April showers...

Over the last couple of days in various leagues I have acquired Brandon Phillips, Chris B. Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  One may assume this suggests I've been very actively seeking trades, when in fact all I've had to do is make my daily trip to the waiver wire.  These are some pretty exceptional players to find in the free agent pool and their previous owners will undoubtedly be kicking themselves a few months from now.  Although Brandon Phillips is the extremest example I've every seen, every spring I find myself staring in wonderment at the booty available to me because some sap is too impatient to wait for the inevitable warm weather hot streak from his high-round draft pick.  First and foremost, don't be that guy!!!  Secondly, even if you can't pick up one of these players for the paltry price of Mike Fontenot or Fred Lewis, you may be able to exploit a competitor's impatience via trade.  Here are a few slow-starters I would recommend targeting.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

There is a whole lot of hubbabaloo over at the world-wide leader about how scouts are concerned about David Ortiz.  Those of us with memories longer than six weeks, however, recall a similar stream of Big Papi pessimism last April and May.  In his first 16 games in 2008 Ortiz his .111 with one lonely long ball.  However, from mid-April until he hurt his wrist at the beginning of June, Papi hit .313 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBI in 38 games.  Throughout his career April has been Ortiz's weakest in both AVG and OPS.  Although he still hasn't gone deep in 2009, he is 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and 4 RBI in the last three games.  The numbers are going to be there in August, which means that now is the best possible time to go get him.

Alexei Ramirez - SS - Chicago White Sox

Let's face it, winter in Cuba and winter in Chicago are very different seasons.  Last April the White Sox mysterious off-season acquisition had a laughable 354 OPS.  He took over as the starter at second on May 16.  From that point on he hit .304 with an 833 OPS.  There are probably owners out there who are prepared to declare Alexei a fluke.  The way I see it, his April OPS in 2009 is 60 points higher than in '08 and I think that's a reasonable improvement to expect in the month which follow.

Brandon Phillips - 2B - Cincinnati Reds

I've never disguised my man-crush for Phillips, so my faith shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.  One thing particularly stands out to me about his statistics so far.  He's already taken eleven walks.  In the entirety of '08 he had 39 walks, which was a career high!  When a hitter dedicates himself to working counts he often suffers a slump, but in the long run it facilitates major improvements.  As such, this slump could actually be a good sign for Phillips owners.

    

New York, New York

Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com this morning feature a discussion of the early returns from Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Granted, we shouldn't be quick to judge a park on two weeks in April, but 17 HR and 49 R in three games is enough to make even the most disciplined statistician whistle through his gap teeth. It's even more remarkable when you consider that one of those games started as a pitcher's duel between C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee that was locked in a 1-1 tie through six innings.

Sure part of the Indians 22-run explosion on Saturday can be attributed to the struggles of Chien-Ming Wang (6 IP, 34.50 ERA), who's looked like a batting practice pitcher in each of his last three starts. He got equally pummeled in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly a hitter's haven, and Baltimore last week.

In the long run, if Yankee Stadium continues to play like Coor's Field (or worse!?!), it will have major fantasy repercussions. The stock of Yankee's hitters - already pretty high - goes up, while the stock of Yankee's pitchers goes down. Besides Wang, who shouldn't be starting in any leagues until he proves himself capable of getting past the second inning, I am particularly worried about A. J. Burnett. While Sabathia's flyball rate has been consistently declining in recent years, from 41.0% in 2004 to 31.7% last season, Burnett's is headed in the other direction, from an exceptional 22.3% in 2005 to 32.0% in '08, which may be why he averaged 21 HR allowed in his last two seasons with the Blue Jays. The good news for the Yankees is that both Sabathia and Burnett, as well as Joba Chamberlain, have exceptional strikeout rates, something which should be immune to park factors.

The immediate impact for fantasy owners is that you should consider benching mid-tier starters when they visit the Yankees, something you might have been tempted to do regardless. And while most of the Yankee regulars are already owned in most leagues, you may consider picking up a guy like Melky Cabrera, or trading for guys like Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter, all of whom may be on the verge of an unexpected power spike. Also, visiting players could be good waiver wire acquisitions. For instance, Asdrubel Cabrera, probably unowned in most shallow leagues, went 5-for-8 in two games in New York this week, with a homer, four runs, and five RBI.

Across town, the early observers of Citi Field are predicting it to be considerably advantageous to pitchers. Things may change as the weather warms up, but that could be great news for Oliver Perez. Perez has surrendered 20+ HR in every season since 2003, which is part of the reason we remain skeptical about him in spite of his obvious talent. A subtle decrease in his homer rate could make a big difference in his ERA and win totals. To a lesser extent, the same may be said of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.

While the dimensions of their ballpark will have little to no impact on the value of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, none of whom rely heavily on the homer, it may be the right time to unload Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church. They are both off to hot starts, but Citi may be particularly hard on left-handed power hitters both offer other risks as well. Delgado is, of course, aging, though showing no major indications of decline yet, at 37. Church is an injury risk and in danger of losing at-bats to Gary Sheffield, who is determined to make the Tigers pay for releasing him and is, more importantly, a right-handed power threat, something that the Mets are missing (outside of David Wright). Sheff will almost certainly start against lefties so long as he is healthy and effective, and if he proves he's still the same player he was two years ago, it is only a matter of time before he "demands" full-time player status. In deep leagues, I recommend picking him up RIGHT NOW.

As I said earlier, we should be cautious in making too much of a week's worth of games. However, fantasy leagues are won by being aware of factors that others may not pay attention to.

Everyday, I Love Elijah Dukes

Although Brad Lidge had his way with him with the game on the line in the 9th, Elijah Dukes still had a pretty solid game on Monday, going 2-for-5 with an RBI double and a solo HR. He also made a run-saving catch in deep right on a Ryan Howard line drive. Although Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson were named official starters to begin the season, they have each made 24 plate appearances while Dukes is barely behind with 23. In those at-bats Dukes has equaled their combined production in HR, RBI, and total bases, while hitting .381. And he is undoubtedly the best defensive player of the bunch, featuring the range of a centerfielder and a very strong arm.

If that isn't enough to suggest that the Nationals are invested in Dukes as an everyday player, one need only check out their broadcasts. Washington Nationals promos feature him as prominently as any player, including Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. And they should!!!
Although Dukes played only 81 games in 2008, he lead the team in OPS (864) and walks (50), was only one off the lead in HR (13), and was second in SB (13). With the possible exception of Zimmerman, he is clearly their most promising young offensive threat, a lethal combination of speed, strength, and, notably, plate discipline.

One might expect, considering their are so many questions about his "maturity," that Dukes would be a bit raw in terms of his approach, but quite the opposite is true. In the first 138 games of his MLB career, Dukes has an 0.669 K/BB ratio. Maintained over a full season, that rate would be good for top 25 in the NL. And there's a good chance it could go up. During every season of his minor league career, Dukes walk rates rose while his strikeout rates fell, often drastically. It is not beyond possibility that he may one day be among the rare players who hits for significant power and walks more than he strikes out. He also has power to all fields and sprays the ball around, hitting according to the situation. Which bodes well for the fact that when he plays, Dukes has been batting 5th, just behind Zimmerman and Dunn, so he is likely to get as many RBI opportunities as anybody in the Nats lineup.

While he may continue to get days off against the league's toughest righthanders, I don't expect Dukes role to be considerably limited. And I agree with ESPN's Matthew Berry, who is predicting that he is likely to go 25/25 as soon as this season, with the long-term possibility of 30/30 or better (although his SB% in the minors and his injury history suggest he may never be a premier basestealer).

Perhaps most importantly, Elijah has developed a solid relationship with Washington manager Manny Acta and is clearly making an effort to manage his anger and not allow off-the-field problems to keep him from realizing his massive potential.

Sunday Night Notes (Week One)

• Alfonso Soriano began the ESPN game of the week, on cue, with his 51st career leadoff homer, only two behind Craig Biggio (53) for 2nd all-time. It is Soriano's fourth homer this week. The Fonz is the king of streaky hitters, so this isn't exactly abnormal. What is unusual is that Soriano is a notoriously slow starter, especially since joining the cold-weather Cubs. In April of '07 and '08 he combined for only 2 HR. A hot start, as well as a healthy midsummer (cross your fingers), could allow Soriano to put together the kind of season Chicago envisioned when they signed him to an 8-year/$136 Million deal.
  
• The Indians didn't get their first win until this afternoon, partially due to the fact Cliff Lee has looked very mediocre coming off his Cy Young award. I don't worry too much about him or Fausto Carmona. The young man who will need to solidify their rotation is Anthony Reyes, who was the winner against Toronto earlier today. Reyes was never appreciated much by Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, but he has exceptional movement and the potential to dominate if he can develop adequate control. Today he allowed only three walks and three hits in six innings and was a bit unlucky to yield four earned runs, all but one in his final inning of work. This is an especially good sign because the Blue Jays have a very patient lineup and was probably the hottest hitting team during the first week (46 R, .318 AVG, and 10 HR in 7 games).
  

Down on the Upton

As I was watching Ubaldo Jimenez mow through D-Backs today, I had the distinct displeasure of listening to a couple of homer-happy Colorado broadcasters lay into Justin Upton, who, to be fair, looked just as bad as anybody in the Arizona lineup against what may be the best stuff in the NL (98 MPH heater, 85 MPH change, nasty slider and curve). Arizona may have done a disservice in bringing Justin to the bigs at the age of 19 with the hype that he was the second-coming of Ken Griffey Jr. However, I not so sure that he isn't. One must remember that Upton is still only 21. At an age when most "top prospects" are just beginning to climb the minor league ladder, Upton is in his third major-league season. When Griffey Jr. was 20, he had an 847 OPS. Upton's OPS last season was 814. Upton showed could plate discipline in his brief minor-league career, but has not quite translated it to the big leagues. Last season he struck out 121 times in just over 400 plate appearances. But he was also dealing with injuries, and he still hit 15 HR and had a respectable .353 OBP (that was third-highest among D-Back regulars, by the way). We're going to see some slumps still and I'm not sure he's ready to match the 100 RBI and 926 OPS Junior Griffey put up in his "junior" season, but Upton is very much on the verge of his breakout campaign. He may benefit from Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Tony Clark, and Chad Tracy cutting into his playing time because it encourages Bob Melvin to give him occasional days off, especially against tough righthanders. Look for Upton to hit around .275 this year, with a .375 OBP, 20+ HR, and an OPS around 850. That's pretty good for a guy bought his first beer less than eight months ago.

The Fantastic Life

As part of my ongoing look inside my obsession with fantasy baseball, I will be tracking my top four franchises throughout the 2009 season. All have been going for at least two seasons and, with the exception of the SPH 640, have money on the line. Here are the details:

The Sporting Hippeaux 640 (commissioner, league's 2nd season): 16-team mixed H2H points league with 40-man rosters and 6 keepers. 25-man active roster includes five relief pitchers, two catchers, and LF, CF, RF distinctions. Daily roster changes. 50 transactions per season. 12 pitching starts allowed per match-up (weekly), no limit for AB or IP.

Eight Men Out (my 1st season, league's 20th! season): 12-team mixed $330 salary-cap H2H points league with 31-man rosters and 12 keepers. 23-man active roster with nine pitchers (min. 2 relievers) and 2 utility positions. Weekly roster changes. 22 transactions per season. No limits to starts, AB, or IP. Players are eligible at any position they play 5 games at (includes starter/reliever). Player salaries are determined by Sporting New Fantasy. 6 players are retained at previous year's price. Scoring structure heavily favors SB, SV, HLD, and to a lesser extent W and HR.

Jerkball (my 4th season, leagues 5th season): 12-team mixed $350 salary-cap H2H points league with 31-man rosters and 16 keepers. 23-man active roster with nine pitchers (min. 2 relievers) and 2 utilty positions. Weekly roster changes. 22 transactions per season. No limit to starts, AB, or IP. Players are eligible at any position they play 5 games at (includes starter/reliver). Player values are determined by Sporting News Fantasy. 8 players are retained at previous year's price. Scoring structure heavily favors SB, SV, HLD, and to a lesser extent W and HR.

Screw The DH (my 1st season, league's 3rd season): 10-team NL-only traditional 5 X 5 roto league with 29-man rosters and zero keepers. 23-man active roster with nine pitchers and 2 catchers. Daily roster changes. Unlimited transactions. No limit to starts, AB, or IP.

Here are my Draft Day rosters:

Hippeaux's Soul Brothers (SPH 640)
C - Ramon Hernandez (#7)
C - Jason Varitek (#25)
1B - Albert Pujols (Keeper)
2B - Orlando Hudson (#8)
3B - Adrian Beltre (#2)
SS - Alexei Ramirez (#1)
MI - Nomar Garciaparra (#24)
CI - Prince Fielder (Keeper)
LF - Adam Lind (#10)
CF - Chris Young (#3)
RF - Alex Rios (Keeper)
OF - Cody Ross (#12)
UT - David Ortiz (Keeper)
UT - Chad Tracy (#17)
B(C) - Kenj Johjima (#18)
B(3B) - Pedro Alvarez (#33)
B(SS) - Bobby Crosby (#27)
B(LF) - Matt Joyce (#21)
B(CF) - Wladimir Belentien (#19)
B(CF) - Brian Anderson (#28)
B(RF) - Gary Sheffield (#22)
B(DH) - Mike Sweeney (#30)
SP - Ubaldo Jimenez (Keeper)
SP - Brett Myers (#5)
SP - Aaron Harang (#6)
SP - Mark Buehrle (#9)
SP - Bronson Arroyo (#13)
SP - Jonathan Sanchez (#14)
SP - Anthony Reyes (#16)
SP - Homer Bailey (#26)
SP - Josh Outman (#29)
SP - Koji Uehara (#32)
RP - Bobby Jenks (Keeper)
RP - Matt Capps (#4)
RP - J. J. Putz (#11)
RP - Leo Nunez (#15)
RP - Cory Wade (#20)
RP - Jensen Lewis (#23)
RP - Jim Johnson (#31)
RP - Mitch Stetter (#34)

I think this team will fair well in this very deep format. I've got some good young talent and depth in the starting rotation, balanced by Buehrle, Arroyo, and Harang, veteran innings-eaters who are as close as you can get to safety with starting pitching. The potency of my offensive keepers (Pujols, Fielder, Ortiz, and Rios) should help protect me if I have a couple of injuries or flops from the rest of the lineup. My biggest concern at the moment is that I have a duo of fragile Athletics benchwarmers, Nomar Garciparra and Bobby Crosby, sharing my middle-infield duties. At the moment Eric Chavez is injured (speaking of fragile), so they should see some time, but I'd be happy if I could deal for a consistent, if mediocre everyday player. I'm thinking somebody like Jack Wilson or Jason Bartlett. My bullpen is a source of optimism. We actually decreased the scoring categories for closers and set-up men over the offseason, but I expect several matchups will still be won on the strength of the middle relief corps (just like real baseball). I have two bonafide closers and several set-up men who will rack up strikeouts and holds. As an added bonus, it looks like Putz, Nunez, and Lewis are all next in line on their respective teams if the closer goes down.

Soul Rebels (Eight Men Out)
C - Russell Martin (#1, $20)
1B - Derrek Lee (K, $19)
2B - Robinson Cano (K, $15)
3B - David Wright (K, $41)
SS - Stephen Drew (K, $11)
MI - Rickie Weeks (#4, $10)
CI - Victor Martinez (#11, $19)
OF - Nick Markakis (K, $27)
OF - Matt Kemp (K, $22)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (K, $26)
OF - Vernon Wells (K, $22)
OF - Adam Lind (#14, $9)
UT - Rafael Furcal (#16, $20)
UT - Matt Joyce (#13, $2)
B(1B) - Kila Ka'aihue (#18, $1)
B(3B) - David Freese (#12, $1)
B(OF) - Wladimir Belentien (#10, $1)
SP - Felix Hernandez (#2, $21)
SP - Matt Cain (#3, $16)
SP - Manny Parra (#5, $4)
SP - Ubaldo Jimenez (#7, $10)
SP - Edinson Volquez (K, $1)
SP - Gavin Floyd (K, $1)
SP - Kenshin Kawakami (#8, $1)
RP - Joel Hanrahan (K, $1)
RP - Brandon Morrow (K, $1)
B(P) - Scot Shields (#15, $3)
B(P) - Trevor Cahill (#6, $1)
B(P) - James McDonald (#9, $1)
B(P) - Jeff Niemann (#17, $1)
B(P) - Josh Outman (#19, $1)

I'm entering a league full of veteran fantasy players with a slightly unconventional scoring structure whose particular oddities I have yet to experience over the course of a season. This league will probably be the single biggest challenge in my quest for a sweep. I took over a decent roster and, thankfully, I felt as though I drafted very well. It was, unintentionally a kind of stars and scrubs concept, with no less than a dozen $1 players on my roster, giving me the luxury of paying for five guys $16 and higher, despite the fact that I started the draft with only $143. Getting King Felix and Matt Cain in the first three rounds felt like a bit of coup, considering my pitching keepers (Volquez, Floyd, Morrow, and Hanrahan) were spotty to say the least. After that I loaded up on high-risk, high-reward young talent. Cain, at 24 years of age, is the most experience guy on my staff. On offense I am far more steady, though not necessarily dominant. I like the balance of young players on the rise (Kemp, Drew, Lind, Weeks, etc.) and veterans looking to bounce back from injuries (Guerrero, V-Mart, Furcal, Wells, etc.). These two types of players have been the building blocks for most of my best teams. At this point all I can do is cross my fingers.

Soul Brothers (Jerkball)
C - Russell Martin (K, $20)
1B - Prince Fielder (K, $29)
2B - Howie Kendrick (#2, $19)
3B - Joe Crede (#9, $8)
SS - Rafael Furcal (K, $20)
MI - Mike Fontenot (#8, $2)
CI - Derrek Lee (K, $19)
OF - Ryan Braun (K, $35)
OF - B. J. Upton (K, $25)
OF - Milton Bradley (K, $15)
OF - Justin Upton (K, $13)
OF - Andre Ethier (T*, $12)
DH - David Ortiz (K, $24)
UT - Adam Lind (A*, $9)
B(3B) - Scott Rolen (A*, $7)
B(OF) - Elijah Dukes (K, $1)
B(OF) - Colby Rasmus (#12, $1)
B(OF) - Brian Anderson (#13, $1)
SP - Roy Halladay (K, $17)
SP - Cliff Lee (K, $1)
SP - A. J. Burnett (K, $15)
SP - Aaron Harang (K, $14)
SP - Chris Carpenter (K, $4)
SP - Ryan Dempster (K, $1)
SP - Ubaldo Jimenez (#3, $10)
RP - Heath Bell (T*, $9)
RP - Koji Uehara (#5, $1)
B(P) - Jonathan Sanchez (#4, $6)
B(P) - Jesse Litsch (#7, $3)
B(P) - Leo Nunez (#10, $1)
B(P) - Homer Bailey (#15, $1)

*I was not pleased with my draft in what might be the most competitive league that I play in, so I immediately got to work on my team. With the news that Fernando Rodney was replacing Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom was going to be healthy enough to start the season, I found myself without a closer (not that Lyon and Leo Nunez were excellent option to begin with), and I wasn't ready to count on James McDonald and Koji Uehara every week. It was also revealed that, at least in the early going, Austin Kearns was going to be getting more at-bats in Washington than Elijah Dukes. Within 24 hours of the draft I traded Daisuke Matsuzaka (#2, $27) and McDonald (#6, $1) for Andre Ethier and Heath Bell. I then used the waiver wire to exchange Kevin Kouzmanoff (#14, $15) and Lyon (#11, $1) for Adam Lind and Scott Rolen. I felt it gave me improved roster flexibility until the playing time for Dukes, Nunez, Colby Rasmus, and Brian Anderson becomes more settled.

After my roster moves, I'm feeling much better about my team. This is a league I have dominated in recent years, leading the way in wins in both '07 and '08. In the latter I set a new league record. My team from last year was almost too dominant, evidenced by the fact that five of the first 21 picks in this year's draft were gusy I was forced to dump back into the player pool; guys like Dan Haren, Dice-K, Matt Garza, Manny Parra, Ervin Santana, James Loney, and Michael Young. Do I sound bitter? Nevertheless, it was through this franchise that I invented and refined the "Soul Brothers" concept, as may be obvious.

2 Legit 2 Not Acquit (Screw the DH)
C - Yadier Molina (#11)
C - Jason Kendall (#22)
1B - Albert Pujols (#1)
2B - Brandon Phillips (#2)
3B - Garrett Atkins (#5)
SS - Rafael Furcal (#6)
MI - Alex Gonzalez (#21)
CI - James Loney (#8)
OF - Matt Kemp (#3)
OF - Adam Dunn (#4)
OF - Milton Bradley (#10)
OF - Elijah Dukes (#13)
OF - Brian Giles (#16)
UT - Chad Tracy (#18)
B(C) - Buster Posey (#23)
B(3B) - Mat Gamel (#29)
B(OF) - Carlos Gonzalez (#25)
B(OF) - Andrew McCutcheon (#29)
SP - Matt Cain (#7)
SP - Bronson Arroyo (#12)
SP - Manny Parra (#14)
SP - Jonathan Sanchez (#15)
SP - Hiroki Kuroda (#17)
SP - Joe Blanton (#20)
SP - Ian Snell (#24)
RP - Matt Lindstrom (#9)
RP - Kevin Gregg (#19)
B(P) - James McDonald (#26)
B(P) - Kevin Correia (#27)

I love NL-only leagues, and this is no exception. My offense if primed for domination and I once again banked on breakthrough performances from pitchers like Sanchez, Parra, Snell, and Kuroda. The lineup is already strong and balanced (speed, power, average), but I will really benefit if one or two of the four top prospects I booked on the bench makes it to the bigs during the first half. It will give me some more flexibility and take a little pressure off the pitching. Gamel is probably the best bet to get a shot if Bill Hall gets off to another slow start in Milwaukee. Regardless, I think all four will get the call by August. It is a serious chance I'm taking, however, since in a deep NL-only league the waiver wire options will be very thin if one of my studs goes down. The good news is, I plan to hold onto my #1 waiver rank in preparation for an intraleague blockbuster in June or July. Matt Holliday, Erik Bedard, Adrian Beltre, Aubrey Huff, and Hank Blalock are among the potential players on the market, any one of whom would provide a sizable boost. Of course, I'm saying my prayers it will be Roy Halladay to the Cubs.

Bold Predictions

Watching a couple of exciting pitching matchups this afternoon. Justin Verlander got roughted up early against the Blue Jays and Doc Halladay, but has settled down since then, though it may be too little too late. In a battle of tremendously talented young pitchers, Francisco Liriano is at home in Minnesota against Felix Hernandez and the Mariners, who boast one of the more pathetic lineups in recent memory, with no Ichiro and Mike Sweeney, Adrian Beltre, and Ken Griffey Jr. batting three through five.

Without further ado, some opening day predictions.

AL East:

Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles

Top Hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox
Top Pitcher: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
Top Rookie: Matt Wieters, Orioles
Top Comeback: Carl Crawford, Rays

There has been no more popular topic for punditry during the preseason than the spectacular three-horse race in the AL East. Boston, New York, and Tampa may well be the three best teams in the majors (though I'd be tempted to add the Cubs and Dodgers to the mix) and any of the three could easily make a run to the World Series with a few good breaks. Although I actually applaud the signing of Sabathia, Texeira, and Burnett, the reason I think New York will again fall short in a tight race is the uncertainty of A-Rod (which will put undo pressure on Texeira) and the weakness of New York's defense. I will repeat the mantra of the offseason: Tampa Bay went to the World Series last year despite the fact that none of their hitters had career years.

Something else to note, both Toronto and Baltimore will have much improved lineups and will be forces to reckon with for their divisional rivals on the intermittent days when they get strong pitching performances. Toronto is my sleeper pick for this season.

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals

Top Hitter: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Top Pitcher: Kevin Slowey, Twins
Top Rookie: Kila Ka'aihue, Royals
Top Comeback: Coco Crisp, Royals

This may be the hardest division to call one through five. None are as good as the top teams in the East, nor as bad as the bottom teams in the West. Injuries to Joe Mauer and Scott Baker were enough to make me question the viability of the Twins, but if those two come back in May or June, Minnesota could once again make a late season push. The Tigers, Twins, and Royals all have serious holes in the back-end of their rotations, which is part of why I place them behind the Tribe and the Sox. Neither of those teams are dominant one through five, but if their late rotation guys struggle, they have plenty of promising options to turn to at AAA. For the Sox to prove me right, they will need to get repeat performances from Gavin Floyd and John Danks, as well as a bounce-back season from Paul Konerko. There lineup promises to be powerful, as usual, and they should get better defensively by moving Alexei Ramirez to short and adding Chris Getz (2B), Josh Fields (3B), and the platoon of DeWayne Wise and Brian Anderson.

AL West:

Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners

Top Hitter: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Top Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Top Rookie: Brett Anderson, Athletics
Top Comeback: Kelvim Escobar, Angels

I was fully in the Angels corner, until they lost John Lackey and Ervin Santana in the last weeks of Spring Training. The good news is that neither is officially out for the season...yet, and Kelvim Escobar and Nick Adenhart are both looking like pretty strong replacements. Nonetheless, Billy Beane's offseason spending spree (Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra) and his willingness to hand over his rotation to fireballing rookies Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Josh Outman (with Gio Gonzalez and Sean Gallagher on the horizon) has me willing to go out on a limb and predict the A's with make a surprise run in the West. I also think the Rangers may be just a year removed. They've still got a pathetic rotation (Kris Benson, really?), but man-o-man are they stacked on offense and in the bullpen.

NL East:

New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

Top Hitter: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Top Pitcher: Johan Santana, Mets
Top Rookie: Jordan Schafer, Braves
Top Comeback: Brett Myers, Philles

I'm probably the only one who will admit that I wasn't sold on the Mets until they signed Gary Sheffield. The addition of the angry right-handed slugger (you think he's got something to prove after being released by the Tigers with 499 HR?) fills out the otherwise suspect outfield corps. The critical piece of the puzzle for the Mets will be solid seasons from Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, all of whom need to be good from 150+ innings and 12+ wins. Those are not unrealistic expectations given the talent in that group. Philadelphia will once again be hot on their heels, but I am unconvinced that Cole Hamels will be able to repeat his dominance after throwing 260+ innings last year. Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park don't inspire confidence either.

NL Central:

Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

Top Hitter: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Top Pitcher: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
Top Rookie: Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
Top Comeback: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Everywhere I look pundits are predicting the Cubs to run away with the central and I find myself constantly knocking on wood. Although I agree that the Cubs have the most depth and fewest obvious holes, I think the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers boast better overall clubs than most are giving them credit for. The Reds rotation has always been their most glaring hole, but this year they go in with four solid starters (Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto) and still plenty of sock in the lineup. St. Louis has an apparently healthy Chris Carpenter (1.52 ERA and 17 K in 24 spring innings), lots of promising young talent, and that guy named Pujols. 2008 Wild Card winner Milwaukee famously lost Sabathia and Sheets, but they still have perhaps the best lineup in the NL. Look for Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra to do a fair job of filling those gigantic shoes.

NL West:

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

Top Hitter: Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
Top Pitcher: Tim Lincecum, Giants
Top Rookie: Pedro Sandoval, Giants
Top Comeback: Barry Zito, Giants

If you just put the Giants rotation with the Dodgers lineup the NL would finally have a juggernaut on the level with the top teams in the AL East. The Dodger rotation may not need much help by season's end. Joe Torre has inserted a talented trio of Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and James McDonald into the rotation behind Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf, two of the more underrated pitchers in the NL last season. After missing their chance to draw Manny Ramirez away from the Dodgers, I still feel that the Giants aren't done building their club. Why add Randy Johnson and Edgar Renteria, obvious short-term moves, then not pick-up the power bat they so desperately need? If the rotation can keep the Giants alive in the first couple months and Pedro Sandoval is looking like a legit three hitter, I expect the Giants will go hard after impending free agent power threats like Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, and Hank Blalock.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles
AL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen, White Sox
AL Champs: Tampa Bay Rays

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets
NL Rookie of the Year: Pedro Sandoval, Giants
NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, Dodgers
NL Champs: Los Angeles Dodgers

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

The Argument for Colby Rasmus

For the second straight season, Colby Rasmus is a popular prospect-sleeper pick. Last year he got injured and was disappointing in a half-season at AAA, hitting a mild .251 with very mediocre power. However, this season his bat may not be essential for keeping him with the big club. As it stands, St. Louis is the only team which Baseball Prospectus expects to start three below average defensive outfielders (Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Ludwick). This should be especially troubling for manager Tony LaRussa since the only man in the Cardinal rotation who is truly a groundball pitcher is Chris Carpenter. By inserting Rasmus, by all accounts a solid centerfielder, the Cardinals get markedly better. Ankiel has poor range for a centerfielder, but will be at least average in right where he can continue to utilize his spectacular arm. Ludwick will also benefit from moving overt to left. Most importantly, iron-gloved, slow-footed Chris Duncan would then become a pinch-hitter and utility-man, prepping himself for a career at his natural position, DH.

Why do I hate Derek Jeter?

It has become cliche. More than a handful of essays and articles have been published exposing the flaws in Jeter's game: his defense, primarily, but also his lack of speed and power, his unwillingness to change positions or bat lower in the lineup, his mediocre pitch selection, etc. Everywhere outside the Bronx, Jeter-haters abound. I've despised Jeter with a passion for almost a decade, brought on first by his being the centerpiece of the Millennial Yankee Dynasty and later by his undeserved Gold Gloves in '04, '05, and '06 which stole the spotlight from underappreciated defensive contributers like Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Alex Gonzalez.

These days what rubs me the wrong way is not only Jeter's holier-than-thou attitude, but the awestruck tone taken on by baseball commentators when the talk about him. Cue Rick Sutcliffe, coloring the World Baseball Classic last night on ESPN2. Apparently, Captain Jeter had not been in the lineup prior to the USA's elimination game against the Netherlands, supplanted by Jimmy Rollins, he of the deserved Gold Gloves, MVP award, and 2008 World Series ring. A true Captain America, one would assume, would've taken the benching in stride, complimented his teammate, and prepared for whatever opportunity might present itself. Jeter, however, according to Sutcliffe, was in an unprecedented "foul mood" during batting practice. Strangely, Sutcliffe did not deride the captain for putting his own pride ahead of his support of the club, but rather took it as an indication that "things needed to change" in the US clubhouse. Throughout the game (Jeter was inserted in the lineup at DH when Chipper Jones was scratched) Sutcliffe continued to praise "Mr. November," saying at one point, "How could you not love him?" The problem was, while J-Roll went 2-for-4 with a triple, homer, and 4 RBI, as well as some run-saving defense plays, Jeter was an absolute rally-killer, finishing 0-for-3 with six men left on base.

Davey Johnson promised that he would stick with the "hot hand" going into the WBC. It will be interesting to see if he can stick to his guns even when it means giving a living legend the cold shoulder. The US team faces a much tougher elimination game against either Venezuela or Puerto Rico (both of whom have already beat the US once) on Tuesday.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

Fantasy Highlights

- In 2001 I put together an NL-Only team which included NL MVP Barry Bonds, NL Rookie of the Year Albert Pujols, and Cardinals Aces Darryl Kile and Matt Morris, who combined for 38 wins. I was surprisingly taken to the wire by a fellow manager who had Sammy Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, and D-Backs co-Aces Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. What put me over the top was probably the play of Jimmy Rollins and Moises Alou.

- In 2002, in a H2H mixed league, I put together a pen of John Smoltz, Eric Gagne, Robb Nen, and Ugeth Urbina, who combined for nearly 200 saves and 350 K, alongside Pedro Martinez and Matt Clement, both of whom exceeded 200 K, I had four categories guaranteed week-in and week-out. Once I realized this fact, I started dispatching my sluggers to accumulate a stable of high-average speedsters who would assure my dominance in SB, AVG., and R, guys like Kenny Lofton, Alfonso Soriano, Luis Castillo, and Johnny Damon.

The World Baseball Classic

- Cuba is once again making apparent their place as the most incredible source of baseball talent in the world, much to the chagrin of "old-school" baseball broadcasters like Charlie Steiner, who is forced to utter attenuated compliments through gritted teeth.

- Ubaldo Jimenez and Pedro Martinez made impressive showings despite the Domincan Republics's embarrassing first-round exit following two one-run losses to the Netherlands. Jimenez pitched four innings and surrendered no runs, two hits, and zero walks with 10 strikeouts. Pedro made a pair of appearances and allowed only two baserunners in six innings, with six strikeouts.

Preseason Notes: The Raging Jays

There are several reasons why sportswriters, commentators, and pundits are dismissing the Toronto Blue Jays this March.  First and foremost, there is the quality of their competition.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays were all superior last season and each of those teams made more of an off-season splash than the Jays.  More importantly, perhaps, the Blue Jays strength, a pitching staff which was very quietly the best in baseball in 2008, has been decimated by the loss of three starters - A. J. Burnett to free agency, and Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum to injury.  Toronto was 11th in the A.L. in runs scored last year and their only offensive acquisition is Kevin Millar, so presumably they need to shut down their opponents in order to win.  Ace Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch are the only pitchers competing for rotations spots this spring who started more than a dozen games in the majors last season.

These are areas of serious concern, but they don't provide a full picture of Toronto's potential.  One thing remains constant, the Blue Jays retain Halladay, the best starting pitcher in either league (with all due respect to Sabathia and Santana), and a veteran presence whose influence on his young teammates helps reify comparisons with Greg Maddux.  Halladay has electric strikeout-artist stuff, just like Maddux in his prime, but it is his willingness to pitch to contact which allows him to stick around deep into games and deep into the season.  He's surpassed 16 wins and 220 innings in each of the last three seasons, despite getting less than average run production.  With Doc's presence on the mound every fifth game, the Blue Jays have the ability to stop losing streaks and take pressure of their young arms and their bullpen.

That stable of young arms is impressive, even without Marcum and McGowan, both of whom are likely to miss all of 2009.  Jesse Litsch will be expected to move up to #2 in the rotation this year, at the age of 23, but his numbers from last season (13-9, 3.58 ERA, 99K, and 1.23 WHIP in 176 IP) suggest he is ready to be successful in that role.  In fact, he may be primed for a breakout season, more than filling the shoes of the departed Burnett.  Halladay and Litsch will be followed by some combination of David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Casey Janssen, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond, and Matt Clement.  All the these pitchers possess a certain amount of upside, but Brett Cecil is the kid to watch most closely.  He jumped three levels in 2008 (at the age of 21), performing well at each of them and earning himself a long look this spring.  During his extended run at AA, Cecil posted a miniscule ERA (2.55) and excellent strikeout ratios (10.08 K/9, 3.78 K/BB).  More patient hitters at AAA led to more walks in his brief time there to end the season, but he continued to be overpowering (9.10 K/9) and generally effective (4.11 ERA).  Most prospects of his caliber would be getting some major love at this point, but Cecil is benefitting from the wall of invisibility that comes with playing baseball in Canada.  If he shows strong command during camp, he could be a sleeper for Rookie of the Year and a key to making the Blue Jays rotation formidable once again.

What has gone most unnoticed in the writing off of the Jays, however, is that there offense is not as bad as it appeared last season.  Extended injuries to Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen meant far too much exposure for Marcus Scutaro, John McDonald, and Joe Inglett, each of whom provides value only in more limited utility roles.  The return of Wells, Rolen, and Hill will also bolster the performance of Alex Rios, the Jays star right-fielder, whose production also suffered early in the year.  From June on, Rios hit .306 with 12 HR and an 854 OPS, clearly benefitting from improved lineup protection.  Even if Toronto again struggles with injuries, the acquisition of Millar and Jose Bautista will give them improved offensive option off the bench.  

Former manager John Gibbons also experimented far too long with cast-away veterans Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Shannon Stewart in the outfield and DH roles in 2008.  Don't expect Cito Gaston to make the same mistake.  One of Gaston's first acts as manager was inserting Adam Lind in LF full-time, the result of which was a .296 AVG, 9 HR, and a respectable 792 OPS from June 22nd on.  Lind can hit.  I expect all those numbers to improve in his sophomore campaign.  He will be followed to the big leagues by Travis Snider.  The two are Toronto's top hitting prospects, both providing considerable power and good plate discipline, both of which were profoundly missing last season when the Jays were 10th in the A.L. in OBP and 11th in SLG%.

There is very little pressure on the Jays as everybody looks at the AL East as a three-horse race, but I expect Toronto to again finish the season above .500 (for the fourth year in a row), play spoiler, and perhaps even challenge for a wild-card berth.  

Preseason Fantasy Notes with Midseason Fantasy Implications

Three years ago I picked up Russell Martin in the middle of May.  When I called to process the transaction, my league's commissioner had never even heard of him.  A month later he was the Dodger's starting catcher, as he remains, and he cost me only $1 for that season and the next.  In 2007, I pulled the same stunt with Justin Upton, who also immediately assumed a starting position, and while injury prevented Upton from breaking out last season, I'd still willing to bet the move will pay off for me in the long run.  

My point is to demonstrate that top minor league talent is often available in the middle of the season, when many of your competitors have already forgotten about the Baseball America reports they studied in March and April.  This season you can bet that people will be spending big on David Price and Matt Wieters, and justifiably so, as those rookies look to start the season in impact roles in the major leagues.  However, a lot of inexpensive talent will begin the year in AA or AAA.  We now have the luxury of keeping track of young players easily through sites like Baseball-Reference.com and minorleaguebaseball.com.  Do yourself a favor.  Pick a dozen or so promising prospects this spring who play for teams who are likely to be auditioning young talent by the All-Star break and check in on them every week or so.  Believe me, if you do so, you will be able to tell when they are on the verge of getting their ticket to the show and will be able to pick them up a weeks before they are on most owners radars.

Here are a few of the players who are going on my list that were strangely absent from the Baseball American Top 100:

Cedric Hunter - CF - San Diego Padres

Hunter spent the whole of 2008 in advanced A-ball, but he led the minor leagues in hits (186).  He's not yet 21 and this is already his fourth year of professional ball; he might be ready to move very quickly through the system.  Hunter doesn't possess a ton of power, but he had a respectable 47 extra-base hits (including 11 HR) last season, suggesting some power will come as he matures.  He already has great plate discipline, walking as much as he strikes out.  Most importantly, perhaps, there is likely to be plenty of opportunities in San Diego, whose best outfield options behind Brian Giles are Chase Headley, Scott Hairston, and Jody Gerut.  Hunter could play left or center in the spacious PETCO Park and his gap-hitting style is perfectly suited for the space as well.  He will start the season a ways down on the depth chart, but could leap-frog several mediocre older prospects with a fast start.

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals

Fantasy pundits have been a little down on this 25-year-old Hawaiian sensation who had eye-popping power numbers at AA because he seems blocked behind Billy Butler, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Shealy, and Ross Gload.  Let's face it, though, none of those guys look like the second-coming of Albert Pujols.  Ka'aihue does (kind of).  If Ka'aihue brings his 1000+ OPS and better than 1/1 BB/K ration again this season, the Royals would be crazy not to find a spot for him.  

Kevin Pucetas - SP - San Francisco Giants

The Giant rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito, and Sanchez looks on paper like one of the best in either league, but we're all aware of that Johnson's age makes him injury-prone and San Francisco might not be willing to endure another dreadful start from Zito.  Sanchez is also unproven.  If any of these pitchers don't work out, Pucetas is likely to get the first shot.  He's 24 and has consistently posted an excellent K/BB ratio in the minor leagues.  Great control and an ability to limit the long ball bodes well for his ability to succeed right away.

Quartet One

First of all, welcome a brand-new incarnation of the Hippeaux blog, updated to incorporate a wider variety of Americana. Baseball fans, however, can rest assured that my allegiance to that sport above all others remains undeterred. So, I will bare my 'seauxl' for the first time on the topic of the 2009 free agent class. Here are, in my opinion, the top twelve available players this offseason and a subjective view of which teams might make the best fit.

1. C. C. Sabathia - SP

Although he didn't win another Cy Young, Sabathia was even more dominant this time around then he was in Cleveland a year ago. He became to first pitcher to record 10 complete games and 5 shutouts since Randy Johnson did it ten years ago (interestingly, '98 was the season the Big Unit was traded from the AL to the NL midseason). At only 28, Sabathia has already played in eight full big-league seasons and has never pitched less than 180 innings or tallied less than eleven wins. While I would find it hard to argue that he is a more valuable pitcher than Johan Santana, I think it is now safe to say that they are the only two pitchers in the discussion. The extremes ends of the Sabathia contract have already been delineated. The Brewers offering 5 yrs./$100 Million and the Yankees countering with 6 yrs./$140 Million. However, if money were the only issue, I think it is safe to say we'd already have picture of the big guy holding up pinstripes. Sabathia has thrived the past two seasons as the recognized leader of young, successful teams. Besides the much-discussed factors of wanting to remain in the NL and wanting to be closer to his home on the west coast, I think C. C. is reluctant to play third or fourth or fifth or sixth fiddle to long-time Yankees like Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte. It is clear that he thrives as the workhorse and clubhouse chairperson of an underdog franchise. I'm not saying that Sabathia is a egomaniac who needs to be constantly in the limelight - if her were, obviously, New York would be the place for him - merely that he might prefer a franchise where he has more opportunity to lead.

With that in mind, recent rumors that the Giants are preparing an offer somewhere between what is on the table from Milwaukee and New York seem compelling. On the one hand, the Giants already possess a formidable rotation and would seem best served by committing their free agent dollars to the pursuit of more offense. But, you can never have too much quality starting pitching and Sabathia would be the likable, long-term replacement for Barry Bonds in a way which Barry Zito clearly failed to be and big-ticket bats like Manny Ramirez and Mark Texeira might have trouble duplicating. With Sabathia in the fold, the Giants would also have the option of trading Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for that middle of the order thunder. Or, they could try to be the San Diego Padres - a hyperbolic emphasis on pitching and defense at the expense of offense - a formula which had a considerable history of success prior to this season.

2. Manny Ramirez - LF/DH

There may be only one place in the country where it is safe to say that Manny won't end up. Obviously, low-budget bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh and Kansas City would be unwise to pursue one player at the expense of filling a multitude of holes, but I could see a wide variety of GMs convincing themselves and their ownership that Manny Ramirez represents the quickest avenue to contention. They need look no further than their recent memories. He carried the Dodgers to the NLCS by batting nearly .400 with a Bonds-like OPS (1232) during the last 2+ months of the regular season, then hit over .500 in October. Only a year prior to that he carried the Red Sox to the World Series by driving in 16 runs during the ALDS and ALCS. Postseason runs are scarce, yet during his 43 playoff games with the Red Sox, Manny accumulated 38 RBI. There is really no case against such a hitter. There are logical openings for him in Seattle, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Texas, Washington, and Baltimore, where he could provide a boost for the fan base and make playoff aspirations seem legitimate. In places like Detroit, Tampa Bay, and all teams in New York, Chicago, and L.A., Manny could be the piece that turns perennial contention into championship fulfillment.

I think it will be a team from the latter group which finally pulls the trigger, becomes willing to offer four years rather than three. And, although I will not rule out of possibility of seeing Manny heading home to NYC, the best fit seem to be the Dodgers, where his eccentric personality was immediately embraced by the franchise and the community, and especially the young, talented players, many of whom probably owned a Ramirez jersey in high school. The front office will defer to Torre, who has plenty of experience dealing with prima donnas.

3. Mark Texeira - 1B

The last two seasons, Texeira has been like a freelance bodyguard. While he put up great numbers of his own after joining Atlanta in '07 and the Angels this season, he was brought on to provide protection for a superstar, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, respectively. I expect this pattern to continue. The Angels, obviously, would like to retain his services, as Torii Hunter is the closest thing they have to a cleanup hitter. Boston would like to fill that gaping hole behind Big Papi, because, although Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, and Drew are all great hitters, none of them profiles with Texeira's (or Ramirez') power. The Yankees will be parting ways with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, while the health of Posada and Matsui remains in question, so they appear to have gaping holes on either side of A-Rod in the lineup. I expect this to devolve into a New York vs. Boston bidding war, such that Texeira may get the biggest payday this offseason even though he might not be the most valuable player. If Boston wins, New York will redouble their pursuit of Ramirez or, perhaps, try to sign Adam Dunn to play first base. If New York wins, I expect Theo Epstein to look for creative trade possibilities. With Jon Lest, Dice-K, and Beckett ingrained in the rotation, he may be willing to move Clay Buchholz and/or Justin Masterson.

4. Rafael Furcal - SS

Others may disagree, but it is my contention that an excellent defensive shortstop, who can hit near .300 batting leadoff, steal bases, and walk as often as he strikes out is more valuable than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher like A. J. Burnett or Derek Lowe. I need look no further than Billy Beane's aggressive pursuit of Furcal to know there's some truth to this. Beane is not known for his interest in expensive free agents.

Sure, we can't expect Furcal to hit like he did in April and May (before he got injured) over the course of a full season, but even while shaking off the rust during the playoffs he looked like a solid igniter. Oakland won't be the only team interested and as the price goes up, I expect Beane's eagerness to subside. Joe Torre repeatedly applauded Furcal, even while he was going through his prolonged rehabilitation, so I think it's reasonable to think he might resign with L.A.

Bay Believer

During his four and a half seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates - on the verge of becoming the lowliest franchise in major league history - Jason Bay hardly played a meaningful game after his perennial appearance as the team's sole representative to the All-Star Game in early July.  While the more appealing story may continue to be the postseason heroics of the man(ny) who used to play left field in Boston, his replacement, Bay, is playing as if possessed with a fury not unlike that of Barry Bonds, another former Pirate left-fielder, during 2002, the only year he made it to the World Series.  In the first six playoff games of his career he is batting .458 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 5 Runs Scored.  Additionally, he has played an exceptional outfield, cutting off balls in the gap and throwing out runners who try to advance.  I find it hard to applaud Theo Epstein's continued attempts at white-washing the BoSox clubhouse, but Jason Bay is helping him once again look like a genius.   

October 1 Notes

• For C. C. Sabathia, Jimmy Rollins, Gary Sheffield, and others who have been promoting MLB's inner-city baseball programs (namely R.B.I.) and drawing attention to the waning presence of African Americans in the major leagues, this postseason should be a source of great pride and cause for further diligence on that front. In a time when there are only an average of about two black players per active roster, five teams are taking three or more African Americans with them into October. Four of the five teams who boast five or more black regulars advanced, with only the Tigers being left out of the playoffs. The Brewers, having added C. C. Sabathian and Ray Durham midseason, boast the largest percentage of African American players, with 7.
• Those who aren't eager for a centennial World Series appearance for the Cubs are probably anticipating the possibility of Manny Ramirez facing off against his old club, the defending Champion Boston Red Sox. However, in addition to the drama of Manny's return to Fenway, having carried his NL West leaders through the second half, there are other Dodgers with axes to grind with the BoSox. Dodger manager Joe Torre hasn't faced the BoSox in the postseason since they reeled off four wins in a row against his Yankees en route to the 2004 World Series. Derek Lowe, the Dodger ace, went 3-0 for the Red Sox during that same postseason, but Boston chose not to resign him. Nomar Garciaparra was also a member of the BoSox in 2004, though not for long enough to see October baseball. He was traded to the Cubs in July. Nomar quietly disdained the way he was treated by the Boston organization in his final years with them, as he struggled with injuries and Manny cited the dismissals of Garciaparra and Lowe as among his reasons for seeking to leave the Red Sox during the tumultuous weeks leading up to his trade.
• The Dodgers are by no means the same team this October that was responsible for their modest record from April to August. Not only has Manny changed the face of the lineup, as will be constantly eluded to by the commentators, and not without due cause (Manny was responsible for approximately a third of the Dodger runs after he joined the team). The Dodgers also add Rafeal Furcal, who hasn't been a regular since May, at which time he was hitting .367. Furcal, if fully healthy, gives L.A. a top-flight leadoff hitter and a massively talented defensive shortstop. The difference between Furcal at 80% and Angel Berroa at 100% is notable. The Dodger also added Casey Blake at 3B, allowing them to move Blake DeWitt to 2B, and relegating Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra to the bench. I would be willing to bet that one or both of them will make a splash pinch-hitting in a critical situation.
  

What September means for April...

There are two teams in the AL this September that nobody wants to face.  No, not the Red Sox, nor the Angels.  These two teams don't have any chance at making the postseason.  The New York Yankees are not one of them, nor the Detroit Tigers, despite the powerful lineups they boast.  The hottest teams in baseball at the moment are the Cleveland Indians and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Sure, the extended winning streaks they've put up in recent weeks are a bit fluky, but serious fantasy baseball players should be taking note of the performances which might fly a bit under the radar, but have serious implications for 2009.

Everybody knows about Toronto's pitching staff.  You aren't going to sneak Roy Halladay through your auction or draft, nor A. J. Burnett, nor probably Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, or even Jesse Litsch.  What made the Blue Jays highly beatable in the first half of the season was their paltry offense.  Vernon Wells was injured, as was Scott Rolen.  Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay slumped.  John Gibbons chose to go with mediocre veterans like Brad Wilkerson and Shannon Stewart instead of trust young players like Adam Lind.  Cito Gaston has not had the same problem.  And the Blue Jays are showing that scoring runs may not be a big an issue for them come 2009.  As a team, the Jays scored 20 more runs in August than in any previous month (that's almost a 20% spike) and they are batting .311 so far in September.   Alex Rios is batting .312 with 9 HR during the All-Star Break, much to the delight of those who "wasted" an early round pick on him.  One of Gaston's first acts as manager was inserting Lind into the lineup everyday.  Lind has rewarded him by hitting .317 with 9 HR, 39 RBI, and an 868 OPS in 64 games since, suggesting that he is definitely a candidate for a breakout season when he turns 25 in 2009.  Vernon Wells has only played about half a season's worth of games, but has managed 16 HR and 66 RBI in that half, proving that his disappointing 2007 was merely a fluke.  Joe Inglett and Travis Snider have also been impressive in limited action.  Expect them to take on larger roles in 2009.  

After trading David Eckstein and Matt Stairs late in the season, Toronto will definitely be in the market for a shortstop and a 1B/OF/DH-type during the offseason, but it is a team with great depth in pitching and very few obvious holes.  Toronto, of course, has the misfortune of playing in the AL East, but I expect them to carry their late-season momentum into next year and make a serious run at contention.

Cleveland also plays in a deep division.  They have been alternating good and bad years since '05.  If the pattern holds, they'll be due for upwards of 90 wins in 2009.  Despite the loss of Sabathia and Byrd, the Indians still have two Aces atop their rotation in Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, plus a stockpile of high-potential young arms.  They can focus their free agent dollars on solving their bullpen issues and improving the offense, an offense which hasn't been that bad.  They are eighth in the AL in scoring, but that's without Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.  No team can be expected to be at their best without two middle-of-the-order caliber hitters.  Ben Francisco has had a fairly successful rookie campaign, hitting 14 HR with 51 RBI in only 400 AB.  Asdrubel Cabrera and Franklin Guttierrez took modest steps backward, but still look like promising players.  Sizemore is a legit MVP candidate and Jhonny Peralta is among the most underrated players in baseball.  All of these guys should be on your radar next spring, as should Matt LaPorta and Michael Aubrey, prospects that might earn starting roles early next year.  

Some Unlikely MVPs

Cliff Lee has all but cinched the AL Cy Young, while the trio of Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, and C. C. Sabathia provides plenty of excellent options for NL voters.  Geovany Soto is clearly the NL's top rookie, with all respect to Joey Votto and Jair Jurrjens.  In the AL, Evan Longoria's late-season injury may have opened up a opportunity for Armando Galarraga and Alexei Ramirez.  The biggest questions remain, however, in the races for Most Valuable player in both leagues.  This year provides us with no Alex Rodriguez or Barry Bonds type performances, head and shoulders above the competition.  Ryan Howard leads the NL in two critical categories, HR and RBI, but is batting a mere .237 and is headed for upwards of 200 strikeouts.  Josh Hamilton's march toward the RBI crown has slowed slightly in the second half and, of course, he is playing on a team which was out of contention early in August.  Carlos Quentin carried the White Sox offense at various times throughout the season, but an unfortunate, fluky hand injury has left him sitting on 36 HR and 100 RBI, numbers which will merely seem reminders of what could have been. 

The scarcity of traditional choices has allowed Dustin Pedroia to emerge as a fashionable favorite in early September.  He has been very valuable to a Red Sox team which has suffered extended injuries to David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and J. D. Drew, as well as that whole Manny Ramirez ordeal.  Pedroia is leading the AL in runs scored (111), hits (193), and batting average (.330) and has very admirable numbers across the board, but though he has batted cleanup recently, he isn't particularly strong in the traditional MVP categories, HR (17) and RBI (74).  His run production numbers would be the lowest for an MVP since Ichiro won the award in 2001.  Besides Pedroia, whose popularity as a candidate is largely due to the ubiquity of the Red Sox, their are some other darkhorses worth considering this November.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I, personally, believe Sabathia should be given the NL Cy Young.  Although Webb and Lincecum have had fine seasons, Sabathia has dominated the league since his arrival in early July to a degree we've not seen since Randy Johnson was at the top of his game in the late nineties and early aughts.  He is 9-0 since joining the Brew Crew, the rest of the staff is 23-21.  C. C. also leads NL pitchers in innings, strikeouts, ERA, quality starts, and, of course, complete games since July 8, his first start.  If the voters demure from giving C. C. his second consecutive Cy, due to his late arrival, they might consider adding him the somewhat weaker MVP field.  A pitcher has not won the MVP since Dennis Eckersley did it in 1992 and, in the NL, the fete has not been accomplished until 1968.  But by all accounts, C. C. immediately became a clubhouse leader in Milwaukee and, of course, one cannot argue with the team's performance on the days he pitches.  They are 11-1 in his starts.  Few candidates have the advantage of such a stark assertion of "value."

Grady Sizemore - CF - Cleveland Indians

The Indians, despite a second-half resurgence, are not likely to finish within ten games of the postseason.  However, their leadoff hitter is leading the AL in Runs Created and his stats are certainly comparable, even superior, to those of Dustin Pedroia, as he will probably get close to 100 runs and 100 RBI, as well as around 35 HR and 40 SB.  Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are the only 30/30 players in 2008, but more importantly, he is among the most intimidating hitters in the league and also plays gold-glove caliber defense at a critical position.  Working against Sizemore is not only his team (which is going to be a winning franchise after all), but also his .268 batting average.

Joe Mauer - C - Minnesota Twins

Speaking of defensive contributions...Mr. Mauer has made only two errors in upwards of 1000 innings this season, has the best CS% in the AL, and captains the young Minnesota staff which has surprisingly kept the Twins in competition deep into the season.  Oh, and he is also hitting .326 with a .416 OBP.  Much like 2006, Justin Morneau has Mauer to thank for keeping his name in the MVP conversation.

Kevin Youkilis - 1B - Boston Red Sox

Why are BoSox fans getting behind Pedroia, but not Youk?  Youkilis is better in HR (25), RBI (98), OPS (949), OBP, and SLG.  Moreover, he plays wizard defense at two positions.  He took a few days off early in September to nurse a minor injury, but like Pedroia, he has been one of the few Red Sox available every day and, unlike Pedroia, he's available to play corner spot on both the infield and in the outfield.  He doesn't exactly have Dustin's rugged good looks, but Youkilis has just as much to do with Boston's ability stay in the race.

Arguments could also be made based on Mark DeRosa's versatility, Aramis Ramirez' clutch hitting, Carlos Delgado's resurgence, and Ryan Ludwick's ascendence.  All this aside, however, I'll tell you who I would vote for if they gave me a ballot: Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.