Fantastic Thoughts: Rafael Soriano The Latest Premier Reliever To Settle For "Holds"

Rafael Soriano disappointed his fantasy owners yesterday when he signed the largest set-up man contract in the history of the game.  If you owned Soriano last year, you probably got him for a song and he proceeded to be the most productive closer in the game.  In many keeper leagues it would be possible to redouble that value in 2011...if Soriano had signed on to be somebody's closer.  Soriano chose instead to be Mariano Rivera's opening act.  There's nothing wrong with that.  He'll get to pitch for a competitive team.  He'll be in line, potentially, to be Mo's replacement (if he ever retires).  And, in the interim, he'll be content to take home around $12 Million a year.  Not too shabby.

In most fantasy formats, however, Soriano is now all but irrelevant, joining a cast which includes Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps: all established closers who will spend 2011 as set-up men.  From a baseball perspective, this is a very encouraging trend.  More and more GMs have realized that it's just as rational (if not more rational) to pay for a dominant reliever who pitches whenever the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th, as it is to pay seven figures to a guy who only takes the ball in save situations.  From a fantasy perspective, this sucks.

There were already few enough guys who were consistent candidates for 30+ saves.  Now several of them are chasing "holds" instead.  When the 2011 season begins, at least a third of the 30 MLB teams will be featuring a pitcher for whom this is their first Opening Day with the closer label.  Several may elect to go with that infamous strategy which is fantasy kryptonite: closer-by-committee.

Some will be apt to tell you that this widespread uncertainty is reason to invest heavily in one of the few truly established closing options, guys like Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde.  I disagree.  I hate paying for saves.  With so many bullpens in flux, more cheap saves are coming into the league than ever before.  Besides Soriano (48 SV), here are some guys you could've had for next to nothing in 2010:

Matt Capps (42 SV), Kevin Gregg (37 SV), Leo Nunez (30 SV), John Axford (24 SV), Matt Lindstrom (23 SV), Chris Perez (23 SV), Octavio Dotel (22 SV), Jon Rauch (21 SV), Brandon Lyon (20 SV), Alfredo Simon (17 SV), Juan Gutierrez (15 SV), Fernando Rodney (14 SV), Koji Uehara (13 SV), Hong-Chih Kuo (12 SV), Manny Corpas (10 SV)

Just counting guys who went either undrafted or in the very final rounds of standard drafts, that's fifteen players with double-digit saves.  I'd be willing to bet there will be even more in 2011.  Let's take a look at the few of the franchises with the most uncertainty and discuss some of the candidates for closing duties.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays have probably the best bullpen in baseball last season.  However, this offseason, they lost their four best releivers: Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler.  They also lost a couple innings-eaters in Randy Choate and Chad Qualls.  The additions Tampa Bay has made - Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta - are not exactly guys who've had late-inning success, so the new closer is almost certainly coming from within the organization.

J. P. Howell will get a crack at it, if he's healthy.  Howell was very good during a limited tenure as Tampa Bay's closer during the second half of 2009 (16 SV, 3.02 ERA).  However, he missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury.  He may not be ready to pitch again at all until May or June, and even then nobody can predict how his surgically-repaired rotator cuff will respond.

The Padres converted Mike Ekstrom into a reliever during the 2008 season.  In two full seasons at AAA, Ekstrom posted a 2.24 ERA.  Promoted in the final month of 2010, Ekstrom looked fine doing mop-up work for the Rays (3.31 ERA in 16 IP).  However, Ekstrom has never been a closer at any level and doesn't have prototypical closer stuff (6.8 K/9 at AAA).

With Joe Maddon, anything is possible.  Maddon is notorious for going against the conventional wisdom, especially in his bullpen management.  In the past, for brief periods, he featured top-flight starters like David Price and Matt Garza at closer.  Maddon could consider rehashing that trick with Jake McGee.  McGee is one of the Rays top pitching prospects and, after a solid run at AA in 2010, he's probably not far from being major-league ready.  However, there's currently no room in the rotation.  The Rays gave McGee a quick audition in relief at the end of last year.  He posted a 0.52 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 innings at AAA and a 1.80 ERA with 6 K in five innings in the bigs.  Obviously, that's an extremely small sample, but he's got the kind of power stuff (10.4 K/9 in his professional career) that one likes to see in a closer.

Finally, don't sleep on Matt Gorgen.  Gorgen was the closer of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA) last year, piling up 22 saves and a 1.65 ERA in 45 innings.  If Gorgen can continue to build momentum at AAA and the closer carousel doesn't go well in the early months of the season, Maddon could be very interested in a guy who has spend his entire pro career closing games, has a solid minor-league track record, and a power arm (10.1 K/9 in minors).

Atlanta Braves:

Some, including myself, aren't fully convinced that Billy Wagner is really retiring, just two saves away from becoming all-time leader for left-handed relievers and fourth overall, behind just Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.

If Wagner really doesn't come back for a 16th season, the Braves may be forced to turn to one of their other flame-throwing southpaws, either Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty.  Both Venters and O'Flaherty were excellent last seasons.  Venters (1.95 ERA, 93 K, 83 IP) even garnered a little Rookie of the Year consideration, which is a hard thing to do as a middle reliever.  Both will be 26-years-old in 2011.  O'Flaherty has more experience, but Venters would probably get the first crack at the job.

The closer of the future in Atlanta is Craig Kimbrel.  Many are assuming that future is now.  Kimbrel throws fire (14.4 K/9 in minors).  He moved quickly through the minors as a closer and posted solid numbers in his late-season audition (0.44 ERA, 40 K, 21 IP).  Fredi Gonzalez may indeed be comfortable handing him the job straightaway.  However, I expect Atlanta will be a little cautious following Kimbrel's NLDS.  When Wagner was sidelined, they asked Kimbrel to take over the ninth and in a critical Game 3 appearance he got a little ruffled and ended up taking the loss.  Bobby Cox was alwasy reluctant to use young pitchers in the 9th.  Don't be surprised if Gonzalez follows that pattern as well.

With that in mind, one probably shouldn't ignore the presence of George Sherrill.  Sherrill quietly joined the Braves bullpen this offseason.  He is the only pitcher in Atlanta with substantial closing experience (52 SV between '08 and '09).  He had a tough year in L.A. in 2010, but he's one of those unflappable reliever that managers generally love to use in the 9th.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Most are assuming that 37-year-old  Octavio Dotel has been signed to be the Blue Jays closer.  I, personally, think that's an unwise assumption.  Dotel hasn't spent a full season closing games since 2004.  His last temporary stint as a closer (during the first half of 2010 with Pittsburgh) was sufficiently underwhelming (4.28 ERA).

The Jays have other options.  Their best reliever from last season was Shawn Camp (2.99 ERA in 72 IP).  Camp's numbers have gotten substantially better every years since 2007.  He may be due for a shot.

Jason Frasor, who began the season as Toronto's closer, after posting great numbers in 2009, should also be on your radar.  Frasor lost the job to Kevin Gregg after blowing two of his first five opportunities, but he really found his rhythm again in the second half.  He had a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP after the All-Star Break.

Also, watch for Alan Farina, who the Jays recently added to their 40-man roster.  Farina, drafted in '07, could move quickly in '11.  He compiled a 1.29 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9 between two levels in 2010.

Chicago White Sox:

Bobby Jenks will be pitching for a different color of Sox in 2011, for the first time in his career, so, for the first time since 2005, the ChiSox are auditioning closers.

The Vegas money would probably be on Matt Thornton, who, in three seasons as Jenks primary set-up man, posted a 2.70 ERA and 245 K in 200 IP.  The only thing working against Thornton is the fact that he's far more valuable doing exactly what he's been doing for the last three years.  His rubber arm, his ability shut down the league's top lefties, and work out of james with inherited runners are all talents that would be slightly compromised by reserving him exclusively for save situations.

Instead, the Sox could hand the job over to Chris Sale, their 2010 draft pick who went almost directly to the major leagues.  After being drafted in June, Sale sailed through the minors and still managed to get 21 appearances in Chicago, where he posted a 1.93 ERA with 32 K.  Ozzie Guillen handed Jenks the closer job when he was just a rookie, so don't assume he'll be hesitant to put that pressure on Sale.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher

It's almost upon us.  The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week.  In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason.  There are still a few outstanding free agents.  Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs.  Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons.  Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts.  If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues.  For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes.  Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:

Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I've already commended the Greinke trade.  The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar.  Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA.  It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support.  Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds.  The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating.  Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200.  He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now.  You'll have to pay for that production.

Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins

Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media.  He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins.  With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous.  He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league.  It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams.  The Marlins have a solid offense.  And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.  I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.

Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals

Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds.  Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.

Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee.  Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier.  In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay.  He went 12-2 against everybody else.  At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.

Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs

I like Garza.  I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011.  I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East.  I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm.  However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate.  I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers.  And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball.  Garza should contribute a boatload of innings.  His ERA and WHIP should be very solid.  And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound.  I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins.  Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07.  Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons.  In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park.  He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells.  Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State.  It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.

J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%).  Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one.  In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA.  Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K).  For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.

Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:

Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals

Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010.  He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward.  Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland.  Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels.  Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation.  All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.

Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies

Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential.  According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies.  I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season.  However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant.  Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production.  Only twice has he topped 14 wins.  He's never had more than 185 strikeouts.  And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone.  All that said, I like Lee.  I just don't like the price.

Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage.  His walk rate went way up.  His K/BB rate  went way down.  He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate.  And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005.  Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor.  As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way.  This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball.  Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing.  He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him.  Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.

Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox

From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks.  Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success.  A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox.  Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace.  But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant.  Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06.  Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent.  In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.

Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh.  Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL.  Not a favorable combination.

R.I.P. 2010 White Sox

Way back in March, I very tentatively predicted the White Sox to win a tight AL Central race.  As it turned out, I wasn't terribly far off, but in early June I was feeling pretty silly.  At the start of play on June 9th, the Sox were 9.5 games back, trailing both the Twins and Tigers and 9 games under .500.  They looked a lot like their crosstown rivals - old legs, slow bats, and tired arms - and Ozzie's preseason promise, that they would return to the style that led to their championship in 2005, seemed like mere posturing.  But Ozzie kept telling the naysayers, "There's a lot of season left."

From the middle of June all the way to the All-Star Break, the White Sox became, to everybody's great surprise, the best team in baseball.  First they had a modest four-game winning streak, their first of the year. Than they reeled off eleven in a row.  Than, only a week later, nine more.  All told, from the 9th of June to the 15th of July they went 25-5 and they took over first place, where they remained for more than a month.

However, with the exception of a seven-game winning streak earlier in the month, the wheels have completely come off down the stretch.  The Sox have played pretty much .500 ball for the last six weeks and you can't make up ground on a good team like the Twins playing .500 ball.  And you especially can't keep losing to that team, as the Sox have done all year long, capped off by a three-game sweep at the Cell this week.  All told, Chicago went 5-14 this season against their division rival, easily their lowest winning percentage against any team.

Although they aren't heading back to the postseason, I think Ozzie, Ken Williams, and the rest of the franchise can be very pleased with their performance in 2010.  They will certainly finish with a winning record, and may approach 90 wins.  "Ozzie-ball," loosely characterized as the emphasis on durable starting pitching, aggressive baserunning, and swinging for the fences, has had the predicted Renaissance.  Juan Pierre currently leads the major leagues with 55 steals, Alex Rios is 10th with 33, and   Omar Vizquel, Alexei Ramirez, and Andruw Jones will all finish in the double digits.  Paul Konerko has had a resurgent, MVP-caliber season, hitting .322 with 36 HR and 104 RBI.  Rios, Ramirez, Jones, and Carlos Quentin have also chipped in considerably in the power department.  The Sox accomplished a relatively rare feat, finished in the top five in the AL in both homers (4th) and steals (3rd).

Perhaps more important than anything they do on offense, however, is the fact that the ChiSox staff consistently pitches deep into games.  The front three of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, though not among the league leaders in wins or ERA, having all been solid workhorses.  None have missed starts and all are on pace for 200+ innings.  The ability of this rotation to keep their team in games is evidenced by the fact they are fourth in the AL in relief wins, even though they twelfth in the league in relief innings.

Ken Williams once again proved himself to be one of the most creative, competitive, and effective GMs in the game.  Last season he gambled on Alex Rios, taking the outfielder's massive contract off waivers from Toronto.  Rios played horribly for the Sox down the stretch during '09, but this year he has been among their biggest contributors and, at 29, he future once again looks pretty bright.  Pierre, Vizquel, and Jones were added for a combined salary under $5 Million and all have played key roles.  The White Sox would not have hung around the race for this long without them.  A similar claim could be made for the cheap veteran pitchers Williams brought onboard last season, but who really paid off this year, J. J. Putz and Freddy Garcia.  As the pennant race neared, Williams was aggressive, as usual, netting Edwin Jackson, who has been outstanding since his arrival (3-1, 2.94 ERA) and Manny Ramirez, who hasn't been able to rekindle the September magic his brought with him to L.A. in 2008.

Sure, Williams wasn't perfect.  Mark Teahen and Mark Kotsay were marked busts.  As was Jake Peavy. But, as is common with Williams, he hedges his bets well enough that the franchise will not be sabotaged heading forward, even though the current roster is fairly expensive and fairly old.  The Sox have almost a $105 Million payroll this season, but only $75 Million committed next year.

As such, it will be a busy offseason for Kenny.  The Sox have a solid core to build around.  The rotation is set (Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy [hopefully]).  Rios, Quentin, Ramirez, and Gordon Beckham give the lineup a solid young foundation.  Bobby Jenks, Chris Sale, and Matt Thornton will continue to pitch the late innings.  There are, however, three big decisions:

1.)  Paul Konerko will be a free agent.  The White Sox longest tenured player will probably finish in the top five in MVP voting this season, for the first time in his career.  Such production was a steal at $12 Million for 2010.  Konerko is, however, 35-years-old.  He's never been particularly good in the field and the footraces between him and Jim Thome are the stuff of South Side legends.  How much can the White Sox commit to the "face of the franchise" when he is coming off what will almost surely be the best year of his career.  Maybe the Yankee's can pay Jeter for "what he's meant to the franchise," as many are predicting they will, but with less than half as much payroll, the Sox don't have such a luxury.

2.)  J. J. Putz will also be going on the free agent market.  After a disastrous year with the Mets, Putz regained his form in Chicago.  In all likelihood, he will be looking to get another opportunity to close, as he did with great success for the Mariners from '06-'08.  He is the only player in the Sox bullpen with closing experience, beside Bobby Jenks, the current closer, whose performance has declined dramatically over the last three seasons.  The rotund fireballer, Jenks, was once a fan-favorite in Chicago, as he got the last out in the 2005 World Series and had a record-setting streak of perfect innings a couple years later.  He needs only 28 more saves to become the franchise leader, passing Bobby Thigpen.  Don't be surprised, however, if Kenny Williams makes the unsentimental decision of trading (or even releasing) Jenks this offseason, rather than paying an expensive arbitration award for a relief pitcher whose ERA is 4.44.  That could free him up to negotiate with Putz.

3.)  Konerko and Jenks are obviously more talented, but no single player encompasses the soul of White Sox baseball during the Ozzie Guillen era quite like A. J. Pierzynski.  Pierzynski clearly gets off a little on being "the most hated player in the game" and his energy and doggedness are clearly contagious.  And, he is the picture of consistency: good defense, decent power, decent average, and, most importantly, utterly dependable, never making a trip to the D.L.  When the season began, it looked all but certain that it would be Pierzynki's last as a White Sox.  Chicago's top prospect, Tyler Flowers, was coming off a monstrous season at AA.  However, Flowers progress slowed dramatically at AAA, as his OPS dropped more than 200 points, and now one has to question whether he's ready to fill A. J.'s shoes in 2011.  

Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers)
5. Joe Nathan (Twins)

If you want one of these guys, you'll have to pay, either with one of your first five picks, or $25-$30 (if not more) in an auction.

6. Jose Valverde (Tigers)
7. Francisco Cordero (Reds)
8. Bobby Jenks (White Sox)
9. Trevor Hoffman (Brewers)

I really believe that this is where the value is.  Every year, the pundits become convince that these guys are just waiting to self-destruct.  Too fat.  Too old.  Too wild.  Too cocky.  But last year they combined for 130 saves.  In 2008, it was 138.  173 in '07.  136 in '06.  Many will bet against them in 2010 and maybe they'll finally be right, but me, I'll grab one of the fat boys in the middle rounds and odds are I'll be just fine.

10. Joakim Soria (Royals)
11. Brian Wilson (Giants)
12. Andrew Bailey (Athletics)
13. Huston Street (Rockies)
14. Carlos Marmol (Cubs)

The young guns.  A couple of these guys may jump into the top tier by the end of the year.  Soria would have been there already if injuries hadn't cut into his '09 campaign, thus causing potential owners some anxiety.  The price of youth is inconsistency, so buyer beware, but you'll be entertained watching them pitch.

15. Heath Bell (Padres)
16. Frank Francisco (Rangers)
17. David Aardsma (Mariners)

This trio pitched well in their first year captaining a bullpen and there's no obvious reason why they wouldn't do so again.  However, you should be slightly wary.  Literally hundreds of relievers have posted a 30-save season, but only a few dozen have done it more than once.  The sophomore season is when the wheat gets separated from the chaff when it comes to closing ballgames.

18. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
19. Brian Fuentes (Angels)
20. Billy Wagner (Braves)
21. Mike Gonzalez (Orioles)
22. Rafael Soriano (Rays)
23. Kerry Wood (Indians)
24. Octavio Dotel (Pirates)

These players have all done this job for several years and done it well, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical of them in 2010, to an extent you may not have been in the past.  Brad Lidge was a much-publicized mess last season.  There is no way Charlie Manuel will give him as long a leash if he again struggles out of the gate.  Brian Fuentes led the league in saves, but got bombed down the stretch and in the postseason, something Angels fans won't soon forget.  Wagner is old.  Wood is brittle.  You get the picture.

25. Leo Nunez (Marlins)
26. Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)
27. Matt Capps (Nationals)

This trio managed to win and hold down the closer's role for most or all of 2009, but they did so without dominating results.  They will be pressed from the start in 2010 and may not even survive Spring Training.

28. Juan Gutierrez (D-Backs)
29. Chad Qualls (D-Backs)
30. Jason Frasor (Blue Jays)
31. Brandon Lyon (Astros)
32. Matt Lindstrom (Astros)
33. Scott Downs (Blue Jays)
34. Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays)

The closer role is still TBD in Toronto, Houston, and Arizona.  These guys are likely to be battling it out all through the spring and possibly even into April, so you're unlikely to know for sure that you're even drafting a closer.  Nonetheless, it's worth speculating in the late rounds or with a few dollars, because it wouldn't surprise me at all if every guy on this list ends up with at least 8-10 saves.

35. Fernando Rodney (Angels)
36. J. P. Howell (Rays)
37. Ryan Madsen (Phillies)
38. Jim Johnson (Orioles)
39. J. J. Putz (White Sox)
40. George Sherrill (Dodgers)
41. Mike MacDougal (Marlins)

If you take one of these guys at the end of your draft, expect to be about as popular as a stock-shorter on the floor of the exchange.  By choosing a player from this tier or the one below it, you're essentially saying you have no faith in that team's current closer, either because you think they are going to be ineffective or injured.  The above group features players who have closing experience and have even had moderate success in the venture, and therefore are pretty much guaranteed the first shot at the job if the current closer does falter.

42. Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
43. Daniel Bard (Red Sox)
44. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
45. Angel Guzman (Cubs)
46. Drew Storen (Nationals)
47. Chris Perez (Indians)
48. Jason Motte (Cardinals)
49. Jose Ceda (Marlins)
50. Mike Adams (Padres)
51. Matt Thorton (White Sox)
52. Manny Corpas (Rockies)

These are "big" young arms who project as potential future closers.  It wouldn't take a miracle for them to end up doing the job as some point this season.  The first three on the list are especially interesting.  All three have the potential to contribute even as set-up men, because they'll feature good ERAs and WHIPs alongside a ton of strikeouts.  Moreover, as all three should move into either a closer or starter roles at some point in the next year or two, so they've got long-term consequences in keeper leagues.

Why is my team spending $5,000,000 on a middle reliever? (Part 1)

Regardless of your loyalties, if you're even a moderate baseball fan, at least once this year you've scratched your head while looking at the abysmal line of the Chicago White Sox in the morning's box scores. Last year the White Sox had the sixth best record in baseball, with 90 wins, even though they finished third in the AL Central and missed the playoffs. And, of course, the year before that they won the World Series. This year they are worse than the Royals...and the Rangers. Must've been a fire sale along the way somewhere, right? A Marlin-style, post-World Championship roster deconstruction? No, actually. They replaced Carl Everett with Jim Thome. They replaced Orlando Hernandez with Javier Vazquez. Both would seem to be upgrades. They did trade Freddy Garcia and Aaron Rowand to the Phillies without finding adequate replacements. John Danks has been O.K., better than Garcia in 2007. Center field has essentially been a black hole - the space where Chris Young should've been. But plenty of competitive lineups have holes (Detroit: Left Field, Cleveland: Third Base, etc.).

The real difference between 2005 and 2007 for the White Sox, besides improved competition from the rest of their division, is in the bullpen. Bobby Jenks remains, as dominant as ever at the back end, but between him and the very adequate starting rotation: nothing. In 2005 the White Sox had Dustin Hermanson, who began the season as a setup man for Shingo Takatsu, and converted 34 saves in 39 chances with a 2.04 ERA before losing his job to Shrek just before the playoffs. Neal Cotts (1.94), Cliff Politte (2.00), Damso Marte (3.73), and Luis Vizcaino (3.77) all made between 65 and 70 appearances. The Sox had half-a-dozen significant contributors out of the bullpen in their championship season - not including Takatsu, who logged 8 saves and 3 holds before being demoted and eventually let go. In 2006, the palehose 'pen was not nearly so dominant, but they still had some favorable performances. Politte (8.70) and Cotts (5.17) saw their ERAs sky-rocket, but still combined for 100 appearances. Their positions as reliable lefty-righty setup men were taken over by Mike MacDougal (1.80) and Matt Thorton (3.33). David Riske (3.93) gave them some quality innings and Brandon MacCarthy (4.68) was a workhorse with a team high in relief innings, as well as a couple of spot starts. In 2006, seven White Sox appeared 25 or more times. In 2007, the same thing can bet said, but none of those seven White Sox relievers (besides Jenks) with twenty or more games has an ERA under 4.35, and only two have kept themselves below 5.00. Nobody (again, besides Jenks) has logged fifty innings yet. The argument I appear to be making, circumspectly, is that more than their vaunted five-man rotation and Ozzie-ball offense, it was the bullpen that got the White Sox to the postseason in '05.

I will continue to argue that depth is the single most important factor in surviving the 162 game grind. Part of that depth should be in relief pitching. When you look at teams who are drastically underachieving or overachieving you'll usually find a correlation in the bullpen. Take, for instance, those pesky Kansas City Royals who recently moved in front of the Sox in the AL Central. Kansas City doesn't have a hitter with more than 16 HR or 52 RBI. No regular has an OPS over 800. Although Gil Meche (3.85) and Brian Bannister (3.27) have been a pretty good 1-2 punch in the rotation, Bannister is the only piece of the starting core with a winning record. The Royals are getting better, undoubtedly, but they still don't have whole lot to work with in the everyday lineup. What Kansas City does have is four relievers who have made more than fifty appearances already in 2007, none of which have an ERA higher than 3.87. That doesn't even include Octavio Dotel, who logged 11 saves for the Royals before getting traded to the Braves, or Zach Greinke, who between starting assignments pitched 53 relief innings, recording 55 strikeouts, and a 3.54 ERA. Even journeyman Brandon Duckworth has found his Kansas City swing, grabbing two wins, a save, and a 2.94 ERA in thirtysome innings between the bullpen and the rotation. All told, the Royals have nine pitchers with primarily relief innings who have ERAs lower than any of the members (non-Jenks) of the White Sox bullpen. Kansas City's starters aren't going to scare anybody, but when they hand the ball over with a lead, their teammates get it done. That's how Jorge de la Rosa and Odalis Perez each have 8 wins despite their 5.50+ ERAs.

So reliable bullpen arms are valuable, the trouble is identifying them. After all, keeping with the White Sox analysis, Cliff Politte, Neal Cotts, Shingo Takatsu, and Mike MacDougal all saw their ERAs rise by more than three runs from one year to the next. There have been some disastrous or near disastrous contracts given to middle relievers in recent years: Latroy Hawkins (3 years/$12 M), Danys Baez (3 years/$19 M), Steve Karsay (4 years/$21 M). But there have also been some guys probably worth well more than they get paid: Bobby Howry (3 years/$12 M), David Riske (1 year/$2 M), Mike Timlin (1 year/$3 M). How do you know which is which? I've got some ideas.