Since the mid-nineties, few save diehards like myself, have felt it necessary to follow that friendly fourth-place team from north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays. Canadian baseball fans have dwindled, robbed of one franchise and forced to watch another languish in baseball's toughest division. You probably don't realize that over the last six seasons the Jays are actually twenty games over .500, having never won fewer than 75 games. If they were in any other division, they would routinely be playing meaningful games in August and September and would likely have brought home at least one or two division titles during that span.
In fantasy baseball, as the 2010 season proved once again, it doesn't pay to ignore the Jays. Toronto hit 46 more homers than any other team in baseball last year. That's right. Even if they hadn't had the MLB leader in homers, Jose Bautista, they would've been second in the majors in long balls. (Note: On the other side of things, the Jays finished dead last in the AL in steals, with 58. That's right, the entire team managed fewer steals than Juan Pierre.)
As such a dramatic team-wide power surge suggests, some of the year's best deals came out of Toronto. Most notably, Bautista, generally ignored in all by the deepest leagues, compiled the biggest home run total by any player since 2007 and was also among the league leaders in runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Vernon Wells, the once-promising centerfielder who many had left for dead after a string of rather dismal campaigns, had his first 30+ HR season since 2006 (and didn't kill your batting average either). You probably could've had him for $1 add the tail end of your mixed-league auction.
John Buck, a infinitely forgettable 30-year-old catcher who wasn't even guaranteed a starting job when the season began, posted career highs in nearly every relevant offensive category (I kid you not: runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG). Alex Gonzalez, a veteran shortstop generally favored only for his defense, who hadn't hit more than 16 homers in a season since 2004, hit 17 in half a season in Toronto, before being traded to the Braves. He also finished the season with career highs in 2B, HR, and RBI.
One might assume, with balls flying out of the Skydome at such an alarming rate and from such unexpected sources, that Blue Jays pitchers were not quite as promising investments. But that wasn't exactly the case. When Spring Training began, many fantasy analysts didn't have a clue who was going to be in the Toronto rotation. Doc Halladay was gone and the only other pitchers with significant track records - Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan - were all coming off major injuries with uncertain timetables for recovery. There was a three-headed competition for the closer's job, with no clear favorite. Basically, you could've had any Blue Jays pitcher for a song. And several were worth well more than that.
It took him until a week or so into the season, but Kevin Gregg eventually won the closer's job and compiled a nice total of saves (37), though with somewhat suspect rate numbers (3.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum became the team's co-Aces, and though their numbers were unspectacular, they were a solid addition to the backend of any fantasy staff. Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow emerged as good in-season pickups. Cecil didn't start the season in the majors, but ended up leading the team in wins, with 15. His second-half was particularly strong (for a 24-year-old), as he went 8-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Morrow spend the whole year in the rotation (save a brief stint on the DL), but he wasn't exactly drawing many suitors when his ERA sat a 6.80 on May 25th. Thereafter, the converted reliever became one of the best strikeout artists in the American League, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 119 K in 101 innings.
But all that was last year, right?
Buck, Gonzalez, Gregg, and Marcum have all moved on to other teams, most of which don't offer quite as promising environs (Marcum is the exception). Nobody's going to be sleeping on Bautista coming off his breakout year. Wells is a notoriously risky investment who had tricked people before. Do the 2011 Jays promise to have any sleepers?
Well, I think Morrow, Cecil, and Romero will all remain under value. All are in their mid-twenties. An additional step forward in the development process would be enough to make them borderline elite pitchers. There's no guarantee that happens this year, but it could. And you certainly won't have to pay for it. In many leagues, because they play in Toronto, these pitchers will go completely unrecognized, even though their numbers are just as promising (if not moreso) than youngsters like Phil Hughes, Wade Davis, and Brian Matusz who will get much more attention.
Also, if you were paying attention at the beginning of last year, you'll recall that nobody was expecting Bautista and Wells to be the workhorses in the middle of the Jays lineup. That duty was supposed to fall to Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. These were guys who had even gotten some MVP consideration in 2009. Both were coming off seasons of 35+ HR and 100+ RBI. Both sputtered big time in 2010. Although they still hit some homers (23 for Lind, 26 for Hill), neither managed to get his OBP above .300 or his average above .240, and all their other numbers suffered accordingly. While it's probably true that neither should be expected to return to their '09 levels, both also suffered from some tremendously bad luck. Steep dropoffs in BABIP (Hill had by far the lowest BABIP of any player in the majors) suggest they have a strong chance of getting back to somewhere between their '09 and '10 production. If that means 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI with averages in the .270 range, you should be getting good value.
Toronto is a good place for players with power. Last week, I included J. P. Arencibia among my top five fantasy rookies for exactly that reason. Travis Snider and Edwin Encarnacion, though not rookies, are also potential beneficiaries. Encarnacion hit five homers in the last four games of 2010. Obviously, that's a small sample size, but he's a former top prospect who had been struggling with injuries. Fully healthy and limited primarily to DH duties, the 28-year-old could be primed for a breakout year. The Jays rushed Snider to the bigs (he played his first MLB game at age 20). As a result, even though he's now just 23, many fantasy players will have forgotten about him. Remember last winter how everybody had decided that 24-year-old Delmon Young was a flop? Snider could follow that pattern.
Finally, one word about Jose Bautista. There will be no shortage of leagues in which Jose Bautista, coming off his 54 HR season, will actually be underrated. How could this be? Well, of course, many cagey skeptics will conclude that he can't possible repeat that production. Beware taking that rational too far. The baseball season is long. It's hard to stay consistent throughout, especially if you're a player who's playing above his abilities. Evidence of "flukishness" will show up over the course of a season. Weaknesses will be found and exploited. Here's the thing though, Bautista's BABIP was actually substantially lower than his career average, so it's hard to argue he was getting lucky. And here are his monthly totals:
April: 4 HR, 741 OPS
May: 12 HR, 1188 OPS
June: 4 HR, 692 OPS
July: 11 HR, 1183 OPS
August: 12 HR, 1173 OPS
September: 11 HR, 935 OPS
To me, this doesn't look like a guy who's suffering from overexposure as the season progresses. As yet, there's no indication that the league has figured him out. Could it happen in 2011? Sure. But I think it is equally likely that Bautista is once again at 45+ HR and 110+ RBI hitter who has multiple position eligibility. Bautista's power surge was accompanied by sizable increases in his walk rate and a sizable decrease in his strikeout rate. Those are talents which, once learned, generally don't just disappear.
ADDENDUM: The Jays recently made official deals with Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel. So it would appear, just like last year, Spring Training will probably feature a three-way competition for closing duties between Rauch, Dotel, and Jason Frasor. Frasor actually won that competition last year, but was replaced in early April by Kevin Gregg, who held down the spot for most of the remaining season. I don't think one of these guys is dramatically better than the others, but all have previous closing experience (with some modicum of success) and because of the uncertainty, they will all come on the cheap. As somebody who always endorses prospecting for saves as late in your draft or auction as possible, you could do a lot worse than any (or all) of these guys, especially in deep leagues.
Showing posts with label Shaun Marcum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shaun Marcum. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher
It's almost upon us. The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week. In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason. There are still a few outstanding free agents. Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs. Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons. Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts. If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues. For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes. Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals
Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010. He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward. Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland. Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels. Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation. All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Sunday, January 02, 2011
The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)
A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense). The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.
Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.
At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.
While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.
The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.
In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.
Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.
What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.
More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.
Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.
Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.
On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Set the DVR, it's Duels Week
With a third of the season in the bag, there's a lot to talk about this coming week, but I'd like to start by pointing out that there are a disproportionate number of really exciting pitching matchups slated for the first week of June, so if you're like me and you love nothing more than a pitchers duel, here's how you should set your calender for the first half of the week:
Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP
We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race. Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back. Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!
Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP
Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces. They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches. Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9). He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground. His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays. Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season. Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak. In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.
Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP
The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces. The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset. He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts. The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect. He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA. This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.
Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP
Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties. And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach. They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate. They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.
Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP
We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race. Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back. Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!
Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP
Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces. They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches. Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9). He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground. His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays. Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season. Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak. In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.
Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP
The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces. The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset. He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts. The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect. He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA. This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.
Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP
Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties. And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach. They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate. They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.
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