Taking my cue from the reliever we chose to name our award after, I did not conceive of this as resembling the "Rolaids Reliever of the Year" award, which is open exclusively to closers who pile up saves. I did give some consideration to closing prowess, as I do tend to believe that all other things being equal, the last three outs are the hardest. However, there are of course many games when the hardest outs come earlier, with men on base and the heart of the lineup coming up. With that in mind, these were the factors I prioritized:
1.) Overall Dominance: Generally represented by stats like ERA, WHIP, and K/9, clearly if I was going to put a pitcher on my ballot, he needed to be among the best in his league at keeping runners off the basepaths and, preferably, able, when the situation demanded it, to keep them from even putting the ball in play.
2.) Durability: Being able to strike guys out is great, but being able to get outs night after night is even better. Therefore, relievers who piled up innings and appearances while maintaining their effectiveness got a significant boost on my ballot. After all, during the prime of Gossage's career, from 1977 to 1985, he averaged 93 innings per season.
3.) Closing Games: Pitchers who remained in the running on the basis of the first two standards were given an added boost if they also logged a significant number of those innings at the end of games.
4.) Pressure Situations & Pennant Implications: This was essentially my tiebreaker category. When it came to guys who were more or less evenly matched, I tried to take into consideration how they faired in "Close & Late" type situations, with men on base, etc., and also whether they were pitching crucial innings in August and September, with their team's fate riding on every game.
So, here's my ballot for the American League:
Honorable Mentions: Daniel Bard (Red Sox), Neftali Feliz (Rangers), Andrew Bailey (Athletics), Mariano Rivera (Yankees), Matt Thornton (White Sox), Alexi Ogando (Rangers)
3.) Joakim Soria (Royals)
Pitching for the worst franchise in baseball, Soria proved that he's nonetheless among the most valuable relief pitchers. The Royals have Soria wrapped up at rather favorable terms until 2014, so the 26-year-old may never get to show off his talents on the national stage, but over the last four years he has been one of the top five closers in all of baseball. This season he logged 65 2/3 innings, third most among AL closers, picked up 43 saves for a 65-win team, posted a 1.78 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an exceptional 4.44 K/BB ratio. He finished 2nd among AL relievers in WAR at 1.7.
2.) Rafael Soriano (Rays)
1.) Joaquin Benoit (Rays)
You can easily make a case that the biggest difference between the '09 and the '10 Rays was the presence of shutdown relievers, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit. Last year the Rays didn't establish their bullpen roles until deep into the season and ended up blowing 22 save chances and being in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA (3.98). This year Soriano led the league in saves, with 45, and, more importantly, alongside Joaquin Benoit, made it almost impossible for teams to put runners on base in the late innings against Tampa. Tampa's overall bullpen ERA topped the league at 3.33. Benoit and Soriano ranked #1 and #2 in the AL in WHIP, Opponents OPS, and Opponents Batting Average. In 127 combined appearances, they coughed up only six leads. It was difficult to decide which should rank higher, since Soriano had, arguably, the harder job, but in the end, Benoit's dominance was just too exceptional.
Benoit: 25 HLD (1 SV), 60 1/3 IP, 75 K, 0.68 WHIP, 1.34 ERA
Soriano: 45 SV, 62 1/3 IP, 57 K, 0.80 WHIP, 1.73 ERA
As for the senior circuit:
Honorable Mentions: Heath Bell (Padres), Matt Belisle (Rockies), Billy Wagner (Braves), Mike Adams (Padres), Jonny Venters (Braves), Sean Marshall (Cubs)
3.) Brian Wilson (Giants)
In many seasons, Wilson would be the runaway #1 on my ballot. He led the league in saves (48), while producing a stingy ERA (1.81) and WHIP (1.18), pitching a ton of innings (74 2/3) and piling up strikeouts (93). And, his team edged into the playoffs, highlighting how critical each of his outings was. He was particularly dominant down the stretch, when the Giants needed him most. From August 1 to the end of the year, his ERA was 0.95.
2.) Hong-Chih Kuo (Dodgers)
You though Benoit's numbers were impressive. While pitching almost the exact same number of innings, Kuo did him one better, compiling a 1.20 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, an absolutely insane 403 Opponents OPS, and an 11.50 K/9. Kuo also spent about half the season as the Dodgers closer, so he picked up 12 saves to go along with his 21 holds. What really stands out to me, however, is the fact that over a whole season, he only allowed eight earned runs. Single digits!
1.) Carlos Marmol (Cubs)
If you just see Marmol's solid, but not superlative ERA (2.55) and his 38 saves, you might think I'm revealing my Cubs bias with this vote. However, Marmol's season was actually kind of historic. Only once before in a the Division Play era has a pitcher compiled as many as 138 strikeouts as a reliever (Brad Lidge had 157 in 2004). What gets really crazy, however, is when you look at Marmol's strikeout rate. His 15.99 K/9 is literally the best in baseball's long history, for a player who pitched at least 40 innings. And, really, it isn't even close. Eric Gagne's wild 2003 season, for which he won the Cy Young, comes in at #2, a full strikeout behind Marmol (14.98). Marmol also led all NL closers in innings (77 2/3), so this wasn't exactly a matter of small sample size. And, he topped all relievers in WAR (3.1) by a significant margin. Marmol's ridiculous combination of power stuff and durability has turned him into the league's premier reliever, even though he continues to struggle with wildness (6.03 BB/9).
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Friday, October 15, 2010
A-Roid Bankrupted The Rangers, Now Is The Time For Vengeance (ALCS Preview)
Expanding upon the superlative "Narrative Likability" grade I gave the Rangers prior to the ALDS, let's look at three reasons why the Rangers deserve to beat the Yankees:
3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+." He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays. The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.
2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers. New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams. In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season. The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million. A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.
1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year. That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004! You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar. We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.
Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:
3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason. In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team. They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average. The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR). I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS. The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average. In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks. If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.
2.) In the post-PED era, speed kills. In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season. The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%). You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.
1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts. For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games. If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape. Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA. And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff. C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia. Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:
Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP
Was Sabathia really a better pitcher? If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series. So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.
3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+." He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays. The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.
2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers. New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams. In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season. The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million. A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.
1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year. That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004! You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar. We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.
Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:
3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason. In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team. They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average. The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR). I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS. The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average. In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks. If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.
2.) In the post-PED era, speed kills. In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season. The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%). You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.
1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts. For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games. If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape. Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA. And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff. C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia. Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:
Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP
Was Sabathia really a better pitcher? If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series. So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
The Best Pitcher's Duel You've Ever Seen?
It is quite possible that, from a purely aesthetic perspective, the Saturday night showdown between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in the opening game of the NLCS will be the apex of the 2010 season. Certainly, the postseason drama, as always, will continue to escalate as the series moves forward. And, regardless of the outcome of Game 1, both teams will still be very much alive. However, you are unlikely to see a high-stakes matchup of better pitchers, in this, or any, postseason. It's hard to imagine a better showcase for the craft of pitching.
For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment. Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.
The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.
Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).
Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1
Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential. Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often. In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another. Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).
One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces. However, that isn't necessarily the case. For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate. We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering. This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well. Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been. Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships. Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three. Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers. In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.
In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2. Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00). The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same. It was a great game though. Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves. Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.
Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason. Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS. Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts. Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season. This was another game that lived up to its billing. Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.
Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series. In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings. But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run. Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.
(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax. No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)
As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles. Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable. Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic. In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone. After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning). He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.
Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive. He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television. In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).
As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways. Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher. Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness. Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games. As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers. Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack. For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.
Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now. Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history. You've probably heard all about it. But, it goes back even further than that. Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title. He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA. Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September. In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings. Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.
There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff. We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it. This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.
Or you could watch college football. Jackasses.
For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment. Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.
The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.
Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).
Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1
Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential. Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often. In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another. Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).
One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces. However, that isn't necessarily the case. For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate. We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering. This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well. Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been. Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships. Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three. Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers. In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.
In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2. Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00). The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same. It was a great game though. Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves. Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.
Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason. Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS. Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts. Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season. This was another game that lived up to its billing. Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.
Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series. In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings. But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run. Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.
(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax. No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)
As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles. Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable. Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic. In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone. After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning). He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.
Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive. He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television. In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).
As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways. Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher. Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness. Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games. As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers. Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack. For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.
Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now. Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history. You've probably heard all about it. But, it goes back even further than that. Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title. He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA. Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September. In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings. Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.
There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff. We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it. This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.
Or you could watch college football. Jackasses.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
BBA Ballot: AL Willie Mays Award
Playing time was already a sizable factor when considering the differences on the NL side of ballot between Jason Heyward and Buster Posey, and between Jaime Garcia and Jhoulys Chacin. On the AL side, it becomes an even more crucial aspect of the conversation, as only two AL rookies got enough at-bats to qualify for a batting title, and two more qualified for the ERA title.
Honorable Mention: Austin Jackson (Tigers), John Jaso (Rays), Brian Matusz (Orioles), Brennan Boesch (Tigers)
Third Place: Wade Davis (Rays)
Davis' season did not get off to a great start. At the All-Star Break he was 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA and rumors swirled that he might soon be replaced by the Rays phenom, Jeremy Hellickson. Whether something or someone lit a fire under him, or Davis merely adjusted after his first tour through the AL, he solidified his job in the second half by going 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Second Place: Danny Valencia (Twins)
Valencia didn't come to Minnesota until June, but his presence solidified a position which had been the Achilles heel for the Twins since 2005. Valencia had the highest OPS (799) of any AL rookie who got more than 200 plate appearances. He also led the way in batting average, by a long shot, with a .311 clip. It is true that Austin Jackson got more than twice as many at-bats and was therefore superior to Valencia in most of the counting categories, but Jackson's extraordinary good fortune (.396 BABIP), extremely high strikeout rate (27.5%), and precipitous second-half slide (86 OPS+ in August and September) made him difficult to vote for.
First Place: Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
Andrew Bailey won the AL Rookie of the Year last season with 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA in 83 innings. 22-year-old phenom, Neftali Feliz, has not been quite as good, but on a superior ballclub, he's piled up nearly twice as many saves, setting a new rookie record with 40. His other numbers were none too shabby either. Feliz's triple-digit heat helped him strike out 71 in 69 innings. His 0.88 WHIP was bested by only Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, and Joaquin Benoit among AL relievers. It's not particularly exciting to vote for a reliever, but Feliz is a pretty special pitcher, so I feel somewhat better about it.
Honorable Mention: Austin Jackson (Tigers), John Jaso (Rays), Brian Matusz (Orioles), Brennan Boesch (Tigers)
Third Place: Wade Davis (Rays)
Davis' season did not get off to a great start. At the All-Star Break he was 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA and rumors swirled that he might soon be replaced by the Rays phenom, Jeremy Hellickson. Whether something or someone lit a fire under him, or Davis merely adjusted after his first tour through the AL, he solidified his job in the second half by going 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Second Place: Danny Valencia (Twins)
Valencia didn't come to Minnesota until June, but his presence solidified a position which had been the Achilles heel for the Twins since 2005. Valencia had the highest OPS (799) of any AL rookie who got more than 200 plate appearances. He also led the way in batting average, by a long shot, with a .311 clip. It is true that Austin Jackson got more than twice as many at-bats and was therefore superior to Valencia in most of the counting categories, but Jackson's extraordinary good fortune (.396 BABIP), extremely high strikeout rate (27.5%), and precipitous second-half slide (86 OPS+ in August and September) made him difficult to vote for.
First Place: Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
Andrew Bailey won the AL Rookie of the Year last season with 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA in 83 innings. 22-year-old phenom, Neftali Feliz, has not been quite as good, but on a superior ballclub, he's piled up nearly twice as many saves, setting a new rookie record with 40. His other numbers were none too shabby either. Feliz's triple-digit heat helped him strike out 71 in 69 innings. His 0.88 WHIP was bested by only Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, and Joaquin Benoit among AL relievers. It's not particularly exciting to vote for a reliever, but Feliz is a pretty special pitcher, so I feel somewhat better about it.
Monday, October 11, 2010
BBA Ballot: NL Willie Mays Award
A 20-year-old Willie Mays won the Rookie of the Year Award way back in 1951 with a line that looks eerily like those of this year's major candidates, Jason Heyward and Buster Posey:
Mays: 464 AB, 59 R, 127 H, 22 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 7 SB, .274/.356/.472
Heyward: 520 AB, 83 R, 144 H, 29 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, .277/.393/.456
Posey: 406 AB, 58 R, 124 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.357/.505
Clearly, based on the standard-bearer for the BBA's award for rookie excellence, Heyward and Posey are both excellent candidates. Heyward's appearance of similarity is even boosted by the fact that he's an African-American outfielder who was also 20 years of age for the majority of his rookie season. As he's substantially larger than Mays and plays right field for the Braves, the even more tempting comparison is Hammerin' Hank Aaron, who also broke in at age 20, in 1954, and although he lost the Rookie of the Year to Wally Moon, his stats for that season will look pretty familiar:
Aaron: 468 AB, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .280/.322/.447
Am I proposing that Heyward and Posey are destined to be the rivals of two of the best players in the history of the game? Certainly not. Plenty of rookies have equaled, or even surpassed these stats only to have their development fizzle after a couple seasons in the majors. But to produce in such a fashion, at such a young age, while hitting at the center of playoff-bound lineups, is a pretty exceptional feat, and both have sparked the imaginations of their fan bases to an extent which warrants this lofty comparison. The drama is further heightened by the face they their teams are currently squaring off in the NLDS. So, who do I give precedence in my second-annual BBA Awards ballot?
First off, the best of the rest:
Honorable Mention: Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Jonny Venters (Braves), Daniel Hudson (D-Backs), Tyler Colvin (Cubs), Neil Walker (Pirates), Mike Stanton (Marlins), Travis Wood (Reds), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Hisanori Takahashi (Mets), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Ike Davis (Mets), John Axford (Brewers), Logan Morrison (Marlins), Chris Johnson (Astros)
Third Place: Jaime Garcia (Cardinals)
Because Garcia faltered a little in September and was prematurely shut down, I was tempted to make a case for Jhoulys Chacin, who actually got better as the year went on, finishing off the regular season with a 1.44 ERA in his last eight starts, and was superior to Garcia in both strikeouts and WHIP. But although Chacin is probably much closer than many people think (according to FanGraphs he trails Garcia by only 0.2 in WAR), Garcia still has the edge, thanks mainly to his truly extraordinary ERA (2.70) and the fact that he made seven more starts than Chacin (who spent part of the season in Colorado's bullpen) and threw 26 more total innings. It has been a long, long time since an NL rookie posted an ERA like Garcia's. No pitcher with 120+ innings has done it in the 21st century (Roy Oswalt came fairly close, 2.73, way back in 2001).
And now, the main event:
Second Place: Jason Heyward (Braves)
First Place: Buster Posey (Giants)
In the end, what it came down to for me was the Posey should not be penalized for Brian Sabean's mistakes. The Braves were very adamant this spring that they were going to put their top prospect in the Opening Day lineup because they considered themselves legitimate contenders and they didn't want to jeopardize wins in Bobby Cox's final year just so they could get one more year of arbitration at the backend of Heyward's tenure in Atlanta. The Giants, unfortunately, went the opposite route, leaving Posey in the minors until June and renting Bengie Molina for a couple unhappy months. It's probably safe to say that Posey would've been worth one or two wins had he joined the team in April, but the Giants nonetheless edged into the postseason, so I guess they got the best of both worlds. My point is, had Posey gotten the approximately 20% more ABs that Heyward has, he definitely would've beaten him in the majority of the counting categories. Heyward only has a healthy lead in runs, steals, and triples. In addition to having superior rates stats, for the most part, Posey plays a far more valuable position.
Imagine if the Giants had been forced to put Posey, probably their best hitter, at first base or in right field. It would've limited their ability to use the outfield platoons which were so successful for them in the second half, instead leaning on light-hitting catchers like Molina or Eli Whiteside. Posey was no Mike Piazza either. His 37.1 CS% trails only Yadier Molina, Miguel Olivo, and Russell Martin among NL catchers who played at least 62 games, and his 3.18 Catcher's ERA was second to Yorvit Torrealba. I don't mean to suggest that Heyward was a slouch (3rd in UZR among NL right-fielders), but no outfielder can possibly equal the defensive contribution of an outstanding catcher.
Mays: 464 AB, 59 R, 127 H, 22 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 7 SB, .274/.356/.472
Heyward: 520 AB, 83 R, 144 H, 29 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, .277/.393/.456
Posey: 406 AB, 58 R, 124 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.357/.505
Clearly, based on the standard-bearer for the BBA's award for rookie excellence, Heyward and Posey are both excellent candidates. Heyward's appearance of similarity is even boosted by the fact that he's an African-American outfielder who was also 20 years of age for the majority of his rookie season. As he's substantially larger than Mays and plays right field for the Braves, the even more tempting comparison is Hammerin' Hank Aaron, who also broke in at age 20, in 1954, and although he lost the Rookie of the Year to Wally Moon, his stats for that season will look pretty familiar:
Aaron: 468 AB, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .280/.322/.447
Am I proposing that Heyward and Posey are destined to be the rivals of two of the best players in the history of the game? Certainly not. Plenty of rookies have equaled, or even surpassed these stats only to have their development fizzle after a couple seasons in the majors. But to produce in such a fashion, at such a young age, while hitting at the center of playoff-bound lineups, is a pretty exceptional feat, and both have sparked the imaginations of their fan bases to an extent which warrants this lofty comparison. The drama is further heightened by the face they their teams are currently squaring off in the NLDS. So, who do I give precedence in my second-annual BBA Awards ballot?
First off, the best of the rest:
Honorable Mention: Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Jonny Venters (Braves), Daniel Hudson (D-Backs), Tyler Colvin (Cubs), Neil Walker (Pirates), Mike Stanton (Marlins), Travis Wood (Reds), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Hisanori Takahashi (Mets), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Ike Davis (Mets), John Axford (Brewers), Logan Morrison (Marlins), Chris Johnson (Astros)
Third Place: Jaime Garcia (Cardinals)
Because Garcia faltered a little in September and was prematurely shut down, I was tempted to make a case for Jhoulys Chacin, who actually got better as the year went on, finishing off the regular season with a 1.44 ERA in his last eight starts, and was superior to Garcia in both strikeouts and WHIP. But although Chacin is probably much closer than many people think (according to FanGraphs he trails Garcia by only 0.2 in WAR), Garcia still has the edge, thanks mainly to his truly extraordinary ERA (2.70) and the fact that he made seven more starts than Chacin (who spent part of the season in Colorado's bullpen) and threw 26 more total innings. It has been a long, long time since an NL rookie posted an ERA like Garcia's. No pitcher with 120+ innings has done it in the 21st century (Roy Oswalt came fairly close, 2.73, way back in 2001).
And now, the main event:
Second Place: Jason Heyward (Braves)
First Place: Buster Posey (Giants)
In the end, what it came down to for me was the Posey should not be penalized for Brian Sabean's mistakes. The Braves were very adamant this spring that they were going to put their top prospect in the Opening Day lineup because they considered themselves legitimate contenders and they didn't want to jeopardize wins in Bobby Cox's final year just so they could get one more year of arbitration at the backend of Heyward's tenure in Atlanta. The Giants, unfortunately, went the opposite route, leaving Posey in the minors until June and renting Bengie Molina for a couple unhappy months. It's probably safe to say that Posey would've been worth one or two wins had he joined the team in April, but the Giants nonetheless edged into the postseason, so I guess they got the best of both worlds. My point is, had Posey gotten the approximately 20% more ABs that Heyward has, he definitely would've beaten him in the majority of the counting categories. Heyward only has a healthy lead in runs, steals, and triples. In addition to having superior rates stats, for the most part, Posey plays a far more valuable position.
Imagine if the Giants had been forced to put Posey, probably their best hitter, at first base or in right field. It would've limited their ability to use the outfield platoons which were so successful for them in the second half, instead leaning on light-hitting catchers like Molina or Eli Whiteside. Posey was no Mike Piazza either. His 37.1 CS% trails only Yadier Molina, Miguel Olivo, and Russell Martin among NL catchers who played at least 62 games, and his 3.18 Catcher's ERA was second to Yorvit Torrealba. I don't mean to suggest that Heyward was a slouch (3rd in UZR among NL right-fielders), but no outfielder can possibly equal the defensive contribution of an outstanding catcher.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
If Brooks Conrad Ain't A Second-Baseman, I Don't Know What He Is; Aubrey Huff for M.V.P.?
I've heard several commentators, including ESPN's Jon Miller, make excuses for Braves infielder, Brooks Conrad, who has made an outlandish four errors in the first three games of the NLDS, based on the fact that he's "not a natural second-baseman," having been forced into the position following injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. The fact is, however, the 30-year-old rookie was only a third-baseman out of necessity. Cox moved him to second this postseason in an effort to make him more comfortable, as 90% of him minor-league chances came at that position. He hadn't exactly been slick at the hot corner, making 7 errors in 22 starts (.903 FLD%). I don't mean to pile it on, but you can't blame these mistakes on Cox. Conrad is playing his "natural" position. He's just clearly having some sort of exacerbated Chuck Knoblauch performance anxiety in his first exposure to the October pressure-cooker. He doesn't exactly bring the heavy lumber (1-for-10), so it's probably time to give Troy Glaus or Diory Hernandez a chance.
On a more positive note, in celebration of Aubrey Huff's game-tying and potentially season-saving hit, let's take a look at a highly underrated season-long peformance from the Huffinator:
1.) Huff led the Giants in runs (100), hits (165), homers (26), total bases (288), RBI (86), walks (83), average (.290), OBP (.385), and slugging (.506). He also led the team in games played and at-bats, which may be the biggest accomplishment, considering he was coming off a season in which he was consistently hobbled by back and knee problems. Obviously, even after Andres Torres was made a permanent starter and Buster Posey was promoted to provide him with a little protection, Huff was the single most important addition to this year's team.
2.) Huff's 891 OPS was good for tenth in the NL. His 5.7 WAR was also good for tenth. He also finished in the top ten in runs (7th), walks (6th), and runs created (9th). All this, despite the fact that the lineup around him, especially in the first half, was among the weakest in the National League, and he played half his games in a pitcher's paradise (AT&T Park was 22nd overall in Park Factor this year).
3.) Huff's overall numbers are suppressed by the fact that he had a horrible April. In the final five months of the season he hit .300 with a .922 OPS and 24 of his 26 homers. During that span, only five NL players had a higher OPS than Huff. They were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, and Troy Tulowitzki. That's VIP company.
4.) Huff increased his value be being a kind of premium utilityman, when the Giants needed it. He played over 250 inning in both left and right field. And, according to FanGraphs, he was actually fairly decent in the outfield (1.3 UZR). He was excellent once he took over as the everyday first-baseman, posting a 5.3 UZR, which trailed only Ike Davis and Adam LaRoche on the senior circuit.
I certainly won't be voting for Huff ahead of Votto, CarGo, and Prince Albert, but he should probably be on everybody's ballot.
On a more positive note, in celebration of Aubrey Huff's game-tying and potentially season-saving hit, let's take a look at a highly underrated season-long peformance from the Huffinator:
1.) Huff led the Giants in runs (100), hits (165), homers (26), total bases (288), RBI (86), walks (83), average (.290), OBP (.385), and slugging (.506). He also led the team in games played and at-bats, which may be the biggest accomplishment, considering he was coming off a season in which he was consistently hobbled by back and knee problems. Obviously, even after Andres Torres was made a permanent starter and Buster Posey was promoted to provide him with a little protection, Huff was the single most important addition to this year's team.
2.) Huff's 891 OPS was good for tenth in the NL. His 5.7 WAR was also good for tenth. He also finished in the top ten in runs (7th), walks (6th), and runs created (9th). All this, despite the fact that the lineup around him, especially in the first half, was among the weakest in the National League, and he played half his games in a pitcher's paradise (AT&T Park was 22nd overall in Park Factor this year).
3.) Huff's overall numbers are suppressed by the fact that he had a horrible April. In the final five months of the season he hit .300 with a .922 OPS and 24 of his 26 homers. During that span, only five NL players had a higher OPS than Huff. They were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, and Troy Tulowitzki. That's VIP company.
4.) Huff increased his value be being a kind of premium utilityman, when the Giants needed it. He played over 250 inning in both left and right field. And, according to FanGraphs, he was actually fairly decent in the outfield (1.3 UZR). He was excellent once he took over as the everyday first-baseman, posting a 5.3 UZR, which trailed only Ike Davis and Adam LaRoche on the senior circuit.
I certainly won't be voting for Huff ahead of Votto, CarGo, and Prince Albert, but he should probably be on everybody's ballot.
Saturday, October 09, 2010
BBA Ballot: NL Connie Mack Award
Stay tuned at the BBA for the unveiling of the winners later this week. Here's my ballot for the senior circuit:
Honorable Mentions: Bud Black (Padres) & Bobby Cox (Braves)
I spent all season predicting both these teams to bend over like wet noodles and, in the end, I was only half right about each, so I'm here to say that their collective "overperformance" should be a feather in the cap of their managers. That said, it was only by virtue of the fact that their late-season flounderings were synchronized with those of the Cardinals and Rockies, as well as each other, that either one of them backdoored their way into playing baseball in October. Black worked a minor miracle with his young pitching staff, but he also gave away a few critical wins by being too loyal for too long to guys like David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, and the Hairston brothers. Cox overcame a bevy of injuries and coaxed career years out of Omar Infante and Martin Prado, but he also worked his pitchers to the bone, especially Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, both pushed too far too fast following their injuries. It was an outstanding season for both franchises, but one that might actually have leveraged future performance for only modest immediate returns.
Third Place: Charlie Manuel (Phillies)
Eric Karabell has been making the case for Manuel for most of the past month and it's a pretty good one. His entire infield, and therefore his one through four hitters, all missed substantial time. At one point in late July, when the attrition was particularly high, the two-time reigning NL champs fell as far as seven games back of the Braves and were only three games above .500. Yet, somehow, even though they were never a full strength, the Phils came raging back over the last two months and finished with the best record in baseball and their best record since 1993. Karabell is correct. This is among Manuel's finest accomplishments. However, he was blessed with an unflappable veteran roster, the core of which has been through this gambit for each of the last four seasons. He is overseeing a dynasty on rival with Big Red Machine, the "We Are Family" Pirates, and the late-'60s Cardinals, the standard-bearers for National League baseball. And, this season, he also had the best pitcher in baseball, who threw a perfect game, brought home 21 victories, and recorded more outs than anybody since Livan Hernandez in 2004. Was there ever a chance this team would finish anywhere except atop the National League? Probably not.
Second Place: Bruce Bochy (Giants)
In his fourth year with San Francisco, Bochy got the Giants back to the postseason for the first time since the "Bonds Years" ('00-'03). He was blessed with an extraordinary rotation, but as has been the case in every season since his arrival, Bochy had to fret and stress for every run. I've already covered San Francisco's dubious, but extremely entertaining "expendables" strategy at length. It's not easy choosing between Jose Guillen, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross, when that's all you have available. It's not easy benching two likable veterans (Edgar Renteria & Aaron Rowand) who are making over $20 Million, but can't hit a lick. It's not easy turning the left side of your infield over to two men who weigh about 250 lbs. apiece (Pablo Sandoval & Juan Uribe) when you are team built around pitching. Bochy was faced with numerous tough decisions and almost all of them worked out perfectly. You can give some of the credit to Brian Sabean or to luck, which may be the same thing, but you can't argue with the result.
First Place: Dusty Baker (Reds)
Cincinnati's 13 win improvement is the largest of any team in the majors between '09 and '10. There only significant offseason acquisitions were a 20-year-old Cuban lefty who didn't make his debut until late August and a 35-year-old journeyman shortstop who finished the season at 0.4 wins above replacement. When Baker came to Cincinnati in '08 promising to get them back to the postseason, many probably believed he would do it with a ton of veterans acquired through free agency, as he had with Chicago and San Francisco. Quite to the contrary, this team is built on a foundation of youth and primed to compete for several years to come. Baker clearly had a plan from the moment he joined the organization. As usual, he gained the trust of his players. And, as usual, he kept his promises. It doesn't take a whole lot of stats to prove that Baker is worthy of his fourth Manager of the Year trophy, tying him with Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox for the most all time. But there are these. The Reds led the NL in runs, hits, homers, total bases, RBI, average, slugging percentage, and OPS. They also tied for the fewest errors and the highest fielding percentage. In my opinion, it's enough to make Baker deserving of his first Connie Mack award.
Honorable Mentions: Bud Black (Padres) & Bobby Cox (Braves)
I spent all season predicting both these teams to bend over like wet noodles and, in the end, I was only half right about each, so I'm here to say that their collective "overperformance" should be a feather in the cap of their managers. That said, it was only by virtue of the fact that their late-season flounderings were synchronized with those of the Cardinals and Rockies, as well as each other, that either one of them backdoored their way into playing baseball in October. Black worked a minor miracle with his young pitching staff, but he also gave away a few critical wins by being too loyal for too long to guys like David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, and the Hairston brothers. Cox overcame a bevy of injuries and coaxed career years out of Omar Infante and Martin Prado, but he also worked his pitchers to the bone, especially Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, both pushed too far too fast following their injuries. It was an outstanding season for both franchises, but one that might actually have leveraged future performance for only modest immediate returns.
Third Place: Charlie Manuel (Phillies)
Eric Karabell has been making the case for Manuel for most of the past month and it's a pretty good one. His entire infield, and therefore his one through four hitters, all missed substantial time. At one point in late July, when the attrition was particularly high, the two-time reigning NL champs fell as far as seven games back of the Braves and were only three games above .500. Yet, somehow, even though they were never a full strength, the Phils came raging back over the last two months and finished with the best record in baseball and their best record since 1993. Karabell is correct. This is among Manuel's finest accomplishments. However, he was blessed with an unflappable veteran roster, the core of which has been through this gambit for each of the last four seasons. He is overseeing a dynasty on rival with Big Red Machine, the "We Are Family" Pirates, and the late-'60s Cardinals, the standard-bearers for National League baseball. And, this season, he also had the best pitcher in baseball, who threw a perfect game, brought home 21 victories, and recorded more outs than anybody since Livan Hernandez in 2004. Was there ever a chance this team would finish anywhere except atop the National League? Probably not.
Second Place: Bruce Bochy (Giants)
In his fourth year with San Francisco, Bochy got the Giants back to the postseason for the first time since the "Bonds Years" ('00-'03). He was blessed with an extraordinary rotation, but as has been the case in every season since his arrival, Bochy had to fret and stress for every run. I've already covered San Francisco's dubious, but extremely entertaining "expendables" strategy at length. It's not easy choosing between Jose Guillen, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross, when that's all you have available. It's not easy benching two likable veterans (Edgar Renteria & Aaron Rowand) who are making over $20 Million, but can't hit a lick. It's not easy turning the left side of your infield over to two men who weigh about 250 lbs. apiece (Pablo Sandoval & Juan Uribe) when you are team built around pitching. Bochy was faced with numerous tough decisions and almost all of them worked out perfectly. You can give some of the credit to Brian Sabean or to luck, which may be the same thing, but you can't argue with the result.
First Place: Dusty Baker (Reds)
Cincinnati's 13 win improvement is the largest of any team in the majors between '09 and '10. There only significant offseason acquisitions were a 20-year-old Cuban lefty who didn't make his debut until late August and a 35-year-old journeyman shortstop who finished the season at 0.4 wins above replacement. When Baker came to Cincinnati in '08 promising to get them back to the postseason, many probably believed he would do it with a ton of veterans acquired through free agency, as he had with Chicago and San Francisco. Quite to the contrary, this team is built on a foundation of youth and primed to compete for several years to come. Baker clearly had a plan from the moment he joined the organization. As usual, he gained the trust of his players. And, as usual, he kept his promises. It doesn't take a whole lot of stats to prove that Baker is worthy of his fourth Manager of the Year trophy, tying him with Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox for the most all time. But there are these. The Reds led the NL in runs, hits, homers, total bases, RBI, average, slugging percentage, and OPS. They also tied for the fewest errors and the highest fielding percentage. In my opinion, it's enough to make Baker deserving of his first Connie Mack award.
BBA Ballot: AL Connie Mack Award
Announcements of the second-annual BBA awards will begin later this week with the Connie Mack Award for managerial excellence. Here's an explanation of my ballot for the American League:
American League:
Honorable Mentions: Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Ozzie Guillen (White Sox), & Joe Maddon (Rays)
Gardenhire is likely to get a lot of support this season, and much of it is deserved, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he was coaching the defending champion in the AL Central, a relatively weak division, and his front office blessed him with a 50% spike in payroll and brought in reinforcements like Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes for his depleted bullpen at the deadline. Gardenhire did a pretty good job compensating for his team's defensive deficiencies and he got a lot out of his starting rotation, but I'm not sure the Twins dramatically exceeded expectations, which is arguably the best way of judging a manager.
Minnesota's rival, the White Sox, who stayed in the hunt until September, were probably a bigger surprise, as they were a losing team in 2009. Guillen, as controversial as ever, might've won this award running away if he'd been able to mount a pennant-winning charge in the final month. Even so, the Sox improved by nine wins, the third-biggest improvement in the AL, despite the fact that the roster had very little turnover. I believe that Ozzie and GM Kenny Williams deserve at least a modest shout-out for that accomplishment.
It's hard to leave the winningest manager in the AL off my ballot, and I do believe Joe Maddon deserves a great deal of credit for the success the Rays have had the last three seasons. He made some very deft moves this year. As always, he managed his bullpen as efficiently and effectively as anybody in either league. He was patient with his young pitchers and they rewarded him in spades. He mixed and matched at four positions in order to keep everybody on his deep, talented bench involved. The Rays played great defense, they got clutch hits (until recently), they held leads, and their starters pitched deep into games. Impressive work, Joe. It is, however, one of the most talent-laden rosters in recent memory and they went the entire season without a critical injury, so he had a pretty nice template to work from. It would've been hard to manage this team out of the postseason. So Maddon falls just a hair short of my ballot.
Third Place: Terry Francona (Red Sox)
Gardenhire's supporters will frequently cite the losses of closer, Joe Nathan, and All-Star first-baseman, Justin Morneau, but the Twins were the picture of health compared with Boston. The Red Sox, who finished with just five fewer wins than Minnesota, in a significantly tougher division, suffered significant injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, and Mike Cameron, yet they were still within striking distance of a playoff berth with less than a week remaining. Francona got way more than anyone could've expected out of replacement-level journeymen like Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, and Daniel Nava. He continued to cobble together innings from an aging, overworked bullpen. And he gingerly nursed the egos of his stars and they struggled with prolonged slumps, flukes, bad breaks, misdiagnoses, position battles, and quarrels, both on and off the field. The Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, but one could easily argue that this was among Francona's most masterly performances.
Second Place: Cito Gaston (Blue Jays)
Last offseason, Toronto said a tearful goodbye to quite possible the greatest player in their franchise's history (only Carlos Delgado has a competitive claim), Roy Halladay. They also gave away their most talented (and overpaid) hitter, Alex Rios. Their two best hitters from 2009, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, began the season mired in horrible slumps and finished with a combined drop of more than 400 pts. in OPS. Yet, somehow, despite everything working against them, the Blue Jays improved their record by ten wins in 2010. With no Halladay, what passed for an elder statesman on Toronto's staff was 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who hadn't pitched in a single game during 2009, yet somehow four young Jays reached double-digit wins, and combined for a .627 winning percentage.
Gaston's much-maligned free-swinging approach helped Jose Bautista, John Buck, Fred Lewis, and Alex Gonzalez achieve career years, and former superstar Vernon Wells turned in his best season since 2006. When the season began, this team was expected to be overwhelmed by the stiff competition of the AL East, but not only did they finish with a winning record, miles ahead of the Orioles, but they managed go 10-10 against the playoff-bound Yankees and Rays. If you include Texas and Minnesota, Toronto was actually 23-16 against the best teams in the American League. Gaston deserves at least some of the credit for this highly unexpected turnaround and his successor is going to have a very tough act to follow.
First Place: Ron Washington (Rangers)
Yes, I'm partial to Washington and the 2010 Rangers. That's well-established by now. However, the case for Washington goes well beyond his extremely high Narrative Likability Factor, buoyed in part by the adversity which marred the Rangers Spring Training and forced him into answering silly questions about cocaine.
The Rangers were not a charmed franchise this year, despite the fact that they turned in their best performance in over a decade. For one thing, the fragile trio of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler remained fragile (Hamilton made 116 starts, Cruz 101, Kinsler 102). Likewise, Rich Harden and Scott Feldman, who entered the season #1 and #2 in the rotation, made a combined total of 40 starts, compiled a record of 12-16, and an ERA upwards of 5.50. Texas also spent a significant portion of the season without incumbent closer Frank Francisco. There was an ongoing clusterfuck at three different positions, as highly-touted youngsters Julio Borbon, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, and Max Ramirez were all busts. As a result, Texas ranked near the bottom of the league in OPS from catcher (28th), first base (27th), and center field (20th). Clearly, not every move Ron Washington (and GM Jon Daniels) made worked out perfectly, but here are some crucial ones that did:
1.) Putting Elvis Andrus in the leadoff spot and leaving him there, even after Kinsler returned. Andrus struggled a bit with a hamstring injury down the stretch, depressing his numbers, but his excellent first half (.361 OBP, 23 SB) helped Texas take control of the division.
2.) Putting Neftali Feliz in the closer role and leaving him there, even after Francisco returned. Feliz notably set a rookie record for saves, with 40, threw 70 innings, and was among the most dominant closers in the AL (2.73 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 0.88 WHIP).
3.) Putting Alexi Ogando in the bullpen and leaving him there. Ogando, another rookie, had not even thrown a pitch in A-ball prior to this season. But the Rangers rushed him through the organization and Washington had the confidence to make him a late-inning reliever almost from the moment he reached the bigs. In 44 innings, all coming after June 15, Ogando compiled a ridiculously low 1.30 ERA.
4.) Putting Tommy Hunter in the rotation and leaving him there. With Harden, Feldman, Derrek Holland, and others clamoring for starts in the second half, the 23-year-old Hunter was not the favorite of many in the Dallas media. But the Hoosier responded with eight straight wins in June and July. He finished the season 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA and will take the ball in Game 4 of the ALDS.
As you can see, Washington never made the easy decision by going with the status quo or a mediocre veteran over ayoung player. He had the audacity to go against the conventional wisdom, even though many local sportswriters were calling for his head even before the season began. Even on the hot seat, Washington was always the picture of calm and never threw one of his players under the bus. And, now, largely due to his example, the Rangers are a win away from their first ever ALCS (knock on wood).
American League:
Honorable Mentions: Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Ozzie Guillen (White Sox), & Joe Maddon (Rays)
Gardenhire is likely to get a lot of support this season, and much of it is deserved, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he was coaching the defending champion in the AL Central, a relatively weak division, and his front office blessed him with a 50% spike in payroll and brought in reinforcements like Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes for his depleted bullpen at the deadline. Gardenhire did a pretty good job compensating for his team's defensive deficiencies and he got a lot out of his starting rotation, but I'm not sure the Twins dramatically exceeded expectations, which is arguably the best way of judging a manager.
Minnesota's rival, the White Sox, who stayed in the hunt until September, were probably a bigger surprise, as they were a losing team in 2009. Guillen, as controversial as ever, might've won this award running away if he'd been able to mount a pennant-winning charge in the final month. Even so, the Sox improved by nine wins, the third-biggest improvement in the AL, despite the fact that the roster had very little turnover. I believe that Ozzie and GM Kenny Williams deserve at least a modest shout-out for that accomplishment.
It's hard to leave the winningest manager in the AL off my ballot, and I do believe Joe Maddon deserves a great deal of credit for the success the Rays have had the last three seasons. He made some very deft moves this year. As always, he managed his bullpen as efficiently and effectively as anybody in either league. He was patient with his young pitchers and they rewarded him in spades. He mixed and matched at four positions in order to keep everybody on his deep, talented bench involved. The Rays played great defense, they got clutch hits (until recently), they held leads, and their starters pitched deep into games. Impressive work, Joe. It is, however, one of the most talent-laden rosters in recent memory and they went the entire season without a critical injury, so he had a pretty nice template to work from. It would've been hard to manage this team out of the postseason. So Maddon falls just a hair short of my ballot.
Third Place: Terry Francona (Red Sox)
Gardenhire's supporters will frequently cite the losses of closer, Joe Nathan, and All-Star first-baseman, Justin Morneau, but the Twins were the picture of health compared with Boston. The Red Sox, who finished with just five fewer wins than Minnesota, in a significantly tougher division, suffered significant injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, and Mike Cameron, yet they were still within striking distance of a playoff berth with less than a week remaining. Francona got way more than anyone could've expected out of replacement-level journeymen like Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, and Daniel Nava. He continued to cobble together innings from an aging, overworked bullpen. And he gingerly nursed the egos of his stars and they struggled with prolonged slumps, flukes, bad breaks, misdiagnoses, position battles, and quarrels, both on and off the field. The Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, but one could easily argue that this was among Francona's most masterly performances.
Second Place: Cito Gaston (Blue Jays)
Last offseason, Toronto said a tearful goodbye to quite possible the greatest player in their franchise's history (only Carlos Delgado has a competitive claim), Roy Halladay. They also gave away their most talented (and overpaid) hitter, Alex Rios. Their two best hitters from 2009, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, began the season mired in horrible slumps and finished with a combined drop of more than 400 pts. in OPS. Yet, somehow, despite everything working against them, the Blue Jays improved their record by ten wins in 2010. With no Halladay, what passed for an elder statesman on Toronto's staff was 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who hadn't pitched in a single game during 2009, yet somehow four young Jays reached double-digit wins, and combined for a .627 winning percentage.
Gaston's much-maligned free-swinging approach helped Jose Bautista, John Buck, Fred Lewis, and Alex Gonzalez achieve career years, and former superstar Vernon Wells turned in his best season since 2006. When the season began, this team was expected to be overwhelmed by the stiff competition of the AL East, but not only did they finish with a winning record, miles ahead of the Orioles, but they managed go 10-10 against the playoff-bound Yankees and Rays. If you include Texas and Minnesota, Toronto was actually 23-16 against the best teams in the American League. Gaston deserves at least some of the credit for this highly unexpected turnaround and his successor is going to have a very tough act to follow.
First Place: Ron Washington (Rangers)
Yes, I'm partial to Washington and the 2010 Rangers. That's well-established by now. However, the case for Washington goes well beyond his extremely high Narrative Likability Factor, buoyed in part by the adversity which marred the Rangers Spring Training and forced him into answering silly questions about cocaine.
The Rangers were not a charmed franchise this year, despite the fact that they turned in their best performance in over a decade. For one thing, the fragile trio of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler remained fragile (Hamilton made 116 starts, Cruz 101, Kinsler 102). Likewise, Rich Harden and Scott Feldman, who entered the season #1 and #2 in the rotation, made a combined total of 40 starts, compiled a record of 12-16, and an ERA upwards of 5.50. Texas also spent a significant portion of the season without incumbent closer Frank Francisco. There was an ongoing clusterfuck at three different positions, as highly-touted youngsters Julio Borbon, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, and Max Ramirez were all busts. As a result, Texas ranked near the bottom of the league in OPS from catcher (28th), first base (27th), and center field (20th). Clearly, not every move Ron Washington (and GM Jon Daniels) made worked out perfectly, but here are some crucial ones that did:
1.) Putting Elvis Andrus in the leadoff spot and leaving him there, even after Kinsler returned. Andrus struggled a bit with a hamstring injury down the stretch, depressing his numbers, but his excellent first half (.361 OBP, 23 SB) helped Texas take control of the division.
2.) Putting Neftali Feliz in the closer role and leaving him there, even after Francisco returned. Feliz notably set a rookie record for saves, with 40, threw 70 innings, and was among the most dominant closers in the AL (2.73 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 0.88 WHIP).
3.) Putting Alexi Ogando in the bullpen and leaving him there. Ogando, another rookie, had not even thrown a pitch in A-ball prior to this season. But the Rangers rushed him through the organization and Washington had the confidence to make him a late-inning reliever almost from the moment he reached the bigs. In 44 innings, all coming after June 15, Ogando compiled a ridiculously low 1.30 ERA.
4.) Putting Tommy Hunter in the rotation and leaving him there. With Harden, Feldman, Derrek Holland, and others clamoring for starts in the second half, the 23-year-old Hunter was not the favorite of many in the Dallas media. But the Hoosier responded with eight straight wins in June and July. He finished the season 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA and will take the ball in Game 4 of the ALDS.
As you can see, Washington never made the easy decision by going with the status quo or a mediocre veteran over ayoung player. He had the audacity to go against the conventional wisdom, even though many local sportswriters were calling for his head even before the season began. Even on the hot seat, Washington was always the picture of calm and never threw one of his players under the bus. And, now, largely due to his example, the Rangers are a win away from their first ever ALCS (knock on wood).
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Narrative Likability Factor & The San Francisco Giants
The Giants began this season looking much like they have for the entirety of Bruce Bochy's tenure, which began in 2007. They had pitching, in abundance, led by the youthful trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, but they had a lineup composed primarily of overpaid, over-the-hill veterans who hit very little and fielded less. After two months, Giants fans must've had an eery feeling of deja vu. They were still in the thick of the NL West hunt, but the team seemed content wasting at-bats on Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina. It seemed only a matter of time before the Rockies and the Dodgers simply hit their way past San Francisco, just as they had done in each of the last three years.
The first step in Brian Sabean's plan to thwart this inevitability was so obvious, one might call it shameful that he hadn't resorted to it sooner. He recalled top prospect, Buster Posey, who had done nothing but hit ever since the Giants drafted him. The fresh-faced Posey was almost immediately inserted in the center of the lineup. He has been the Giants most productive hitter ever since. But the remainder of his strategy was neither particularly obvious, nor particularly advisable. Basically, Sabean decided he was going to the scrap heap, looking for the players other teams were giving up on. Such players, many of them with some modicum of former glory, would be carrying a chip on their collective shoulders which might further inspire their performance, at least over the short term. Somehow this motley crew of overweight infielders, former designated hitters, and minor-league journeymen, replete with aching backs, bad knees, and tendonitis, were able to inch the Giants into the postseason, where, suddenly, sporting one of the game's best rotations, they become a serious threat. As part of my ongoing dissertation on Narrative Likability Factor in the 2010 playoffs, here's a look at the cast of San Francisco's EXPENDABLES:
- Andres Torres, CF: The face of the Expendables is definitely Andres Torres, who Sabean signed to a minor-league contract prior to the 2009 season. At the time, Torres was 30-years-old and had been through six different organizations without being granted more than 168 at-bats at the major-league level. His most recent cup of coffee had come with the Rangers in 2005 and had lasted all of eight games. Torres had long ago been reckoned "organizational depth." The Giants were unenthusiastic, even following Torres's excellent performance at AAA in '08. They gave younger, mid-level prospects like John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz, and Travis Ishikawa every opportunity to win the job that fell, finally and reluctantly, to him. Torres responded to his first ever shot at regular playing time by becoming the most valuable center-fielder in the National League. His 6.0 WAR trails only Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez among NL outfielders and his 21.5 UZR was best in the league. Meanwhile, he'll take home the league minimum and won't be eligible for free agency until 2014, by which point he'll be 36. If the Giants win the pennant, Andres Torres becomes the future subject of a Disney biopic. You heard it here first.
- Juan Uribe, SS: The long-time White Sox shortstop also joined the Giants prior to the '09 season. Sabean gave him a minor-league contract and the opportunity to win a utilityman job for just 20% of the salary he'd made the previous season. Clearly, there wasn't a bidding war following a year in which Uribe missed substantial time, posted a 682 OPS, and quarreled with Ozzie Guillen. Uribe played 300 innings at three different positions in '09 and hit well enough that the Giants resigned him this past offseason. In May he became their everyday shortstop, potentially the fattest everyday shortstop in the history of major-league baseball, and responded my posting career highs in homers (24) and RBI (85).
- Aubrey Huff, 1B: Huff has had a helluva ride the last few years. After an extended tenure with the Devil Rays, Huff signed a sizable deal with the Orioles and rewarded them with a big year in 2008, when he won a Silver Slugger and even got some MVP votes. The following year, however, he was so bad that the Orioles traded him to Detroit at the deadline for a bucket of balls and a minor-league reliever. This offseason, as he recovered from a back injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the stretch run, nobody wanted anything to do with him and he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Giants for less than half of what he'd become accustomed to making. Following a slow start, he has once again turned himself into an MVP candidate, leading the Giants in runs, homers, RBI, and OPS. Of this cast of Expendables, he looks the most like a washed-up Hollywood action hero.
- Santiago Casilla, RP: The 30-year-old reliever spent three years doing mop-up duty in Oakland before being unceremoniously released by Billy Beane during the offseason. Across the Bay, Sabean saw something he liked. Casilla has blossomed in San Francisco proper, becoming one of the Giants top set-up men and posting a miniscule 1.95 ERA in 55 innings of work. A big-bodied flame-thrower without a second pitch, Casilla is basically the Latino Bobby Jenks.
- Pat Burrell, LF: Pat the Bat also fell from grace in a hurry. The longtime Phillie signed a sizable deal with the Rays prior to '09. He was awful as their DH and ran amok with teammates and management to such a degree that the cash-starved Rays released him, eating about $7 Million in salary. Sabean swooped in with a minor-league deal and Burrell eventually became the team's everyday left-fielder, swatting 18 HR and driving in 51 in half a season. This man clearly should've never again played the outfield, but he's still good for the occasional 440 ft. moonshot.
- Ramon Ramirez, RP: Ramirez joined his sixth organization prior to his 29th birthday. It was the fourth time he'd been traded, most notably on the other end of deals for Jorge De La Rosa and Coco Crisp. Ramirez had been a very valuable, durable middle reliever for two seasons in Boston, accumulating a 2.74 ERA in 141 innings between '08 and '09. But when he started slow, the Boston brass looked to unload him for a 23-year-old with a 4.09 ERA at AA. As the Boston bullpen imploded down the stretch, it might've been nice to have the guy who has given up only two earned runs since joining the Giants (0.67 ERA).
- Jose Guillen, RF: Perhaps feeling invincible by this point, Sabean netted Guillen in a waiver trade with the Royals in August. Guillen is most famous for being such an unbelievable pain in the ass that the Angels asked him to leave during a season in which he had driven in over a hundred runs. He also has one of the ten best throwing arms in major-league history (according to MLB Network). The Giants are Guillen's tenth major-league team. Always a tantalizing talent, Guillen never managed to make an All-Star team and had just that one lonely season of 100+ RBI. This one has had only modest returns thusfar, as Guillen has been merely replacement level since joining San Francisco. However, he's a notoriously streaky hitter, if he got hot in October it could be exactly the thing to spur the Giants to an unlikely pennant.
- Cody Ross, OF: Ross was unexpectedly DFA'd by his former team, the Marlins, after two solid seasons as their centerfielder. For the Giants, he plays against southpaws, pinch-hits, and comes in as a defensive replacement. He's performed admirably in that capacity.
If there has every been a gaggle of baseball grinders with something to prove, this is it. And that makes the Giants a lovable underdog. They are old, they are slow, occasionally to the point of provoking laughter. They swing for the fences with great frequency and miss with greater ferocity. They are, like Sylvester Stallone, often aggravating and painful to watch. If the Giants advance, it will be primarily because of their stable of flamethrowing 25-year-olds. But in order for that to happen, the 35-year-olds are going to have a grind out at least a couple runs a game and when it happens, it's cause for the kind of elation usually reserved for middle-aged men who hit homers at fantasy camp.
Narrative Likability Factor: A
Monday, October 04, 2010
My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)
On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game. Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers. However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
| Texas: | Tampa: | ||
| Cliff Lee | 7.0 | David Price | 4.3 |
| C. J. Wilson | 4.4 | Matt Garza | 2.0 |
| Colby Lewis | 4.4 | Wade Davis | 0.9 |
| Tommy Hunter | 0.7 | James Shields | 2.2 |
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
Sunday Showdown Situation
It would have been easy for the Phillies to play complacently this weekend. It has certainly been the habit of the other postseason-bound franchises. Minnesota has been giving away games since the moment they clinched. Even the Yankees and Rays, playing for home-field advantage and a division title, have seemed uninspired of late, as though it matters little to them where or whom they play in the ALDS. Fair enough.
Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it. They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season. If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.
Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good. If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance. If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.
Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164. If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday. The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.
Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday. The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series. On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.
All three of these teams are built on pitching. San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters. If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.
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As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season. We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero). Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish. A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it. On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision. His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down. Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break. Don't be fooled.
Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it. They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season. If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.
Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good. If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance. If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.
Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164. If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday. The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.
Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday. The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series. On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.
All three of these teams are built on pitching. San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters. If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.
-----
As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season. We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero). Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish. A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it. On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision. His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down. Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break. Don't be fooled.
Friday, October 01, 2010
"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Tampa Bay Rays
- Baseball City?: It was fortunate I held off a few days before addressing the Rays, because a new component was introduced to their NLF formula just this week, when, following their postseason-clinching win over the Orioles, Evan Longoria and David Price sparked a minor controversy by complaining about the lack of support they were getting from Tampa fans, as crowds have been very light in the waning weeks, even though the Rays are chasing the top record in the AL. This isn't really a "new" story, as Tampa's attendance problem, alternately blamed on an apathetic fanbase, an unattractive and inconvenient ballpark, and a miserly owner, has fueled relocation speculation for a decade, essentially from the moment the Rays entered the league. The Rays went to the World Series in '08 and have now put together competitive teams for three consecutive years, so their quality of play is no longer to blame, yet attendance is essentially unchanged. Many are speculating that the Rays TV ratings have improved significantly enough to offset mediocre attendance, but owner, Stuart Sternberg, has already cited it as one reason why he will be scaling back the payroll in 2011. The outcome of this postseason may, to some extent, decide the future of baseball in Tampa. Not only do the Rays need the revenue which playing baseball in October generates, but they may need a championship in order to promote support for a new stadium. Without that stadium, Sternberg may elect either to scale back salaries to an extent that competing in the AL East would be even more far-fetched, or could seek to relocate the team to someplace like Charlotte.
- Good For Bloggers: Sabermetrician and baseball blogger extraordinaire, John Keri, has written a book about the Rays front office philosophy, called The Extra 2%, scheduled for publication in March. Not only would a win probably increase interest in the book, which I expect could potentially be as interesting and influential and Michael Lewis's Moneyball, though likely not a popular, but it would certainly strengthen his argument about Andrew Friedman's well-executed plan if the Rays also had a championship trophy to hang their hats on.
- The Break-Up: To that effect, there is little doubt, win or no, that the very special collection of talented players, almost all of which came up through Tampa's minor league system, will start going their separate ways come November. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are free agents. Many have speculated that B. J. Upton, following two disappointing seasons, may need a change of scenery. Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and others may also go on the trading block as Friedman commits to the rebuilding process. If and when the Rays make it back to the postseason, they will likely be have a dramatically different composition. This set of players will go down in history as their first quality Rays team, one that captured our imaginations with their improbable surge to the front of the AL East, a place generally reserved only for the monolithic franchises of New England. When Tampa's best are all playing for one of those monoliths, it would be nice if they had a Rays ring to annoy the other millionaires with.
What with those eight last-place finishes in their first nine seasons, it's easy to see how the Rays could still be viewed as an underdog. They are not, clearly, following three seasons in which they averaged 92+ wins. They have one of the cagiest GMs in the league and are loaded, both at the major and minor league level. The Rays have been built to perform like a well-oiled machine. Unfortunately, they sometimes play the game that way. They are professional and business-like in almost every way, but not always animated and full of moxy, the way we generally presume our underdogs to be. And, at an individual level at least, there is very little sense of urgency. Almost every playoff team has an icon or token player - Roy Halladay, Jim Thome, etc. - whose legacy fuels the entire roster's desire to win. In Tampa, there is no player on the roster older than 35 (Randy Choate) and the average age is 28. These guys certainly don't feel like this could be their "last chance".
Narrative Likability Factor: B
"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Cincinnati Reds
I'm continuing my ongoing assessment of playoff-bound franchise based upon their dramatic appeal with a look at the Cincinnati Reds. Here's what's to like:
- The Cleveland of Southern Ohio: We generally make a big deal out of cities with tortured fan-bases, but for some reason, Cincinnati rarely makes that list, even though the city went a decade (from '95-'05) without even sniffing the playoffs in either football or baseball. The last time they celebrated a championship was 1990. Certainly, their drought is miniature in comparison with some of the other teams in the league, but of all the remaining contenders, the Reds are the franchise that has waited the longest for the opportunity to play baseball in October.
- A Big Middle Finger To Billy DeWitt, Jr.: The Cardinals aren't exactly the "Evil Empire," but they are the most successful franchise in the history of the N.L. and they were heavily favored to runaway with the Central division again when the season began. But former St. Louis GM, Walt Jocketty, has run roughshod over his former club. To considerable astonishment, Cardinal's owner, Bill DeWitt, fired Jocketty only a year after the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series, despite the fact that he'd taken the Redbirds to the postseason eight times in the previous twelve seasons. The Reds jumped at the opportunity to land Jocketty, immediately hiring him as a consultant and inserting him as GM less than a year later. One of his first orders of business was the acquisition of another disgruntled former Cardinal, Scott Rolen, who has had a resurgent season at the center of the Reds lineup. Rumors swirled last offseason that Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan might soon follow. Getting back to the promised land before DeWitt would by the capstone of Jocketty's calculated revenge.
- Baker's Curse: Dusty Baker is, by all accounts, one of the most likable managers in the sport. He's adored by his players, convivial with the media, and never squabbles with his front office. He has also been very successful. This will be his fourth division title, with his third different team. He's been named Manager of the Year three times, and could make it four with this year's performance. He also took the Wild Card Giants to within eight outs of a Championship in 2002 and the lowly Cubs to within five outs of the World Series in 2003. His 1400+ victories rank him 25th all-time and within a couple years he will have moved well inside the top 20. Of the 24 managers currently in front of him, sixteen are in the Hall of Fame, and Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Ton LaRussa, and Jim Leyland are almost certainly headed there sooner or later. However, all those who gained induction as managers had won at least one World Series. Baker has never gotten his team to the podium and, at 62, he may be running out of chances. We can be certain, if the Reds have a lead in the late innings of a deciding game, Baker's gonna be sucking on that toothpick like it was his last cigarette before storming the beach at Normandy in 1944.
- The Lucky Charm: Orlando Cabrera is no longer the player he was in the prime of his career, when he was a Gold Glove middle infielder and top-of-the-order hitter, who could surprise you with his power. However, O.C. has been to the postseason six times in the last seven years and with six different franchises. Last year, the Charm hit a crucial homer in Game 163 to lift the Twins into the playoffs, but other than that, he's struggled in October, with just a 609 OPS.
The primary appeal of the Reds is that they are a team which very few fans outside of Cincinnati will have any familiarity with. They have an MVP candidate, Joey Votto, who was best know, prior to this season, for having missed time due to anxiety. Cabrera, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo have considerable postseason experience, but few other Reds do. Those who haven't had the opportunity to watch them play are going to be wildly surprised by how players like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Edinson Volquez are. They will be even more of an underdog in perception than they are in reality just because they have so few household names. That's exactly the kind of thing that pumps up your NLF.
Narrative Likability Factor: A
Monday, September 27, 2010
Narrative Likability Factor & The Philadelphia Phillies
As I write, the Phillies and Roy Halladay have taken a commanding lead over the Nationals and are now about a dozen outs from clinching their fourth consecutive NL East title. The Phillies were clearly the NL favorites heading into the 2010 season and, sporting the best record in the league following another scorching September, there seems little cause for that to change. The Phillies have won the last two NL pennants, as well as the World Series in 2008. The lineup featuring Rollins, Utley, Howard, Werth, and Victorino is as familiar to fans across the nation as those in Boston and New York. So, it's probably time for somebody else to get a chance, right? "Likable narratives" don't generally feature dynasties like this. However, there are still a few reasons to get behind the Phightin' Phils:
- A Little Piece of History: If the Phillies represent the NL for the third consecutive season, they will be the first three-peat NL Champs since 1944 (Cardinals). It's kind of an odd little piece of trivia, but the National League has not featured many true "dynasty"-type ballclubs, with the ability to go the distance year after year after year. Even the Big Red Machine of the '70s couldn't manage three in a row, nor could the Bob Gibson's Cardinals or the We Are Family Pirates. No NL team in the integration era has done it, so it would be a pretty major accomplishment.
- Injury Sminjury: Most of the time, when a team that is expected to contend fails to do so, the explanation is a rash of ill-timed injuries. In just this season, that excuse has been pervasively applied to the Red Sox, Rockies, Cubs, and Mets. But arguably no team was more flea-bitten this year than the Phils. Only two players in their starting lineup, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, will manage to make over 150 starts, while their All-Star middle infielders, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, have each been severely limited (less than 120 games apiece). Through it all, the Phillies have not allowed themselves to play like an accursed team and they are going to end up posting their best record since 1993.
- Polly, Ribby, & The Wizard of Oz: Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez, and Roy Oswalt are all long-time major-league veterans who have played in several postseasons and at least one World Series, but haven't yet taken home the ultimate hardware. The big draw of Philadelphia, for each of them, was the realistic opportunity to chase rings. These are, by all accounts, gentlemen, each with underdog qualities - Polanco is a scrappy, undersized utility-man, Ibanez was a late-bloomer, Oswalt is short - and they are difficult to root against.
- Doc Halladay: Now, let me give you your monthly dose of Halladay hysteria. He's definitely the best active pitcher who has never participated in a postseason game. He's one of the greatest of all time. He came to Philadelphia last winter confronted with the utmost of expectations. With the vaunted Philadelphia offense, he was expected to win 20+ games. Without the designated hitter, he was expected to throw 250+ innings and have an ERA under 2.50. And, with his long history of playing in the AL East, he was expected to be Philadelphia's best weapon against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays in the World Series. Well, he just threw a complete-game shutout to clinch the NL East. In the process, he picked up his 21st win, his 251st inning, and brought his ERA to 2.43. In the 64 years since baseball was integrated, there have been only 47 seasons of that quality. So, those were some pretty high expectations. Now, he's going after the biggest of all.
Much as I love Doc, I don't think I can root for a reigning champ; that is, unless they come up against the other reigning champ, which is obviously where the Vegas money is being laid. So, the Phils get a little boost for being the most likely dragonslayer.
Narrative Likability Factor: C+
Sunday, September 26, 2010
"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers
If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity. If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October. This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:
- Performance Impairing Drugs: Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year. Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports. The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business. This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
- The Painted Man: Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse. Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction. The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006. He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field. When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game. And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for. The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
- They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates: The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago. The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
- Big Daddy: Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame. But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal. Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season. But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role. The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter. Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI. He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
- AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday. When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show. Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League. He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
- The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history. That is, until recently. Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch. Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution. Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998. They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings. The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego. The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster. Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League. These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
- They're Due: There are thirty MLB franchises. Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961. Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series. They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99). Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters. Texas got nothing. Nada. So they're due.
Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials. They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres. They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups. Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL). With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen. All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays). Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.
Narrative Likability: A+
R.I.P. 2010 Rockies?
Most obituaries for the Rockies season will probably lead with the fact that coming off a 13-2 stretch which helped them climb to within a game of the division lead, they dropped three in a row to the Arizona Diamondbacks, a last place team that is playing without their best hitter (Justin Upton) and has a decimated starting rotation (having lost Brandon Webb to injury and traded away Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson).
This is certainly a logical place to begin, however, I'm going to focus instead on the stretch in mid-July, just following the All-Star Break when the Rox dropped 11 of 13. At that time, they had also just completed a hot stretch which had moved them to within a game of first place, but they proceeded to lose four straight series, not only to good teams like the Phillies and Reds, but also to bottom-feeders like the Marlins and Pirates. We are reminded ad nauseum this time of year that "every game counts," and the Rockies will probably be haunted by that axiom this winter as much as any team.
When they were still hanging around .500 at the end of July, we were reminded again and again of the team's propensity for late-season heroics. And, sure enough, when September began they reeled off a ten-game winning streak. But, alas, that wasn't enough. What really doomed the Rockies was not the D-Backs sweep or this past weekend's tough losses in a hard-fought series with the division-leading Giants. What doomed the Rockies were those eight blown saves they posted in April and May while they were waiting for Huston Street to come off the D.L. Also of crucial importance were those 15 starts that got handed to Greg Smith (6.23 ERA) and Esmil Rogers (6.47 ERA) while Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jeff Francis were on the shelf. We might also point out that losing streak in July corresponded with Troy Tulowitzki's rather serious wrist injury.
So, the Rockies, who many, including myself, favored to win the NL West this season, will not be returning to the postseason. Still, there are some good things to take away from their 2010 campaign:
Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez may qualify as the two biggest breakout players in the National League. CarGo threatened to make a run at the Triple Crown before Albert Pujols took a commanding lead in homers during the final month. He'll get MVP consideration, but will likely lose some votes to his teammate, Tulowitzki, and be penalized by some voters for his drastic home/road splits. Nevertheless, he became a star during his age 24 season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2012.
Jimenez, who the Rockies wisely signed to a long-term deal prior to the season, will also get considerable support during the awards voting. Presumably, those that believe that Coors Field was too friendly to Gonzalez will be mighty impressed by Ubaldo's 9-1 record, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.23 ERA in the thin air. He was even better on the road (10-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Tulowitzki is still making a run at the all-time record for homers in the month of September. He's currently two back of Babe Ruth and Albert Belle (17). His spectacular hot stretch - 1070 OPS, 18 HR, 61 RBI in 54 games since returning - must be a major relief to the Colorado brass, as wrist injuries often leave hitters sapped of their power for several seasons after they are fully healed (i.e. Derrek Lee, David Ortiz). Tulo's was mild by comparison and he is clearly no longer feeling any ill effects.
Colorado has also found a solid young starter to plug in behind Jimenez and De La Rosa. Since being promoted to the rotation permanently at the beginning of August, Jhoulys Chacin has gone 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 IP.
This was probably the first year that Colorado fans truly expected their team to be contenders, so it can't help but be disappointing to see them falling short in September, especially to teams with considerable flaws like San Diego and Atlanta. However, there are many competitive season left for this incarnation of the Rox. I expect to see them playing postseason baseball again very soon.
When they were still hanging around .500 at the end of July, we were reminded again and again of the team's propensity for late-season heroics. And, sure enough, when September began they reeled off a ten-game winning streak. But, alas, that wasn't enough. What really doomed the Rockies was not the D-Backs sweep or this past weekend's tough losses in a hard-fought series with the division-leading Giants. What doomed the Rockies were those eight blown saves they posted in April and May while they were waiting for Huston Street to come off the D.L. Also of crucial importance were those 15 starts that got handed to Greg Smith (6.23 ERA) and Esmil Rogers (6.47 ERA) while Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jeff Francis were on the shelf. We might also point out that losing streak in July corresponded with Troy Tulowitzki's rather serious wrist injury.
So, the Rockies, who many, including myself, favored to win the NL West this season, will not be returning to the postseason. Still, there are some good things to take away from their 2010 campaign:
Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez may qualify as the two biggest breakout players in the National League. CarGo threatened to make a run at the Triple Crown before Albert Pujols took a commanding lead in homers during the final month. He'll get MVP consideration, but will likely lose some votes to his teammate, Tulowitzki, and be penalized by some voters for his drastic home/road splits. Nevertheless, he became a star during his age 24 season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2012.
Jimenez, who the Rockies wisely signed to a long-term deal prior to the season, will also get considerable support during the awards voting. Presumably, those that believe that Coors Field was too friendly to Gonzalez will be mighty impressed by Ubaldo's 9-1 record, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.23 ERA in the thin air. He was even better on the road (10-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Tulowitzki is still making a run at the all-time record for homers in the month of September. He's currently two back of Babe Ruth and Albert Belle (17). His spectacular hot stretch - 1070 OPS, 18 HR, 61 RBI in 54 games since returning - must be a major relief to the Colorado brass, as wrist injuries often leave hitters sapped of their power for several seasons after they are fully healed (i.e. Derrek Lee, David Ortiz). Tulo's was mild by comparison and he is clearly no longer feeling any ill effects.
Colorado has also found a solid young starter to plug in behind Jimenez and De La Rosa. Since being promoted to the rotation permanently at the beginning of August, Jhoulys Chacin has gone 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 IP.
This was probably the first year that Colorado fans truly expected their team to be contenders, so it can't help but be disappointing to see them falling short in September, especially to teams with considerable flaws like San Diego and Atlanta. However, there are many competitive season left for this incarnation of the Rox. I expect to see them playing postseason baseball again very soon.
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