Ugh La La...

The trading season got kick-started this week when the Florida Marlins, baseball's current leader in unabashed greed, sent Dan Uggla to their NL East rival, the Atlanta Braves, for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.  Uggla's name has been circling the rumor mill for well over a year, so nobody should've been surprised that the Marlins eventually pulled the trigger.  Bu, many were critical of what they got in return: a utility infielder coming off a career year and a rookie reliever who probably profiles as a LOOGY.

Uggla, I grant, is a likable, somewhat under-the-radar run producer.  In five seasons he's been utterly consistent - 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank.  And he plays a position, second base, that isn't replete with power-hitters.  Since integration (1947), only two second-basemen have had more homers than him at his age: Alfonso Soriano and Ryne Sandberg.

That said, like Soriano, he doesn't play the middle infield very well and is likely headed for a position switch.  His UZR in 2010 was -7.4.  Only Skip Schumaker, the converted outfielder, was worse among National Leaguers.  Uggla has been consistently near the bottom of the league in every defensive metric ever since his rookie year.  It seems fairly certain that sooner or later, perhaps as soon as next season, Uggla will be moved to a corner position, where his offensive numbers, while still solid, will no longer dramatically separate him from his peers.

Uggla is potentially a pretty one-dimensional hitter.  His .287 average in 2010 was a career high, as was his .369 OBP.  He doesn't steal bases.  He strikes out a ton.  What he does well, however, is hit homers and he sees lots of pitches.  Both things the Braves desperately need.  Uggla's 4.20 PPA was good for eleventh in baseball in 2010.  That, as much as his power, may explain the Braves interest.  Among their regulars, only Derrek Lee and Jason Heyward were particularly patient hitters in 2010, and Lee is headed into free agency.  Paired with Heyward, Brian McCann, and possibly a healthy Chipper Jones, Uggla might help force opposing pitchers to work a little harder than they did this year.

It is quite possible that Uggla's recent campaign represents the furthest extent of his talents.  He'll be 31 before next season begins.  He got a relatively late start, as a 26-year-old rookie.  So, he's got one more year of arbitration, which will probably cost the Braves somewhere in the vicinity of $10 Million.  And he will probably be looking for $10-$15 Million per season for his next contract, which will take him into his late 30s.  Considering his defensive limitations and his age, it will be risky to sign him to a long-term deal, especially if he has another relatively big season in 2011.

The Marlins, to nobody's great surprise, prioritized cheapness.  Omar Infante, like Uggla, is under contract for only one more season, but at about 25% of the cost ($2.5 Million).  He's also two years younger than Uggla.  Mike Dunn is still two full seasons away from being eligible for arbitration and will be 26 when the 2011 season begins.  So, all told, depending upon who Dunn replaces in the Marlins bullpen, they'll be getting somewhere around $7-$10 Million in salary relief.

In terms of overall production, they may not be giving up as much as it initially appears.  Infante's 2010 breakout, which got him elected to the All-Star team, surprised pretty much everybody. But, maybe it shouldn't have.  Between '08 and '09 he hit .298 with a 753 OPS, 69 R, and 67 RBI in roughly a season's worth of at-bats (520).  From that level, it isn't a ridiculous jump for a 28-year-old to hit .321 with a 775 OPS, 65 runs, and 47 RBI in 471 AB.

Even if Infante can maintain his high average (which I doubt, .300 is probably a reasonable expectation), he's still no match for Uggla offensively.  However, Uggla's offensive advantage is balanced to some extent by Infante's advantage on defense, where he is relatively effective and very flexible.  Infante logged innings at five different positions in 2010 and was, at least according to UZR, average or better at four of them.  Such "utility" allowed Infante to log a WAR of 2.7 in 2010.  Uggla has only beat that number twice in his five seasons (including 2010).

Finally, Michael Dunn, I think, is actually the key to this deal.  Since being converted into a reliever, Dunn has raced through the minors, dominating at every step of the way.  And it didn't stop when he was promoted to big leagues during the second half of 2010.  In 19 innings, he posted a 1.89 ERA and 12.8 K/9.  It's a small sample size, but combined with his minor league stats it suggests that he will be an effective lefty middleman immediately and certainly has the stuff to pitch in the late innings eventually, especially if he cuts down on his walks.  Dominant left-handed relievers are a rare breed, which is why guys like Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are still getting relatively big paycheck in their forties.  Every team needs one and the Marlins may have found theirs on the cheap.

While some have suggested that the Uggla trade is an obviously one-sided payroll dump that potentially upsets the balance in the NL East, I actually think both teams got better with this trade.  The Braves got a middle-of-the-order presence to bolster their mediocre lineup.  It may be exactly what they need to make them a more serious contender next October.  The Marlins got better defensively, as they will be able to slide Chris Coghlan in at second base and use Infante all over the diamond.  They also filled a key role in their bullpen and gave themselves some payroll flexibility.  One could suggest that John Buck got signed with the money the Marlins saved on Dan Uggla.

It bothers me as much as anybody that the Marlins have less than $30 Million in commitments for 2011, even though we're well aware they have at least that much money just from revenue-sharing, but we shouldn't let that prejudice effect our ability to analyze this trade.  The Marlins are parting ways with a player who is getting more expensive, but is likely to be less productive.  They are getting younger, undervalued players in return.  We generally applaud teams like the Rays and Twins for making these types of decisions.

The Spring Training Position Battle EVERYBODY'S Talking About: Blue Jays Catcher

I don't have to tell you that when Toronto announced the signing of Jose Molina this afternoon, the shockwaves reverberated around the world.  It was a press conference the baseball media had been anticipating for days and marked the resolution of a free agent storyline that had dominated the headlines of months.  What may especially surprise you is that the man known primarily as "the middle Molina," "the other Molina," or "the Molina that can't hit" may not be guaranteed a spot on Toronto's opening day roster.  The Blue Jays don't have many players with the "star power" of the former Yankee and Angels back-up, but Cito Gaston is renowned for his willingness to go with the hot hand, so Molina will have to earn his way, just like anybody else.

The Blue Jays rookie GM, Alex Anthropologist, has spent his first offseason in the typical fashion of a young administrator looking to make his mark, he's been collecting second and third string catchers.  He began on the 11th of December by signing John Buck, a product of the Kansas City farm system, that bastion of drafting and development.  Buck started each of the last five seasons as the Royals primary backstop and proceeded each time to lose at-bats to cagey veterans with household names like Paul Bako, Jason LaRue, and Miguel Olivo.  At the beginning of 2010, after nearly 600 major-league games, Buck still hasn't raised his OBP to .300

Thankfully, the Jays GM didn't stop there.  On the very next day he re-signed Raul Chavez, a 37-year-old journeyman, who in fourteen seasons has never been deemed worthy of as many as 200 major-league at-bats.  A week later, in the blockbuster trade of the offseason, when Anthopoulos sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, one of the prospects he got in return was a catcher named Travis d'Arnaud.  d'Arnaud hasn't advanced past A ball, but his 738 OPS at that level suggest he profiles as, well, Raul Chavez or, with a little luck, Ramon Castro.

Meanwhile, the Jays have two young, twenty-something catchers, J. P. Arencibia and Kyle Phillips, each of whom now have had considerable experience and moderate success at AAA.  There is absolutely no reason to believe the combo of Arencibia and Phillips would be any worse, at least offensively, than Buck and Molina, or Buck and Castro.  Even if they were, getting them experience in the big leagues during a season in which Toronto must be considered a rebuilding franchise, seems a worthwhile proposition...seem, in fact, very much like the definition of "rebuilding."  Even if Anthopoulos and Gaston have reservations about going with two rookie catchers, I still can't understand why they need THREE hopeless veterans.  What a nightmare the past year has been for Blue Jays fans.