Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

Fantastic Thoughts: "Pitching and defense may win championships in reality, but fantasy baseball pennants are all about the O." (Shortstop Preview)

In my first "Fantastic Thoughts" column of 2010, I encouraged readers to think about the way the recent trend toward defense might effect playing time and therefore change how they rate players, especially at the most challenging positions, shortstop being first among them.  That said, getting the ABs in just half the battle.  You still need to employ a player who has a prayer at the plate.  Ask anybody who has made the mistake of owning Jason Kendall or Adam Everett just how much it sucks to have 600 plate appearances from a guy that hits .240.  In what follows, because of lack of depth at the position, I will consistently endorse shortstops based on potential rather than production (except for the elite class).  Basically, I'd rather have a 22-year-old hitting .240 than a 35-year-old hitting .240.  The result may end up the same, but, as Elvis Andrus and Everth Cabrera proved in 2009, young players can make significant strides over the course of a six month season.  That .240 in April may be .280 in September, which still isn't great, but at this position, you're looking for little victories.

1. Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
2. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
3. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
4. Jose Reyes (Mets)

For more that a decade now, the early rounds of fantasy drafts have been governed largely by the dispersal of the "Big Three," a rotating trio of shortstops capable of producing like iron-gloved first-baseman.  The separation between the "Big Three" and the rest of the shortstop is perhaps the largest gap at any position, thus increasing the boon of selecting one of them.  The cast over the years has included a number of recognizable hypenations: A-Rod, Han-Ram, J-Roll, No-Mar, etc.

This year, the trio becomes a quartet, as Troy Tulowitzki joins incumbents Rollins, Reyes, and Ramirez.  While Hanley obviously belongs at the top (he's likely the #2 pick in most drafts), we could bicker at length about how to rank the other three.  Tulo hasn't put up back-to-back elite performances yet.  Reyes is coming off a major injury.  Rollins had a horrific first half in '09.  I wouldn't fault you for backing any one of these guys over the others, but I will point out that J-Roll, in his "off year," still managed 100 R (#4 among SS), 77 RBI (#5), 21 HR (#3), and 31 SB (#2).  There wasn't a single shortstop who came close to matching him in all four categories and only one player in all of baseball eclipsed his production across the board (Ian Kinsler).  Assuming J-Roll's 2010 is more like his second half (801 OPS) than his first half (642 OPS), we can expect him to once again warrant selection in the top two or three rounds.

5. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
6. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [will become eligible at 3B in most leagues]
7. Jason Bartlett (Rays)
8. Alexei Ramirez (White Sox)

Ramirez was a very popular sleeper selection prior to 2009, but he failed to build on his solid rookie season.  I'm among those who would be willing to lay double or nothing that that 25/25 season that many people were expecting is still on the way, but I can't base that prediction on much more than a gut feeling.

Jason Bartlett is the opposite case.  Nobody expected his breakout in '09, as he hit more homers (14) than he had in his previous four seasons combined (11) and only Jeter and Hanley hit for a higher average (.320).  Bartlett is 30-years-old.  Is he a late bloomer, or was '09 a fluke?

Tejada's excellent showing in '09 continues to be overlooked.  He's no longer the power threat he was in his prime, but he still led the league in doubles, his a sparkling .313, and provided great run production for the position (83 R, 86 RBI).  It's hard to see how the move to Baltimore hurts him in any way.

9. J. J. Hardy (Twins)
10. Yunel Escobar (Braves)
11. Asdrubel Cabrera (Indians)
12. Stephen Drew (D-Backs)

As with Ramirez, you'd be drafting these guys for their upside as much as for any proven production, although they do all have at least one solid season in the rearview mirror.  Hardy and Drew have 20 HR power, but they're also strikeout machines.  Cabrera and Escobar don't excel at any particular aspect of the fantasy game, but each is quite likely to put up a .285-80-10-75-15 line, which is nothing to sneeze at from this position.

April showers...

Over the last couple of days in various leagues I have acquired Brandon Phillips, Chris B. Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  One may assume this suggests I've been very actively seeking trades, when in fact all I've had to do is make my daily trip to the waiver wire.  These are some pretty exceptional players to find in the free agent pool and their previous owners will undoubtedly be kicking themselves a few months from now.  Although Brandon Phillips is the extremest example I've every seen, every spring I find myself staring in wonderment at the booty available to me because some sap is too impatient to wait for the inevitable warm weather hot streak from his high-round draft pick.  First and foremost, don't be that guy!!!  Secondly, even if you can't pick up one of these players for the paltry price of Mike Fontenot or Fred Lewis, you may be able to exploit a competitor's impatience via trade.  Here are a few slow-starters I would recommend targeting.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

There is a whole lot of hubbabaloo over at the world-wide leader about how scouts are concerned about David Ortiz.  Those of us with memories longer than six weeks, however, recall a similar stream of Big Papi pessimism last April and May.  In his first 16 games in 2008 Ortiz his .111 with one lonely long ball.  However, from mid-April until he hurt his wrist at the beginning of June, Papi hit .313 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBI in 38 games.  Throughout his career April has been Ortiz's weakest in both AVG and OPS.  Although he still hasn't gone deep in 2009, he is 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and 4 RBI in the last three games.  The numbers are going to be there in August, which means that now is the best possible time to go get him.

Alexei Ramirez - SS - Chicago White Sox

Let's face it, winter in Cuba and winter in Chicago are very different seasons.  Last April the White Sox mysterious off-season acquisition had a laughable 354 OPS.  He took over as the starter at second on May 16.  From that point on he hit .304 with an 833 OPS.  There are probably owners out there who are prepared to declare Alexei a fluke.  The way I see it, his April OPS in 2009 is 60 points higher than in '08 and I think that's a reasonable improvement to expect in the month which follow.

Brandon Phillips - 2B - Cincinnati Reds

I've never disguised my man-crush for Phillips, so my faith shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.  One thing particularly stands out to me about his statistics so far.  He's already taken eleven walks.  In the entirety of '08 he had 39 walks, which was a career high!  When a hitter dedicates himself to working counts he often suffers a slump, but in the long run it facilitates major improvements.  As such, this slump could actually be a good sign for Phillips owners.