See C.C.'s Crew

As a Cubs fan, I must say this through clenched teeth, but the Brewers may be the most soulful team in baseball, and their great team chemistry, bolstered by the additions of C. C. Sabathia and Ray Durham, combined with enormous talent, has made them into the most dangerous team in the National League the second half of the season.  Since acquiring the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, the Brew Crew has gone 9-4 (and they're leading the Cardinals in the third game of a four-game set as I write this).  Sabathia has been no mere confidence booster.  He is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 24 K in 24 innings coming into tonight, and has yet to allow a hit in five innings this evening.  However, his "confidence-boosting" may be even more critical.  Since he arrived in Milwaukee on July 6th, these are the numbers for some of the critical Brewers, not all of whom were running hot throughout the second half.  

Bill Hall (3B): .361, 9 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 1117 OPS

Ryan Braun (LF): .339, 9 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1087 OPS

Prince Fielder (1B): .327, 6 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1054 OPS

J. J. Hardy (SS): .321, 11 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 956 OPS  

Rickie Weeks (2B): .295, 14 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 881 OPS

I would like to draw special attention to Bill Hall, who lost his starting role to Russell Branyan in June, but is now back to playing every day and hit game-winning homers in each of the first two days of the critical Cardinals series, putting the Brewers alone in second place in the NL Central.  Hall, apparently a close friend of Sabathia, is looking like this year's version of Jacque Jones (whose huge second-half improvement bolstered the Cubs into last year's playoffs).  

This is also a good time to salute Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, and the Milwaukee Brewers organization, who now have six African-American players on their active roster.  Sadly, that's the most of any team in baseball.  Undoubtedly you will be reading in the coming months that the Brewers rely on "natural athletes," get by purely "on talent," won't be able to "handle the pressure," and are "disrespecting the game" by untucking their shirts when they shake hands after a win, the aphorisms which expose the not-so-subtle racism which is still very much a part of the baseball sportswriting and broadcasting establishment.  Don't be misled!  The Brewers "untucked" tradition is a testament to Mike Cameron's father, symbolic of a hard day's work and a job well done.  Cameron, Hall, and Ray Durham are grizzled veterans who have made long big league careers thanks in large part to their work ethic, diligence, studiousness, and willingness to do whatever necessary to help their team.  None of them was drafted higher than the 5th round.  Hall has play four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, CF) in the last three seasons, all of them demanding.  Cameron is a three-time gold-glover winner, esteemed around the league both for his personality and contributions on and off the field.  His Cam4Kids foundation, established in 2001 is dedicated to helping inner-city kids.  He is active is several other charity organizations as well.  Many though Durham's career was over after he hit .218 with the Giants in 2007, but he has brought is average back above .290 and his OBP above .380 in '08, right in line with his career numbers.  Despite spending his entire career as a starter, he immediately accepted his role as utility infielder and pinch hitter for the Brewers, embracing the opportunity to mentor Rickie Weeks and get long sought-after opportunity to go deep into the playoffs.  Since Durham arrived, Weeks is batting .400 with 6 runs, 2 extra-base hits, and 4 RBI, in four games.  

I've sung the praises of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for almost two years now, so you already know I consider them the most talented duo in all of baseball.  But there are now many more reasons to Beware the Brewers!

Gaping Holes

It's already been a blockbuster trade season, with Aces C. C. Sabathia and Rich Harden joining NL Central contenders Milwaukee and Chicago respectively, but the deadline is still three weeks away.  It isn't quite clear exactly who is on the market yet, but here are a couple teams that have postseason aspirations who have obvious needs.

Detroit Tigers - Starting Pitching

The Tigers have clawed their way back to .500 going into the All-Star break, clearly still in contention for both the Wild Card and the AL Central crowd, although they will have to play very, very well in the second half.  Their vaunted offense is starting to click and the return of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya may solve their bullpen woes, but Detroit will have to improve their rotation to have any chance of sniffing the postseason.  It looks as though Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman are done for the year.  Justin Verlander has turned his season around recently, winning his last three decisions and lowering his ERA in six consecutive starts.  Armando Galarraga (7-2, 3.27) has been a nice surprise, but, as a rookie, he shouldn't be counted on for quality innings down the stretch.  Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson can no longer be counted on as better than .500 pitchers or even innings eaters.  So, the Tigers need at least a #2 quality guy, and now it can't be C. C. Sabathia or Rich Harden.  Expect Detroit to pursue Joe Blanton, Aaron Cook, and possibly even Cliff Lee, whose value has never been higher and is signed through 2010.  The Indians could expect a Dan Haren-esque package in return.

New York Mets - Catcher, Left Field, Right Field, & Bullpen...Whew!!!

Obviously, it is unlikely that the Mets are going to pick up four impact players prior to the deadline, but if they are going to make a serious run at the playoffs, they need to compensate for some of the offense they have lost due to injuries (Moises Alou, Ryan Church, Luis Castillo) and lack of productivity (Brian Schneider, Carlos Delgado, Aaron Heilman).

The good news for the Mets is that despite the soap opera surrounding the unconscionable firing of Willie Randolph, they are only two games back of the equally inconsistent Phillies and Jose Reyes is in the midst of one of his prolonged hot streaks.  Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and Johan Santana all have reputations for second-half dominance, so the Mets may only need one or two spare parts.  However, I can't see them opening the World Series with Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis starting in the outfield.

Noteworthy

• Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez netted his 31st save of the season on Monday evening against the Nationals, putting him on pace for 65 saves, which would obliterate the current single-season record held by Bobby Thigpen (57).  K-Rod's career-high is 47, accrued in 2006.
• The firing of John Gibbons and the hiring of Cito Gaston bodes well for Blue Jays...and their top prospect, Adam Lind, who fell out of favor with Gibbons after only a brief stint at the big-league level in late April.  Gibbons decision to bench Lind (eventually leading to his demotion) in favor of the highly unproductive tri-toon of Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench, probably had something to do with his dismissal.  In 131 games at AAA, the 25-year-old Lind hit .333 with 19 HR and 96 RBI.
• Somehow the Cardinals survived interleague play and the Albert Pujols injury without falling out of contention.  Pujols will return on Thursday.  In the interim the Redbirds went 5-6 total and 4-2 against division-leading opponents Philadelphia and Boston.  Pujols return follows that of Jason Isringhausen, who hasn't allowed a run in four appearances, and precedes that of Adam Wainwright, Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter, Anthony Reyes, and possibly Matt Clement in the coming weeks.  With those kind of reinforcements joining a team which already possesses the fifth best record in baseball, if seems safe to say that St. Louis is "for real."
• The Pittsburgh Pirates, buried in what may be the toughest division in baseball this year, are quietly moving closer and closer to .500 and the end of what could have been a record-breaking stretch of losing seasons.  Pittsburgh is third in the NL in runs scored thanks in large part to the outfield of Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, and Jason Bay.  If the high-potential pitching trio of Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Tom Gorzelanny can find their stride in the second half (currently they are a dismal 12-17), Pittsburgh could be a very troublesome matchup their contending divisional rivals.
• Some noteworthy releases seemed destined to happen in the coming weeks.  Richie Sexson continues to frustrate the Mariners, but he could be a tempting addition for either of the New York teams, Cleveland, or Texas.  Cincinnati will likely part ways with Corey Patterson, now that Jay Bruce in entrenched in center field.  His speed and defense might be a good fit in a part-time role with the White Sox, Marlins, or even his former franchise, the Cubs, depending upon whether Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson can stay healthy.
• One can't help questioning how the Minnesota Twins will deal with the trade deadline.  A few weeks ago I predicted they might deal some of their pitching at a high price for offensive prospects, but after a six game winning streak they are only a game back of the White Sox.  Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are starting to look like the MVP-caliber combo they were in 2006 and one must assume that Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will only be better in the second half.  The Brendan Harris - Mike Lamb experiment on the left side of the infield needs to come to an end, so the Twins could be in the market for major-league quality talent.  Jack Wilson, Bill Hall, and Adrian Beltre could be good fits.  

Hippeaux endorses...(NL Infield)

I'm going to acknowledge my bias right here.  I will never endorse a caucasian player who plays for the perennially lily-white, holier-than-thou, confederate Braves or Astros.  So, sorry Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones, you're having great years, but I just can't bring myself to vote for you.  That said, here's me NL ballot.

1B - Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs (.294-93-30-84-897-6)

I explained why Berkman's not an option and Albert Pujols is likely to still be on the D.L. come July, so the OPS leaders among NL first-basemen since the 2007 break are both out of the picture.  The top five is rounded out by Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and - would you believe it? - Conor Jackson!?!  Fielder and Howard have both suffered much publicized slumps early in this year's campaign, but their numbers are still mighty respectable.  Adrian Gonzalez, on fire the past month, is also a legitimate choice.  Counting Berkman, Texeira, and Prince Albert, eight NL first basemen deserve a trip to Yankee Stadium more than the best choice in the American League (Kevin Youkilis).  I endorse Lee, not only out of loyalty to the Cubs, but because besides being a huge catalyst for Chicago's offensive explosion this season, he saves runs consistently on defense, making spectacular "hot-corner" dives and harnessing the erratic arms of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Mark DeRosa.

Runner-Up: Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies (.250-104-45-131-914-2)

2B - Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies (.317-96-29-97-997-9)

I'd love to make a case for Brandon Phillips, who remains among the most underrated players in baseball, but in truth, it's not even close.  Utley has been downright fantastic in the last eleven months, leading NL second-basemen in RBI, average, OBP, SLG, and OPS

(he leads by more than a hundred points).  He finishes a close second to Dan Uggla in HR and Runs Scored, and to Phillips in hits.  And, as the Baseball Tonight crew is constantly reminding us, he's made himself into quite an impressive fielder as well.

Runner-Up: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds (.283-88-26-86-817-28)

3B - David Wright - New York Mets (.319-107-26-108-956-24)

It would be nice to vote for Aramis Ramirez, but I just can't.  Wright is superior in every statistical category, at least Ramirez' equal on defense, and he can run the bases.  Wright is pretty much the only Met who has maintained his production and focus throughout the unbelievably distracting witch-hunt which has consumed their season.  If New York can turn things around in the wake of Willie Randolph (I highly doubt it), Wright still finds himself primed to make a run at the MVP.  He's in the top 25 in the NL in runs, hits, homers, RBI, and OPS.

Runner-Up: Aramis Ramirez (.302-84-21-95-909-1)

SS - Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies (.301-101-20-66-876-39)

This is one of the toughest decisions on the ballot.  You've got the reigning NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins; a guy who's hit thirty homers and stolen forty bases since the last All-Star Game, Hanley Ramirez; the leagues biggest stolen base threat and possibly most dynamic player, Jose Reyes; and a resurgent former AL MVP, Miguel Tejada.  For me, it really comes down to Ramirez and Rollins.  Ramirez has the slight edge statistically, but they may be largely due to Rollins DL stint in April.  For the most part they are nearly in a dead heat.  I give Rollins the advantage because he is definitely a better defender (2007 Gold Glove Winner) and he is a little more consistent (although when Ramirez is playing well, there really isn't any comparison offensively).

Runner-Up: Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins (.311-113-30-78-930-40)

C - Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers (.293-70-14-59-830-11)

Geovany Soto deserves a trip to New York almost as much a Martin.  But while Sweet Lou has the luxury of plugging Soto into the six-hole every day, and can rest easy when he takes an 0-fer or needs a day of rest, because he's got Fonso, D-Lee, A-Ram, and Fukudome, Joe Torre depends on Coltrane to be his offensive and defensive catalyst, especially while Rafael Furcal is on the DL, Matt Kemp and James Loney adjust to the league, and Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones appear washed up.  Int the last year, Martin has significant at-bats second, third, cleanup, fifth, and sixth in the lineup, he's won a Gold Glove at catcher, but, oh yes, he plays third base on his "off days" because Torre needs his bat.  He's stolen three times as many bases as any catcher in the NL and masterfully handled a difficult pitching staff.   Dodger fans need to focus these next few weeks on sending the face of their franchise to his second consecutive All-Star start.

Runner-Up: Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs (.303-37-14-50-926-0)

Hippeaux endorses...(AL)

It may not be as big of a story as Hillary falling in line behind Obama or Romney endorsing McCain, but I'd like to offer my advice on another upcoming ballot, that for the 2008 All-Star Game in New York. The Break is still a month away, but if you, like me, plan on voting about a hundred times again this year, and not exactly consistently, you'd best be getting started.

One thing to keep in mind: I believe that All-Stars should be based not only on the rather short-term performance of the first ten weeks of 2008, but also on the backstretch of the preceding season, which is why the potentially fluky seasons from the likes of Nate McLouth won't influence my vote...not this year. That said, here's my most common ballot.

American League

1B - Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox (.267 AVG-75 R-16 HR-78 RBI-808 OPS-5 SB)

His dugout tantrums haven't endeared him to Manny, which certainly doesn't earn him any extra credit, but you can't argue with Youk's on-field performance. Since the middle of 2007 he's played 117 games at first, eighteen at third, and two in right field and has made a grand total of three errors. Youkilis has been pretty strong at the plate as well, sporting an 808 OPS during that span.

Youk has climbed in front of Justin Morneau by a pretty significant margin in the early voting, so it seems likely that the fans will get this one right, but Youk's biggest advantage, besides playing for the Red Sox, is the surprisingly weak field of first-baggers in the AL. Since July 12 of last season, only one AL first baseman has more than 22 HR and/or more than 84 RBI, that's Carlos Pena, who racked up most of those totals at the end of last year and is currently on the DL. After Youkilis and Pena, the best options are guys like Jason Giambi and Casey Kotchman.

Runner-Up: Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays (.255-81-37-104-934-1)

2B - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers (.310-102-14-64-827-29)

As much as I'd like to see half-a-dozen Red Sox take the field at Yankee Stadium for the All-Star game, I can't endorse a player who's 8th in the AL in OPS among second-baseman in 2008 and 11th taking into account the second half of last season. Dustin Pedroia is a fine player, but he isn't the best the league has to offer, not by a long shot.

In about five hundred at-bats since the middle of last season, Kinsler has racked up 102 runs (1st), 14 homers (4th), and 29 stolen bases (2nd), to go with an 827 OPS (1st). Pedroia in those categories: 90 (2nd), 9 (7th), 12 (4th), and 742 (11th). Kinsler's is one of the most overlooked performances in the majors this past year, which is why he is 300,000 votes back of Pedroia and barely holding off Robinson Cano. This is an underdog who should be on every ballot you cast.

Runner-Up: Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles (.262-82-11-54-777-41)

3B - Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees (.313-93-34-102-1021-21)

Even despite the injury and the modest start (for him) this season, nobody comes close. A-Rod leads all AL players at the hot corner in runs, home runs, RBIs, walks, slugging, and OPS, finishes second in stolen bases and OBP (Chone Figgins) and third in average (Figgins and Mike Lowell).

Runner-Up: Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners (.253-76-26-84-763-13)

SS - Micheal Young - Texas Rangers (.326-86-11-76-827-11)

It goes without saying the Derek Jeter is going to take the field in front of his home crowd in mid-July, but Young has been better than him in almost every statistical category, both offensively and defensively, this year especially. Young just wrapped up a 23-game hitting streak during which he hit .339. During the same span Jeter batted .218. This will be Jeter's third consecutive All-Star start. I doubt that I'm the only one hoping it will be his last.

Runner-Up: Derek Jeter - New York Yankees (.291-78-10-56-758-12)

C - Dioner Navarro - Tampa Bay Rays (.310-48-11-56-820-2)

I know this is going to surprise a lot of you, but over the last eleven months Dioner Navarro ranks 2nd among AL Catchers in batting average, RBI, slugging, and OPS, and 3rd in home runs and on-base percentage. Only Jorge Posada is also in the top three in all those categories and his injury may prevent him from catching on his home turf in July. Navarro has been a big part of solidifying the surprising Rays both offensively and defensively, helping to groom and very productive young pitching staff. He deserves recognition, at least as the alternate.

Runner-Up: Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins (.301-61-5-50-798-2)

OF - Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers (.337-83-24-109-944-2), Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox (.310-81-24-91-943-1), Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers (.316-61-22-88-941-2)

It works out quite well for AL manager, Terry Francona, who has a natural left, center, and right fielder to start the game. Manny and Hamilton are nice sentimental picks who have the numbers to back it up and are currently first and second in the voting. Instead of voting in Ichiro or Vlad during somewhat down seasons merely based on reputation, let's go with the guys who's been hands-down the best outfielder in the AL over the past year. Despite his team's struggles so far this year, Magglio has continued to quietly tear the cover off the ball. Since last year's All-Star Game (when he started in left field), Magglio has more RBIs than any player in the AL. More than A-Rod. More than Big Papi. More than everybody in major league baseball except Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in the AL since the middle of last season he ranks first in batting average and third in OPS (A-Rod, Papi).

Runners-Up: Milton Bradley - Texas Rangers (.328-77-25-75-1063-7)
Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles (.311-85-24-90-912-17)
B. J. Upton - Tampa Bay Rays (.289-90-20-89-856-29)

DH - David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox (.307-97-34-108-1013-2)

Big Papi may not return from the DL in time for the All-Star festivities. Milton Bradley would be the perfect replacement, but unfortunately his name isn't on the ballot for the DH position. The runner up will probably be Jim Thome, who also has respectable numbers for the last eleven months.

Runner-Up: Jim Thome - Chicago White Sox (.248-77-34-85-885-1)

That's right, I've got three Rangers, as well as three Red Sox, on my 2008 AL All-Star ballot. The do, after all, lead all of baseball in runs scored. In addition, I expect Milton Bradley to be among the alternates (you hear me, Francona!). As of right now, all but one of my suggestion are ranked one or two (or among the top six outfielders) at their respective positions, so start punching those chads, stuffing those ballot boxes, and creating those fake email addresses. Let's get these guys to New York in July!

The Other Shoe...Part Deux

Don't Jump Off Cliff

After starting the season with a ridiculous stretch of seven starts in which he allowed only four earned runs, Cliff Lee has raised his ERA from 0.67 to 2.52 in his last five appearances, allowing nineteen earned runs in that span.  It would appear that the time has come (and possibly gone) to sell high.  I discourage you from doing so.  In fact, if an owner is shopping Cliff Lee, I would recommend bidding for him.  First of all, despite yielding a troublesome number of runs during this recent stretch, Lee has won four out of five.  He only got really roughed up (allowing more than four runs) in two starts and those were at Texas and in Cincinnati, two of the hardest places to pitch in all of baseball.  He managed to go at least five innings every time out and maintained a solid K/BB rate (26/10).  He has dealt with some additional extraneous factors as well: rain delays, especially tight zones (both teams were raising hell during the Texas game which finished with a score of 15-9), good offenses (Reds, Tigers, Rangers), and pitching on the road (4 out of 5).  By going five innings against the Tigers, despite a prolonged rain delay, and yielding only two runs, while fanning five, Lee proved his toughness.  Pick him up now as he heads into a stretch leading up to the All-Star Break where he faces the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants, teams which rank 12th, 13th, and 15th in the NL in runs scored.  Also, in 2005 and 2006, Lee's best seasons, he actually improved in the second half.  With ten wins already and Cleveland's offense bound to improve, I consider him the AL's best bet for 20+ victories.  Don't lose faith and take advantage of those owners that do.     

A month ago, it was still appropriate to spout platitudes like "It's still early," "It's a long season," and "Let's not be hasty," but with more than a third of the season in the books, the draft completed, and the All-Star Break less than a month away, it is time for GMs to give serious consideration to the State of the Franchise.

The good news is, at the start of the second week of June, only four franchises have no option but to start looking toward next year: the Washington Nationals, the Kansas City Royals, the Colorado Rockies, and the Seattle Mariners. Of those four, only the Mariners and Rockies entered the season with any serious hope of contention, although, one could argue, the Royals are also underachieving.

It is also good news that two out of every three franchises in MLB are within two games of .500, meaning the vast majority of fans still have plenty of reasons for optimism. Even some of the significantly under .500 teams - Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland, and San Diego - have enough talent and have played well enough for prolonged stretches to keep hope alive. The Padres, for example, looked buried only a couple weeks ago, but a 10-4 stretch which included a four game sweep of the Mets has them 6 1/2 games back of the scuffling Diamondbacks, with Jake Peavy due back at the end of the week. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene, two Friar's biggest offensive disappointments thus far, both historically perform better in the second half. It remains to be seen whether San Diego will be buying or selling over the next two months.

On the other hand, some teams would be best served to start looking ahead sooner rather than later, even though they still appear to be within striking distance of contention. Texas (32-33, 7.5 GB), San Francisco (28-35, 5.5 GB), Houston (32-32, 8 GB), and Baltimore (32-32, 7 GB) have all given their fans reason to be more optimistic than they might have been a couple months ago, but each has holes so gaping there is no hope of fixing them with a mid-season makeover. The Rangers and Astros are both at least three quality pitchers short of a respectable starting rotation, while San Francisco and Baltimore are both near the bottom of their respective leagues in scoring because they both are stuck using minor-league quality players at multiple positions. I'm not recommending that any of these teams resort to wholesale house-cleaning, which may be necessary in Colorado and Seattle, but they could probably sell off spare parts like Randy Winn, Ty Wigginton, Marlon Byrd, and Kevin Millar for more than they are really worth.

Last year the eventual final four - Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, and Colorado - all stood pat at the deadline. Of the playoff teams, only the Cubs (Jason Kendall) and Yankees (Roger Clemens) made significant deadline acquisitions. This year promises to be quite different. A rash of Red Sox injuries and the annual Yankee pitching ineffectiveness makes both teams likely buyers. The Mets and the Tigers, both franchises scuffling badly, but designed to win now, are likely to be prone to rash decisions. Ozzie Guillen recently demanded some new faces for his first-place White Sox. Atlanta's got real pitching problems with Smoltz done for the season. The Cubs don't have any glaring holes, but Jim Hendry is known for making midseason trades and fans around Wrigley are finally smelling a legitimate championship contender.

The biggest question may be how this season's bevy of surprisingly strong clubs - the Marlins, Rays, Cardinals, and Athletics - will respond to the stretch drive. The Rays, especially, despite the strength of their division, seem to have enough pieces to stay in contention to the end. They have a deep farm system, which makes them one of the teams best suited to make a blockbuster. A front-of-the-rotation arm or middle-of-the-order bat could be enough to put them over the top. On the other hand, many predicted that Billy Beane would spend the whole season cutting ties with his most valuable assets. Being in second-place might not change that approach, as it likely only raises the value of Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Rich Harden, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, and Eric Chavez. The Cardinals biggest question mark, starting pitching, may be buoyed by the return of Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement in the coming month or so. If all come back strong, they Cards, currently positioned to be the NL Wild Card, might be buying.

Here are the most sought after commodities in the next six weeks and the teams which will be seeking them, broken into Suckers (franchises whose desperation will lead them to mortgage the farm), Sellers (teams likely to drop out of the race and start making deals), and Sleepers (teams whose performance in the next three weeks could lead them to make a surprise deal at the deadline).

1. Starting Pitching

Suckers: Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Phillies, Braves
Sellers: Athletics (Joe Blanton, Rich Harden), Padres (Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf), Mariners (Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista), Rockies (Aaron Cook), Rangers (Kevin Millwood)
Sleepers: Cubs, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, Indians (C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee), Twins (Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez)

Like every year, the most common weakness is all the greatest necessity for postseason success, starting pitching. This year, however, there is more quality on the market than normal, especially if the Indians elect to deal Sabathia and/or Lee. Sabthia, Bedard, and Hardne are all top-tier Aces who could set a rotation up nicely for playoff dominance, but the price will be very steep and one has to question whether the Yankees can afford to give up Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano, whether the Mets would be willing to deal Fernando Martinez, and whether the Tigers have anything left to auction off for such a big-name player.

In the end, the best move might be made by a team that already has a frontline starter or two, but secures depth in the form of Joe Blanton, Greg Maddux, or Aaron Cook. Also, like the Athletics, look for the Twins to consider making moves even if they are still hovering close to contention. Nothing gets the big boys salivating like young high-potential starting pitching. Minnesota has lots of it in the majors and high minors: Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Anthony Swarzak. There isn't enough room in their rotation for all of these guys. Liriano is probably the only one that is untouchable.

2. Center Fielder

Suckers: Cubs, Braves, White Sox, Padres
Sellers: Royals (David DeJesus), Rockies (Willy Taveras), Athletics (Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Daivs), Red Sox (Coco Crisp), Reds (Corey Patterson, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel)
Sleepers: Dodgers (Juan Pierre), Yankees (Melky Cabrera)

At the beginning of the season it looked like Coco Crisp would be the hottest commodity on the market come June. A premier defensive outfielder with great speed, flashes of power, and switch-hitting ability would surely yield a pretty strong return from a team like Cubs or Padres with no true center-fielder. And, he still might. However, the injury to Big Papi, combined with a nagging injury to Jacoby Ellsbury, and the always tender J. D. Drew and Manny Ramirez, makes it very difficult for the Red Sox to justify dealing Crisp. What they need is bats and gloves (what with the depth of the pitching corps) and Crisp isn't likely to return anything much better than what he himself possesses. So, if appears that David DeJesus and Willy Taveras will the cream of the center-field crop. DeJesus matches best with the Cubs, who would prefer a left-handed hitter and a guy who could hit lower in the order. Taveras is a pure leadoff hitter, while DeJesus has a little bit of power (.444 SLG) to go along with his OBP skills (.362). What the Cubs really want is a guy who could bat fifth, allowing Fukudome to move up in the order, but such a player doesn't appear likely to become available, unless perhaps Hendry could engineer a Melky Cabrera for Rich Hill swap.

The White Sox would really like to move Swisher to a corner spot, first base, or DH, but they are filled up around the horn (Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, or Jim Thome), which could mean that Swisher becomes available...

3. Corner Outfielders

Suckers: Mets, Tigers, Blue Jays, Indians, Padres
Sellers: Reds (Adam Dunn, Ken Griffy Jr.), Pirates (Jason Bay, Xavier Nady), White Sox (Nick Swisher), Mariners (Raul Ibanez)
Sleepers: Rays, Rockies (Matt Holliday), Dodgers (Andre Ethier), Cardinals (Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker)

This is only position at which there might be some potent bats available. The Reds and Pirates seem likely to drop out of contention soon. Cincinnati has been shopping Dunn and Griffey for years, and Pittsburgh will need to make room for Andrew McCutcheon and Steven Pearce in the near future. The Cardinals will eventually hand center field to Colby Rasmus and move Rick Ankiel to right. One has to wonder whether the value for Ludwick or Schumaker will ever be higher. If the Rockies make Holliday available, many more big-market teams will get into the mix, but that seems unlikely. With that exception, if a team give up two quality prospects for any one of these guys, they're getting ripped off.

4. Relief Pitching

Suckers: Yankees, Tigers, Braves, Brewers, Indians
Sellers: Athletics (Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Alan Embree), Rockies (Brian Fuentes, Taylor Buchholz), Pirates (Damaso Marte, John Grabow), Giants (Tyler Walker, Jack Taschner, Brad Hennessey)
Sleepers: Mets (Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweis)

If the season were to end today, of the eight teams qualifying for the postseason, five would be in the top ten in MLB in bullpen ERA, and three in the top five. The other three - the Red Sox, Angels, and Cardinals - are likely to climb upward, especially the Red Sox and Angels which each feature a trio of reputable relievers at the back end of games. Papelbon, Okajim, and Delcarmen in Boston. K-Rod, Shield, and Speier in Anaheim. Cleveland and Detroit rank 28th and 29th in bullpen ERA, which is the biggest explanation for their disappointing seasons so far. The return of Borowski, Rodney, and Zumaya to those pens could spark a second-half resurgence.

Good teams are very unlikely to deal away any of their depth, but bad teams may sell off their entire relief corps. It's a good way to acquire value (i.e. Eric Gagne for Kason Gabbard and David Murphy last season).

Fantasy Notes

• Don't Pay For Steals: A couple of early round options, Ryan Braun and Russell Martin, have both gotten hot at the plate after slow starts, but they are still falling short in the category that provoked many roto owners to take them in the top two or three rounds.  Martin has stolen only four bases, putting him on pace for ten on the year, still great for a catcher, but half as many as he nabbed in 2007.  Braun has stolen only two, after grabbing fifteen in two-thirds of a season last year.  Many owners went into 2008 thinking he would have a legitimate shot at 30/30.  Granted, both of these players are massively valuable, regardless of whether they are stealing bases, but both were selected higher because of their high five-category expectations.
• The Worst Offense of the Modern Era: Many pundits, including myself, predicted that the San Francisco Giants lineup would be among the worst we could remember.  Let me be clear, they haven't been good (14th in the NL and 27th in MLB in runs scored), but they have had some very pleasant surprises.  First off, Aaron Rowand, who appeared to be grossly overpaid, moving from the cozy confines of Philadelphia to the wide-open spaces of PNC Park, where you need superhuman Barry Bonds-like strength to hit the ball out from gap to gap.  The home-runs have not exactly been easy to come by (he's got 8), but he is tied for 4th in the league (with teammate Ben Molina) in hitting, at .328.  He's driven in 36 runs and has a 924 OPS.  Molina's numbers (.328-6-38) are also very strong for a player expected to be a low-round option.  However, both of these guys were probably selected in your draft, or picked up shortly thereafter.  The Giant who is still available in many leagues is hitting .279 with 37 runs scored.  He's been getting on base at an impressive .363 clip, has decent power (12 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR), and has stolen eleven bases, that's good for eighth in the National League.  Those steals make him extremely valuable in just about any format.  The player: Fred Lewis.  Keeper league owners especially need to start paying attention.  Lewis is in his second season and is 27, moving into his baseball prime.  It seem likely that, if the Giants are wise (big IF), Lewis will stabilize left field and the leadoff spot, allowing them to focus their off-season free agent search on right-fielders and corner infielders.
• Triple Crown in Texas?: There's been much discussion of the season Josh Hamilton is having, as their should be.  What nobody's mentioning is that while he was first in the AL in average, homers, and RBI, he's second in the AL and on his own team in OPS.  He has had the great benefit of hitting in front of the Toymaker, Milton Bradley, who is batting .328 with a dozen dingers, 38 RBIs, and a league-leading 1050 OPS.  Bradley's talent is beyond dispute and now, with the opportunity to DH at least part of the time, the Rangers can protect his injury-prone body.  Hamilton and Bradley both represent the beauty of recovering from adversity.  Ron Washington has appeared to be a calming presence on both of them.  If the Rangers approach .500, they both could be legitimate MVP contenders.   

The Sweet Lou Bullpen Program

This week I'd like to highlight a relatively new strategical development in Major League Baseball.  Manager and general managers have realized that the "closer mentality" doesn't have to be limited to the 9th inning.  More and more teams have, especially competitive teams, have added a set-up man who is as dominant, if not more dominant, than their stopper.  

At one point, of course, every pitcher who put on a uniform considered himself a starter.  He only reconciled himself to a life of bullpen work once it had been proven that he was ineffective when overexposed.  And even then, he longed for the opportunity to get himself back in the rotation.  Then, along came Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, and Dennis Eckersley, and closing down games appeared to be a more unlikely, but still a potential path to baseball immortality, especially for players with only one or two quality pitches, instead of three or four.  Still, however, there was only room in the bullpen for one star.  The other guys, they were just mop-up men, the unfortunate, but necessary risks which must be taken when the starter fails to turn the ball over directly to the closer. 

In recent years, the logic of relievers is changing yet again.  Partially, of course, because pitch-count limitations and improved patience from hitters is making it more difficult for even the best starters to consistently get past six or seven innings.  It took some time, but managers and general managers have reacted by finding ways to "shorten the game" with two or three outstanding relievers.  Lou Pinella has been at the forefront of this development.  In 1990, he won a World Series largely on the backs of the "Nasty Boys," a closer-by-committee trio composed of Norm Charlton (50 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2 SV, 57 K), Rob Dibble (98 IP, 1.74 ERA, 11 SV, 136 K), and Randy Myers (87 IP, 2.08 ERA, 31 SV, 98 K).  Two lefties and one right-handed who could be employed in any late inning and in any order.  In 2001, when Seattle tied an MLB record for wins, Pinella adapted to more defined bullpen roles, but again depended on a combination of strong relievers, two left-handed and two right-handed: Norm Charlton (48 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1 SV, 48 K), Jeff Nelson (65 IP, 2.76 ERA, 4 SV, 88 K), Arthur Rhodes (68 IP, 1.72 ERA, 3 SV, 83 K), and Kaz Sasaki (67 IP, 3.24 ERA, 45 SV, 62 K).  

This year, Pinella again has the ingredients for his favorite recipe, with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre, and Michael Wuertz in the Cubs bullpen.  And, so far, the Cubs have the best record in baseball.  Most of the best managers - Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, etc. - have adopted Lou's program, and to great success.  LaRussa, arguably the inventor of the hydra-headed bullpen monster depended upon Eckersley and Rick Honeycutt to lead many of his late-'80s, early-'90s Athletics contenders.  Torre moved from Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland to Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, and Mariano Rivera as part of the '90s Yankee Dynasty.  The Angels World Series run in 2002 was dependent upon Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Ben Weber, and Brendan Donnelly.  

The success of the these teams has increased the notoriety of the dominant set-up man.  In 2001, Torre put Paul Quantrill, at the time posting a 2.13 ERA and 7 relief wins on the AL All-Star Team.  Bob Brenly followed suit the following season for the NL, adding Atlanta's Mike Remlinger (50 IP, 2.88, 68 K) among much criticism.  In all but one season since, at least one set-up man has been an All-Star.  Considering that arguably the best closer in history, Lee Smith, is still awaiting induction, it may be a very long time before middle relievers get any consideration for the Hall of Fame.  But, baseball theorist would do well to consider the particular challenges the set-up man faces.  Unlike the starter, for whom the quality start is six innings pitched, three earned runs, and the closer, who is successful so long as he holds onto a lead, the only successful outcome for a middle reliever is to come into the game (often with men on base) and get through the inning, or partial inning, without allowing any runs.  A run is a failure.  The heavy pressure of these situations may explain why managers like Pinella, Eric Wedge, and Jim Leyland have elected to put their most dominant pitchers - Rafael Perez, Joel Zumaya, Carlos Marmol, etc. - in middle relief roles, while handing the closer duties to guys like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones, whose stuff is not nearly as electric.  The closer usually has the advantage of entering the game with nobody on.

It is often observed that very few pitchers are successful in the closer's role over a considerable duration of time.  Only three pitchers have ever registered 30 saves ten times: Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, and Mariano Rivera.  However, even fewer middle reliever succeed over the long haul.  Let's talk about those All-Stars.  Paul Quantrill had a solid seven-year run, of which his All-Star year was arguably the highlight (11-2, 3.04, 83 IP).  During this stretch his was 32-29, with 18 SV and a 2.82 ERA.  However, in 2004 he turned in a sub-par year with Torre's Yankees and was out of baseball by 2006.  Mike Remlinger was a bullpen staple in Atlanta and Chicago for six seasons from '99 to '04, during which he failed to make 70 appearances only once and never had an ERA above 3.65.  His record was an impressive 32-17.  But, like Quantrill, one sub-par season was the end of him.  He retired after '06.  In 2003, Mike Scioscia rewarded Brendan Donnelly with a trip to the All-Star Game.  Donnelly did not make the majors until the age of 30, but was a key part of the Angels bullpen from 2002 to 2006, although his effectiveness continued to dwindle for his final three seasons in Anaheim before he was eventually traded to Boston.  He was effective in the early months of 2007, but had to undergo Tommy John and is now trying to make his way back to the majors in the Indians organization.  Set-up man, Justin Duchscherer, represented Oakland in 2005.  He had three solid seasons as a middle reliever before suffering from nagging injuries last year.  The A's recently converted him to a starter.  As you can see, it is rare for a middle reliever to be effective for an extended period of time.  Often, at least in the past, the best set-up men have not found the right role until late in their careers or, if they do find it early, teams have attempted to convert them either to closers or starters.  However, as managers and GMs become more aware of the necessity of the 7th and 8th inning All-Stars, they will be in less of a hurry to make such alterations, as can be witnessed by Joe Giradi's reluctance to give in to the pressure to make Joba Chamberlain a starter.  Here are half-a-dozen of the best middle-men who we can likely look forward to seeing in that role for several years to come.

6. Tom Gordon - Philadelphia Phillies

This is the twentieth season for forty-year-old Flash Gordon, his twelfth as a reliever.  In his illustrious career he's netted 137 wins, 157 saves, and 117 holds.  Nobody in major league history has accumulated that combination of stats.  And, disregarding the Hold, a stat which didn't come into existence until the 1980s, Gordon joins Eckersley, Lindy McDaniel, Hoyt Wilhelm, and John Smoltz as the only players with 130 wins and 150 saves.  Very impressive company!  And, at 40, Gordon has proved that he's still quite a dominant set-up man.  Since giving up fiver earned runs in a third of an inning in his first appearance, Gordon has recorded one save and nine holds, striking out eighteen hitters in twenty innings, and compiling a 2.21 ERA.  

5. Tony Pena - Arizona Diamondbacks

Pena's future is closely intertwined with that of Brandon Lyon, the D-Backs current closer.  Lyon will be a free agent at the end of this season, while Pena will be under their control for four more seasons.  Lyon will make more than $3,000,000 in 2008 and ask for more if he continues to be successful (12 SV, 1.64 ERA so far!).  Pena will make $405,000 this year and then face arbitration.  If Arizona resigns Lyon, Pena can stay in the role which he has dominated thus far in his career.  He's been in the top ten in the MLB in Holds each of the past two seasons.  Doug Melvin is confident bringing him in any situation.  Leaving aside one bad outing in a game that was already out of reaching, Pena has ten holds and a save this season, to go along with a 2.28 ERA.  

4. Carlos Marmol - Chicago Cubs

In Marmol, Lou Pinella has found the reincarnation of Rob Dibble.  Like Pena, Marmol could eventually find himself closing games, but Pinella prefers the freedom to use him in whichevery late-inning situation requires strikeouts, whether it means bringing him in with men on base or matching him up with the opposition's middle-of-the-order.  Since Chicago turned him into a reliever after a dozen unsuccessful starts in 2006, Marmol has a 1.90 ERA with 161 K in 113 innings.  This year he already has 16 holds and 3 saves, as well as a 1.54 ERA.  Marmol is arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball, regardless of role.  

3. Rafeal Perez - Cleveland Indians

Because he is left-handed and because they have Rafael Betancourt, Masa Kobayashi, Jensen Lewis, and Joe Borowski the Indians will be reluctant to turn him into a closer, so Perez could be among the league-leaders in holds for years and years to come.  Last season he posted a 1.78 ERA and 62 K in 60 innings.  He has held left-handers to a .142 career average (and righties only hit .222).  

2. Hideki Okajima - Boston Red Sox

Okajima shoots toward the top of the list partially because he is buried behind a young closer who is among the most dominant in history, Jonathan Papelbon.  The Red Sox are unlikely to trade him, both because Hideki has been ridiculously effective thus far, and because his presence brings comfort to his very expensive countryman, Dice-K.  Okajima, however, has himself been a key piece of Boston's success the past two seasons.  He went to the All-Star Game in 2007 and finished the year with a 2.22 ERA, 5 SV, 27 HLD, and 63 K in 69 innings.  This year he has again started off on fire.  He's allowed only two earned runs in 24 innings (0.75 ERA).  Boston has a club option for 2009, an option which is, strangely, less expensive than the contracts for his first two seasons.  They'll pick that up in a hurry, one would bet.  At that point, Okajima will be 34-years-old.  If he hasn't shown any signs to slowing down, he could demand one of the largest contracts ever awarded a middle reliever.

1. Scot Shields - Los Angeles Angels

Shields signed a three-year, $15 Million contract before this season which pretty much assured that the 32-year-old would never make his mark as a closer.  He will be among the first players to make a very lucrative career almost entirely out of pitching the eighth inning.  He has racked up 30 or more holds in each of the past three seasons and is easily on pace to do it again this year.  He's got a 2.97 career ERA and 128 holds.  Unless K-Rod goes down with a serious injury, Shields will never have an opportunity to close regularly in Anaheim, even though he undoubtedly has the stuff to do so.  The Angels invested in the hydra-headed bullpen strategy when they signed Shields and Justin Speier to long, lucrative deals, investing nearly $30 Million in their services for the next three seasons.   

Hall of Fame Questions

Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza have officially announced their retirements.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds have been forced into exile.  John Smoltz, Ken Griffey Jr., Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux have expiring contracts and have been dropping occasional hints.  The heroes of my early teens will soon become managers, pitching coaches, bad broadcasters, and semi-anonymous multi-millionaires, so it seems like a good time to discuss the inevitable questions of Hall of Fame credentials.  

First of all, in my opinion, it is a given that all of the players mentioned above are shoo-in first ballot players.  As should be Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro.  It may be "The Steroid Era," and some of these guys may have benefitted for performance-enhancing drugs, but most, if not all, of them would've been enshrined regardless and I don't think there is anything more shameful about this "era" than "The Segregation Era," "The Anti-Semetism Era," "The Spitball Era," and "The Collusion Era" (has it ended?).  Unlike Bud Selig and the MLB marketing department, I am not attracted to baseball history by any illusion of Disney World purity.  Any good historian knows, accuracy is almost always more entertaining than myth.  

I would like to consider the cases of a few borderline players who are entering the twilight of their careers.

Derek Jeter - SS - New York Yankees

I am a board-certified Jeter-hater, as most of you know, but I am not so prejudiced as to be incapable of looking at him rationally.  If he gets to 3,000 hits, which seems a foregone conclusion, he deserves to get into the Hall.  Jeter is great contact hitter, I have never disputed that.  He is a postseason God, there can be no doubt.  What makes me think that he's dramatically overrated is his putrid defense and the fact that the infamous captain doesn't seem to have all that much positive sway in a clubhouse which is constantly in turmoil.  I also think that the fawning of commentators over his potential run at 4,000 hits is ridiculous.  Jeter is 34.  He would need more than 7 seasons of 200+ hits to get to 4,000.  He has only gotten to 200 hits in six of his first twelve full seasons.  Jeter's power is dramatically declining (fewer homers in each of the last four seasons), as is his speed (only 16 for 24 in stolen bases the last two years).  He will, naturally, be less of an iron-man as he ages, as demonstrated by a trip to the D.L. already this season (the first since 2003).  Jeter's future is uncertain in many ways.  His massive contract will expire after 2010.  One would expect he will remain a Yankee, though at a significant discount, but his role will have to be determined.  I think even Yankee fans and management are near to the realization that he won't be a shortstop for much longer.  His range and fielding percentage have declined every season since 2005.  He was arguably the worst in the AL in 2007 (last in Range Factor, last in Zone Rating, 6th in Fielding Percentage).  However, he doesn't profile as the kind of hitter the Yankees expect for their corner outfield positions.  They just signed a pretty good player to be their third baseman for the next decade.  So, are the Yankees going to let excellent young players like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera become free agents so that they can free up space for a declining singles-hitting captain who may not be particularly good at second or in center.  We'll have to wait and see.

Chipper Jones - 3B - Atlanta Braves

The long-time face of the evil Braves isn't exactly my favorite player, but I have to agree with Rob Neyer's article arguing for Jones' inevitable enshrinement.  Like Jeter, Jones has led many of his teams to postseason appearances and performed well when there (13 HR and 870 OPS in 92 games).  Unlike Jeter, he hasn't exactly been indestructible.  He hasn't played upwards of 140 games since 2003.  However, when he's been in the lineup, there's been no sign of decline.  He doesn't steal bases anymore, but he hasn't since he turned 30 (he's 36 now), and he actually seems to be getting better as a hitter.  His OPS has improved every year since 2004.  So, it seems safe to say he will improve on numbers which are already pretty noteworthy.  Among third baseman, only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews have hit more home runs, and if he hits 25+ for four more years (not impossible), he might catch Matthews.  His career OPS is the best ever (for 3B).  He'll certainly reach 1500 RBI (moving him into the top 50 all-time) and has an outside shot at 3,000 hits.  Chipper won't get any assistance from his defense, but he shouldn't need it.  And, it goes without saying, this discussion isn't even necessary if he hits .400 this season.

Jason Varitek - C - Boston Red Sox

Varitek is a great example of the kind of player who might be overlooked in an era of offensive production.  However, he is the first Red Sox catcher to capture two World Championships since Pinch Thomas (1915 & 1916) and his newsworthy record of being behind the plate for four no-hitters might help him garner some voter attention.  Varitek's talent behind the plate has been underestimated because he's played most of his career in the shadow of Pudge Rodriguez.  His only Gold Glove came in 2005.  His offensive numbers are nothing to be ashamed of.  Among players who have spent 90% of their careers behind the plate, Varitek is 8th in OPS.  Of the seven players in front of him, only Chris Hoiles has no shot at the Hall (4 are already in, Rodriguez is a shoo-in, and, speaking of catchers with handfuls of rings, Jorge Posada is another borderline selection).  If he were eligible tomorrow, I don't think I'd vote for him, but that doesn't mean a couple more BoSox championships wouldn't persuade me otherwise.

Mike Mussina - SP - New York Yankees

Moose hasn't been very good for the last few years, I know.  He's never won 20 games in a season or a Cy Young and a run at 300 wins isn't looking likely.  But he's got more strikeouts than Tom Glavine and only two players (Mickey Lolich & Frank Tanana) with as many strikeouts as the Moose are not in the Hall (or headed there).  He's got more wins than Curt Schilling and a better winning percentage than Schilling, Glavine, Smoltz, and Greg Maddux (!), all players from the same era who played for good teams and seem certainly headed for Cooperstown.  However, only one player (Red Ruffing) with an ERA as high as Mussina on his career (3.71) is in the Hall.  Mussina could be in the position to change the standards.  Baseball pundits seem confident that the 300 win plateau is going to be unrealistic for this generation's pitchers.  The 3.50 career ERA might be a similarly high expectation, considering the AL average in the last decade has been well above 4.50.  I'd say no to Mussina, but I bet a significant number of baseball writers will feel otherwise.

Trevor Hoffman - RP - San Diego Padres

I know, the game's all-time leader in saves should be a sure thing, right?  Well, it didn't work out that way for Lee Smith and he had more wins, more strikeouts, more innings pitched, and more All-Star appearances than Hoffman, with a similarly good career ERA (3.03 compared to 2.76) and several downright dominating seasons.  Like Smith, Hoffman never won a World Series and he only got there once.  More importantly, when Smith became eligible in 2002, he was still the reigning saves king, which would've seemed to help his case.  By the time Hoffman's name gets on the ballot, he probably will have been surpassed by Mariano Rivera, whose credentials are, frankly, much, much more impressive.  He already leads Hoffman in wins, ERA, innings, and All-Star appearances, not to mention that ridiculous postseason line: 8-1, 34 SV, 0.77 ERA, 91 K, 16 BB, 117 IP.  There are only four full-time relievers in the Hall, none of them with upwards of 400 saves.  They will be setting a new precedent when they enshrine a career closer.  Something tells me that Mo Rivera is destined to be that precedent (though Hoffman may follow him).   

The New Nightmare

This weekend two of the best sluggers in baseball will be in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster.  It's a 3-4 combo featuring a lanky, defensively-challenged, somewhat surly right-handed left-fielder and an intimidatingly large, but ever-smiling, defensively-challenged left-handed first baseman.  It might be one of the best hitting pairs in baseball history.  I know, you may be asking yourself, "Don't these guys play in Boston, like, every weekend?"

Well, no, because I'm talking about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since Braun arrived in the majors just less than a year ago, he and Fielder have combined for 84 HR and 232 RBI, significantly more than Manny and Big Papi over the same span (55 HR, 196 RBI).  More than any 3-4 combo in baseball, for that matter, combos like A-Rod/Abreu (58 HR, 227 RBI), Berkman/El Cabayo (74 HR, 225 RBI), and D-Lee/Ramirez (50 HR, 176 RBI).  Moreover, while each of those pairs features two mature players, every one of them over the age of 30, Fielder and Braun have a combined age of 48 years, 6 months, and 3 days.

In other words, together they are younger than recently retired Julio Franco.  

Like Manny and Papi, they have a very strong supporting cast, especially on offense, most of whom are also quite young.  What the Brew Crew doesn't have, is pitching depth, which is why they are likely to get pummeled this weekend by the superior Red Sox team, who will send Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield to the mound to face Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva.  Despite a dramatically overhauled mercenary bullpen (Gagne, Riske, Torres, and Mota all signed this past offseason), the Brewers are among the league's worst in blown saves and bullpen ERA (8 BS, 4.37 ERA).  Strangely, despite the continued dominance of Papelbon (2.41, 11 SV) and Okajima (0.93, 9 HLD, 1 SV), Boston's relief corps have been pretty putrid as well (8 BS, 4.56 ERA).  If starting pitching fails to contain these two potent offenses, we could see some real slugfests.  

Bold Predictions: Employment Edition

• Two veteran closers lost their jobs yesterday, Jason Isringhausen of the Cardinals and Eric Gagne of the Brewers.  Both manager, Tony LaRussa and Ned Yost (the teams were playing each other, ironically), promised a closer-by-committee situation.  But, we should take heed of who they turned to for their first opportunities.  On Saturday afternoon LaRussa handed the ball to Ryan Franklin in the 9th.  Franklin has a 1.89 ERA with 12 holds, so it's hard for me to imagine a situation in which he would not be a good choice.  It took him 14 pitches to dispense with the top of the Brewers order.  Today, Ned Yost turned the ball over to Salomon Torres.  Torres, a former closer for the Pirates, has gone 3-0 with a save, two holds, and a 2.74 ERA since arriving in Milwaukee.  He has a history of success and durability, pitching 90+ innings for Pittsburgh three seasons in a row from '04-'06 with an ERA below 3.00, 15 saves, and 58 holds.  While it is possible that LaRussa and Yost might opt for Russ Springer or Brian Shouse when they see an all left-handed lineup, those situations will be rare.  Fantasy owners should set their sights on Franklin and Torres.
• For those playing in leagues that require two or more catchers, might I suggest taking a look at Miguel Olivo of the Royals. Olivo has made 15 starts already this season, either in favor of John Buck or as the DH.  He's got 4 HR and 10 RBI. Only seven backstops can match those numbers. Granted, it's a small sample, but this is a tough position to fill and sometimes you've got to take some risks. Olivo does have a history of decent power, hitting 16 HR in each of the last two seasons. So if you're currently carrying Buck, Josh Bard, Brian Schneider, or Chris Coste, you'd probably be better served by picking up Olivo.
• The Tigers cut ties with Jacque Jones this week as part of their ongoing efforts to shake up the offense.  Detroit is second in the AL in scoring, so one must question whether they should really be punishing position players.  I might have considered sending a message through Nate Robertson (1-4, 6.64).  There are two points to be made here.  First, Jacque Jones is going to land elsewhere, probably as a starter.  Last year, after a slow start, Jones hit .332 with 46 RBI after the All-Star break.  He proved he could play respectably well at any outfield position, so there are plenty of potential suitors, including the Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Twins.  He could be a very productive fourth or fifth outfielder in a deep fantasy league.  Additionally, Jones' release has resulted in more playing time for Marcus Thames and Matt Joyce, while Sheffield gets more playing time in left field.  However, Matt Joyce isn't going to be the Tiger's long-term solution.  Obviously, there has been a frenzy of media speculation about Barry Bonds.  It would be a logical match, undoubtedly, and one must wonder whether Detroit could do any better (certainly not for the price).  However, Tigers management has already angered some of their fellow Robber Barons by handing out several monster contracts in the last couple seasons, will they risk the additional spite from the commissioner's office by breaking the collusion agreement regarding Bonds?  It seems doubtful.  On the other hand, they ransacked their farm system in order to get Cabrera and Willis, so they probably don't have the right set of pieces for acquiring an left-handed impact guy like Andre Ethier (unless they deal Inge and eat much of his contract).  They may be forced to consider Bonds or Kenny Lofton (who might actually be the better fit).
• One has to wonder how much longer John Gibbons will be managing the Toronto Blue Jays.  He has quite possibly the best pitching staff in all of baseball, but hasn't been able to climb out of the AL East cellar.  Sure, you can't blame Gibbons for injuries to Vernon Wells, David Eckstein, Jeremy Accardo, and John McDonald.  However, what you can blame Gibbons for is being too patient with his starting pitchers and not patient enough with his hitters.  Twice in the series with Cleveland he sent an Ace back out to the mound after he had thrown well over a hundred pitches (Halladay in the 7th on Friday, Burnett in the 8th today), only to be forced to remove him after he'd allowed several baserunners.  What I don't understand, especially, is that we're talking about a team that has a solid bullpen and starters who have already worked deep into the game.  If he was trying to push his horses to give him quality starts, it might be one thing, but these guys were clearly exhausted, having already done their jobs!  Hand the ball to Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, and B. J. Ryan, all of whom have pitched excellently so far and had plenty of rest, because the Toronto rotation consistently pitches deep into games, even when Gibbons isn't forcing it on them.  They also has Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp (and Accardo, until recently) out there who haven't started the season very strong, but have histories of success.  There is plenty of depth, but Gibbons only seems to trust his Aces.  I don't think anybody's mismanaged a quality pitching staff this badly since Grady Little got booted out of Boston.  Additionally, Gibbons' has also had a much-publicized confrontation with Frank Thomas, which resulted in the Big Hurt heading to Oakland where he has a .391 OBP and 10 RBI in 17 games.  The only guys with 10 RBI for Toronto during that span is, you guessed it, Vernon Wells, who won't be taking the field again for two months.  Without Thomas or Wells, Alex Rios will have to move to center field, and the corner outfield spots and DH with presumably be shared by some combination of Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Matt Stairs.  Stairs has played quite well, but Stewart, Wilkerson, and Mench have combined for 7 runs, 0 HR, and 11 RBI in close to 200 ABs so far.  Meanwhile, Adam Lind, a bonafide top prospect toils at AAA, where he is hitting .329 with a 903 OPS.  But, since he didn't produce in the first three games after they released Thomas, Gibbons benched him and eventually he had to be sent back so he could get regular playing time.  The Jays had very high expectation going into the season and they still aren't that far back in the crowed AL East.  Any team with this much pitching can get hot and make a run, as the Padres prove almost every year, but I think Toronto is going to need to spur it by firing their hot-headed manager and bringing in a fresh perspective.  Hey, I think Jack McKeon is available.   

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.

The Shrinking Strike Zone

In 2001 Bud Selig and Sandy Alderson encouraged MLB umpires to "hunt for strikes," enforcing the "letters to knees" strike zone as it is defined by baseball's century-old rulebook.  The Commissioner's office argued that the modest strike zone was partially responsible for longer game times, depleted pitching staffs, and the well-documented offensive explosion.  In the seasons which followed, they implemented the QuesTec pitch-tracking system, amidst considerable upheaval from the umpire's  and player's unions.  Some players, like Chipper Jones, argued that QuesTec actually helped hitters, discouraging umpires from employing the expanding "Greg Maddux" strike zone, since these subtle changes would be caught by the machine, and complained that the system was not used consistently in every game and every park, so certain teams (namely, the Mets) were gaining an unfair offensive advantage.  Umpire representatives argued that the technology was inconsistent, forced them into uncomfortable situations with players, and was prompted not by a genuine desire to improve the efficiency of the game, but because Selig was doing a favor for one of his corporate cronies who owned the QuesTec manufacturer.  It has been effectively proven, by Rob Neyer and others, that the QuesTec system and the "hunt for strikes" in general did very little to effect scoring.  However, game times and pitch counts did go down, partially because there was a dramatic decrease in walks.  Here is a chart of the average walks per major league franchise between 1998 and 2007:

1998: 548

1999: 596

2000: 608

2001: 527

2002: 542

2003: 530

2004: 541

2005: 507

2006: 528

2007: 536

This significant drop-off, more than 100 BB per team from 2000 to 2005, came despite the fact that teams are preaching patience more than ever, in the wake of "Moneyball," and players like Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Adam Dunn, and Jack Cust made their livings largely by moseying slowly to first.  Hitters adjusted to the new zone, still took their walks when appropriate, but were forced to swing at chest-high pitches, which no doubt quickened the pace of games and relieved the pressure on pitchers, even if it didn't cost the league any run production.  There is evidence to suggest that the trend is heading back in the wrong direction, since the low-point in base-on-balls in 2005.  The modest increases the past two seasons may foreshadow a significant upswing on the horizon.  I, personally, feel like pitchers have been getting squeezed more often in games which I've been watching and the early numbers this season suggest that it isn't merely coincidence.  In April of 2007, the average major league franchise took 87 free passes.  This April that number jumped to 97.  That's a total of 300 walks more across the league than a year ago (This number is somewhat exaggerated by the fact that there were more games in March this season).  Nonetheless, taking into account March and the first few days of May, the current pace would result in an MLB average for the season of around 563, more than 20 more walks per team than any season since 2000.  

I, personally, think Selig or Alderson would do well to issue a reminder to the umpires, in order to protect the fragile arms of major league pitchers.   

April Showers bring NEW Bold Predictions

LaRussa's Mad Science:

I should really know better by now. I lived in St. Louis for six years, during which Tony LaRussa took the Cardinals to the playoffs four times, including an 105 win season and an NL Championship in 2004, when nobody (even St. Louis fans) expected the Cards would finish higher than 3rd place in the NL Central. Last year the Cardinals stayed in contention until the final two weeks of the season, even though nobody other than Pujols drove in more than 70 runs or scored more than 58. By comparison, the two teams they were chasing, the Cubs and Brewers, each had at least four players who eclipsed those numbers in both categories. What's more perplexing? St. Louis also had by far the worst team ERA of any of the three franchises. Yet somehow the Cardinals finished only seven games back, even after they lost 14 of 16 in mid-September.

Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan are the only managerial team in baseball (sorry Bobby Cox) with seemingly magical abilities. Let me just list a few players that they've transformed in the last decade:

Chris Carpenter - SP - Had a .500 record, an ERA over 4.50, and had just missed a full season before arriving in St. Louis. Since then he has gone 51-18 and won a Cy Young.

Woody Williams - SP - He went 45-22 with the Cardinals, 87-94 everywhere else.

Matt Morris - SP - Hasn't had a winning record or an ERA under 4.90 since leaving St. Louis, where he once posted five straight winning seasons, averaging 16 wins a year during that span.

Sure they've had some tough cases as well (Anthony Reyes, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, etc.), but in general they patch together pitching staffs and lineups from players that other teams have castaway (besides Carpenter and Williams, they've gotten significant contributions in recent years from Joel Pineiro, Jeff Weaver, Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, and Todd Wellemeyer).

If St. Louis remains in contention all year, this will be, undoubtedly, their most impressive performance yet. They are already making me regret picking them to finish last in the division. Right now, LaRussa has a quartet of outfielders batting better than .311. Their names? No, not Walker, Edmonds, Sanders, and Encarnacion. Not even Ankiel. Their names are Schumaker, Ludwick, Duncan, and Barton. Add in Ankiel, Glaus, and Prince Albert and you've got a lineup that is 5th in the NL in scoring. It's early and I highly doubt these guys can continue this pace, but St. Louis had Colby Rasmus waiting at AAA, so if even one or two of these guys proves to be for real, they could have a very respectable outfield by the end of the season.

More surprisingly, perhaps, the Cardinals are 4th in the NL in ERA, despite having a patchwork staff which includes seven pitchers who have made multiple appearances as both relievers and starters during the last two seasons. Versatility may be nice from one or two guys, but it generally doesn't suggest an impressive corps, since going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation usually means a player hasn't been particularly good at either. Yet, somehow, LaRussa and Duncan, have quietly made Ryan Franklin, who pitched 190+ innings as a starter for three season sin Seattle, into one of the league's best set-up men (32 Holds and an ERA under 3.00 in 90 innings over the last two seasons). They've converted Braden Looper, who hadn't made a start in eight full major league seasons, into a solid inning-eater at the backend of the rotation (15-13 with 190 IP in 34 starts). And they're looking to Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Anthony Reyes to make similar transformations (so far the trio is 4-1 with 3 QS, 1 SV, 2 HLD, and an ERA around 3.50).

I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will outlast the surgin, power-packed Cubs or the young, talented Brewers, but if St. Louis finishes over .500 in third place with this group of players, LaRussa will deserve another Manager of the Year award.

The Baby Backs:

Matthew Berry, ESPN's Talented Mr. Roto, whose self-deprecating fantasy advice I usually enjoy and often agree with, recently predicted that Justin Upton, despite his hot start will only finish with about 25 HR and a .275 average (he's currently hitting .368 with 5 HR). While I understand his justification. The league will adjust and the 20-year-old Upton will suffer some slumps as the season progresses, I think you need to moderate this assumption with a player of Upton's caliber. Remember, Upton struggled under prolonged exposure to the league at the end of last season, but made successful adjustments in the postseason (1097 OPS) which he's carried over into this year. The Diamondbacks made a wise decision in sticking with him last year and they're reaping the benefits now. The proper comparison for Upton is not to guys like Jeff Francoeur, Rick Ankiel, and Troy Tulowitski, who are susceptible to sophomore slumps, but to Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, and Miguel Cabrera, who were not. Cabrera hit 33 HR with 112 RBI in his first full year. In Arizona's lineup, where Upton is currently batting 6th and is not expected to be the dominant force, such numbers are not unreasonable. Remember, one of the things (there are many) which separates Upton from his teammate, Mark Reynolds, and guys like Ankiel and Francoeur, is his control of the strike zone. Don't get me wrong, he's going to strikeout, but it isn't going to be consistently on pitches way out of the zone. No matter how NL hurlers approach him, they will have to throw him strikes.

Reynolds, also off to a very hot start, is something of a different story. He's looking great right now, but last year his K to BB ratio was almost 4:1. At one point, he struck out in ten consecutive at-bats. He's averaging more than one strikeout a game even during his hot streak. Reynolds is going to go cold much more often than Upton and his position is not nearly as secure since the D-Backs will have Chad Tracy coming back soon. Sure, there are plenty of studs like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn to strike out as much as Reynold does, but even when they are slumping, as Dunn has been recently, they get on base via the walk. Reynold hasn't shown his ability to do that yet and until he does, he's risky business.

Finally, I'll conclude my discussion of the Baby Backs with Chris Young. Superficially, one would say he looks pretty consistent. Last year he hit .237 with 32 HR, 27 SB, 147 K. This year he is on pace for .227 with 40 HR , 24 SB, and 168 K. Great numbers, but the average and strikeouts aren't what you'd look for from a leadoff man. There is a difference though, Young has raised his OBP to a very respectable .348, more than fifty points higher than last season, by drawing more walks. Young is probably never going to hit .300, but a .350 OBP with 40/40 potential and top-tier centerfield defense is damn admirable.

A Tribute to Doc

It's may be hard to believe that a former Cy Young winner, who has averaged 15.5 wins a season for the past six seasons could be the most underrated player in baseball, but I believe that is the case. When pundits and prognosticators discuss the best starting pitchers they inevitable, and appropriately, point to Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, C. C. Sabathia, and Josh Beckett. Here on the west coast, the name John Lackey might be thrown into the mix. In the midwest, you might get arguments for Chris Carpenter, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Zambrano. But, the name you never hear is Roy "Doc" Halladay, Toronto's soft-speaking, soft-throwing Ace, who has quietly accumulated a record of 112-56. That's right, exactly a 2-1 ratio of wins to losses. Among active pitchers with 100 or more decision, only Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez post better winning percentages. More impressively, however, among ALL pitchers in baseball history, Roy Halladay ranks 13th, ahead of legends like Sandy Koufax, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson. And, as he is only an inning away from shutting out the Rangers as I'm writing this, it appears that number will be edging up.

At age 31, this is Doc's 10th major league season. He is a pitcher who relies on control, movement, an impenetrable calm on the mound, and an absurd ability to roll a ground ball almost every time the situation dictates. Much like Greg Maddux, he actually urges the opposition to put the ball in play by working quickly and throwing strikes. One of the reasons he goes unnoticed is that he hasn't struck out more than 140 hitters since his Cy Young season in 2003. It is also one of the reasons he has more complete games than any other pitcher in baseball over that span, and has pitched 220+ innings in four of the last six season. His ambivalence towards velocity suggests an ability to pitch effectively for at least another decade, quite possible deep into his forties (again, like Maddux). That would give him an outside shot at 300 wins and a ticket to the hall of fame.

Halladay, quietly, as always, signed a $40 Million extension in 2006 (more than a season before his contract expired) which keeps him in Toronto through 2010. Doc's presence is a big reason why Toronto had one of the best rotations in baseball last season and is likely to be even better in 2008, as Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan mature (and, hopefully, A. J. Burnett stays healthy). If Toronto does make a run at the postseason this year, it will be because the backend of the Blue Jay rotation takes cues from the Doctor.

When do you worry?

Although the optimism regarding the Tigers may have been a bit extreme, considering their obvious bullpen concerns and additional question marks in the rotation, nobody could have predicted they would start the season 1-8 and be the lowest scoring team in the American League. Detroit was repeatedly booed during the final games of their winless homestand to open the season, which is, in my opinion, inexcusable. The fans of the Tigers and Cubs (who were also booed on occasion at Wrigley Field last season) would do well to remember the decades of mediocrity which preceded a renewed dedication to winning on the part of their franchises. Such vulgar fairweather displays will make Detroit's return to the postseason this October much less sweet. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN has a good piece about teams which have recovered from similar (or worse) situations that Detroit, many of them within the last few years.

This week, however, I'm taking a look at some of the individuals who are getting booed or, at least, having April slumps which are getting noticed.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

Big Papi's average has dropped to .077 and he has only three hits and one homer in his first 40 at-bats. There has been a lot of speculation about the lingering effect of his off-season knee surgery. This is definitely a good opportunity to preach patience. April has generally been a problem month for Papi. In 2003, Ortiz hit only .212 with a single dinger. Along with several of the Red Sox, he may be suffering from prolonged jet lag after the opening road trip that would've made Jule Verne proud. Big Papi, like Albert Pujols, is a professional hitter who is more-or-less slump-proof. He will start punishing pitchers shortly.

Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

One thing I'm sure of, Prince Fielder's April power outage is not, as widely hypothesized, a result of his decision this offseason to become a vegetarian. If you see Fielder with sallow cheeks, twiggish forearms, and no gut, you can begin blaming his diet, but I watched him drive a ball into the gap against the Mets this evening and nothing about him looked malnourished. This is simply the case of a young, supremely-talented hitter coming off a breakout MVP-caliber campaign and trying to do too much in the early going, much as Ryan Howard did last year. You, remember, right? Ryan Howard hit only three homers in April last year. Oh, you don't? That might be because he had 44 HR and 123 RBI during the next five months. Maybe he should give Prince a call, tell him what he started eating for dinner.

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' sparkplug is batting .156 and has already struck out ten times in the young season.  He struck out less than 90 times in more than 600 plate appearances in 2007.  I would love to say that this is not cause for concern, but Martin's heavy workload for last season might be catching up to him.  Very few catchers have been able to play 145 games a season and maintain their offensive performance.  Jason Kendall did for a few years, but suffered a dramatic drop-off in both power and speed before he had even turned 30.  Joe Mauer struggled with injuries a year after posting his first 140-game campaign.  Even that mighty I-Rod has suffered four years of declining SLG%.  Martin has on his side that he is only 25, is a tremendous athlete, and didn't start catching full-time until 2004, so he doesn't have an entire lifetime of wear-and-tear on those knees.  Hopefully, he will respect Joe Torre's desire to rest him more consistently.

Andruw Jones - CF - Los Angeles Dodgers

What was supposed to be a strength for L.A., has turned out to be a major weakness in the early going.  Outfielders Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Juan Pierre have combined for a single home run, six runs, and twelve RBIs.  None of them have an average above .278 or an OPS above 750.  Just for comparison: right down the road in Anaheim, the Angels outfield foursome has combined for 11 HR, 25 run, and 26 RBIs.  None of them has a OPS below 800.  

Andruw has been the biggest disappointment.  Coming off the worst year of his career, he has begun 2008 batting .114 with one extra-base hit and 1 RBI.  He looks lost at the plate, going 1-for-17 with 8 Ks in the last five games.  For me it is hard to believe that a player of Andruw's caliber could be declining at age 30, but unless he turns this season around pronto, that's what we will have to conclude.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians

C. C. has started the season going 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in three starts.  I hate to say it, but this is what the Indians get for making him throw 255 inning last season.  Pitchers, even pitchers as good as Sabathia, break down after throwing that much.  The good news for the Indians is that the presence of Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller means they can give Sabathia a bit of an in-season vacation and still be very competitive.  They will be best served by getting him on the D.L. shortly, if things don't improve dramatically in his next couple starts, and bringing him back renewed and refreshed a month or so down the line.

Bold Predictions (American League)

Detroit has fallen to 0-5, being man-handled by the Royals and White Sox. The Yankees are in danger of being swept by their arch-rival...the Tampa Bay Rays. Are these flukes or omens? Here's my preview of the American League.

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

I've been forecasting the end of the Yankees run of postseason appearances for several years, never to any avail, obviously, but I look at New York and again see a team that, despite massive offensive potential, failed to address the issues that very nearly kept them out of the playoffs in 2007. They've got a shaky rotation and a shakier bullpen. Yankee fans will cite the arrival of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain as indicators of inevitable improvements in the pitching staff, but beware this heavy reliances on very young, very inexperienced arms. While Joba was truly dominant late last season and probably will be again as Mo Rivera's set-up man, the Yankees pitching was actually worse in the second half of 2007 (during the vaunted arrival of the Baby Yanks) than it was before the All-Star Break. Unlike the Red Sox and Blue Jays, the Yankees do not have strong candidates to step into the rotation in case of injuries or ineffectiveness, nor do they have a bevy of strong bullpen arms. Once again, all three of these teams will be very difficult opponents (as will the Rays, with their renovated rotation), but I surmise that pitching will make the difference, and Toronto and Boston hold the advantage in that department.

Division MVP: David Ortiz (Red Sox)
Division Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Blue Jays)
Division Rookie of the Year: Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
Sleepers: A. J. Burnett, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin McGowan, Cliff Floyd, Jon Lester, Coco Crisp

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians (Wild Card)
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

There are no patsies in the AL Central. Each of these teams is full of talent, with lots of potential on both sides of the baseball. The Royal and Twins will probably suffer some rough stretches with their young rotations (especially since they have to face incredibly deep lineups), but pitchers like Zach Greinke, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Bannister aren't far away from being dependable, quality starters.

Detroit's shaky relief corps could keep them from living up to expectations (some analysts are already talking about scoring records). If Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya cannot return and be at full strength by June and Zach Miner and Denny Bautista don't mature into competent middle-inning guys, the Tigers will need to mortgage more of their deep farm system to patch up the 'pen. The Indians team may not be as sexy, since they don't have big-ticket free agents like Sheffield, Cabrera, and Willis, but they do have a deeper pitching staff and a lineup that is remarkable in its own right.

Chicago could be the darkhorse in this race. Nearly every member of the White Sox underachieved in 2007, so even without the additions of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Octavio Dotel, and Scott Linebrink the Sox would be good bets to be among the most improved teams in the league. Chicago is going to hit and they have an impressive collection of power arms in the bullpen. The starting rotation will end up dictating whether or not they are serious contenders. With the exception of Mark Buehrle, it is a staff full of underachievers. Veterans like Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras who have not lived up to perennial Ace status and top prospects like Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks who are short on options and have yet to produce in the big leagues. Even Buehrle, only 29, who posted five consecutive seasons of at least 14 wins and 220 innings to go with an ERA well under 4.00 from '01 to '05 has shown signs of premature decline the last two seasons (22-22, 4.31 ERA). In 2005 the White Sox came out of nowhere to be the best team in baseball. The division is much better now, so I don't think they can do the same thing again, but they aren't going to get rolled over by good teams the way they did last season (18-33 against playoff-bound teams).

Division MVP: Gary Sheffield (Tigers)
Division Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Tigers)
Division Rookie of the Year: Billy Butler (Royals)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Cliff Lee (Indians)
Sleepers: Javier Vazquez, Franklin Gutierrez, Gil Meche, Alexei Ramirez, Jensen Lewis

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

This is probably the easiest division to forecast. Seattle made it more interesting when they went out and got Erik Bedard. They now possess a formidable pitching staff to go with a respectable lineup. However, L.A. (of Anaheim) still has to be the clear favorite. Even with Kelvim Escobar out until at least mid-season and John Lackey missing a few starts to begin the year, the Angels have plenty of pitching. Jered Weaver is on the cusp of excellency and before last season Ervin Santana was considered equally promising. The addition of Torii Hunter and improvements from Gary Matthews, Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Mike Napoli with easily give the Angels the best lineup in their division. Plus, the Angels always strong farm system can buoy the major-league club with promising rookies like Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood, and Hank Conger as the season unfolds.

Division MVP: Vladimir Guerrero (Angels)
Division Cy Young: Jered Weaver (Angels)
Division Rookie of the Year: Wladimir Belentien (Mariners)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Ervin Santana (Angels)
Sleeper: Adrian Beltre, Rich Harden, Howie Kendrick, Milton Bradley, Jose Lopez, Emil Brown