Fantastic Thoughts: Perception v. Deception in the Outfield

The first round of fantasy mags has hit the stands and mainstream sources like ESPN, CBS, etc. have started publishing their preseason rankings.  Obviously, much will change between now and Opening Day, but I'd like to highlight some relative injustices I'm seeing in my early perusal of these resources.  You can also check out my preseason rankings.

Brett Gardner, LF (Yankees) v. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (Red Sox)

After posting a WAR of 5.4 in his first full season - that's good for 5th among AL outfielders, by the way - I don't think anybody would deny that Brett Gardner is a better all-around player than Jacoby Ellsbury.  I'll acknowledge, however, that in fantasy there are occasions when it doesn't pay to take the better player and those occasions usually do involve guys like Ellsbury who have the potential to pile up stolen bases at a league-leading clip.  This isn't one of those occasions.

Ellsbury is nearly unanimously ranked as a top twenty outfielder (top five in the AL) while Gardner barely breaks the top 50.  The Sporting News has Ellsbury valued at double the price of Gardner ($30 v. $15) in AL-only auctions.  Here's a few reason why that's ludicrous, starting with the stats for each of their best seasons:

Jacoby Ellsbury '09: .301/.355/.415 - 94 R - 8 HR - 60 RBI - 70 SB - 624 AB
Brett Gardner '10: .277/.383/.379 - 97 R - 5 HR - 47 RBI - 47 SB - 477 AB

As you can see, Gardner's OBP skills aid him in piling up runs at a significantly higher rate than Ellbury, while his HR, RBI, and SB rates are comparable (if Gardner had gotten 624 AB he was on pace for 7 HR, 62 RBI, 62 SB).

600+ ABs are not assured for either of these players, but if I had to bet on one of them reaching that mark, I'd actually take Gardner.  Coming off a year in which Ellsbury was riddled with injuries and immersed in clubhouse controversies, there is no guarantee he remains an everyday player.  Mike Cameron is still hanging around.  Darnell McDonald will be looking to steal at-bats.  And Ryan Kalish is a superior offensive talent who proved in the second-half of 2010 that he's on the verge of being major-league ready.  While many assume Gardner will again be submitted to a platoon (presumably with Andruw Jones), he actually fared okay against lefties in 2010 (725 OPS).  In all likelihood, Jones will frequently spell Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, or Nick Swisher instead.

What you're looking at is a pair of speedy 27-year-old outfielders, both of whom hit in loaded lineups and have the permanent green light.  I can certainly imagine Ellsbury having a solid season and returning to his '09 production, but I think Gardner is, at the very least, comparable and could be available for as little as half the price.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Gardner #29, Ellsbury #30

Curtis Granderson, CF (Yankees) v. Austin Jackson, CF (Tigers)

Remember last winter's blockbuster.  Here's how that worked out, based on 2010 WAR:

Yankees: Curtis Granderson (3.6)
Tigers: Austin Jackson (3.8), Max Scherzer (3.7), Daniel Schlereth (0.1)
D-Backs: Ian Kennedy (2.4), Daniel Hudson (2.0), Edwin Jackson (1.8)

Yes, the early returns have been much better for Arizona and Detroit, especially when you consider that the combined salaries of Scherzer, Kennedy, Hudson, and Schlereth are less than what Granderson will make in 2011.

That aside, however, it does not make any sense to rank Austin Jackson ahead of Curtis Granderson on your fantasy draft board.  Let's take a look at their second-half splits for 2010, after Grandy got healthy and the league adjusted to the Detroit rookies:

Granderson: .253/.338/.523 - 44 R - 17 HR - 43 RBI - 5 SB - 241 AB
Jackson:  .285/.336/.397 - 51 R - 3 HR - 21 RBI - 13 SB - 305 AB

Jackson posted the highest BABIP in the majors (.396) and the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL (27.5%), both of which suggest he's a prime candidate for the dreaded sophomore slump.  Meanwhile, Granderson will hit in the midst of a thunderous lineup in a ballpark tailored for left-handed power.  Given a fully healthy 2011 campaign, he's 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank, with the potential for more.  

Hippeaux's Rankings: Granderson #19, Jackson #52

Garrett Jones, 1B/OF (Pirates) v. Basically Anybody (Anywhere)

He's consistently making the top 60 among outfielders (the Sporting News has him as high as #40) even though he was hardly a replacement level player in 2010 (0.1 WAR).  His power (21 HR) makes him fantasy relevant, but only if he's in the lineup...and Pittsburgh seems to have realized his limitations.  They signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz during the offseason and they'll bring younger, more versatile players like John Bowker, Steve Pearce, Jeff Clement, and Alex Presley to camp.  The only way Garrett Jones gets 500 AB this year is if he gets traded to the Mariners.

Meanwhile, guys like Josh Willingham, Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Brad Hawpe, and Cody Ross are cheap sources of power with similar skill sets and substantially more upside.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Willingham #45, Gomes #67, Joyce #72, Ross #74, Burrell #76, Jones #90

Chris Young, CF (D-Backs) v. Drew Stubbs, CF (Reds)

Nobody knows what to do with these guys, both of whom are coming off 20/20 seasons and have real 30/30 potential, but are also batting average drains.  I've seen them both ranked as high as 12-15 and as low as 40-45.

Finally in the "post-hype" stage of his career, Young was very quietly a top 15 fantasy outfielder in 2010.  Entering his fifth full season, Young is that magical age: 27.  The age alone is certainly not enough to assure his ascendence among the elite fantasy outfielders.  However, there are other positive indicators.  He posted a career low strikeout rate in 2010, while keeping his walk rate at a decent level (11.1%), which led to a substantial improvement in OBP (.341).  Young will probably always be a free swinger and may never hit .280, but his other talents can shine so long as he maintains this level of patience.

Stubbs started the 2010 season slow and nearly lost his job, but he came on very strong after the break and was on fire for most of the last two months.  Over a 47 game stretch he hit .305 with 9 HR, 11 steals, and a 944 OPS.  I see more streakiness in Stubbs future.  It's a fairly common problem for young power hitters.  Like the young Young, Stubbs has not figured out the strikezone.  Only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds struck out at a greater rate (32.7%) among NL hitters and they, of course, hit more homers and drew a lot more walks.

Stubbs played college ball and then spent several seasons in the minors, so he's only about a year younger than Young and shouldn't suffer as drastic growing pains (Young's development included a short return to AAA in 2009), but there will be some.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Young #14, Stubbs #28

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The New York Yankees

A Yankee win this evening would bring their playoff magic number to 1.  With both Tampa Bay and Minnesota neck-and-neck in terms of overall record, the Bombers still need a good week to assure themselves home-field advantage, but it seems a foregone conclusion, at least, that they'll once again be part of the drama of October baseball.

Earlier this week I discussed the invention of Narrative Likability Factor, a metric for baseball humanists.  NLF definitely gives priority to players and teams which have overcome obstacles and adversity, have suffered from perpetual underdog syndrome, have long-suffering fan-bases, and are replete with soulful, underrated players and coaches.

It probably goes without saying that the franchise which won last year's World Series, owns more championships than any team in professional sports history, consistently boasts the largest payrolls and revenues in the league, and caters primarily to the most affluent citizens of the nation's largest city does not score particularly high on the Narrative Likability scale.  In truth, the Evil Empire acts something like an inverse curvebreaker.  Their presence in the playoffs helps to raise everybody else's score.  Even the Phillies, two-time reigning NL Champs boasting multiple MVP winners and Cy Young candidates, seem like pesky underdogs compared to the team that ousted them just under a year ago.

Still, it seems necessary to set this bar, no matter how low.  The following narratives will probably only be appealing to that unfortunately preponderant sociopathic strain in American culture known as Yankee fandom, but here goes:

• The Boss Is Lost:  He is one of the great antiheroes of baseball history, but that doesn't necessarily make George Steinbrenner's career any less compelling.  We engorge ourselves on baseball villains as ravenously as on baseball's virtuous paragons.  In the event that - God Forbid! - the Yankees hoist another banner in 2010, there will undoubtedly be an entertaining postmodern perversity to the posthumous treatment of the curmudgeonly demagogue with "win-one-for-the-gipper" sentimentality.  His psychotic hellspawn - Hank and Hal - accept the trophy in his honor and blubber, through forced blood-tears, about their early years, hiding for weeks in tight, dark corners of the Steinbrenner mansion, quivering in response to the Boss' tendency towards filial cannibalism.  "We didn't know it then," Hank whinnies, "but he was just preparing us for the reality of the business world.  I will think of him most fondly every time we negotiate a new competitive-bargaining agreement."
• El Capitan:  Derek Jeter has been so uncharacteristically bad this year, posting by far the lowest OPS (707) of his fifteen-year career, that even his most rabid apologists have questioned the wisdom of resigning him to the kind of outlandish contract ($15-$20 Million/year) that seemed a foregone conclusion when the season began.  Several New York columnists, finding it more and more difficult to defend Jeter's performance, which has gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, have already resorted to commending him on rising to the occasion in October.  Captain Clutch, we all assume, will be right back to his old exploits (980 career OPS in ALDS) when the playoffs begin.  If this premonition proves accurate, prepare yourself for a even greater chokeload of Jeter love from Joe Buck and the rest mainstream media in the ALCS and World Series.  Jeter's postseason prowess is the well-placed dimple which provokes a father to call his plain-jane daughter "beautiful."
• Flipping the Script:  The Yankees biggest offseason acquisition, Javier Vazquez (10-9, 5.07 ERA) and Curtis Granderson (779 OPS), have had rather mediocre seasons, prompting the typical backlash from the coven of New York sportswriters who worship exclusively at the church of the trinity - Jeter, Rivera, Posada.  New guys suck, basically.  Granderson, who's been dogged by injuries much of the year, has quietly been very hot over the last month, with 8 HR, 22 RBI, and a 912 OPS.  Vazquez has continued to struggle, fueling the pervasive "can't hack it in New York" rants which began as soon as he was re-acquired.  Expect the tune to change if either or both of them step it up in October.  
• Spend, Baby, Spend:  In the wake of the MLB Confidential leaks at Deadspin, which suggest that teams like the Marlins may be making nearly as much in pure profit as the Yankees by merely pocketing their revenue-sharing dollars (many of which come directly out of the Yankee coffers), the "buying championships" argument is thinner than ever.  If there was ever a reason to root for the Yankees, this is it.  They're annually asked to subsidize their rivals, but then have to listen all year long to bitching about their $250 Million payroll while slimy owners like Jeffrey Loria trade away their best talents the moment they become eligible for arbitration.  At least the Yankees profit-model, as ugly as it may be, especially in the era of Yankee Stadium III, involves putting a competitive product on the field.  You'll need a sizable trust fund if you want to catch an obstructed view of that field, but you'll never have to worry about them starting Emilio Bonafacio is center-field in September.

At the end of last season, after the Yankees made relatively easy work of Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, I was able to take solace in the fact that if the Yankees didn't win at least one championship every decade, we might lose our sense of evil in the world.  The offseason will be even darker this year if they manage to repeat.  

Narrative Likability Factor: F (uck the Yankees!)

Fantastic Thoughts: "American League teams don't even carry five outfielders." (Outfield Preview)

It's a fantasy baseball tradition.  The vast majority of leagues require each team to carry five active outfielders.  So, while it may appear that that this position is loaded with excellent options at the beginning of your draft, it probably won't feel that way by the time you're making your fourth and fifth selections, especially if you're playing in an AL-only or large mixed league.  It's wise to get a stud early (in the first three to five rounds).

This is also one of those positions that doesn't necessarily jibe with the ever-popular "high-risk/high-reward" strategy.  Sure, I'll advocate a good many young up-and-comers, as I would at any position, but I'm also a big fan of ho-hum veterans that can be had in the late rounds or for very little money.  Nobody gets revved up about Hideki Matsui, J. D. Drew, and Jermaine Dye anymore, but for years they have been mortal locks for 20 HR, 150 R + RBI, and an average that won't hurt you.  You'll find such numbers quite satisfactory from your fifth outfielder.

Rather than rank 100+ outfielders, I'll provide my top forty and then a few pools of players who are can fulfill certain roles.

1. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2. Justin Upton (D-Backs)
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
4. Carl Crawford (Rays)
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

No matter how you rank them (I'm probably higher on Upton than most), everybody in this quintet is going to be gone by the end of the second round.  You can't go too far wrong with any of them, but the first three are especially scary, as none are older than 26.

6. Nick Markakis (Orioles)
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
8. Grady Sizemore (Indians)
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
10. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
11. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)

This may seem like a reach for some of these guys, but they are all "five-tool" players in their primes, for whom 30/30 seasons are not a terrible stretch.  The potential for that kind of across-the-board production makes them very tempting.  Choo very quietly had a breakout effort in '09, with 20 HR and 21 SB, to go along with a .300 average and 80+ runs and RBI.  With two full seasons under his belt and an improved Cleveland lineup around him, he could turn into an MVP candidate.

As a baseball fan, I hate that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee.  But as a fantasy owner, I am downright buoyant.  If Johnny Damon can hit 20+ bombs with the help of the new right-field porch in the Bronx, Granderson could have an outside shot at 40.  No matter where he hits in the New York order, Grandy is going to see better pitches and have more run-producing opportunities than he did as the leadoff hitter in Detroit.

12. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
13. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
14. Carlos Lee (Astros)
15. Jason Bay (Mets)
16. Bobby Abreu (Angels)

None of these guys are spring chickens, but they are still fairly safe plays as your #1 or #2 outfielder.  Some people will be wary of Bay because of his move to Citi Field and some will be wary of Manny because of his unusual late-season slump.  Let them worry away.

17. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
18. B. J. Upton (Rays)
19. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Here is the first tier of "injury risks."  There was much ado about Beltran's offseason surgery and the the uncertainty of the timeline for his return.  Upton struggled throughout last season and had another operation this past winter.  And, of course, Hamilton has been consistently creaky throughout his career. That said, all three of these guys, when happy and healthy, could very easily jump from the top twenty into the top five.

20. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
21. Torii Hunter (Angels)
22. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
23. Hunter Pence (Astros)

A lesser version of the second tier, guys who possess high-end speed and power.  McCutchen and Gonzalez are perhaps primed to jump into the top ten, but both will have to prove that the can reproduce (or even improve upon) their second-half surges.  Gonzalez was among the best in all of baseball during the waning months of '09, as he hit .320 with a dozen homers and a 992 OPS in about 200 plate appearances after the All-Star Break, then batted .588 (!) in the NLDS.

Detroit Trades Entire Motown Catalogue; Receives Rights to Oak Ridge Boys, Jennifer Love Hewitt

I'll admit from the start, I'm having a hard time looking at this trade objectively. For the second year in a row, there is some serious coal in my stocking. Last December, C. C. Sabathia, the big, black Buddha known for his spine-shattering clubhouse embraces as much as his incredible pitching repertoire, signed a monster contract to become just another Storm Trooper on the flight deck of the Deathstar. Coming off a performance in Milwaukee that was so soulful (and so dominant) that it conjured up thoughts of "Pops" Stargell and the late '70s Pirates, it was very painful to see "Command & Control" Sabathia grinning while holding up XXL pinstripes.

Now, exactly a year later, another handsome, charismatic brother is headed to the Bronx. Since entering the majors, Curtis Granderson has been one of my favorite players. He inspires immense joy every time he chases a liner in the gap, turns a double into a triple, smacks a ankle-high fastball into the cheap seats, or melts a sideline reporter's heart with his radiant smile. But, as with Sabathia, my enjoyment of his exploits will be seriously diminished by the fact that they will henceforth assist in spreading evil across the land. I can't help but wonder whether Brian Cashman's main objective every holiday season is pissing in my egg nog.

That said, this is a very interesting trade for all the teams involved:

Detroit

IN: RHSP Max Scherzer (25), CF Austin Jackson (23), LHRP Daniel Schlereth (24), LHRP Phil Coke (27)

OUT: CF Curtis Granderson (29), RHSP Edwin Jackson (26)

Unfortunately, the guiding factor in this trade, from the Tigers perspective, is monetary. They signed Granderson to a back-loaded contract just prior to the '08 season. The last two years he cost them only $4.5 Million. Over the next four seasons he'll cost $36.75 Million. For the Yankees, that probably looks like a relative steal. For the Tigers, who desperately need payroll flexibility, Granderson's was a contract they could actually move. Although it is a self-inflicted wound, it's hard not to feel sorry for Tigers fans who are going to spend next year watching a whole flock of albatrosses. Here are some of the commitments Detroit has in 2010.

Jeremy Bonderman [$12.5 M]

Dontrelle Willis [$12 M]

Nate Robertson [$10 M]

Carlos Guillen [$13]

Magglio Ordonez [$18 M]

Brandon Inge [$6.6 M]

That's more than $70 Million going to half a dozen players, all of whom have shown dramatic decreases in production over the last two years and present serious injury risks. There's a strong possibility half of these players hardly see the field in '10. It's hard to fault Dave Dombrowski for trying to keep together and build from the core of players who helped the Tigers go to a World Series in 2006. But right now, that seems like a long time ago.

In exchange for Granderson and Jackson (who will probably earn at least $5 Million in arbitration), the Tigers get four players who will make the league minimum for at least another year, in some cases more. Every one of these players should fit into Detroit's immediate plans. Max Scherzer is one of the most promising power pitchers in the game. He struck out 174 batter in 170 innings in '09 and posted a very respectable 4.12 ERA for Arizona. His main problem was the long ball (20 HR), which may have been exacerbated by the intimate confines of his home ballpark. Detroit is a much better place for flyball pitchers. Combined with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, the Tiger have the makings of an excellent rotation.

Austin Jackson is never going to have the extra-base power that Granderson offers, but other aspects of his game may be comparable. He hit .300 at AAA in '09 and features very good speed and defense. He isn't going to intimidate the way Granderson could when he was streaking, but Jackson could turn into a competent leadoff hitter.

Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are solid first steps towards fixing the bullpen depth issues which were a major Achilles Heel for the Tigers last season. With the two most talented relievers from '09, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, hitting the free agent market, Detroit still has a long way to go, but Coke and Schlereth are very suitable for the middle innings and could develop into more. Schlereth had a miserly 1.13 ERA in the minors and struck out a whopping 13.6 batters per nine innings.

Yankees

IN: C. Granderson

OUT: A. Jackson, P. Coke, RHSP Ian Kennedy (25)

Although I obviously appreciate the quality of Granderson as much as anybody, this looks like a very strange decision to me from New York's perspective. First and foremost, the only thing the Yankees really had an excess of this offseason were promising young centerfielders. The one thing that seemed certain about the Yankees 2010 outfield, was that it would feature at least one of the trio of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson. All three of these youngsters, like Granderson, are excellent defenders, so their value is tied somewhat to their position. Cabrera and Gardner, though respectable hitters, don't offer the kind of power one would expect from Yankee corner outfielders.

My greatest fear is that this "blockbuster" is just Cashman's prequel to a deal that will net the Yankees Roy Halladay (or another big-name starting pitcher). Such a deal would undoubtedly feature Gardner, Cabrera, or both. Cabrera is younger, more experienced, has more upside, and a more complete skillset than Gardner, who is pretty much a pure slap-hitter, so Melky should be the more coveted player. However, Cabrera's switch-hitting and particularly his ability to hit left-handed pitching make him a more natural fit in the Yankees outfield/DH rotation. Granderson stuggles mightily against lefties (484 OPS in '09), so it would be nice for the Yanks to have a solid right-handed centerfielder available.

D-Backs

IN: E. Jackson, I. Kennedy

OUT: M. Scherzer, D. Schlereth

This move will draw a fair amount of criticism from scouts and fans who believe Scherzer is on the verge of becoming an legitimate Ace. The D-Backs front office, however, is clearly concerned with the violence of his delivery, and are opting instead for the reliability of Jackson, who has made 30+ starts in every season since he became a full-time starter.

The overlooked piece in the analysis of this deal is Ian Kennedy. It is easy to forget that only a couple years ago the Yankees saw Kennedy as the equal, perhaps even the better, of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, a centerpiece of their staff for years to come. Although it didn't work out that way in '08, when he posted an 8.17 ERA in nine starts and ended up having Tommy John surgery, Kennedy's potential, when healthy, remains as high as anybody involved in this trade. The Yankees have chosen to give up on him. For a team that has continually struggled to develop and maintain starting pitchers over the last decade, that may prove to be very unwise. During his minor league career, Kennedy made 43 starts and posted a miniscule 1.95 ERA with 273 K in 249 IP and a 0.99 WHIP. If Kennedy retains all his skills and Jackson merely maintains his status quo, Arizona could be the big winner in this deal.

Whatever happened to Gyro-ball mania?!?...And other stories of oversight in 2008.

A year ago, the world, and especially ESPN, could not get enough of Daisuke Matsuzaka.  As a result he was the most watched pitcher with a 4.40 ERA.  His overall numbers were respectable (15-12, 201 K), but he was prone to high pitch counts and the meltdown inning, especially in the second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA).  On most nights he looked like a legitimate #3 starter, but very rarely like a $100 Million man.

This year Dice-K is getting less attention than Jed Lowrie, but he's pitching like he invented the fastball.  If his lead holds up this evening against the Orioles, he'll pick up his 15th win of the season, equaling his total from last year, despite the fact that it is only the middle of August and he missed most of June.  More importantly, those fifteen victories are balanced by only two losses and an ERA (2.72) that will rank in the top ten in baseball once he gets a few more innings.  

It's true that a Dice-K start is still a bit stressful for Red Sox fans.  He doesn't seem to like to pitch from the wind-up and he always seems to throw a hundred pitches by the fifth inning.  But it is hard to argue with the results and although he's giving up even more walks than he did in 2007, he is extraordinarily stingy with the base hits.  His Opponent's Batting Average, .208, is the best in baseball for pitchers with 120+ innings.  It's time to start acknowledging that he is something pretty special.  These are the numbers of a legitimate Ace.  Dice-K headlines my team of underrated performers from 2008.

Yadier Molina - C - St. Louis Cardinals

This is the youngest Molina's fourth full season and he is still just 25.  He has long been considered among the top defensive backstops in the baseball and seem primed to pick up his first Gold Glove at the end of the season.  Even more exciting for Cardinals fans is that Yadier has significantly improved his offensive contribution for the third consecutive season, hitting over .300 and posting the lowest strikeout rate in the MLB (14.6 PA/K).  It remains to be seen whether he will develop power (6 HR in 2008), but regardless, Yadier now possesses enough tools to be a starting catcher in the big leagues for a decade or more, which is no small feat.

Jason Giambi - 1B - New York Yankees

Joe Girardi refuses to make him a full-time first baseman or give him consistent starts against lefties, but the Giambino has once again recovered from a modest April to post very solid overall numbers.  This will be the third season since his steroid-confessing cancer-shortened 2004 in which he gets to 30 HR and post an OPS over 900.  He may not be worth $20 Million, but there are very few players in baseball who can do what he does in 140 games.  Next year he'll probably be doing it somewhere other than New York and I bet the mighty Yankees will have trouble filling his shoes.  

Mark DeRosa - 2B/UT - Chicago Cubs

One has to wonder: if the Cubs had managed to trade for Brian Roberts this past offseason, would Mark DeRosa have seen in fewer at-bats?  DeRosa has played 71 games at second base...and 72 at other places on the diamond.  He has a better OPS when he plays 3B or LF than when he's up the middle, so his lack of position security hasn't really effected his hitting.  DeRosa already has career highs in Runs (79), HR (14), BB (60), SB (5), and OPS (828), and needs only three more RBI to tie his career best (74).  DeRosa's consistency and flexibility have allowed the Cubs to whether injuries to Soriano and Lee, as well as spell Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome.  Jim Hendry was heavily criticized when he gave DeRosa $13 Million for three years going into 2007, but DeRosa has had the two best years of his career, all things considered, and looks like a deal this season ($4.5 Million) compared to Orlando Hudson ($6.25 M), Brian Roberts ($6.3 M), and Jeff Kent ($9 M).  

An honorable mention needs to be made for Placido Polanco, perennially underrated, who is once again hitting well above .300 for Detroit and playing stellar defense for the same price as DeRosa.

Melvin Mora - 3B - Baltimore Orioles

After a second consecutive sub-par season in 2007, it looked like Mora's days as a regular might be nearing their end, but he has rebounded in a big way this year, helping to Orioles to remain respectable during their significant rebuilding process.  He is going to attain the 100-RBI plateau for only the second time in his career and the first since 2004 and may make a run at his career mark for homers (27) as well.  At this time last year, Mora looked like more contract baggage that the Orioles would be unable to unload, but if he can match this numbers for only $9 Million in 2009, Mora would be a outright steal for a contender who needs 3B help (Dodgers, Twins, Mariners, etc.).

Jhonny Peralta - SS - Cleveland Indians 

Only Hanley Ramirez (929) and Jose Reyes (851) have posted better OPS numbers than Jhonny Picks (815) in 2008.  He is way ahead of AL All-Star favorites Derek Jeter (760) and Michael Young (751).  He is second among shortstops in HR (19) and tops in RBI (67), despite playing for a team that has really struggled to score runs at times this season.  There has been some speculation about how much longer Peralta will remain a shortstop, with slick-fielding Asdrubel Cabrera already looking fairly comfortable at the major-league level, but Peralta fielding statistics have been well above the league average the last two seasons.  He is under contract until 2010 for a very reasonable price and he is only 26.  If the Indians want to supplant him, they could probably get a great return on the trade market while allowing him to remain at his favored position.

Raul Ibanez - LF - Seattle Mariners

Ibanez seems to be a candidate for the all-underrated team every season, partially because his impressive tools don't include the 30-HR power common amongst corner outfielders.  Ibanez is, however, on his way to his third consecutive 100-RBI season, despite the Mariners terrible offense and he may set career marks in doubles, average, and OPS.  Ibanez will be a free agent this offseason and his age (36) might scare teams away from a long-term contract.  But, he clearly still has a lot to offer on offense, especially for a team who won't rely on him as their primary middle-of-the-order presence.  

Curtis Granderson - CF - Detroit Tigers

It would be hard to duplicate the season he had in 2007, but because of Detroit's disappointing performance as a team and his early-season injury, people seem to have completely forgotten about one of the most exciting young players in the game.  In some ways, Granderson is actually showing improvement over last year (a scary thought) as his walk rate and OBP have gone up, while his strikeout rate has gone down, and his average and slugging have remained essentially the same.  In far fewer at-bats than last year, he's still on pace for around 20 HR and 100 runs scored.

Andre Ethier - RF - Los Angeles Dodgers

He's the least well-known name in the flabbergasting Dodger outfield rotation that now features Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, and Juan Pierre, but with the exception of Manny, who hit most of his dingers in Boston, Ethier has as manny homers as any of them (tied with Kemp for the team lead at 15).  Ethier doesn't have Kemp's raw tools, but he has better plate discipline (38 BB/66 K/393 AB compared to 35/123/463 for Kemp) and shows a fair amount of power.  Unlike Grady Little, who never seemed to believe in Ethier, Joe Torre has continued to favor him over his veteran alternatives (Pierre and Jones).

Fred Lewis - DH/OF - San Francisco Giants

As a bit of an honorable mention, I'd like to bring Fred Lewis to your attention.  He's been asked to fill some pretty big shoes, taking over for Barry Bonds in left field.  Last season, many scouts thought he was a pretty borderline prospect, even after his much-publicized cycle.  However, the Giants chose to give him an everyday shot this season (what did they have to lose?) and it seems to have paid off.  He looks like Granderson-lite, hitting out of the leadoff spot.  He's got great speed, power to all fields, and hits for a decent average (.284), but also has a propensity to strikeout (114 K).  Granderson raised his OBP in each of his first three seasons.  If Lewis can do the same, while developing 15-20 HR power, he will be a very valuable part of San Francisco's new look.