Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work.  You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon.  As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues.  Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting.  It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math.  There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October.  Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned.  Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain.  Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base.  Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked.  John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson.  That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season.  The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings.  Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball.  It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players.  Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings.  Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco.  Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced.  Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs.  But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities.  Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs.  And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that.  Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career).  Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly).  The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B.  Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos.  He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll.  One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round.  The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder."  Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders.  Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Meet the Crumbs

There are still some nice players inexplicably buried in the bargain bin: Orlando Hudson, Johnny Damon, Erik Bedard, Jermaine Dye, Kiko Calero, etc.  No doubt a number of teams are seriously considering such additions.  The Hot Stove news this week, however, has been mainly about bit players (with the exception of Ben Sheets), as teams look to add inexpensive depth to their major-league roster.

With the addition of Randy Winn, the Johnny Damon era in the Bronx is officially over, which is bad news for both parties.  Damon won't find a more ideal situation.  The ballpark in New York was tailormade for his swing and the two-hole in the Yankees lineup ranks among the poshest accommodations MLB has to offer, as it sits amidst three players whose combined net worth is over a billion dollars.  He'll turn over that luxury suite to Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson, or Robinson Cano, but while all three players are admirable in their own right, none offers exactly the combination of speed, power, and discipline that made Damon such a perfect fit.  He could act an auxiliary leadoff hitter, an intelligent baserunner, who, though he speed is certainly declining, still went 12 for 12 in stolen base attempts in '09.  He was a great situational hitter, who could pick up a 2-out RBI, advance a runner, or try for extra bases.  And, most importantly, he wore pitchers down, seeing well over four pitches per plate appearance in each of his years as a Yankee.  I'll point especially to Game 2 of the ALDS against Minnesota this past October, when Damon went 0-4 with a walk, but made Twins pitcher throw him more than two dozen pitches (27, to be exact).  Damon is a foul-ball machine, a kind of RBI man's fluffer, who assured that Tex and A-Rod found an opposing pitcher who was already tired, frustrated, and desperate.


Which brings me to Randy Winn.  Randy Winn is, to some extent, Johnny Damon lite.  Like Damon, Winn is deep into his thirties (he'll turn 36 during the 2010 season), so his skills have declined noticeably.  But, also like Damon, he is a superb, conditioned athlete, who gets the most out of his aging body.  He's still got some speed (16 SB in '09), is an excellent baserunner, and an outstanding defender.  He doesn't have Damon's power, but he will contribute good at-bats and isn't reluctant to take a walk.  Randy Winn is a reliable, likable player, who will undoubtedly be a welcome addition to the Yankee clubhouse.


And that's the crucial point about this addition.  Randy Winn will accept whatever role Girardi gives him, both because that's the kind of player he is and because he's been in the league for a dozen years and has yet to reach the postseason.  I expect he'll only start a game or two a week, primarily against left-handed pitchers, but Nick Swisher will very rarely be in right field late in games that the Yankees have the lead.  With Winn running alongside Granderson and Gardner, New York will boast a very good defensive outfield (which seems to be the prevailing theme of this offseason).


Almost simultaneous with the Winn signing, another former Yankee, Xavier Nady, was also contracted to be a fourth outfielder, for the Cubs.  It's an extremely low-risk signing, as even if Nady reaches all his incentives (cross your fingers, Cubs fans), he will only make about $5 Million.  Nady has a chance to be next year's version of Bobby Abreu.  Although he's hardly as proven as Abreu, he is also a player with a good track record and potentially All-Star skills, who's been forced to sign a contract for below his expected market value.  Nady missed all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery, but in 2008 he hit .305 with 25 HR and 97 RBI in a season split between Pittsburgh and New York.


Unfortunately, Nady can't play centerfield, he's right-handed, and a free-swinger, and in each of those characteristics he resembles commodities the Cubs already have a lot of.  But when a guy with a lot of upside comes this cheap, it's worth taking a shot.


I feel the same way about what was the quietest and may turn out to be one of the best signings of this offseason, the Cubs acquisition of Chad Tracy.  Tracy doesn't have a natural place to play in Chicago, as Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee hold down the corner infield spots and, as mentioned above, there have an abundance of corner outfield options.  That said, Tracy gives the Cubs a decent insurance plan and could be a potent left-handed pinch hitter.  It's been an extended rough stretch for Tracy, as he hasn't gotten 300 AB since 2006.  He's been slowed by injuries and fell behind guys like Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson on Arizona's depth chart.  But Tracy is still in his twenties and has significant power (he hit 27 HR in '05).      

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers

Offseason Prospectus #1: New York Yankees

Congrats, Yankee fans! Your team now considers its ticket-gouging practices not only justified, but inspired! Expect another price hike for 2010!

Congrats, Yankee fans! Enjoy a winter of typical smugness and self-satisfaction as you root for your other favorite franchises: Dow Jones, Exxon Mobil, Citibank, the LAPD, and the national debt clock (yay, it's up again!!!).

Little known fact, when Yankees fans watch poker, they root for the house: "Look at the rake on that hand! Damn, Harrah's stock is on the rise! Go dealer!"

To everybody else, take solace in the fact that if the Yankees don't win a couple times every decade, our spite would be unjustified. The New York Yankees are an institution, like corporate greed, political graft, abuse of power, and hate crime, which defines our sense of "evil" in the world. Without them, we might be in danger of becoming confused, apathetic, and superficial creatures, absent the ethical or moral center which guides not only our beliefs and actions, but allows us to experience the full range of human emotions, from pride and joy to fear and grief. Our entire existence would be a desperate affectation of behaviors associated with actual feeling only via observation. Our only true connection to "the real" would be the overwhelming anxiety brought about by considering the potential revelation of our monstrous inhumanity. Imagine the horror...

And thus, unfortunately, I begin my discussion of baseball's "hot stove" season...

Free Agents:

Johnny Damon (36) LF/DH

Chad Gaudin (27) RHSP

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33) IF/OF

Eric Hinske (32) PH

Hideki Matsui (35) DH/OF

Jose Molina (34) C

Xavier Nady (31) RF

Andy Pettitte (37) LHSP

Arbitration Eligible:

Brian Bruney (28) RHRP

Melky Cabrera (25) CF

Joba Chamberlain (24) RHSP

Phil Hughes (23) RHRP

Chien-Ming Wang (30) RHSP

ETA 2010?:

Francisco Cervelli (24) C

Kei Igawa (30) LHSP

Austin Jackson (23) CF

The Yankees will, of course, be considered among the favorites to win another championship going into 2010. They will also, once again, be a very active participant in the free agent market. Seven guys from their World Series roster are eligible for free agency and three of them - Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Andy Pettitte - were World Series heroes, perhaps elevating their bargaining position this offseason.

Outside their popularity with the fans and in the clubhouse, resigning Damon and Matsui doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Both have edged into their upper 30s, are basically worthless on defense, and a touch injury-prone. The Yankees have several players - Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and even Derek Jeter - who could probably stand to get a few extra games at DH to help keep them fresh throughout the season. That option will not exist if Matsui stays, as his knees made it impossible for him to play the outfield at all this season. The Yankees will likely pursue the top tier of free-agent outfielders, specifically Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Their success in procuring either of them might spell the end for Damon and/or Matsui.

New York also has a corps of major-league ready outfielders within the system, although none who profile as power-hitting corner outfielders like Matsui or Xavier Nady. Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson are all probably capable of holding down a starting center-fielder job this coming season, but, obviously, they can't all do it in New York. I expect at least one from this trio will be part of a package for a starting pitcher, a corner outfielder, or for role players in the vein of the departing benchwarmers, Hinske and Hairston.

The other major offseason questions in New York will revolve around the back-end of the rotation. Andy Pettitte clearly pitched well enough to be given another year at $5,000,000 to act as the third or fourth starter, but the tears in his eyes and the tip of cap as he walked off the field last night suggested, to me at least, a man consumed with the idea that this was the conclusion of his encore performance. You can't end on a much higher note than winning the deciding game of a World Series. He is, currently, at best, a borderline Hall of Famer, but hanging on too long could do more harm than good to his legacy.

Girardi will again endure a variety of second-guessing regarding the so-called "Joba rules." I expect Chamberlain will be much better next year, in his second full season as a starting pitcher, but New York fans would clearly prefer than he be under as little pressure as possible, so finding a #3 to slot in front of him will probably be among Brian Cashman's priorities. The Yankees deep pockets make them real candidates to overpay for a high-risk/high-reward guys like Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Joel Pineiro.

Of relatively minor interest to the casual fan will be negotiations with Jose Molina. Francisco Cervelli looked pretty good in his limited audition in '09 and would seem a competent back up. However, because of Posada's age, the Yankees use their backup more than most teams, both as a late-inning defensive replacement, the personal catcher for A.J. Burnett, and for stretches when Posada is only capable of DH-ing. Girardi clearly highly valued Molina in that role this season (perhaps seeing a little of himself) and he remains one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.

A final note: the fact that Girardi turned to Chad Gaudin for only one inning during the entire postseason suggests that he has very little faith. However, Gaudin, despite his throughly average overall numbers (6-10, 4.64 ERA), had some flashes of brilliance this year as a starter (8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 9K v. Texas in June, for instance). He has already spent six seasons in the big leagues (mainly as a reliever), but will be just 27-years-old (that magic 27) on Opening Day 2010. The team who takes an inexpensive roll of the dice on him as their fourth or fifth starter could be looking at one of the year's best bargains.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/24):

SS Derek Jeter (R)

LF Johnny Damon (L) FA

1B Mark Texeira (S)

3B Alex Rodriguez (R)

CF Curtis Granderson (L)

2B Robinson Cano (L)

RF Nick Swisher (S)

C Jorge Posada (S)

DH Nick Johnson (L)

SP C. C. Sabathia (L)

SP Javier Vazquez (R)

SP A. J. Burnett (R)

SP Andy Pettitte (L)

SP Joba Chamberlain (R)

CL Mariano Rivera (R)

SU Phil Hughes (R)

SU Damaso Marte (L)

MR David Robertson (R)

MR Alfredo Aceves (R)

LOOGY Boone Logan (L)

SWING Chad Gaudin (R)

C Francisco Cervelli (R)
1B Juan Miranda (L)

IF Ramiro Pena (S)

OF Brett Gardner (L)