5), Russell Martin ($4), Nick Hundley ($3), Jesus Montero ($2), and Yorbit Torrealba ($2) had all been rostered.  Certainly, this explains to some extent the furious bidding on Santana ($24), Mike Napoli ($20), and others, later in the day, when the backstop pool was getting thin.  The Touts took very diverse approaches to the run on catching.  Zinkie and Seth Trachtman saw an opportunity to create a large marginal advantage at the position by nabbing two premium players.  Trachtman spent nearly 20% of his budget on V-Mart and Mauer.  Others, like Scott Swanay, The Fantasy Sherpa, and Nando Di Fino of WSJ.com, more or less punted the position.

But from my perspective, it was Behrens who most stealthily handled the problem.  Seven rounds into the nominations, when most of the participants had showed their hands, either by netting backstops or moving into the "scrubs" portion of their strategy, Behrens brought home Miguel Montero for exactly half the price of Santana.  Montero is a 27-year-old D-Back, who, when healthy, has shown considerably power and respectable average for the position.  And, of course, he falls into that "post-hype" prime, possessing both upside and experience.  Near the auction's conclusion, Behrens nominated and won Carlos Ruiz ($3).  Nobody gets goosebumps watching Carlos Ruiz, but Chooch has all the advantage of ballpark, lineup protection, and playing time certainty that one looks for in a #2 catcher, and, his excellent bat control (193/188 K/BB for his career) give him a high likelihood of providing a respectable average (for the position).  In 2010, he did even more than that, hitting .302.  From Montero and Ruiz, Behrens won't get Mauer and V-Mart level production, certainly, but he will get considerably more than 30% of their output, which is the price he paid for his tandem.

Next up...Tout Wars reveals that "Stubs & Scrubs" is still alive and well, and with good reason.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Bengie Molina ate one of my keepers." (Catcher Preview)

A couple weeks ago, it looked all but certain that the eldest Molina was headed to New York, but Brian Sabean swooped in at the last minute and saved Omar Minaya from further embarrassment.  Giants fans can look at the move with ambivalence.  Molina, despite his pathetic on-base percentages, is a decent contact hitter with good power (for a catcher), who is a dependable defensive presence and is familiar with the pitching staff.  When your success is deeply tied to the starting rotation, as San Francisco's so clearly is, it's hard to hand the catcher position to a rookie, no matter how promising he is.

From a fantasy perspective, this is bad, bad news.  Molina is a known commodity who doesn't excite anybody, because his decent power totals (20 HR, 80 RBI in '09) are offset by mediocre performances elsewhere (52 R, .265 AVG).  Molina is the kind of catcher you get stuck with late in a draft or auction because you unwisely spent your funds elsewhere.  Buster Posey, on the other hand, when he was slated as the Giants primary backstop, was the kind of high-upside rookie that fantasy owners get all tweeked about, especially in keeper leagues.  Splitting time between two minor-league levels last season, Posey hit .325 with 18 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB, and a 947 OPS in just 115 games.  Obviously, there will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old at the major-league level, but given 450+ at-bats, I'd be willing to bet that Posey could outhit Molina, even as a rookie.  Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know.

The catcher position is, as usual, painfully thin.  There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop.

In leagues that require you to carry two active catchers, the strategy is much different.  In such leagues, the Molinas, Pierzynskis, and Ramon Hernandez's of the world are pure gold, merely because they are holding down regular ABs.  Only sixteen catchers got 400 plate appearances in 2009.  Only nine got as many as 500.  In a twelve-team league, that means more that half the owners were starting part-time players, perhaps juggling a couple of them, trying to guess which day Mike Scioscia would go with Jeff Mathis, or which day Jim Tracy would rest Yorvit Torrealba.  Needless to say, this can be a frustrating experience.  When Miguel Olivo goes yard on the Sunday afternoon you chose to start Jason Varitek, who ended up getting the night off, it's like leaving your windows down during a rainstorm the night after you paid full price for a car wash.  You're double fucked.

1. Joe Mauer (Twins)
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox)
3. Brian McCann (Braves)
4. Russell Martin (Dodgers)

These are, obviously, the cream of the crop, and with the exception of Martin, you'll have to pay through the nose to get them, even though they probably won't register as many ABs as a starting first-baseman or outfielder.  Moreover, each of the big three have had injury issues at some point during the last two seasons, which makes that second or third round pick even more unsettling.

Martin was horrible in 2009 and many will, justifiably, knock him down into the second or third tier, but I'm choosing instead to focus on how consistently good he was in his two previous seasons, during which he averaged 87 R, 16 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB, with a .286 AVG.  Those totals, especially the steals, are exceedingly rare out of the catcher position, so I'll happily have another go-round with Trane this spring, rather than settle for somebody who's yet to prove they can get anywhere near such numbers.