Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)

I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true.  If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount.  Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter.  With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.  FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million.  Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason.  Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.  

Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution.  The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw.  Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier.  Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla.  Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.

Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...

Premium Free Agents:

1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland.  Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers.  Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher.  Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season.  Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)

2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox 

Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide.  Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era."  Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position.  He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games.  And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates.  The bidding will be steep.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)

3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools.  He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm.  He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year.  There is reason to be cautious.  We may have just witnessed his peak.  That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross.  And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)

4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal.  However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma.  Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark?  Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years?  Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)?  There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million).  Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)

5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009.  His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger.  I would say, the hate was too great.  Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future.  All the while he's continued to hit moonshots.  76 of them during his two years in Washington.  Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more.  With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason.  The Big Donkey is not without his charms.  He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003.  And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.

As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame.  Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation.  However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%).  He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002).  He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware.  And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice).  For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game.  But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member).  That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)

6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets

Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season.  To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact).  Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops.  To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for.  By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller.  Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game.  That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)

7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)

Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

I'm a serious Huff fan.  I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year.  But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year.  Huff looked fantastic in 2010.  He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign.  He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career.  Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career.  (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.)  So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them.  The potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

8. Paul Konerko (First Base)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals

Um...ditto?

Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago.  He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far.  I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings.  Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)

9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position.  I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call.  All have substantial risk with moderate upside.  Four things are working against all these guys.  1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters.  2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.).  3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations.  4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.

Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners

Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter.  It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him.  His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady.  Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field.  One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.

On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time.  He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09.  He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season.  Maybe he never will.  If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September.  If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011.  In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.

Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...

Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

FireJoeMorgan.com About To Go The Way Of FireEricBruntlett.com?

The biggest news so far this offseason may be the prompt dismissal of the longest-tenured national broadcast team in professional baseball, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan.  There have long been objections to Morgan's stubborn subjectivity and frequent bouts of megalomania masquerading as nostalgia, but ESPN finally pulled the plug following a second failed attempt at enlivening the broadcast with some fresh blood. In 2009, they temporarily turned to Steve Phillips, with hilarious results.  One might even surmise that the weekly public emasculations drove Phillips into the arms of Bristol interns.  This year the network forced Orel "Bulldog" Hershiser upon the Un-Dynamic Duo.  Living up to his nickname, I'd say Hershiser held his ground, defending himself calmly and articulately against Morgan's tendency to contradict everything he had to say with condescension and even vitriol.  I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldog is back in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth in 2011, alongside some new partners.  Although I've been watching Sunday Night broadcasts on mute for most of the last half-decade, I will admit feeling a slight pang when reading the announcement.  Miller and Morgan were beloved figures in my childhood, before I realized that Morgan's color commentary had about as much variety as a Speak 'N' Spell.  And, although I find his pandering unfortunate (but probably necessary), I still find Miller to be a fine radio-style play-by-play man with a soothing voice.  They won't be missed, but they will be remembered.    

Jhonny Come Lhately

The free agent sweepstakes got started this week with a relatively underwhelming deal for Jhonny Peralta (2 Years/$11.25 Million with a $7 Million option for '13).  Peralta did a satisfactory job for Detroit after being acquired at the deadline.  His defense at shortstop is certainly suspect.  With Peralta and Carlos Guillen in the middle infield, the Tigers might want to consider employed a "rover" to stand behind the second base bag.  But Peralta can hit a little.  By wrapping him up, alongside the rangy Brandon Inge, the Tigers have at least bought themselves some payroll certainty so they can concentrate on replacing Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon, and perhaps give Miguel Cabrera a little lineup protection.  Detroit is finally out from under the strangulating contracts they gave to Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson.  All told, their commitments could drop as much as 50% from '10 to '11, so Dombrowski may again be a player this winter.  With Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello fronting a potentially dominant rotation, the Tigers may not be that far from contending in their mediocre division.

SPH S.S.S. Update

Those who followed my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey may be interested to know that no fewer than five of the eight participants will be free agents this winter.  It would've been six had it not been for the Dodgers eagerness to wrap up Ted Lilly before he got a chance to test the market (3 yrs./$33 Million).  Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, and Jeff Francis will all likely be pushed into single-season, incentive-laden deals, since none of them were able to prove themselves healthy before the end of the year.  Freddy Garcia, on the other hand, threw over 150 innings before being shut down with a minor back injury in September.  He was far from dominant, but could be very tempting for teams interested in a cheap innings-eater to slot in to the back of their youthful rotation.  Detroit could be a logical fit, in fact, as could Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis, or Washington.  

The most interesting player from amongst the survey participants is definitely Jeremy Bonderman.  Bonderman ended the year poorly, but showed flashes of his former potential and did not make any return trips to the D.L.  He's still in his twenties and was once among the most promising young players in the A.L.  New scenery could be good for him, as will another year of remove from his injury.  Perhaps he's ready for the Dave Duncan treatment in 2011?

B-Stars

It'll be several months before Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, and Adrian Beltre have all signed and we can start identifying potential steals from amongst this free agent class, but I'd direct your attention to a couple underrated players hitting the market.

Miguel Olivo's production fell off the table in the second half, to the extent that it almost looks like he might've been playing through an injury.  But Olivo really should've been the NL starter at the All-Star Game, after hitting .325 with 11 HR and a 925 OPS in his first three months with Colorado.  His inability to maintain that pace isn't too surprising, but Olivo has definitely proved himself an outstanding game-caller and thrower, who is also a better than average hitter for his position.  Catchers of his caliber are truly rare, yet he's been consistently overlooked (which happens when you play for Florida and Kansas City).  I expect he could be a good fit for the Reds, Mets, Mariners, or Rangers.

The Peralta signing is explained in part by the fact that the middle infield class is very weak this year.  As such, this may finally be the winter that Orlando Hudson gets the multiyear deal he so richly deserves.  O-Dog was clearly beloved by his Minnesota teammates.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he agrees to return.  He was the eighth most valuable second-baseman in 2010, worth more than $12 Million according to FanGraphs for the second year in the row.  Despite the consistency of his production (with one minor hiccup during an injury-plagued 2008), Hudson has had to accept a succession of one-year deals for much less than he's worth.  The Cubs, Astros, Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, and Twins all need to fill gaping holes at second base and the only other free agents who play there are utilitymen like Felipe Lopez, David Eckstein, Bill Hall, and Cristian Guzman.  Hudson might finally have the bargaining leverage he needs.

Irrational Derek Jeter Love/Hate vs. Scott Rolen

The Yankee Captain's underwhelming 2010 season has made the controversy surrounding his impending free agency all the more stressful for Yankee fans...and entertaining for the rest of us.

Already the negotiations have begun in the media, with the House of Steinbrenner vowing not to pay for milestones and sentimentality, and Jeter's agent, Casey Close, reminding them that the Captain's "impact cannot be overstated."  In my view, the more rounds of shenanigans the better.  But there's really only one possible outcome, right?  Who else could be interested in a 37-year-old, defensively-challenged shortstop coming off the worst season of his career and demanding at least an eight-figure salary?  Not my team (I hope).

I am, of course, an avowed Jeter-hater.  My spite correlates more or less exactly in its excess to the hyperbolic man-love that originates from the Bronx and is spews almost daily from the mouths of self-righteous Jeter-ites like Joe Morgan and Joe Buck.  If there weren't such a willful ignorance on the part of the pro-Jeter camp, denying even his most glaring flaws and suggesting he ranks not only among the elite of his era, but is somehow among the best ever, I wouldn't feel obligated to write snarling anti-Jeter rants each and every year.

Can't we be reasonable?  I, at least, am willing to try.  What I want to know is, personal preferences aside, what is Derek Jeter's actual value on the open market?  In order to establish that, we'll need to start by looking at some similar players who've tested the free agent market in the decade since Jeter signed his last contract.

For starters, there's Miguel Tejada.  He's almost exactly the same age as Jeter.  He's been reluctant to accept the fact he's no longer a "Gold Glove" shortstop.  As recently as 2009 he had a year in which he was among the league leaders in hitting (.313) as well as several other categories.  But, in 2010, his production dropped off the table, as he posted a 692 OPS, the worst since his rookie season.  Sounds familiar, right?  Like Jeter, Tejada is a free agent and you can bet, whatever suitors he has (if any), they aren't going to be discussing anything bigger than the $6 Million, one-year deal he had in 2010.

Even I will grant, however, that Derek Jeter is worth more than Miguel Tejada, and not just because of his "intangibles."  Like Tejada, Jeter possesses great bat control, the ability to hit to all fields, sporadic power, and a great knack for situational hitting.  Unlike Tejada, he also has decent speed and a more selective approach, which will help him continue to be an acceptable top-of-the-order hitter, even as some other aspect of his game deteriorate.  Also, although the difference is probably minimal, and not supported by the limited sample size from this season, Jeter is still a noticeably better shortstop than Tejada, at least a more sure-handed one.  And Jeter's athletic skills, especially his speed and his instinct for tracking flyballs, suggest that when he's ready to accept a change of position, the Yankees will have options and Jeter have a better chance of adapting.  While I don't think the comparison is as unfair as Yankee fans would like to believe, Jeter has an apparent edge over Miggy on both sides of the ball.

With few other players playing shortstop at such a late stage in their career, it is necessary to look at other positions for comparable players.  It is at this point when we come to Scott Rolen.  I have to admit, this caught me completely off guard.  On the surface, it's kind of strange comparison.  The natural assumption is that these guys are opposites.  Jeter hits for average, Rolen for power.  Jeter steals bases, Rolen drives in runs.  Jeter is an ironman, Rolen is brittle.  Jeter is gregarious, Rolen is shy.  Jeter plays a mediocre shortstop (if we're being kind), Rolen plays an exceptional third base.  Jeter is a lifelong Yankee, Rolen's already got four franchises on his resume.  

However, when you look closer, you see they've been running more or less parallel as players for nearly two decades.  Jeter is nine months older than Rolen.  Both broke in at age 21, and both won the Rookie of the Year award (Jeter in the AL in '96.  Rolen in the NL in '97.).  They've both been frequent All-Stars (Jeter 11, Rolen 6).  They've both won Gold Gloves (Jeter 4, Rolen 7).  They've both come close to the MVP, but never won it.  They both played their prime seasons with the powerhouse franchise in their league.  And, although you may not have realized it, they are both amongst the premier players of their generation.

From '97 (Rolen's rookie season, Jeter's sophomore season) to the recently completed campaign, they rank #5 and #6 in Wins Above Replacement.  Those in front of them are of impressive ilk:

1. Alex Rodriguez 93.2 (6.7 per season)

2. Barry Bonds 86.5 (7.9)

3. Albert Pujols 83.8 (8.4)

4. Chipper Jones 71.5 (5.1)

5. Derek Jeter 67.9 (4.9)

6. Scott Rolen 66.6 (4.8)

Here's how the pair stack up in some other popular metrics:

                      AVG  OPS  OPS+ WPA

Derek Jeter    .314    837    119    31.6

Scott Rolen    .284    867    124    31.1

That's a pretty remarkable similarity.  And, it should also be noted, it's a pretty remarkable accomplishment to be rated in this class.  Some of the guys who fall just behind them are notable: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guererro, Jim Thome, etc.  You may not have realized that Rolen belonged in such company.  (And I was reluctant to admit that Jeter did.)  One might be tempted to suggest that Rolen has been more valuable than Jeter over the course of his career because he's gotten to nearly the same WAR, but with less playing time (mainly due to injuries).  Jeter's WAR per 162 game is 5.18, Rolen's is 5.85.  That's a specious argument, of course, considering Rolen's shortened seasons (particularly '05 and '07) came at a severe cost to the Cardinals.

But Rolen's fragility has been somewhat exaggerated.  He's only had one season with fewer than 100 games started and he's averaged over 550 plate appearances per season during his 14-year career.  Whatever lingering damage there is to his shoulder and back, it has only cost him a few weeks over the last two seasons and certainly hasn't kept him from being productive when he's in the lineup.

In 2010, Rolen was the cleanup hitter on a team that led the National League in almost every offensive category.  He was the protection for MVP-candidate, Joey Votto, making his role an especially crucial one for the Reds.  He was a clubhouse leader and again played exceptional defense at third base (his 10.6 UZR ranked third in the NL).  He made just over $11 Million, but, according to FanGraphs, was worth over $20 Million.  Perhaps, as Matt Klaassen has said of Jeter's 2009, this was the "Last Great Season from a great player."  If so, the Reds may live to regret the $13 Million extension they gave Rolen prior to his 2010 campaign.  But, at $6.5 Million per season, Walt Jocketty has left plenty of room to get his money's worth, even assuming a relatively rapid late-30s decline.

Jeter was, again, according to FanGraphs, worth less than $10 Million in 2010 (but more than $6.5).  But, I can already hear pinstriped protestations, "The things Jeter does cannot be quantified."  Okay, let's talk about some things which can't be quantified.  

1.) Jeter is, of course, Captain Intangible, but Rolen isn't exactly a clubhouse cancer.  Walt Jocketty surprised almost everybody in 2009 when he went to great lengths to acquire the aging cornerman and then extended him only a few months later.  Jocketty and Dusty Baker clearly wanted Rolen to be the veteran presence on their young team and thusfar that gamble has paid off handsomely, with the Reds first trip to the postseason in nearly two decades.  Also, Jocketty's avid pursuit of Rolen makes a big statement about who was at fault during the falling out between the third baseman and Tony La Russa when all were with St. Louis.  Jeter and Rolen are both clearly good "chemistry" guys.

2.) Rolen still plays third base at well above par.  There is no reason to believe he'll have to change positions anytime in the near future and probably will retire still at the hot corner.  He provides exactly what you expect from his position - some power, run production, and decent average.  On the other hand, the Yankees must know Jeter is going to stop being an everyday shortstop soon, probably should've happened already.  Not only is there an awkward "Cal Ripken situation" brewing in the Bronx, but even if Jeter eventually accepts a move, it could start a chain reaction of difficult decisions.  Where will he go?  Who else will need to be moved to accommodate the switch?  How will this effect morale?  How will it effect the Yankee defense?  Will he provide enough offense to be a corner infielder, corner outfielder, or DH?  If not, how with the Yankees compensate and how much will they have to spend on that compensation?  Resigning Jeter has potential costs well beyond just the value of the contract.

3.) Although it's quite clear based on the above WAR standings that Rolen has had an extremely impressive career, he's not developed the HOF-caliber cache of Jeter (or anybody else on that list).  Nobody come to the Great American Ballpark with the hopes of catching one last glimpse of Scott Rolen.  They don't ask for their money back when Baker gives Rolen a day off.  Nobody is going to be scalping tickets in order to profit from Rolen's pursuit of 2000 hits or 500 doubles.  When Rolen can no longer produce better than the Reds other options at third base, he will no longer be their third baseman.  At that point, he will either be forced to accept a reduced role or retire.  Can the same things be said of Jeter?  If Joe Girardi decides the Captain is best suited to a super-utility role which gives him three or four starts a week, will Jeter accept it?  Will New York fans?

4.) Steinbrennerdom might say they aren't interested in "milestones," but you can be damn sure they're interested in the millions of dollars in revenue Jeter's pursuit of 3,000 hits and beyond will inevitably generate.  Those "milestones" mean ticket sales, memorabilia sales, television ratings, advertising sales, etc., etc.  Jeter deserves to be compensated accordingly.  I may not understand why he's so popular, but I don't dispute that he is, and popular players are profitable players.  However, the profit motive in this case does not necessarily correlate with the Yankees oft-stated top priority: winning.  Moreover, if the Yankees have proved anything during the last two decades, it's that winning is profitable.  In fact, putting the best team on the field, even if it doesn't include Jeter, might be the quickest and most efficient way to profit.

Jeter's contractual negotiations bring a lot of factors to the table which Rolen's frankly did not.  Even if you are compelled to believe, as I do, that they are comparable offensive players and that Rolen is the superior defensive player, you still have to give Jeter a bonus for his durability and his "brand."  I believe, that if the baseball market were truly perfect, in the Milton Friedman sense, Jeter would get paid  20-25% more than Rolen, at most.  Of course, it isn't perfect, and based on this year's performance, there's a strong likelihood that Rolen is actually underpaid, as he has been for much of his career.

If Rolen had waited until now to negotiate his extension with the Reds, he could've reasonably ended up making about what he made each of the last four seasons ($11 Million/Yr.), probably for the next two, with some incentives and some sort of option for a third.  I think this makes Buster Olney's prediction of 3 yrs./$45 Million for Jeter seem pretty reasonable, perhaps even generous...if this were a perfect market situation.    

But, as one last comparison and point of curiosity, I'd like to know how much each player has made per Win Above Replacement up to this point:

Jeter: $2,930,528 / WAR
Rolen: $1,549,450 / WAR

I think that satisfactorily dispels any notion of a perfect baseball market.

The Giants & The Beanstalk

Although I certainly would've preferred the World Series to run on a little longer with a little better showing from the Rangers, as I've probably made quite clear, I'm very satisfied with this result.  The Giants are a "fairytale" team.  And, every once in awhile, baseball needs a fairytale champion.  Sadly, the ratings were bad, as the casual fan was less likely to be familiar with the narratives of these players and the history of these teams, which was a large part of what made them interesting.  But by winning the World Series for the first time in half a century, during a season when few people picked them to finish better than second or third in their division, the Giants dignified that optimism which inspires fans every March and April: "With a few good breaks, with a few smart decisions, this could be our year."

This is a big part of why the Rangers/Giants matchup was "good for baseball," even if it wasn't good for Fox Corp (and, by the way, fuck what's good for Fox Corp).  Baseball thrives on the performance of the underdog.  Let's face it, it's only the first of November and we already know there are less than half a dozen teams with a chance of winning the NBA title next June.  March Madness consists of 64 teams, but we all know less than a quarter of those have even the slightest chance.  The NFL thrives on the rhetoric of competitive balance (and rhetoric whose main aim is to somehow dignify an inhumane labor policy), but nearly half the teams in their league have never won a Super Bowl.  Baseball has had nine champions in the last ten seasons.  Two of those champions were first-time winners (Angels & D-Backs) and three had waited more than a generation (ChiSox, BoSox, & Giants).  One could easily argue that, on that basis, there's more balance in baseball than in any other sport, even though it doesn't have a salary cap and hopefully never will.

So, there's the good, but, frankly, I've had enough optimism.  The fact is, although I thoroughly enjoyed this season and these playoffs, now it's all over, and that inevitably puts me in a sour mood.  Here are some reasons why this season sucks:

1.) Yankee Fans

From the meathead bigot who slapped Nelson Cruz's glove during the NLCS to the jackasses that spit on Cliff Lee's wife.  Yankee fandom has reached a new nadir.  Maybe it's the fact that Hank and Hal are sleazier and more entitled than their old man (who would've thought it possible).  Maybe it's the fact that the new stadium is an overpriced, simulacrum haven for Caucasians.  Maybe it's the fact that the pinstriped ethos has turned soulful players like C. C. Sabathia, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson into stilted shadows of their former selves.  Whatever the cause, the Yankees are more despicable than ever, and the widespread ignorance and arrogance of their supporters may be the main reason why.  Enjoy the rapid decline of A-Rod and the "Core Four."  You deserve it.

2.) Brian Sabean

I think my position on the likability of this team is pretty well documented, but the Giants GM was very fortunate that a strategy which looks a hell of a lot like a desperate shot in the dark actually paid off.  Sabean, baseball's longest tenured GM, has a few things to hang his hat on.  The Giants have drafted well.  They've developed young pitchers as well as any franchise in the sport.  They've got a great ballpark and a very supportive fanbase, despite a great deal of controversy and the number of crappy teams they've fielded during the last decade.  However, by winning the 2010 World Series, the Giants players basically got Sabean off the hook for what has been a pretty embarrassing stretch of acquisitions, dating back to the infamous Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser for one year of A. J. Pierzynski trade in 2003.  As I discussed in my previous post, this team is on the hook for some really bad contracts: Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa top the list.  And those are just the ones that are still on the books.  Resigning Bengie Molina was patently absurd.  One can argue that Edgar Renteria justified his ridiculous contract with a World Series MVP, by remember how much money the Giants paid to other over-the-hill veterans like Randy Winn, Rich Aurilia, and Dave Roberts.  All are likable players, all were at one point productive, but not so much when Sabean was paying them.  Sabean's fiscal record is among the worst in the sport.  Will winning buy the Bay Area hundreds of millions more dollars in bad contracts?

3.) Seth Everett

I can't possibly do any better than to direct you to the recent "re-reunion" of Fire Joe Morgan, but at a time when research is getting easier, access is more abundant, and competition is fierce, mainstream media commentators are somehow growing more incompetent.  Peter Pascarelli isn't exactly a baseball genius, but they replaced him on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast with an asinine self-promotor named Seth Everett who made the show pretty much unlistenable.  By host Eric Karabell's own admission, his podcast is made specifically for rabid baseball fans, yet Everett frequently exposes an ignorance of the sport to the point of not knowing which player is on which team and babbles on incessantly about his personal life, which is about as interesting as the underside of the refrigerator and should be as inaccessible.  The Baseball Today situation may be a synechdoche for the problems which abound throughout the baseball media.  Pascarelli was fired because he made a relatively mild joke about the new statue of Bud Selig in Milwaukee.  The iron hand of MLB has made good journalists weary of being critical, objective, candid, witty, and spontaneous when it comes to coverage of their sport.  And thus we're left with the smug, insubstantial musings of half-wits like Everett and his ilk.

4.) Backlash Against Defensive Sabermetrics

One of the major stories of last offseason was the attempt, especially by forward-thinking GMs like Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Jack Zduriencik, to build their rosters around defensive efficiency, measured in part by things like UZR, the Fielding Bible, and no doubt many other in-house statistics.  Unfortunately, none of these teams made extraordinary leaps in the standings in the wake of this strategy.  In fact, quite the opposite.  The Red Sox, though still a solid team, dropped six wins from 2009 and finished out of the postseason for the first time since 2006.  The Mariners, following an optimism-inducing 85-win campaign in '09, dropped to 61 wins, one of the worst records in baseball.  And though the Athletics managed to get to .500 for the first time since '06, they remained well short of contention.  Anti-sabermetric pundits will use this opportunity to berate us for thinking that defense is measurable.  The truth is, Boston's season was derailed by injuries, Zduriencik couldn't possibly have predicted how bad his team would be offensively (historically bad), and a closer look at Oakland (forthcoming) suggest that Beane's approach has some legitimacy.  In all likelihood, however, that's not how the story will be treated during this offseason.

5.) Chicago Cubs Still Chicago Cubs

This one hurts.  The Cubs got back to losing in 2010 and not only that, they got back to losing in sensational and humiliating fashion.  They had the largest payroll in the National League, yet they managed to finish fifth in their division, behind even the Houston Astros, who started the season by going 16-33 and then traded away two of their best players.  The Cubs best (and most expensive) pitcher got demoted to the bullpen, than suspended from the team, and now his future may no longer be in Chicago.  The three best (and most expensive) hitters were all busts, looking old, slow, and brittle.  The $136 Million prize, Alfonso Soriano, had the same WAR (2.9) as Denard Span.  He has four years left on his contract, at $18 Million per annum (in other words, for the same price we could probably have Carl Crawford).  Lou Pinella "retired," but the new ownership, for some unknown reason, still hasn't gotten around to firing Jim Hendry, who has presided over the creation of this mess, apparently in perpetuity.  Now they've got a rookie manager, very little payroll flexibility, and a stacked division.  The decade just began, but it already looks like this might not be the one in which we'll finally break the curse.  Congrats to San Francisco, Boston, and the White Sox.  It's getting very lonely in Loserville.

Do the Giants need this more?

Let me first emphasize that I don't believe this series is over.  Cliff Lee will take the mound against Tim Lincecum tonight in a rematch of a much-anticipated Game One which turned out to be anything but a pitcher's duel.  Something tells me less than 18 runs will be scored this time around.  Are the Rangers capable of winning three in a row?  Of course they are.  But, at least at this point, they've been absolutely dominated.  The Giants look like they want it more.  And, although I usually abhor observations like that, here's why it might be true.

The Expendables are not going to be around next year.  They are, by nature, expendable.  While the Rangers core, with the notable exception of Cliff Lee, is wrapped up for years to come, the wily veterans on the Giants know their time together is coming to an end.  Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, Jose Guillen, and nearly all of the productive middle relievers in the Giants bullpen will be free agents this offseason.  Huff, Burrell, and Uribe will all be far more enticing than they were a year ago.  As a result, they will all, presumably, be looking for multiyear deals for significantly more money than they earned from the Giants this season.  In other words, they won't all be back...and perhaps none of them will.

And while Brian Sabean clearly has a lot to be proud of right now, he must know that the offseason, even if it begins with some long-awaited celebrating, is going to be a tough one financially.  The Giants have committed more than $38 Million in 2011 to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa.  Zito will be, at best, their fifth starter next season, and wasn't considered good enough by Bruce Bochy to even gain a spot on the playoff roster.  Rowand has become a very expensive fourth outfielder.  And, DeRosa, though a productive player as recently as 2009, is a 36-year-old coming off of major wrist surgery (wrist injuries have a notoriously long rehab process, sometimes years).

So, basically, that's well over a third of San Francisco's payroll that's sunk before the season even begins.  Add to it that they face potentially expensive arbitration hearings for Jonathan Sanchez, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross, as well as the significant and well-deserved raises coming to Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson, and what we have is a franchise that will by nearing their current payroll limit (~$100 Million) before they even attempt to deal with the free agent market.

The Giants do have a few things to hang their hats on.  There's no reason to believe that Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez won't continue to be one of the most dominant trios of starting pitchers in the game.  Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner had exceptional rookie campaigns and should be under the franchises control for many years to come.  Pablo Sandoval, widely regarded as the Giants best position player when the year began, suffered a season-long slump, but could well be due for a rebound in 2011.  But that observation also begs the question: Can Posey and Bumgarner avoid a similar sophomore slump?  Can Andres Torres prove that he's not a fluke after having a breakout season at the age of 30?  Are Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez the dominant setup men they were in 2010, or was there due cause for their previous teams to give up on them?

The Rangers have Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Elvis Andrus.  They've got Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Neftali Feliz.  They've got one of the deepest and most promising pools of young pitching in the game, with guys like Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Tommy Hunter, Dustin Nippert, and Tanner Scheppers.  And they've still got high-end hitting prospects like Chris Davis and Max Ramirez.  They've got new ownership with deeper pockets and lots of payroll flexibility because they've got no bad contracts currently on the books.  There is really no reason to believe that Texas cannot be right back in the postseason next year and for several years to come, with or without Cliff Lee.

The Giant, on the other hand, are, for better or worse, a patchwork team.  They've got a solid foundation of starting pitching, but all season long Sabean has been getting by with what amounts to duct tape and putty.  If that structure holds together for just a few more days, they Giants will win their first World Series in half a century.  But, this house has not been built to survive the winter, and everybody in the San Francisco clubhouse knows it.  

If You Aren't Worried About the Giants Ability to Score Runs, You Aren't Really a Giants Fan

The Giants 20-run eruption in the first two games of the World Series has spawned a flurry of righteous San Franciscans to bombard the mainstream media comment boards and call-in shows with juvenile "I told you so" hysterics, claiming that the popular prediction by baseball pundits, that the Giants would struggle to score runs, is somehow evidence of ineptitude and "East Coast bias."  There are plenty of reasons to make such claims; however, this is not one of them.

I will point out that I was not among the multitude who published such a prediction, but only because I believe that it's so utterly obvious that it fails to qualify as meaningful analysis.  So-called Giants fans are objecting to tautological platitudes.  Really!?!  Is that worthy of your outrage?  The Giants offensive woes have been well-documented and continuous.  They haven't scored 700 runs in a season since 2006.  (The Rangers, as an alternative example, haven't failed to score 700 runs since 1995.)  This 20-run explosion is an outlier of extraordinary proportions.  Here's a few reasons why:

1.) It took the Giants seven previous postseason games to accumulated as many as twenty runs of offense.

2.) In a 162-game season, they scored twenty runs in a two-game stretch exactly three times.  In those games, the starting pitchers they were facing were guys like Chris Narveson, Manny Parra, and Homer Bailey.

3.) In 170 career starts for San Francisco, Matt Cain's Giants teammates have scored nine or more runs for him on only nine occasions (providing a partial explanation for how a guy with a 3.45 career ERA and a 1.22 WHIP is saddled with a losing record).

4.) The Giants scored 41 fewer runs than any other postseason team in 2010.

If you aren't worried about the Giants ability to score runs, either you haven't been paying attention or you're living in a state of oblivion.  The real Giants fans are, even with their two-game lead, living in anticipation of the spigot being shut off, perhaps permanently.  I heard several anxious utterances during both games to this effect: "Stop scoring, we're going to need some of these runs tomorrow."  This is, of course, a somewhat hilarious baseball superstition, but it indicates exactly how run-starved this team has been.  Unlike Texans, who have come to expect frequent firework displays, Giants fans can't even enjoy a blowout.  It's too unfamiliar.  It feels like a portent of doom.  

The Bengie Molina Factor (World Series Preview)

Mark Simon said on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast yesterday that Bengie Molina will join Lonnie Smith as the only players in baseball history to play in a World Series which featured two teams which both voted them postseason shares.  That means, of course, that Molina's going to get a ring either way, though, no doubt, it will be something of a mixed blessing if it has the Giants logo stamped on it.  Mr. Smith (a.k.a. Skates) ended up on the side of the World Champions and no doubt enjoyed putting it to his former team.  (He hit .333 in the '85 Series, with three doubles, four runs, four RBI, and two steals.  The rookie who inspired the Cardinals to trade him, Vince Coleman, sat out the series with an injury and his replacements, guys like Cesar Cedeno and Andy Van Slyke, struggled mightily (combined 3-for-26).)  So, if the Rangers lose, Molina would be the first to receive a ring for a World Series in which he played for the opposing side.

Even if he goes nuts and wins the World Series MVP, there's probably no way Molina can make the Giants regret trading him.  After all, they don't get this far without finding a way to get Buster Posey in the lineup everyday.  Posey solidified the middle of their lineup throughout the second half and his four hits and two RBI sparked a crucial Game Four win in the NLCS.

That said, nobody knows better than the Giants (and their fans) how streaky Molina can be and how dangerous he is when running hot.  He carried a heavy load this past April, hitting .344 with a .403 OBP at a time when the rest of the offense (even Aubrey Huff) was sputtering and guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, and Cody Ross weren't even on the roster.  But also lingering in the minds of the Giants faithful, including GM Brian Sabean, is certainly the clutch performance Molina put forward the last time they were in the World Series, in 2002.  Problem is, at that time he was also on the opposing team, the Angels.  Molina's overall stats for the '02 Series are solid (.286 AVG, .375 OBP, etc.), but what Giants fans will remember are the two doubles he hit in Game Seven, the first of which tied the game.

Molina has, thusfar this postseason, been running hot.  He hit .333 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and a 922 OPS during the Rangers first two series, highlighted by his huge three-run homer in Game Four of the ALCS.

Of course, Molina's offense is not the only thing he brings to the table.  There is only one player on the Rangers roster who has a significant history with Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain.  And that player, Bengie Molina, has seen more pitches from the trio of Giants hurlers than anybody in the game, having been their primary catcher every since they reached the big leagues.  If there is a functional scouting report for San Francisco's Aces, Molina knows it.

Under Constructions Indefinitely (World Series Preview)

How much can a general manager really do during the season?  Sure, the trade deadline provides an exciting midseason sideshow which sometimes leads to stars changing uniforms, but only on rare occasions (say, C. C. Sabathia in 2008) do those moves really create contenders.  Remember when the Braves acquired Mark Teixeira from the Rangers for a package that included two key players on their World Series roster (Elvis Andrus & Neftali Feliz), as well as two more players who made minor contributions during the 2010 season (Matt Harrison & Jarrod Saltalamacchia).  (You think the Braves might've been a better team this year with Andrus at short and Feliz in the bullpen?)  Teixeira played great down the stretch, but it wasn't enough to push a flawed Atlanta team past the Phillies and the Mets.

Although a GM can certainly contribute by building organizational depth and knowing who to promote and when to promote them, most of their job is done during the offseason.  Look at the Yankees and Phillies for instance.  When the Yankees took the field in the ALCS, they had exactly the lineup New York fans enjoyed on Opening Day, with the exception of Lance Berkman/Marcus Thames being substituted for the injured Nick Swisher.  Ditto for the Phillies.  On their pitching staffs you had a couple notable additions, Roy Oswalt and Kerry Wood, but otherwise they looked much as they had six months ago.  You could make the same observations about the Rays, Reds, Twins, and Braves.

One of the most interesting things about our two World Series contestants is their exceptional roster turnover.  When the managers set their 25-man rosters on Wednesday, both sides will likely feature at least a dozen guys who didn't break camp with the team in April.

For Texas, the top two thirds of the lineup, though they've struggled through injuries to Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, have been crucial to their success.  Thats the core you think about when you think about the Rangers.  The bottom third, however, composed generally of catchers, first basemen, and right-fielders, has been a constant source of stress for Ron Washington.  The Rangers began the season with a bunch of promising young players, many of the former first-round draft picks fighting for these positions - guys like Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Julio Borbon, Max Ramirez, and Chris Davis.  They ended up giving an unfortunate number of at-bats to also-rans like Matt Treanor, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, and Ryan Garko, because several of the kids had trouble finding the Mendoza line.

However, Texas's most drastic renovations came in the rotation.  The Rangers year began with starts by Scott Feldman and Rich Harden, a few days later they turned to Matt Harrison.  If those names aren't familiar to you, that's because none of them made the playoff roster.  Ten pitchers got the chance to start games for Texas in 2010 and only Colby Lewis and C. J. Wilson were constants.  That's not generally a recipe for postseason success, but the Rangers eventually found a rhythm, mainly through the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the promotions of Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland.

The bullpen was a similar work in progress, as Frank Francisco was expected to return as the closer and Chris Ray was going to be one of his key set-up men.  Francisco went on the D.L. after a week and when he returned, Neftali Feliz had taken his spot.  Ray eventually got shipped to San Francisco following the discovery of Alexi Ogando.  All told, though the Texas bullpen was one of the best in the American League, they used fourteen different pitchers for at least ten innings.

The Giants tell basically the opposite story.  Four pitchers made 33 starts, a picture of rotational consistency which is the envy of nearly the entire league.  Only one change was made all year, when 20-year-old rookie Madison Bumgarner replaced Todd Wellemeyer at the end of June.  The bullpen, conceived around closer Brian Wilson and set-up men Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt did have some turnover, as all bullpens do, but the central pieces were always in place and five pitchers threw at least 50 innings.

The lineup, however, was something of a marvel of musical chairs.  Assuming that Bruce Bochy starts the World Series with the defensive alignment he's used through most of the playoffs, it will feature exactly one player, Aubrey Huff, who was in the lineup on Opening Day.  (Freddy Sanchez would've been in there had it not been for a lingering injury.)  Four of the Giants eight starting position players weren't even with the team until June or later.  Here's a comparison of Opening Day and the likely Game One lineup:

Aaron Rowand, CF		Andres Torres, CF
Edgar Renteria, SS		Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Pablo Sandoval, 3B		Aubrey Huff, 1B
Aubrey Huff, 1B		Buster Posey, C
Mark DeRosa, 2B		Pat Burrell, LF
Bengie Molina, C		Cody Ross, RF
John Bowker, RF		Juan Uribe, SS
Nate Schierholtz, LF		Mike Fontenot, 3B
Tim Lincecum, P		Tim Lincecum, P

Bet you didn't recall that the Giants "big" offseason signing was Mark DeRosa.  Ten players got double-digit starts in the Giants outfield in 2010.  The infield provided significant amounts of work for Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Emmanuel Buriss.  Remember them?

Honestly, I haven't yet found one team, let alone two, that did these kind of renovations over the course of their season, yet found their way to the World Series nonetheless.  It helps, of course, that each has a abundant strength - the top of the lineup for Texas, the rotation for San Francisco - but even so, we all know that dominating one aspect of the game isn't enough to make it to the mountaintop.  You've got to give a great deal of credit for these team's opportunities to the in-season creativity of Brian Sabean and Jon Daniels.

The Giants Have Suffered Since They Left New York, The Rangers Have Suffered... (World Series Preview)

All season long it seemed like we were on course for an inevitable collision.  

The reigning World Champion, the Yankees, did little to dispel the notion that they were the team to beat.  Very little had changed following their celebration last October.  They still had the nine-figure talents of A-Rod, Teixeira, and Sabathia.  They had their lucky charms: Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada.  The ever-excellent lineup was perhaps even the slightest bit improved by the acquisition of Curtis Granderson and the continued development of Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner.  

On the other side we had the two-time reigning NL Champs, the Philadelphia Phillies, who still boasted the league's most intimidating lineup, but had also added the league's best pitcher, Roy Halladay.  His greatest appeal for Philadelphia GM, Ruben Amaro, may have been his incredible record against the team that had ousted the Phillies the previous fall.

The Yankees got out of the gates quickly.  They had the best record during the first half, and finished the season just one win short of the AL's top seed.  The Phillies struggled with injuries early, but by going 50-25 after the All-Star Break, they managed to finish with the best record in baseball.  To many, a rematch seemed destined.  Would Doc Halladay be the key to trouncing the Bombers?  Would Sabathia again dominate the lefty-heavy Phillies lineup?  How many big homers would be yielded by the shaky middle relief corps on either side?  

Alas, we got ahead of ourselves...

And it appeared the megaliths did as well.  The Yankees got owned by Colby Lewis, Cliff Lee, and Derek Holland, while the Rangers put up crooked numbers night after night after night.  Texas had a dozen multirun innings against Yankees beleaguered staff.  They hit nine homers and outscored the Bombers by nineteen runs over six games.  Although nobody seem comfortably saying it, this was a flat-out shelling.  In at least half the games, including two in their home ballpark, New York barely showed up.  

In the NL, the vaunted Philadelphia lineup had no answer for Tim Lincecum in Game One, for Matt Cain in Game Three, or for Javier Lopez and Brian Wilson throughout, while the self-described conglomeration of "misfits and castoffs" manufactured runs when they needed them most, led by unlikely hero, Cody Ross, who probably wouldn't have been in the starting lineup had it not been for a neck injury which sidelined Jose Guillen.  But San Francisco hardly dominated.  They were actually outscored by Philadelphia over the course of the NLCS (by one run) and never led any game by more than three.  It was tortuous, to borrow the sentiment of Giants announcer Duane Kuiper which has become the rallying cry of Bay Are fans, but it was enough.

And so, for the first time since 2005, when the White Sox broke the Black Sox curse against the Astros, who were representing the NL for the first time, we have a matchup of two teams who have both been waiting a very long time for some relief.  To me, that's a recipe for excitement.  Sure, in 2005, the White Sox managed an impressive sweep, but every game was decided by two runs or less, and one of them lasted 14 innings.  In 2002, when the Giants faced off with the Angels, who were, like the Rangers, coming off their first AL Pennant, we certainly got our money's worth.  There were for one-run games, including a wild 11-10 slugfest in Game Two.  It was the last time we had a World Series that went to seven games.  

So, the Giants have been here as recently as 2002 (which, of course, really isn't that recent), but they lost, in heartbreaking fashion (famously up 5-0 with eight outs to go).  In 1989 they got swept in the infamous "Quake" series against the Bash Brothers.  In 1962, they lost in seven to the Yankees.  The Giants have never brought the Championship Trophy home to San Francisco, and the franchise hasn't won it period for more than half a century.  Willie Mays was 23-years-old the last time they won in '54.  Willie McCovey never got a ring.  Juan Marichal never got a ring.  Ditto for Will Clark.  And, most famously, Barry Bonds.

The Rangers, an '60s expansion team, had never won a postseason series before this month.  Before this weekend, they were one of only three franchises who had never won a pennant (sorry Mariners and Nationals).  They joined the league as the Washington Senators in 1961, making them easily the oldest team to be making their first trip.  Generally, teams look to mark such occasions by rolling out a roster of the best players in their history for photo-ops and opening ceremonies, but the Rangers history has been so thoroughly mediocre that's it's hard to imagine who, besides Nolan Ryan, would make the guest list.  The hitters who top all the franchise record boards are Ivan Rodriguz, Rafael Palmeiro, and Juan Gonzalez.  Pudge, of course, still plays for the Nationals, so it's hard to imagine him trotting out like an old-timer.  All three have been tainted by the steroid controversy and all left the franchise on relatively bad terms.  But who else do you turn to?  Toby Harrah?  Ruben Sierra?  Don't be surprised if we get to see Kenny Rogers first World Series appearance since the infamous "dirtball" incident in 2007.  Charlie Hough won 139 games for the Rangers, best in franchise history.  That'd barely be good enough for 10th on the Giants list.

San Francisco will, of course, role out a cavalcade of stars.  We'll likely see Hall of Famers like Mays, McCovey, and Marichal.  Perhaps Orlando Cepeda.  Gaylord Perry pitched for both squads.  That might be interesting.  Bonds threw out a first pitch during the NLCS.  Will he return for another engagement with the team that refused to offer him a contract the year after he broke the home-run record?  

Clearly, the Giants have the more impressive history, they've got the more diehard fan base, and, to be fair, they've waited longer.  There are plenty of octogenarians in the AT&T stand who may not be able to handle another heartbreak.  It's probably good news for Giants fans that there isn't a single player on the team who was even in the organization in 2002.  Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were still in high school at the time.

What promises to be great about this matchup in general is that both these teams have proven themselves utterly immune to expectations, pressure, criticism, second-guessing, and outside forces of all variety.  That's partially why, when I gave my Narrative Likability grades prior to the playoffs, these two teams got the highest marks.  I don't expect a whole lot of momentum swings.  These teams don't work like that.  The Rangers suffered one of the most brutal losses in recent postseason history in Game One of the ALCS, as the Yankees game back from five runs down in the eighth inning.  The Rangers followed up on the gutwrenching loss with three straight wins by a combined score of 25 to 5.  In the NLCS, the Giants led for only 43% of the innings.  They easily could have been worn out waiting for the other shoe to drop, but they rallied from behind on three separate occasions to beat a team which literally everybody thought was better than them.

In the next 48 hours I hope to provide a few tidbits and a little provocative analysis regarding The Expendables and The Rangers of Redemption.  I don't know that I've ever been more excited for a World Series. 

BBA Ballot: Stan Musial Award

I'm going to have plenty to say about what I consider the most exciting World Series matchup since at least 2005, but there's plenty of time between now and Game One.  So, to prevent myself from being distracted by the BBA Award deadline, which unfortunately falls during the Series, I'm going to go ahead and get in my ballot for the most valuable position player in each league:

American League:

10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)

Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked.  Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS.  Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did.  Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division.  Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season.  He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.

8. Joe Mauer (Twins)

It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402).  With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations.  Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018?  That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.

7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)

It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista).  Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62).  Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game.  Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy.  This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.

5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)

The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron.  When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy.  The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively.  He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS.  His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.

4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)

The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October.  Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain.  Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.

3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)

Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable.  The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League.  Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots.  Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)

Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32).  Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted.  In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.

1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines.  But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him.  His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season.  He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left.  Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series.  None of that happens without Hamilton.

National League:

10. Andres Torres (Giants)

Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season.  However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun.  Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR.  Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.

9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI.  He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.

8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres.  He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration.  However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth.  Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive.  Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.

7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)

In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup.  This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant.  He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.

6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)

I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago.  I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field.  Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.

5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)

If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three.  Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.

4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)

Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately.  If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year.  Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).

3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another.  In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories.  Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024).  But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others.  You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park.  You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind.  Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed.  You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.

1.) It ain't that easy being Albert.  Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row.  While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them.  This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.

2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman.  For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76).  Again, that's Bonds-esque.

3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position.  And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.  

BBA Ballot: Walter Johnson Award

It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct.  Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle.  In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.

American League:

Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)

5. Jered Weaver (Angels)

For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar.  He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate.  He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop.  Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."

4. David Price (Rays)

By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot.  And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified.  The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one.  What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9).  Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).

3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)

Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers.  Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates.  However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1).  He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws.  At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.

2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)

This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run.  Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay.  I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record.  For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering).  Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay.  Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."

1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)

You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August.  Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award.  But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game.  He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver.  It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.

National League:

Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)

5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)

Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)

We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide.  However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August.  That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1).  Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.

3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)

This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot.  The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP

Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there."  I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)

Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc.  If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently.  For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them.  No easy feat.

Hey, New York, Who's Your Daddy?

As I sat, familiarly flabbergasted, amidst a bar full of equally frustrated strangers, and watched the Yankees deliver a barrage of singles, piling up runs at a tortuously slow pace, as Ron Washington tried pitcher after pitcher in an effort to tourniquet the ridiculous trickle of scoring, I recognized that, despite the fact that C. J. Wilson had absolutely stymied the most infamous lineup in baseball for seven innings and the Rangers had chased New York's only dominant pitcher in four innings, the series might well be over by the end of Game One.  Even if you attempt to adhere to that Curt Schilling credo, that Mystique and Aura are just dancers at a nightclub, you cannot deny that the Yankees have a habit of getting in their opponents heads.  For ages, of course, it was that way with the Red Sox (if you haven't already, hurry over to iTunes and watch ESPN's Four Days In October documentary).  More recently, it's been that way with the Twins.  And, now, I feared, they had the Rangers on their heels, ever waiting for New York to again assert their superiority by doing something truly improbable (like scoring five runs in an inning, off one of the best bullpens in baseball, without hitting an homer, indeed, with the help of only one extra-base hit).  If the Yankees had successfully quelled the Rangers aggressive, can-do spirit, this series would be over in five.

But that didn't happen.

Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky."  In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck.  Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time.  Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line.  Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail.  If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder.  Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks.  That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.

On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson.  When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?"  Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday.  On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.

Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One.  At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games.  Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way.  Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson.  Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six.  Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.

If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee.  In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October.  In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger.  That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs.  As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.

If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.