Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

The Bengie Molina Factor (World Series Preview)

Mark Simon said on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast yesterday that Bengie Molina will join Lonnie Smith as the only players in baseball history to play in a World Series which featured two teams which both voted them postseason shares.  That means, of course, that Molina's going to get a ring either way, though, no doubt, it will be something of a mixed blessing if it has the Giants logo stamped on it.  Mr. Smith (a.k.a. Skates) ended up on the side of the World Champions and no doubt enjoyed putting it to his former team.  (He hit .333 in the '85 Series, with three doubles, four runs, four RBI, and two steals.  The rookie who inspired the Cardinals to trade him, Vince Coleman, sat out the series with an injury and his replacements, guys like Cesar Cedeno and Andy Van Slyke, struggled mightily (combined 3-for-26).)  So, if the Rangers lose, Molina would be the first to receive a ring for a World Series in which he played for the opposing side.

Even if he goes nuts and wins the World Series MVP, there's probably no way Molina can make the Giants regret trading him.  After all, they don't get this far without finding a way to get Buster Posey in the lineup everyday.  Posey solidified the middle of their lineup throughout the second half and his four hits and two RBI sparked a crucial Game Four win in the NLCS.

That said, nobody knows better than the Giants (and their fans) how streaky Molina can be and how dangerous he is when running hot.  He carried a heavy load this past April, hitting .344 with a .403 OBP at a time when the rest of the offense (even Aubrey Huff) was sputtering and guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, and Cody Ross weren't even on the roster.  But also lingering in the minds of the Giants faithful, including GM Brian Sabean, is certainly the clutch performance Molina put forward the last time they were in the World Series, in 2002.  Problem is, at that time he was also on the opposing team, the Angels.  Molina's overall stats for the '02 Series are solid (.286 AVG, .375 OBP, etc.), but what Giants fans will remember are the two doubles he hit in Game Seven, the first of which tied the game.

Molina has, thusfar this postseason, been running hot.  He hit .333 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and a 922 OPS during the Rangers first two series, highlighted by his huge three-run homer in Game Four of the ALCS.

Of course, Molina's offense is not the only thing he brings to the table.  There is only one player on the Rangers roster who has a significant history with Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain.  And that player, Bengie Molina, has seen more pitches from the trio of Giants hurlers than anybody in the game, having been their primary catcher every since they reached the big leagues.  If there is a functional scouting report for San Francisco's Aces, Molina knows it.

BBA Ballot: NL Willie Mays Award

A 20-year-old Willie Mays won the Rookie of the Year Award way back in 1951 with a line that looks eerily like those of this year's major candidates, Jason Heyward and Buster Posey:

Mays: 464 AB, 59 R, 127 H, 22 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 7 SB, .274/.356/.472
Heyward: 520 AB, 83 R, 144 H, 29 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, .277/.393/.456
Posey: 406 AB, 58 R, 124 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.357/.505

Clearly, based on the standard-bearer for the BBA's award for rookie excellence, Heyward and Posey are both excellent candidates.  Heyward's appearance of similarity is even boosted by the fact that he's an African-American outfielder who was also 20 years of age for the majority of his rookie season.  As he's substantially larger than Mays and plays right field for the Braves, the even more tempting comparison is Hammerin' Hank Aaron, who also broke in at age 20, in 1954, and although he lost the Rookie of the Year to Wally Moon, his stats for that season will look pretty familiar:

Aaron: 468 AB, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .280/.322/.447

Am I proposing that Heyward and Posey are destined to be the rivals of two of the best players in the history of the game?  Certainly not.  Plenty of rookies have equaled, or even surpassed these stats only to have their development fizzle after a couple seasons in the majors.  But to produce in such a fashion, at such a young age, while hitting at the center of playoff-bound lineups, is a pretty exceptional feat, and both have sparked the imaginations of their fan bases to an extent which warrants this lofty comparison.  The drama is further heightened by the face they their teams are currently squaring off in the NLDS.  So, who do I give precedence in my second-annual BBA Awards ballot?

First off, the best of the rest:

Honorable Mention: Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Jonny Venters (Braves), Daniel Hudson (D-Backs), Tyler Colvin (Cubs), Neil Walker (Pirates), Mike Stanton (Marlins), Travis Wood (Reds), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Hisanori Takahashi (Mets), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Ike Davis (Mets), John Axford (Brewers), Logan Morrison (Marlins), Chris Johnson (Astros)

Third Place: Jaime Garcia (Cardinals)

Because Garcia faltered a little in September and was prematurely shut down, I was tempted to make a case for Jhoulys Chacin, who actually got better as the year went on, finishing off the regular season with a 1.44 ERA in his last eight starts, and was superior to Garcia in both strikeouts and WHIP.  But although Chacin is probably much closer than many people think (according to FanGraphs he trails Garcia by only 0.2 in WAR), Garcia still has the edge, thanks mainly to his truly extraordinary ERA (2.70) and the fact that he made seven more starts than Chacin (who spent part of the season in Colorado's bullpen) and threw 26 more total innings.  It has been a long, long time since an NL rookie posted an ERA like Garcia's.  No pitcher with 120+ innings has done it in the 21st century (Roy Oswalt came fairly close, 2.73, way back in 2001).

And now, the main event:

Second Place: Jason Heyward (Braves)
First Place: Buster Posey (Giants)

In the end, what it came down to for me was the Posey should not be penalized for Brian Sabean's mistakes.  The Braves were very adamant this spring that they were going to put their top prospect in the Opening Day lineup because they considered themselves legitimate contenders and they didn't want to jeopardize wins in Bobby Cox's final year just so they could get one more year of arbitration at the backend of Heyward's tenure in Atlanta.  The Giants, unfortunately, went the opposite route, leaving Posey in the minors until June and renting Bengie Molina for a couple unhappy months.  It's probably safe to say that Posey would've been worth one or two wins had he joined the team in April, but the Giants nonetheless edged into the postseason, so I guess they got the best of both worlds.  My point is, had Posey gotten the approximately 20% more ABs that Heyward has, he definitely would've beaten him in the majority of the counting categories.  Heyward only has a healthy lead in runs, steals, and triples.  In addition to having superior rates stats, for the most part, Posey plays a far more valuable position.

Imagine if the Giants had been forced to put Posey, probably their best hitter, at first base or in right field.  It would've limited their ability to use the outfield platoons which were so successful for them in the second half, instead leaning on light-hitting catchers like Molina or Eli Whiteside.  Posey was no Mike Piazza either.  His 37.1 CS% trails only Yadier Molina, Miguel Olivo, and Russell Martin among NL catchers who played at least 62 games, and his 3.18 Catcher's ERA was second to Yorvit Torrealba.  I don't mean to suggest that Heyward was a slouch (3rd in UZR among NL right-fielders), but no outfielder can possibly equal the defensive contribution of an outstanding catcher.

Bailing Out Brian Sabean

The Giants front office needed some good news this morning, after Buster Olney reported in his survey of general managers that Sabean was roundly considered the most difficult to deal with.  One GM even told Olney he had difficulty getting Sabean to return his calls.  This can't possibly go over well with Giants fans, who have, for essentially half a decade, been waiting for Sabean to pull the trigger and bring in a legit middle-of-the-order hitter.  That he has not been able to pull off this task is indictment enough, but that he hasn't even been putting forth every effort to get it done is frankly unforgivable.  Shame on you, Brian Sabean.  Shame on you.

However, though it's hardly a blockbuster, the Giants did respond to this morning's report by announcing a trade.  Apparently Sabean returns Jon Daniels calls, because the two agreed to a deal which sent Bengie Molina and cash to the Rangers for Chris Ray and a player to be named later.  Unless you count the Mariners reacquisition of Russell Branyan, this is the first trade of the season involving a team (in this case both) which is gearing up for the pennant race.

As far as the Giants are concerned, this has to be considered a win.  They surprised everybody this offseason by resigning Molina and thus delaying the arrival of Buster Posey.  Molina made Sabean look good for about six weeks, but since the middle of May, a stretch of thirty games, his performance has fallen off dramatically, much as it did in the latter stages of 2009.  Over that span he's hitting .182 with a 436 OPS, 7 RBI, and two (that's right, 2) runs scored.  In doing so, he is essentially stealing at-bats from guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, Travis Ishikawa, and Nate Schierholtz, all of whom have been significantly superior hitters, in a lineup starved for runs.  This is definitely an improvement by subtraction, as it allows Posey (C) and Aubrey Huff (1B) to move back to their natural positions, thus opening up more at-bats in the outfield.

As an added bonus, the Giants receive a respectable veteran reliever in Chris Ray.  Ray has been having a minor renaissance this season in Texas, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 35 appearances.  One would expect his numbers could even improve as he moves from a bandbox to a pitcher's haven and from the AL to the NL.  Unfortunately, this helps the Giants very little, as their bullpen was already amongst the best and deepest in the league and Ray is unlikely to see much more than mop-up duty, but with many other would-be contenders (Phillies, Reds, Angels, Red Sox) in need of relief reinforcements, Sabean might be able to convert Ray into a valuable utilityman, a sixth starter, or a B-level prospect.

For the Rangers, who remain among the hottest teams in baseball following a Vladimir Guerrero driven win in Anaheim last night, this may seem a bit desperate.  Granted, Ray was also a bit extraneous in their bullpen, which is also excellent, and catcher has been an accursed position in Arlington for the last couple seasons.  However, in June, Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez combined to hit .253 with a .377 OBP, .421 SLG, 13 R, and 17 RBI.  Those aren't stellar numbers, certainly, but they are respectable for the position and easily superior to Molina's.  He has 17 RBI as well, but for the whole year!  Perhaps the move to Texas will awaken Molina's bat, but I suppose what Jon Daniels sees, regardless, is a player with a long track record success working with young pitchers, definitely a valuable skill to bring to the Rangers, who enter the second half depending heavily on unproven arms like Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Tommy Hunter.

It's possible this trade could be win-win.  However, I think the major outcome here is that Sabean will be saved from evisceration in the San Francisco press-box every time Molina grounds into a double play while Posey and/or Burrell are sitting on the bench.  When the major upside of a trade is covering the GMs ass, that's probably not a good thing for the franchise.  

Super Two, Super For Who? (Part Deux)

This past Wednesday, I contributed a guest blog for Inside Pulse Sports, renewing my quasi-familiar rant against the "Super Two" rule in response to disingenuous public diatribes by Brian Sabean and Mike Rizzo in the week preceding their announcements of the promotions of Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg.  Today I offer some additional notes regarding "Super Two."

• As if on cue, the Pirates GM, Neal Huntington, responded to questions about Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln on Tuesday by saying, "They're just not ready yet.  We're essentially through the arbitration window, so the reality is we're waiting for some finer finishing touches on all these guys.  We're still a ways away."  Alvarez had a 982 OPS in May.  He's third in the International League with 11 HR on the season.  Lincoln had a 2.38 ERA in May, with a ridiculous 31/4 K/BB rate.  When a GM describes player development using ambiguous terms like "finer finishing touches," it's usually because he's blowing smoke up your ass.  If the pattern holds, based on the similar masquerades by Rizzo and Sabean, we can expect Alvarez and Lincoln to both make their debuts before the end of June.
• In the last two offseasons, the cut-off for "Super Two" status has been either 139 (Carlos Gomez, '09) or 140 (Taylor Buchholz, '08) days.  Based on that timeline, we could assume that the cut-off this season will be somewhere in the middle of May.  In order to get 140 days of service this season, a player would have to be promoted by May 17.  However, this is a little misleading.  When discussion the '09 and '10 arbitration classes, we are referring to players who (in most cases) made their major-league debuts in '05, '06, and '07.  Team have become much more cognizant of the "Super Two" designation in the intervening years and their reticence would suggest that the date will get progressively later (as fewer teams are willing to promote players in the opening months).  
• In each of the last two offseasons, fifteen players qualified for "Super Two" status.  But, of course, it isn't as easy as counting the first fifteen promotions of 2010.  Many fans don't realize how often some players, especially young relievers and back-of-the-rotation starters, are shuffled back and forth to AAA.  Twins reliever Jeff Manship was recently promoted and demoted twice in less than three weeks.  Of the 146 rookies who appeared in a big-league games during the first two months of the season, 62 have already made at least one trip back to their minor-league affiliate, and many more will ride that bus before the end of June.  The roster math is made more complicated by the fact that some players who still have rookie status, have several weeks of service time accumulated from a previous season.
• When the season began, their were 60 rookies on MLB rosters.  23 of them have already been returned to the minors, at least temporarily, meaning they won't get a full year of service time in 2010.  Of the remaining 47, less than 20 have played well enough in significant roles to make themselves safe bets to last on the MLB roster for the full season.
• 86 rookies have been promoted since Opening Day.  39 of them have already suffered another demotion.  Of the remaining 47, at least 20 are filling expressly temporary roles (i.e. replacing injured regulars) and will almost certainly be returned to the minors for much of the remaining year.
• So, in conclusion, I provide you with a list of the players with the best chances of securing "Super Two" status...

Fantastic Thoughts: Super Twos, Super To Use?

It would seem fairly certain at this point that the Pirates will delay Pedro Alvarez's arrival until around midseason, rather than risk his getting "Super Two" status and being eligible for arbitration prior to the 2013 season.  The incumbent third-baseman, Andy LaRoche, has been one of Pittsburgh's best hitters (933 OPS) and Alvarez appears to be suffering through some growing pains in his first month at AAA, managing just a 695 OPS (although with four homers).

The same goes for Jason Castro of the Astros, Brett Wallace of the Blue Jays, and Carlos Santana of the Indians.  With their teams not likely to be headed anywhere this October, it behooves the franchise to delay their development slightly in order to get an additional full-season of cheap production in the future.

Teams which do appear to have legit playoff aspirations, however, now face a very tough decision.  Do they promote a rookie who could help the ballclub immediately, perhaps providing those extra one or two victories necessary to prolong the season, or do they hold off a month or two in order to protect their future payroll?  Here a look at some of the top minor-league hitters:

Fantastic Thoughts: "Bengie Molina ate one of my keepers." (Catcher Preview)

A couple weeks ago, it looked all but certain that the eldest Molina was headed to New York, but Brian Sabean swooped in at the last minute and saved Omar Minaya from further embarrassment.  Giants fans can look at the move with ambivalence.  Molina, despite his pathetic on-base percentages, is a decent contact hitter with good power (for a catcher), who is a dependable defensive presence and is familiar with the pitching staff.  When your success is deeply tied to the starting rotation, as San Francisco's so clearly is, it's hard to hand the catcher position to a rookie, no matter how promising he is.

From a fantasy perspective, this is bad, bad news.  Molina is a known commodity who doesn't excite anybody, because his decent power totals (20 HR, 80 RBI in '09) are offset by mediocre performances elsewhere (52 R, .265 AVG).  Molina is the kind of catcher you get stuck with late in a draft or auction because you unwisely spent your funds elsewhere.  Buster Posey, on the other hand, when he was slated as the Giants primary backstop, was the kind of high-upside rookie that fantasy owners get all tweeked about, especially in keeper leagues.  Splitting time between two minor-league levels last season, Posey hit .325 with 18 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB, and a 947 OPS in just 115 games.  Obviously, there will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old at the major-league level, but given 450+ at-bats, I'd be willing to bet that Posey could outhit Molina, even as a rookie.  Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know.

The catcher position is, as usual, painfully thin.  There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop.

In leagues that require you to carry two active catchers, the strategy is much different.  In such leagues, the Molinas, Pierzynskis, and Ramon Hernandez's of the world are pure gold, merely because they are holding down regular ABs.  Only sixteen catchers got 400 plate appearances in 2009.  Only nine got as many as 500.  In a twelve-team league, that means more that half the owners were starting part-time players, perhaps juggling a couple of them, trying to guess which day Mike Scioscia would go with Jeff Mathis, or which day Jim Tracy would rest Yorvit Torrealba.  Needless to say, this can be a frustrating experience.  When Miguel Olivo goes yard on the Sunday afternoon you chose to start Jason Varitek, who ended up getting the night off, it's like leaving your windows down during a rainstorm the night after you paid full price for a car wash.  You're double fucked.

1. Joe Mauer (Twins)
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox)
3. Brian McCann (Braves)
4. Russell Martin (Dodgers)

These are, obviously, the cream of the crop, and with the exception of Martin, you'll have to pay through the nose to get them, even though they probably won't register as many ABs as a starting first-baseman or outfielder.  Moreover, each of the big three have had injury issues at some point during the last two seasons, which makes that second or third round pick even more unsettling.

Martin was horrible in 2009 and many will, justifiably, knock him down into the second or third tier, but I'm choosing instead to focus on how consistently good he was in his two previous seasons, during which he averaged 87 R, 16 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB, with a .286 AVG.  Those totals, especially the steals, are exceedingly rare out of the catcher position, so I'll happily have another go-round with Trane this spring, rather than settle for somebody who's yet to prove they can get anywhere near such numbers.

Offseason Prospectus #7: The San Francisco Giants

The Giants had not achieved more than 75 wins since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time Barry Bonds won the MVP. So, despite a third-place finish, notching 88 wins has to be considered a major step forward for the franchise, and, whether you like it or not, it probably means both Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be around at least until their contracts expire at the end of the 2011 season. I've voiced me skepticism about Sabean in the past (here and here, most notably) and there is no denying he handed out three of the worst contracts in the game (to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria), but San Francisco's drafting and development have improved by leaps and bounds in the last couple seasons, so there is reason to be positive about his administration as well.

The question about the 2010 Giants is whether they can make the small step forward which would probably result in a playoff bid, or whether they will suffer the backslide which so often follows a surprising sixteen-win swing like this one (see '07 Tigers, '08 Rockies, '09 Rays, etc., etc.). Although it would undoubtedly stick in the craw of Giants fans to see their team stand pat again this offseason, when there offensive liabilities are so evident, I will argue that is exactly the right course of action for the long term viability of the franchise. They cannot afford to be saddled by another contractual albatross, and the impact free agents this offseason (Holliday, Bay, Lackey, etc.) have the potential to become exactly that. If Sabean and Peter Magowan are preparing to make another nine-figure investment, it would be better to wait until next winter and commit that money to Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, or Roy Halladay. Or, they could try to get Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval under contract for many years to come. Or, they might consider testing the availability of guys like Crawford, Halladay, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder come June or July. The fact of the matter is, the Giants have several decisions to make before they can even accurately assess their most dire needs.

Free Agents:

Bobby Howry (36) RHRP

Randy Johnson (46) LHSP

Bengie Molina (35) C

Brad Penny (32) RHSP

Juan Uribe (30) IF

Randy Winn (36) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Ryan Garko (29) 1B

Tim Lincecum (26) RHSP

Brandon Medders (30) RHRP

Jonathan Sanchez (27) LHSP

Brian Wilson (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Madison Bumgarner (20) LHSP

Matt Downs (26) 2B/3B/OF

Jesus Guzman (26) 1B/3B

Waldis Joaquin (23) RHRP

Brett Pill (25) 1B

Buster Posey (23) C

Kevin Pucetas (25) RHSP

Ryan Rohlinger (26) 3B

Dan Runzler (25) LHRP

Henry Sosa (24) RHSP

Obviously, the Giants will again lean heavily on their pitching staff, led by Lincecum and Cain. Atlanta and St. Louis also had excellent rotations in 2009, but San Francisco led the NL in strikeouts, WHIP, complete games, opponent's average and OPS. There is no reason to believe the Giants will be any worse in 2010. Barry Zito (32) is the only member of the rotation older than 27 and Jeremy Affeldt (31) is the only pitcher in bullpen over thirty. Moreover, and this is where Sabean deserves a great deal of commendation, there is more homegrown talent on the way. Madison Bumgarner, though only twenty, will almost certainly join the rotation this spring. He has very little to prove in the minors after his most recent campaign:

Bumgarner (A/AA) 12-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 92/34 K/BB, 131 IP

Kevin Pucetas took a step backward at AAA in '09, but he and Henry Sosa are also top prospects who could join the rotation later this season, if necessary. Their presence make Randy Johnson and Brad Penny expendable, although Sabean may disagree. Similarly, the Giants should be able to quickly compensate for the loss of Bobby Howry by promoting Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler, and giving more innings to Sergio Romo and Joe Martinez. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, the Giants staff is not only dominant, but deep as well.

Unfortunately, quite the opposite is true of the everyday lineup. If we took San Francisco's current starting eight down Highway 1 and gave them to Joe Torre and the Dodgers, Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez would be the only guys with starting positions. And, again, unlike the pitching staff, there aren't many reinforcements on the way. The Giants best positions prospects, guys like Angel Villalona, Conor Gillaspie, and Darren Ford, won't be ready for the big leagues until 2012 at the earliest. What they have an abundance of in the high minors are players who look destined for AAAA or limited major-league roles; outfielders like Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Joe Borchard, Andres Torres, and Fred Lewis; and infielders like Emmanuel Burriss, Kevin Frandsen, Ryan Garko, and Travis Ishikawa.

The same may also be true of Brett Pill, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Jesus Guzman, rookies who will all fight for at-bats at third, first, and probably in the outfield as well, during Spring Training and the early months of 2010. This is one of the reasons I urge the Giants to be cautious on the free agent market this offseason. While none of these players appear to possess the talent to provide serious protection for Sandoval, a couple of them (the best bets are probably Guzman, Downs, and Eugenio Velez) could develop into legitimate starters. Bochy is going to have a major challenge finding enough opportunities for all his youngsters to show what they are capable of, but until he does so, it will be difficult for the Giants front office to identify their most pressing need. Certainly, they need a power-hitter to plug in behind Sandoval in the middle of lineup, but whether it would be better for that slugger to play first base, third base, or outfield, remains to be seen.

To that effect, San Francisco needs to decide relatively soon whether they are going to continue to use Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner, or give in to the fact that his weight makes him more logically suited for first base. I can understand their reluctance. Sandoval has been passable on defense thusfar (-2.3 UZR) and it is easier to find a free agent slugger at first than at third, but in '09 he hit .320 with a 921 OPS when playing third and .385 with a 1071 OPS in his more limited appearances at first, suggesting that the Panda's production might benefit slightly from an alleviation of defensive anxiety. Clearly, fans pay to see Sandoval hit, so maybe it's best to let him concentrate on that. I expect he will continue to bounce back and forth in '10 as Bochy finds at-bats opposite him for Guzman, Downs, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Garko, etc., but by '11 he should be settled at a permanent position, to which he can give his full attention (as an analogy, Albert Pujols benefitted both offensively and defensively when the Cardinals finally settled him at first base after several seasons of bouncing between first, third, and left field).

Sabean faces another difficult decision this offseason with his backstops. Bengie Molina became one of the most popular players in San Francisco during the last three seasons, and one can argue that he has been a significant part of the pitching staff's success. However, he has also become a serious offensive liability, netting an atrocious .285 OBP (!) in '09. One could argue that he might improve if he were able to hit lower in the order, in less pressure situations, but regardless of batting position, he doesn't have nearly the upside of Buster Posey, the 2008 first-rounder who pounded his way through the minor leagues in just over a year. So, there are, in fact, two catching questions:

1.) Can a 23-year-old, regardless of his reported maturity, handle catching the nastiest pitching staff in the game on a nightly basis?

2.) Can Bengie Molina handle a backup role, or even a 50/50 timeshare, after three seasons of starting 120+ games?

If the Giants decide the answer to the first question is yes, but the answer to the second question is no (and those, I believe, are the right answers), than they will be in the market for a veteran backstop who had adjusted to limited playing time, but who has wisdom to impart to the rookie. Jose Molina would be the obvious choice, but he will likely return to the Bronx and may be reluctant to follow in his brother's footsteps. Other decent options could be Jason Kendall, Miguel Olivo, Gregg Zaun, Brad Ausmus, or Ivan Rodriguez.

Finally, the Giants need to decide what they expect out of Aaron Rowand. He got off to a solid start last season, but faded fast, from July 5th forward he managed only a 594 OPS. The Giants again bounced him around the order, even experimenting, relatively successfully, with using him as a leadoff hitter. Rowand's offensive woes aren't the only problem. His range in center appears to be declining as well. For a team which depends heavily on its outfield defense in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, it may be wise to consider moving Rowand to right field, although as a corner outfielder, his poor hitting becomes even more auspicious.

The Giants should again exhibit many reasons for optimism in 2010, but San Francisco may need to be patient for yet another year before they can anticipate a serious contender.

Here is my projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Aaron Rowand (R)

2B Freddy Sanchez (R)

1B Pablo Sandoval (S)

3B Mark DeRosa (R)

LF Eugenio Velez (S)

C Buster Posey (R)

RF Andres Torres (S)

SS Edgar Renteria (R)

P Tim Lincecum (R)

SP Matt Cain (R)

SP Barry Zito (L)

SP Jonathan Sanchez (L)

SP Madison Bumgarner (L)

CL Brian Wilson (R)

SU Brandon Medders (R)

SU Jeremy Affeldt (L)

MI Sergio Romo (R)

MI Waldis Joaquin (R)

MI Dan Runzler (L)

MU Joe Martinez (R)

C Miguel Olivo (R) FA

IF Matt Downs (R)

IF Juan Uribe (R)

IF Kevin Frandsen (R)

OF Fred Lewis (L)