Mis-Lee-ding

Yesterday I heard Peter Pascarelli proclaim that Derrek Lee was "finally" heating up after he hit four homers in three games over the weekend, as the Cubs swept the Indians. The fact is, D-Lee has been hot for six weeks. He had a terrible April, but since May 1 he has been gangbusters, hitting .341 with a 1037 OPS and 10 HR in 35 games. He looks a lot like he did in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 HR and looked like he was about to become a superstar. Maybe he would've too, if he hadn't broken his wrist in April 2006, an injury which has seemingly sapped his power ever since. Despite his slow start, Lee is on pace for 27 dingers, which would be his most since '05.

Derrek is not the only Lee who has been the victim of misconceptions about his play so far this season. If would be easy to look at Cliff Lee's record (4-6) and assume that the surprise 2008 Cy Young winner has fallen back to earth. But, actually, that's hardly the case. His 2.94 ERA is good for 7th in the American League. If you take away two particularly bad starts at the beginning of the season, the story is even better. Since April 16, Lee's ERA is 2.20, which matches Zack Greinke for the best in baseball over that span. On four occasions he's gone eight innings, allowing two earned runs or less, and still ended up with a loss or a no-decision. On Friday he left the game leading 7-3 after seven innings, but his bullpen yielded four runs in two innings (including one of those D-Lee homers) to cost him a win. Hard to fault him for such performances. He's allowed four earned runs (or more) only once in his last thirteen starts. Lee remains a legit Ace, he's just getting the "Matt Cain treatment" from the Indians offense this season.

Speaking of poor run support, I'd like to draw your attention to Ryan Dempster. Like Lee, he went from barely making the rotation to Cy Young contender in 2008, spurring talk that he might be something of a fluke. And, like both Lees, he had relatively slow start, posting a 5.40 ERA in April. However, since the beginning of May Dempster has a 3.09 ERA in ten starts, but only three victories. The Cubs have scored three runs or less in each of his last four starts. That makes it hard on a pitcher.

My point here is that too often we presume that a cold start spells doom for a season and we stop paying attention to a player's progress, especially if that player is playing for a team that is underachieving. Big Papi's resurgence is getting a lot of play or Sportscenter, but not so for the Lees, Dempster, Brandon Phillips, or the Upton brothers. Don't put too much faith in the impressions of commentators (the other night Indians broadcasters were laying into Lee who was in the midst of a 19-game hitting streak, but applauding Alfonso Soriano, who has a 471 OPS in the last month of games) who seem to suffer from severe amnesia in the weeks just before the All-Star break.

The Stream (Week Ten)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

MON: Josh Outman (OAK) v. Minnesota Twins (Anthony Swarzak)

There are a couple interesting possibilities on this limited schedule start to the new week. Kensin Kawakami (v. PIT) and Randy Johnson (@ FLA) both have fairly favorable matchups, as do both of the young pitchers in this game in Oakland. The Twins definitely sport the stronger lineup, but I'm still going to go with the A's Josh Outman, if for no other reason than he is having one of the most under-appreciated performances of the year. Through nine starts, Outman is 3-0 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 42 K in 54 IP. He doesn't get much run support, but pitching at home in the spacious McAffee Stadium he's unlikely to get your week off to a bad start.

TUE: Brad Bergeson (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Jason Vargas)

I'm going with another matchup of youngsters. Vargas has actually be pitching better for longer than Bergeson, but Brad has back-to-back strong starts, including seven solid innings against the Mariners in Seattle for his last start. The Orioles feature the much stronger lineup, so I'm going to hope that 23-year-old Bergesen is starting to come into his own. He has a solid minor-league track record, but don't expect a lot of strikeouts. (Note: If you need K's, I'd recommend Jeff Niemann, coming off a shutout with 9 K against Kansas City, but facing tougher competition at home against Jered Weaver and the Angels.)

WED: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Cleveland Indians (Carl Pavano)

The Royals are no good, but Gil Meche is, although he's struggled a bit with his control thusfar in '09, he still has a 4.08 ERA and 2.95 ERA in his last four starts. As bad as the Royals lineup is, the Indians is even worse now that Grady Sizemore, Asdrubel Cabrera, and Travis Hafner are all on the D.L.

THU: Koji Uehara (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Ryan Rowland-Smith)

In the battle of two pitchers fresh off the disabled list, I'm going to promote Uehara, who was really hitting his stride before being stalled by a minor injury. Again, I like the match-up. The Mariners are dead last in the majors in scoring and the underrated Orioles are 5th in the majors in scoring at home, a number which could go up as Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold have replaced Gregg Zaun (602 OPS) and Felix Pie (595 OPS).

FRI: Kelvim Escobar (LAA) v. San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)

I'm going to stick with the theme (largely because there is a lack of quality options) and recommend Escobar's return to the hill in Anaheim. He gets a weak offense in his first start back in over a year. Escobar didn't do great in his last rehab start at AAA, but overall he managed a 2.30 ERA with 13 K and only 3 BB in sixteen innings of minor-league work. The strikeout rate is especially encouraging and he could be a must-add in all leagues by the end of the week.

SAT: Josh Outman (OAK) @ San Francisco Giants (Randy Johson)

I'm going to drive home my point about how good Outman's been by picking him for the second time. Again, he's got a favorable matchup against a weak offense in a pitcher's park, although his opponent, the Big Unit, is likely to make quick work of the A's lefty-lade lineup as well.

SUN: Jeremy Bonderman (DET) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Ross Ohlendorf)

There's not many favorable pairings for Sunday (although that may change in the next six days). As the schedule is currently set, the day is full of Aces: Santana, Carpenter, Peavy, Zambrano, Beckett, Burnett, Billingsley, Buehrle, Lowe, Cain, Johnson, and Cliff Lee. As a result, it is tough to recommend guys like Brian Tallet, J.A. Happ, and Brett Anderson. Brian Bannister, after getting off to a hot start, has had two straight outing allowing seven earned runs or more. Young Jordan Zimmerman has also scuffled and he faces the best offense in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. Jason Vargas has been superb this season, but I tend to be reluctant to take a guy making his first trip to Coors Field. So...I'm sticking with my them, taking another reclamation project. In Bonderman's case, he will make his first start of the season earlier in the week, so you can ignore this recommendation if things go horribly wrong against the White Sox on Tuesday. But Pittsburgh features a pitcher's park and a mediocre lineup, robbed of its top hitter after last week's trade, so I'll roll the dice.

Swimming Upstream (How did I do last week?)

MON: Joe Blanton (7 IP, W, 3.86/1.00, 7 K)
TUE: Manny Parra (4 IP, L, 22.50/3.25, 5 K)
WED: Randy Johnson (6 IP, W, 0.00/0.67, 2 K)
THU: Gil Meche (6 IP, W, 1.50/1.83, 2 K)
FRI: Doug Davis (6 IP, W, 0.00/1.17, 5 K)
SAT: Anthony Swarzak (DNP)
SUN: Zack Duke (DNP)

Week 9 Totals: 3-1, 29 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 21 K

Four out of five ain't bad. Unfortunately, rainouts and rearranging meant I didn't get a chance to make up for Manny Parra's implosion with a couple more quality starts over the weekend, but still ended up with some respectable totals, especially in the wins department. I'll shy away from Parra for awhile, although I still think he has high-end talent. It was nice to see the Unit wrap up #300 without delay, and against his former team (kind of).

The Next Generation (Part Two)

In my last post I made some glowing comments about Justin Upton, all of which I stand by. But one of the things which sets Upton apart from his peers had nothing to do with his talent. He is, by my measure, perhaps the last premier prospect to be called up for good before his was ready. At the beginning of August in 2007, when he was still just 19, Upton was promoted by the Diamondbacks directly from AA after only about a year and a half of minor league service. Upton showed flashes of brilliance from the start, going 7 for his first 17 with five extra-base hits. But he also struck out a lot and was prone to extended slumps. As recently as this April, many speculated that he'd been promoted too soon (see the post "Down on the Upton" from 4/8/09). Arizona jumped the gun because they were in the thick of a pennant race with the Rockies and Dodgers, Carlos Quentin had been something of a bust (647 OPS in 81 games), and they didn't feel comfortable with a platoon of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon down the stretch (understandably).

Few teams have been willing to resort to such measures in recent years. Last season the Rays refused to bring up David Price until the rosters expanded in September, despite the fact they were in the thick of a three-team race with the Red Sox and Yankees. The Brewers, chasing their first postseason appearance in two decades, resisted the temptation to bring up Mat Gamel, even though their third basemen had combined for the worst average in the National League. The Cardinals, still in the thick of the race, refused to turn to Colby Rasmus whe Rick Ankiel got hurt.

In situations like these we have become accustomed to the phrase "reluctant to start the clock," a reference to the fact that as soon as a team puts a premier prospect on their MLB roster, they begin the countdown to arbitration and free agency. The case of Evan Longoria is now infamous. He signed a six-year deal last May, while still in the minor leagues, was promoted the next day and promptly won the Rookie of the Year and carried the Rays to the World Series. He'll earn about as much over the next five seasons as Ryan Howard makes this year, despite being arguably a more valuable commodity, because the Rays were fastidious in protecting themselves from future arbitration hearings.

Many expect similar contracts to be handed out to this year's round of "clock-starters," Matt Wieters and David Price being the most notable among them, both being recalled, predictably, around a third of the way into the season. They will be joined (or already have been) by Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson, all of whom probably deserved to begin the year in a big-league clubhouse. Here are some potential call-ups to watch:

Andrew McCutchen - CF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The bad news is that if your team is the Pirates there is very little motivation for them to bring up a McCutchen, a Steven Pearce, or a Pedro Alvarez, other than provide a little shred of hope for long-suffering fans and, as such, they will probably hold off as long as reasonably possible. McCutchen is making it hard on them at least. He's hitting .395 in his last ten AAA games for Indianapolis, and is showing speed (10 SB) and power (.500 SLG) so far this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's left-fielders have combined for a 685 OPS (13th in the NL) and the right-fielders aren't much better (732, 11th).

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansan City Royals

Another situation to watch is in Kansas City. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler have been mediocre at 1B and DH. Meanwhile, Kila Ka'aihue appears to be preparing to follow up on his monster 2008 season (.314, 37 HR, 1085 OPS). After a slow start he's built his numbers up quickly (.275, 8 HR, 956 OPS). He's a better defensive option than Jacobs or Butler, as well. The Royals desperately need offense if they are going to stay in the hunt for the AL Central. They are 12th in the AL in scoring.

Tommy Hanson - SP - Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson has a 1.49 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 90 K in 66 IP at AAA. That's sufficiently dominant, I would say. The Braves starters have been very solid (3.93 ERA), but Kensin Kawakami and Kris Medlen have to feel the fire on the back of their neck with each start.

Vin Mazarro - SP - Oakland Athletics

The A's can't hit (last in AL in runs) and they haven't pitched very well either (8th in ERA), so they don't have a lot to gain from loading their rotation with young talent. But that seems to be what Billy Beane is doing, anyway. He's already riding 21-year-olds Brett Anderson (2-5, 5.70) and Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33). Today he announced that they'll be adding the 22-year-old Mazzaro to the mix. Mazzaro has earned it. He's got a 2.38 ERA in nine starts at AAA. Expect that this is the makings of Oakland's next "Big Three," but it may not happen in 2009.

Other Prospects to Watch: Bud Norris, SP (Astros), Neftali Feliz, SP (Rangers), Fernando Martinez, OF (Mets), Justin Smoak, 1B (Rangers), Sean Rodriguez, 2B (Angels), Adrian Cardenas, 2B (Athletics)

The Next Generation (Part One)

A recent post from ESPN fantasy analyst Eric Karabell applauds Justin Upton's recent prolonged hot streak by saying, "Honestly, in a keeper league he's someone I'd target on a similar level to the top young players in the game, like Matt Wieters and David Price."

One would be tempted to gather from such a sentence construction that Karabell is saying something unusual or insightful, when in fact, this has to be seen as an incredible understatement. For one thing, the phrase "similar to the top young players in the game" is highly misleading. The necessity of declaring "similarity" would suggest that Upton is either older than said players or less likely to be considered "top." Justin Upton, despite the fact that he has nearly two full years more major league experience, is, in fact, two full years younger than either Price or Wieters, born August 25, 1987, whereas Price was born August 26, 1985 and Weiters on May 21 of that year. Both Price and Wieters, of course, elected to play college ball, which may or may not have delayed their development as major-leaguers, thus making them seem younger, when quite the opposite true.

So, the question is, what does Karabell mean by "top." Both Upton and Price were #1 overall draft picks (Wieters was #5) and the arrival of all three was highly anticipated. Each was handed a starting job (or closing job in the case of Price in 2008) upon arrival and all must be feeling the pressure of spectacular expectations. But while Wieters draws comparisions with Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench, and Price with C. C. Sabathia and John Smoltz, Upton has been forced to reconcile himself with a trio of outfielder who also entered the majors in their late teens (or very early twenties) with "five-tool" skills and went on to become arguably three of best to ever play the game: Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Ken Griffey Jr. Hype doesn't get any bigger than that.

My point is, Upton has flown under the radar recently because he plays in Arizona, because he battled injuries last season, and because he isn't the most recent call-up, but don't be tempted to rate him in any "level of young players" other than one unto himself (witness the 500-foot homerun he hit early in May). Since April 24th, when he ended a prolonged slump with a double off Tim Lincecum, Justin is hitting .373 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, 6 SB, and a 1153 OPS in 35 games. Mind you, at the age of 21. While Wieters ans Price very well may become perennial All-Stars, Justin Upton very well may be the future of game, dominating our perception of the sport the way Mays did in the 50s and 60s, Griffey did in the 90s, and Bonds did for most of this decade.

Open Letter To The Rangers

Dear Nolan & Ron -

Congrats. I love what you've done with the place. You're threatening to post a team ERA under 4.60 for the first time since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time the Rangers had a winning record. You've still got no shortage of power, but also improved speed and infield defense with the promotion of Elvis Andrus and the conversion of Micheal Young. As of today, you've got the best damn record in the American League. I'm proud of you guys. We all are.

That said, there's a few issues I'd like to address. Don't get me wrong, I admire your skills and trust your judgment. Kudos on the Josh Hamilton trade and the Mark Texeira deal (which netted Andrus [.289, 21 R, leading MLB shortstops in Range Factor, leading AL shortstops in Ultimate Zone Rating], Matt Harrison [3-2, 3.82 ERA, 5.00 K/BB in May], Jarrod Saltalamacchia [respectable platoon catcher], and Neftali Feliz [2-2, 3.93 ERA, 36 K, 34 IP in AAA at age 21]). Letting Milton Bradley walk, it was a tough decision, but the right decision. Ian Kinsler (17th Round, 2003) was a stellar draft pick and getting Nelson Cruz thrown into the Carlos Lee rental was pure genius. Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones have been outstanding inexpensive veteran free agent acquisition.

There's a lot to hang your hats on, but it's only June and there's a lot of baseball left. The Angels managed to stay above .500 even without Lackey, Guerrero, and Santana. They're only five games back. It's time to plug the holes.

First, you're getting a 687 OPS from your first basemen, primarily Chris Davis. That's 200 points below the AL average and 27th in baseball. He's got a lot of pop and a lot of potential, clearly another great draft pick (5th round, 2006), but he needs to re-build his confidence and you can't afford to carry that kind of OPS at a premier position. You've got other options.

Secondly, you need to find a way to keep Josh Hamilton in the lineup. I know, I know, you're off to this great start even though he's missed 15 games and been mediocre when he's been available, but in the long run, he carries the big stick that opposing pitchers fear. Down the stretch, you're going to want visions of Home Run Derby in Yankee Stadium dancing in their heads. Josh is a monstrous talent, but obviously he's a little injury prone. That's what happens when you abuse your body the way he has. Help him out. Don't allow him opportunities to pull his groin diving into the wall in center field. Put him in right. Or at DH. Sure, Blalock is injury-prone too, but he plays a less active position (1B) and is infinitely more replaceable (with Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, and Justin Smoak waiting in the wings).

Tangentially, when did Andruw Jones become a DH? As I recall this is a man who for a long time was spoken of as potentially the greatest center-fielder of all time. I know he's more portly than he used to be, but as recently as 2007 he trailed only Coco Crisp in Ultimate Zone Rating at 22.4. Last season Hamilton was at -17.7. I have a hard time believing that Andruw's decline has been that steep. With a ballpark like Arlington, where every flyball gives your pitcher a coronary, it seems like the graceful glide of Andruw Jones would be a welcome sight, especially if it also helps to protect one of the best hitters in the AL.

Finally, teams do not win pennants with Kevin Millwood as their Ace. Just ask the Braves. As a #2, sure, but not as an Ace. You've got the prospects. You're going to need to be aggressive...but wise!!! Jake Peavy is a flyball pitcher, not right for you. The same goes for Dan Haren. Guys who do make sense for you, who may (or may not) be available include Roy Halladay (53.7 GB% in '08), Aaron Cook (55.9%), Roy Oswalt (50.3%), and Cliff Lee (45.9%). Go get one of them. It'll take the pressure of Millwood and the kids (McCarthy, Harrison, Holland, and Feliz).

Anyway, keep up the good work.

Best of luck,

Hippeaux

The Stream (Week Nine)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

MON: Joe Blanton (PHI) @ San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)

Blanton is coming of his finest outing of the season, an eleven strikeout, seven shutout inning performance at home against the Marlins. He'll get another struggling, strikeout-prone offense, this time on the road, but in a ballpark that minimizes Blanton's most glaring weakness, his propensity for giving up the long ball.

TUE: Manny Parra (MIL) @ Florida Marlins (Burke Badenhop)

I'm tempted to recommend Randy Wolf again, since he hasn't failed me yet, but he's facing off with Dan Haren, so his likelihood of earning a W decreases significantly, even if he pitches well. Much the same may be said for Zack Duke, who's facing Johan Santana. Which leads me to Manny Parra. His overall numbers (3-6, 5.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 46 K, 53 IP) are skewed by a particularly bad outing (3 IP, 8 ER) against an extraordinarily hot Minnesota lineup. Discounting that start, his May numbers are quite solid (3-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K, 31 IP). That includes a solid 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K win over the Marlins on May 12. Milwaukee's offense gives Parra a chance to win, even it he's not perfect.

WED: Randy Johnson (SFG) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

There is the added sentimental bonus of perhaps having the Big Unit on your roster for his 300th victory, but Johnson has pitched legitimately well in his last two outings, striking out twelve in twelve innings of work and allowing only two runs. The Nationals are, believe it or not, the third most productive offense in the NL right now (trailing on Los Angeles and Philadelphia). However, their pitching staff still gives up more than the lineup produces and their team OPS is 30 points lower at home. (Special Note: Adam Dunn v. Big Unit, 1-for-12 with 0 XBH)

THU: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Tampa Bay Rays (James Shields)

Not a lot to choose from on Thursday, but if you need somebody, you might take a gamble on Meche. Tampa has a potent offense, but last year Meche managed a 1.46 ERA in two starts against primarily the same players. Shields has been struggling, so he may have a chance to win even if he can't maintain that pace.

FRI: Doug Davis (ARI) @ San Diego Padres (Josh Geer)

I wouldn't fault you for going with Paul Maholm (@ Houston), Nick Blackburn (@ Seattle), or Barry Zito (@ Florida). But, you should beware of Maholm's history at Minute Maid. Blackburn gets a tough matchup against King Felix. And Zito, though he continues to pitch well, has been the victim of terrible run support. Davis has also. He has quietly pitched well (3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 51 K, 69 IP). Like Blanton, his main weakness is the home run, so PETCO Park suits him well. He is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA there in his career.

SAT: Anthony Swarzak (MIN) @ Seattle Mariners (Garrett Olson)

Swarzak may be the newest addition to the long line of middle-tier pitching prospect turned quality starters by the Twins organization. He's only 23, but went 8-4 with a 2.03 ERA in 90 IP at AAA. He's not overpowering (only 58 K at AAA), but he's looked solid in his first two major league outings (13 IP, 3 ER) and he gets a mediocre offense at a pitcher's park against an opponent, Garrett Olson, who's pretty much proven he has no business pitching in the majors (6.53 ERA in 185 IP). Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer are all red hot. It's a good time to be pitching for the Twins.

SUN: Zack Duke (PIT) @ Houston Astros (Felipe Paulino)

Duke has been downright golden so far this season (5-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 42 K, 72 IP). The only reason he isn't owned across the board is that his team stinks. Thankfully so do the Astros, including their rookie pitcher, Felipe Paulino (1-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 26 K, 36 IP). This makes Duke slightly more favorable than Randy Wolf (v. Phillies), Rich Hill (@ Athletics), and Manny Parra (@ Braves).

Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]

MON: Brett Anderson (W, 6 IP, 1.50/1.33, 4 K)
TUE: Kevin Correia (L, 5 2/3 IP, 9.53/1.76, 5 K)
WED: Kensin Kawakami (L, 5 2/3 IP, 4.76/2.29, 2 K)
THU: Randy Wolf (W, 7 IP, 1.29/1.00, 7 K)
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (L, 5 IP, 12.60/2.40, 1 K)
SAT: Barry Zito (L, 6 2/3 IP, 4.02/1.80, 6 K)
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (L, 5 IP, 7.20/1.80, 5 K)

Week 8 Totals: 2-5, 39 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 30 K

Season Totals: 8-8, 120 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96 K

Not a lot to hang my hat on from last week, except perhaps Brett Anderson's unheralded performance on Monday. Hopefully many of you, like me, didn't have to take chance on D-Train and De La Rosa over the weekend. This is a good time to point out that, despite an atrocious record, Baltimore sports a pretty potent offense and should probably be avoided against spot starters. I had hoped that Dontrelle would follow up on a couple of stellar outing. It was not to be.

The Stream (Week Eight)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

MON: Brett Anderson (OAK) v. Seattle Mariners (Jakubauskas)

It's hard to argue with Brian Tallet right now (2.78 ERA in last four starts) and Jonthan Sanchez has been quite good at home (2.08 ERA in three starts), but both are sizable risks as well. The Blue Jays are going through their first offensive drought (and I can't quite forget that five starts ago Tallet surrendered ten earned runs). Sanchez gets a weak offense (Atlanta), but not as weak as his own, and faces off against an imposing Ace (Javier Vazquez). Therefore, I'm going to roll the dice on young Brett Anderson, coming off the best start of his young career (6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 B, 5 K) on the road against a strong offense (Tampa Bay). This time he'll be in friendlier confines and gets a struggling lineup and a converted long reliever (6.10 ERA). Could this be his coming out party?

TUE: Kevin Correia (SDP) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Scherzer)

There's not a lot of good choices. You could go with Ricky Romero making his first start off the D.L. Nick Blackburn and Aaron Cook are coming off strong outing, but match up with tough lineups (Red Sox and Dodgers). I'll take Correia against the D-Backs, who have about half-a-dozen regulars hitting below the Mendoza line. Correia has a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. Maybe it's a sign that he's starting to stretch it out.

WED: Kensin Kawakami (ATL) @ San Francisco Giants (Johnson)

Wish somebody from the group of Brett Myers, Trevor Cahill, and Manny Parra was throwing on Tuesday (cross fingers). Kawakami is coming off of four straight quality starts (1.88 ERA), including an eight inning shutout masterpiece his last time out. Good way to build momentum for facing the league's worst offense.

THU: Randy Wolf (LAD) @ Chicago Cubs (Wells)

As I said of Wandy Rodriguez last week, it won't be too much longer that Randy Wolf is available on the waiver wire, what with his great overall numbers (2-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 46 K) and even better in his last five starts (1-0, 1.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 23 K).

FRI: Dontrelle Willis (DET) @ Baltimore Orioles (Bergeson)

The D-Train appears to be back on track. He's allowed only three earned in his last thirteen innings. His last two starts have been at home, so leaving the friendly confines is justifiably cause for concern. However, the Orioles have a measly 620 team OPS against left-handers this season (only Oakland is worse) and are not the most patient group, which bodes well. If you aren't comfortable boarding this train again just yet, you might check out Sean West, the new addition to the Marlins rotation.

SAT: Barry Zito (SFG) v. St. Louis Cardinals (Pineiro)

It's hard to recommend a mediocre lefty against any lineup featuring Albert Pujols. But, aside from "The Machine," the Cardinals lineup is pretty meager right now, with Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus still sidelined. Zito has posted a 2.36 ERA at home thusfar.

SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (COL) v. San Diego Padres (Gaudin)

It was a a tough call between De La Rosa and Gil Meche (v. White Sox), so I'm going with the guy who faces the weaker offense (even if it is at Coors Field). If you need Ks, Jorge's your man, with 46 K in 46 IP so far this season.

Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]

MON: Randy Wolf (7 2/3 IP, ND, 2.35/1.04, 2 K)
TUE: Barry Zito (8 IP, L, 2.25/1.13, 3 K)
WED: Paul Maholm (6 IP, ND, 1.50/1.17, 7 K)
THU: Bartolo Colon (2 IP, L, 4.50/4.50, 1 K)
FRI: Rich Hill (5 2/3 IP, ND, 3.18/1.24, 6 K)
SAT: Kyle Lohse (8 IP, W, 0.00/0.50, 6 K)
SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (DNP)

Week 7 Totals: 1-2, 37 1/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25 K

This week I'll hang my hat on terrific ratios and some bad run support, and thank my lucky stars that seven of the eight runs Big Fat Bartolo Colon allowed on Wednesday were unearned.

"He's done-er than done." - Matthew Berry

I'll admit it, I'm unfairly picking on Matthew Berry because he's somebody I read and listen to consistently. So, clearly, I often agree with or benefit from his analysis. But in this instance he joins a whole chorus of journalists who have been so eager to declare Big Papi's six week slump evidence of a steep, inevitable decline, impossible for him to bounce back from. This declaration troubles and offends me, frankly.

Also, let me be clear, a 2-for-5 night with a homer doesn't necessarily mean that the slump is ended. Ortiz fans will need a couple more of these before they can show genuine relief. But it's a start.

What bothers me most about Ortiz's situation is the so-called "scarlet letter" of steroids, discussed here by Bill Reynolds, which is now being affixed to a player for whom there isn't really even circumstantial evidence. People will say that I'm in denial about the prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball. That's not true. I'm willing to concede their ubiquity. Which is part of why (and this is what really bothers people) I really don't care. I don't believe that steroids/PEDs are especially dangerous when taken by grown men of their own accord (for starters, check out the documentary "Bigger, Stronger, Faster"). I don't think baseball should be held to a different standard than say the NFL or any other forum for professional athletics. I don't think that any substance diminishes or explains the exceptional talents of a Barry Bonds or a Manny Ramirez. I don't think baseball history is in any way tarnished, that is, any more tarnished, than it's been from any number of ball-playing assholes from Cap Anson to John Rocker. This is just another (very entertaining) episode in the sport's history, which, like American history, is filled with glorious imperfections.

But, back to Ortiz.

What bothers me about the treatment of Big Papi is that it is the most publicized instance of the trend towards explaining any drastic drop in production by insinuations about steroids. This is deeply ironic (or tragic, if you're a player) because now you can be presumed guilty if either a.) you are too productive in your mid to late thirties or b.) you are suddenly unproductive in your mid to late thirties. Basically, if you don't follow the loosely-defined "normal" career path, than you are fair game for "juicing" speculation.

Another issue here is Ortiz's physique. It used to be that steroid speculation was fueled by extraordinary physical changes. Either an eruption of muscles on a formerly slim(mer) player (Brady Anderson, Sammy Sosa, McGwire, etc.) or a sudden atrophy in the wake of more stringent testing (Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, etc.). As somebody who has experienced his share of drug-unrelated weight fluctuations, I have real problems with this hypothesis. Regardless, in Ortiz's case, no transformation is evident. In fact, he has exactly the build (insert favorite euphemism here) which we would expect for both a.) the kind of player who accumulates sizable home-run totals in the prime of their career (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.) then drops off drastically as their immensity catches up with them (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.).

Meanwhile, it has somehow become "naive" to blame some of Ortiz's struggles on his wrist injury. We should note, however, that the torn tendon sheath which sidelined Ortiz relatively briefly in 2008 has ended seasons for players like Nick Johnson, Billy Wagner, and, most recently, Rickie Weeks. Wrist injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from. Derrek Lee, for instance, has yet to display the power he showed prior to his disastrous injury in 2006. A wrist injury in 2003 limited Adrian Gonzalez to only 5 HR (in the minor leagues) that season and only 12 at AAA in 2004. Those are hardly the kind of power numbers you would expect for a player of his caliber at that level, which may be why he was traded twice (from the Marlins to the Rangers to the Padres) before he became the consistent 30+ HR threat he is today.

Might Ortiz have reached, at age 33, a point in his career where age and unfortunate injuries make him better suited to hit fifth or sixth, rather than third or fourth? Possibly. May he be prone to more slumps and perhaps even need to be benched against tough left-handers? Possibly. But then, the same can be said of Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr. Is there also the possibility that he might, like Carlos Delgado or Jason Giambi, make the purveyors of his "doneness" eat their words by stringing together several more prime (or, at least, semi-prime) seasons? Quite possibly.

The Stream (Week Seven)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

All the rainouts this past week could effect the projected rotations in the days to come, but here's how I'm forecasting:

MON: Randy Wolf (LAD) v. New York Mets (Tim Redding)

One of the Nats top prospects, Ross Detwiler, is coming up to make a spot start against the lowly Pirates, but I've definitely got more faith in Randy Wolf, even though he faces a pretty hot offense. Wolf hasn't allowed more than one earned run in each of his last four starts and he's got a 2.60 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season. Plus, while Detwiler faces somebody who's been pitching well so far this season (though I don't trust him), Ross Ohlendorf, Wolf squares off with Tim Redding in his first start coming off injury. Unless he's had a total arm transfusion, I don't think we can expect very much from Redding.

TUE: Barry Zito (SFG) @ San Diego Padres (Chris Young)

I may live to regret this, but I'm going to jump back on the bandwagon now that Zito has made five straight quality starts. It helps that San Diego's home OPS is 683, easily the worst in the NL, so even if Young outpitches Zito, I doubt he'll disastrously effect my WHIP and ERA. Shairon Martis pitches at home against Pittsburgh. That would be my #2 option.

WED: Paul Maholm (PIT) @ Washington Nationals (John Lannan)

There are several good pitchers on Wednesday, but not a lot of good matchups. Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Cecil, and Matt Harrison are all pitching well, but Way-Rod is matched up with Yovani Gallardo, Harrison gets super-hot Justin Verlander in Detroit, and Cecil is a rookie lefthander pitching at Fenway for the first time. Therefore, I'm going with Mr. Maholm against the Nats. I should point out that the Nats have a pretty good offense, comparable to the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, and Cardinals thusfar, and John Lannan has a respectable 4.00 ERA, so this is not exactly a slam dunk pick. (If he is available in your league, you might note that Chris Carpenter is coming off the D.L. against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. It's risky, obviously, because he might be rusty and the Cubs are very hot right now, but worth noting.)

THU: Bartolo Colon (CWS) v. Minnesota Twins (Nick Blackburn)

Big Fat Bartolo Colon is having himself a respectable season so far, especially in Chicago. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at Cellular Field. He blanked the Twins for six innings the first time he faced them, though their offense has improved since then with the return of Joe Mauer and hot streaks from Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede.

FRI: Rich Hill (BAL) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

In intraleague matchups it's usually preferable to have the AL player pitching in NL park. Although I don't know that this qualifies, since Rich Hill has made exactly one start in the AL. He looked pretty good in it, beating Kansas City, so I'm willing to take a flyer on him. (Neither is available in my league [partly because I own one of them full-time], but Rick Porcello faces off with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. Both are young studs in the midst of hot streaks. Porcello has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts, while Ubaldo has allowed only six earned over his last four starts. These guys are still available in many shallow leagues.)

SAT: Kyle Lohse (STL) v. Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)

This is another tough one. Armando Galarraga is at home against the Rockies, but although he started the year very well, he's pitched in four straight disasters and may be in danger of losing he spot in the rotation when Jeremy Bonderman returns. I'm moderately fond of both Koji Uehara and Shairon Martis, but they match up against each other, which probably favors Uehara, but only slightly. Instead, I'm going to roll the dice on Kyle Lohse, who's had two straight disasters against strong offenses on the road, but is a solid 3-1, with a 3.20 ERA at home.

SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) v. Texas Rangers (Brandon McCarthy)

I'm tempted to go with Joel Pineiro, who, like Lohse, has been very good at home (2.46 ERA). There are arguments for both Randy Wolf, agains, and Matt Palmer (4-0, 3.38), who square off against each other in L.A., as well as for Dave Bush (2-0, 3.83) in Minnesota. But I'm going to gamble again on Wandy Rodriguez (4-2, 1.90), who probably shouldn't even be available (and may not be by Sunday). I'm hoping that his 0.67 ERA at home outweighs the fact that he will be facing one of the league's hottest teams. However, if I have a relatively safe lead on Saturday night, I don't make this start.

Swimming Upstream [How did last week's choice's fare?]

MON: Bronson Arroyo (7 IP, W, 6.43/1.43, 5 K)

TUE: Manny Parra (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 8 K)

WED: Brian Bannister (5.2 IP, L, 3.18/1.06, 3 K)

THU: Wandy Rodriguez (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 11 K)

FRI: Brett Cecil (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 3 K)

SAT: Brett Myers (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 8 K)

SUN: Koji Uehara (5 IP, ND, 7.20/1.60, 3 K)

Week 6 Totals: 5-1, 43 2/3 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 41 K

This is about as good as you get via streaming. If you were in a good position and refrained from using Uehara on Sunday, it's even better. Something tells me that Way-Rod, Cecil, Parra, and Myers may not be a part of the free agent player pool for a whole lot longer.

The New Yankee Stadium (Ad Nauseum?)

The good news (for seamheads at least) is that the prevalence of homers at the new Yankee Stadium has promoted the discussion of "park factors" in the mainstream sports media and even, in some cases, outside of sports.  NPR's Talk of the Nation: Science Friday hosted a roundtable discussion this past week (check it out).  While we must continue to temper our discussion until more data has been accumulated, as Jonah Keri wisely points out, what is not being properly discussed (at least in the numerous reports I've read) is why a home-run friendly ballpark is not a good thing for the Bronx Bombers.  I've heard consistent speculation that perhaps the Steinbrenners slightly altered the dimensions and constructed the park in order to promote offense and sell tickets.  But, of course, as we've all heard way, way too many times, what sells tickets in New York is winning.  And home-run hitting parks are not particularly conducive.

Since Oriole Park at Camden Yards (generally considered the first of the "retro parks" which not predominate) was opened in 1992, baseball has introduced 20 new ballparks (18 brand-new stadiums, and 2 expansion sites) which are currently in use.  From that group, I looked at the teams that played at the most friendly hitter's park and pitcher's parks.  I left out the preponderance of parks which were either more or less neutral or haven't been open long enough to show a consistent advantage.

Hitter-Friendly: 

Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) - 16 seasons,  4 winning seasons, 1 Div., 1 Wild Card, 0 Pennant, 0 World Series 

Cincinnati Reds (Great America Ball Park) - 6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) - 14, 5, 0, 2, 1, 0

Detroit Tigers (Comerica Park) - 9, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0

Houston Astros (Minute Maid Park) - 9, 7, 1, 2, 1, 0

Philadelphia Phillies (Citizen's Bank Park) - 5, 5, 2, 0, 1, 1

Texas Rangers (Ballpark at Arlington) - 14, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0

73 seasons, 28 winning (38.4%), 7 Division Titles (9.6%), 6 Wild Cards (8.2%), 13 Playoff Appearances (17.8%), 4 Pennants (5.5%), 1 Championship (1.4%)

Pitcher-Friendly:

Cleveland Indians (Progressive Field) - 14, 9, 7, 0, 2, 0

Florida Marlins (Dolphin Stadium) - 15, 5, 0, 2, 2, 2

Los Angeles Angels (Angel Stadium) - 12, 9, 4, 1, 1, 1

San Diego Padres (Petco Park) - 5, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0

San Francisco Giants (AT&T Park) - 12, 8, 3, 1, 1, 0

Seattle Mariners (Safeco Field) - 9, 5, 1, 1, 0, 0

67 seasons, 40 winning (59.7%), 17 Division Titles (25.4%), 5 Wild Cards (7.5%), 22 Playoff Appearances (32.9%), 6 Pennants (9.0%), 3 Championships (4.5%)

Obviously, many other things factor into a team's success, but when you look at this relatively large cross-section of data you can see why the Yankees and their fans would prefer that their stadium not be "Coors Field east" as some have been calling it.  Teams that play in pitcher's parks are 20% more likely to have winning records, almost twice as likely to make the playoffs, and three times as likely to win World Series.  

There may be several reasons for this.  There is the cliche, "good pitching beats good hitting," a motto emphasized by teams like the Giants and Padres who have stayed competitive in many recent seasons despite have very mediocre offenses.  

There is also the pragmatic conclusions voiced general managers in Texas and Colorado, that the top free agent pitchers don't like to go places which are inherently dangerous to their ERAs.  So, teams with hitter's parks end up overpaying for guys like Mike Hampton, Kevin Millwood, and Eric Milton.  Meanwhile, teams with pitcher's park get deals on pitchers trying prolong or rebuild their careers, guys like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Carl Pavano, and Randy Wolf.  And young pitchers can have their confidence ruined by fly balls turning into tape-measure blasts.  Just ask David Nied, Jeremy Bonderman, or Brandon McCarthy.

Chicks dig the long ball, right?  Inflated offensive numbers also means inflated salaries for hitters.  Not only does a team like Colorado have to overpay to lure pitchers, but they have to hand out obscene contracts to keep players like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, or Larry Walker.  Great hitters all, don't get me wrong, but playing in say, San Francisco, for the bulk of their careers would've cost each of these guys millions of dollars.

While the general managers in pitcher-friendly environments can compensate to some extent by building around speed, defense, and gap-hitters and have consistent success, a similar formula has not yet been found for the hitter's park.  Perhaps last year's Phillies will be the model.  However, the struggles of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Brad Lidge to begin this season may be another sign of how difficult it is to win consistently in a launching pad.  If Yankee Stadium maintains its current homer-happy pace, I expect their will be serious renovations in the offseason.  That may be the easiest and more inexpensive way to prevent themselves from becoming a power-laden .500 team.  

Perpetual Underdog Syndrome

It happens at least once in every game they play.  A relatively plain-looking Caucasian player who's less than six feet tall and weighs less than two-hundred pounds approaches the plate and a broadcaster loses his cool, he begins to gush.  "This guy really knows how to play the game," he says.  "What a scrappy player," he says.  "Check this out, kids.  Anybody can be a big-league ballplayer...if you work hard enough.  It's just amazing, isn't it, Chuck?"  

Is it.  Is it so amazing?  Is Craig Counsell's career really evidence that flat-out tenacity is all you need to make it to the major leagues.  Don't listen to these patronizing asses.  Craig Counsell and David Eckstein may have the physical stature of muppets, but that doesn't mean they aren't superlative athletes.  They merely suffer from the social stigmatization of Perpetual Underdog Syndrome, or P.U.S.  

Counsell is playing in his fourteenth major-league season.  He has two World Series rings.  Eckstein was a World Series MVP, has been to a pair of All-Star games, and also has a pair of rings.  Dustin Pedroia, perhaps the most tragic P.U.S. sufferer, was an All-Star, won the Rookie of the Year, an MVP, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series ring, all in his first two years in the league.  Yet, Tim McCarver never ceases to be amazed that a 5' 9" leprechaun can hit the ball over the monster.  Tim, I've got news for you, two of your favorite players, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays, were only 5' 11".  Does that two inches make all the difference?  It's time to stop treating small, white players like they're medal-winners at the Special Olympics.  These guys are legit.  Give them their due.

Current P.U.S. Sufferers:

Craig Counsell, David Eckstein, Mark Ellis, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Freel, Aaron Hill, Brandon Inge, Aaron Miles, Dustin Pedroia, Marco Scutaro, Ryan Theriot   

Three Zeros

As of the start of play on Friday, 74 pitchers had thrown 40+ major-league innings so far this season. Of them, only three had yet to allow a home run. The first probably won't surprise you. Zack Greinke has surrendered only a dozen extra-base hits (eleven doubles and one triple) in 53 innings so far. The other two have been getting far less press.

Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros

Way-Rod has been a popular streaming option for a couple of seasons, mainly because of his home/road splits.

'07
H: 6-3, 2.94
R: 3-10, 6.37

'08
H: 5-5, 2.99
R: 4-2, 4.34

'09
H: 2-1, 0.67
R: 2-1, 3.24

As you can see, while Wandy continues to dominate at home, his numbers on the road have also been getting progressively better. He strikes out close to a batter an inning and has improved his ground-ball ratios in each of the last three years, no doubt assisting his limitation of the long ball. Here's the bad news. Houston has a mediocre offense (last in the NL Central in run production) and a bad bullpen (5.03 ERA) and Wandy has only pitched one shutout in his career, so he's not a safe bet to win 15 games, even if he continues to pitch excellently. Wandy is also, already, 30-years-old, so for him to improve dramatically upon his 3.54 ERA from last season would be highly unusual. On the other hand...

Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies

With the exception of his HR Allowed, Ubaldo's stats for 2009 don't look that great. However, in his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 5.00 K/BB rate. The latter number is important because that has always been Jimenez's Achilles heel. Since he came up during Colorado's amazing stretch drive in 2007, Jimenez is 4-10 with a 5.24 ERA in games in which he walks four or more. In his other 37 starts he is 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA. That's an especially good ERA when you consider that Ubaldo has to make half his starts at Coors Field.

More importantly, Ubaldo is still only 25, has dynamic stuff, including a fastball that touches triple digits and a classic Darryl Kile curveball. If this is evidence, as I believe it is, that Ubaldo moving towards consistent control of his arsenal, he has a much, much higher ceiling than Rodriguez, and possibly as high as Greinke.

In the end my point is this: THESE GUYS ARE STILL AVAILABLE IN MOST LEAGUES. Pick them up pronto. They have the kind of high-reward potential that is necessary to win championships.

Haliburton 1863

While I am certainly not one to downplay the extent to which corporate greed has influenced the political landscape of the last decade, I am consistently irritated by the implication that this is somehow a new development, that G.W. Bush was "the worst President ever" and "corporate oversight" is at an all-time high/low (depends on how you interpret the phrase). American history is, in fact, filled with shysters, hucksters, and innovative megalomaniacs wearing collars of every color. The most recent example I've come upon, thanks to a brilliant piece of popular journalism circa 1954 by Stewart H. Holbrook, is the origin of the adjective shoddy. Before it meant "a person or thing having the delusive appearance of superior quality," it referred specifically to "a material made of reclaimed wool," generally an inexpensive way of making rags. During the Civil War, however, government contractors for the Union recognized they could turn a higher profit by using shoddy to make blankets. Similarly, they discovered the lucrative aspects of boots made largely of paper, rations made of diseased livestock, and firearms made of solvent metals. Sound familiar? When such practices were uncovered in the wake of the conflict, journalists co-opted the term as a way of describing the politicians and industrialists who allowed these practices to proliferate, as in "Bush's shoddy diplomacy"(NY Times 8/1/08) or "the Pinnacle group's shoody underwriting"(NY Times 4/15/09).

The Delgado Factor

I've already written about the inevitability of Big Papi's resurgence, but I'd like to offer a recent analogy. Last season, coming off a serious injury, Carlos Delgado was declared "done" at 36. Scouts said his bat speed was gone, that he couldn't pull the ball, and New York sportswriters drilled Willie Randolph for keeping him in the middle of the lineup. On May 6 he was batting .216 with a 670 OPS and only 4 HR (Ortiz is currently at .222, 653, and, famously, 0). From that point on, Delgado hit .284 with a 919 OPS, 34 HR, and 99 RBI, finishing 9th in the NL MVP voting. No doubt he would have finished higher if the Mets hadn't collapsed and missed the playoffs. Don't allow a prolonged slump after an injury convince you, as it has many of the pundits of Baseball Tonight, that Ortiz's skills are in dramatic decline. In his last 16 games he is already showing signs of life, with a modest 782 OPS, 9 extra-base hits, and a nine-game hitting streak. Last night against the Yankees he hit a pair of doubles and walked twice. Ortiz may never again be a 40-50 HR guys, as he was in his late twenties, but he can still be an RBI machine, peppering balls off the Green Monster and hitting in the center of a potent lineup.

Why the Jays are this year's Rays...

This can't be for real, right? It is just a matter of time until they fall back to fourth place, where they belong, right? Maybe the best fourth place team in baseball, but fourth place nonetheless. Nobody predicted this, right? Wrong.

If you check my column from March, "The Raging Jays," you'll find that I've been on the Blue Jays bandwagon for quite some time. In fact, last year I predicted that they would finish ahead of the Yankees (although I didn't figure that would still mean third place, behind the Rays). And I see no reason to second-guess myself now. In fact, it is quite possible that there is nowhere to go but up. After all, Toronto's AL-best record has been achieved without a single win from Jesse Litsch or David Purcey (the #2 and #3 starters going into the season). It was managed despite the fact that B. J. Ryan blew a pair of saves and couldn't find 90 MPH on the radar gun before he went to the D.L. and despite the fact that the team's best hitter, Alex Rios, has started the year hitting .248 with a 670 OPS.

Sure it may be fair to suggest that it is unlikely that Aaron Hill (.376, 5 HR, 989) and Adam Lind (.320, 5 HR, 957) will maintain their current paces. And 29-year-old rookie Scott Richmond (3-0, 2.70) isn't going to go undefeated. The Jays will suffer some cold streaks and they will be battling for a playoff spot down to the very end. But that's my point, they aren't going away. Yesterday they brought up Robert Ray and Brett Cecil to replace Purcey and Brian Burres, who had combined to go 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA in seven starts. Cecil hasn't exactly been gangbusters so far this season, but last year he went 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 K in 118 IP at three minor-league levels. He's only 22 and undoubtedly one of the top pitching prospects around. Ray is a little older (25) and not as dominant (132 K in 167 IP in 2008), but still a legitimate candidate for the back-end of a big-league rotation. It is reasonable to expect that they will be improvements on the pitchers they replace. Later this month Litsch, Ryan, and Ricky Romero will return from the D.L., further bolstering the pitching corps. Around the same time Shaun Marcum will begin a minor-league rehab assignment, putting him on course to rejoin the team in the second half. Marcum may not immediately be the pitcher he was before Tommy John (9-7, 3.39, 1.16 WHIP in '08), but he gives the Jays an additional option at the back-end of the rotation or in the middle innings. Similarly, Dustin McGowan, another major contributor in the staff that was best in baseball last season, could be ready to pitch sometime late in the year. It looked like a rag-tag bunch going into the year, now there appears to be some depth, although more injuries and/or setbacks could still be prohibitive.

Depth is of course essential to any team attempting to survive in the toughest division in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay would not have made it to the postseason last year if it hadn't been for contribution by guys like Jed Lowrie, Willy Aybar, Justin Masterson, and Eric Hinske, all of whom stepped up and played well when major contributors missed time. The Jays bench will need to do the same and early indications are that they can. Kevin Millar has hit .350 in limited ABs. Jose Bautista is a hot prospect who never lived up to his billing in Pittsburgh, but could play 2B, 3B, or OF and hits for decent power. Right now he is hitting .310. John McDonald is, of course, one of the flashiest defenders around, more that an adequate replacement for Aaron Hill or Marco Scutaro defensively, which is critical.

Remember, the Rays were among the top defensive teams in baseball last year, led by great gloves up the middle. The Jays, currently leading the AL in Fielding Percentage, are similarly constructed. Rios (#2), Hill (#7), McDonald (#10), Rod Barajas (#4), and Scott Rolen (#5) are all rated as top ten fielders at their position according to John Dewan's FIELDING BIBLE, and Scutaro, Vernon Wells, and Lyle Overbay are just shy of being premier defenders as well. Only Travis Snider, well hidden in left field, can truly be considered a butcher.

Besides Cecil and Snider, their are a couple prospects to look out for later in the season. J. P. Arencibia is currently catching at AAA. In two stops last year the 23-year-old first-rounder out of Tennessee hit 27 HR with an 850 OPS. He could see time if Barajas struggles, or even at DH if Lind or Snider were to go down. Toronto's first-round pick from last year, David Cooper, also showed considerably skills in his half-season debut, hitting .333 with a 901 OPS. If he can continue at close to that clip at AA, he could make his debut in the second half.

Perhaps most importantly, after years of suffering under the ineptitude of John Gibbons, who was blessed with arguably better teams, the Jays have turned the reigns over to Cito Gaston, who has quite clearly improved the hitting approach throughout the lineup and has shown belief in his talented young players. First place is a familiar position for Gaston, who guided the Jays to their back-to-back championships in the early 90s. Like Joe Maddon of the Rays, he has captivated the entire clubhouse and has the Jays focusing on factors they can control and not thinking about the Yankees and Red Sox. That said, a major test comes in the middle of May when Toronto plays nine straight against the Yanks, Red Sox, and White Sox, arguably the three best clubs in the AL.

(Look, an entire column about the Jays and I didn't even mention Doc Halladay, who, in case you haven't heard, is the best pitcher in baseball.)

April showers...

Over the last couple of days in various leagues I have acquired Brandon Phillips, Chris B. Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  One may assume this suggests I've been very actively seeking trades, when in fact all I've had to do is make my daily trip to the waiver wire.  These are some pretty exceptional players to find in the free agent pool and their previous owners will undoubtedly be kicking themselves a few months from now.  Although Brandon Phillips is the extremest example I've every seen, every spring I find myself staring in wonderment at the booty available to me because some sap is too impatient to wait for the inevitable warm weather hot streak from his high-round draft pick.  First and foremost, don't be that guy!!!  Secondly, even if you can't pick up one of these players for the paltry price of Mike Fontenot or Fred Lewis, you may be able to exploit a competitor's impatience via trade.  Here are a few slow-starters I would recommend targeting.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

There is a whole lot of hubbabaloo over at the world-wide leader about how scouts are concerned about David Ortiz.  Those of us with memories longer than six weeks, however, recall a similar stream of Big Papi pessimism last April and May.  In his first 16 games in 2008 Ortiz his .111 with one lonely long ball.  However, from mid-April until he hurt his wrist at the beginning of June, Papi hit .313 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBI in 38 games.  Throughout his career April has been Ortiz's weakest in both AVG and OPS.  Although he still hasn't gone deep in 2009, he is 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and 4 RBI in the last three games.  The numbers are going to be there in August, which means that now is the best possible time to go get him.

Alexei Ramirez - SS - Chicago White Sox

Let's face it, winter in Cuba and winter in Chicago are very different seasons.  Last April the White Sox mysterious off-season acquisition had a laughable 354 OPS.  He took over as the starter at second on May 16.  From that point on he hit .304 with an 833 OPS.  There are probably owners out there who are prepared to declare Alexei a fluke.  The way I see it, his April OPS in 2009 is 60 points higher than in '08 and I think that's a reasonable improvement to expect in the month which follow.

Brandon Phillips - 2B - Cincinnati Reds

I've never disguised my man-crush for Phillips, so my faith shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.  One thing particularly stands out to me about his statistics so far.  He's already taken eleven walks.  In the entirety of '08 he had 39 walks, which was a career high!  When a hitter dedicates himself to working counts he often suffers a slump, but in the long run it facilitates major improvements.  As such, this slump could actually be a good sign for Phillips owners.

    

New York, New York

Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com this morning feature a discussion of the early returns from Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Granted, we shouldn't be quick to judge a park on two weeks in April, but 17 HR and 49 R in three games is enough to make even the most disciplined statistician whistle through his gap teeth. It's even more remarkable when you consider that one of those games started as a pitcher's duel between C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee that was locked in a 1-1 tie through six innings.

Sure part of the Indians 22-run explosion on Saturday can be attributed to the struggles of Chien-Ming Wang (6 IP, 34.50 ERA), who's looked like a batting practice pitcher in each of his last three starts. He got equally pummeled in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly a hitter's haven, and Baltimore last week.

In the long run, if Yankee Stadium continues to play like Coor's Field (or worse!?!), it will have major fantasy repercussions. The stock of Yankee's hitters - already pretty high - goes up, while the stock of Yankee's pitchers goes down. Besides Wang, who shouldn't be starting in any leagues until he proves himself capable of getting past the second inning, I am particularly worried about A. J. Burnett. While Sabathia's flyball rate has been consistently declining in recent years, from 41.0% in 2004 to 31.7% last season, Burnett's is headed in the other direction, from an exceptional 22.3% in 2005 to 32.0% in '08, which may be why he averaged 21 HR allowed in his last two seasons with the Blue Jays. The good news for the Yankees is that both Sabathia and Burnett, as well as Joba Chamberlain, have exceptional strikeout rates, something which should be immune to park factors.

The immediate impact for fantasy owners is that you should consider benching mid-tier starters when they visit the Yankees, something you might have been tempted to do regardless. And while most of the Yankee regulars are already owned in most leagues, you may consider picking up a guy like Melky Cabrera, or trading for guys like Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter, all of whom may be on the verge of an unexpected power spike. Also, visiting players could be good waiver wire acquisitions. For instance, Asdrubel Cabrera, probably unowned in most shallow leagues, went 5-for-8 in two games in New York this week, with a homer, four runs, and five RBI.

Across town, the early observers of Citi Field are predicting it to be considerably advantageous to pitchers. Things may change as the weather warms up, but that could be great news for Oliver Perez. Perez has surrendered 20+ HR in every season since 2003, which is part of the reason we remain skeptical about him in spite of his obvious talent. A subtle decrease in his homer rate could make a big difference in his ERA and win totals. To a lesser extent, the same may be said of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.

While the dimensions of their ballpark will have little to no impact on the value of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, none of whom rely heavily on the homer, it may be the right time to unload Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church. They are both off to hot starts, but Citi may be particularly hard on left-handed power hitters both offer other risks as well. Delgado is, of course, aging, though showing no major indications of decline yet, at 37. Church is an injury risk and in danger of losing at-bats to Gary Sheffield, who is determined to make the Tigers pay for releasing him and is, more importantly, a right-handed power threat, something that the Mets are missing (outside of David Wright). Sheff will almost certainly start against lefties so long as he is healthy and effective, and if he proves he's still the same player he was two years ago, it is only a matter of time before he "demands" full-time player status. In deep leagues, I recommend picking him up RIGHT NOW.

As I said earlier, we should be cautious in making too much of a week's worth of games. However, fantasy leagues are won by being aware of factors that others may not pay attention to.

Everyday, I Love Elijah Dukes

Although Brad Lidge had his way with him with the game on the line in the 9th, Elijah Dukes still had a pretty solid game on Monday, going 2-for-5 with an RBI double and a solo HR. He also made a run-saving catch in deep right on a Ryan Howard line drive. Although Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson were named official starters to begin the season, they have each made 24 plate appearances while Dukes is barely behind with 23. In those at-bats Dukes has equaled their combined production in HR, RBI, and total bases, while hitting .381. And he is undoubtedly the best defensive player of the bunch, featuring the range of a centerfielder and a very strong arm.

If that isn't enough to suggest that the Nationals are invested in Dukes as an everyday player, one need only check out their broadcasts. Washington Nationals promos feature him as prominently as any player, including Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. And they should!!!
Although Dukes played only 81 games in 2008, he lead the team in OPS (864) and walks (50), was only one off the lead in HR (13), and was second in SB (13). With the possible exception of Zimmerman, he is clearly their most promising young offensive threat, a lethal combination of speed, strength, and, notably, plate discipline.

One might expect, considering their are so many questions about his "maturity," that Dukes would be a bit raw in terms of his approach, but quite the opposite is true. In the first 138 games of his MLB career, Dukes has an 0.669 K/BB ratio. Maintained over a full season, that rate would be good for top 25 in the NL. And there's a good chance it could go up. During every season of his minor league career, Dukes walk rates rose while his strikeout rates fell, often drastically. It is not beyond possibility that he may one day be among the rare players who hits for significant power and walks more than he strikes out. He also has power to all fields and sprays the ball around, hitting according to the situation. Which bodes well for the fact that when he plays, Dukes has been batting 5th, just behind Zimmerman and Dunn, so he is likely to get as many RBI opportunities as anybody in the Nats lineup.

While he may continue to get days off against the league's toughest righthanders, I don't expect Dukes role to be considerably limited. And I agree with ESPN's Matthew Berry, who is predicting that he is likely to go 25/25 as soon as this season, with the long-term possibility of 30/30 or better (although his SB% in the minors and his injury history suggest he may never be a premier basestealer).

Perhaps most importantly, Elijah has developed a solid relationship with Washington manager Manny Acta and is clearly making an effort to manage his anger and not allow off-the-field problems to keep him from realizing his massive potential.

Sunday Night Notes (Week One)

• Alfonso Soriano began the ESPN game of the week, on cue, with his 51st career leadoff homer, only two behind Craig Biggio (53) for 2nd all-time. It is Soriano's fourth homer this week. The Fonz is the king of streaky hitters, so this isn't exactly abnormal. What is unusual is that Soriano is a notoriously slow starter, especially since joining the cold-weather Cubs. In April of '07 and '08 he combined for only 2 HR. A hot start, as well as a healthy midsummer (cross your fingers), could allow Soriano to put together the kind of season Chicago envisioned when they signed him to an 8-year/$136 Million deal.
  
• The Indians didn't get their first win until this afternoon, partially due to the fact Cliff Lee has looked very mediocre coming off his Cy Young award. I don't worry too much about him or Fausto Carmona. The young man who will need to solidify their rotation is Anthony Reyes, who was the winner against Toronto earlier today. Reyes was never appreciated much by Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, but he has exceptional movement and the potential to dominate if he can develop adequate control. Today he allowed only three walks and three hits in six innings and was a bit unlucky to yield four earned runs, all but one in his final inning of work. This is an especially good sign because the Blue Jays have a very patient lineup and was probably the hottest hitting team during the first week (46 R, .318 AVG, and 10 HR in 7 games).
  

Down on the Upton

As I was watching Ubaldo Jimenez mow through D-Backs today, I had the distinct displeasure of listening to a couple of homer-happy Colorado broadcasters lay into Justin Upton, who, to be fair, looked just as bad as anybody in the Arizona lineup against what may be the best stuff in the NL (98 MPH heater, 85 MPH change, nasty slider and curve). Arizona may have done a disservice in bringing Justin to the bigs at the age of 19 with the hype that he was the second-coming of Ken Griffey Jr. However, I not so sure that he isn't. One must remember that Upton is still only 21. At an age when most "top prospects" are just beginning to climb the minor league ladder, Upton is in his third major-league season. When Griffey Jr. was 20, he had an 847 OPS. Upton's OPS last season was 814. Upton showed could plate discipline in his brief minor-league career, but has not quite translated it to the big leagues. Last season he struck out 121 times in just over 400 plate appearances. But he was also dealing with injuries, and he still hit 15 HR and had a respectable .353 OBP (that was third-highest among D-Back regulars, by the way). We're going to see some slumps still and I'm not sure he's ready to match the 100 RBI and 926 OPS Junior Griffey put up in his "junior" season, but Upton is very much on the verge of his breakout campaign. He may benefit from Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Tony Clark, and Chad Tracy cutting into his playing time because it encourages Bob Melvin to give him occasional days off, especially against tough righthanders. Look for Upton to hit around .275 this year, with a .375 OBP, 20+ HR, and an OPS around 850. That's pretty good for a guy bought his first beer less than eight months ago.