Ruben Amaro Digs the Long Ball

Preliminary reports indicate that Ryan Howard has signed a five-year $125 Million contract extension with the Phillies, making it quite likely he'll finish his career in Philadelphia.  By the time the contract runs out in 2016, Howard will be 37-years-old.

Ryan Howard hit 220 HR in his first five seasons of his career.  Nobody else has done that.  Ryan Howard has led the majors in RBI for three of the last four seasons, something which hadn't been done since Cecil Fielder did it in the early '90s.  He won the MVP Award in '06 and has finished in the top five in MVP voting every year since.  So, why is Rob Neyer calling this contract a "big bowl of wrong"?!?

First off, let's look at this from the Phillies perspective.  Howard is teddy bear.  A big, smiling, happy-go-lucky slugger who hawks cheesesteaks on national television and has his own outreach program for underprivileged kids.  Although he may not be as talented as Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, or Barry Bonds, he has a squeaky-clean reputation, the only untainted player to have a 55+ HR season in the drug-testing era.  He fills up the stat sheet and in recent years he has dedicated himself to conditioning, thus improving his defense and his speed (he stole eight bases in '09!), and potentially prolonging his career.

What Neyer sees, however, is that even after all those improvements, Howard was 25th in the league in WAR in 2009 (4.9), tied with Dustin Pedroia, Ichiro Suzuki, and Nyjer Morgan.  He was eighth amongst first-baseman, trailing Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Derrek Lee.  His extraordinary HR and RBI totals are inflated by the Phillies homer-happy ballpark and the exceptional talent assembled around him, and balanced by his massive strikeout totals and declining walk rate.

Howard entered the league relatively late, at the age of 25.  He's significantly older than Fielder, Cabrera, and Gonzalez.  And, although he hasn't been in the majors nearly as long, he's actually slightly older than Pujols and Teixeira.

Despite his improved conditioning, there is always concern about how the aging process will effect a slugger with Howard's body type.  Big Papi is only the most recent reminder of the danger of severe and relatively early decline in, pardon the vernacular, "pudgy" players.  According to Baseball-Reference, the five most similar players to Howard up to age 30 (his current age), are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey, and David Ortiz.  Let's take those one at a time...

Sexson reached the bigs earlier, at the age of 23, and averaged 36 HR and 112 RBI per season with Cleveland and Milwaukee from '99 to '03.  He signed his megadeal (4 yrs./$50 Mil.) with Seattle at the age of 30 and posted two solid seasons (36 HR, 114 RBI, 875 OPS) before suffering a precipitous decline.  He managed only a 698 OPS and 33 HR in his final two seasons and was out of the game at the age of 33.

Prince's estranged father, Cecil, who was far more husky than either his son or Ryan Howard, was the only player to hit 50 HR in a season between 1977 and 1995.  Big Daddy's biggest seasons came in his late 20s, when he led the league in RBI for three consecutive seasons.  From '90-'93 he averaged 40 HR and 126 RBI, with an 861 OPS, in a loaded lineup that had him hitting behind Tony Phillips, Lou Whitaker, and Alan Trammell, and in front of Kirk Gibson, Mickey Tettleton, and Rob Deer.  Fielder signed his megadeal (3 yrs./$30 Mil.) at the age of 31.  His OPS remained more or less steady for three seasons, though he struggled with injuries and hitting in a less productive lineup.  His last good season (39 HR, 117 RBI, 834 OPS) came in '96, at the age of 32.  He lasted only two more years, never again hitting more than 17 HR, and was out of baseball at the age of 34.

Mo "Hit Dog" Vaughn, like Howard, had his first big season at the age of 25.  With Boston from '93-'97 he averaged 36 HR, 110 RBI, and an outstanding 974 OPS.  He won the MVP in 1995.  He signed a six-year, $78 Million contract with Anaheim at the age of 31 and gave them two solid, but slightly down seasons (865 OPS) before injuries and a notoriously bad trade with the Mets completely derailed his career.  He played only 165 games in the final four years of his contract and was gone from baseball at the age of 35.

Big Papi also blossomed late.  He was 27-years-old in his first season with the Red Sox.  In five seasons from '03-'07 he averaged 42 HR and 128 RBI per year, with a 1014 OPS, finishing in the top five in MVP voting every time.  Prior to the '07 season, at the age of 31, he signed a four-year, $52 Million deal.  He injured his wrist midway through '08 and hasn't been quite the same since (although there's still hope!).  He's currently 34-years-old.

Clearly, there's a trend.  Four MVP-caliber first-basemen.  Four contracts signed at age 30 or 31.  Four teams dissatisfied, sometimes disastrously so, within a couple of years.  We should keep in mind that there are some other factors to throw into the equation.  Cecil Fielder was a notorious boozer, who now readily admits he made questionable "lifestyle" choices, even during his athletic career.  Vaughn, Sexson, and Ortiz have been labeled with the scarlet "S," whether fairly or not.  While there would seem to be a trend when all their injuries are thrown together, each seemed somewhat flukish on its own.  

Which leaves Willie McCovey.

Stretch, of course, was playing major-league baseball at the age of 21, but his first dominant season came at age 25, when he led the league in homers with 44.  Free Agency was never issue for McCovey and the Giants, because he was, as Curt Flood so eloquently put it, "a well-paid slave," but his prime seasons stretched from '63 to '70, during which he averaged 36 HR, 99 RBI, and a 953 OPS.  Keep in mind, this was during a pitching era, so those numbers should be treated reverentially; his OPS+ for that span was 166.  He had injury-shortened seasons in '71 and '72 (he was 33 when he first hit the D.L.) and while wasn't quite the same thereafter, he was still very good.  From '73 to '77 he averaged 22 HR, 66 RBI, and a solid 856 OPS (138 OPS+).  Unfortunately, the legendary McCovey attempted to keep playing into his forties, though he was only a glimmer of his former self (see Jr., Griffey).

I think it's safe to say Philadelphia would be satisfied if Ryan Howard's career arch followed that of the Hall of Famer.  His work ethic and dedication will certainly be contributing factors, as will his ability to avoid major injury.  I will be rooting for him.

.....

As a little postscript, I think it's necessary to point out that for the second time in his career, Ryan Howard (and his agent, Casey Close) has altered baseball's financial terrain.  A few years back his record-breaking arbitration award ($10 Million) contributed heavily to teams locking up marquee younsters like Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, and Ryan Braun to long-term deals before they even reached arbitration eligibility.  Now, his $25 Million annual salary will probably be the baseline for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez, all of whom will hit the market after the 2011 season and all of whom can easily argue that they are worth at least as much as Howard.  I would say that in the wake of this contract and, to a lesser extent, the Teixeira signing of a year ago, Miguel Cabrera's eight-year, $152 Million deal, which runs through 2015, looks like a steal.

Sunday Night Notes: All-Star Break

Hippeaux's Predictions For the Second Half:

• Ryan Howard will justify his All-Star selection and the inequity of Miguel Cabrera's snubbing will be exacerbated. Miggy's second half in 2008 was pretty explosive (.302, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 951 OPS) and this year he already has a pretty stellar first half to build on (.322, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 923 OPS). He faced tough competition on the A.L. ballot, but let's face it, he deserves to be there as much or more than Carlos Pena and Mark Texeira. Howard's selection prompted widespread accusations of nepotism, which are probably founded, considering it cost guys like Pablo Sandoval and Matt Kemp opportunities, but Charlie Manuel understands that Ryan Howard's game isn't suited to provoke All-Star selections. Every season he invokes the ire of Phillies fans with early season slumps, than reclaims their affections come summertime. These are his career OPS splits by month: 793 in April, 950 in May, 874 in June, 980 in July, 937 in August, and 1150 in September. His post-All-Star Break OPS (1050) is a full 175 points higher than in the first half.
  
• Roy Halladay isn't going anywhere. I could be wrong. Some contender may get eager enough to put together a package which the Blue Jays can't pass up. But it will have to include at least two premier prospects, and with the premium placed on youth in recent years, I'm not sure teams are prepared to "mortgage the farm" to that extent. I can't imagine J. P. Riccardi would trade the best pitcher in baseball within his division, considering those are the teams he'll be trying to catch in the coming years, so that rules out three of the most obvious buyers. The Brewers have already made pretty clear that they aren't willing to part with their top prospects, guys like Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, in an attempt to recreate their Sabathia trade from 2008. So that leaves the Cardinals, White Sox, and two teams out of Los Angeles. I'm not sure any of them have enough good talent (which isn't already essential to their success) to woo the Jays. Honestly, Halladay is almost too valuable. Their may not be any such thing as a fair trade.
• The Giants will go for it. If Cain's elbow injury is more than just a bruise, this could change. But the Giants rotation is undeniably the best in baseball. The starters are responsible for 38 of the team's 49 wins (despite being near the bottom in run support) and lead MLB in ERA (3.49), K (487), BAA (.236), and CG (8). They're second in WHIP (1.27) to Seattle. Although Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Sandoval give this team a lot to build on, it isn't exactly a group which has time to wait. Randy Johnson, Ben Molina, and Randy Winn are only signed through the end of the season and Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria , and Aaron Rowand aren't exactly on the upside of their career tracks. The Giants have extraordinary pitching depth, with minor leaguers like Ryan Sadowski (recently promoted), Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Pucetes, Henry Sosa, and Tim Alderson looking very near to major-league ready, but other than Buster Posey and Angel Villalone, both of whom are probably still at least a year away, the Giants position player prospects are pretty pathetic. In the last ten year the Giants have only groomed one position player who became a major-league regular (Pedro Feliz). Sandoval is going to be the next and maybe Travis Ishikawa will join him, but guys like Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholz, and Kevin Frandson look like busts. If the Giants want to go for the NL Wild Card this year, they are going to need to acquire a bat. Most of the early rumors have surrounded Matt Holiday and I'd bet Billy Beane would be thrilled to get one of the pitchers mentioned above, with a few well-chosen B-level guys thrown in. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Giants seriously considered Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, Alex Rios, and Freddy Sanchez, among others.
• The '09 Rays are not the '08 Rockies. Tampa Bay's +76 run differential (3rd in MLB) says a great deal about how good they are, despite being in third place in their division. They begin the second-half with a ten-game road trip against Kansas City, Chicago, and Toronto, against whom they will no doubt be favored, despite the fact that they are only 18-26 on the road so far. A strong start to the second half may be critical if they are going to surpass either the Yanks or the Red Sox (or both). (An interesting note: all three AL East contenders have great home records thusfar and the Yankees have the most home games remaining in the second half, 39 compared to 36 for both Boston and Tampa.) What bodes well for the Rays, in my opinion, is that Scott Kazmir appears to be close to becoming his dominant self again (despite a poor outing on Thursday), David Price recently outdueled Roy Halladay for his best start since being promoted, and James Shields' monthly ERA splits look like this: 3.74, 3.35, 3.15, 3.14. If the rotation (currently a 4.56 ERA) comes around, the Rays become the American League's best team...again.
• Prince Albert is "crowned" King Pujols. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. Pujols will have to hold off Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Hanley Ramirez, but he's very much positioned to do the near unthinkable. He's ten homers up on Howard (who I guarantee will pass Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds by the end of July), nine RBI up on Fielder, and seventeen points back of Ramirez (who has spent much of the last two weeks nursing an injury). It would appear that average will be the greatest test, but while Pujols .332 is right in line with his career (.335), Ramirez is currently a dozen points above his best full season, 25 over his career, and nursing a hip flexor (see A-Rod, Mike Lowell), and Pujols nearest contention besides him is a rookie, Pablo Sandoval, and a Mets' outfielder, Carlos Beltran, who might be out for much of the rest of the season.
• Expect a regression to the mean. In other words, just as David Ortiz and Ricky Nolasco were not as "done" as many were prepared to declare them, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, and Magglio Ordonez are not as bad as they have thusfar demonstrated, nor are Ben Zobrist, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds likely to be as good as they have looked before the break. We all know, track records don't lie. Teamwise, that's probably good news for the Rays, Cubs, and Phillies, maybe not so good for the Marlins, Brewers, and Rangers.