R.I.P. 2010 Cardinals?

In one of the first crucial series of September, the Rockies pulled off a four-game sweep over the Reds, who were the top team in the NL when the week began.  Cincinnati's five-game losing streak could have breathed new life into the second-place Cardinals, had they managed to capitalize on their softer schedule, but they managed to lose two out of three against the Brewers, and with 23 games remaining, the Reds magic number is 19, lowest in the National League, and the Cardinals have slid to 5.5 games (and, perhaps more importantly, three teams) back in the Wild Card.

This is not an insurmountable margin, certainly, and the Redbirds got off to a good start in their weekend series against the Wild Card leaders, the Braves, who have also scuffled lately.  But with San Francisco and Colorado playing well, the race for playoff berths has become a jumbled one and it is difficult to see a scenario where at least three of the six NL clubs who are ahead of St. Louis go into the tank.  Also, sad as it is for me to say, it is hard for me to see this club as capable of mounting the late-season blitzkrieg necessary to overcome that margin.  On May 3rd the Cardinals beat the Phillies to move to 18-8 and secure there largest lead of the season, five games.  Since then, they are 55-57, a thoroughly mediocre team, and in recent weeks they've been even worst, winning only five of their last fifteen contests, including series losses to Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee.  When you can't beat those teams in September, it's time to throw in the towel and start talking about what went wrong.

In March I believed it would be the Brewers who won the NL Central.  In retrospect, it was one of my sillier predictions of the preseason.  I did contend, however, that the Reds "could become a version of the '08 Rays" and, most presciently, I was compelled to predict that St. Louis would suffer from their apparent lack of depth.  "Playing without a parachute at several positions" was perhaps the most succinct description of the Cardinals flaws.

What has happened has been, in fact, rather more egregious than I would have expected.  The Cardinals key quartet - Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia - are all in the running for their league's highest individual honors, yet even they could not carry the lead balloon which is the remainder of the St. Louis roster.  The front three in the Cardinals starting rotation have won 45 games.  Nobody else on the St. Louis roster has won more than six.  And, to the even greater humiliation of the remaining roster, that six-game winner is the Cardinals closer, Ryan Franklin.

On offense, St. Louis faces a similar problem.  In limited playing time, Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, and David Freese have all been respectable, but the rest of the Cardinals roster is filled with players with sub-700 OPSs.  Second-baseman, Skip Schumaker (672 OPS), and catcher, Yadier Molina (655 OPS), have been disappointing, but not nearly so much as the rotating cast of career minor-leaguers, defensive replacements, and other team's crumbs who have manned the left side of the Cardinal infield.  Following a season-ending injury to Freese, the Cardinals handed third to veteran utility-man Felipe Lopez (638 OPS).  When he failed, they picked up Astros castaway Pedro Feliz (528).  The result: since May 30th, the Cardinals have gotten one, that's right, one lonely homer from the hot corner.  That actually looks fairly good compared to what they've gotten from Brendan Ryan (563 OPS), the St. Louis shortstop who holds the dubious honor of being the least productive player in the National League.  Out of the 91 players who have been handed 400+ plate appearance so far in 2010, he ranks dead last in Hits, OPS, OBP, and SLG.  He's 90th in batting average, 89th in RBI, and 87th in Runs and HR.

To sum things up, here's a look at the production the Cardinals get from 1B (a.k.a. Albert Pujols) compared to what they get combined from 3B & SS.

Albert Pujols: .311/.403/.590, 137 G, 522 AB, 99 R, 162 H, 36 HR, 102 RBI, 83 BB, 65 K
3B & SS: .241/.309/.334, 274 G, 1011 AB, 122 R, 246 H, 13 HR, 98 RBI, 91 BB, 189 K

In the second half things have gotten even worse for their offense. Since the All-Star Break, only Pujols and Holliday have more than 20 RBI.  Only Pujols and Holliday have hit more than 3 HR.  Only Pujols, Holliday, and Randy Winn have managed to keep their OPS above 780.  It's not hard to imagine how opposing managers might strategize.  Since the break, eleven of Prince Albert's sixteen homers are solo shots.  Seven of Holliday nine have come with either the bases empty or just Albert standing at first base.    Unsurprisingly, the rank first and second on the team in free passes.  Clearly, opposing teams are not pitching to the dynamic duo in situation where they can put a game out of reach.

Sadly, the Cardinals now face a scenario not unlike that which derailed the once-promising Cubs, just over a year ago.  Having won the division in '09, the Cards were heavily favored to win it again in 2010.  Most believed that this was a team designed to go deep in October.  At the Inside Pulse roundtable in March, I was the only one of six contributers who didn't pick them to win the division.  This was supposed to be "their year."  But their season was not derailed by particularly bad luck.  They did not have a rash of key injuries.  In the form of Jaime Garcia and Jon Jay, in fact, they even had a couple of pleasant surprises.

Basically, this team isn't good enough as it's currently constituted.  With a payroll approaching $95 Million, that's a problem.  John Mozeliak has some tough negotiations in his future.  At the end of the season, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will once again be free agents.  They've had an amazing tenure in St. Louis, but in recent years have had some vocal disputes with the front office.  This offseason there will be openings in L.A., Chicago, and Atlanta, maybe elsewhere.  Could they be persuaded to take on a new challenge?

In truth, piloting the Dodgers may be less challenging than nursing this Cardinals roster.  If the Cardinals had gone to the World Series this year, as many expected, I think it is safe to say LaRussa and Pujols would have both taken extensions this offseason.  But the failure to qualify for the playoffs and the uncertainty regarding LaRussa's tenure may convince Albert that he needs to test the free agent market in the offseason of 2011.  For St. Louis fans, that's a nightmare akin to Lebron's exodus, and it would almost certainly precipitate the departure of Yadier Molina and Chris Carpenter when their contracts expire the following year.  The window is closing on this incarnation of Cardinals.  In an effort to pry it open for a few more years, Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt are going to need to be willing to resort to drastic measure this offseason.

MVP? (or NYC)

I like David Wright. I certainly like him a lot more than Derek Jeter. But with all the promotion of him for NL MVP, I'd have to say he's benefiting from the Jeter treatment (or, if you prefer, "the New York media bias"). Wright is more deserving of consideration than Jeter was last year, but he should by no means be the favorite.

It is essentially a four-horse race for the NL's premier award (much more intriguing than the one-horse race in the AL). The injury to Albert Pujols and the Cardinals collapse eliminates a perennial MVP favorite. Ryan Howard made a push to defend his 2006 crown, but a 7-for-45 stretch at the beginning of September probably put his campaign to rest. Hanley Ramirez will no doubt garner some much-deserved votes, but it is difficult to get elected league MVP when your team's record is worse than the Washington Nationals. That leaves Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, and Wright. All four play for teams that are still in contention with a week to play, although it is reasonable to suspect that only Wright's Mets will actually advance, which may be his biggest advantage.

If you're looking for offensive statistics, Holliday is clearly your man. The 2007 winner of the Jay Buhner look-alike contest leads the NL in average (.341), RBI (131), Hits (205), and 2B (48). He is 2nd is SLG (.616), 3rd in OPS (1.017), 4th in HR (36) and Runs (112). Whether it is fair or not, those gaudy numbers will be viewed with suspicion because of Colorado's notoriously hitter-friendly conditions. It is true that Holliday pace away from Coors Field is a little more modest, though still admirable (.303-22 HR-108 RBI-867 OPS).

Milwaukee's Prince Fielder, the runaway 2007 NL HR-King, is powerful everywhere he goes, with 24 homers in his friendly confines and 23 on the road. He's batted a respectable .291 with 117 RBI, 107 R, and a 1.007 OPS. I've heard several commentators suggest that Fielder's MVP chances ride upon Milwaukee getting into the playoffs. I find this logic somewhat flawed, seeing as players like Wright and Rollins take already potent offenses and make them into powerhouses, while Fielder makes an at-best league average offense into a serious contender. Every year, MVP discussions revolve around the success of a player's franchise. Notably, last year Albert Pujols criticized voters for electing Howard because the Phillies didn't make it into October. If Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Colorado all scuffle this week, does that mean Wright should be the default MVP, even if he takes a ten-day O-fer? Personally, I agree that players like Hanley Ramirez can be ruled out of the equation (unless they have truly superlative seasons) because they never played a meaningful game after July, but anybody who is tested by the pennant race, whether their team makes it or not, deserves equal consideration.

Fielder will also be criticized because he is a defensive hack. That's absolutely valid. Defense should be taken into consideration when MVP awards are being handed out, by definition. However, if you're ready to anoint David Wright on those grounds, you need to look past reputation. Sure, Wright makes some spectacular highlight-reel plays (much like that Yankee shortstop). But, those of us who keep watching Baseball Tonight after we see the New York scores know that he isn't the only third baseman in the NL capable of creating Web Gems. Moreover, he isn't nearly as consistent as Scott Rolen, Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, and Pedro Feliz. Wright is a league-average third baseman. Granted, in a league of very good third basemen. Should he receive some credit for that? Sure. Is it equivalent to 10 HR and 20 RBI? No way. (By the way, it should be noted that Matt Holliday has been a very solid outfielder this year. In fact, if Gold Gloves were still handed out to left-fielders, he would probably be running neck-and-neck with Arizona's Eric Byrnes.)

In another aside, Bill James invented a fashionable statistic a few years back, Runs Created. It is supposed to assess a players overall worth. I don't understand how it works exactly, but it seems to be a pretty competent method of assessment. It is interesting to note that Wright, Fielder, and Holliday rank 4, 5, and 6 in the NL in Runs Created per 27 Outs. (They rank behind Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, and Chase Utley, all of whom would be in this discussion if they didn't miss so many games) All of them have been worth between 8.43 and 8.48 RC/27, which is a good indication of how close this race really is.

That brings us to the long-shot case for Jimmy Rollins. Rollins has a lot going against him. In the last 25 years, only three position players have won the MVP who weren't prototypical middle-of-the-order/power hitters: Ichiro Suzuki (2001), Rickey Henderson (1990), and Willie McGee (1985). Making his road more difficult is the fact that only three MVPs in the last fifteen years have come from teams on which another player finished in the top 5 in voting: Ichiro (2001), Jeff Kent (2000), and Ivan Rodriguez (1999). Rollins will undoubtedly lose a few critical votes to teammates Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Rollins will not have a top-ten finish in average (.293), HR (28), RBI (88), OPS (869), or RC/27 (6.73). However, when you add some of his peripheral numbers to very respectable totals in those core categories, you realize that his season has truly been something special. He leads the league in runs (129) and 3B (18) by a sizable margin. He's second in hits (197). He will get serious consideration for the Gold Glove at shortstop. And he's stolen 37 (5th in NL) bases in 43 attempts. Much has been made of Curtis Granderson's 20-20-20-20 season, as should be the case seeing as it is only the third in baseball history. Nobody seems to have noticed that Rollins needs only two more triples and two more homers to go 30-20-30-30. Not a single player has ever done that.