It's a fantasy baseball tradition. The vast majority of leagues require each team to carry five active outfielders. So, while it may appear that that this position is loaded with excellent options at the beginning of your draft, it probably won't feel that way by the time you're making your fourth and fifth selections, especially if you're playing in an AL-only or large mixed league. It's wise to get a stud early (in the first three to five rounds).
This is also one of those positions that doesn't necessarily jibe with the ever-popular "high-risk/high-reward" strategy. Sure, I'll advocate a good many young up-and-comers, as I would at any position, but I'm also a big fan of ho-hum veterans that can be had in the late rounds or for very little money. Nobody gets revved up about Hideki Matsui, J. D. Drew, and Jermaine Dye anymore, but for years they have been mortal locks for 20 HR, 150 R + RBI, and an average that won't hurt you. You'll find such numbers quite satisfactory from your fifth outfielder.
Rather than rank 100+ outfielders, I'll provide my top forty and then a few pools of players who are can fulfill certain roles.
1. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2. Justin Upton (D-Backs)
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
4. Carl Crawford (Rays)
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
No matter how you rank them (I'm probably higher on Upton than most), everybody in this quintet is going to be gone by the end of the second round. You can't go too far wrong with any of them, but the first three are especially scary, as none are older than 26.
6. Nick Markakis (Orioles)
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
8. Grady Sizemore (Indians)
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
10. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
11. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
This may seem like a reach for some of these guys, but they are all "five-tool" players in their primes, for whom 30/30 seasons are not a terrible stretch. The potential for that kind of across-the-board production makes them very tempting. Choo very quietly had a breakout effort in '09, with 20 HR and 21 SB, to go along with a .300 average and 80+ runs and RBI. With two full seasons under his belt and an improved Cleveland lineup around him, he could turn into an MVP candidate.
As a baseball fan, I hate that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee. But as a fantasy owner, I am downright buoyant. If Johnny Damon can hit 20+ bombs with the help of the new right-field porch in the Bronx, Granderson could have an outside shot at 40. No matter where he hits in the New York order, Grandy is going to see better pitches and have more run-producing opportunities than he did as the leadoff hitter in Detroit.
12. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
13. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
14. Carlos Lee (Astros)
15. Jason Bay (Mets)
16. Bobby Abreu (Angels)
None of these guys are spring chickens, but they are still fairly safe plays as your #1 or #2 outfielder. Some people will be wary of Bay because of his move to Citi Field and some will be wary of Manny because of his unusual late-season slump. Let them worry away.
17. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
18. B. J. Upton (Rays)
19. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)
Here is the first tier of "injury risks." There was much ado about Beltran's offseason surgery and the the uncertainty of the timeline for his return. Upton struggled throughout last season and had another operation this past winter. And, of course, Hamilton has been consistently creaky throughout his career. That said, all three of these guys, when happy and healthy, could very easily jump from the top twenty into the top five.
20. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
21. Torii Hunter (Angels)
22. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
23. Hunter Pence (Astros)
A lesser version of the second tier, guys who possess high-end speed and power. McCutchen and Gonzalez are perhaps primed to jump into the top ten, but both will have to prove that the can reproduce (or even improve upon) their second-half surges. Gonzalez was among the best in all of baseball during the waning months of '09, as he hit .320 with a dozen homers and a 992 OPS in about 200 plate appearances after the All-Star Break, then batted .588 (!) in the NLDS.
Showing posts with label Wladimir Balentien. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wladimir Balentien. Show all posts
Monday, February 15, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #19: The Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have gotten an uncharacteristic flurry of national press this week (I highly recommend this article at MLB.com), thanks in large part to their surprise signing of Cuban phenom, Aroldis Chapman. Aroldis may not be a household name, but he's gotten about as much buzz as any 21-year-old pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg. Like Strasburg, he can throw in the triple digits, as he proved last spring during the World Baseball Classic. Unlike Strasburg, there is very little evidence by which to predict Chapman's potential or longevity. While scouts and even average fans got the chance to see every college start Strasburg made during his exceptional 2009 season at San Diego State, Chapman has pitched the majority of his innings behind the Iron Curtain, as Cuba used him sparingly in international play, perhaps as a way of preventing his defection...which seemed, nonetheless, inevitable. Although he was hardly spectacular during the Classic (0-1, 5.68 ERA), buzz about him dominated coverage of the event, much as buzz about Dice-K dominated the 2006 version.
Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps. In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year. He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP). Cueto will turn 24 in February. Volquez is 26.
Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans. Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels. Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.
The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition. In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.
Free Agents:
Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP
Arbitration Eligible:
Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP
ETA 2010?:
Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP
The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions. The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior). Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.
In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads. Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.
Bronson Arroyo is the prototype. Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after). He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball. After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings. If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati. The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start. And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest! At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32. Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA. He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.
The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation. When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5. However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.
Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health. Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips. There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09. If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.
There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field. There are several interesting candidates for the outfield. Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early. He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.
His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year. Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559. Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.
The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring. If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson. Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB. His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect). Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR). But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level. If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.
At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising. Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth. Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop. The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player. The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).
In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence. Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned. Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.
This is an important season for Cincinnati. Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo. If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries). If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.
Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:
CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)
SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)
CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)
C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)
Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps. In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year. He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP). Cueto will turn 24 in February. Volquez is 26.
Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans. Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels. Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.
The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition. In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.
Free Agents:
Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP
Arbitration Eligible:
Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP
ETA 2010?:
Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP
The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions. The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior). Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.
In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads. Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.
Bronson Arroyo is the prototype. Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after). He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball. After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings. If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.
Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati. The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start. And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest! At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32. Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA. He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.
The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation. When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5. However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.
Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health. Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips. There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09. If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.
There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field. There are several interesting candidates for the outfield. Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early. He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.
His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year. Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559. Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.
The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring. If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson. Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB. His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect). Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR). But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level. If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.
At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising. Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth. Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop. The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player. The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).
In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence. Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned. Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.
This is an important season for Cincinnati. Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo. If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries). If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.
Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:
CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)
SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)
CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)
C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Fantastic Thoughts (September Call-Ups)
As we near September and roster expansion, here are a few players to keep on your watchlist. Not only is it necessary to be vigilant for players who could be sleepers in next season's draft, but productivity for unheralded prospects can help you down the stretch, especially in head-to-head leagues. You won't find any discussion of Jason Heyward, Justin Smoak, or Stephen Strasburg here. I assume you already know they are must-have prospects in keeper leagues and middle-round draft picks next spring. I more concerned here with guys your leaguemates are likely to be completely ignorant of and who represent late-round steals.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
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